Tag Archive for: Wincanton

Tix Picks, Saturday 09/11/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Aintree, Chelmsford, Doncaster, Kelso & Wincanton

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with a huge guaranteed pot offered at Wincanton of all places. Let's head there for six races on good ground starting with...

Race 1 @ 12.35, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4-6yo Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...

Sorceleur had a win and two places in four bumpers, including a 3rd of 11 in a Listed contest at Cheltenham and was only beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 at the Aintree festival. he was then a runner-up on his hurdles debut at Exeter 18 days ago before returning to that venue to win by three lengths yesterday. If he runs today, then I don't see any of the others beating him.

Of his rivals, I'd probably side with Clinton Lane, who won by a neck at Plumpton recently off the back of a 138-day absence, so he should come on for the run and he has won two of his last five.

Race 2 @ 1.09, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f...

Tedley and Dreaming Blue both come here on hat-tricks, but the latter has been out of action for nearly seven months. Duke of Luckley has been in the first three home in seven of his last eight over fences, winning twice including last time out and this is reflected in Instant Expert's 2-year place overview...

...and it'd be Tedley and Duke of Luckley for me based on form and that graphic above.

Duke of Luckley was withdrawn whilst writing the column, so I've followed the market and replaced him with Beau Balko

Race 3 @ 1.45, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m5½f...

Sabrina won two starts ago, but was pulled up last time out and hasn't raced for six months. Pretending won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham in April, had six months off and came back with another Class 2 win at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick.

The Height of Fame looks in the grip of the assessor after her mark went from 101 to 115 after results reading 1612 and she has toiled in a couple of races since. Bethpage has also shot up in the ratings with a hat-trick in the spring/summer taking her from an opening 91 to 109, a mark off which she still finished third of eleven at Worcester in July before a three month break. She returned to action a month ago to finish as a runner-up off 112 and she should go well off that mark today.

Larchmont Lass probably found 3m+ too much for her last time out, but she had been 4th of 17 in a Grade 2 handicap at Newbury prior to that run and the drop in trip should help her here, but the one to beat on form is possibly Mermaids Cave, who has four wins and a place from her last six and comes here off the back of a two length win at Bangor 11 days ago, despite coming off a 4-month break.

From a stats perspective, Pretending's yard is in good nick...

...as are the yards of The Height of Fame...

...and Mermaids Cave...

...and I think it's Mermaids Cave for me today ahead of Pretending and Larchmont Lass.

Race 4 @ 2.23, a 5-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Novice Chase over 2m4f...

Insurrection and Boombawn were second and third separated by just a shirt head in a Listed race at Chepstow four weeks ago, but I prefer the former of the two, as he has the better set of previous results and that run last time out was his first crack at fences, so should come on for the run. Glynn was a runner-up at Wincanton last time out, ending a run of three straight wins over fences but he's up in class here.

Handstands make a chase bow here after finishing 1116 in his four hurdles run, the only blot being his run in a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, so no disgrace there and if he takes to fences, his win in a Listed event at Huntingdon in February shoes his potential. That said, he hasn't raced for eight months.

Soul Icon always seems to find one (or more) too good for him and he has been the runner-up in each of his last four, but was only beaten by a neck in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but might also need the run after four months off.

On actual chase form, I'd take Insurrection and then Glynn, but (a) Glynn might be outclassed here and (b) I'm worried that chase debutant Handstands might bring his hurdles form with him, so it's Handstands and Insurrection for me.

Race 5 @ 2.55, a 3-runner, 4yo+ Grade 2 Hurdle over 1m7½f...

Rubaud has won seven of his fourteen hurdle races and recently returned from a six-month break to win a Listed contest at Kempton just as he did last season and he now attempts to repeat last year's win in this contest too. Aspire Tower tuned up for this race by wining a 4-runner hurdle, but that was his first win after eight straight defeats and this looks a much tougher assignment and it's quite likely he's the last of the three home today, because Brentford Hope looks a better prospect despite a 193-day absence.

Brentford Hope was useful on the Flat and has brought that ground speed to his hurdles game, where he has only failed to make the frame once in twelve starts, winning five times and was a runner-up in a 24-runner Listed contest last time out and although I don't think he beats Rubaud here, he's on my tickets as back-up.

Race 6 @ 3.30, a 10-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1f...

Remastered clearly has ability as three wins and a narrow runner-up defeat from his last nine will testify, but on the other hand he has been pulled up in four of the five defeats in that sequence, so it will depend which Remastered we see here. Forward Plan has finished in the frame in 9 of 10 chases, wining 4 times, but might need a run after seven months off, whereas Riskinthegorund was third of eleven at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, albeit at Class 3.

The Changing Man usually goes well on his seasonal bow and comes here off the back of a good runner-up finish at Uttoxeter back in March. He was only beaten by a length and a quarter that day, but 22 lengths clear of the pack, so if he improves upon that, he's in the mix, Mofasa's yard (Paul Nicholls) has won this race in four of the last seven years

And whilst Mofasa is no Frodon (the 2022 winner), he has shown some promise so far and will no doubt have been aimed at this one and the yard has a great record here just 9 miles from home. Lord Accord is also of note, finishing 431 over hurdles before winning here by 16 lengths in a course and distance chase three weeks ago, but he is up two classes today.

When I looked at chase place form over the last two years on Instant Expert, only three runners had 2 blocks of green under today's conditions...

...and although up in class here, Gustavian is 8lbs below his last winning mark, has been third in two of his last three starts and his yard (Anthony Honeyball) won this race last year, although stablemate Lord Baddesley is shorter in the market.

That said, front runners have done well over this track & trip and the head of the pace averages looks like this...

Overall, I still fancy the prospect of The Changing Man on his seasonal reappearance, but Remastered and Gustavian are longshots who might well outrun their odds. I'll take this trio but in a safety first approach also add Lord Accord at the expense of Forward Plan and Mofasa.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Clinton Lane & (4) Sorceleur

Leg 2: (1) Beau Balko & (3) Tedley

Leg 3: (2) Pretending, (10) Larchmont Lass & (11) Mermaids Cave

Leg 4: (3) Handstands & (4) Insurrection

Leg 5: (1) Rubaud & (3) Brentford Hope

Leg 6: (2) Remastered, (6) The Changing Man, (9) Lord Accord & (10) Gustavian

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Have a great weekend!
Chris

Monday Musings: Mr Vango and a Wincanton Fandango

So we’ve seen the first day declarations for Cheltenham, writes Tony Stafford. Ballyburn was duly taken out of the opening Supreme Novices’ Hurdle leaving Willie Mullins with only six of the 12 declared runners. At time of writing, he has 13 of the 24 in Ballyburn’s race, the 2m5f opener on Wednesday.

As four of those run tomorrow, he can only have a maximum of another eight to help with the owners’ badges – you get a lovely lunch there. More’s the pity, I won’t be partaking of it myself this year.

Willie has contented himself with just the one back-up to the now unbackable State Man in tomorrow’s Champion Hurdle. He also runs Zarak The Brave for the double greens, Messrs Mounir and Souede, one of his host of top juveniles from last season. He twice contested big races – though not the Triumph – against Lossiemouth and did well to run her close in a Grade 1 at Punchestown last May.

The home team of four is emotionally led by the wonderful Not So Sleepy, not just the best, but most versatile 12-year-old in training, still around 100-rated on the flat and twice a winner of the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, last December switched to Sandown, for Hughie Morrison and Lady Blyth.

That he could run away from such as Love Envoi, 2nd to Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle last year, You Wear It Well, successful in the mares’ novice in 2023, and Goshen, back to life with a win at Exeter on Friday, tells his quality. As indeed does his official rating of 158, easily the highest of the home contingent and third only behind State Man (169) and Irish Point (159), winner of his last four with progressive ease for Gordon Elliott.

Last week I expressed my sympathy and embarrassment at not realising the extent of Mark Bradstock’s illness to which he succumbed a few days after his final recorded training success with Mr Vango at Exeter.

Knowing his lifelong determination and just how deeply the late Lord Oaksey felt about Cheltenham and National Hunt racing in general, it was always long odds-on that his daughter and Mark’s widow Sara would keep the show going and that he would take up his engagement in the 3m6f National Hunt Chase for amateur riders.

It will be her first runner since, but she had the training of Carruthers for three seasons in point-to-points after he retired from the NH scene as a previous Hennessy Gold Cup winner and will have been right there in the middle of the training of their Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Coneygree.

If that horse could be prepared by their small team to see off the might of Willie Mullins, Noel Meade, Jonjo O’Neill, Oliver Sherwood, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Venetia Williams, Nicky Henderson, Henry De Bromhead et al nine years ago, then why not a repeat against one each from Willie and nephew Emmet Mullins, Gordon Elliott and a trio from home stables of Ben Pauling, Anthony Honeyball and Lucinda Russell?

None of the sextet ranged against him have won over the distance of his Exeter success – three miles, six furlongs - and no doubt the market is being unduly influenced by the cowardly 132 mark allotted for that win by the official handicapper.

I thought 20lb rather than 12lb would be the minimum. The field at Exeter contained a trio of last-time winners and as commentator Mike Cattermole said as they came to the 14th of the 21 fences: “It’s anyone’s race”. Mr Vango had made all to that point, and apart from a first-fence faller, the other six were still in touch. All three-mile winners, they simply were steamrollered in the last phase of the content as Mr Vango’s exceptional stamina kicked in and he stretched ever further clear.

Rarely do you see races where the leader is more than a fence clear of his still-competing rivals and that was the case as he jumped the last and over the winning line, with of an official 60 lengths margin over a recent previous course and distance winner. I bet Ben Jones wished he could turn amateur for one race tomorrow.

Instead, we have Gina Andrews, easily the best lady amateur riding and multiple (ten times!) point-to-point lady champion. She knows her way around Cheltenham at the Festival, too, having won on Domesday Book for Stuart Edmunds in the 24-runner Kim Muir Chase for amateur riders at 40/1 seven years ago.

Her tally is fast approaching 600 wins, with her points score on the way to 500 and under Rules on 91 with 84 over jumps and seven on the flat. As with Patrick Mullins in Ireland, who habitually has a succession of steering jobs (maybe not quite) in bumpers, Gina can keep the weekends going with regular wins for her husband Tom Ellis, trainer king of the point-to-point field. She is about as amateur in proficiency terms as Patrick and just as capable – while she gets most of her on-course practice, unlike him, jumping fences.

Straight after Exeter, Mr Vango was a 25/1 chance. The first entry stage came soon after and there were only ten entered and his price stayed unaltered. Now the overnight declarations feature three absentees, one each for Willie Mullins, Elliott and Pauling, leaving all three with a single runner. Yet you could still (or so they said, ha!) get 25/1 first three each way with bedfellows Coral and Ladbroke.

As a very infrequent punter these days and then in the minute category I can reprise one of the most frustrating days ever of my life at Wincanton on Thursday. I’d gone with my friend Kevin Howard to watch his mate Fred Mills’ horse run in a novice hurdle.

Kevin drove, a pleasure as well as a rarity for me, and he needed to use the brake pedal only once – for ten seconds, all the 152 miles from near Brentwood. Coming back was even easier – rush hour M25 no problem. Tunnel straight through.

In between it was a nice surprise to see the amazing Lynda Burton in the owners’ dining room. “It’s my last day as we’ve moved to Berkshire from down here. I’ve been here for nine years and will be at Cheltenham next week and don’t worry, I’ll still do Newmarket,” she said. Collective sigh of relief from owners and their friends all around the country at that news!

After all the pluses, it was what happened when I thought I’d have a tenner each way on my nap bet in the William Hill Radio Naps Table, in the 2.45 at Lingfield, that everything turned sour. While Kevin was in the paddock, I went off to watch Roger Teal’s hitherto out-of-form sprinter Whenthedealinsdone at Lingfield.

Peter Collier – he’ll be around the Mullins team all this week – said there’s a William Hill down the track, so I passed plenty of Tote terminals and ended up in the tiny shop. The outsider signage was bold enough but the two-man operation inside a small square area signalled to me just how much betting shops on racecourses in the UK have declined.

In the one in the main enclosure at Newmarket, once thronged with punters and with four or five people taking bets, now even on the big days it feels like an abandoned aircraft hangar and it’s almost a case of being asked by the staff, “Can I take a bet please?”

Anyway, Whenthedealinsdone is 20/1, so I write out my wager and as one punter was at the far till, peopled by a gentleman of some years, so you would have thought considerable experience, the other was the province of a much younger man.

I passed over my £20 note and slip, forbearing to state the price, which after an unnecessarily long interval for him to find it, he finally called back – “20/1”. So far, so good.

I waited and waited and after a while, with the field beginning to go in the stalls, he disappeared from the front vantage point. He emerged from under the counter brandishing what looked like a large toilet roll but of course it was a till roll. He proceeded to try to fix it in place - to no avail. With no customer to serve, one would have thought Mr Robertson might have suggested to his junior: “Give us the bet!” but no, Mr Experience said: “You’re doing it wrong. Let me show you.” That’s experience in all its majesty!

So “show you” he did. Meanwhile, my betting slip and crisp bill of monetary exchange languished somewhere in the ether on the other side of the counter. My hopes were dashed already as they exited the stalls, and when, after never looking like winning, Whenthedealinsdone ran on strongly for a close 3rd – designated the “eyecatcher” in the following morning’s Racing Post, dashed they proved to be.

Meanwhile till roll now in place to the satisfaction of both Mr Experience and Master Clueless, the latter, without any explanation passed back the same £20. At least he didn’t replace it with four grubby fivers. Little consolation. I’d done £30 in cold blood and it grated on me all day – indeed all week!

Of course, I pretty much lost my rag, asking for Mr R’s name and he pretty much gave it away before clamming up. “We mustn’t tell you”, he said, reasonably enough in these troubled times. It just occurred to me, do they still have the betting disputes people at the track? Presumably not. [They do – Ed.]

In the old days bookmakers were overwhelmed by many “slow bet” merchants who waited until their horse or dog was in contention before passing over the money undetected when they were inundated with punters screaming to get on. Now the boot’s on the other foot. Slow cashiers.

Why not, as everyone knows. Bookmakers offer a price but, on the phone, they’ll go away and want to lay you a fraction of it if anything at all – that’s my mates rather me talking.

There are a couple of aftermaths for this passage of play. The last show for Whenthedealinsdone was 20/1, as Master Clueless correctly called it back to me. Within seconds of the finish the SP came back and was 14/1. You may say, the game (bookies’ version) isn’t straight. It’s certainly one way traffic!

Also, while I’ve been writing (immediately after the final field was known) the 25/1 first three bookies’ offer on Mr Vanga is already down to 16/1. I’m sure it will be much less again by tomorrow. Good luck Sara and owners, the Cracker and Smudge partnership.

- TS