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Sat TV Trends: 3rd Dec 2016

Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the C4 cameras heading to Sandown Park and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests - As always we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.55 - Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
12/13 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won last time out
11/13 – French (8) or Irish (3) bred
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 winner)
9/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

 

2.25 - Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y CH4

12/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Raced within the last month
12/13 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Rated between 116-128
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

 

3.00 – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
12/14 – Had won a Grade One chase before
12/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
11/14 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/14 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – French bred
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8/14 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
5/14 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/14 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Sire de Grugy won the race in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

 

3.30 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Aged 7 or older
11/12 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
11/12 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
10/12 – Rated 126 or higher
10/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Unplaced favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/12 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/12 – Trained by Tom George
1/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

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Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.35 - Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

11/14 – Irish bred winners
11/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
11/14 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or older
11/14 – Officially rated between 123-138
10/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/14 – Had no more than 1 start that season
9/14 – Had raced at Aintree before
9/14 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
5/14 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/14 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
Highland Lodge won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993


2.10 - Betfred "Home Of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f CH4

10/12 - Carried 10-9 or more in weight
9/12 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 - Aged 6 or younger
9/12 – Rated 123 or higher
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/12 – Had won over at last 2m4f before
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before (3 had won there before)
7/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – French (4) or Irish (3) bred
6/12 - Winning favourites
2/12 - Trained by Peter Bowen
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton
Trainer Dan Skelton & Nicky Henderson have trained the last 4 winners between them
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1


2.40 - Betfred Lotto "£100K Cash Giveaway" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m210y CH4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
3/5 – Winning favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/2
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 34 (6%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes is only 3 from 38 riding over fences here


3.15 - Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/11 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
10/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 124 or more
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
8/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Had run at Aintree before (3 over the GN style fences)
more
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Won last time out
1/11 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
Bennys Mist won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Darebin - I have always thought a lot of this horse but very disappointing last time. First-time blinkers today and if he can put his last run behind him - was his first for over 6 months - should have a decent chance. E/W price."
Gary Moore

29/11/16 1st 12/1

"Kassis is still nicely handicapped and should go well today back over hurdles with the trip and conditions to suit we hope for a good run."
Jamie Snowden

27/11/16 1st 5/1

"Pensax Lady won well last time out and remains in good form at home coming out of the race well. This looks a bit more competitive than the race she won but we hope that she can go close again!"
Mark Loughnane

26/11/16 2nd 7/1

"Win Lose Draw, Down to lowest handicap mark and with Ali's claim then we look to have a fair chance. Decent draw in 2 and we put the cheekpieces on for the first time. We think they will help and has a fair amount of experience of this track. Not the best-looking race and we should be open to improvement with just 7 career runs. Each-way chance."
Mick Appleby

26/11/16 1st 9/2

 

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Becher Chase 2015 Preview, Trends, Tips

Becher Chase 2015 Preview, Trends, Tips

Aintree's Becher Chase is a real crowd pleaser, run as it is over the Grand National fences. It has been a reasonable portent to that mile and a quarter longer race in recent times, with both Silver Birch and Amberleigh House taking the Becher en route to National glory.

Becher Chase 2015 Trends

Becher Chase last time out trends: Considering that seven of the eighteen winners since 1997 were priced 14/1 or bigger, it might be a surprise that only one horse who completed on its previous start finished worse than fifth that day. Top fivers won twelve from 158 (7.6% strike rate). Of the eight to fall or be brought down in their previous race, just one made the frame, none winning; but of those pulling up or unseating last time, there were five winners and four further places from just 34 runners (14.7%).

Those completing last time but with five or more in front of them have gone a collective 1 for 73, with just nine placed efforts to their names (12.3%). That compares to 42 top five last time out placers (26.6%) and ten last day non-completers to make the frame (23.8%).

I'd be prepared to forgive a horse that didn't finish on its previous run, but would be far more apprehensive about one that simply ran down the field.

Becher Chase Age trends: This is a solid test of stamina, so while it is possible for a young horse to prevail (Silver Birch was seven when he won in 2004), the percentage call is for older lags. Specifically, since 1997, five to seven year olds are 1 from 40 (2.5%), seven places (17.5%).

Those aged eight to ten are 13 from 183 (7.1%), 43 places (23.5%); and older horses still are 4 from 52 (7.7%), eleven places (21.2%).

The message here appears to be that it is reckless to dismiss older horses, but young ones must be very good to compete on this battle ground.

Becher Chase Weight trends: As is often the case with handicap weight stats, care is required. On the face of it, with half of the last 18 winners carrying 10-07 or less, one would be forgiven for thinking that's where to hang one's hat. However, closer inspection reveals that those nine winners came at a cost of 132 runners (7%).

That compares favourably with middle-weighted horses - those between 10-08 and 11-03 - who won just four times from 92 runners (4%). The small group of 51 horses to shoulder 11-04 or more claimed five prizes between them at a clip of 10%.

Looking at the place strike rates, a similar story emerges, with the bottom third of the weights placing 25% of the time, the middle third hitting the frame just 15% of the time, and the top third yielding a 1-2-3 dividend 27% of the time.

Summary: Don't be afraid to back a highly weighted horse, all other things being equal.

Becher Chase Miscellany: Those with two or more wins over further than the 3m2f Becher trip have won six times from just 24 starters (25%) since 1997, and placed another three times (37.5%) for a healthy win and each way profit.

Becher Chase Trainer trends: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners and six more placers from 23 runners since 1997. Nigel Twiston-Davies also has three wins in that time, from 19 runners, and one further place; while the late Dessie Hughes legged up two winners and a place from just five runners. His daughter, Sandra, runs Irish National winner, Thunder And Roses.

On balance, it looks prudent to favour a mature horse with guaranteed stamina, and either a touch of class or a light weight. The likes of Goonyella and Portrait King look to fit the loose bill.

Becher Chase Form Preview

It's 8/1 the field, and might be close to 10/1 your pick on the morning of the race. Of course, by off time, the overround will be MUCH higher, so the message has to be take a price best odds guaranteed if you are still able to.

The Irish-trained pair of Goonyella and Thunder And Roses lead the market, and both have solid form credentials despite no Irish horse making the frame since One Cool Cookie (25/1) in 2010. The year before, Vic Venturi was the last Irish winner of the Becher for the aforementioned much missed Dessie Hughes.

Daughter Sandra is making a good fist of her fledgling training career, having already brought the (Fairy)house down when winning the Irish National on Easter Monday this year. That success, a big-priced winner flagged here, was achieved by Thunder And Roses, who was given an absolutely brilliant ride by Katie Walsh. Gigginstown retained jockey, Bryan Cooper, takes over and he's yet to be out of the first two in four starts with this son of Presenting.

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Thunder And Roses is a horse with some potential and looks a strong stayer but I just wonder whether this might be a sighter for April. If that's the case, it wouldn't do to horlicks the handicap mark in the rehearsal!

Goonyella has already cut his handicap cloth - he's rated 150 after taking the Midlands National in March and running second in the Scottish National a month later - so may as well try his damnedest to win this before pleading for leniency from the official handicapper Phil Smith's discretionary Grand National allocations. (Not that they won't all be trying their damnedest, you understand. Ahem).

There's little doubt as to what Goony's target will be this season and this second attempt at the Becher (unseated at the first last year) looks sure to be more fruitful than the first. How much more is the million dollar question. The answer looks to be considerably more: assuming he jumps round he will have no issue with the trip or the ground, and he had a lovely pipe opener over hurdles a month ago.

The first British-trained name in the betting lists is Algernon Pazham. Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose record in this race is impeccable, the data implies that asking a six year old to tackle this challenge is a big request. Whilst I imagine he probably has the stamina for the job, and some upside potential in terms of form profile, I'm not sure he's quite classy enough. At the prices, it's a no from me, as those upstanding bastions of the community on X Factor might say.

Something of an Aintree legend, Saint Are looks very likely to run a bold race. Winner of a Grade 1 hurdle at the Aintree Festival in 2011, he's since won a Listed handicap chase at the track, ran third in this race last year and then ran second in the National itself earlier this year. The niggle is the ground. Saint Are used to be suited by a sound surface but, as his stamina has stretched out, perhaps that is less of an issue now. If he gets through it, and if the handicapping penalties of those excellent runs haven't taken their toll, he must go close.

I can't have Unioniste, classy though he is on his day. Trip and ground are in his favour but he has to lug eight pounds more than any other horse and, in such a stamina test, I don't expect him to be able to do that. [Cue facile win!]

Pineau De Re won the Grand National as an eleven year old in 2014, and he ran a big race again this year off an eight pound higher rating. Second in a veterans' chase last time he can't be written off - very few can - but nor is he especially appetizing at 10/1.

Soll had rather lost his way since finishing seventh in the 2013 Grand National, but a change of stable saw him notch back-to-back wins earlier this year. Both were at around this trip, and Soll also finished ninth in this year's National. Although he should improve for his seasonal debut, especially with the Pipe yard going better now, he still looks a bit high in the weights to scalp a race of this nature.

This trip looks a minimum for Irish raider, Vics Canvas, who is another higher in the handicap than ideal. A nice completion here, beaten far enough, should knock a couple of pounds off his April return visit rating, for which connections will be performing a rain dance. Not this time, thank you.

The form of the Sue Smith team demands No Planning gets a second glance, the more so when one notes that La Smith has had four placed horses in the Becher Chase from eleven runners since 1997, including 2002 winner, Ardent Scout. No Planning has been in the frame in twelve of eighteen chase starts, winning five of them. This trip might just stretch his stamina but, with the yard in barnstorming form, he's a noteworthy contender.

Dolatulo represents another in-form team (Greatrex/Sheehan). The form of his Rowland Meyrick Chase win of Boxing Day last year gives him a squeak, and he's a year more mature now. But recent efforts ask punters to make a leap of faith and, again, there may be others better handicapped.

One such is Portrait King, who was still going with the leading group when coming to grief three out in this year's National. A stamina test - perhaps more of a stamina test than this, in truth - is what he relishes, on sodden turf. He's actually dropped eight pounds since then and, though one has to overlook a pulled up effort last time, his overall profile - and odds of 16/1 - is more appealing than many. Indeed, keep in mind that those who pulled up last time have won four times since 2006.

Another potentially well handicapped is Highland Lodge, who has plummeted down the weights. Rated as high as 143 two years ago, he gets in here off a mark of 125, mainly by dint of a series of 'gone at the game' efforts. But his most recent run was his best in two years, and he's since moved to Jimmy Moffatt's stable. If a change of scenery has brought about any deeper affection for his profession, he could go better than a 25/1 chance. If...

Finally, though I'd worry about him having the class for this, Financial Climate might be worth a small speculative at a big price. 33/1 is his general quote which perhaps doesn't quite take account of his stable's form, or his ability to handle conditions. Trainer Oliver Sherwood has saddled five winners from 17 runners in the last two weeks, and Tom Garner has ridden three of them, from just five mounts.

The eight year old may have needed his first run of the season when well enough beaten last time, and if he strips fitter for that he has a featherweight, albeit five pounds out of the handicap proper allowing for jockey claim.

Becher Chase Tips

It's a wide open renewal of the Becher, and finding a winner looks a devil of a job. In the circumstances, I think I want some jam on my bread. One that looks potentially well treated on National form is Portrait King and 16/1 offers a scintilla of value.

At the top end of the market, Goonyella ought to run his race though I'm not sure whether the big weight will anchor him late in the play. I'll take a small piece of him at the best prevailing morning odds, which are likely to be a shade bigger than the current 7/1.

No Planning is another I can't resist a morsel on win and place for an on fire yard.

1.5 pts staked in a race where interest trumps edge. If one of this trio wins, we will have been lucky as well as good, because there are very few in the field without a chance!

0.5 pt win Goonyella 7/1 general (or best morning price)

0.25 pt e/w Portrait King 16/1 general (or best morning price)

0.25 pt e/w No Planning 14/1 general (or best morning price)

And remember, take best early price in the 'village', best odds guaranteed if you can. The early prices will certainly offer more value than starting prices.

Sat TV Trends: 5th Dec 2015

Another huge Saturday of NH action with the C4 cameras at Sandown & Aintree this week - as always we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races –including the Tingle Creek, Becher and Grand Sefton Chases.

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.55 - Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

12/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won a UK chase race over at least 2m
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/12 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Won their last race
10/12 – French (7) or Irish (3) bred
9/12 – Favourites placed
9/12 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 won)
9/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/12 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

2.25 - Jumeirah December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4

11/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Raced within the last month
11/12 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/12 – Rated between 116-128
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 7/1

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Won a Grade One chase before
11/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
10/13 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/13 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/13 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
9/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/13 – French bred
9/13 – Won at least 4 times over fences before
8/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
8/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/13 – Won a chase race at Sandown before
5/13 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/13 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 5/2
Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

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3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

11/11 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
10/11 – Won (fences) over at least 3m before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 126 or higher
9/11 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Favourites unplaced
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/11 – Ran over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/11 – Won their their last race
3/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/11 – Trained by Tom George
1/11 –  Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.40 - Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

10/13 – Irish bred
10/13 – Had no more than 1 start that season
10/13 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or older
10/13 – Officially rated between 123-138
9/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/13 – Raced at Aintree before
8/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
8/13 – Raced over these Grand National-style fences before
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Raced in the previous season’s Grand National
5/13 – Favourites placed
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Irish-trained winners
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/13 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993

2.15 - Betfred "Racing´s Biggest Supporter" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 8 or younger
2/4 – Favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

2.45 - Betfred "Be Part of The Action" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f

9/11 - Carried 10-9 or more in weight
8/11 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 - Aged 6 or younger
8/11 – Rated 123 or higher
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Won over at last 2m4f before
6/11 – Raced at Aintree before (2 winners)
6/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – French (3) or Irish (3) bred
5/11 - Favourites
2/11 - Trained by Peter Bowen
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.20 - Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/10 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Rated 124 or more
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
7/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Run at Aintree before (2 over the GN style fences)
more
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or
2/10 – Favourites
1/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 18/1

 

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