Alounak lifts Old Newton Cup at Haydock

Alounak bounced back to form to claim an impressive victory in the bet365 Old Newton Cup at Haydock.

A Group Three winner in Germany and runner-up in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, Andrew Balding’s charge appeared dangerously well handicapped on the pick of his form.

However, he lined up for this prestigious handicap with plenty to prove, having never threatened to land a telling blow on either of his two previous outings this season at Ascot.

Sent off at 14-1 in the hands of three-times champion jockey Silvestre de Sousa, Alounak arrived on the scene travelling powerfully inside the final two furlongs before powering three lengths clear in the rain-softened ground.

Win O’Clock narrowly beat my Frankel to the runner-up spot.

“He’s done it very well out there,” said the winning rider.

“He travelled really well throughout the race. I was confident when I went back through his form as I knew he would go on the soft ground.

“I don’t think he’s at his best in this ground, but he’d run some good races in the past and he’d come down in the handicap, so it was all suitable for him.”

Chil Chil too hot in Chipchase

Chil Chil came with a rattling late run to take the Group Three honours in the William Hill Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.

Andrew Balding’s five-year-old mare had plenty to do with a furlong left, but she produced a telling turn of foot when given the office by Silvestre de Sousa.

Storming past long-time leader Good Effort, Chil Chil (15-2) galloped on strongly to land the spoils by three-quarters of a length with Diligent Harry a further half-length away in third place.

Good Effort made the running from his stands’ rail draw while the well-fancied Diligent Harry was up with the pace in the centre of the track.

The 5-2 favourite Khuzaam appeared to have very chance but never threatened when dropped down to six furlongs for the first time.

Good Effort kept up the gallop but had no answer to Chil Chil, who was cut to 20-1 from 40-1 for the July Cup with Betfair and Paddy Power and 7-1 from 14-1 for the Stewards’ Cup with both firms.

Balding said: “I’m delighted, she’s a mare who has improved a lot since last year.

“She’s very effective on a sound surface and I’m delighted she’s now a now Group-race winner.

“We couldn’t run her in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last week because of the soft ground and it’s worked out well.”

On future plans, he added: “I think we’ve probably blown our cover for the Stewards’ Cup now given the weights haven’t been published yet.

“If the ground came up fast, I think we’ll probably have a crack at the July Cup.”

De Sousa was also impressed, adding: “She’s a very talented mare. She has disappointed a few times, but when she’s right she’s very good.

“She was very lean early on last year but she’s different now, she’s grown up a lot mentally and physically. Andrew has done a great job, shown a lot of patience with her, and it’s paid off today.”

Birthday sparks Redcar celebrations

Good Birthday gained handsome compensation for being relegated from first place at Newmarket by lifting the Racing TV Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar.

Andrew Balding’s five-year-old was demoted to second for bumping initial runner-up Master The Stars, but there was no problem this time.

Silvestre de Sousa always had Good Birthday (13-2) close to the pace set by First Impression, sitting patiently before making his move over two furlongs out.

He kicked for home before the final furlong and held the staying-on 100-30 favourite Makram to land the spoils by half a length.

“I’m really pleased. Obviously he was a little unlucky last time. The visor has really helped him and Silvestre has given him a lovely ride,” said Balding.

“I’m thrilled to win an important race. I won it early in my training career (with Chantaco in 2006) and I remember my dad winning it years ago. It’s a nice race to win.

“They’ve done a good job with the prize money and it’s worth going up there.”

Balding will now look at more big handicaps such as the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes and the John Smith’s Cup for the gelding, owned by King Power Racing.

“It just depends. If he stays further we might look at the Duke of Edinburgh at Ascot, but he’ll get a John Smith’s Cup entry. We’ll just see what the handicapper does.”

De Sousa was completing a double after steering 4-6 favourite Greek Kodiac to victory for Michael Bell in the Join Racing TV Now Selling Stakes.

Runninwild stunned punters when striking at 200-1 in the Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Median Auction Maiden Stakes on his third start after two uninspiring runs.

The Ann Duffield-trained three-year-old had produced little on the track at either Thirsk or Carlisle, but demonstrated some of the spark he has shown at home under different ground conditions.

Always close up, Runninwild asserted in the final furlong to win cosily by three-quarters of a length from newcomer Maywake under David Allan.

Runninwild scores at Redcar at the massive odds of 200-1
Runninwild scores at Redcar at the massive odds of 200-1 (Tim Goode/PA)

“I don’t think I’ve ever had a 200-1 shot in my life. I’ve had a few placed horses at really big odds, but I don’t think we’ve ever had a winner at that price,” said Duffield.

“We’re not surprised he’s won because we’ve always liked the horse. It’s just that he had a poor introduction in his first couple of runs.

“His first run at Thirsk he fell out of the boxes and the jockey couldn’t get him motivated. It’s so difficult when they’re so far behind. He’s a big, gangly horse.

“Then the second time he ran, David (Allan) gave him a lovely ride except the ground was soft and claggy at Carlisle and he hated it, so today was the first opportunity to show what he might do on the track.

“At home he’s always shown promise, so we’re not surprised he’s won. I’m more surprised he was allowed to go off at 200-1. Having said that, he did have two ordinary runs to start with.”

The North Yorkshire handler believes Runninwild has the scope to build on this performance.

“He’s a big, gangly horse so he might keep improving. That’s what we’re hoping,” she said.

“As for his distance you could drop him in trip. George (Duffield, husband) rides him at home and he’s always liked him. He’s of the opinion we could stay at six furlongs or drop down to five. He has got plenty of speed and he’s still learning.”

There was a 100-1 winner at Leicester where the Mick Appleby-trained Katie’s Kitten got off the mark at the 13th attempt in the Graham The Plumbers’ Merchant Fillies’ Handicap in the hands of 3lb claimer Theodore Ladd.

Seventh heaven for Stoute as Queen powers to Middleton success

Queen Power took Sir Michael Stoute’s record of Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes winners to seven when powering home in the Group Two contest at York.

The five-year-old mare, owned by King Power Racing, pulled away from her four rivals in the closing stages to win for the first time in two years, after a string of consistent efforts in smart company.

Chamade set a reasonable gallop, with Queen Power settled nicely in third place for Silvestre de Sousa.

Making her move early in the straight, the 6-4 favourite overtook the pace-setter and pulled away to score by eight lengths. Chamade stuck her task gamely to hang on for second place.

Assistant trainer James Savage said: “We thought she was going to be a really nice filly two years ago.

“Today everything went right for her, she relaxed and got into a lovely rhythm early doors which meant everything went very smooth.

“She’s always threatened to do something like that and it’s great to see her do it.

“She’s a Group Two winner now regardless, so we’ll try to improve on that. She’s going to make a fantastic broodmare so that is in the back of our minds, but we’ll try to improve on this.”

De Sousa said: “A combination of the ground and the pace of the race all contributed. She travelled nicely and I never felt in danger, she settled really well. When I asked her she put the race to bed very quickly.

“I think 10 furlongs is her trip, but that’s up to Sir Michael over where she runs.”

Ralph Beckett, who trained Queen Power to win a Newmarket maiden as a two-year-old, said of the runner-up: “She ran a really sound race.

“As ever, while it’s lovely ground, it’s a shade on the quick side for her – she’s better with the mud flying.

“I’m very pleased with her and ground will dictate our plans going forward.”

Roger Varian was pleased with the performance of third-placed Cabaletta.

He said: “She ran a nice race and looks like she’s crying out to go back up in trip.

Silvestre de Sousa and Queen Power stretch clear
Silvestre de Sousa and Queen Power stretch clear (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

“I thought for her seasonal debut it was a nice run. She was little bit fizzy and a little bit gassy in the preliminaries and she’ll be better for the run.

“She galloped all the way to the line, it was just that when they quickened she didn’t have the tactical speed to go with them.

“She stayed on and and hopefully when she goes back up in trip she’ll be finding the winner’s enclosure again.

“She’ll have various options, including the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock.”

Bangkok bags Easter Classic honours

Bangkok asserted in the closing stages to land the odds in the Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships at Lingfield.

Andrew Balding’s five-year-old showed he had recovered from his trip to Riyadh for the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup, six weeks ago to justify his short price.

Bangkok (5-6 favourite) had to work hard, but he was a willing partner for Silvestre de Sousa.

Bangkok following his Easter Classic victory
Bangkok following his Easter Classic victory (Neil Morrice/PA)

Making his move just before the home turn, De Sousa closed the door on his main market rival, Forest Of Dean. That have him a crucial edge, but Bangkok still had to catch Palavecino.

His touch of class and stamina enabled Bangkok to get the verdict by a neck from the 8-1 shot.

It was an All-Weather Championships double for Balding, who won the Marathon with Ranch Hand, and an across-the-card treble after the victory of Napper Tandy at Newcastle.

Bangkok (left) proved too good for Palavecino
Bangkok (left) proved too good for Palavecino (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Balding said: “I thought Silvestre gave him a masterful ride in keeping Forest Of Dean in at the right time.

“He’s a very tough horse that has travelled all over the place in recent months, and it’s great that he can bring his A-game to the table today.

“He hasn’t quite hit the heights we thought he might after he won the Classic Trial at Sandown, but he settles so well that I think he might get a mile and a half now.

“Silvestre said we should drop him back to a mile, but the most likely race for him is the Huxley Stakes at Chester, as long as the ground is all right.

“Bangkok only has a Listed penalty, so he is eligible for lots of races including Group Threes without a penalty, so we will have a lot of fun trying to pick races which he can be competitive in.”

Fit again De Sousa delighted to return at Lingfield

Silvestre de Sousa is raring to get back in the saddle at Lingfield on Wednesday when he returns following a three-month absence.

The former champion jockey had planned to have surgery on a troublesome shoulder injury in December, but the operation had to be delayed when he contracted Covid-19.

He returns on Always Fearless for Richard Hannon in the Bombardier “March To Your Own Drum” Handicap .

Royal Ascot winner Art Power (leading) is among Silvestre de Sousa's leading hopes for more success this summer
Royal Ascot winner Art Power (leading) is among Silvestre de Sousa’s leading hopes for more success this summer (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

“I’m really looking forward to getting back at it – it’s been a while,” said the Brazilian.

“At the time I was supposed to have my operation I caught Covid – and by the time I was better, they then couldn’t do it for a few more weeks.

“Basically I missed my whole winter, so it was frustrating. I was planning to rehab and then go to Hong Kong and Dubai before the season starts here.

“On the other side I’ve spent a lot more time with my family than I would usually, so that has been nice. It’s been different, but good to spend the winter at home for a change.

“I can build myself back up to full fitness before the season really begins. Last season I was in a bit of pain most days – now I should be back to normal.”

Looking ahead to the summer, De Sousa, who is retained by King Power Racing, picked out one horse he is looking forward to riding the most.

“You’d have to say Art Power is the main horse this year, he’s top of the list,” he said.

“When you look at the races he ran last year when he was just a three-year-old, being beaten just a length on Champions Day, you’d have to think he can improve again.”

Johnny Drama edges Wild Flower thriller

Johnny Drama completed a four-timer with a narrow victory in Kempton’s Listed Unibet Wild Flower Stakes.

Andrew Balding’s King Power Racing five-year-old held on tenaciously when tackled deep in the final furlong by Sinjaari, who was moving back up in trip for last year’s winning combination of William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

Silvestre De Sousa always had Johnny Drama in a prominent position, close to the pace set by Sextant.

The 15-8 winner took over just after the Kempton cutaway, with market rival Sinjaari still back in sixth place, and established enough of an advantage to prevail by a short-head even as the 6-4 favourite closed with menace.

Sextant was a length further back in third.

De Sousa was riding his 99th winner of 2020 on the much-improved Johnny Drama.

He told Racing TV:  “I got myself on the inside, a mile out, and I felt the pace was just steadying up.

“But when I came to the junction, he was rolling – and I couldn’t see any dangers coming, until the last 50 yards I saw the other horse near me.

“But he fought, and really wanted to win tonight.

“I’ve found he’s really got better since he’s had his tongue tie. He still struggles a bit with his breathing – you have to fill him up every furlong – but when you ask him a question, he really wants to do it for you.”

Diamond sparkles to land Listed contest at Newmarket

Ventura Diamond capped off her season in style with a tenacious success in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Bosra Sham” Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

The Richard Fahey-trained Dandy Man filly, who was making her seventh appearance of the campaign, saved her best until last by striking gold in the six-furlong Listed prize to form the opening leg of a double for Silvestre de Sousa.

Hitting the front approaching the final quarter-of-a-mile, the 7-2 joint favourite showed plenty of heart to get the better of a sustained late battle with Meu Amor before scoring by a neck.

Tom Palin, spokesman for winning owners Middleham Park Racing, said: “She has got a wonderful attitude and there are plenty of times she could have thrown the towel in there and wanted to quit.

“Going down, Silvestre didn’t feel the same at Leicester, so you can mark that run up massively as she still managed to do that and show that willing attitude.

“We’ve been quite hard on her in the last two months going to Doncaster, Redcar, Leicester and here and they were all in soft ground, but she has got that attitude and she keeps going, but I think we’ve now seen enough of her.”

A return to the Rowley Mile could be on the cards for Ventura Diamond next season, with Palin earmarking the Group Three Nell Gwyn Stakes as a possible target.

He added: “We will pop her away and dream of something sexy in the spring.

“We’ve not tried her over seven yet and whether we keep her to sprinting, we will see, but it is a lovely problem to have in six months time, working out what Group Three we go for.

“She could be the type for a Nell Gwyn or Fred Darling, and she deserves being pitched into something like that.”

Hughie Morrison who was on the mark with Whitehaven in the Proud To Support British Racing Handicap
Hughie Morrison who was on the mark with Whitehaven in the Proud To Support British Racing Handicap (Mike Egerton/PA)

Whitehaven (11-10) followed up back-to-back wins at Yarmouth to complete De Sousa’s brace when prevailing by five and a half lengths in the Proud To Support British Racing Handicap.

De Sousa said of the Hughie Morrison-trained winner: “He did really well with the low weight. From a mile out I let him stretch and he loves this ground.

“I was going the speed I wanted to go and the horse responded well.”

Roger Varian celebrated a winner with his first runner for owners Opulence Thoroughbreds thanks to the debut success of Beau Jardine (4-1), who landed the Follow MansionBet On Instagram British EBF Novice Stakes by three-quarters of a length.

The Newmarket handler said: “He has done a couple of bits of work on the soft turf and he has gone well through the ground, so I didn’t think that would be a problem for him.

“Eoin Walsh said he was a bit green early on from the gates, but apart from that he tracked into the race well and did it nicely, so I’m pleased with him.

“I’m very pleased for the owners, Opulence Thoroughbreds, who are run by George Gill and he is the first horse they’ve had with me, so I’m delighted they have got off to a winning start.”

Ainsdale made light work of testing conditions on his return to six furlongs to open his account for the campaign in the MansionBet Watch And Bet Conditions Stakes.

Clifford Lee, winning rider, said of the Karl Burke trained 11-8 shot: “He loves these conditions.

“We didn’t go quick early doors which suited him as he does run over five, but he has done it well in the end. “

Power is with former champion De Sousa at Newmarket

Silvestre de Sousa rode a Power-packed 214-1 treble at Newmarket on Friday – with all his winners owned by his King Power Racing bosses.

King Power was the brainchild of Leicester City owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, who tragically died in a helicopter crash two years ago.

Former champion De Sousa got off the mark for the afternoon aboard Tim Easterby’s filly Winter Power in the Group Three Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes.

Following up a recent win in a Listed race at Ayr, the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle ran out a clear-cut three-length winner at 10-1.

“She won quite well at Ayr and has bounced back in great form. She has done really well and won very easily,” said De Sousa.

Happy Power comes away to win the Challenge Stakes
Happy Power comes away to win the Challenge Stakes (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Happy Power (7-2) was next on the scoresheet for the Brazilian, in the Group Two Godolphin Stud & Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes.

Andrew Balding’s grey was winning for the third time in succession.

“I was really disappointed with him at the beginning of the year as I thought I had a really good horse for this year, but he has just taken a long time to get going. He now feels like he is flying and is in top form,” said De Sousa.

De Sousa then closed the card in great fashion when winning on Roger Varian’s Angel Power (100-30 favourite) in the Group Three Darley Pride Stakes.

Trebles for jockeys are not that rare – but it is certainly out of the ordinary for all three to be Group races and all to come with similar names.

Many of the King Power string have ‘Power’ in their name and it was undoubtedly a day for De Sousa to remember fondly.

He said: “It is good for the boss and King Power Racing.

“I never get many rides in Group races so when they come I have to make the most of them.”

Power too strong for Challenge rivals

Happy Power streaked clear of Pogo up the hill to win the Godolphin Stud & Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes at Newmarket.

Silvestre de Sousa, already on the scoreboard with Winter Power in the Cornwallis Stakes, was keen not to let Pogo get loose on the front end.

That looked a wise decision as the front two dictated the race throughout, with De Sousa always looking confident on Andrew Balding’s grey.

The 7-2 chance arrived at HQ on the back of winning his two most recent races, at Salisbury and a Group Three at Goodwood.

Up in grade again to a Group Two, he assumed control from Pogo with over a furlong to run and streaked clear up the hill to win by a length and a half.

Glorious Journey stayed on from the rear to claim third.

De Sousa said: “I was really disappointed with him at the beginning of the year as I thought I had a really good horse for this year, but he has just taken a long time to get going. He now feels like he is flying and is in top form.

“Andrew’s horses are running well and he is just following the wagon. We’ve always liked him and Andrew had found a couple of easy options for him, but today he has proved he is a nice horse.

“We thought we had him right at the beginning of the year, but he is a horse that has probably taken a long time to get 100 per cent fit. He ran really well first time, then his next couple of runs were disappointing. He wasn’t tailed off, but he wasn’t good enough to win – since Salisbury it looks like he has found his way.

“He likes the ground. It is soft and on the slow side and it maybe just tired the other horses out. That race at Salisbury made you realise there was a little more in the tank than what he had been giving.

“Mentally there is always huge improvement when a horse wins their first race easily. When they come home and enjoy the race, you know there is improvement.

“He is in top form and he probably shouldn’t miss the chance to go there (Champions Sprint at Ascot on October 17).”

Balding believes a swift return at Ascot next week is a “possibility”.

He said: “I’m delighted with that. It has just taken him a little bit of time to find his feet at the beginning of the season, but that is three excellent wins now and he has really got his mojo back.

“He got stuck in the ground at Haydock first time out and we probably ran him a bit quick back on his third start, but he has come right now and is high class.

“He was fourth in the Sussex Stakes last year and he won a Ganton very well, so we knew he was a talented horse – he just had that slow start to the year.

“We will confirm him for the Champions Sprint on Monday and make a decision later in the week, but it’s a possibility. I think a stiff six on soft ground would be fine for him.”

Wichita prevails in Park Stakes thriller

Wichita and Frankie Dettori edged a thrilling duel with One Master to win the bet365 Park Stakes by short head at Doncaster.

Dettori, riding for Aidan O’Brien in the famous Coolmore silks, just edged the verdict in a photo finish after Wichita and One Master had served up a terrific tussle in the final furlong of the Group Two contest on Town Moor.

Wichita was narrowly denied himself at this meeting 12 months ago, when a half-length runner-up to the reopposing Molatham in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes.

He was also a close second in this year’s 2000 Guineas – but this time, it was Wichita’s turn as he doubled his Group tally, winning as the 11-4 favourite.

Dettori, who had finished only eighth on Wichita in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time out, said: “He ran a bit flat in Deauville, but he was a fresh horse today – he was bucking going to the start.

“I was always confident, but when (One Master’s jockey) Tom (Marquand) jumped so quickly at me I wasn’t so sure on the line.

“He deserves it – he was second in the Guineas and has been a model of consistency. I’m pleased he’s put his head in front today.

“I think seven (furlongs) is spot on for him.”

One Master, a previous Group One winner for William Haggas, had to settle for second at 7-2, with Molatham (3-1) back in third.

Stone Of Destiny had earlier produced a telling late rattle up the stands side to deny the well-backed Danzeno in the bet365 Portland Handicap.

Andrew Balding’s sprinter, drawn high in stall 18, still had some running to do when the 11-2 favourite scampered clear a furlong out in a typically-competitive renewal of the historic race.

But Silvestre de Sousa had things in hand as Stone Of Destiny got to the front and stayed on for an emphatic success at 16-1 – by a length and a quarter from Danzeno, with 25-1 shot Yimou and Arecibo (15-2) a further two lengths and three-quarters of a length back in third and fourth.

Stone Of Destiny, making his 27th racecourse appearance, was visiting Doncaster for the first time.

Balding said: “Everything needs to drop right for him, as it does with a lot of these sprint handicappers.

“We felt this would be his type of race – his ideal distance and a strong pace – and it’s worked out well. Silvestre gave him a lovely ride.”

De Sousa added: “He’s run in a lot of these competitive sprint handicaps in the past.

“I didn’t want to get there too soon, but I knew I had a clear run travelling on the right-hand side. I could see I was going to get there.”

Matthew Flinders justified 5-2 favouritism in the opening Sky Sport Racing HD Virgin 535 Handicap.

Ridden by Marquand for Ed Walker, Matthew Flinders was previously a course winner over 10 furlongs back in June.

Reverting to a mile this time, the three-year-old arrived from off the pace to lead in the last furlong and comfortably keep Magical Morning and Frankie Dettori at bay by a length and a quarter.

Marquand was impressed with the winner, and anticipates significant further improvement.

“He still showed signs of relative immaturity,” he said.

“He’s such a big horse he’s not quite learnt where all his toes are yet.

“I could have ridden him any which way, and he still would have won. He’s a nice horse with a big future.”

Lone Eagle (3-1) gave De Sousa a double with a game victory in the Matthew Clark Nursery Handicap.

The Martyn Meade-trained youngster made most of the running and rallied splendidly when headed, to outstay 11-8 favourite Legend Of Dubai by a length and a quarter.

Jim Crowley was out of luck in the St Leger with Hukum, but at least ended the day with victory on Away He Goes (100-30) in the Magners Dark Fruit Cider Handicap.

Ismail Mohammed’s four-year-old strode past Mankayan in the last half-furlong to score by three lengths.

Crowley said: “It was lovely. He got a nice toe round and the race fell into his lap nicely.

“He likes the quick ground and he’d stay further.”

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.00 Chelmsford : Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Went left start, disputed lead until went on over 2f out, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly to win by three lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...


A relatively simple approach today with a 3 yr old filly seeking a hat trick (albeit after 102 days off track) after wins over both this 7f trip and also at 6f on the tapeta earlier this year. 102 days is a decent break and you do worry if horses are rusty after a layoff, but the rest of the field have all been inactive for at least ten weeks longer than our pick and our girl is trained by Mark Johnston, who has certainly hit the ground running as shown by this graphic...

...but I think that's fairly common knowledge right now.

As with yesterday, my way in to the race was once again the Geegeez racecard and a highlighted Query Tool angle of mine...

So we see our filly is in good form as I said at the start, both trainer have jockey have the green C5 icon denoting a good record at this venue and this is backed up by my own imaginatively-titled angle "Haydock Flat". This essentially highlights whenever any of a half dozen of trainers including Mark Johnston have runners in handicaps here at Haydock.

And Mark makes this list because his runners in such contests over trips of 7 to 12 furlongs have the following record over the last six seasons...

...from which, the following is relevant today...

  • 16 from 65 (24.6%) for 29.8pts (+45.8%) sent off at 7/4 to 7/1
  • 15/90 (16.6%) for 28.5pts (+31.6%) from 3 yr olds
  • 15/79 (19%) for 47.7pts (+60.4%) in races worth up to £10.5k
  • 13/74 (17.6%) for 36.5pts (+49.3%) in 3yo only contests
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 23.85pts (+51.8%) during the last two seasons
  • 6/35 (17.1%) for 10.3pts (+29.4%) from those stepping up in class
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 46.9pts (+173.8%) from females
  • 6/19 (31.8%) for 27.4pts (+144.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/7 942.9%) for 17.1pts (+244.4%) with Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle.

Now I do like to combine sets of data like those above to form a composite angle, but you have to be careful not to dilute the sample size too far. The smaller that sample becomes, the more open you become to the figures being distorted by chance, so I'm just going to look at the first three subsets since the start of the 2017 campaign, which looks like...

...and with an A/E of 1.69, as trike rate of 35%, a Betfair SP ROI in excess of 70% and an average win price in our ballpark, this is something I'm happy with, especially as those numbers include 6 winners from 18 in 3yo handicaps and 3 winners from 6 for the female runners...

...which all pointed me towards...a 1pt win bet on Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, SkyBet and Hills at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 2.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!