Sat TV Trends: 28th Oct 2023

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Loads going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.

Yes, jump racing is back at the home of the National Hunt - Cheltenham - with a cracking card of which the first four races are LIVE on ITV. Then at Newbury, we’ve two decent Group Three contests to look forward too, while the LIVE ITV action concludes with three races from Doncaster that are spearheaded by the Group One Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes - a prize that top Irish handler - Aidan O’Brien - has won a massive 11 times!

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)

2.10 – Kameko Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

19/21 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
18/21 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
18/21 – Placed favourites
17/21 - Foaled in February or later
17/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
16/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/21 – Had raced at least twice previously
14/21 – Winning favourites
13/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/21 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
13/21 – Won their last race
12/21 – Had won over a mile in the past
10/21 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
4/21 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 10)
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022
6 horses winners went onto win the Derby the following season: Reference Point (1986); High Chaparral (2001); Motivator (2004); Authorized (2006); Camelot (2011); Auguste Rodin (2022)
The average SP in the last 21 runnings is 6/1

2.45 – William Hill Prospect Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

14/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
14/15 – Foaled in February or later
13/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Carried 9-1 in weight
11/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/15 – March-born foals
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 7 runnings

3.20 – William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

19/19 – Ran 5 or more times that season
18/19 – Had won over 5f before
16/19 – Aged 5 or younger
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/19 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
11/19 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/19 - Carried 8-9 or less
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Winners from stall 1
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Winning mare/filly
10 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
Note: The 2021 running was a dead-heat

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

12.55 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/19 – Foaled in Feb or later
16/19 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
15/19 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19 – Never raced at Newbury
12/19 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
12/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites unplaced
10/19 – Won over 7f before
10/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Foaled in February
7/19 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
1/19 – Winning favourites

1.30 – BetVictor St Simon Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

19/20 – Aged 5 or younger
18/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Had won at least twice before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had at least 4 runs that season
14/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/20 – Rated 106 or higher
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had run at Newbury before (6 won)
12/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
11/20 – Placed horses from stall 6
8/20 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/20 – Won by a filly or mare
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 11)
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/20 – Winners from stall 1
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Note: 2018 running was a dead-heat

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Epic Value at William Hill Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 - Aged between 6 or 8 years-old
8/8 - Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/8 - Last raced 6 months or more ago
7/8 - Had run at the track before
7/8 - Won between 2-4 times over fences
6/8 - Favourites placed (top three)
5/8 - Carried 11-1 or more
5/8 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/8 - Rated between 140-147
3/8 - French bred
3/8 - Winning favourites
3/8 - Won last time out
Before Midnight won the race in 2021

 

1.50 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

10/14 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
10/14 - Had won 2 or less times over hurdles
8/14 – Placed in their last race
8/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/14 – Favourites placed
5/14 – Irish bred winners
4/14 – Irish-trained winners
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Gordon Elliott has won the race twice since 2014
Just 1 winning favourite in last 9 runnings

2.25 – Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
14/16 – Won over at least 3m previously
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/16 – First run of the season
11/16 – Irish bred winners
11/16 – Favourites unplaced
10/16 – Rated 134 or higher
10/16 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/16 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
8/16 – Unplaced in their last race
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/16 – Winning Favourites
Lord Accord (15/2) won the race in 2022

3.00 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

10/14 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
10/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Irish Bred
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Mare winners
2/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

 

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2024 Kameko Futurity Trophy Trends

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The Kameko Futurity Trophy is staged each year at Doncaster racecourse and is for 2 year-olds only.

The Group One race is run over a distance of 1m and is an excellent guide and trial to the following year’s Classics, in particular the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby - backed up in recent years with High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized, Camelot and, most-recently, Auguste Rodin all winning the Kameko Futurity Trophy before going onto take the Epsom Derby the next season, while recent winners – Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko, who the race is named after this year - went onto land the 2,000 Guineas the following season.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race a remarkable 11 times, including in 2022 with Auguste Rodin, who went onto win the Epsom Derby. Ryan Moore is also another jockey making the race his own - with 3 wins since 2017.

Lester Piggott and Pat Eddery remain the winning-most jockeys with 5 wins each. While last year in 2023 the Charlie Appleby team won the race for the first time whrn Ancient Wisdom won the race for jockey William Buick.

Here at GeeGeez we take a look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal.

Kameko Futurity Trophy Winners

2023 - Aincient Wisdom (5/4 fav)
2022 - Auguste Rodin (9/4 fav)
2021 – Luxembourg (4/6 fav)
2020 - Mac Swiney (12/1)
2019 – Kameko (11/2)
2018 – Magna Grecia (2/1 fav)
2017 – Saxon Warrior (13/8 fav)
2016 – Rivet (11/4)
2015 – Marcel (33/1)
2014 – Elm Park (13/8 fav)
2013 – Kingston Hill (7/2 fav)
2012 – Kingsbarns (15/8 fav)
2011 – Camelot (10/11 fav)
2010 – Casamento (2/1 fav)
2009 – St Nicholas Abbey (13/8 fav)
2008 – Crowded House (7/1)
2007 – Ibn Khaldun (11/4 fav)
2006 – Authorized (25/1)
2005 – Palace Episode (20/1)
2004 – Motivator (6/4 fav)
2003 – American Post (5/6 fav)
2002 – Brian Boru (11/8 fav)

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

Kameko Futurity Trophy Betting Trends

20/22 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
19/22 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
19/22 – Placed favourites
18/22 - Foaled in February or later
18/22 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
16/22 – Had raced at least twice previously
15/22 – Winning favourites
14/22 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
14/22 – Won their last race
13/22 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/22 – Had won over a mile in the past
10/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
4/22 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 10)
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022
The average SP in the last 22 runnings is 6/1

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2023 Old Roan Chase Trends

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Run over 2m4f at Aintree racecourse the Jewson Fast Set Finish Old Roan Chase is a Grade Two Limited Handicap contest that gives National Hunt fans a few early-season pointers on how some old favourites will fair over the next six months or so.

It’s run on the Mildmay course, with 16 fences to jump and was first staged back in 2004 – Star names like 3-time winner Monet’s Garden, in which the race is now named after, Albertas Run and Kauto Star are all well-known past winners of the race.

Look out for trainers Nicky Richards (3 wins), Paul Nicholls (3 wins) and Philip Hobbs (2 wins), who both have good records in the race.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at past winners and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2023 renewal – this year run on Sunday 29th October.

Recent Old Roan Chase Winners

2022 - Riders Onthe Storm (16/1)
2021 – Allmankind (9/4 fav)
2020 - Nuts Well (18/1)
2019 – Forest Bihan (9/2)
2018 – Frodon (9/2)
2017 – Smad Place (12/1)
2016 – Third Intention (5/1)
2015 – Sound Investment (7/1)
2014 – Wishfull Thinking (14/1)
2013 – Conquisto (17/2)
2012 – For Non Stop (4/1 jfav)
2011 – Albertas Run (5/2)
2010 – Monet’s Garden (4/1)
2009 – Monet’s Garden (12/1)
2008 – Knowhere (8/1)
2007 – Monet’s Garden (9/4)
2006 – Kauto Star (Evs fav)
2005 – Impek (4/1)
2004 – Farmer Jack (14/1)

Old Roan Chase Betting Trends

17/19 – Won over 2m4f (or further) before (fences)
15/19 – Raced at Aintree in the past
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
11/19 – Raced at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
11/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
10/19 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
9/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
6/19 – Had won at Aintree in the past
4/19 – Had an official rating between 165 and 168
3/19 – Won by the Nicky Richards yard
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/19 - Ridden by Brian Huges (2 of the last 4)
2/19 – Won by a past winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 15/2

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Ascot Champions Day Trends | Saturday 21st Oct 2023

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It’s Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday – one of the big highlights towards the end of the flat turf season with four Group One races, including the Qipco Champion Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, to look forward to.

So as always - here at Geegeez - we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to help find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

1.15 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

18/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
18/21 – Won at Listed or better class previously
17/21 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
16/21 – Won at least 5 times previously
15/21 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
15/21 – Favourites placed
14/21 – Aged 5 or older
14/21 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/21 – Raced at least 5 times that season
10/21 – Won their latest race
10/21 – Raced at Longchamp (4), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (4) last time out
10/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/21 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 12)
4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 8)
3/21 – Trained by Alan King (last 3)
3/21 – Ridden by Hollie Doyle (last 3)
2/21 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 8)
2022 Winner: Trueshan (11/8 fav)
Trueshan won the race in 2020, 2021 and 2022
Since 2011: 6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

1.50 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

20/21 – Won at least 3 times previously
19/21 – Won over 6f previously
19/21 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
19/21 – Raced at least 4 times that season
18/21 – Won at Listed or better class previously
17/21 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
16/21 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
16/21 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
16/21 – Won a Group race previously
14/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/21 – Raced at Haydock (8), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
12/21 – Favourites placed
5/21 – Won their latest race
5/21 – Favourites that won
2022 Winner: Kinross 3/1 fav
Since 2011: 4 of the last 12 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 11 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed in 5 of the last 12 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed in 5 of the last 12 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

2.25 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Raced 3 or more times that season
14/15 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/15 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/15 – Won at least 3 times previously
11/15 – Rated 110 or higher
11/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Aged 3 years-old
10/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/15 – Won over 1m4f previously
9/15 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
7/15 – Won their last race
5/15 – Favourites that won4/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of the last 7)
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 7 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2 of the last 9)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
2022 Winner: Emily Upjohn (3/1 fav)
The last 8 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)
3 of the last 12 winners came from stall 11
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

3.05 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

20/21 – Raced at least 3 times that season
19/21 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
19/21 – Finished in the top three in their last race
18/21 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
18/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
18/21 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
17/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/21 – Favourites placed
13/21 – Won their latest race
11/21 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/21 – Won at least 7 times previously
9/21 – Favourites that won
7/21 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/21 – Trained by John Gosden (4 in total)
3/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/21 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Since 1988 only 2 Filly winners (Persuasive 2017 & Minding,  2016)
2022 Winner: Bayside Boy (33/1)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
3 of the last 9 winners were French-trained
11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.45 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

21/21 – Won at least 4 times previously
19/21 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
19/21 – Aged 5 or younger
18/21 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
18/21 – Won over 1m2f previously
17/21 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
16/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/21 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/21 – Won their last race
9/21 – Raced at either Longchamp (6) or Goodwood (3) last time out
8/21 – Favourites unplaced
8/21 – Returned a double-figure price
6/21 – Favourites
5/21 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/21 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 6)
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 6)
2022 Winner: Bay Bridge (10/1)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

4.25 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 9 previous runnings
8/9 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/9 -  Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/9 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
3/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/9 - Winning favourite
Escobar won the race in 2019
2022 Winner: Shelir (80/1)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 17/1
Trainers William Haggas, Jessie Harrington, Roger Varian, David O’Meara (3), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 5 of the last 9 runnings
The last 2 winners came from stall 11

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2024 Cesarewitch Handicap Trends

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Run over 2m2f on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course the Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the most popular betting races of the season. Along with the Cambridgeshire Handicap, that is run 2-3 weeks earlier, the two races are generally known as the Autumn Double and both contests are always ultra-competitive.

We take a look at the best stats ahead of the 2024 renewal that will hopefully allow you to whittle down the big field.

Did you know - 15 of the last 22 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting, while we’ve seen just four winning favourites since 1993?

Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners

2023 - The Shunter (14/1)
2022 - Run For Oscar (4/1)
2021 – Buzz (8/1)
2020 - Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
2019 – Stratum (25/1)
2018 - Low Sun (10/1)
2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
2011 – Never Can Tell (25/1)
2010 – Aaim To Prosper (16/1)
2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
2008 – Caracciola (50/1)
2007 – Leg Spinner (14/1)
2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (10/1)
2004 – Contact Dancer (16/1)
2003 – Landing Light (12/1)
2002 – Miss Fara (12/1)

Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends

21/22 – Aged 4 or older
18/22 – Carried 9-2 or less
17/22 – Had run within the last 2 months
16/22 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
16/22 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/22 – Aged 5 or older
15/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/22 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
13/22 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
13/22 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
13/22 – Won by a NH trainer
12/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/22 – Had run at the track before
9/22 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/22 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/22 – Placed favourites
8/22 – Ran at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/22 – Winning mares
4/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Winners from stall 1
3/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 6 winners)
3/22 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/22 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/22 - Trained by Brian Meehan
2/22 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The Irish have trained 6 of the last 7 winners
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 21/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

 

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Sat TV Trends: 14th Oct 2023 (York and Newmarket)

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More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 14th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York.

Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know? 16 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9st 2lbs or less

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.

So as always - here at Geegeez - we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.25 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

17/18 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/18 – Had raced at least twice before
15/18 – Won between 1-2 times before
14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
11/18 – Irish bred
7/18 – Godolphin winners
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 8)
4/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 6)
3/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
8 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 9
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race.
Silver Knott (4/1) won the race in 2022

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

2.00 – Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

21/21 – Raced at least 3 times that season
19/21 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
19/21 – Placed in their last race
16/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Favourites placed
15/21 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/21 – Won their last race
15/21 – Won a Group race previously
13/21 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (9) last time out
13/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/21 – Won by an Irish-based stable
11/21 – Favourites that won
8/21 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
7/21 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
7/21 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season (4 won both)
6/21 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
6/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (7 wins in total)
5/21 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/21 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
3/21 – Godolphin-owned winners (3 of the last 11)
2/21 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 4)
1/21 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 of the last 10 winners
Chaldean (5/2 jfav) won the race in 2022

2.40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

20/21 – Aged 4 or older
17/21 – Carried 9-2 or less
16/21 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
16/21 – Had run within the last 2 months
15/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/21 – Aged 5 or older
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
12/21 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
12/21 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
11/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/21 – Won by a NH trainer
11/21 – Had run at the track before
9/21 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/21 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/21 – Winning mares
4/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winners from stall 1
3/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 5 winners)
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/21 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/21 - Trained by Brian Meehan
2/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 20/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

3.15 – Ghayyth Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Won no more than twice before
14/16 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
10/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 - Came from stalls 2 or 3
3/16 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 8
Flying Honours (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022

3.50 Earthlight Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV4

9/10 – Won over a least 1m before
9/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/10 – Listed or Group winner
8/10 – Winners from stalls 7 or higher
7/10 – Had run at the course before (4 won)
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – Winners priced 20/1 or bigger
3/10 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (last 2)
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 - Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

20/20– Had raced within the last 4 weeks
19/20 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
16/20 – Had 4 or more runs that season
16/20 – Foaled in March or later
15/20 – Had never raced at York before
14/20 – Had won over 6f before
14/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
8/20 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Filly winners
4/20 – Winners from stall 2
3/20 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/20 – Ridden by David Allan
The  horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 13 runnings
Alpha Capture (5/2 fav) won the race in 2022

2.25 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

20/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
20/20 – Had won at least 3 races before
19/20 – Had run at York before
19/20 – Had won a race over 6f before
18/20 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
15/20 – Aged 5 or younger
15/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/20 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
11/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Rated between 92 and 98
11/20 – Carried 9-2 or less
8/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/20 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/20 – Won last time out
3/20 - Trained by David O’Meara (3 of the last 7)
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 6 winners)
2/20 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/20 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
4 of the last 14 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Red Strike (12/1) won the race in 2022
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019 and 2020
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017

3.05 Coral Racing EBF Maiden Stakes (Qipco British Champions Series 2YO Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 1m ITV4

Just one past running
Trainer Charlie Johnston is 2 from 10 with his 2 year-olds here
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 0 from 14 with his 2 year-olds here
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 74 with his 2 year-olds at the track

3.35 – Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV4

9/10 -  Returned 11/1 or shorter
9/10 – Won over at least 1m2f before
8/10 – Rated between 95-103
7/10  - Aged 3 years-old
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
6/10 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Carried 9-0 or more
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
4/10 – Had run at the track before
4/10 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
5/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners came from stall 8

 

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Newmarket TV Trends (Fri 13th Oct 23): Future Champions Festival

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More LIVE ITV action on Friday13th October for day one of the two-day Dubai Future Champions Festival at Newmarket. Plenty to get stuck into with the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile the clear feature race, but with the Cornwallis, Oh So Sharp and Challenge Stakes supporting then there is a lot to look forward to.

As always, we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV)

1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV4

18/20 – Had won over 5f previously
15/20 – Won at least twice or more before
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
15/20 – Rated 98 or more
15/20 – Ran within the last 30 days
15/20 – Had raced 5 or more times
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 ½ or less
14/20 – Foaled in March or later
11/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/20 – Filly winners
7/20 – Raced at Ayr last time out
7/20 – Won their last race
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
3/20 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
3 of the last 9 winners trained by Jonathan Portman
2 of the last 14 winners trained by Kevin Ryan
2 of the last 14 winners ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 3
4 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 3 or lower

2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

18/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
17/19 – Had between 1-2 wins already
17/19 – Had between 1-3 career runs
15/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Won last time out
15/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/19 – Foaled in March or later
12/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Had won over 7f or further before
9/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Irish bred
6/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/19 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 6 winners)
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 8)

3.00 – Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV4

20/20 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
20/20 – Won over 7f previously
20/20 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
17/20 – Won 3 or more times previously
17/20 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
16/20 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
16/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
14/20 – Officially rated 113 or higher
14/20 – Priced 7/1 or lower
12/20 – Placed in their last race
11/20 – Favourites placed
9/20 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
7/20 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (4) last time out
6/20 – Won their previous race
6/20 - Favourites that won
2/20 – Trained by Henry Candy
1/20 – Filly/Mare winners
Frankie Dettori has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners

3.35 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV4

9 previous runnings
7/9 – Had won at least twice before
7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/9 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
6/9 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
5/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/9 – Ridden by William Buick
3/9 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
3/9 – Owned by Godolphin
2/9 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
2/9 – Came from stall 17
2/9 – winning favourites

4.10 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV4

19/19 - Finished in the first three last time out
19/19 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
18/19 - Yet to win a Group 1
17/19 – Finished in the first two last time out
17/19 – Foaled in Feb or later
17/19 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/19 – Had won between 2-3 times before
15/19 – Favourites that finished in the top three
14/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Won last time out
13/19 – Had won a Group race before
11/19 - Foaled in Feb or March
10/19 - Winning favourites (or joint)
8/19 - Raced at Doncaster last time out
7/19 – Irish-trained winners
7/19 – Irish bred
5/19 – Won by trainer John Gosden
4/19 - Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 9)
3/19 – US bred
3/19 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
5 of the last 9 winners have been Irish-trained

 

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Sat TV Trends: 7th Oct 2023

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Here at Geegeez, we take you through the eight LIVE ITV4 races this Saturday at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket from a trends angle.

At Redcar, we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - a race a French-trained horse has won 5 times in the last 19 years. Then at Ascot, we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know? 18 of the last 20 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

Use these trends and stats to whittle down the final runners and find the best profiles of recent winner.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/Sky Sports Racing)

1.50 – Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

18/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
18/18 – Won over 5f before
17/18 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Rated 101 or higher
12/18 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/18 – Had won between 3-7 times before
10/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/18 – Unplaced last time out
9/18 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/18 – Irish bred
3/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/18 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Tis Marvellous won the race in 2021
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

2.25 – Jim Barry Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

19/20 - Finished fourth or better last time out
18/20 – Placed favourites
17/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
16/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/20 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/20 – Won at Listed or Group class before
15/20 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
13/20 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/20 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/20 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/20 – Favourites to win
10/20– Won last time out
6/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 8)
2/20 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 5)
1/20 – Filly or mare winners
Hamish (11/10 fav) won the race last year
12 of the last 14 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/14 – Won over 6f previously
14/14 – Officially rated 100 or higher
12/14 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Won 4 or more times previously
10/14 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/14 – Won their previous race
5/14 – Favourites to win
3/14 – Returned a double-figure price
2/14 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 6
8 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream won the race in 2021
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 8 of the last 11 runnings

3.35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
17/20 – Won over 7f previously
16/20 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously
14/20 – Had raced within the last 30 days
12/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/20 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/20 – Raced 7 or more times that season
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
8/20 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
7/20 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/20 – Favourites that won
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/20 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/20 – Won their previous race
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 14 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 14 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 17
Escobar won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Favourites placed in the first three
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Won just once before
3/7 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Roger Varian
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

2.05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Foaled Feb or later
7/8 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/8 – Won from a double-figure draw
6/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
5/8 – Rated between 79-85
5/8 – Won just one before
4/8 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
2/8 – Winning favourites


3.15 – Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

17/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
16/19 – Previous Group winners
14/19 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
13/19 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/19 – Rated between 113 and 119
12/19 – Previous Group One winners
10/19 – Aged 3 years-old
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
6/19 – Raced at Deauville last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/19 – French-trained winners
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 17 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 13


Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.45 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

18/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/21 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
15/21 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
15/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/21 – Foaled in March or later
11/21 – Had won over 6f before
10/21 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/21 – Unplaced favourites
7/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Filly winners
6/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/21 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey

 

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Sat TV Trends: 30th Sept 2023

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The ITV cameras are at Newmarket this Saturday to broadcast four LIVE races, with the Cambridgeshire Handicap their feature. Plus, they are also at Haydock and Chester to take in one race each there - as always, we’re on hand with all the key trends and stats……

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RACINGTV)

1.50 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV3

21/21 – Had won one or two races before
20/21 – Had won over 7f or further before
20/21 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
16/21 - Either US or Irish bred
15/21 – Had only won over 7f before
13/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
12/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
14 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Note: From 2010 back, the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV3

21/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
19/21 – Had won over 6f before
19/21 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
18/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
17/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
16/21 – Had 3 or more previous runs
16/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (1 won it)
14/21 – Placed favourites
13/21 – Won last time out
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/21 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
9/21 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/21 – Winners drawn in stall 6
4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of last 7 runnings)
2/21 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/21 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/21 – Trained by Brian Meehan
11 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)

3.00 - Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV3

20/20 – Won over 6f previously
19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
18/20 – Won their last race
18/20 – Won at least twice previously
17/20 – Had run 3 or more times previously
17/20 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
16/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
15/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
8/20 – Ran at Deauville last time out
7/20 – Favourites that won
6/20 – Won by an Irish-based stable
5/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of the last 6)
2/20 - Trained by Clive Cox
2/20 - Trained by Mark Johnston
2/20 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017,  2018 & 2019

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV3

21/21 – Aged 6 or younger
18/21 – Carried 9-5 or less
17/21 – Won 3 or more times in their career
17/21 – Won from a double-figure stall
16/21 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
15/21 – Unplaced favourites
15/21 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
14/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
14/21 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/21 – Finished 5th or better last time out
13/21 – Rated between 90-100
12/21 – Carried 8-12 or less
6/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/21 – Returned 14/1 in the betting
4/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
3/21 – Won their last race
2/21 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 in total)
The last 8 winners came from stalls 21 or higher
15 of the last 17 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 22/1

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Lester Piggott First To Last Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV3

16/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had won over 5f before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/16 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/16 – Came from stalls 6-11 (inc)
11/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Rated between 92-96
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/16 – Had raced at Haydock before
8/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Ridden by Adam Kirby

CHESTER Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Watergate Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f ITV3

Just 1 previous running
Emiyn won the race in 2022
Trainer Declan Carroll has a 19% strike-rate with this 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrew Mullen is just 1 from 26 (4%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Trends

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Run over 1m1f the Cambridgeshire Handicap is staged at Newmarket racecourse on their Rowley Mile track. First run in 1839 the contest is the first race in what’s known as the Autumn Double, with the Cesarewitch being the other race, which is run in October.

We take a look ahead to the 2023 renewal of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap – giving you the key stats to look out for.....Did you know ALL of the last 22 winners were aged 6 or younger?

Recent Cambridgeshire Handicap Winners

2023 – Astro King (20/1)
2022 - Majestic (25/1)
2021 – Bedouin’s Story (40/1)
2020 - Majestic Dawn (40/1)
2019 – Lord North (9/2 fav)
2018 – Wissahickon (11/1)
2017 – Dolphin Vista (50/1)
2016 – Spark Plug (12/1)
2015 – Third Time Lucky (14/1)
2014 – Bronze Angel (14/1)
2013 – Educate (8/1 fav)
2012 – Bronze Angel (9/1)
2011 – Prince of Johanne (40/1)
2010 – Credit Swap (14/1)
2009 – Supaseus (16/1)
2008 – Tazeez (25/1)
2007 – Pipedreamer (5/1 fav)
2006 – Formal Decree (9/1)
2005 – Blue Monday (5/1 fav)
2004 – Spanish Don (100/1)
2003 – Chivalry (14/1)
2002 – Beauchamp Pilot (14/1)

Cambridgeshire Handicap Trends

22/22 – Aged 6 or younger
18/22 – Carried 9-5 or less
18/22 – Won 3 or more times in their career
18/22 – Won from a double-figure stall
17/22 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
16/22 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
15/22 – Unplaced favourites
15/22 – Had won over 1m2f before
14/22 – Had 5 or more runs that season
14/22 – Finished 5th or better last time out
13/22 – Rated between 90-100
12/22 – Carried 8-12 or less
6/22 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/22 – Returned 14/1 in the betting
4/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Trained by John Gosden (5 in total)
4/22 – Won their last race
2/22 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 in total)
The last 9 winners came from stalls 21 or higher
16 of the last 18 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 22/1

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2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

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Run over 1m4f the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older and staged at Longchamp racecourse.

In recent years, the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 21 winners being aged 3 years-old, while 15 of the last 21 - came here off the back of a last time out victory. Last year we saw we saw the classy mare, Alpinista win the race for trainer Sir Mark Prescott.

The draw has also been crucial in modern times - with a massive 16 of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 8 or lower - backed up again in 2022 with the winner coming from stall 6.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the 2023 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 1st October.

Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

2023 – Ace Impact (19/10 fav)
2022 - Alpinista (33/10 fav)
2021 - Torquator Tasso (72/1)
2020 - Sottsass (73/10)
2019 – Waldgeist (131/10)
2018 - Enable (Evs)
2017 – Enable (10/11 fav)
2016 – Found (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (9/2)
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

21/22 – Had won a Group 1 race before
19/22 – Had won over 1m4f before
17/22 – Had 4 or more runs that season
17/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
16/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Had won at least 5 times before
16/22 – Won last time out
15/22 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/22 – Had run at Longchamp before
13/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Had won at Longchamp previously
12/22 – Aged 3 years-old
11/22 – Won by a French-based yard
9/22 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
9/22 – Female winners
7/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Won by a UK-based yard
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 9)
3/22 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 8 times in all)
2/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
2/22- Trained by J-C Rouget (2020 & 2023)
3 of the last 15 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 9 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 4 winners aged 5 or older
19 of the last 30 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

 

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Newmarket TV Trends: Fri 29th Sept 2023

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Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV3

12/12 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
11/12 – Had won over 1m before
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times before
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
9/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
8/12 – Aged 3 years-old
6/12 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/12 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
4/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/12 – Trained by William Haggas
2/12 -Trained by Richard Hannon
2/12 – Trained by John Gosden
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/12 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013 and 2020
William Haggas won the race in 2014, 2017 & 2018
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016
Frankie Dettori has won the race twice since 2015

2.25 – Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV3

16/18 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Won between 1-3 times before
12/18 – Aged 3 years-old
11/18 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 7)
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The horse from stall 12 has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 11 runnings

3.00 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV3

18/19 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
16/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time
16/19  – Raced in the last 6 weeks
12/19 – Won by a March or April born foal
10/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Won over 7f before
9/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 7 winners)
3/19 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
2/19 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/19 – Won by the Hills yard
2/19 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/19 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
9 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)

3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV3

17/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
16/19 – Officially rated between 111-118
15/19 – Had won a Group race before
14/19 – Had won over 1m before
14/19 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Failed to win last time out
14/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (6 won)
12/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/19 – Won 4 or less times before
10/19 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 - Aged 4 years-old
5/19 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
4/19 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
4/19 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
3/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 8 runnings)
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/19 - Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 11)
2/19 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 6)
Mutasaabeq won this race in 2022
The last 8 winners were drawn in 6 or lower

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Sat TV Trends: 23rd Sept 2023

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It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

Did you know – 17 of the last 22 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.15 – Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

11/11 - Won at least twice before
11/11 - Rated between 88 and 96
10/11 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 - Won previously over 1m
9/11 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
9/11 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/11 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/11 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/11 - Placed favourites
6/11 - Irish bred
6/11 - Had run at Ayr before
4/11 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/11 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/11 - Winning favourites
Gweedore (12/1) won the race in 2022
Revich (20/1) won the race in 2021 and 3rd in 2022

1.50 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Yet to race at Ayr
11/12 – Won over 1m2f or more
11/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Rated between 101 and 111
9/12 – Won 3 or more times before
9/12 – Irish bred
9/12 – Aged 4 or older
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 10)
2/12 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 8)
Royal Champion (9/4) won the race in 2022

2.25 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

20/20 – Carried 8-11 or more
18/20 – Previous winners over 6f
17/20 – Aged 5 or younger
16/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/20 – Carried 9-0 or more
15/20 – Winning distance 1 length or less
15/20 – Had 5 or more runs that season
14/20 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/20 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
12/20 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/20 – Unplaced favourites
9/20 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/20 – Winning Favourites
0/20 – Filly or mare winners

3.00 – Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

 

18/20 – Had never raced at Ayr before
17/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/20 – Previous winners over 6f
16/20 – Had won one or two times before
14/20 – Winning distance 1 length or further
14/20 – Had 3 or more runs that season
14/20 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/20 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
12/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Ran at Doncaster last time out

3.35 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
19/22 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
17/22 – Had won over 6f before
17/22 – Failed to win their last race
15/22 – Carried 9-1 or more
15/22 – Came from a double-figure stall
14/22 – Rated 90-101
13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Had 7 or more runs that season
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/22 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
11/22 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/22 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/22 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/22– Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/22 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 10)
0/22 – Filly or mare winners
13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 18 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31


NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.30 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

20/21 – Raced four or more times that season
19/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
18/21 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
17/21 – Won a Listed or Group race before
17/21 – Won over 5f previously
16/21 - Aged 5 or younger
16/21 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
14/21 – Won 4 or more times
13/21 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/21 – Previous Group race winners
7/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 10 winners)
6/21 – Favourites
5/21 – Mare winners

2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 5 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Charlton has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Hector Crouch has a 24% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is just 1 from 41 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

2.40 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV4

12/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Won over 1m2f or further before
11/13 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
11/13 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Won 3 or 4 times
7/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Rated between 92 and 97 (inc)
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/13 – Had run at Newbury before

3.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

16/21 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
16/21 – Won from draw 5 or lower
16/21 – Won over 6f previously
15/21 – Raced 3 or more times
15/21 – Favourites placed
13/21 – Foaled in March or later
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/21 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/21 – Won exactly two races before
7/21 – Won by an April foal
7/21 – Won their previous race
5/21 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/21 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/21 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/21 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/21 – Filly winners

 

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2024 Ayr Gold Cup Trends

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Run over 6f, the Ayr Gold Cup is a handicap race open to horses aged 3 or older and staged at Ayr racecourse. The line-up is put together from the highest-rated horses entered, with the maximum number of runners currently standing at 24 – any horses that don’t make the race are offered the chance to run in the consolation races – the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups.

Did you know - since 1980 we’ve seen just 4 winning favourites?

Here at Geegeez we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2024 renewal.

Recent Ayr Gold Cup Winners

2023 - Significantly (8/1 jfav)
2022 - Summerghand (12/1)
2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
2020 - Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav)
2017 - Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
2016 – Brando (11/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)
2013 – Highland Colori (20/1)
2012 – Captain Ramius (16/1)
2011 – Our Jonathan (11/1)
2010 – Redford (14/1)
2009 – Jimmy Styles (14/1)
2008 – Regal Parade (18/1)
2007 – Advanced (20/1)
2006 – Fonthill Road (16/1)
2005 – Presto Shinko (12/1)
2004 – Funfair Wane (33/1)
2003 – Quito (20/1)
2002 – Funfair Wane (16/1)

Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends

23/23 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
20/23 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
20/23 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
18/23 – Had won over 6f before
18/23 – Failed to win their last race
16/23 – Carried 9-1 or more
16/23 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/23 – Rated 90-101
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/23 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/23 – Had 7 or more runs that season
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
12/23 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
12/23 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/23 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/23 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/23– Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/23 – Filly or mare winners
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 18 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31

Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

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Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 15th Sept 2023

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The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (14th-17th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

Friday 15th September 2023

1.50 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

13/13 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
11/13 – Foaled in March or later
11/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Won over 7f or 1m before
11/13 – Won just once before
9/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
6/13 – Drawn in stalls 2 (3) or 5 (3)
5/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/13 – Trained by John Gosden

2.25 – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

17/19 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
15/19 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
14/19 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
14/19 – Won 1-2 times before
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Ran at York last time
7/19 – Foaled in April
6/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
6/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
6/19 – Won last time out
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
1/19 – Winners from stall 1

3.00 – Betfred Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

20/22 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
20/22 – Had 2 or more runs that season
18/22 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
17/22 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
16/22 – Placed last time out
15/22 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
14/22 – Had won 5 or more times before
14/22 – Aged 6 or younger
13/22 – Previous Group race winners
13/22 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
13/22 – Ran at York last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
9/22 – Won last time out
8/22 – Unplaced favourites
4/22 – Trained in Ireland
Coltrane won the race in 2022

3.35 – Betfred Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

20/20 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
19/20 – Aged 5 or younger
19/20 – Had won at least twice before
16/20 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
16/20 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
15/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
11/20 – Winning distance 1 length or more
11/20 – Had 5 or more runs that season
8/20 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
8/20 – Ran at York last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
6/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/20 – Trained by Michael Bell
2/20 – Trained by James Fanshawe
2/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard

 

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