Tag Archive for: Scottish Grand National Trends

Sat TV Trends: 12th April 2025

The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.

While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Willie Mullins won 12 months ago with Macdermott and is mob-handed again in 2025.

The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live and four at Newbury.  Meaning we've NINE live ITV races on Saturday.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.25 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
20/21 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Had won between 2-5 times before
19/21 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
18/21 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
18/21 – Having their first run of the season
16/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/21– Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
14/21 – Had raced at Newbury before
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Had won a Group race before
7/21 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Trainer by William Haggas (3 of the last 12)
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden
2/21 – Won by the Johnston yard
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 10
9 of the last 12 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower (inc last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.00– Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

19/21 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
18/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
18/21 – Having their first run of the season
17/21 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/21 – Drawn 5 or higher
11/21 – Had won over 7f before
10/21 – Won last time out
9/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/21 – Had won at Newbury before
8/21 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 9)
4/21 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/21 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/21 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.35 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

19/21 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
19/21 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
19/21 – Having their first run of the season
17/21 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/21 – Won between 2-4 times before
16/21 – Placed favourites
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
k14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/21 – Had won a Group race before
10/21 – Won last time out
10/21 – Had won over 7f before
9/21 – Winning favourites
9/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/21 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/21 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/21 – Irish-trained
2/21 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
8 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
3 of the last 10 from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

3.12 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

21/21 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
20/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
18/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
18/21 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
17/21 – Won over at least 1m before
16/21 – Rated between 85-98
15/21 – Unplaced last time out
13/21 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/21 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/21 – Had run at Newbury before
10/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 11)
2/21 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 10)
2/21 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 5)
1/21 – Won last time out
7 of the last 10 carried 9st 1lb or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Metal Merchant (12/1) won the race in 2024

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.10 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f RTV

20/20 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
18/20 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/20 – Rated between 127-139
14/20 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top four last time out
12/20 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/20 – Had run at Ayr before
11/20 – French bred
11/20 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
4/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 7 years)
6 of the last 7 carried 11st 2lbs or more
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Jockey Danny McMenamin has won the last 2 runnings
Tommy’s Oscar (15/2) won the race in 2024
Malystic (8/1) won the race in 2023

1.43 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV

13/13 – No more than 3 chase wins
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
12/13 – French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
9/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Had run at the track before
3/13 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
6 of the last 10 winners aged 7
7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st 8lbs or more
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

2.15 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

21/21 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/21 – Aged 7 or younger
17/21 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
17/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
17/21 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
16/21 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/21 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Rated 135 or higher
13/21 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
12/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Irish bred
6/21 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/21 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/21 – Irish-trained winners
Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times
4 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.55 – UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f

11/11 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
11/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
8/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/11 – Aged 6 years-old
6/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 years-old
9 of the last 10 winners aged between 6-8
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

21/21 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/21 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/21 - Came from a different stable
18/21 - Carried 11-1 or less
17/21 – Aged 8 or older
17/21 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
16/21 – French or Irish bred
15/21 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/21 – Had won over 3m or further
14/21 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/21 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/21 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/21– Won last time out
7/21 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/21 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/21 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/21 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/21 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 8 winners)
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 19/1

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2025 Scottish Grand National Trends

The Grand National bandwagon continues this weekend as we get set for the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year will now be run on Saturday 12th April 2025, at Ayr racecourse.

As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.

Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last week's Aintree version, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.

Trainer Willie Mullins won the race for the first time with the 6 year-old MacDermott - as the Irish handler added the race to the Aintree Grand National he won a week earlier with I Am Maximus.

There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.

However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.

For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 21 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 17 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or older?

Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats

21/21 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
19/21 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
18/21 - Came from a different stable
18/21 - Carried 11-1 or less
17/21 – Aged 8 or older
17/21 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
16/21 – French or Irish bred
15/21 – Finished in the first three last time out
15/21 – Had won over 3m or further
14/21 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/21 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
14/21 – Carried 10-9 or less
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/21– Won last time out
7/21 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/21 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/21 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/21 – Winning favourites (or joint)
2/21 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/21 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 3 winners)
2/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 8 winners)
2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1

Recent Scottish Grand National Winners

2024 - MACDERMOTT (18/1)
2023 - KITTY'S LIGHT (4/1 jfav)
2022 – WIN MY WINGS (13/2 cfav)
2021 - MIGHTY THUNDER (8/1)
2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)

 

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Scottish Grand National Trends

You might still be celebrating having the recent Grand National winner at Aintree or contemplating what could have been if you felt your selection was unlucky.

However, the Grand National bandwagon continues in April as we get set for the final one on the jumps horse racing calendar – the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year will now be run on Sunday April 18th  at Ayr racecourse - moved from Saturday 17th April due to the funeral of Prince Philip

As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.

Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last weeks, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.

There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.

However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.

For example…………………Did you know that 16 of the last 17 winners ran within the last 57 days (Al Co won in 2014 after 104 days off), while 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or older?

So, to help we’ve got the main ‘plus and minus’ 17 year trends to apply to the Scottish Grand National runners – by just following these simple rules you’ll at least have the make-up of past Scottish Grand National winners on your side when placing your bets.

Weight Watchers: The main cut-off point here is 10st9lbs. We’ve seen 12 0f the last 16 winners carry 10-9 or less in weight. However, it is worth noting that 3 of the last 6 winners carried 11-3 or more, while last year’s hero – Joe Farrell – won with 10st 6lbs.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must-have when scanning down the entries – after all the race is over 4m! This is backed-up with 10 of the last 16 winners having won previously over 3m1f or further, while 5 of the last 16 had won over 3m7f or longer in their careers.

Recent Form: Coming into the race off the back of a fairly recent run, plus a decent finish last time out is another thing to look for. In the last 16 years a massive 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 6 in their most recent race, while 5 of the last 16 won last time out.

Age Concern:  Experience is often seen as a big plus in any staying race but it’s not so key here. Yes, you really need to be 8 or older as we’ve seen 14 of the last 16 winners aged between 8 and 11 years old. We have, however, seen a few 7 year-olds take the race more recently (2013 and 2016) so you can’t totally rule out this age group but with just one 12 year-old (or older) winning since 1947 then really we can put a line through any of the older statemen in the race.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Scottish Grand National is always a competitive race and this year is expected to be no different. However, with just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 runnings then it’s not always been a kind race for punters that like to support the market leaders.

Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Scottish Grand National stat can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. So, despite not many market leaders winning we’ve still seen 10 of the last 16 winners hail from the top 7 in the market, while 3 of the last 16 winners actually returned 15/2. We have had 12 of the last 16 winners return a double-figure price though (75%), including last year’s winner – Joe Farrell (33/1) - but if this is linked into the fact most have come from the top 7 horses in the market then really the price range to focus on is more like 10/1 to 16/1.

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 30 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. With ALL of the last 16 winners having raced in the last 57 days then we can quickly rule several out here. Yes, it’s always wise to give this stat a 2 or 3 day leeway for obvious reasons but we should still be able to knock out a fair few.

 

Recent Scottish Grand National Winners

2020 – No Race (Covid)
2019 – TAKINGRISKS (25/1)
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)

Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats

16/17 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
15/17 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
14/17 – French or Irish bred
13/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
12/17 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 3m1f or further
11/17 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
10/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/17 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/17 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/17 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 winners)
1/17 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 21/1

 

 

 

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