The Best Ratings In The World?

If Carlsberg did ratings...

If Carlsberg did ratings...

It's a very (very!) bold claim, I know, but in today's post I want to introduce you to geegeez' new speed ratings, and to try to explain and/or validate the headline statement.

As well as that, I'll introduce the man behind the ratings, and I've come up with a related competition which is both fun to enter, and has awesome prizes.

First up, then, let me introduce you to the speed ratings, and the man behind them.

The job of creating a ratings set, if those ratings are to serve any valuable purpose whatsoever, is a gargantuan one. I have personally long harboured romantic notions about burning the midnight oil over many moons, refining and perfecting a set of winning ratings.

The reality is that life - business, family, horse racing - gets in the way and, in any case, there is no guarantee that after all the labour the numbers would stack up. A sensible alternative was to track down an existing ratings set with three key factors in its favour:

1. Proven at winner-finding over a period of time

2. Under the radar

3. Profitable

There is a fourth element which relates to cost effectiveness and, therefore, to being able to secure the figures for geegeez subscribers. Happily, that box gets a tick as well.

The problem with the major ratings - Timeform, Racing Post Rating, and the like - is that there is a 'determinism' to them. That is, they are factored into the betting markets.

These days, with odds compilers having ready access to that info ahead of time, it's unclear whether the driver is cause or effect... but the key is that, while these ratings are good at finding winners, they are not good at making profit, because the odds are stifled by the volume of backers and by the cautious nature of the layers to the 'number' horses.

That's why it was fundamental for me to locate a ratings set that was under the radar. This normally means finding a very smart 'mad professor' type who is largely unconcerned by the world of marketing; and agreeing a licensing deal, which works well for both parties, with said very clever person.

Introducing the man behind the numbers...

And that's precisely the arrangement I've struck with Dr Peter May, a man some of you may already be familiar with. He's a serially published author, he wrote for Raceform Update and others (including attheraces.co.uk currently), and he is as scientific an aggregator of speed data as I know. And he has a cracking little website where he sells all sorts of interesting data here.

His methods eschew established practices such as the use of standard times, in favour of an iterative algorithmic approach based on neural networks. Neural what?! You can read more about neural networks here if you'd like to but, in the same way you don't need to know how a car runs to drive one, it's not necessary to understand the machinations under the bonnet to derive utility from these figures.

Dr May, or Peter to his friends, has a degree in Mathematical and Computer Science; a Masters in Expert Systems; and, a PhD in Artificial Intelligence. He is responsible for authoring the only racing book I ever started but couldn't finish, Forecasting Methods for Horse Racing.

I have read a number of Peter's other books, and I found them much more accessible, largely by dint of the fact that they had almost no complex algebraic theorems published between their covers!

So that's the man, but what of his ratings?

Ask fifty people who have produced ratings, or fifty people who have used ratings, how to use a set of numbers output from a ratings algorithm, and you will generally get a different response every time. One response you will probably not get is, "back the top rated blindly in all races".

That's because such an approach has so little finesse to it, such market agnosticism, that it cannot possibly be profitable. Except that with Dr May's ratings, it was.

From the start of 2012 to the end of 2013, Peter's top rated selections made a profit of 670 points at Betfair SP, blindly backing the top rated pick in the over 13,000 races on the flat in that time.

You will NEVER see Timeform publish the profit/loss figures for their top-rated, nor Racing Post Rating. That's because they habitually lose a stack. Take a look at the below table, which makes for eye-opening and instructive reading:

Favourite top, RP Ratings bottom

Favourite top, RP Ratings bottom

That is the current 'Press Challenge' table, as at 27th August 2014, taken from the Racing Post.

Your first 30 days for just £1

We can see that 'the favourite' outperforms every single daily newspaper tipster. And look, there at the very bottom of the table... is the Racing Post Ratings' performance.

Backing the jolly blindly would have lost you 7.43% of your dough - a slow and mildly pleasurable punting death.

Backing Racing Post Ratings top-rated would have been a much painful and rapid descent off your wagering mortal coil.

I use the above for illustration only. Because, as I said, it is not the intention of anyone that produces a rating set for its users to back top rated picks blindly. But, if you can do that and make a profit - or even get anywhere close to making a profit - then surely the opportunities for more selective use of such prophetic data are rife.

How best to use these brilliant ratings...?

That of course is the million dollar question. And the answer is... you decide.

Now before you get up and walk out, let me explain.

The man behind the numbers has produced a sort of 'system builder' tool. More accurately, it's an analysis tool, which allows users to try out various scenarios on the top rated selections under various conditions.

Dr May's software tools allow us to look at different age groups and/or different race types, and run a whole array of scenario against them very simply. The video below shows how easy it is to do.

And that gave me an idea for a competition. In the video below, I've come up with a scenario which looks like a profitable angle to use in conjunction with Peter's top rated selections. So what I want you to do is to experiment with the profiler tool and come up with your own ideas for profitable angles.

The best idea - judged by me and my helpers here at geegeez - will win a lifetime subscription to Geegeez Gold... which also means a subscription to Dr May's excellent speed ratings.

And one runner up - coming up with either a flat or a National Hunt angle - will win a year's subscription to Geegeez Gold, worth £197. Not bad, eh?

Here's how to enter...

1. Watch the video below

2. Install the software on your machine [Note, I'm sorry but I cannot answer technical queries either about the installation or the usage of the software. There is help at the link shown in the video].

DOWNLOAD THE SOFTWARE HERE

3. Play around with some scenarios. Then, when you've found an interesting looking angle - either back or lay, flat or National Hunt...

4. Leave a comment below. Include your name, the code (i.e. flat or NH), and your angle in the comment. Please copy the angle details into the comment, and include the wins, runs, win% and Profit/£ figures, as outlined in the video. We will naturally be checking the ones we like best, so no making it up! 😉

Competition closes next Friday, 5th September. Here's a full video walkthrough of how to use the tool and enter the competition. 

Good luck!

The PJM Speed Ratings will be live on geegeez.co.uk, for Gold subscribers, from Monday 1st September. If you're not currently a subscriber, you can take a ten day free trial here.

I'm very excited to be able to share Peter's ratings as an addition to what many people are saying are the most comprehensive and easy-to-use set of form tools and race cards available in Britain. And, with a ten day trial, you're welcome to judge that perception for yourself. 🙂

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
76 replies
  1. Matt Bisogno says:

    EXAMPLE ENTRY

    Matt Bisogno

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: September October November December
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
    Using Exchange Prices

    29 wins / 131 runs 22% strike rate
    0.96 Profit/£

    Good luck to all entries!
    Matt

    p.s. you can post as many entries as you like 😉

  2. Paul Harrsion says:

    Paul Harrison

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 40 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 2yo to 6yo
    For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 28 days
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    33 wins / 113 runs – 29% S/R
    0.95 ROI

  3. dolphin68 says:

    Hi Matt…This is a nice piece of software to mess around with….not too sure I’ve achieved what I’ve tried to do here…but the results are interesting.

    lto Newmarket Maiden System.

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: Newmarket
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 6f
    Condition Not Set
    Months: March April May June
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 16.00/1
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Maiden
    Using Industry SP

    36 runners 17 winners 47% strike rate
    1.59 Profit/£

    Possible draw back small sample size?

    The thinking behind this is based on the idea that the early season maidens at Newmarket are usually contested by the better stables and so horses even finishing a long way behind the winners of these races tend to come on for the run (can be seen by clicking the Distance Beaten Lto tab) and have a decent strike rate next out.

    Not quite sure that I’ve incorporated this into the above?

    Anyway something to get the ball rolling….

    Best

    Martin

  4. dolphin68 says:

    Martin Cooper (lto Newmarket Maiden System with slight tweak)

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: Newmarket
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 6f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: March April May June
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 16.00/1
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Maiden
    Using Exchange Prices

    34 runs 17 wins 50% strike rate
    2.11 Profit/£

  5. Graeme says:

    Hi Matt
    I can’t download the software, as our anti-virus is picking up a virus in the file.
    Regards
    Graeme

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Graeme

      I’m guessing you’re using Norton, and I understand the message is saying it doesn’t recognise the program, rather than that there is any problem with the program. It passed my anti-virus (AVG), and I’ve run a full check on my system with nothing identified, so I’m as confident as I can be that it’s a warning not a denial.

      Hope that makes sense,
      Matt

    • Lynne says:

      Hi Graeme,
      Just to add to Matt’s answer:- my Norton has blocked it because of Trojan.ADH.2 which I’m guessing is your problem too. It’s a low risk Trojan which ‘could’ be used maliciously but I’m guessing isn’t in this case! I turned off Norton (right click on the icon and disable for 15mins) and installed again. I had to re run the extraction as Norton had removed the .exe file. Now it is installed and I’ve turned Norton back on. It has popped up again saying ‘analysing the security risk of Trojan ADH2…Trojan removed and computer secure ‘. The program seems to be running fine and Norton has stopped whinging so I think it is ok to do this.

      Lynne

      • Matt Bisogno says:

        Thanks Lynne. I also checked with Peter directly, and his reply is below:

        Hi Matt

        The file is not infected. I’m guesing that the user uses Norton which on thier website state:

        “If one or more files on your computer have been classified as having a
        Trojan.ADH.2 threat, this indicates that the files have suspicious
        characteristics and therefore might contain a new or unknown threat.
        However, given the sensitive nature of this detection technology, it may
        occasionally identify non-malicious, legitimate software programs that also
        share these behavioral characteristics. ”

        Hope this helps.

        Peter

  6. Rob Watson says:

    Years: 2009 to 2013
    All races except fillies’ only events
    For horses aged 3yo to 10yo+
    For horses carrying 8-02 to 10-00
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 9.00/1
    Course Winners Only
    Distance Winners Only
    For horses off the track between 2 to 28 days
    Class Movement: Same class Up in class
    Class Movement: Same distance Up in distance
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 9.00/1 Last Time Out
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Exchange Prices

  7. hpaul73 says:

    Paul Harrison
    NH Course winners

    Race Grade: Handicap Chase
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 5yo to 9yo
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 10.00/1
    Course Winners Only
    For horses off the track between 0 to 52 days
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Hcap Hdl Race NonHcap Chs Hcap Chs Hunter Chs
    Using Exchange Prices

    116 wins / 407 runs – 29% SR
    ROI 0.33

  8. graham ashford says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Listed Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: May June July August September
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 2yo to 6yo
    Using Exchange Prices

    53 wins/261 runs 20% strike rate
    2.45 profit/£

  9. bilbao says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield Sandown Southwell Wolverhampton
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 10yo+
    Using Industry SP
    TRAINERS
    P BURGOYNE WINS 7 RUNS 39 WIN%18 PROFIT 1.56
    P R CHAMINGS WINS 7 RUNS 15 WINS % 47 PROFIT 2.22
    R A TEAL WINS 3 RUNS 12 WIN % 25 PROFIT 2.77
    T D EASTERBY WINS 4 RUNS 17 WIN% 24 PROFIT 1.85

    SYSTEM TRN ON AW

    BILBAO

  10. James Cross says:

    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 16.00/1
    Wins in last three races: 0 1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 33.00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced Not complete Unraced
    Using Industry SP

    This is for 3yo hurdle races only.
    14 Wins / 43 runs 33%
    £1.52 profit /£1

    How do you change the settings from Industry SP to Betfair SP?

  11. James Cross says:

    Race Grade: 3-y.o Hdl Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 16.00/1
    Wins in last three races: 0 1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 33.00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced Not complete Unraced
    Using Industry SP

    14 Wins / 43 runs 33%
    £1.52 profit /£1

    Just the same system as above, only this time I managed to copy all the criteria.

  12. Hud says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Maiden Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 4.00/1
    Using Industry SP
    Trainer R Beckett
    10 wins 14 runs 71% SR 0.69 Profit/£

  13. Hud says:

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: Maiden Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 4.00/1
    Using Industry SP
    167 wins from 398 runs 42%SR 0.08 Profit/£

  14. Hud says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Conditions Stakes
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Using Industry SP
    6yo Only
    4 win from 10 runs 40% SR 1.13 Profit/£

  15. Hud says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Listed Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Using Industry SP
    8yo Only
    2 wins from 4 runs 50% SR 4.50 Profit/£

  16. Hud says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Using Industry SP
    16-20 Runners Only
    1 win from 7 Runs 14% SR 3.86 Profit/£

  17. Hud says:

    Never played with any tool like this. I am sure there will be loads of people thinking they’ve got angles now. Not sure if the winner of the competition is going to be whoever gets the highest profit/£ or if sample size is going to be taken into consideration also. I only played around there for half an hour and barely scratched the surface off what this analyser is capable of.

    Best of luck to you all.

    Hud
    Belfast

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Hud

      Good point, and yes, it will absolutely be a combination of strike rate, sample size, and profitability, allied to good old common sense (i.e. not obviously ‘convenience fitted’)

      Best,
      Matt

  18. Twospoons says:

    Very small but select bunch, but seemingly very profitable

    Race Grade: All Handicap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses rated 150 to 185
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 4 / Runs 9 / Profit 3.94

    IF you restrict this to 30 days since last run then the profit increases to 4.47 from 3 wins / 7 runs.

    Just backing top rated from Victor Dartnall in handicap hurdles (no rating restriction) produces 7 wins from 16 runners with a profit of 2.09 and The Twister produces a profit of 3.13 for horses running more than 60 days since last run (3 wins from 11 runs)

    Paul

  19. Twospoons says:

    Amazing what you can come up with when you can’t sleep – this analyzer could become a bit addictive!

    Another relatively small but very profitable angle

    Race Grade: All Handicap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: 2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f
    Field Size: Any
    Race Distance: 2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: January February March April November December
    Race Class: Class 2 Class 3 Class 4
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses carrying 10-12 to 11-10
    For horses rated 100 to 119
    For horses off the track between 60 to 90 days
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 8 / 25 runs / profit 7.23

    Interestingly, if you focus only on horse priced 18/1+ then the strike rate becomes 56% (5 wins / 9 runs – this includes 2 wins from three runners priced at 40/1+) to produce a pretty staggering profit of 20.33.

  20. mozzer says:

    Field Size 8 to 15 runners
    Months: September October
    Race Class: Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 5yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 9-07
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    Course Winners Only
    Fourth Run+
    Pos LTO: Unplaced
    Using Industry SP
    Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    100% 5 5 100% 2.80

    Not many runners, but hard to beat 100pc

  21. scouse says:

    Hi Mat for some reason I cant obtain the sound so it’s rather chines at present, but I get the gist of it I will look forward to his speed ratings from Monday they will add another arrow
    to the bow when laying, incidentally my prices are between 4.7/5.4.

    Yours Bob.

  22. Bing says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
    Genders: geldings
    For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 10.00/1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 14 days
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 62/Runs 257
    Profit £0.42/£1

    I have long favoured backing geldings on the all weather, especially in longer races. I think strength is important in these races which is why I’ve gone for 4yo’s to 6yo’s (Some horses older than that win obviously but in general I’m not fond of backing horses much older than that on the flat).

    I also think good recent form is a big factor on the AW hence the placing and number of days rule and I don’t think there’s much mileage in backing short prices so none of my systems would include runners below 5/2.

  23. Bing says:

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 6f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: April May June
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Second Run Third Run
    Pos LTO: Unplaced
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 82 / Runs 348
    Profit 31p/£1

    This is based on the premise that 2yo’s that have run enjoy an advantage over unraced rivals, particularly in the early part of the season. That’s borne out by the returns which show a profit of 64p in the £1 in April, 28p/£1 in May and 21p/£1 in June. In July it would actually show a loss and this diminishing return is surely related to some extent to the fact that percentage wise there will be less newcomers in opposition. (The April figure is from only 53 selections).

    The reason for only including horses unplaced on their last run is that it is more probable that the market may underestimate such horses – I used to have a system based on speed figures for 2yo’s and the best results were from those that were top rated and had finished between 4th and 7th on their last outing.

    It is common for horses to improve massively on their 2nd run and significantly on their 3rd run (unless they are going for a handicap mark !!!) hence that stipulation.

    What we have then is top rated horses that are potentially overpriced and likely improvers. Seems like dynamite to me !

  24. Bing says:

    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 6f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: April May June
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 2.50/1 to 999.00/1
    Second Run Third Run
    Pos LTO: Unplaced
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 46 / Runs 262
    Profit 42p/£1

    Oops – having said in an earlier system that I wouldn’t include selections below 5/2 I forgot to put the price stipulation in this system

    Removing all runners below 5/2 actually improves the percentage return by 11p in the £1 and by my calculations you would make 2.16 points more profit from 86 fewer bets;
    a) 262 x 0.42 = 110.04
    b) 348 x 0.31 = 107.88
    a) -b) = 2.16

    There are also 13 qualifiers priced at 40/1 and above, all of which lost. If you removed them you would have 46 wins from 249 runs, a total profit of 123.04 points which equates to 49p/£1.

  25. RonCombo says:

    Hi Matt, looks really interesting but Mac OS won’t accept the download as it’s Windows.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Arthur

      Yes, it is really interesting, but yes, the limitation you outline is true. It’s a Windows program, I’m afraid.

      Sorry about that.

      Matt

  26. Nessie123 says:

    This may seem a bit thick but are the ratings based just on the top rated horse in the field?
    O/R.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Nessie

      The data in the analysis program is based on top-rated selection in each race, yes.

      Matt

  27. qachiever says:

    Here’s a logical laying system with a decent return…taking advantage of fillies at the start of the season

    Race Age: 3-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: March April
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Genders: fillies
    Using Industry SP

    101/110 winning lays at 92% strike rate and 0.67/£

  28. bilbao says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Firm Good to firm
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Using Industry SP
    trainer m johnston
    direction right handed
    races 1470 wins 293 profit £128
    all races not only hcps

    bilbao

  29. stiffjimmyb says:

    … a bit off-topic since I’m not entering the comp as I’m already a Lifetime Gold member (why the hell wouldn’t you be?) but just a note to say that this weekend I’ve been using Peter’s (Sir Peter’s?) ratings coupled with the OR ratings on an all-cards-in-a-meeting basis as Doubles. And it’s turned a VERY nice profit. Where the PJM Speed Ratings weren’t available for a race I used the second-best OR rating instead. Saturday’s racing saw 23/45 Winners (1st Place) and Sunday’s four meetings realised 12 first past the post from 27 runners including Captain Cullen in the 5.05 at Curragh who won at 20/1 !!! Two of the meetings (Curragh & Worcester) produced four first-placed winners, including the aforementioned Captain Cullen @ 20/1 so I wished I’d had the balls to include trebles and above!
    I’ve been monitoring the tools here for long enough to realise that I don’t need anything else tips-wise, so I’ve cancelled all my other tipster services which have been up and down like a barmaid’s [PC filter cancelled] so I’m sticking with GeeGeez for the long haul.
    As a Lifetime Gold member I can’t wait for tomorrow to (continue) profiting from the PJM Speed Ratings and I can only urge my fellow members to stop dreaming about winning a Lifetime Gold subscription and actually buy one – it WILL be the best decision you ever made, and the ONLY tipping service you’ll ever need! For [compared to other tipping services and losing bets] PEANUTS you’ll get the best betting tools and more for life for a VERY modest outlay.
    All I can say is that RP must be quaking in their boots and I hope that Matt doesn’t accept their million-dollar offer to buy the site coz then we’d be back to square one in terms of market prices…
    🙂

    • twood715 says:

      Well said! The race cards along with the race previews, SotD, DD and all the other brilliant features of Geegeez make the site a one stop shop – why would you need anything else? Really looking forward to using the speed ratings aligned with pace analysis, instant expert etc. Well done Matt for pursuing and delivering an amazing and innovative service.

      Terry

    • spartacus says:

      Hi Stiffjimmyb,

      Interesting idea, just wondered if you could expand on the OR / Pjm ratings idea.
      Is it backing both the Top OR and the Top Speed Rating in the race, or
      backing the Top OR when it is also Top Pjm Rated.
      If you could please clarify, I am sure other members would find it useful.

      spartacus

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      They’re in the SR column on the cards, Ian.

      Let me know if any problems,
      Matt

  30. John1405 says:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Weather tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f
    Field Size 5 to 14 runners
    Months: May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 16.00/1
    Using Exchange Prices
    16 wins from 46 runs
    35% strike rate
    Profit 1.37/£

  31. Matteo says:

    Here’s my systems, thanks anyway for the opportunity Matt and sorry if they’re too many!

    PART ONE – I began to focus on the upcoming AW season and maybe there’s something useful for the following months, even if few bets per season. Wolverhampton excluded due to the new Tapeta refitting.

    1) Kempton long distances:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: Kempton
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m
    Field Size: Any
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 1,00/1 to 999,00/1
    For horses off the track between 1 to 99999 days
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 0 2 0% -1,00
    2010 na 1 2 50% 3,25
    2011 na 2 3 67% 3,50
    2012 na 3 3 100% 8,33
    2013 na 1 2 50% 4,50
    All Runners na 7 12 58% 4,08

    2) Lingfield long distance favourites:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: Lingfield
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 5yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 40,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 2 4 50% 0,44
    2010 na 4 4 100% 1,92
    2011 na 1 1 100% 0,80
    2012 na 1 1 100% 1,37
    2013 na 3 3 100% 1,92
    All Runners na 11 13 85% 1,34

    3) Kempton-Lingfield special:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f
    Field Size 2 to 12 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 5yo
    For horses carrying 9-00 to 9-07
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 28 days
    For horses priced between 6,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 2 2 100% 2,06
    2010 na 3 6 50% 0,83
    2011 na 2 4 50% 1,00
    2012 na 2 6 33% 0,46
    2013 na 3 6 50% 0,71
    All Runners na 12 24 50% 0,84

    4) Kempton wonders (don’t know why 2009-2010 are unprofitable years but the last three were amazing):

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: Kempton
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m
    Field Size 5 to 12 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2011 2012 2013
    For horses aged 5yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 3,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 28 days
    For horses priced between 5,00/1 to 33,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2011 na 8 11 73% 3,73
    2012 na 5 7 71% 4,00
    2013 na 3 6 50% 2,58
    All Runners na 16 24 67% 3,52

    5) Kempton 2miles (very skimpy and maybe completely useless, I’ll try to improve it):
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: Kempton
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 2m
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 9-07
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 1,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 60 days
    Class Movement: Same distance Up in distance
    For horses priced between 3,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2010 na 1 1 100% 7,50
    2011 na 1 1 100% 4,50
    2012 na 1 1 100% 7,00
    2013 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    All Runners na 3 3 100% 6,33

    6) Kempton-Lingfield non-hc all distances:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 2 to 7 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 999 days
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 4 7 57% 0,07
    2010 na 4 4 100% 1,62
    2011 na 8 11 73% 0,99
    2012 na 3 6 50% 0,29
    2013 na 4 9 44% 0,05
    All Runners na 23 37 62% 0,54

    7) Kempton-Lingfield-Southwell non-hc all distances:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield Southwell
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 2 to 12 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 999 days
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 12 22 55% 0,02
    2010 na 9 19 47% 0,21
    2011 na 11 18 61% 0,70
    2012 na 5 10 50% 0,20
    2013 na 6 14 43% 0,09
    All Runners na 43 83 52% 0,25

    8) Kempton-Lingfield-Southwell claimers:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Claiming Race
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield Southwell
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 2 to 7 runners
    Months: January February September October November December
    Race Class: Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 1 to 999 days
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 5 6 83% 0,47
    2010 na 2 4 50% 0,50
    2011 na 3 4 75% 1,08
    2012 na 1 3 33% 0,00
    2013 na 2 3 67% 0,62
    All Runners na 13 20 65% 0,55

    PART TWO – some NH angles.

    9) Not-complete lto favourites (a disappointing 2013 unfortunately):
    Race Grade: All NonHcap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Firm Good to firm Good Good to soft Soft
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 3yo to 7yo
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    Market Position Last Time: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Not complete
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2004/05 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2005/06 na 2 3 67% 0,87
    2006/07 na 3 4 75% 1,37
    2007/08 na 2 3 67% 0,71
    2008/09 na 1 4 25% -0,35
    2009/10 na 3 6 50% 0,30
    2010/11 na 2 5 40% 0,55
    2011/12 na 4 4 100% 0,79
    2012/13 na 2 3 67% 0,29
    2013/14 na 0 3 0% -1,00
    All Runners na 19 35 54% 0,41

    10) Mares only hurdle:
    Race Grade: All NonHcap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good to soft Soft Heavy
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: 2 to 15 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    Mares’ Only Races
    For horses aged 4yo to 4yo
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2004/05 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2005/06 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2006/07 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2007/08 na 3 4 75% 0,11
    2008/09 na 5 5 100% 0,61
    2009/10 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2010/11 na 1 1 100% 1,50
    2011/12 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2012/13 na 2 2 100% 1,19
    2013/14 na 3 3 100% 0,64
    All Runners na 14 15 93% 0,62

    11) Mares only chase (useless but the last two years were interesting):
    Race Grade: All Handicap Chase
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: 2 to 15 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    Mares’ Only Races
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2004/05 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2005/06 na 0 1 0% -1,00
    2006/07 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2007/08 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2008/09 na 0 1 0% -1,00
    2009/10 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2010/11 na 0 1 0% -1,00
    2011/12 na 0 0 0% 0.00
    2012/13 na 2 2 100% 1,50
    2013/14 na 3 4 75% 0,54
    All Runners na 5 9 56% 0,24

    PART THREE – some Flat angles.

    12) 2YO non-hc beaten favourites:
    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 7f 1m
    Field Size 2 to 15 runners
    Months: May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 2yo to 2yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 9-07
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 100 days
    Market Position Last Time: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced Not complete
    RaceGrade LTO: Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Listed Stakes Claimer Maiden Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 5 26 19% -0,29
    2010 na 10 23 43% 0,73
    2011 na 8 24 33% 0,31
    2012 na 12 30 40% 0,52
    2013 na 9 25 36% 0,17
    All Runners na 44 128 34% 0,28

    13) 2YO nursery winners:
    Race Age: 2-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 1m 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f
    Field Size 2 to 12 runners
    Months: July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 2yo to 2yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 16,00/1
    Third Run Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 0 to 100 days
    Pos LTO: Won
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 4 11 36% 0,86
    2010 na 3 9 33% 0,15
    2011 na 4 13 31% 0,55
    2012 na 3 15 20% 0,01
    2013 na 5 20 25% 0,12
    All Runners na 19 68 28% 0,30

    14) 3YO 7f handicaps:
    Race Age: 3-Y.O Races
    Race Grade: Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 7f
    Field Size 5 to 12 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 3yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 2,00/1 to 6,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 4,00/1 Last Time Out
    Market Position Last Time: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced Not complete
    RaceGrade LTO: Stakes Claimer Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 3 5 60% 2,35
    2010 na 0 2 0% -1,00
    2011 na 2 5 40% 0,70
    2012 na 2 4 50% 0,81
    2013 na 3 5 60% 1,30
    All Runners na 10 21 48% 1,10

    I’ve reported every single year results to show that there are very very few losing years, unfortunately some systems have limitated selections but I think hundreds of angles like these can build an arsenal. Sorry if I’ve stolen a lot of space, good luck to all!

  32. whiston01 says:

    can stiffjimmyb explain to me how he works out his selections.The O.R is the official handicappers rating so all you are doing is selecting the top rated peter may selection or have i got it totally wrong.

  33. Matteo says:

    Sorry but I’m addicted!

    Yorkshire wonderland:
    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Beverley Catterick Pontefract Redcar Ripon Thirsk York
    Going: Firm Good to firm Good Good to soft Heavy
    Race Distance: 1m1f 1m2f 1m6f 1m7f
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 7yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Listed Stakes Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 10 38 26% 0,17
    2010 na 12 40 30% 0,27
    2011 na 12 50 24% 0,43
    2012 na 10 32 31% 0,98
    2013 na 13 48 27% 0,25
    All Runners na 57 208 27% 0,39

    If we focus on longshot:

    SP LTO Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    18/1 – 33/1 12% 7 18 39% 1,42
    40/1+ 4% 2 4 50% 2,09

    RICHARD FAHEY 7/16 44% 1,27 Profit/£

  34. Matteo says:

    A little variation on beaten favourites lto:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Beverley Catterick Pontefract Redcar Ripon Thirsk York
    Going: Firm Good to firm Good Heavy
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 5yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    Market Position Last Time: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Listed Stakes Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    Year Proportion Wins Runs Win% Profit/£
    2009 na 2 7 29% 0,71
    2010 na 5 7 71% 3,93
    2011 na 1 6 17% 0,67
    2012 na 2 4 50% 2,75
    2013 na 1 4 25% 0,00
    All Runners na 11 28 39% 1,70

  35. chispa says:

    Race Grade: Listed Race
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Soft
    Race Distance: 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f
    Field Size 5 to 12 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2010 2011 2012 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 4yo
    For horses carrying 7-05 to 9-07
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 999.00/1
    Using Exchange Prices

    22 Wins 63Runs 35% SR 1.79/£

  36. Josh Wright says:

    Just playing for fun as i am already a lifetime subscriber…

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 12 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 4yo to 10yo+
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 16.00/1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 60 days
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    20/81 , 25%SR, 0.50/£

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 12 runners
    Months: January February March April
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third
    RaceGrade LTO: Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    13/43 30% SR, 0.77/£

  37. Matteo says:

    North system:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Ayr Hamilton Musselburgh
    Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Heavy
    Race Distance: 6f 7f
    Field Size 2 to 15 runners
    Months: May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    Genders: geldings
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 9-07
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Third Run Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 0 to 60 days
    Class Movement: Same distance
    For horses priced between 3,00/1 to 999,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Listed Maiden Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    2009 – 3/6 – 50% win – 1,13 profit/£
    2010 – 4/8 – 50% win – 1,44 profit/£
    2011 – 1/5 – 20% win – 1,20 profit/£
    2012 – 4/6 – 67% win – 3,46 profit/£
    2013 – 7/9 – 78% win – 3,13 profit /£
    All Runners – 19/34 – 56% win – 2,15 profit/£

    Same conditions but analysing only current non favourites and non favourites LTO:

    2009 – 1/1 – 100% win – 2,75 profit/£
    2010 – 3/7 – 43% win – 1,43 profit/£
    2011 – 1/4 – 25% win – 1,75 profit/£
    2012 – 3/3 – 100% win – 6,67 profit/£
    2013 – 5/7 – 71% win – 3,46 profit /£
    All Runners – 13/22 – 59% win – 2,91 profit/£

    • Matteo says:

      Pleased to see Baron Run winning at 5/1 at Hamilton today on these conditions. Unfortunately I’ve posted the system at the exact time of starting!
      For the record duty there was also Tango Sky in the same race falling withing these criteria but finished only 8th, whatever it’s a good angle

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Matteo,

      You say : “Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Heavy”
      What about Soft ground? Surely you can’t omit soft ground if you’re having heavy?

      Chris

      • Matteo says:

        Hi Chris,
        what you say has much sense but I wanted to exclude soft ground because is the only negative condition, take a look:

        Good to firm – 4/7 57% win 2,32 profit/£
        Good – 6/16 38% 0,67 profit/£
        Good to soft – 6/8 75% win 3,28 profit/£
        Soft – 1/7 14% win -0,36 profit/£
        Heavy – 3/3 100% win 6,67 profit/£
        All Runners – 20/41 49% win 1,72 profit/£

        The system remains profitable but looking at the results I think the soft ground negative is unexplainable, I decided to exclude it mainly for the low strike rate rather than the profit/£. Don’t you agree?

        • Chris Worrall says:

          Unfortunately I can’t agree, but it’s not for me to say!
          Personally, I can’t see how you can leave an isolated detail out of the equation without it all looking backfitted rather than back tested.
          Leave the soft ground runners in and you’ve still got a profitable strategy that looks more realistic.

          • Matteo says:

            I think you’re right Chris, your reasoning is flawless and I repost it. I’m an under-costruction horse bettor and your suggestions are precious to me.

            North system:
            Race Age: All Age Races
            Race Grade: All Handicap
            Tracks: Ayr Hamilton Musselburgh
            Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
            Race Distance: 6f 7f
            Field Size 2 to 15 runners
            Months: May June July August September October
            Race Class: All Classes
            Years: 2009 to 2013
            For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
            Genders: geldings
            For horses carrying 8-00 to 9-07
            For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
            Fourth Run+
            For horses off the track between 0 to 60 days
            Class Movement: Same distance
            For horses priced between 3,00/1 to 999,00/1 Last Time Out
            Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
            RaceGrade LTO: Listed Maiden Handicap
            Using Industry SP

            2009 na 3 6 50% 1,13
            2010 na 4 8 50% 1,44
            2011 na 1 5 20% 1,20
            2012 na 4 10 40% 1,68
            2013 na 8 12 67% 2,48
            All Runners na 20 41 49% 1,72

  38. Matt Bisogno says:

    Another one from me, which is actually an iteration of one of Peter May’s…

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: Any
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 2yo to 7yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses rated 70 to 185
    For horses off the track between 0 to 28 days
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced Not complete Unraced
    Using Exchange Prices

    187/590 32% SR
    0.21 Profit/£

  39. Matteo says:

    Seaside favourites system:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Brighton Yarmouth
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: 5f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f
    Field Size 2 to 12 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 9-07
    For horses rated 50 to 89
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses off the track between 0 to 9999 days
    For horses priced between 2,00/1 to 16,00/1 Last Time Out
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Stakes Claimer Maiden Seller Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    2009 2/7 29% -0,12
    2010 7/10 70% 0,97
    2011 9/20 45% 0,32
    2012 10/18 56% 0,76
    2013 5/12 42% 0,38
    All Runners 33/67 49% 0,50

  40. Matteo says:

    September favourites system:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: September
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 7yo
    Genders: fillies geldings
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    For horses rated 50 to 99
    Market Position: Clear Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Fourth Run+
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 16,00/1 Last Time Out
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    2009 na 8 16 50% 0,42
    2010 na 8 16 50% 0,60
    2011 na 8 23 35% 0,50
    2012 na 7 26 27% 0,00
    2013 na 9 25 36% 0,27
    All Runners na 40 106 38% 0,33

  41. Matteo says:

    Redcar system:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Redcar
    Going: Good to firm Good Good to soft Soft
    Race Distance: 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m6f 1m7f 2m
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: March April May June July August September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 8yo
    For horses carrying 8-00 to 10-00
    For horses rated 50 to 89
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    For horses priced between 3,00/1 to 10,00/1 Last Time Out
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Group 3 Maiden Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    2009 na 2 10 20% 0,23
    2010 na 10 16 63% 3,31
    2011 na 5 12 42% 0,82
    2012 na 3 6 50% 0,90
    2013 na 7 21 33% 0,33
    All Runners na 27 65 42% 1,19

  42. chrismac says:

    Race Edge: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Non-Handicaps
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Turf
    Race Distance: All Distance
    Field Size 13 to 15 Runners
    Months: September October
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For Horses Aged 3yo to 3yo
    Using Exchange Prices

    10/39 26% SR
    15.86 Profit/£

    This looks like an anomaly but the profit figure warrants further investigation and it is current being based on September and October.

  43. maverick99 says:

    Before I post my two entries it’s perhaps pertinent to consider that the database being used has the benefit of historic certainty with the criteria. Having dabbled in the past with similar “system builders” one must always be cautious of selecting criteria that in reality will only be known after the event. I’ve been caught out in the past with “price dependent” selections where the fav is only certain after the race has been run (SP odds) and also with price parameters where because the database uses SP as it’s data an 8/1 priced horse in the morning ends up becoming a 14/1 SP and a 16/1 morning price actually ends up at 8/1 making system selection an absolute nightmare at prices in or around the lower or higher odds parameter.

    That said as we’re reaching the twilight of the flat I thought I’d provide a couple of NH systems that are easy to check and implement as the less criteria used the easier any system becomes to actually follow that also have sufficient selections to provide a reasonable positive probability of future success without back fitting concerns.

    6 YO HC Chase system

    Race Grade: All Handicap Chase
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
    Race Distance: 2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m4f 2m5f 2m6f 2m7f 3m 3m1f
    Field Size: 2 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April May June September October November December
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 6yo to 6yo
    For horses off the track between 0 to 100 days
    Using Exchange Prices

    138/493 28% SR
    Profit £0.69/£

    Long distance Handicap Hurdle system

    Race Grade: All Handicap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good Good to soft Soft Heavy
    Race Distance: 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f 3m3f 3m4f 3m5f 3m6f
    Field Size: 2 to 20 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 6yo to 7yo
    For horses rated 80 to 185
    Using Exchange Prices

    84/418 20% SR
    Profit £0.66/£

  44. maverick99 says:

    As a postscript to the two systems placed earlier – Wakhan Sedge 5.30 (Long distance Hc Hurdle) appears to be a selection today based on the current going forecast of Good. 6/1 currently the best early price.

  45. maverick99 says:

    It’s like Xmas – also El Toreros Sedge 3.25 also qualifies (6 YO HC Chase system) assuming good going who has a best early price currently of 8/1.

  46. Sholto Hedgecock says:

    Here are my pennys worth
    Good luck everyone

    Race Grade: Handicap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good to soft Soft
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size: 8 to 40 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 4yo to 4yo
    For horses carrying 11-00 to 12-07
    For horses rated 75 to 185
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 33.00/1
    Using Exchange Prices
    wins 14 / runs 43 / SR 33% / PROFIT/£1.38

    Race Age:
    Race Grade:
    Tracks: Kempton Wolverhampton
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f
    Field Size 2 to 10 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 6yo to 6yo
    Using Exchange Prices
    wins 32 / runs 140 / SR 23% / profit/£1.58

    Race Grade: All Handicap Chase
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: Good Good to soft Soft
    Race Distance: 2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m4f 2m5f 2m6f 2m7f 3m 3m1f
    Field Size: 5 to 15 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 6yo to 6yo
    For horses carrying 9-07 to 11-07
    Using Exchange Prices
    wins 95 / runs 357 / SR 27% / profit/£ 0.92

  47. malcolm pendrey says:

    I think the best way to use peter may speed ratings are to bet in handicaps only, concentrating on the top 2 rated, as long as they have an early price of 10-1 or higher, as shown on oddschecker site. this would also give bookmaker price available. if the 2nd rated is more clear of 3rd, than it is behind the top rated, then back top-rated and /or the second rated if either or both are available at 10-1 or higher. on 1 sep, emef rock was 4 points behind top rated the dapper tapper, but was 6 clear of the 3rd. emef rock would have been a bet, that won @ 20-1, but the dapper tapper would not have been selected, as was only 5-1, and duly lost.. on saturday, the ratings were free on geegeez. I looked at all the handicap races, and remember oldjoesaid being toprated. I remember thinking @ the time, its well clear & a big price. it won @ 14-1. the above gives a method of considering the top 2; now we need a method of selecting a 14-1 winner like old joesaid. I suggest noting all top rated in handicaps that are at least 10-1 early price, noting how many clear of 2nd they are. After a month, analyse results by level stake
    profit & loss, for each clear.e.g. they might look like this
    top rated by 10 clear = +20
    ” 9 ” = +7
    ” 8 ” = +5
    ” 7 ” = + 6
    ” 6 ” = -3
    ” 5 ” = -5
    ” 4 ” = -10
    this would suggest backing top rated if 7 or more clear of 2nd rated.
    keep ongoing analysis to give a clearer picture.
    there are other things that could be analysed in the same way.
    the going being probably the most important. refering to instant expert would enable to see if can act on the going & if won at distance is another possible factor to analyse.
    analysis of going might be whether won on going or if best rating achieved on going.
    personally, I am not too bothered if a young horse of say 3years has not won over distance, but if for example a 6yo sprinter is top rated in a 6 furlong race, but has has only ever won over 5 furlongs, I would be very wary of backing it.if its not won over 6 furlongs after 4 to 5 years, is it likely to win today? unlikely! this is about as much analysis that I would do, although its
    record in the class of race can be found in instant expert.. all told then, not too time consuming,,but giving selections with a real chance of winning @ big odds.
    looking at the above, this method would have given a 20-1 winner on monday, & most probably a 14-1 winner on saturday, with probably only a few losers to dent an excellent profit.

    regards

    malcolm pendrey

  48. Dave McAuley (@formbet) says:

    They key with generating systems from ratings is to avoid back-fitting by using split-sample testing & applying some logic to the process. There is no point tweaking settings just to get the numbers to look good historically if there is little logic and chance of them being repeatable & also using statistical tools to ensure the system has significance to give confidence results will be repeated in the future.

    Here was my thinking based ‘loosely’ around a method I have used for the last 5 years with great success personally tweaked slightly with the options on offer and called ‘Value Handicapping’ inspired by the great US handicapper Mark Cramer and focusing very much on selectivity, value combined with excellent ratings like the ones produced by Dr Peter May.

    HORSE FILTERS
    ==============

    AGE
    Focus on those aged between 3 and 6 years of age as this is where handicappers tend to hit their peak before regressing.

    NO FILLIES
    Stick to colts and geldings, they are just far more reliable.

    NO FAVOURITES
    The market is a lot smarter nowadays but especially so towards the front-end of the market, the value is when you start going up the price scale especially so on Betfair where the fav/longshot bias is reduced markedly due to the sometime inflated BSP’s.

    FITNESS
    It’s a generalisation, most systems are, but if a horse has had a run within at least 50 days you know that it may not quite be in need of the run as those at 50+.

    FAVOURITE LAST TIME OUT
    Hold on didn’t you say no favourites ? Yeah sure did and this is a key rule here. If a horse was favourite/fancied last time out but is not favourite today then chances are that it may have either lost last time out or it’s win not being rated strong enough in the context of today’s race. Either way these are market overreactions usually to one run last time out and we can exploit that. This also helps bring an element of selectivity to proceedings. Speaking of which…

    POSITION LAST TIME OUT – NO WIN
    Similar to the above but this helps rule out those last-time out winners who may be starting shorter than they should be for today’s race. Joe Public loves to see a 1 next to a horse’s last time out run and we should generally be looking to be contrarian to Joe as much as possible.

    RACE FILTERS
    ============

    RACE TYPE
    All Handicaps, 3yo or All Aged. This I find is where the real value is to be found.

    CLASS OF RACE
    Focus on Class 1-4 contests, anything lower and it’s an additional dice you need to role.

    COURSES
    Focus your attention on quality racecourses, this should give you at least a qualifier most weekends and during the big festivals which is where this approach excels ie. Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newbury Newmarket, Sandown & York.

    There are other logical filters that will help improve results, avoid betting in March/April at the start of the season, avoid horses appearing quickly within 14 days as a bit of rest is a vital exponent for a horse to be showing it’s best, focusing on sprints where speed ratings are at their strongest etc etc

    I reckon if anyone above adds one or more of these filters to their own systems they will see improvement in their return on investment which for me is the mark of a solid set of filters.

    RESULTS
    ========

    This is all about selectivity, logical filters and value – it won’t give you action but ‘action’ is over-rated – profit is where it’s at and staking big when you are getting the best of it !

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: Ascot Doncaster Epsom Goodwood Haydock Newbury Newmarket Sandown York
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Condition Not Set
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 5yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    Market Position: Non Favourites only
    For horses priced between 0.00/1 to 33.00/1
    For horses off the track between 0 to 50 days
    Market Position Last Time: Clear Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced Not complete Unraced
    Using Exchange Prices

    Wins 21
    Runs 85
    S/R 25%
    Profit/£ 1.34 at BSP and 1.05 at Industry SP

  49. Matteo says:

    Maiden AW system:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Maiden Race
    Tracks: Kempton Lingfield Southwell
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f
    Field Size: Any
    Months: January February May June July August September October November December
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 5yo
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    For horses priced between 0,00/1 to 10,00/1
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Group 3 Listed Stakes Claimer Maiden Handicap
    Using Industry SP

    2009 na 21 60 35% -0,03
    2010 na 22 60 37% 0,54
    2011 na 22 69 32% 0,12
    2012 na 30 70 43% 0,09
    2013 na 39 75 52% 0,76
    All Runners na 134 334 40% 0,31

  50. slfmfc says:

    Slfmfc
    Mick McCormack

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April July August September October November December
    Race Class: Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses carrying 8-07 to 10-00
    Fourth Run+
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    wins = 30 Runs = 129 strike Rate = 23% Profit = £1.10

  51. slfmfc says:

    slfmfc
    Mick McCormack

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f 2m2f
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April July August September October November December
    Race Class: Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses carrying 8-07 to 10-00
    Fourth Run+
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    wins = 25 Runs = 93 Strike Rate = 27% Profit = £1.60

  52. slfmfc says:

    slfmfc
    Mick McCormack

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: All Handicap
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Weather
    Race Distance: 5f 6f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m6f 1m7f 2m 2m1f 2m2f
    Field Size 5 to 15 runners
    Months: January February March April July August September October November December
    Race Class: Class 5 Class 6 Class 7
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses aged 3yo to 6yo
    Genders: colts geldings
    For horses carrying 8-07 to 10-00
    For horses rated 50 to 185
    Fourth Run+
    Market Position Last Time: Non Favourites only
    Pos LTO: Won Second Third Unplaced
    RaceGrade LTO: Claimer Maiden Seller
    Using Exchange Prices

    wins = 21 Runs = 71 strike Rate = 30% Profit = £2.14

  53. slfmfc says:

    slfmfc
    Mick McCormack

    Race Grade: Handicap Chase
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: 2m 2m1f 2m2f 2m3f 2m4f 2m5f 2m6f
    Field Size: 13 to 40 runners
    Months: January February March April November December
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    All race age categories
    For horses aged 6yo to 10yo+
    For horses carrying 10-00 to 11-07
    Using Exchange Prices

    wins = 32 Runs = 132 Strike rate = 19% profit = £2.26

  54. Matteo says:

    Berkshire claimers:

    Race Age: All Age Races
    Race Grade: Claiming Race
    Tracks: Ascot Newbury Windsor
    Going: All Turf
    Race Distance: All Distances
    Field Size 2 to 12 runners
    Months: All Months
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2009 to 2013
    For horses carrying 8-08 to 10-00
    Using Industry SP

    2009 na 2 4 50% 0,06
    2010 na 2 3 67% 2,62
    2011 na 1 3 33% 0,83
    2012 na 2 4 50% 0,83
    2013 na 3 5 60% 0,97
    All Runners na 10 19 53% 0,99

  55. slfmfc says:

    slfmfc
    Mick McCormack

    Race Grade: Handicap Hdl
    Tracks: All Tracks
    Going: All Ground Categories
    Race Distance: 2m7f 3m 3m1f 3m2f 3m3f 3m4f 3m5f
    Field Size: 5 to 20 runners
    Months: January February March April November December
    Race Class: All Classes
    Years: 2004/03 to 2013/14
    Excluding 3yo and 4yo races
    For horses aged 4yo to 7yo
    For horses carrying 9-07 to 11-08
    For horses rated 80 to 129
    For horses off the track between 15 to 9999 days
    For horses priced between 2.00/1 to 999.00/1 Last Time Out
    Using Exchange Prices

    wins = 50 Runs = 238 strike Rate = 21% profit = £ 0.98

  56. spartacus says:

    I have always been told, why make complicated / complex rules when simple and easy will do
    just as well.
    What I have found very profitable is to back as follows.
    Handicap Races only. No Selling Handicaps
    Runners 5 – 9 This is actual runners, so check races with 11 runners etc…
    Distances 6f – 1m4f inclusive.
    Simply back the Top 3 Rated.
    Top Rated must have a Rating of 60 minimum
    I will have a look at the 4th Top Rated and if it looks strong I will include, prices permitting.
    If the 4th Rated has Good Course or Course & Distance Form or if
    the Trainer / Jockey has a good profile.
    This seems to work on ALL 3 CODES Flat Turf / A/W / National Hunt
    For National Hunt NO Handicap Hurdles over 2m 6f

  57. spartacus says:

    Sorry Guys, pressed the wrong button hadn’t quite finished.
    No Problem with Handicap Chase Distances.
    I do not use Class 1 or Class 2 Races Too competitive.
    This will give you action most days

    spartacus

  58. maverick99 says:

    Today I had a quick look at the two systems I posted here and saw that there were 3 selections running 3.50 Font Workbench Early Price 4/1, 4.25 Font Royal Native EP 5/2 & Hex 5.40 Presenting Junior EP 9/2 – All 3 won at SPs of 11/4, 11/8 & 5/1. Perhaps as an idea a dedicated system blog or similar e.g. forum so that any subscribers system selections can be posted, shared and obviously monitored in real time?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Sounds like a great idea, maverick99. I’d really like a Gold subscribers’ only forum, for just that. Will look into it.

      Matt

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