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Sat TV Trends: 18th Sept 2021

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

Did you know? 15 of the last 20 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

 

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Yet to race at Ayr
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or more
9/10 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/10 – Won 3 or more times before
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Aged 4 or older
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/10 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020

 

2.30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Carried 8-11 or more
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/18 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/18 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
11/18 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/18 – Winning Favourites
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
Magical Spirit (18/1) won the race in 2020
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV

16/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/18 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Had won once or two times before
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/18 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/18 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/18 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
4/18 – Winning favourites
Umm Kulthum (9/4 fav) won the race in 2020

 

3.40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
15/20 – Had won over 6f before
15/20 – Failed to win their last race
13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Rated 90-101
13/20 – Carried 9-1 or more
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/20 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/20 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (4) or Haydock (3) last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/20 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 8)
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 16 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

 

4.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV

9/9 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 - Won at least twice before
9/9 - Rated between 89 and 96
8/9 - Won previously over 1m
7/9 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
7/9 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/9 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/9 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 - Placed favourites
5/9 - Had run at Ayr before
3/9 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 - Winning favourites
Johan (9/2) won the race in 2020

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.15 -
Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV

18/19 – Raced four or more times that season
17/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
16/19 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
16/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/19 – Won a Listed or Group race before
15/19 – Won over 5f previously
14/19 - Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Won 4 or more times
12/19 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/19 – Previous Group race winners
6/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 8 winners)
6/19 – Won their last race
6/19 – Favourites
5/19 – Mare winners
Lazuli (5/2) won the race in 2020
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

 

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV

19/19 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
18/19 – Priced 9/1 or less
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/19 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/19 – Favourites placed
11/19 – Raced at Newbury before
10/19 – Had won a Group race before
8/19 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Favourites that won
4/19 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 6 runnings)
4/19 – Raced at York last time
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Elarqam (2/1) won the race in 2020
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Won over 1m2f or further before
10/11 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
9/11 – Won 3 or 4 times
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/11 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/11 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/11 – Had run at Newbury before
Ilaraab (15/2) won the race in 2020

 

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV

15/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
15/19 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/19 – Raced 3 or more times
14/19 – Won over 6f previously
14/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Foaled in March or later
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/19 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/19 – Won exactly two races before
7/19 – Won by an April foal
6/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/19 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/19 – Filly winners

 

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Sun TV Trends: 18th April 2021

The normal Saturday action has been switched to Sunday because of the funeral of Prince Philip - therefore, a busy day for the ITV cameras, but something for everyone as they head to Newbury’s first flat meeting of the season, while they are also up at Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card.

As always, here at GeeGeez.co.uk we've got all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)


2.10 –
Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
17/17 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/17 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/17 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/17 – Drawn 6 or higher
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
5/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

2.45 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

15/17 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn 5 or higher
12/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had won at Newbury before
5/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
4/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

3.20 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Having their first run of the season
14/17 – Won at Listed class or better before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Won between 2-4 times before
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Had won a Group race before
8/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Had won a race at Newbury before
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Irish-trained
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

3.55 – MansionBet Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

17/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
17/17 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
13/17 – Rated between 85-98
13/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Newbury before
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 6)
1/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 


AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Rated between 127-139
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/16 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – French bred
10/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
8/16 – Had run at Ayr before
4/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of the last 3 years)
2/16 – Won last time out
Theinval won this race in 2018
Duke Of Navan won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV 


9/9 – Aged 9 or younger
9/9 – No more than 3 chase wins
8/9 – French (3) or Irish (5) bred
7/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/9 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Had run at the track before
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

 

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

17/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Rated 137 or higher
10/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

 

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
16/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/17 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/17 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/17 – Raced at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2


3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

17/17 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
15/17 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
14/17 – French or Irish bred
13/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
12/17 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 3m1f or further
11/17 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
10/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/17 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/17 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/17 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 winners)
1/17 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 21/1