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Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is another one who's hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon's yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today's jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan '18) and now seeks to improve his handler's already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris's runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn't for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including...

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

...and from the above... 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today's runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which...

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is another one who's hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon's yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today's jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan '18) and now seeks to improve his handler's already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris's runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn't for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including...

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

...and from the above... 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today's runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which...

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.25 Ascot : Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Held up in mid-division, pushed along chasing leaders and switched left over 3f out, ridden and hung right 2f out, stayed on in 3rd towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 5, 3yo+ novices handicap hurdle contest over 2m on good to soft ground...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 4.5 lengths when last seen 29 days ago.

His trainer Chris Gordon's record here at Plumpton since the start of 2013 stands at 25/149 (16.8% SR) for 99.6pts (+66.8% ROI) and those 149 runners include...

  • at Class 4/5 : 23/127 (18.1%) for 91.2pts (+71.8%)
  • males are 22/123 (17.9%) for 114.3pts (+92.9%)
  • handicappers are 22/114 (19.3%) for 87.3pts (+76.5%)
  • hurdlers are 15/107 (14%) for 63.5pts (+59.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds are 18/99 (18.2%) for 115.7pts (+116.9%)
  • those ridden by Tom Cannon : 18/95 (19%) for 98.2pts (+103.4%)
  • at 2m4f and shorter : 19/82 (23.2%) for 133.4pts (+162.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 12/80 (15%) for 43.2pts (+54%)
  • novices are 8/33 (24.2%) for 75.4pts (+228.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/15 940%) for 4pts (+26.5%)

PLUS...Chris Gordon + handicap hurdles + LTO winners 1-30 days ago + 2009-17 = 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 16.8pts (+30.5% ROI), including...

  • 6 to 30 days since last run : 13/52 (25%) for 19.8pts (+38.1%)
  • males are 12/46 (26.1%) for 23.1pts (+50.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 13/41 (31.7%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 6/31 (19.4%) for 1.5pts (+4.8%)
  • 7 to 9 yr olds are 9/24 (37.5%) for 29.3pts (+122%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%)
  • on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 13.81pts (+138.1%)
  • here at Plumpton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.2pts (+88.2%)
  • and running at the same C&D as LTO : 3/6 (50%)

AND...more generally : 2012-17 / hcp hurdles / males who won LTO by 4 lengths or more 1-45 days earlier = 391/1479 (26.4% SR) for 259.5pts (+17.6% ROI) from which those running over the same C&D as that LTO win are 47/145 (32.4%) for 74.4pts (+51.3%).

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.25 Ascot : Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Held up in mid-division, pushed along chasing leaders and switched left over 3f out, ridden and hung right 2f out, stayed on in 3rd towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 5, 3yo+ novices handicap hurdle contest over 2m on good to soft ground...

...featuring a 7 yr old gelding who was a course and distance winner by 4.5 lengths when last seen 29 days ago.

His trainer Chris Gordon's record here at Plumpton since the start of 2013 stands at 25/149 (16.8% SR) for 99.6pts (+66.8% ROI) and those 149 runners include...

  • at Class 4/5 : 23/127 (18.1%) for 91.2pts (+71.8%)
  • males are 22/123 (17.9%) for 114.3pts (+92.9%)
  • handicappers are 22/114 (19.3%) for 87.3pts (+76.5%)
  • hurdlers are 15/107 (14%) for 63.5pts (+59.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds are 18/99 (18.2%) for 115.7pts (+116.9%)
  • those ridden by Tom Cannon : 18/95 (19%) for 98.2pts (+103.4%)
  • at 2m4f and shorter : 19/82 (23.2%) for 133.4pts (+162.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 12/80 (15%) for 43.2pts (+54%)
  • novices are 8/33 (24.2%) for 75.4pts (+228.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/15 940%) for 4pts (+26.5%)

PLUS...Chris Gordon + handicap hurdles + LTO winners 1-30 days ago + 2009-17 = 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 16.8pts (+30.5% ROI), including...

  • 6 to 30 days since last run : 13/52 (25%) for 19.8pts (+38.1%)
  • males are 12/46 (26.1%) for 23.1pts (+50.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 13/41 (31.7%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 6/31 (19.4%) for 1.5pts (+4.8%)
  • 7 to 9 yr olds are 9/24 (37.5%) for 29.3pts (+122%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%)
  • on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 13.81pts (+138.1%)
  • here at Plumpton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.2pts (+88.2%)
  • and running at the same C&D as LTO : 3/6 (50%)

AND...more generally : 2012-17 / hcp hurdles / males who won LTO by 4 lengths or more 1-45 days earlier = 391/1479 (26.4% SR) for 259.5pts (+17.6% ROI) from which those running over the same C&D as that LTO win are 47/145 (32.4%) for 74.4pts (+51.3%).

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Rob Robin @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power, SkyBet & ToteSport at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.55 Kempton : Star Storm @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 9/4 (Held up, in mid-division, not clear run over 2f out, soon switched left, never on terms)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Markov @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Jockey Tom Cannon is 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 4.25pts profit (+60.7% ROI) on Ben Pauling's horses so far this year and that our starting point, as they team up here with a 6 yr old gelding who was a runner-up in both PTPs that he contested before winning a bumper on his debut under Rules at Fontwell almost three weeks ago.

He needed every inch of the trip that day and I would suggest that with the stamina shown in those two heavy ground 3m PTP efforts, that the step up to 2m5f should be more to his liking.

And then we come to the trainer Ben Pauling himself. Ben has a record of 10 wins from 35 (28.6% SR) for profits of 13pts (+37.2%) here at Towcester since the start of 2014, whilst more generally over that same time frame, his LTO winners are 19/65 (29.2% SR) for 18.3pts (+28.1% ROI), from which...

  • non-handicap races : 12/31 (38.7%) for 29pts (+93.4%)
  • Class 4 contests : 8/19 (42.1%) for 20.4pts (+107.5%)

and with Class 4 non-handicappers winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 20pts (+222.2%)...

...we'll have a ...a 1pt win bet on Markov at 7/2 BOG available at 6.25pm on Tuesday from Bet365 and BetVictor, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Trainer Stats: 29th March 2012

Sue Smith Is In Red-Hot Form At Present

Sue Smith has fired in SIX winners since Andy Newton mentioned her last week, so see who's on his trainers 'hot list' this week. Read more