Saturday TV Trends

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 19th Sept 2020

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day at the Scottish venue this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 8 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.55 – Jordan Electrics Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV


9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Yet to race at Ayr
8/9 – Won over 1m2f or more
8/9 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
8/9 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Aged 4 or older
7/9 – Won 3 or more times before
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/9 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

 

2.30 – QTS Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

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17/17 – Carried 8-11 or more
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Previous winners over 6f
14/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/17 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/17 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/17 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/17 – Winning Favourites
0/17 – Filly or mare winners
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018
Tatlisu won the race in 2015
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014

 

3.05 – Scotty Brand Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

15/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/17 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/17 – Previous winners over 6f
13/17 – Had won once or two times before
13/17 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/17 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
10/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/17 – Winning favourites

 

3.40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

19/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
14/19 – Had won over 6f before
14/19 – Failed to win their last race
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Rated 90-101
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or more
12/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/19 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/19 – Had raced at Ayr before
9/19 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
4/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Winning favourites (3 winning favs since 1980)
0/19 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 15 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.40 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

17/18 – Raced four or more times that season
16/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
15/18 – Won a Listed or Group race before
14/18 – Won over 5f previously
13/18 - Aged 5 or younger
13/18 – Won 4 or more times
12/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/18 – Previous Group race winners
6/18 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 7 winners)
6/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Favourites
5/18 – Mare winners
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Won 3 or 4 times
8/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/10 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/10 – Had run at Newbury before
4/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

18/18 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
17/18 – Priced 9/1 or less
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
13/18 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Raced at Newbury before
9/18 – Had won a Group race before
8/18 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Favourites that won
4/18 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 5 runnings)
3/18 – Raced at York last time
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

14/18 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/18 – Raced 3 or more times
15/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
13/18 – Won over 6f previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Foaled in March or later
10/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/18 – Favourites (or joint) to win
8/18 – Won exactly two races before
7/18 – Won by an April foal
5/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/18 – Filly winners

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