Sat TV Trends: 27th June 2020

Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Newcastle and Newmarket. 

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - here at GeeGeez.co.uk we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)


2.05 – Betway Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 7f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 38% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is only 1 from 21 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds a the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 33 (3%) riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

2.40 – Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

16/18 – Won over 7f before
16/18 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
16/18 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/18 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/18 – Came from stall 3 or lower
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 9 runnings)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Limato won the race in 2019
Sir Dancealot won the race in 2018

 

3.15 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

13/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/13 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/13 – Had won over 1m or further before
10/13 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Draw 1,2 or 3
8/13 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/13 – US-bred winners
3/13 – Trained John Gosden
3/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/13 – Godolphin-owned winners
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

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Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.50 – Betfair Backs Racing Welfare
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 6f before
16/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Unplaced last time out
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
12/18 – Yet to win a Group race
11/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/18 – Aged 5 or older
8/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/18 – Had run at Newcastle before
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Won last time out
11 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

2.25 – Betfair Free Bet Streak Gosforth Park Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 5f

Just 4 past runnings
Trainers Richard Fahey, Tim Easterby, Paul Midgley and David Nicholls have won the race before
4/4 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/4 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 88 and 93 (inc)
3/4 – Placed favourites
3/4 – Won over 5f before
3/4 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
3/4 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
3/4 – Returned between 8/1 and 14/1 in the betting
2/4 – Won last time out
2/4 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 8/1
Copper Knight won this race in 2018

 

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

4/4 – Drawn stalls 5 or lower
4/4 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
3/4 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
3/4 – Yet to run at the track
3/4 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/4 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 95 and 100
2/4 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 4/1

 

3.35 – Betfair Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2018 -  Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 - 
Higher Power (11/2)
2016 –
Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 –
Quest For More (15/2)
2014 –
Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 –
Tominator (8/1)
2012 –
Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 –
Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

16/17  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
16/17 – Finished fifth or better last time out
15/17 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/17 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/17 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 11 winners)
3/17 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

 

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 7
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (Ire)

7.15 – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Colts and Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f

 

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2019 – SOVEREIGN (33/1)
2018 – LATROBE (14/1)
2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard
15/17 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/17 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won a Group race before
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
11/17 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
10/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 13 times in total)
7/17 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/17 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/2

 

 

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