Tag Archive for: Trainer/Jockey stats

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/07/22

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to this excellent report, we also offer the following fully functional free racecards for your consideration...

  • 2.21 Newbury
  • 3.28 Ripon
  • 3.30 Newbury
  • 3.57 Newmarket
  • 5.45 Doncaster
  • 7.00 Haydock

and I think I'm going to have a peek at a decent-looking Flat stayers' handicap aka the 2.21 Newbury, an 8-runner (fingers crossed it stays that way), Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 2m½f on good ground...

This race looks super competitive and a quick glance at the early market suggests that Gold Maze might struggle and is priced at 20/1, but the other seven runners are currently (4pm) covered by a 7/2 to 8/1 blanket which might mean we don't get an E/W bet from this, but one might stand out as a win bet.

WITHHOLD was a good second of twenty, beaten by less than two lengths over 2m4½f at Goodwood almost a year ago, but was well beaten (42L) in midfield in the Cesarewitch at the end of the season. Looked like he needed the run at Chester last month when only 6th o7 after 245 days off and should bget closer here. Former C&D winner (3yrs ago) wears a visor for the first time.

RESHOUN was a runner-up only beaten by a length over 2m5½f at Ascot last time out and won the 2m4f Ascot Stakes there last year. A mark of 101 and a drop in trip asks serious questions about him, though, but he is a former C&D winner (2yrs ago), his yard are coming into form and his jockey rides this track well.

ROCK EAGLE has a good overall record, making the frame in 8 of his 15 starts and has won 3 of 11 on turf, but his form lately has been a bit disappointing, beaten by the best part of seven lengths on each of his last two runs when 6th of 11 at Haydock and then 8th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes last time out, where he was 3.25 lengths behind Reshoun above, but he is 5lbs better off this time, his jockey is in good nick and has some good recent results for this yard.

GOING GONE has been a decent Class 3/4 handicapper in his short career so far and handled the step up to class 2 well last time out, when he also raced in the Ascot Stakes, making the frame in 4th place, only 2.5 lengths behind the eventual winner. He was a length clear of Reshoun and is better off at the weights here, so should confirm his superiority for a yard that does well with stayers.

GOLD MAZE was a Group 3 runner-up in Ireland over 1m2f back in June 2020 and finished mid-division in that year's Epsom Derby, but since moving to the UK has failed to shine on four races for two different trainers. Has never raced beyond 1m6f and is up in trip by more than half a mile here in what looks a desperate move, although his current yard do have a decent record with runners trying new trips.

RAINBOW DREAMER has won here over 2m2f, is a regular winner at the 2m type of trip and is 5 from 9 under jockey Hollie Doyle, but his best frm has come on the all-weather and he hasn't actually won on the Flat since his 2m2f success here way back in April 2017. He has admittedly only raced six times on turf since, but hasn't looked like scoring. On a more positive note yard & rider work well together.

DIAMOND BAY also hails from a yard that has done well with stayers, but could do with getting some winners together (0/21 in the last month). This horse had four wins and a runner-up finish over a 5-race spell from around this time last year elevating himself from a 65-rated Class 6 handicapper to a Class 2 mark of 89 in April this year. Sadly the upper 80's have been tough for him as testified by finishing 8th of 10, 10th of 16 and 4th of 8 before a drop in OR to 85 saw him get to within a short head of winning again last time out. He's up in class here, but off the same mark and could well be involved.

AURIFEROUS looks up against it here, even if getting weight all round. Yet to win on turf after 12 attempts, but he has made the frame five times, the most recent of which was probably his best run on the Flat when 2nd of 7 here over course and distance in April beaten by just 0.75 lengths. The winner, 3rd place and 5th place have all gone on to win since, but Auriferous is 0/3 and off 2lbs higher than that run, it's hard to see him landing this.

We've course winners, distance winners, course and distance winners, runners who like good ground and those with decent Class 2 experience and the easiest way to know who has done what is via Instant Expert...

...where immediately Auriferous' poor Flat record stands out. Admittedly, it's a small sample size, but this is a tough race to try and get off the mark. Reshoun has had plenty of tries at Class 2 and has four wins, in fact all his career wins are at this grade, but he doesn't appear to like good ground and would probably want it a bit softer/slower. Good, though, to see some blocks of green for going, course and distance.

At the risk of constantly repeating myself, I'll just remind you can play a major part in Flat & AW racing, but I'm of the opinion that over two miles, there's plenty of time to undo a bad draw, especially in a fairly small field. Fingers crossed, the draw stats will back me up...

And they sort of do, but sort of don't. There's just not enough data if truth be told. There are very few good ground 2m contests here at Newbury nowadays, but the ones above have been shared around. And I'm going to have to use those same widened criteria for the pace analysis or we'll have nothing to look at!

And as expected, there's not enough data to make any assumptions, but here's how the field have raced in their most recent outings...

...and I'd expect Going Gone to set the pace, Auriferous to race prominently, Gold Maze in mid-division and Reshoun to be held up based on their fairly consistent approaches of late.

Summary

With little Instant Expert data and practically nothing on pace/draw, we really need to base a decision on what we gleaned from the card and from the race history of our runners. To those facts, we can then add that unknown 'gut feeling' and I try to make an assumption that if pace/draw aren't being relied upon, then you should go with the one you think would fare best.

To that end, I'm more interested in Going Gone, Diamond Bay and Rock Eagle as my tricast/trifecta hopefuls. As I intimated much earlier (before the school run!) when doing the preview, there's not going to be an E/W bet today, as this trio are priced (6pm) at a best priced 7/2, 11/2 and 5/1 respectively and with one other runner also priced at 9/2, you can see how tight it might be.

It's at this point that we should probably walk away and make a mental note to settle in front of a screen at 2.20 an enjoy what should be a cracking race without the pressure of losing any money. I'll probably have a really small tricast/trifecta perm for a bit of interest to justify my time spent on the race and if pushed to nominate a possible inner, I'd probably side with Diamond Bay for some value, but I'm not parting with much money at all.

It's OK to not have a bet and the Geegeez ethos has always been that if you can't see a bet, there is no bet.

I hope you enjoy the race, irrespective of whether you decide to play or not and I trust you'll have a great weekend in the sun.