Monday Musings: Deception

There are funny camera angles for close finishes on a number of tracks, but until the past week or so, I’d never put Newmarket’s July Course into that category, writes Tony Stafford. Then, three times at least, as the horses flashed over the line, the apparent leader in the race to the line, was usurped by a horse or horses racing nearer the stands side.

It happened when the horse I was cheering for, William Knight’s Royal Velvet, had control of her two closest rivals in the final strides before the conclusion in a race the week before last. What happened next, the shot actually on the line, told a totally different story.

The same thing transpired on Friday when the £1.9 million yearling, Charlie Appleby debutant Distant Storm, appeared to have been outdone (on his outside) by Aidan O’Brien’s fellow newcomer Constitution River, but again the online camera left us in no doubt.

Then again on Saturday, in the Bunbury Cup, a 13-runner affair rather than the usual maximum 20, resolved in favour of William Haggas’ More Thunder, who also had a narrow margin to spare. We’ve often mused how often William Haggas goes into big-money handicaps with short-priced favourites. More Thunder was a 6/5 shot in a race where they often go maybe 6/1 the field.

That he should so narrowly get the better of the Ian Williams-trained Aalto, a 40/1 outsider, means no doubt the rise in his mark can be if not minimal, too little to prevent a follow up in another big money handicap.

Williams, also, is a terrific target trainer and he certainly had his eye on the money on offer this last week. His Oneforthegutter picked up Friday’s big prize, the bet365 Trophy over 1m6f, having judiciously employed stablemate Dancing In Paris, runner-up previously in the Northumberland Plate, to ensure a strong gallop.

William Knight isn’t slow to learn. Just a week after Royal Velvet’s near miss he brought out Suzy Hartley’s four-year-old filly again and this time William Buick kept the stands side route for her challenge, again looking less emphatic in the running than at the conclusion.

After being on the conventional side of the track on Friday, I switched to the marquee side – something of an oasis – on Saturday and the ‘on the eye’ view offered no confusion at all. Buick was well in control on Royal Velvet throughout the last half-furlong.

Talking about in control, Buick and his principal employer Charlie Appleby had a meeting to savour, with three apiece on each of the first two days and a concluding double on Saturday, meaning the jockey had three trebles.

The O’Brien / Appleby and Ryan Moore / Buick battles also came down in favour of the home team when Superlative Stakes favourite Italy was easily upstaged by Saba River, both colts coming on after comfortable debut wins.

It was always going to be Italy, in the race where we first saw the true potential of City of Troy two years ago, that would be favourite to justify his status; but Saba River got the stands run while his rival was pushed into the middle of the course. More surprising perhaps than the result was the 6/1 starting price of the winner, who was less than half that price in the morning.

The future progress of the two principals on those two juvenile events on successive days will be something to savour for the rest of the year.

It’s probably a little unkind to leave mention of the July Cup to this stage of the article, so apologies for Richard Hughes not to register the trainer’s first Group 1 win courtesy of the hard-working and obviously talented No Half Measures in the Pat Gallagher colours to confound his 66/1 starting price. The winner’s rating of 105 was 13lb below that of favourite – and last year’s 2,000 Guineas winer – Notable Speech, but he didn’t ever look like joining in the Godolphin win spree.

Ratings and handicap form are too often taken literally when assessing the top sprints, but with around 3lb to the length at 5f and 6f, any minor interruption to a horse’s progress can bring apparent no-hopers into the argument.

Given a peach of a ride by veteran Neil Callan, who said he was amazed how well he was going coming to the last furlong, No Half Measures had to pounce on Mick Appleby’s Big Mojo, a worthy successor to the stable’s Big Evs, and just outstayed his rival.

Pondering the race afterwards, Mick was anything but depressed. “I’m sure if it had been 5f or today’s trip over a less testing course, I’ve no doubt Big Mojo would have won. He’ll be very hard to beat in the Nunthorpe next month.”

As I said earlier, I watched the early races, though not the July Cup, from the other side of the track and counted in excess of 40 strides across the full width. Of course, with its busy summer programme, the track is divided in two but is still more than wide enough. For some reason though, in bigger fields they seem to cluster up and cause each other unnecessary difficulties as the action hots up.

Richard Hughes was a brilliant rider at the top level and while his training career until Saturday has had fewer top-end triumphs, it has been one of unfussed steady progression.

From his third season, in 2017, Hughesie has never fallen below 41 wins, and six times he has been between 50 and last year’s highest figure of 64. The big prize on Saturday pushed him comfortably over the £1 million prizemoney figure for the first time and it’s now four years in a row that he has set new personal scores in that regard.

It is very likely that at his present strike rate, the tally of 42 wins could reach 65 and bring another personal best for this man who, as the son of Dessie Hughes, the long term top Irish jump jockey and then trainer, he therefore was bred for the top.

It was fitting that Neil Callan, whose young son Jack has already ridden 16 winners, would be the vehicle to give Hughes his first Group 1 win. They also teamed up with Richard’s best previous win with Calling The Wild in the 2023 Northumberland Plate.

The three (so far) 2025 heatwaves have brought fitness difficulties for trainers at home in getting their horses onto grass gallops and facing fast ground at most tracks. Most years, trainers have been up in arms when rain has fallen on watered tracks causing wildly different conditions than were anticipated beforehand.

Among the moans about ground being too firm, there was always a strand of complaint, usually drowned out by the majority, saying that the fast ground horses that undoubtedly do exist, were being victimised.

At least this summer the fast-ground horses can enjoy a rare time when opportunities abound. Anyone with a garden – unless you have a hosepipe ban – will tell you that when you water your lawn, later the same afternoon it will have dried out again.

Similarly, if your horse is in the last race at a track where they have put some water on and you don’t want it too firm, hard luck. My already mentioned walk across the July Course posted as “watered, good to firm”, revealed a healthy cushion of grass. Some trainers I’ve been speaking to of late have been surprised to find that some of the horses they had marked down as needing soft ground, surprisingly have won races on firm. Don’t knock it till you’ve tried it, as they used to say.

- TS

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