New Year's Day's Result :
2.35 Cheltenham : Arthurs Gift @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Prominent, led 3 out, headed next, one pace and beaten before last, lost 3rd on flat.
Next up is Tuesday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG
A Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Tapeta worth £6,081 to the winner...
At first glance, this 7yr old gelding's modest 5/31 record and a lack of a recent win might put you off, but he does drop two classes to Class 4 today to run off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning rating, whilst of his 31 runs to date, he's actually 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 16.1pts (+123.6% ROI) over a straight 5f, including 2 wins at Class 2 and one at Class 3.
His trainer Stuart Williams is 2/3 since Christmas (2/2 Tapeta) and is one of those rare number of trainers who are profitable to follow blindly in A/W handicaps, as since 2009 his runners are 164/962 (17.1% SR) for 40pts (+4.2% ROI) in such contests. Now, 4.2% isn't exactly earth-shattering or life changing, but is a decent return from blindly backing almost 1000 runners.
But I'd never advise backing them all, so how can we weed out some bets and increase our returns? Well, of those 962 runners...
- those priced at 11/10 to 12/1 are 154/753 (20.5%) for 177.4pts (+23.6%)
- males are 131/714 (18.4%) for 78.4pts (+11%)
- from November to February : 101/515 (19.6%) for 79.5pts (+15.4%)
- over 5/6 furlongs : 87/438 (19.9%) for 60pts (+13.7%)
- those last seen 6-20 days ago : 85/422 (20.1%) for 57.9pts (+13.7%)
- in January : 36/160 (22.5%) for 16.3pts (+10.2%)
- 6/7 yr olds are 23/149 (15.4%) for 6.73pts (+4.52%)
- those ridden by today's jockey Sean Levey are 9/47 (19.2%) for 17.3pts (+36.8%)
- on a straight track : 8/28 (28.6%) for 6.23pts (+22.3%)
- and here at Newcastle : 2/12 916.6%) for 1.87pts (+15.6%)
Now all of the above angles are profitable, but each is rather specialised/specific, so what I'd advise would be to take a more composite overview based on the above data, but with just 40% of the original runners, but with increased profits and ROI, as follows in a simple Stuart Williams A/W micro-system that's worth logging and saving for future reference...
...2009-17 / 3-10 yr old males / priced at 11-10 to 12-1 over 5f to 10f / running in July to February within 120 days of their last run... which gives 98 winners from 385 (25.5% SR) runners for profits of some 207.4pts at an ROI of 53.9%, with no spike to skew the numbers, as it has made profit in each of the last 9 years, including of relevance today...
- 9/42 (21.4%) for 16.7pts (+39.7%) on Tapeta
- 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.75pts (+59.8%) over the last two months alone
- 6/18 (33.3%) for 21pts (+116.5%) under jockey Sean Levey
- 4/14 928.6%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%) on a straight run
- and 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.87pts (+98.1%) here at Newcastle.
...all of which points to...... a 1pt win bet on Shamshon @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.20pm on New Year's Day. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!