Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...

1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.

2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.

3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.

4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)

5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.73pts (+23.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 11/36 ((30.6%) for 17.46pts (+48.5%) during November to January
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.48pts (+43.9%) on Soft ground
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 7.82pts (+24.4%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.61pts (+137.2%) over today's course and distance...

...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...

1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.

2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.

3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.

4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)

5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.73pts (+23.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 11/36 ((30.6%) for 17.46pts (+48.5%) during November to January
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.48pts (+43.9%) on Soft ground
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 7.82pts (+24.4%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.61pts (+137.2%) over today's course and distance...

...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2019

Monday's pick was...

12.30 Ffos Las : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway and in touch 3rd, went 2nd 4 out, led going best before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on well to win by the best part of 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2,55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on good to soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it nice and simple today with an 11 yr old gelding who still seems full of life, having won last time out with a bit to spare despite a mistake at the last over at fairly nearby Sedgefield on soft ground three weeks ago.

That win took his record over fences to 4 from 11, which is decent at this level and includes of relevance today...

  • 4/10 (40%) going left handed & 4/8 (50%) under jockey Danny Cook
  • 3/8 (37.5%) at Class 4 & 3/8 (37.5%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) in November/December & 3/5 (60%) at odds below 4/1
  • 4/4 (75%) within 3 weeks of his last run & 2/5 (40%) at trips shorter than 17f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) in December...

...whilst his trainer Sue Smith is 22 from 50 (44%) with chasers here at Catterick over the last 6 years with a £10 level stake on all 50 yielding a profit of £685.30 or 137.1% of stakes invested. This highly impressive record includes...

  • 13/30 (43.3%) for 39.7pts (+132.2%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 29.61pts (+141%) at Class 4
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 6.57pts (+164.4%) with LTO winners...

...all of which is enough to support...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.05pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Taunton : Oxwich Bay @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Chased leaders in 4th, pushed along after 3 out, weakened on long run before next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m7f on Soft (Heavy in places) worth £8058 to the winner... 

Why?

So, it's the old boys on show here and with very little in the way of decent, recent form on show from this 10-runner field, our boy's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over the last 9 months stands out quite starkly.

He has 9 career wins to date, broken down with this contest in mind as follows...

  • 7 within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5 at Class 4, 5 in fields of 8-11 runners, 5 going left handed
  • 4 over fences, 4 under Danny Cook's steering
  • 3 on Soft ground
  • and 2 as a 12 yr old

As intimated above, Danny Cook will be in the saddle and his record riding for trainer Sue Smith is quite remarkable, as the partnership is actually profitable to back blindly after over 600 outings! More accurately, they are 116/643 (18% SR) for 125.9pts (+19.6% ROI) together and in the context of this race, those 643 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 114/611 (18.7%) for 147.9pts (+24.2%)
  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 102/533 (19.1%) for 102.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in fields of 6-12 runners : 88/460 (19.1%) for 162.3pts (+35.3%)
  • in handicaps : 91/450 (20.2%) for 102.7pts (+22.8%)
  • in chases : 78/372 (21%) for 42.3pts (+11.4%)
  • unplaced LTO : 69/361 (19.1%) for 205pts (+56.8%)
  • Soft/Heavy ground : 73/359 (20.3%) for 68.25pts (+19%)
  • Class 4 : 57/291 (19.6%) for 67.9pts (+23.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/177 (20.3%) for 35.5pts (+20%)
  • at Haydock : 10/63 (15.9%) for 65.6pts (+104.2%)
  • and in 2019 alone : 13/54 (24.1%) for 30pts (+55.6%)

...and from the above...male hcp chasers in fields of 6-12 runners competing for £4-13k on Soft ground = 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 47.4pts (+67.7% ROI), including...

  • within 45 days of last run : 22/57 (38.6%) for 54.1pts (+94.9%)
  • Class 4 : 12/40 (30%) for 12.76pts (+31.9%)
  • Class 4 within 45 days : 11/30 (36.7%) for 19.7pts (+65.7%)
  • in 2019 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.12pts (+182.4%)
  • and in 2019 at Class 4 within 45 days of last run = 2/2 (100%) for 12.12pts (+606%) : both by today's pick Dartford Warbler!

Finally (!) and more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases, males who won two starts ago and are now running less than 3 weeks after finishing fourth last time out are 36/137 (26.3% SR) for 156.7pts (+114.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG which was available from Hills at 5.20pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Betfair were offering 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

2.20 Wolverhampton : Awesome Allan @ 3/1 BOG 10th at 5/2 (Keen close up, switched to outer after 2f, ridden and weakened over 1f out before being quickly eased down)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.45 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 3, 3m0.5 Handicap Chase (5yo+) on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner...

Why?

This 10 yr old may well have been off the track for 341 days now, but does tend to go well fresh and when last seen was within nine lengths of the 146-rated winner (Vicente) in the Grade 3 Scottish Grand National last April, so not only is this a drop in class, it won't be such a tough ask on his stamina either.

All things being well, he could seriously be a few pounds better than his current mark of 131, especially as he ran off 134 last time out. He has three top three finishes from three runs at this track, he stays well beyond 3 miles, he has 2 wins and a place from 5 soft ground outings and has 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 3 and regarding his layoff, he goes well after a break finishing 232 in three efforts after an absence of 7 to 12 months.

He is trained by Sue Smith and due to be ridden by the excellent Danny Cook and together this pair are 51/192 (26.6% SR) for 42.3pts (+22% ROI) profit in Class 3 to 5 handicap chases, from which...

  • male runners are 51/190 (26.8%) for 44.3pts (+23.3%)
  • those priced (ISP) at 6/4 to 7/1 are 43/150 (28.7%) for 38.8pts (+25.9%)
  • on Soft ground : 26/85 930.6%) for 29.8pts (+35%)
  • at trips beyond 3 miles : 15/48 (31.25%) for 33.4pts (+69.5%)
  • here at Wetherby : 9/34 (26.5%) for 6.9pts (+20.4%)
  • and when it's Sue's only runner of the day : 7/14 (50%) for 22.3pts (+159.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Betbright, Paddy Power & Ladbrokes at 4.55pm on Wednesday with Coral offering slightly better at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Please note, I've been in Prague for the last five days and I'm travelling home this afternoon/evening, so Tuesday's pick will go out much later than usual. Hopefully before 11pm, but keep an eye on the site/social media to be sure!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.15 Lingfield : Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 Made all, set steady pace until quickened over 2f out, held on well to win by 0.75 lengths...

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 4m1f on Good To Soft ground worth £25,024 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding with four wins and three places from his last nine efforts over fences and he has won three of five starts on good to soft ground, including two from three over fences.

His yard is in good form too with Sue Smith's runners winning four of eleven over the past seven days, with five of the seven "losers" managing to make the frame.

Since 2012, Sue's handicap chasers racing at trips of 2m5f and beyond on ground with the word soft in the going description are 42 from 297 (14.1% SR) generating level stakes profits of 121.8pts at an ROI of some 41%.

And, of those 297 runners, those that were Sue's only runner at a given track that day went on to win 7 of 31 (22.6% SR) for 36.6pts (+117.9% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Delusionofgrandeur @ 5/1 BOG which was available from around a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2016

Friday's Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Chelwood Gate @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left, headway when not clear run inside final furlong, kept on, went 3rd close home, having been given far too much to do!)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Haydock:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cloudy Too @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This horse was a 15 length winner in a higher grade last time out and looks well set to be the latest heavy ground winner for Sue Smith, whose horses are 60/338 (17.8% SR) for 89.7pts (+26.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2008 and in respect of ths contest, those 338 mudlarks are...

  • 46/239 (19.3% SR) for 85.3pts (+35.7% ROI) in handicaps
  • 44/232 (19% SR) for 54.4pts (+23.4% ROI) when running 11 to 45 days since their last outing
  • 43/195 (22.1% SR) for 104.6pts (+53.6% ROI) over fences
  • 16/79 (20.3% SR) for 66.8pts (+84.6% ROI) at the ages of 9 & 10
  • 15/55 (27.3% SR) for 15.9pts (+28.9% ROI) from LTO winners
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 16.7pts (+278.2% ROI) from those who won by 15 to 30 lengths last time out.

And since the start of 2009, Sue Smith's heavy ground handicap chasers running 6 to 60 days after their last run are 28/132 (21.2% SR) for 66pts profit at an ROI of 50%, of which...

  • 8-12 yr olds are 24/94 (25.5% SR) for 86.6pts (+92.1% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 7/25 (28% SR) for 24.7pts (+98.8% ROI)
  • LTO winners by 5 to 30 lengths are 4/10 (40% SR) for 18.92pts (+189.2% ROI)

Had you backed Cloudy Too in each of 32 starts to date, you'd have found yourself with 8 winning bets (25% SR) and level stakes profits of 14.3pts at an ROI of 44.6% and a quick look at today's race conditions has given me numerous grounds for optimism; here are just 11 of those reasons!

  • he is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 6.27pts (+22.4% ROI) going left handed
  • in fields of 5 to 12 runners, he is 8/25 (32% SR) for 21.3pts (+85.2% ROI)
  • he has won 6 of 22 chases (27.3% SR) for 11.84pts (+53.8% ROI) profit
  • in handicap races, he is 5/20 (25% SR) for 6.24pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • when sent off at 7/1 or shorter, he is 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 32.3pts (+230.7% ROI)
  • this is a good time to catch him, as he has 5 wins from 14 runs (35.7% SR) in the months of January to March, producing profits of 16.52pts (+118% ROI)
  • in handicap chases, his record stands at 4 wins from 14 (28.6% SR) for 7.82pts profit at an ROI of 55.9%
  • here at Haydock, he is 2 from 6 (33.33% SR) for 6.74pts (+112.25% ROI)
  • and in chases here, that record becomes 2 from 5 (40% SR) for 7.74pts (+154.7% ROI)
  • on heavy ground, he has 3 wins from 4 (75% SR) for 15.4pts (+384.9% ROI) and never out of the first three home with three of those four races being here at Haydock
  • he has already won two of four Grade 2/3 races for profits of 7.22pts (+180.5% ROI)

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Cloudy Too at 11/2 BOG with Hills, who are best priced at present (7.00pm), whilst there's plenty of 5/1 BOG to be had elsewhere. To see if that's still the case...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Haydock

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2016

Friday's Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Keen in rear, ridden 2f out, never near leaders)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vendor @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Firstly, trainer Sue Smith's record here in Wetherby handicap hurdles since 2008 stands at 1 wiiners from 79 (13.9% SR) for 22.8pts (+28.8% ROI) profit with her Class 3 runners winning 8 of 32 (25% SR) for 45.6pts (+142.6% ROI) and her LTO winners are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 12.2pts (+101.8% ROI)

And her Class 3 runners who won last time out are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts at an ROI of 175.4%.

Next, we should look at how Sue's horses fare in the mud. Since 2008, her horses are 59/325 (18.2% SR) for 95.2pts (+29.3% ROI) profit, of which handicappers are 45 from 229 (19.7% SR) for 87.9pts (+38.4% ROI).

Of those 229 handicappers, hurdlers are 15/76 (19.7% SR) for 17.1pts (+22.5% ROI) with those priced at 6/4 to 8/1 winning 10 of 42 (23.8% SR) for 12.5pts (+29.7% ROI) with a record ovver the last two years of 7 winners from 23 (30.4% SR) for 14.4pts (+62.4% ROI)

And finally, Vendor himself. This 8 yr old was a course winner here at Wetherby last time out, when landing a 2m handicap hurdle by nine lengths six weeks ago on soft ground, so conditions shouldn't be an issue and confidence in his ability to follow up is boosted by the fact that...

...Over the last 4 years, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by four lengths or more last time out, three to sixty days ago are 271/1045 (25.9% SR) for 232pts (+22.2% ROI) profit, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 16 to 45 days ago are 106/520 (20.4% SR) for 153.7pts (+29.6% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 130/491 (26.5% SR) for 149.7pts (+30.5% ROI)
  • those now running at 2m 1f to 2m 4.5f are 111/372 (29.8% SR) for 195.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
  • and those running on soft/heavy ground are 110/372 (29.6% SR) for 118.6pts (+31.9% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.00pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Vendor and that's at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 who are currently the standout price. To see if that's still the case, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Wetherby!

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2015

Friday's Result :

3.05 Doncaster : Present Flight @ 7/2 BOG PU at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2nd, jumped badly right 6th and 7th and headed, tailed off and pulled up after 12th. The vet reported he'd bled badly from the nose)

Saturday's selection runs in the...

1.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swing Hard @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Trainer Sue Smith is 4 from 14 in the last seven days whilst jockey Danny Cook has 10 winners from 53 over the past month so both come here in good form to combine with Swing Hard who is no stranger to this course and distance, having won this very race 2 yrs ago off a mark just 2lbs lower than today and he has shown recent signs of a return to form himself.

Moreover, Sue Smith has a good record here at Gosforth Park, with her sub-14/1 runners winning 22 of 148 (14.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 19.6pts (+13.3% ROI) since 2008. And whilst those profits are relatively modest by SotD standards, there are a few angles worth exploring from those 148 runners that apply to this contest...

  • her male runners are 22/146 (15.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+14.8% ROI)
  • those aged 5 to 9 yrs old are 22/123 (17.9% SR) for 44.6pts (+36.3% ROI)
  • those running at Classes 2 to 4 are 18/106 (17% SR) for 29pts (+27.4% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-08 to 11-05 are 17/93 (18.3% SR) for 46.9pts (+50.4% ROI)

And finally... the 5 to 9 yr old males carrying 10-12 to 11-07 in classes 2 to 4 are 13/50 (26% SR) for 61.5pts (+123% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 6.25pm?

A 1pt win bet on Swing Hard at 7/2 BOG which is widely available, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2013

Markttag failed to see out the full 10f yesterday and despite leading approaching the final furlong, was soon headed and weakened noticeably, eventually finishing back in 6th as the 4/1 jt favourite, well backed from our advised 6/1.

He finished a good 15 lengths behind the winner and 4 lengths away from getting us an E/W payout.

We've got a 10-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase to consider today as we tackle the...

2.50 Wetherby

Despite a slow start to this winter campaign (no winners from five) Sue Smith generally comes to the fore at this time of year. Disregarding the longshots, her record in the month of October is usually very good. Since 2010 and applying a maximum odds cap of 12/1, she has saddled up 14 winners from 63, a strike rate of 22.22% generating level stakes profits 30.8pts which equates to a 48.9% return on stakes invested.

With a 6/1 odds cap, the figures are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 14.66pts (+52.4% ROI) profit, whilst a cap of 4/1 yields 9 winners from 16 (56.25% SR) and profits of 20.27pts  or 126.7% of stakes.

Sue has three runners here today and whilst I wouldn't completely disregard the E/W chances of either Coverholder (at 11/1 in the 3.25 race) or No Planning (at 9/1 in the 3.55 race), my selection today is the 7/2 shot Stagecoach Pearl, who will be ridden by Jonathan England (who will also ride Coverholder).

Jonathan has had an excellent year aboard Sue Smith's horses, winning on seven of their twenty-nine outings together with that 24.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 15.75pts or 54.3% of stakes. As above, he has also done better on the more favoured horses and has a 6/17 (35.3% SR) record on those priced at 6/1 or under, returning at 10.53pts (+61.9% ROI) profit.

And with those (as today) priced at 4/1 or under, that record becomes 5 from 9 (55.56%SR) for 10.94pts (+151.6% ROI) profit. Not bad work if you can get it.

Stagecoach Pearl is no mug either and although he hasn't quite hit the heights of his excellent 2012 campaign, there's no doubt that he's got talent: 8 wins and 6 places from 29 runs is testament to that and it's less than a year ago that he was finishing third in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree against some decent horses, including Wishfull Thinking who was second that day.

He comes here well rested from a six months break and although he's top weighted here, Jonathan England's 5lb claim will be very useful/helpful on his return to the track and when you consider he was running off a mark of 150 a year ago and off 145 at Cheltenham in March, this race represents a massive drop in class/ability for him as he comes here to run off 135 (effectively 130 with the jockey claim), despite his last victory coming off 146 for which he received a further 6lb hike.

He's basically very well treated at the weights if showing anything like his form of last year and to date he has 10 top-three finishes from 13 runs at today's trip, winning on four occasions with two wins and a place from four runs on good ground over this 2m trip.

I've taken 7/2 BOG about Stagecoach Pearl with Bet365, but William Hill and Paddy Power are both at the same price, so I'd suggest that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Wetherby

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Here is today's racecard!

 

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st October 2013

I don't make a habit of slating jockeys for how they ride my selections and I'm not going to have a dig at the inexperienced Ciaran McKee here either. The run from To The Sky was just ridiculous yesterday, he set about a 2m 1f hurdle race, as it were a run down a straight mile against quality horses.

It didn't take very long before he'd opened up a twenty-lengths lead on the rest of the pack, who were running at a more realistic pace and it came as no surprise to see our pick completely run out of steam, get caught and subsequently passed to the point where he only finished fourth, another 20 lengths from the winner.

I attach little / no blame to the inexperienced jockey as it's highly likely he was running to orders, but it isn't fair on punters who have put their money down. Anyway, the upshot was that our 8/1 BOG selection finished 4th at 7/1.

We're off to the North East today for another 2m 1f hurdle race aka the...

2.20 Sedgefield

Where Wakanda is today's sole runner for Sue Smith, who'll be looking to kick October off in the same manner as she has done for the last six months. In fact 21 of Sue's last 100 runners have won their races, producing 40.37pts profit in the process.

But I'm particularly interested in her runners over the next month, for she has a fantastic record in the month of October. Her record in October over the last three years runs out at 14 winners from 71 runners: a very respectable 19.72% strike rate producing 22.8pts profit, a return of almost a third (32.11%). Of the fifteen runners priced at 4/1 or under, there were nine (60%) winners generating a massive 21.27pts profit (+141.8& ROI).

Wakanda runs in only his third ever race today, after two runs in Ireland (won a 2-mile maiden hurdle LTO) for Tom Taaffe he now makes his yard (and UK!) debut for Sue Smith.

As well as that excellent record in October, Sue has a pretty good record with horses taken from other yards. She hasn't actually taken that many in the past, but she does seem to be able to get a fine tune out of them first time up. In fact, over the last seasons, there have only been 52 such runners, but 10 (19.23%) of those horses have won on their first start for the yard, helping followers to a decent profit of 17.8pts, or 34.23% of stakes.

Those figures are based on all 52 runners, but the numbers get even better when we only consider those with some support in the market and the optimum conditions are those running at an SP below 7/1, where the record reads 9/21 = 42.86% SR for 31.57 pts (+150.33% ROI) profit. And the yard is 3/6 for 13.16pts over the 2012/13 period!

As this is only Wakanda's third outing, there isn't a deluge of information forthcoming but I can tell you  that he's a son of Westerner and was well beaten (10th of 11) on debut in a bumper at Naas on soft to heavy ground before impressing in victory on his hurdling debut at Sligo in mid-July. He wasn't always fluent that day, but kept up to his work and stayed on well to win by seven lengths going away on much better ground, more like he'll face today.

He obviously carries a penalty for that win, as does his main market rival Saint Thomas for his win 18 days ago at Bangor, but Wakanda is far less exposed than Saint Thomas it is thought that the Sligo contest was of a higher standard than the Bangor race.

I should also add that Sue Smith's runners over obstacles have a good recent record here at Sedgefield. In the 2011/13 period she has saddled up 17 winners from the 54 sent off at odds of 7/1 or under. That's a strike rate of 31.5% showing profits of 36.5pts, or 67.6% of stakes.

The three separate sets of stats point towards a win for Wakanda today, so I'm placing my 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG with Bet365, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Sedgefield

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The card for today's race is right here!

 

Trainer Stats: 30th April 2013

HaggasAndy Newton’s got six more yards to look out for this week on his ‘Hot Trainers’ list....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 29th March 2012

Sue Smith Is In Red-Hot Form At Present

Sue Smith has fired in SIX winners since Andy Newton mentioned her last week, so see who's on his trainers 'hot list' this week. Read more