Sat TV Trends: 12th April 2025
The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.
While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Willie Mullins won 12 months ago with Macdermott and is mob-handed again in 2025.
The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live and four at Newbury. Meaning we've NINE live ITV races on Saturday.
NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1.25 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
20/21 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Had won between 2-5 times before
19/21 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
18/21 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
18/21 – Having their first run of the season
16/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/21– Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
14/21 – Had raced at Newbury before
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Had won a Group race before
7/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Trainer by William Haggas (3 of the last 12)
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden
2/21 – Won by the Johnston yard
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 10
9 of the last 12 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower (inc last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
2.00– Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
19/21 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
18/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
18/21 – Having their first run of the season
17/21 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/21 – Drawn 5 or higher
11/21 – Had won over 7f before
10/21 – Won last time out
9/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/21 – Had won at Newbury before
8/21 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 9)
4/21 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/21 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/21 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
2.35 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV
19/21 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
19/21 – Having their first run of the season
17/21 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/21 – Won between 2-4 times before
16/21 – Placed favourites
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
k14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/21 – Had won a Group race before
10/21 – Won last time out
10/21 – Had won over 7f before
9/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/21 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/21 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/21 – Irish-trained
2/21 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
8 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
3 of the last 10 from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
3.12 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
21/21 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
20/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
18/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
18/21 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
17/21 – Won over at least 1m before
16/21 – Rated between 85-98
15/21 – Unplaced last time out
13/21 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/21 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/21 – Had run at Newbury before
10/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 11)
2/21 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 10)
2/21 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 5)
1/21 – Won last time out
7 of the last 10 carried 9st 1lb or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Metal Merchant (12/1) won the race in 2024
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
1.10 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f RTV
20/20 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
18/20 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/20 – Rated between 127-139
14/20 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top four last time out
12/20 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/20 – Had run at Ayr before
11/20 – French bred
11/20 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
4/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 7 years)
6 of the last 7 carried 11st 2lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Jockey Danny McMenamin has won the last 2 runnings
Tommy’s Oscar (15/2) won the race in 2024
Malystic (8/1) won the race in 2023
1.43 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV
13/13 – No more than 3 chase wins
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
12/13 – French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
9/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Had run at the track before
3/13 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
6 of the last 10 winners aged 7
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st 8lbs or more
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
2.15 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV
21/21 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/21 – Aged 7 or younger
17/21 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
17/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/21 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
16/21 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/21 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Rated 135 or higher
13/21 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
12/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Irish bred
6/21 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/21 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/21 – Irish-trained winners
Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
2.55 – UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f
11/11 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
8/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/11 – Aged 6 years-old
6/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 years-old
9 of the last 10 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV
21/21 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/21 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/21 - Came from a different stable
18/21 - Carried 11-1 or less
17/21 – Aged 8 or older
17/21 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
16/21 – French or Irish bred
15/21 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/21 – Had won over 3m or further
14/21 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/21 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/21 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/21– Won last time out
7/21 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/21 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/21 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/21 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/21 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 8 winners)
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 19/1
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