Posts

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

4.10 Newcastle : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Held up and behind, switched right before not fluent 3 out, closed a little after 2 out, not fluent and still plenty to do last, ridden final 100 yards and finished with a flourish to lead close home) - I thought the jockey rode a superb race on debut.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was narrowly defeated by a short head last time out in another Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford 18 days ago. He was only headed in the final strides and gets to go off the same mark today, but importantly drops back in trip to what I feel is his optimum 7f distance. That mere drop in trip should be all it needs to get him back to winning ways and the improvements of an already excellent record on the A/W.

He has made the frame in 9 of 13 (69.2%) starts on the all-weather, winning 6 times (46.2% SR) with those wins yielding 36.7pts (+282.2% ROI) profit. Under today's conditions, those 13 races have produced the following...

  • 6 wins and 3 places from 10 after a break of 2-7 weeks
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 on Polytrack
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 8 over the 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in Class 4 races worth over £6k
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey PJ McDonald...

...whilst in his six races over 7f on Polytrack in fields of 8-11 runners after breaks of 2 to 7 weeks, Glenn Coco has made the frame 5 times (83.3%), winning 4 times (66.6% SR) for returns of 31.43pts at an ROI of 523.84%.

Trainer Stuart Williams is in good form right now with three winners and a placer from his four runners over the last week, including 2 from 2 here at Kempton and 1 from 1 with jockey PJ McDonald (also here at Kempton) and he has a good record when using today's jockey on the A/W winning 16 of 64 (25% SR) for 25.06pts (+39.2% ROI), including...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 31.5pts (+63%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 11/44 (25%) for 7.38pts (+16.8%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 12.9pts (+41.5%) in 5-11 runner races worth up to £8k
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+86.4%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 28.8pts (+106.6%) over 6/7f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 10.26pts (+93.3%) here at Kempton...

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Wednesday morning from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with plenty of 10/3 offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.15 Perth : Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, pushed along after 3 out, went 2nd before 2 out until 2 out, kept on same pace in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding well suited to the task ahead who is to be ridden for an in-form jockey riding for an in-form yard that has a good record at this venue. What could possibly go wrong?

Let me briefly add some numbers to the above opening gambit...

  • Jockey Marco Ghiani has 5 winners from 11 in the past week
  • Trainer Stuart Williams is 7 from 28 in the same period
  • and together, they are 11 from 61 (18% SR) for 117.1pts (+191.9% ROI) this year with a 4 from 7 return over the last seven days.

And the yard's record here at Chelmsford? 45 from 209 (21.5% SR) for 64.3pts (+30.7%ROI) wit runners sent off in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range, including...

  • 39/172 (22.7%) for 74.2pts (+43.1%) over trips of a mile and shorter
  • 37/160 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+35.3%) with male runners
  • 25/101 (24.8%) for 140.1pts (+138.8%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 24/94 (25.5%) for 47.1pts (+50.1%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 64.6pts (+95%) during September to December
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 23.8pts (+50.8%) at Class 4
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.6pts (+51.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 13pts (+433.3%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle...

...from which, 3-8 yr olds males in 5-8 runners contests of a mile or shorter are 15/50 (30% SR) for 36.8pts (+73.6% ROI) including 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 7.47pts (+62.2%) at Class 4...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Redcar : Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up mid-division, headway 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner (was 9 last night!), Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good  ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has been the bridesmaid on each of her last two starts, but not beaten by much either time. She went down by a neck 3 weeks ago and then by half a length to a better horse six days ago. Both races were at today's class and distance and off today's mark of 74, but Marco Ghiani takes the ride here and his 7lb claim could make all the difference today (especially as her main rival Lady of Aran is now one of the two overnight non-runners).

Trainer Stuart Williams does well turning horses back out quickly and since the start of 2017, his runners racing within a week of their last run are 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 35pts (+37.2% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 21/87 (24.1%) for 31.9pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 21/68 (30.9%) for 42.5pts (+62.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 18/62 (29%) for 40.3pts (+65.1%) on the Flat
  • 18/57 (31.6%) for 53.6pts (+94%) in fields of 5 to 9 runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 50.3pts (+122.6%) during July to September
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.2pts (+81.8%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 27.3pts (+59.3%) from 4 to 6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 31.5pts (+121.3%) at the same class & distance as LTO
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7pts (+53.8%) on Good ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) here at Yarmouth

...whilst during June to September at odds of 8/1 and shorter in 5-9 runner Flat handicaps, the above 94 runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 35.4pts (+147.3% ROI) profit, from which those racing at the same class/distance as LTO are 5 from 5 for 16.6pts (+332% ROI).

And as the above contains a 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) snippet here at Yarmouth, I'll finish by mentioning that Stuart Williams' handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 17/70 (24.3% SR) for 18.3pts (+26.1% ROI) here at Yarmouth over the last six seasons, including...

  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23pts (+120.9%) after a 2nd/3rd place finish LTJO
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 11pts (+60.9%) with females
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.8pts (+77.1%) over this 6f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Sky, Hills Betfair & PP at 6.00pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/4 knocking about too, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2019

Bank Holiday Monday's pick was...

5.00 Cartmel : Justatenner @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Held up in rear, headway after 2 out, driven to chase leaders when not fluent last, soon ridden, stayed on into 2nd flat, no impression with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good/Good to Firm ground worth £7,116 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr ld gelding has won two of his last three starts, including an LTO win in a similar Class 4, 7f handicap at Sandown 19 days ago. That took his record over 7f to 7 wins and 6 places from 26 attempts, including wins on Soft (x2), Good to Soft (x1), Good (x2) and Good to Firm (x2), so I don't expect the ground or trip to be an issue today and as he's 3/11 at Classes 2/3, he shouldn't be outclassed here either.

He's got Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and Andrea has a good record on this quirky track, whilst his trainer Stuart Williams is 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 49.6pts (+154.9% ROI) over the past fortnight, so he's got his string in good nick.

More long-term, ie since 2010 however, his runners sent off at odds of 11/10 to 9/1 at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 19.1pts (+36% ROI), with the following angles at play today...

  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 26.14pts (+60.8%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 20.64pts (+48%) from male runners
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 20.03pts (+52.7%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 15.6pts (+67.8%) at Class 4/5
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.83pts (+17.25%) since 2016
  • and 7/24 (29.2%) for 22.37pts (+93.2%) from 5-8 yr olds...

...from which, males racing over 5-7f at 11-25 dslr are 9/25 (36% SR) for 24.6pts (+98.4% ROI) ie 128.8% of the original profit from just 47.1% of the runners!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday (Only Bet365 had opened on a BOG basis and they were a point shorter). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.45 Southwell : Graceland @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Raced on inside, chased leader, led before 3rd until 2 out, lost 2nd between last 2, no extra in 3rd)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, we have an 8yr old gelding with a win and a place from three visits to this track including two runs over course and distance that saw him finish as a runner-up and then as a winner when last tackling the C&D three starts ago, when ridden by today's jockey for three first/only previous occasion.

He last ran seven days ago and he has a 6/24 (25% SR) record that has produced 12.22pts profit at an ROI of 50.9% when turned back out 6-12 days after his last run, including 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.2pts (+113.1%) at odds of 11/4 to 7/1, from which he is 2 from 5 (40%) for 4.01pts (+80.2%) at Class 4.

His quick re-appearance should not only suit him, but is also one of the regular methods deployed by trainer Stuart Williams, whose Flat handicappers are 15 from 63 (23.8% SR) for 41.2pts (+65.4% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons when turned back out after less than 10 days rest, from which...

  • males are 14/55 (25.5%) for 41.3pts (+75%)
  • those running in June/August are 10/35 (28.6%) for 41.3pts (+118%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 23.3pts (+110.8%)

And I'm going to round today's piece off with a quick look at our jockey Jason Watson. The reason for this is that some jockeys just "get" a certain track (like Messrs Bishop, Dettori, Norton & de Sousa at Epsom for example) and Jason has done far better in short distance races here at Brighton in comparison with his overall stats.

He's still learning his trade, of course, bit of a career record reading 144/1013 (14.22% SR) for a small loss of 33.76pts (-3.33% ROI), he's actually 11 from 27 (40.7% SR) for 39.7pts (+147.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over 5.5 to 6 furlongs here at Brighton, of which he's 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+221.2%) since riding out his claim last October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 13/2 or 11/2 BOG from Bet365 / Sky respectively, whilst 5/1 BOG was offered by a whole host of firms at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Seven of today's ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I've taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it's admittedly been a while since he last won and he's clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue...

...as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Lucarno Dancer @ 10/3 BOG UR at 3/1 (Chased leaders, blundered and unseated rider 5th)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo fillies over 6f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly (obvs!) has never finished outside the first four home in seven starts on the A/W, winning twice : firstly over this very course and distance back in October and more recently last time out, 37 days ago, over 5f at Wolverhampton.

She has finished 1st and 3rd on her two previous visits to Kempton, she's 2 from 3 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter and is 1 from 1 over track and trip.

Her jockey Richard Kingscote has been on good form of late winning 7 of 30 (23.3% SR) for 42.06pts (+140.2% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include...

  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 48.06pts (+200.2%) on Polytrack
  • 4/10 (40%) for 47.93pts (+479.3%) here at Kempton
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) over 6 furlongs
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.71pts (+485.5%) here at Kempton over this 6f C&D.

None of those 30 rides above have been for today's trainer Stuart Williams, but over the last two years, the duo have 7 wins from 34 (20.6% SR) together, generating profits of 12.24pts (+36% ROI) and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) in handicaps
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 6/24 (25%) for 11.74pts (+48.9%) with horses with a run in the previous 40 days
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 20.4pts (+156.7%) over 6f
  • 2/8 (25%) for 6.84pts (+85.6%) at Class 5

...whilst from the above...handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1 within 40 days of their last run are 6 from 14 (42.9% SR) for 21.74pts (+155.3% ROI), including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 16.87pts (+281.2%) over 6f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2018

New Year's Day's Result :

2.35 Cheltenham : Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Prominent, led 3 out, headed next, one pace and beaten before last, lost 3rd on flat.

Next up is Tuesday's...

6.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Tapeta worth £6,081 to the winner...

Why?

At first glance, this 7yr old gelding's modest 5/31 record and a lack of a recent win might put you off, but he does drop two classes to Class 4 today to run off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning rating, whilst of his 31 runs to date, he's actually 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 16.1pts (+123.6% ROI) over a straight 5f, including 2 wins at Class 2 and one at Class 3.

His trainer Stuart Williams is 2/3 since Christmas (2/2 Tapeta) and is one of those rare number of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly in A/W handicaps, as since 2009 his runners are 164/962 (17.1% SR) for 40pts (+4.2% ROI) in such contests. Now, 4.2% isn't exactly earth-shattering or life changing, but is a decent return from blindly backing almost 1000 runners.

But I'd never advise backing them all, so how can we weed out some bets and increase our returns? Well, of those 962 runners...

  • those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 154/753 (20.5%) for 177.4pts (+23.6%)
  • males are 131/714 (18.4%) for 78.4pts (+11%)
  • from November to February : 101/515 (19.6%) for 79.5pts (+15.4%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 87/438 (19.9%) for 60pts (+13.7%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days ago : 85/422 (20.1%) for 57.9pts (+13.7%)
  • in January : 36/160 (22.5%) for 16.3pts (+10.2%)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 23/149 (15.4%) for 6.73pts (+4.52%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey Sean Levey are 9/47 (19.2%) for 17.3pts (+36.8%)
  • on a straight track : 8/28 (28.6%) for 6.23pts (+22.3%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 2/12 916.6%) for 1.87pts (+15.6%)

Now all of the above angles are profitable, but each is rather specialised/specific, so what I'd advise would be to take a more composite overview based on the above data, but with just 40% of the original runners, but with increased profits and ROI, as follows in a simple Stuart Williams A/W micro-system that's worth logging and saving for future reference...

...2009-17 / 3-10 yr old males / priced at 11-10 to 12-1 over 5f to 10f / running in July to February within 120 days of their last run... which gives 98 winners from 385 (25.5% SR) runners for profits of some 207.4pts at an ROI of 53.9%, with no spike to skew the numbers, as it has made profit in each of the last 9 years, including of relevance today...

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 16.7pts (+39.7%) on Tapeta
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.75pts (+59.8%) over the last two months alone
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 21pts (+116.5%) under jockey Sean Levey
  • 4/14 928.6%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%) on a straight run
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.87pts (+98.1%) here at Newcastle.

...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.20pm on New Year's Day. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.15 Southwell : Brigadoon @ 9/2 BOG WON at 6/1 Led after 2f, made rest, clear over 3f out, increased lead over 2f out, eased in final furlong to win by 10 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.15 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Upavon4/1 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding trained by Stuart Williams and I'm always interested in Stuart Williams' A/W handicappers, providing the market suggests there's at least a chance of a run for my money and the simple reason behind this pick is that since the start of 2013, it's actually profitable to back them all!

Since 1/1/13 : Stuart Williams + A/W hcps = 89/513 (17.4$ SR) for 63.2pts (+12.3% ROI) and I could leave it there, but I wouldn't want you to feel short changed, so without complicating matters too much, here are just some of the angles you can take to refine the main stat : all of which apply today, of course!

So, of the 513 we started with...

  • those last seen 4-60 days ago (rested but not rusty!) = 80/449 (17.8%) for 68.3pts (+15.2%)
  • over 4f to 1m : 78/411 (19%) for 97.9pts (+23.8%)
  • top 6 finish LTO = 72/378 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 68/373 (18.2%) for 66.4pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 74/371 (20%) for 132.4pts (+35.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 22/135 (16.3%) for 25.6pts (+18.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 8/46 (17.4%) for 10.4pts (+22.7%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.2pts (+27.4%)

...which points towards...a 1pt win bet on Upavon 4/1 BOG which was very widely available  at 6.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.40 Kempton : Sovereign Debt @ 100/30 BOG 3rd at 11/10 (Tracked leader until ridden over 2f out, stayed on same pace from over 1f out)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geraldine @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

The only previous winner in this this line-up after scoring over this trip at Kempton last time out three weeks ago. That was her first run under Martin Harley who retains the ride today for Stuart Williams, whose A/W record is the base for today's selection.

Stuart's record in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013 stands at 81 winners from 438 (18.5% SR) for 95.7pts (+21.9% ROI), with the the following of interest/relevance to this contest...

  • those racing 11-60 dslr are 60/313 (19.2%) for 101.4pts (+32.4%)
  • those priced at 11/10 to 8/1 are 72/306 (23.5%) for 107.5pts (+35.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 30/146 (20.6%) for 54.7pts (+37.5%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 21/114 (18.4%) for 39.1pts (+34.3%)
  • and over 6f : 19/102 (18.6%) for 38.1pts (+37.3%)

And a simple Stuart Williams micro for Chelmsford? OK, those priced at 11/10 to 8/1, 6 to 60 days after their last run are 18/71 (25.4% SR) for 49.3pts (+69.4% ROI) with 10 winners from 35 (28.6%) already this year producing 26.2pts profit at an ROI of 74.8%)

...but for now...a 1pt win bet on Geraldine at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 6.25pm on Wednesday by market leader Bet365, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2016

Friday's Result :

4.30 Newbury : Mountain Eagle @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 13/8 (Took keen hold, in touch, challenged 2 out, ridden and effort before last, kept on same pace in 3rd on flat)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lunar Deity @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trained by Stuart Williams, whose horses have gone really well on this track over the last few years with 42 winners from 196 since the start of 2012. This 21.4% strike rate has generated 100.9pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 51.5% and those 196 runners can be further assessed on the basis of today's contest as follows...

  • those competing over trips of 5f to 1m4f are 42/191 (22% SR) for 105.9pts (+554% ROI)
  • handicappers are 31/143 (21.7% SR) for 53.6pts (+37.5% ROI)
  • those who ran in the last 30 days are 35/136 (25.7% SR) for 116.1pts (+85.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 32/134 (23.9% SR) for 85.4pts (+63.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 8-12 to 9-06 are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 117.8pts (+99.9% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 4pts (+11.3% ROI)
  • Class 2 runners are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 20.5pts (+128% ROI)

And in addition to Stuart's decent record here, Lunar Deity is no mug either, having already won 6 of 14 races on the A/W, of which he's 6/13 in handicaps. He's 6 from 10 at this 1m trip, 4 from 8 here at Lingfield and 4 from 5 over course and distance.

He's also won three of his four Class 2 races and is 3 from 6 when ridden by today's jockey Pat Cosgrave, including their last two outings together.

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Lunar Deity at 11/4 BOG, a price available with around half a dozen firms at 7.50pm, so to see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

1.35 Leicester : Chicoria @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, jumped slowly 3rd, soon lost place, jumped left and behind 6th, tailed off when pulled up before 4 out)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

4.05 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Fable of Arachne was a course and distance winner on her last outing 28 days ago, when she stayed on well to win, looking like she still had more to give. That was her first crack at 7f on the A/W, where she now has a record of 2 wins and a runner-up finish from just four starts, all at today's Class 6 level and she's 2 from 3 here at Chelmsford.

Today's jockey Graham Gibbons also has a 1 from 1 record with her, acquired via that C&D triumph four days ago and Fable of Arachne is trained by Stuart Williams, who does pretty well in A/W handicaps, having notched up 125 winners from 719 (17.4% SR) runners since the start of 2008 with the resultant 81.1pts level stakes profits equating to an 11.3% return on stakes, but by narrowing down the large dataset, we can improve those figures as follows...

  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 110/583 (18.9% SR) for 107.5pts (+18.4% ROI)
  • Class 5/6 : 98/531 (18.5% SR) for 86.5pts (+16.3% ROI)
  • at 5/2 to 14/1 : 91/512 (17.8% SR) for 157.4 pts (+30.7% ROI)
  • in races of 9 to 13 runners : 83/495 (16.8% SR) for 102.6pts (+20.7% ROI)
  • running 16 to 60 days after their last outing : 57/362 (15.8% SR) for 55.5pts (+15.3% ROI)
  • rated (OR) 49 to 64 : 68/325 (20.9% SR) for 105.7pts (+32.5% ROI)
  • over the last three years : 53/289 (18.3% SR) for 78.4pts (+27.1% ROI)
  • here at Chelmsford : 11/68 (16.2% SR) for 12.7pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • with Graham Gibbons in the saddle : 2/9 (22.2% SR) for 16.9pts (+187.6% ROI)

AND... since the start of 2009, Stuart Williams' runners in class 5 to 7 A/W handicaps, over 5f to a mile, in fields of 7 to 13 runners, at odds of 5/2 to 16/1, when rated (OR) 49 to 66, running 4 to 120 days after their last run are 43 from 150 (28/7% SR) for profits of 196.8pts (+131.2% ROI), an angle that has made profit in each of the last 7 years, with LTO winners priced at 7/1 or shorter winning 5 of 12 (41.7% SR) for 19.9pts (+165.8% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 6.00pm?

A 1pt win bet on Fable of Arachne @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor, whilst to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2015

Varsovian provided our second winner on the bounce as the greenshoots of recovery threaten to poke their heads out, but it looked for much of the race that he was going to be beaten.

He was slowly away and out at the back looking for gaps in the pack. He had the door shut on him approaching the furlong pole and I honestly though that was game over for us, but Jimmy Quinn was excellent to spot the danger and a gap up against the rail, switched inside and kicked for home.

He swallowed up the final furlong and just about got himself front to score by a neck at our advised 11/4 odds. With a start like I expected, he'd have won comfortably, but he might just have protected his mark here!

I'm not sure where this week has gone, as it's time to pick Thursday's runner already and that one runs in the...

6.10 Chelmsford:

And a 9/4 BOG bet on Stuart Williams' Rock Charm.

Stuart Williams' record in A/W handicaps since he start of 2012 is pretty good indeed with 57 winners from 300 runners (19% SR) and level stakes profits of 46.9pts equating to a more than respectable 15.6% return on your money.

Those runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 38/154 (24.7% SR) for 44pts (+28.6% ROI) profit.

He has booked Andrea Atzeni for the ride here and Andrea's own record here at this track is 7/50 (14% SR) for profits of 51.7pts (+103.4% ROI) with sub-7/1 handicap runners contributing 4 winners from 14 (28.6% SR) and 18.9pts (+134.9% ROI) profit.

Stuart tends to have some success when Andrea rides his horses too, as together they are 20/111 (18% SR) for 24.5pts (+22.1% ROI) profit, with the A/W proving to be the happiest hunting ground with 14 winners from 58 (24.1% SR) for 19.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit.

Rock Charm has finished 133 in his last three starts, all over today's 1m trip too. The win was a course and distance victory here a little over six weeks ago and his third placed effort last time out was the pick of his runs, so he's clearly in good form.

Andrea Atzeni was on board for the first time last time out when beaten by a little over three lengths in a claimer, when horribly treated at the weights. The winner was rated 8lbs higher than Rock Charm, but carried a stone less than our runner, whilst the runner-up also had some 9lbs in hand that day too.

Back in a handicap today and off a reasonable mark of 57, he looks poised to resume winning ways, so I'm on Rock Charm at 9/4 BOG with BetVictor. That price is also currently available with Bet365 and Betfair's Sportsbook.

To help you decide which firm to use, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Trainer Stats: 20th Feb 2013

Colin Tizzard

Look out for the Tizzard horses

More trainer clues and stats as Andy Newton's got six more hot yard to look out for this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 13th Feb 2013

Mullins

Mullins Horses Are In Tip-Top Order

A real mixed bag of trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s 'HOT LIST' this week – see which ones here....... Read more