Tag Archive for: ascot horse racing tips

Ascot Champions Day Trends | Saturday 19th Oct 2024

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It’s Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday – one of the big highlights towards the end of the flat turf season with four Group One races, including the Qipco Champion Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, to look forward to.

While trainer Aidan O’Brien is looking for his first winner at the meeting since 2019, when Magical won the Champion Stakes. Oh, and top jockey hasn't ridden a winner at Champions Day since 2018 - again Magical, but this time in the Champion Filly and Mares Stakes.

So as always - here at Geegeez - we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to help find the best profiles of past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

1.20 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

19/22 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
19/22 – Won at Listed or better class previously
18/22 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
17/22 – Won at least 5 times previously
16/22 – Favourites placed
15/22 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
15/22 – Aged 5 or older
15/22 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/22 – Raced at least 5 times that season
11/22 – Won their latest race
10/22 – Raced at Longchamp (4), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (4) last time out
10/22 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/22 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 13)
4/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/22 – Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 4)
3/22 – Ridden by Hollie Doyle (3 of the last 4)
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 9)
2/22 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2023 Winner: Trawlerman (9/1)
Trueshan won the race in 2020, 2021 and 2022
Since 2011: 6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

1.55 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

21/22 – Won at least 3 times previously
20/22 – Won over 6f previously
20/22 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
20/22 – Raced at least 4 times that season
19/22 – Won at Listed or better class previously
17/22 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
17/22 – Raced at Ascot previously (4 won)
17/22 – Won a Group race previously
16/22 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
14/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/22 – Raced at Haydock (8), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
13/22 – Favourites placed
5/22 – Won their latest race
5/22 – Favourites that won
2/22 - Trained by James Fanshawe (2 of the last 13)
Kinross won the race in 2022
2023 Winner: Art Power (40/1)
ALL winners since 1979 aged 6 or younger
Last back-to-back winner 1958/59 (Jack and Jill)
Since 2011: 4 of the last 13 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 7 of the last 12 winners came from single-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed in 5 of the last 13 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed in 5 of the last 13 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

2.35 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
15/16 – Won at Listed or better class previously
15/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/16 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
13/16 – Won at least 3 times previously
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Rated 110 or higher
11/16 – Aged 3 years-old
11/16 – Won over 1m4f previously
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/16 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
7/16 – Won their last race
5/16 – Favourites that won
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 8 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 7 runnings)
2/16 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2 of the last 10)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
2023 Winner: Poptronic (22/1)
The last 9 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 11
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

3.15 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

21/22 – Raced at least 3 times that season
20/22 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
20/22 – Finished in the top three in their last race
19/22 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
19/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
18/22 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
17/22 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/22 – Favourites placed
13/22 – Won their latest race
11/22 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/22 – Won at least 7 times previously
9/22 – Favourites that won
7/22 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/22 – Trained by John Gosden (4 in total)
2/22 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Since 1988 only 2 Filly winners (Persuasive 2017 & Minding, 2016)
2023 Winner: Big Rock (5/1)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
4 of the last 10 winners were French-trained
12 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 5 of the last 13 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.55 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

21/22 – Won at least 4 times previously
20/22 – Aged 5 or younger
19/22 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
19/22 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
18/22 – Won over 1m2f previously
17/22 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
17/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/22 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/22 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/22 – Won their last race
9/22 – Raced at either Longchamp (6) or Goodwood (3) last time out
8/22 – Favourites unplaced
8/22 – Returned a double-figure price
7/22 – Favourites
5/22 – Won by a French-based trainer
2/22 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 7)
Just 3 Irish-trained winners since 1974
2023 Winner: King Of Steel (3/1 fav)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

4.35 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 10 previous runnings
8/10 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/10 - Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/10 - Aged 5 years-old
3/10 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/10 - Winning favourite
Escobar won the race in 2019
2023 Winner: The Gatekeeper
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 18/1
Trainers Charlie Johnston, William Haggas, Jessie Harrington, Roger Varian, David O’Meara (3), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 5 of the last 10 runnings
The last 4 winners from stalls 11 (2) and 4 (2)
3 of the last 9 winners from stall 4 (including 2023 winner)

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2024 Sagaro Stakes Betting Trends

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Run at Ascot racecourse this Group 3 flat race is staged for horses aged 4 or older and run over a trip of 2m.

Here at Geegeez, we take a look back at recent winners and give you the key trends ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 1st May 2024

Recent Sagaro Stakes Winners

2023 - COLTRANE (11/4)
2022 - PRINCESS ZOE (17/2)
2021 - STRADIVARIUS (4/7 fav)
2020 – NAYEF ROAD (8/1)
2019 – DEE EX BEE (11/8 fav)
2018 – TORCEDOR (9/4 fav)
2017 – SWEET SELECTION (15/2)
2016 – MIZZOU (11/4)
2015 – MIZZOU (4/1)
2014 – TAC DE BOISTRON (7/2)
2013 – ESTIMATE (2/1 fav)
2012 – COLOUR VISION (9/2)
2011 – ASKAR TAU (4/1)
2010 – ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (16/1)
2009 – PATKAI (2/5 fav)
2008 – SHIPMASTER (4/1)
2007 – TUNGSTEN STRIKE (9/2)
2006 – COVER UP (4/1)
2005 – ALCAZAR (5/1)
2004 – RISK SEEKER (11/2)
2003 – ALCAZAR (7/2)

Sagaro Betting Trends and Stats

18/21 – Had won at least 3 times before
17/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Had won a Group race before
15/21 – Rated 108 or higher
14/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/21 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
14/21 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
8/21 – Winning distance – ½ or less
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
3/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 9)
The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2012 renewal was staged at Kempton, 2006 & 2005 at Lingfield, while the 2020 was run at Newcastle

Sat TV Trends: 23rd Jan 2021

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It’s off to Haydock, Ascot and Taunton this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action.

At Ascot, the Grade One Clarence House Chase (3.35) is their feature contest – a race the classy Defi Du Seuil landed 12 months ago.

Then at Haydock, the Peter Marsh Chase (2.40) is their showcase race – a prize that trainer Sue Smith has won five times in the last 17 years.

While, a big day at Taunton too with the ITV cameras heading there to show their Weatherbys Portman Cup (2.15) - a race the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki won 12 months ago.

So, like all big race days, we’ve got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
10/11 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
10/11 – From the top 4 in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
7/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/11 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/11 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Magic Light won the race in 2019 and 2020


1.50 – Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/13 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Favourites (1 co)
Thomas Darby (8/1) won the race in 2020
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

 

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Either French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/14 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/14 – Winning Favourites
Domaine De L’Isle (5/1) won the race in 2020

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

 

3.35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
11/17 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
10/17 – Favourites that won
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Winning Favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/14 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Stolen Silver (9/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

 

3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
13/15 -  From the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/15 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
11/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time out
8/15 – Aged 7 or younger
8/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
Ballyandy (5/2) won this race in 2020

 

Taunton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.10 – Weatherbys Portman Cup Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m4 1/2f ITV4

2 previous runnings
Yala Enki (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020
Trainers Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have won the race before
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 50% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Bryony Frost has a 27% record riding over fences at the track

 

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Clarence House Chase Trends

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Staged at Ascot racecourse the Clarence House Chase is a Grade One contest run over a distance of 2m1f.

The Clarence House Chase was first run back in 1989 when the popular Desert Orchid won the prize as a 10 year-old. The race is also a good guide to that season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase with Sprinter Sacre landing both races in 2013, Sire de Grugy in 2014, while Dodging Bullets did the same double in 2015. In more recent years, the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux has made the race his own by landing three of the last five renewals, while Altior landed the 2019 renewal.

The 2020 running though was won by the Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil.

Trainers Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls has also won the race five times each and– as mentioned – the Willie Mullins camp have taken three of the last five runnings.

Here at GEEGEEZ we are on hand with all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 23rd January.

Recent Clarence House Chase Winners

2020 - DEFI DU SEUIL (11/10 fav)
2019 – ALTIOR (1/10 fav)
2018 - UN DE SCEAUX (4/9 fav)
2017 – UN DE SCEAUX (1/2 fav)
2016 – UN DE SCEAUX (1/2 fav)
2015 – DODGING BULLETS (7/2)
2014 – SIRE DE GRUGY (5/4 fav)
2013 – SPRINTER SACRE (1/5 fav)
2012 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2011 – MASTER MINDED (4/7 fav)
2010 – TWIST MAGIC (11/8 fav)
2009 – MASTER MINDED (1/4 fav)
2008 – TAMARINBLEU (12/1)
2007 – No Race
2006 – TYSOU (10/1)
2005 – WELL CHIEF (5/1)
2004 – ISIO (4/1)
2003 – No Race

Clarence House Chase Past Trends

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
10/17 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets, 2019 Altior)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (29 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
Un De Sceaux has won the race in 2016, 2017 and 2018

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 10/3

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 21st Nov 2020

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More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock, while the main event at Ascot is the Chaenelle 1965 Chase – As always here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the trends and stats…..

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
13/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
11/17 – Ran at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
10/17 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
9/17 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
8/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
8/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Aged 5 years-old
3/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/17 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Politologue won the race in 2018
Top Notch won the race in 2017
Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

 2.40 - Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

18/18 – Priced 7/2 or less
16/18 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
15/18 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (3) bred horse
14/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
11/18 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
11/18 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
10/18 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
11/18 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
6/18 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/18 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
6/18 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/18 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 14 winners were Irish-trained
If The Cap Fits won the race in 2018 & 2019
Lil Rockerfeller won the race in 2017
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

 

3.17 – Coral Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

13/14 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
13/14 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/14 – Rated 142 or higher
8/14 – Ran at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
8/14 – Had raced at Ascot before
7/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Aged 6 years-old
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by Gary Moore
Capeland won the race in 2019
Caid du Lin won the race in 2018

 

3.50 – Coral Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race 1m7 1/2f ITV

10/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Had had a run before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his NH Flat runners at the track

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 Back And Lay On Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase Cl2 (4 yo+) 2m 5 1/2f RTV

9/9 – 0-2 wins over fences
8/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
8/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
7/9 – Rated between 144-148
6/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – 0-2 runs over fences before
4/9 – Won last time out
4/9- - Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/9 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Keeper Hill won the race 12 months ago

 

1.50 – Betfair Racing Only Bettor Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV

8/9 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won between 1-2 times before
7/9 – Irish bred
7/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
7/9 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
7/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Ridden by a conditional claiming jockey
3/9 – Winning favourites
Bold Plan won the race in 2019
Black Mischief won the race in 2018
Limited Reserve won the race in 2017

 

 

2.25 - Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV

14/15– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
13/15 – Carried 10-9 or more
12/15 – Rated between 132 and 143
10/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by David Pipe
2/15 – Trained by Nick Williams
Stoney Mountain won the race in 2019
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
Sam Spinner won the race in 2017

 

 

3.00 - Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV

15 Previous runnings
13/15 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
12/15 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/15 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (8) bred horse
12/15 - Placed in the top three in their last race
12/15 - Won a Grade One chase previously
11/15 - Raced at Haydock previously
10/15 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Aged 8 or older
8/15 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
7/15 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Won their latest race
4/15 - Raced at Aintree last time out
Lostintranslation won this in 2019
Bristol De Mai won this in 2017 and 2018
The average winning price in the last 15 runnings is 5/1
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017 and 2018 
The Colin Tizzard yard has won the race in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019

 

 

3.35 – My Odds Boost On Betair Stayers’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 3m 4 1/2f ITV

8/9 – Aged 8 or younger
8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Aged between 7-8 years-old
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/9 – Rated between 129-135
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Carried 11st 9lbs or more
6/9 – Won between 1-2 times fences
2/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/9 – Winning favourites

 

 

Sat TV Trends: 3rd Oct 2020

/in /by

Another big Saturday ahead with  seven LIVE ITV4 races at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket.

At Ascot, we've four LIVE races that incldue the Group Three Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2.30).

Did you know  - 16 of the last 18 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

Then at Newmarket, we've another three LIVE ITV races that are headlined with the Group One Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (2.45), while at Redcar their Two Year Old Trophy (3.25) is the main race.

As always, we are on-hand to look at each of the LIVE races from a trends angle.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1.55 – tote.co.uk Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

16/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
16/16 – Won over 5f before
15/16 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/16 – Rated 101 or higher
10/16 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/16 – Unplaced last time out
8/16 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
8/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
3/16 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Michael Dods (last two runnings)
Dakota Gold (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019
12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

 

2.30 – tote.co.uk Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

17/18 - Finished fourth or better last time out
16/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Won at Listed or Group class before
13/18 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
11/18 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
11/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/18 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Favourites to win
6/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
1/18 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Morando (2/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

 

3.05 – tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

17/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/18 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
15/18 – Won over 7f previously
13/18 – Had raced within the last 30 days
13/18 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/18 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/18 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
6/18 – Raced at Ayr last time out
5/18 – Favourites to win
2/18 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Won their previous race
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
The last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 12 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 12 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The last two winners came from stall 17
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
Kynren (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Raising Sand (5/1) won the race in 2018 and was third in 2017

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

3.40 - John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

12/12 – Won over 6f previously
12/12 – Officially rated 100 or higher
10/12 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/12 – Won 4 or more times previously
10/12 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/12 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/12 – Won their previous race
3/12 – Returned a double-figure price
4/12 – Favourites to win
2/12 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Cape Byron (13/8 fav) won the race in 2019
The last 2 winners came from stalls 6
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 6 of the last 9 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.40 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
5/5 – Foaled Feb or later
4/5 – Rated between 79-85
4/5 – Won from a double-figure draw
4/5 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
4/5 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
3/5 – Won just one before
3/5 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 8/1

 

2.10 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
4/4 – Favourites placed in the first three
3/4 – Didn’t win last time out
3/4 – Won just once before
2/4 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/4 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 9/2


2.45 - Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/16 – Previous Group winners
12/16 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Rated between 113 and 119
11/16 – Previous Group One winners
8/16 – Aged 3 years-old
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/16 – French-trained winners
5/16 – Raced at Deauville last time out
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 4)
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 13 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 10
Billesdon Brook (16/1) won the race in 2019 (Veracious 2nd)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1


Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

3.25 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

15/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
13/18 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
12/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/18 – Foaled in March or later
9/18 – Had won over 6f before
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
5/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Filly winners
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/18 – Trained by Stan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

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Sat TV Trends: 8th Aug 2020

/in , /by

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket to take in seven races across the three venues.

We’ve four competitive handicaps at Ascot, while at Haydock the Group Three Lancaster Stakes is their feature. Then we’ve also one LIVE race at Newmarket’s July course – the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

1:50 - ITV Home Of Terrestial Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

 

No previous runnings
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 3 from 85 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 0 from 17 (0%) with this 4+ year-olds at the track

 

2:25 - Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker is only 1 from 30 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is only 1 from 35 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David O’Meara is only 5 from 127 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3:00 - Thames Hospice Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe is 0 from 15 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3:35 - Virginia Water Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Trainer Roger Varian has a 15% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock is only 3 from 59 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is only 1 from 40 (3%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

2:05 - BetVictor British EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

 

9/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Rated between 94-100
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 5-8
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Returned between 10/1 and 14/1
5/9 – Ran at Ascot or Newmarket last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/9 – Winning favourites
Miss O’Connor (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

 

 

2:40 - BetVictor Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

 

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/17 – Yet to run at Haydock
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
13/17 – Won a Listed or better class race before
13/17 – Won over 1m2f or further
13/17 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
11/17 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
12/17 – Won 3 or more times during their career
11/17 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
10/17 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced in their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2019

 

 

Newmarket (July) Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ ITV4)

 

3:20 - Betway Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

 

16/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting market
15/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/17 – Won just once previously
12/17 – Had won over only 6f previously
10/17 – Favourites placed
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
9/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (3) last time out
8/17 – Yet to win over 7f
8/17 –  Favourites that won
7/17 – Had just one previous run
5/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
West End Girl (11/2) won the race in 2019
3 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
4 of the last 13 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

 

 

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