I'm back, with my annual kickball preview that is as deserving of being digital chip paper as anything penned on these virtual pages. I sort of know a bit about racing, though it may not radiate from every stanza scribbled or every suggestion sunk; my grasp of the football form book is more tenuous - that of a keen amateur at best. I'm keen enough, and also amateur enough...

If that hasn't had you clicking for the exit button then thank you for the blind optimism - we'll be in it together, at least - and let's get to business. Before this season, however, a rapid retrospectacle (copyright Thomas Dolby 1994) of last year's wager.

2024/25 Season Review

It was a promotion perm trixie as follows:

Championship: Leeds / Middlesbrough

League One: Bolton

League Two: Port Vale / MK Dons

Boro were the perfect 'data' team: xG through the roof, Hayden Hackney farming midfield metrics... and no end product. Having played like Vesuvius all season - dormant, with the promise of erupting at any moment - they finished by making a molehill out of that volcanic mountain. And that, friend, is possibly the worst metaphor you'll ever read.

Leeds fared better, beating Burnley to the divisional title by a goal difference short head, both clubs finishing as point centurions. They were the favourites, and plenty short enough at 11/10 for promotion, but they got it done.

Bolton did Bolton things in League 1: variously looking like promotion and relegation contenders, sometimes in the same match, before fizzling out tamely in the last quarter of the season.

League 2's double darter was MK Dons and Port Vale. The Dons were well fancied generally, as they seem often to be, but floundered miserably - so miserably in fact that at one point relegation out of the Football League was a genuine possibility. In the end they managed a secure but hopeless 19th. Good luck if you're following the money there again this season (cue facile victory, of course).

Happily, we also had Port Vale, a side reinvigorated and which only failed to win the league on the final afternoon, eventually finishing second in a ding-dong four-way go for much of the spring.

In the finish, then, we managed a double from our perm trixie, even money and 10/3 not covering the losses. 12 units were staked and 8.67 returned. Not disastrous, and a lot of fun had along the way, but let's face it, not great either.

You can relive last season's preview here, if you'd like to...

Enough with yesterday, what about tomorrow?

2025/26 Preview

I'm a week late and annoyed that a couple of major market movers have stolen a march - and the price - on teams I like, one in particular. To mitigate for skinnier prices, I'm taking a treacherous route involving two European League 'bankers'. Obviously, there's no such thing and it will be galling in the extreme to correctly predict the main business while flunking the bonus ball, so whether you want to follow along is entirely your call.

Caveats successfully applied to caveats, then, the first banker is Paris Saint-Germain to win Ligue 1. They are 1/8 and prevailed last season by 19 points. They also won the Champions League. It's hard to say that 1.125 decimal odds represent value but, realistically, the only issues I can see are financial penalties (none mooted, and they just got £100+ million from Club World Cup action - as well as Champions League winning wages) or the fact that they played a LOT of football last season and return off a very short layoff. But it should be remembered that the rest of Ligue 1 is potless, despite Marseilles almost certainly spending beyond their means, and there is a weird (and interesting, it might work!) situation where the TV rights have been brought in house by the league after the collapse of its previous commercial deal. PSG really ought to win, and represent 12.5% on top of the prevailing odds for our other teams.

More speculatively - I guess most things are more speculative than that unless you're of the bridge-jumping punting varietal - I offer 1/3 Bayern Munich. They actually lost the Bundesliga title two seasons ago (the curse of Harry, eh?) before resuming normal service with a 13 point romp last term - go Harry! I'm not crazy about their transfer business this summer - £70m for 28yo Luis Diaz looks punchy - but we don't care about resale value or longevity, only here and now performance. In that context, he's going to do well if he can stay off the injury list.

Of greater materiality, perhaps, is the weakening of one of their main rivals, Bayer Leverkusen. Lederhosen, sorry Leverkusen, bolted up in the Bundesliga two seasons ago and were closest to Munchen last term; but the losses of Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong to Liverpool and Jonathan Tah to Munich - and perhaps most crucially of manager Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid - are not fully mitigated by the arrival of Malik Tillman, plus Liverpool's Quansah and Brentford's cat, Flekken. It might not be as comfortable as PSG, but Vincent Kompany's prospects of a second successive Bundesliga title seem robust.

Feel free to include or exclude either or both of my 'casual bankers'.

Championship Promotion

There can be a danger in over-thinking the Championship promotion race. Given the untold riches of the Premier League, which extend to parachute payments for trapdoor-plummeting teams, the firm expectation is that the EPL's relegated sides typically stand the best chance of re-election to the top tier. Yes, there are failures; but for every Luton there's a Burnley. And, that, in a nutshell is the case for Ipswich at 11/10.

They have the best manager in the division in Kieran McKenna and have retained most of their Premier League side. Naturally, a couple have gone, notably Liam Delap to Chelsea and Omari Hutchinson linked to an array of Prem sides and missing a friendly at the weekend. But George Hirst looks primed for a big season in the main striker role and there is plenty of creativity via the likes of Jack Clarke and Leif Davis. McKenna has moved to add experience in the form of Ashley Young and David Button, as well as resilience with Azor Matusiwa (who I confess I know nothing about except that he's amassed almost 10,000 minutes in France's top division). Expect more incoming business to an already strong squad.

Sheffield United were comfortably the third best team in the Championship last year, their haul of 90 points fully 14 clear of play-off winners Sunderland. Losing in the play-offs is tough to take but this club's last five seasonal finishes were, oldest to most recent, 20th in Prem, 5th Champs, 2nd Champs, 20th Prem, 3rd Champs. They just always contend in this division. I feel they have to be a better proposition than that dreadful Southampton side which came down - and Saints have lost a number of their better performers. Of course, the window is open for a while longer and further incomings are expected - but that's true for all clubs. The Blades have added a couple from the Bulgarian League - no, me neither - and lost only one key player, Vini Souza, although they need to replace a number of loanees, some of whom were first team personnel last term. There are also some financial issues apparently, though the £13m they got from Wolfsburg for Souza should help. They're a top price 9/4 for promotion.

League 1 Promotion

This was bad last year and it might be again this time around, but I'm singling Stockport County. The price has just about halved from a week or so ago, not helped by an opening day home win over Bolton, but they were the wrong price and may still not be too skinny. County won the National League three seasons ago before finishing fourth and then first in League Two in the following two campaigns. Last term they had the misfortune to bump into Loadsamoney Birmingham and Hollywood Wrexham; nobody apart from those two relative goliaths finished ahead of them.

So that's form of 1413 coming into 2025/26. The squad has seen some upheaval - very common in the lower leagues - but it's mainly been on County's terms with few of their better players leaving. Meanwhile, they've acquired the services of winger Malik Mothersille, a debut scorer at the weekend. That was a good sign as they need to replace their 20 goal top scorer from last season, Tanto Olaofe, who moved on to L1 playoff winners Charlton.

This is a well-supported club with a settled core and proven form in the section. They're still around the 2/1 mark for promotion and that gets us something to cheer down to sixth place - though let's hope we don't need any playoff drama in their case.

National League Winner / Promotion

Even with the luxury of three automatic promotion spots, and playoffs down to 7th, I really don't love League 2. All the more so this season with my bogey, MK Dons, heading the lists. I can't be with them, and I can't really let them beat me either; so I'm swerving it for what looks a two horse race in the National League. Carlisle weren't terrible last season but they were bad enough to fall out of the pro leagues as the second-lowest points scorers in L2.

Amid a revolving door of transfers in and out, Regan Linney looks a strong addition after notching 25 goals last season, 23 of them in this division. Mark Hughes seemed to improve things when entering the dugout in February but he'll need to begin on the front foot this season, starting at Woking on Saturday. I'm siding with Carlisle for promotion at even money. They'll have the top five to get a playoff place, with only the divisional winner - as well as the playoff winner - going up.

At the same time, and this could end up frustrating, I'm backing York City to win the division. It's been a few years - ten - since they were in League Two, and much has happened in that decade including relegation to NL North and an FA Trophy Final win at Wembley. They were close to Barnet all season last time, eventually running up with 96 points. Third placed Forest Green were a further 13 points behind. They are another team to have shortened irritatingly in the past fortnight, but that's mainly because they have such a good chance in a section that is typically weakly contested at the top end. 7/4 is pretty tight but just about playable for a perceived three-horse race (York, Carlisle, the rest).

 

The Bet

If you're still with me, fair play. There is a lot of precariousness in the above, and the value lemon has already been at least half squeezed - hence the Euro banker gamble. In other words, this has even more of a 'fun bet vibe' than usual because we're two weeks too late to the party.

Candidly, I couldn't suggest value purists follow me in; but I do like some action through the footy season and I feel - I certainly hope - there are at least a couple of winners on these tickets. Caveats very much emptored.

My bet, spread across 365 and Hills as top prices on the Euro bankers (365) and Sheff U (Hills) respectively, are below. I've displayed one of the fivefolds with each bookie, rather than faff about with all twelve in detail.

[Click the image to enlarge it in a new window]

 

Twelve bets, so for 50p's it's £6, and hopefully a few of these teams take us through the season with some hope in our hearts and, erm, wagers.

Here's the breakdown of the bets:

A1 Ipswich
A2 Sheff Utd
B Stockport
C1 York
C2 Carlisle

365
A1-B-C1
A1-B-C2
A1-B
A1-C1
A1-C2
B-C1
B-C2

Hills
A2-B-C1
A2-B-C2
A2-B
A2-C1
A2-C2

 

Good luck!

Matt

 

p.s. if you play Fantasy Football, you can join the geegeez FFL league using this link. It's just for fun but there's always bragging rights to be had! 😉

The league code is z48hmw