2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2026)

Each day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race.

Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival for you!

Onto 'DAY FOUR' and it's Gold Cup Day - did you know - All of the last 23 Gold Cup winners were aged 9 or younger.

You can also see the all the other daily Cheltenham trends 2026 below.

Cheltenham Day One Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Two Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Three Trends 2026
Cheltenham Day Four Trends 2026

Friday 13th March 2026 (New Course)

Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026

1:20 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV

2025 Winner: PONIROS (100/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill Jr
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

• 24 of the last 32 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
• French-breds have filled 16 of the last 27 places (last 11 runnings)
• 15 of the last 21 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (6 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
• 2 of the last 6 winners were fillies
• 9 of the last 14 winners ran in the Spring Hurdle (3 winners)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 12 years
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 6 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)

Negatives….

• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 3 of the last 21 winner returned bigger than 12/1 – last year’s winner 100/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)

2:00 – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV

2025 Winner: KARGESE (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 13 of the last 19 runnings
• 10 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 16 runnings
• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 18 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 17 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13 of the last 27 winners aged 5
• 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 19 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 20 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 22 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 13 of the last 25 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 14 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 10 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts) since 2004-2014
• Willie Mullins is 6 from 61 (+42.25pts) – he’s won 8 of the last 16
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 14 of the last 22 winners were ex-flat horses
• No back-to-back winners ever since first run in 1920

Negatives….

• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-27) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 40 in last 18 runnings
• Since 1960 only 6 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 11 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 4 winners have defied this stat
• Just 3 winning outright favourites in last 24
• Just 4 of the last 18 winners returned a single-figure price

2:40 - Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV

2025 Winner: DINOBLUE (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• Only 5 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 3 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• 4 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 5 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 5 winners rated 150+
• 4 of the 5 winners owned by JP McManus (past 4)
• All 5 winners aged 7-8
• All 5 winners Irish-trained
• 4 of the 5 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• Just one winning favourite (2025)
Negatives….
• UK-trained runners are 0-16
• 9+ year-olds are 0-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-6

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3:20 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa) (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV

2025 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (6/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 21 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 18 of the last 21 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 3 of the last 5 ran in the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle (Nat Lacy) DRF
• 17 of the last 21 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 21 winners had run in the Hyde, Bristol or Classic earlier that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Point
• Horses rated 152+ are 3-5
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 10 of the last 21 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 21 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 21 had run in a race over 3m
• 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 6 (11) or 7 (7) years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 21 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 20 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 3 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• No winning fav in the last 11 runnings

Negatives….

• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-16
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 21)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-15 in the last 13 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 20)
• Only 4 of the last 20 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

4:00 - Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV

2025 Winner: INOTHERWAYURTHINKIN (15/2)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 21 of the last 26 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 25 of the last 26 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 21 of the last 25 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 21 of the last 25 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 23 of the last 26 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 16 of the last 18 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 18 of the last 29 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 23 winners were favourites (52%)
• 14 of the last 21 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 26 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 25 of the last 26 winners aged between 7-9 years-old (12 of last 13 aged 7 or 8)
• 23 of the last 26 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won 6 of the last 7 between them
• The last 7 winners Irish trained (9 of the last 10 Irish-trained too)

Negatives….

• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 79)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 7 from last 59 – but last year’s winner rated 160
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners placed in the race before
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase

4:40 - St James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV

2025 Winner: WONDERWALL (28/1)
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr R James
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses…..

• 31 of the last 35 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 29 of the last 40 won last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10 or 11
• 15 of the last 18 winners ran in February
• 21 of the last 23 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 19 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 17 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 29 of the last 37 started out in Points or Hunter Chases
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 10 of last 15)
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10-11
• 10 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 13, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 14
• 4 of the last 19 winners owned by JP McManus
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
Negatives….
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 49 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 38 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 23 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 276 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Gordon Elliott has never won the race

5:20 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV

2025 Winner: WOODHOOH (9/2)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Danny Gilligan
UK/Irish: Irish

Pluses….

• 15 of the last 17 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 15 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 17 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 8 winners had top-weight
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 to 11-10
• All 17 winners aged 7 or younger (5-7)
• 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or 6
• 11 or the last 14 winners rated 138+
• 15 of the last 17 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 12 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 10 of the last 15 (7 making handicap debuts)
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 14 of the 17 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 9 of the 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 17 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 17 winners returned at a double-figure price (13 of the last 17 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of last 17 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 31 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 15 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 13 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 7
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 11 of the last 13 between them
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 7

Negatives….

• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 77
• Only one winner in last 14 rated 136 or lower (since become 0-145)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 17-year history (9-15 returned in double-figures)
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-121

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Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• 2026 Greatwood Gold Cup Trends
• 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 10th March 2026)
• 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2026)
• 2026 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2026)
• Sat TV Trends: 21st Feb 2026