Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Seven of today's ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I've taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it's admittedly been a while since he last won and he's clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue...

...as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Lucarno Dancer @ 10/3 BOG UR at 3/1 (Chased leaders, blundered and unseated rider 5th)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo fillies over 6f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly (obvs!) has never finished outside the first four home in seven starts on the A/W, winning twice : firstly over this very course and distance back in October and more recently last time out, 37 days ago, over 5f at Wolverhampton.

She has finished 1st and 3rd on her two previous visits to Kempton, she's 2 from 3 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter and is 1 from 1 over track and trip.

Her jockey Richard Kingscote has been on good form of late winning 7 of 30 (23.3% SR) for 42.06pts (+140.2% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include...

  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 48.06pts (+200.2%) on Polytrack
  • 4/10 (40%) for 47.93pts (+479.3%) here at Kempton
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) over 6 furlongs
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.71pts (+485.5%) here at Kempton over this 6f C&D.

None of those 30 rides above have been for today's trainer Stuart Williams, but over the last two years, the duo have 7 wins from 34 (20.6% SR) together, generating profits of 12.24pts (+36% ROI) and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) in handicaps
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 6/24 (25%) for 11.74pts (+48.9%) with horses with a run in the previous 40 days
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 20.4pts (+156.7%) over 6f
  • 2/8 (25%) for 6.84pts (+85.6%) at Class 5

...whilst from the above...handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1 within 40 days of their last run are 6 from 14 (42.9% SR) for 21.74pts (+155.3% ROI), including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 16.87pts (+281.2%) over 6f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2018

New Year's Day's Result :

2.35 Cheltenham : Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Prominent, led 3 out, headed next, one pace and beaten before last, lost 3rd on flat.

Next up is Tuesday's...

6.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Tapeta worth £6,081 to the winner...

Why?

At first glance, this 7yr old gelding's modest 5/31 record and a lack of a recent win might put you off, but he does drop two classes to Class 4 today to run off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning rating, whilst of his 31 runs to date, he's actually 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 16.1pts (+123.6% ROI) over a straight 5f, including 2 wins at Class 2 and one at Class 3.

His trainer Stuart Williams is 2/3 since Christmas (2/2 Tapeta) and is one of those rare number of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly in A/W handicaps, as since 2009 his runners are 164/962 (17.1% SR) for 40pts (+4.2% ROI) in such contests. Now, 4.2% isn't exactly earth-shattering or life changing, but is a decent return from blindly backing almost 1000 runners.

But I'd never advise backing them all, so how can we weed out some bets and increase our returns? Well, of those 962 runners...

  • those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 154/753 (20.5%) for 177.4pts (+23.6%)
  • males are 131/714 (18.4%) for 78.4pts (+11%)
  • from November to February : 101/515 (19.6%) for 79.5pts (+15.4%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 87/438 (19.9%) for 60pts (+13.7%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 85/422 (20.1%) for 57.9pts (+13.7%)
  • in January : 36/160 (22.5%) for 16.3pts (+10.2%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 23/149 (15.4%) for 6.73pts (+4.52%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey Sean Levey are 9/47 (19.2%) for 17.3pts (+36.8%)
  • on a straight track : 8/28 (28.6%) for 6.23pts (+22.3%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 2/12 916.6%) for 1.87pts (+15.6%)

Now all of the above angles are profitable, but each is rather specialised/specific, so what I'd advise would be to take a more composite overview based on the above data, but with just 40% of the original runners, but with increased profits and ROI, as follows in a simple Stuart Williams A/W micro-system that's worth logging and saving for future reference...

...2009-17 / 3-10 yr old males / priced at 11-10 to 12-1 over 5f to 10f / running in July to February within 120 days of their last run... which gives 98 winners from 385 (25.5% SR) runners for profits of some 207.4pts at an ROI of 53.9%, with no spike to skew the numbers, as it has made profit in each of the last 9 years, including of relevance today...

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 16.7pts (+39.7%) on Tapeta
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.75pts (+59.8%) over the last two months alone
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 21pts (+116.5%) under jockey Sean Levey
  • 4/14 928.6%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%) on a straight run
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.87pts (+98.1%) here at Newcastle.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.20pm on New Year's Day. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.15 Southwell : Brigadoon @ 9/2 BOG WON at 6/1 Led after 2f, made rest, clear over 3f out, increased lead over 2f out, eased in final furlong to win by 10 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.15 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Upavon4/1 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding trained by Stuart Williams and I'm always interested in Stuart Williams' A/W handicappers, providing the market suggests there's at least a chance of a run for my money and the simple reason behind this pick is that since the start of 2013, it's actually profitable to back them all!

Since 1/1/13 : Stuart Williams + A/W hcps = 89/513 (17.4$ SR) for 63.2pts (+12.3% ROI) and I could leave it there, but I wouldn't want you to feel short changed, so without complicating matters too much, here are just some of the angles you can take to refine the main stat : all of which apply today, of course!

So, of the 513 we started with...

  • those last seen 4-60 days ago (rested but not rusty!) = 80/449 (17.8%) for 68.3pts (+15.2%)
  • over 4f to 1m : 78/411 (19%) for 97.9pts (+23.8%)
  • top 6 finish LTO = 72/378 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 68/373 (18.2%) for 66.4pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 74/371 (20%) for 132.4pts (+35.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 22/135 (16.3%) for 25.6pts (+18.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 8/46 (17.4%) for 10.4pts (+22.7%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.2pts (+27.4%)

...which points towards...a 1pt win bet on Upavon 4/1 BOG which was very widely available  at 6.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.40 Kempton : Sovereign Debt @ 100/30 BOG 3rd at 11/10 (Tracked leader until ridden over 2f out, stayed on same pace from over 1f out)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geraldine @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

The only previous winner in this this line-up after scoring over this trip at Kempton last time out three weeks ago. That was her first run under Martin Harley who retains the ride today for Stuart Williams, whose A/W record is the base for today's selection.

Stuart's record in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013 stands at 81 winners from 438 (18.5% SR) for 95.7pts (+21.9% ROI), with the the following of interest/relevance to this contest...

  • those racing 11-60 dslr are 60/313 (19.2%) for 101.4pts (+32.4%)
  • those priced at 11/10 to 8/1 are 72/306 (23.5%) for 107.5pts (+35.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 30/146 (20.6%) for 54.7pts (+37.5%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 21/114 (18.4%) for 39.1pts (+34.3%)
  • and over 6f : 19/102 (18.6%) for 38.1pts (+37.3%)

And a simple Stuart Williams micro for Chelmsford? OK, those priced at 11/10 to 8/1, 6 to 60 days after their last run are 18/71 (25.4% SR) for 49.3pts (+69.4% ROI) with 10 winners from 35 (28.6%) already this year producing 26.2pts profit at an ROI of 74.8%)

...but for now...a 1pt win bet on Geraldine at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 6.25pm on Wednesday by market leader Bet365, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Crisford to Claim International Honours

Still reeling from the news of Postponed missing the King George VI, it’s fair to say that the field of seven that remain lack a true ‘A-lister’, giving the race a competitive look, rather than that of a potential classic.

It’s surprising that the omission of one horse can cause such a mood change, but the event is now pretty much a repeat of the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, with a decent French raider thrown in for good measure. My money will be on Erupt, who appears at least, to have the potential of becoming a serious Group 1 performer. His Arc fifth place finish is undoubtedly the strongest form. I expect Highland Reel to get the better of Dartmouth in the race for second spot, though both are surely a fair bit shy of top-class.

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes remains the feature race on Saturday’s card. Nevertheless, it’s the Gigaset International Stakes that is sure to attract the most attention from a betting prospective. This latest event in the Heritage Handicap series is worth over £93,000 to the winner, and has attracted a field of 26. Ultra-competitive as ever, several ‘old favourites’ take up the challenge, including last year’s winner and runner-up; Heaven’s Guest and Balty Boys.

This year’s renewal is set to be run on very different ground from 12 months ago, and is currently described as good to firm. Heaven’s Guest appears to operate just as well on a quicker surface, as shown when a close second on fast ground in Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup a few weeks back. A stiff seven furlongs certainly suits Richard Fahey’s fella, and though he only just held on for victory last year, he had been in front plenty long enough on that occasion. Adam McNamara takes a valuable 5lb off, and has been aboard on three of the last five starts.

Balty Boys was cutting him down fast 12 months ago, though may find things happening a little quick for him this time around. He’s proven over further, and although he’s handicapped to reverse form with Heaven’s Guest, I’d be surprised if that actually happens. He’s a classy sort, and I expect him to be charging home late on, probably a little too late.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Having covered last year’s front two, the stats suggest that the winner is more likely to be a younger horse, with four and five-year-olds dominant in recent years. Indeed, four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals. Experience of both large handicaps and of running at Ascot, have also proved a positive for those looking to win this race. The last 10 winners had all run at the track.

It should come as no surprise in such a competitive race, with so many contenders, to see that favourites have a very poor record. A third place finish is the best that the last ten favourites could manage, with last year’s favourite not even making it out of the stalls. In fairness, Speculative Bid did eventually exit the stalls, though minus a jockey.

This year’s curse looks set to hang over Suzi’s Connoisseur, who currently heads the market at 7/1. The five-year-old gelding is trained by Stuart Williams for Qatar Racing, and was fifth in the race 12 months ago. He’s not short of speed, but has been known to wander somewhat under pressure late in his races. I fancy he’ll do well to see out this trip, in this company. It would be no surprise to see him go close, only to be chinned late on by stronger stayers.

I was on Flash Fire when he won the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May. Godolphin’s four-year-old then ran a stinker in the Wokingham, on ground too soft and over a trip too short. He bounced back to some kind of form when fifth in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. He tops the weights, and that’s a tough ask in a race of this nature. Though a course and distance winner, I’d be surprised if he can win tomorrow.

Marco Botti’s Fanciful Angel is a classy sort, and is the mount of Frankie Dettori. The four-year-old spent the winter in Meydan, and performed well. He was a decent three-year-old, finishing second in the German 2000 Guineas (Frankie rode him on that occasion). He ran no sort of race at Epsom last time, when far too keen in a Group 3. He also has plenty of weight on his back, and that has to be a worry, as would be the lack of experience in large field handicaps.

Bossy Guest is another that certainly has the ability to go well, but whether he has the aptitude is a totally different matter. He all but dropped himself out last time at Newmarket, before rallying late on. His handicap peaked at 114 and is now down to 104. He ran pretty well in the Royal Hunt Cup two starts back, and is reunited with Silvestre De Sousa. You couldn’t be confident that he’ll run well, yet wouldn’t be surprised if he did.

Mutawathea has run two huge races in valuable handicaps already this season. He was a close second to Flash Fire at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, and ran a belter to finish third in the Bunbury Cup. Simon Crisford hands the mount to 7lb claimer George Wood. This is a tough gig for such an inexperienced young jockey, though he looked a stylish rider on Buckstay in the Bunbury Cup. Tactics will be interesting, as the horse was probably ridden a little too positively last time. He has to be on the short-list, on what he’s done so far during this campaign.

Challenging for favouritism is the four-year-old Royal Hunt Cup runner-up Librisa Breeze. He travelled powerfully that day, and looked the winner a furlong out. That came at a mile, on soft ground, and he’s yet to run over a shorter trip in eight career starts. His trainer, Dean Ivory, did say in the week that the gelding would miss the race should the ground stay on the firm side.

Niall Moran trains Dont Bother Me in Ireland, and he was last seen running well in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Ahead of Gordon Lord Byron that day in a six runner affair, this is clearly very different, nevertheless, he is more than familiar with this event having finished second in the 2014 renewal when handled by Marco Botti. He’s back on the same handicap mark, and although vulnerable to more progressive types, his odds of 20/1 appear more than reasonable.

As hard as I’ve tried to find a four-year-old to uphold recent trends, I’ve come-up short. It’s a five-year-old for me that has outstanding claims, along with two experienced six-year-olds. Mutawathea has been knocking on the door this summer, and I fancy he’ll land the big prize on this occasion. Heaven’s Guest and Don’t Bother Me look sure to run well. I’ll take the latter to be finish powerfully for place money at 20/1.

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2016

Friday's Result :

4.30 Newbury : Mountain Eagle @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 13/8 (Took keen hold, in touch, challenged 2 out, ridden and effort before last, kept on same pace in 3rd on flat)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lunar Deity @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trained by Stuart Williams, whose horses have gone really well on this track over the last few years with 42 winners from 196 since the start of 2012. This 21.4% strike rate has generated 100.9pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 51.5% and those 196 runners can be further assessed on the basis of today's contest as follows...

  • those competing over trips of 5f to 1m4f are 42/191 (22% SR) for 105.9pts (+554% ROI)
  • handicappers are 31/143 (21.7% SR) for 53.6pts (+37.5% ROI)
  • those who ran in the last 30 days are 35/136 (25.7% SR) for 116.1pts (+85.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 32/134 (23.9% SR) for 85.4pts (+63.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 8-12 to 9-06 are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 117.8pts (+99.9% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 4pts (+11.3% ROI)
  • Class 2 runners are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 20.5pts (+128% ROI)

And in addition to Stuart's decent record here, Lunar Deity is no mug either, having already won 6 of 14 races on the A/W, of which he's 6/13 in handicaps. He's 6 from 10 at this 1m trip, 4 from 8 here at Lingfield and 4 from 5 over course and distance.

He's also won three of his four Class 2 races and is 3 from 6 when ridden by today's jockey Pat Cosgrave, including their last two outings together.

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Lunar Deity at 11/4 BOG, a price available with around half a dozen firms at 7.50pm, so to see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

1.35 Leicester : Chicoria @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, jumped slowly 3rd, soon lost place, jumped left and behind 6th, tailed off when pulled up before 4 out)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

4.05 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Fable of Arachne was a course and distance winner on her last outing 28 days ago, when she stayed on well to win, looking like she still had more to give. That was her first crack at 7f on the A/W, where she now has a record of 2 wins and a runner-up finish from just four starts, all at today's Class 6 level and she's 2 from 3 here at Chelmsford.

Today's jockey Graham Gibbons also has a 1 from 1 record with her, acquired via that C&D triumph four days ago and Fable of Arachne is trained by Stuart Williams, who does pretty well in A/W handicaps, having notched up 125 winners from 719 (17.4% SR) runners since the start of 2008 with the resultant 81.1pts level stakes profits equating to an 11.3% return on stakes, but by narrowing down the large dataset, we can improve those figures as follows...

  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 110/583 (18.9% SR) for 107.5pts (+18.4% ROI)
  • Class 5/6 : 98/531 (18.5% SR) for 86.5pts (+16.3% ROI)
  • at 5/2 to 14/1 : 91/512 (17.8% SR) for 157.4 pts (+30.7% ROI)
  • in races of 9 to 13 runners : 83/495 (16.8% SR) for 102.6pts (+20.7% ROI)
  • running 16 to 60 days after their last outing : 57/362 (15.8% SR) for 55.5pts (+15.3% ROI)
  • rated (OR) 49 to 64 : 68/325 (20.9% SR) for 105.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
  • over the last three years : 53/289 (18.3% SR) for 78.4pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • here at Chelmsford : 11/68 (16.2% SR) for 12.7pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • with Graham Gibbons in the saddle : 2/9 (22.2% SR) for 16.9pts (+187.6% ROI)

AND... since the start of 2009, Stuart Williams' runners in class 5 to 7 A/W handicaps, over 5f to a mile, in fields of 7 to 13 runners, at odds of 5/2 to 16/1, when rated (OR) 49 to 66, running 4 to 120 days after their last run are 43 from 150 (28/7% SR) for profits of 196.8pts (+131.2% ROI), an angle that has made profit in each of the last 7 years, with LTO winners priced at 7/1 or shorter winning 5 of 12 (41.7% SR) for 19.9pts (+165.8% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 6.00pm?

A 1pt win bet on Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor, whilst to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2015

Varsovian provided our second winner on the bounce as the greenshoots of recovery threaten to poke their heads out, but it looked for much of the race that he was going to be beaten.

He was slowly away and out at the back looking for gaps in the pack. He had the door shut on him approaching the furlong pole and I honestly though that was game over for us, but Jimmy Quinn was excellent to spot the danger and a gap up against the rail, switched inside and kicked for home.

He swallowed up the final furlong and just about got himself front to score by a neck at our advised 11/4 odds. With a start like I expected, he'd have won comfortably, but he might just have protected his mark here!

I'm not sure where this week has gone, as it's time to pick Thursday's runner already and that one runs in the...

6.10 Chelmsford:

And a 9/4 BOG bet on Stuart Williams' Rock Charm.

Stuart Williams' record in A/W handicaps since he start of 2012 is pretty good indeed with 57 winners from 300 runners (19% SR) and level stakes profits of 46.9pts equating to a more than respectable 15.6% return on your money.

Those runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 38/154 (24.7% SR) for 44pts (+28.6% ROI) profit.

He has booked Andrea Atzeni for the ride here and Andrea's own record here at this track is 7/50 (14% SR) for profits of 51.7pts (+103.4% ROI) with sub-7/1 handicap runners contributing 4 winners from 14 (28.6% SR) and 18.9pts (+134.9% ROI) profit.

Stuart tends to have some success when Andrea rides his horses too, as together they are 20/111 (18% SR) for 24.5pts (+22.1% ROI) profit, with the A/W proving to be the happiest hunting ground with 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) for 19.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit.

Rock Charm has finished 133 in his last three starts, all over today's 1m trip too. The win was a course and distance victory here a little over six weeks ago and his third placed effort last time out was the pick of his runs, so he's clearly in good form.

Andrea Atzeni was on board for the first time last time out when beaten by a little over three lengths in a claimer, when horribly treated at the weights. The winner was rated 8lbs higher than Rock Charm, but carried a stone less than our runner, whilst the runner-up also had some 9lbs in hand that day too.

Back in a handicap today and off a reasonable mark of 57, he looks poised to resume winning ways, so I'm on Rock Charm at 9/4 BOG with BetVictor. That price is also currently available with Bet365 and Betfair's Sportsbook.

To help you decide which firm to use, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Eton Rifles in the Contessina for third successive year

Eton Rifles - a liking for France

Eton Rifles - a liking for France

An injury setback at the start of the season meant trainer Stuart Williams had wait until Autumn before running his eight year old gelding Eton Rifles. It didn’t get in the way of his end of year target, and yesterday the horse notched up a three timer in the Prix Contessina at Fontainebleau. Read more

Trainer Stats: 20th Feb 2013

Colin Tizzard

Look out for the Tizzard horses

More trainer clues and stats as Andy Newton's got six more hot yard to look out for this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 13th Feb 2013

Mullins

Mullins Horses Are In Tip-Top Order

A real mixed bag of trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s 'HOT LIST' this week – see which ones here....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 23rd Jan 2013

David Simcock

Simcock Has Started 2013 In Fine Form

Andy Newton's got 6 hot trainers to look out for on the AW tracks, plus a big yard who are still looking for their first winner in 2013! Read more

Trainer Stats: 20th Nov 2012

Mullins' Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton has four yards from the flat and four from the NH to look out for this week...... Read more

Trainer Stats: 3rd Oct 2012

 

Tregoning On The Marc....

Andy Newton gave you last weekend's Cambridgeshire-winning trainer - Marcus Tregoning -  to look out for, so who's on his 'hot list' this week? Read more