Tag Archive for: Brighton

Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/09/24

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Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Newcastle, Redcar & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And I think we'll head South to Brighton where the going is expected to be good for our six races starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.20 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

(2) Realised was third last time out, albeit almost 14 weeks ago, but he was the only runner here to make the frame on their last outing. (3) Bear To Dream has two wins and a play from his last five starts, making him the ‘form’ horse, whilst (1) Lochaber and (5) Thunderous Love both won five starts ago with the rest of the field now winless in seven or more. Thunderous Love now drops in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Card Stats : Harry Eustace (2-Realised) runners have made the frame here at Brighton in 5 of 10 over the last year and 13 of 23 over five years.

This could be a falsely run affair with no pronounced front-runner in the race...

...which would then favour/allow the 'better' runners to run their own race, although Lochaber, Another Jack, Realised and Bear To Dream have all set the pace once in their last four starts.Thunderous Love might struggle to land a blow from the back of the pack or I might have been interested.

Pretty unimaginative stuff from me here, as my 1-2-3 would be Bear To Dream, Realised & Lochaber. I only want to take two from this race, so I'll omit Realised in pursuit of a better price on Lochaber!

Selection :  (1) Lochaber & (3) Bear To Dream

Leg 2 : 2.50 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f

I’m not going to beat about the bush here and I’d be very shocked if (2) Usuario Amigo didn’t bolt up here. He has made the frame twice at Class 4 and once at Class 3 (two starts ago) and he’d be my banker today.

Card Stats : Charlie Longsdon (3-Artemsia) runners have made the frame in 4 of 7 over the last fortnight and 7 of 14 over the past 30 days.

Selection :(2) Usuario Amigo

Leg 3 : 3.20 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f

Joint top-weight (1) Gallimimus is the sole LTO winner in the pack, but (5) Fighting Poet won his penultimate start and has made the frame in each of his last three. (2) Villalobos and (7) Clear Justice both finished 6th last time out, but have both won two of their last four, whilst bottom-weight (11) First Encounter has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three.

Card Stats : 11 of John Gallagher’s (1-Gallimimus) LTO winners have gone on to make the frame next time out. John O’ Shea (4-Letter of the Law) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

The place pace/draw heat map points to front runners literally leading the way here...

...which is much better news for the likes of Villalobos than it is for Fighting Poet...

...but the Poet is in good nick despite being a persistent back marker. Gallimimus has led in two of his last three, so I'm happy to take him too.

Selection : we'll take three here, (1) Gallimimus(2) Villalobos (5) Fighting Poet yet still be worried about (4) Letter Of The Law

Leg 4 : 3.50 Brighton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

(1) Saint Riquier comes here on a hat-trick, drops in class and is unpunished for 10-length stroll at Leicester a week ago. He was in the frame at Class 4 in early-August before those two Class 5 wins and it’s very difficult to see him not being in the first three home. Such is his apparent dominance here, there’s a chance that the other seven runners might all be double-digit odds, the interesting one of those might be the 8 yr old (6) Torbellino who was only caught very late on in a defeat here over course and distance last time out when collared by Fighting Poet. Fighting Poet runs in the 3.20 race, of course and that might indicate how Torbellino might run.

Card Stats : Sheena West (4-Gearing’s Point) has 7 placers from 9 runners turned back out within 7 days of their last run.

Saint Riquier will go off really short and is ideally placed on the pace/draw stats to win the race, never mind make the frame!

Selection (1) Saint Riquier

Leg 5 : 4.20 Brighton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m

The fast-finishing (1) Walefya was a runner-up beaten by a head over this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell last time out, just six days after winning here over course and distance, whilst (2) Romanovich has two wins and a place from his last four starting with a course and distance win here in early August and a win at Chepstow three weeks ago. Of the others, (3) Interestnpenalities is coming a bit of a nearly horse, having been a runner-up now in each of his last three starts, but did win over 7f at Wolverhampton on St George’s Day. (4) Sorontar & (5) Heers Sadie both finished third recently, but both look to have plenty to find against the other three above.

Card Stats : (1) Waleyfa’s yard have had 14 placers from their 28 runners over the last 30 days, John O’ Shea (2-Romanovich) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

I see a Waleyfa/Romanovich 1-2 here based on form/stats and they're going to head the market, which isn't good for pot building, but I can't see any of the others getting to them. Of those others, the unexposed (4) Sorontar might be the one to build upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out, but third might be as good as he gets here, which isn't helpful in a 7-runner field.

Selection (1) Waleyfa (2) Romanovich

Leg 6 : 4.50 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

(1) Otago won last time out, as did (10) Forgotten Treasure, who has two wins and place from his last five outings, but the runner bringing the best set of results to the table is hat-trick seeking (6) Split Elevens, whose last six results read 211311. Elsewhere former course and distance winners (3) Poetic Force and (4) Electric Avenue both drop in class. The former narrowly missed out on making the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst the latter is now only 1lb higher than that C&D win from mid-June.

Card Stats : William Knight (10-Forgotten Treasure) has four placers from five Brighton runners over the last year (three wins) and his LTO winners have made the frame in 28 of 45 races next time out, winning 14 (31.1%) of them.

Forgotten Treasure is also the pick of the pack from the win pace/draw heat map here...

...although those drawn highest are well suited too, whilst Instant Expert points us towards Otago, the out of form Amathus, Electric Avenue, Split Elevens and Forgotten Treasure...

 

I think I'm going to go fairly deep here in a bid to consolidate what we have, if we're still in the running.

Selection (1) Otago (3) Poetic Force (4) Electric Avenue (6) Spilt Elevens (10) Forgotten Treasure

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1, 2 & 5

Leg 4:horse 1

Leg 5: horses 1 & 5

Leg 6: horses 1, 3, 4, 6 & 10

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Chief can rule over Newcastle rivals

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It would be no surprise if Chiefman masters his rivals to become top dog in Newcastle’s AGMA EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes.

Archie Watson’s Cracksman colt was well held on his first start at Wolverhampton but it is his next outing at Ffos Las that provides plenty of encouragement ahead of his trip to Gosforth Park.

On that occasion he gave away lengths at the start when second to Ollie Sangster’s highly-promising youngster Per Contra. and although he had no answer to the Wathnan Racing-owned colt when it mattered, he gave a solid account and could have lots more improvement to come.

This looks a winnable assignment and Chiefman is fancied to make it third-time-lucky in the north east.

Latin Five’s consistency makes him a solid proposition in the Wl Distillery Handicap.

He has only been running off basement ratings for Pail Midgley, but he has not been out of the first four in his last six outings.

That counts for a lot at this level and it is hard to see him being out of the frame.

Down at Brighton Jack Channon’s Miguel can make it third time lucky in the  At The Races App Form Study EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes.

The Phoenix Of Spain colt finished second on his debut at Chepstow and returned to the Monmouthshire venue to finish third, beaten just a length, on his most recent outing.

Obviously, the ability of the newcomers is an unknown but he sets a fair standard.

Oisin Murphy has been booked for Ed Dunlop’s Lucidity in an attempt to go one better than last time out in the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 “Confined” Handicap.

Over the obstacles at Newton Abbot, Syd Hosie’s Way Out can continue his winning streak in the Britbet “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle.

The six-year-old was deemed good enough to run in a Grade Two at Cheltenham earlier this year when beaten a long way by stablemate Rock My Way, but has somewhat found his real level of late, claiming a Fakenham maiden hurdle by an emphatic 15 lengths before following up in handicap company at Warwick.

He has to concede weight all-round here, but is heading in the right direction, and can continue his handler’s profitable summer.

Similar sentiments also apply to Investment Manager, who has racked up back-to-back course victories this summer and now bids for a hat-rick in the Ben Oliver Memorial Novices’ Handicap Chase.

Joe Tizzard’s seven-year-old is up to a career-high rating but is hard to oppose while in this sort of form at a venue he knows like the back of his hand.

Also looking to continue on a winning thread is Emmet Mullins’ Slate Lane who has made successful raids to Cartmel and Bangor in recent months.

Unbeaten since joining Mullins, the five-year-old now attempts to bring up the three-timer in the Talk Tidy Marketing Handicap Hurdle.

Irish raiders could also enjoy a successful afternoon north of the border at Perth and Gordon Elliot’s Doctor Nightingale looks the class angle in the opening Bet In Running On Racing At BetVictor Juvenile Hurdle.

SELECTIONS:

BRIGHTON: 2.20 Uncle Dick, 2.55 Miguel, 3.30 Line Of Fire, 4.05 Dee’s Dream, 4.40 Lucidity, 5.15 Imperiousity, 5.45 Moondial.

GALWAY: 3.20 Alvaniy, 3.55 The Vegas Raider, 4.30 Seddon, 5.05 Father Jed,  5.40 Sittingonthefence, 6.15 Calico, 6.45 Iridescent, 7.15 Just For Love.

NEWCASTLE: 4.55 Krona, 5.30 Irv, 6.00 CHIEFMAN (NAP), 6.30 Desert Raider, 7.00 Dream Final, 7.30 Blackcurrent, 8.00 Lupset Flossy Pop, 8.30 Latin Five.

NEWTON ABBBOT: 2.40 Sharp Note, 3.15 Way Out, 3.50 Investment Manager, 4.25 Slate Lane, 5.00 Saddlers Quest, 5.35 Johnnie River.

PERTH: 2.30 Doctor Nightingale, 3.05 A Different Kind, 3.40 Beauty To Behold, 4.15 Inca Prince, 4.47 Themanintheboots 5.22 Headscarf Lil.

DOUBLE: Chiefman and Way Out.



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Majestic chance of Musselburgh winner

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Majestic Beauty is expected to maintain her unbeaten record in the British EBF Ruby Anniversary Novice Stakes at Musselburgh.

Trainer Alice Haynes is in double figures in terms of juvenile winners this season and this daughter of Havana Grey certainly looked the part on her racecourse debut at Catterick in May.

Majestic Beauty was short odds to make a successful start to her career at the North Yorkshire track and soon recovered from a tardy start to win comfortably by two and a half lengths.

Hindsight tells us that form is not too shabby by Catterick standards, with the runner-up Specific Times since landing a nursery at York and third-placed Harvana now a dual winner.

Assuming Haynes has her filly fit enough to do herself justice after nearly three months off the track, she should prove very hard to beat.

Idilico can open his account for the season in the Stobo Castle Ladies Day Gold Cup Handicap.

Dianne Sayer’s eight-year-old is a regular visitor to Musselburgh and has been placed twice already this term.

He was disappointing over hurdles at Perth on his most recent outing, but a return to Flat on a track that suits may yield a return to form. The booking of Joe Fanning suggests connections mean business.

Not many trainers have their horses in better form than John Quinn and Poet’s Magic is taken to continue the trainer’s hot streak in the Gaynor Winyard Trophy Handicap.

The seven-year-old is only a pound above her last winning mark and is tipped to put a below-par first run of the season behind her.

Nibras Angel is out to double her tally in the Robert (Bob) Vickery Memorial Novice Stakes at Thirsk.

Trainer Ismail Mohammed is no stranger to handling high-class fillies, having saddled Zain Claudette to win both the Princess Margaret and the Lowther Stakes a couple of years ago.

Nibras Angel, who carries the same colours as her stablemate, made a big impression when scorching clear on her Lingfield introduction last month and the subsequent success of the third Time’s Eye gives the form a solid enough look.

Mohammed’s filly holds a Group One entry in the Sun Chariot later in the year and while that may be pie in the sky at this stage, she can keep the dream alive with a second victory.

May Blossom can complete her hat-trick for David O’Meara in the Best Odds Guaranteed At Vickers.Bet Handicap following back-to-back wins in July, while the lightly-raced Crow’s Nest looks a good bet in the Star Sports Festival Of Racing Handicap at Brighton.

The latter looked a winner in waiting when third on his debut at Windsor in May and he duly dotted up at Hamilton next time before successfully defying a penalty at Bath.

Softer ground over six furlongs appeared to blunt his speed at Newmarket on his handicap debut, but he still ran with plenty of credit to finish third and with further improvement anticipated, he looks feasibly treated on his return to a sounder surface.

Haydock punters should side with Karl Burke’s Mannerism in the oakflooringman.com EBF Novice Stakes.

The Caravaggio gelding was beaten just a length when third on his introduction on Merseyside three weeks ago and while the winner Paladin did not cover himself in glory at Goodwood last week, Mannerism’s stablemate Ice Max, who finished fourth, outclassed his rivals at Catterick on Tuesday.

With Tom Marquand in the saddle, Mannerism can add to Burke’s considerable juvenile haul.

SELECTIONS:

BRIGHTON: 2.30 Notre Maison, 3.00 Sparklight, 3.30 Miller Spirit, 4.00 Crow’s Nest, 4.35 Lilkian, 5.05 Harry The Haggler.

HAYDOCK: 5.40 Lenny’s Spirit, 6.15 Mannerism, 6.50 Couplet, 7.25 Alshinfarah, 8.00 Sovereign Queen, 8.35 Unequal Love.

MUSSELBURGH: 2.20 Freak Out, 2.50 MAJESTIC BEAUTY (NAP), 3.20 Idilico, 3.50 Poet’s Magic, 4.20 End Zone, 4.53 War Defender.

NEWMARKET: 4.49 Habrdi, 5.25 Us Navy Jack, 6.00 Broadway Act, 6.35 Jayyash, 7.10 Kingori, 7.45 Astral Spirit, 8.20 Champagne Sarah.

THIRSK: 2.10 Chester Le Streak, 2.40 Bint Havana Grey, 3.10 On Borrowed Time, 3.40 Nibras Angel, 4.10 May Blossom, 4.40 Moulin Booj, 5.10 Prince Achille.

TIPPERARY: 4.45 Double Jabbed, 5.15 Harmony Rose, 5.50 Tamazu, 6.25 Andromeda, 7.00 Bremen, 7.35 First Gentleman, 8.10 Chatterbox.

WEXFORD: 4.55 Dutch Schultz, 5.30 Star Official, 6.05 Jesina, 6.40 Midnight Our Fred, 7.15 Gali Flight, 7.50 Look Dont Touch, 8.25 Meet My Loreley.

DOUBLE: Majestic Beauty and Nibras Angel.



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‘Systems and administrative error’ sees four runners taken out of Brighton race

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There was drama at Brighton on Friday when only two of the six declared runners in the sixth race on the card were permitted to take part.

The race conditions for the one-mile Follow @attheraces On Twitter Handicap stated it was for horses “for four yrs old and upwards, rated 46-65 which have not won more than two races”.

However, Kondratiev Wave, Rivas Rob Roy, Spirit Warning, Vitesse Du Son had all won more than two and were scratched less than an hour before the race was due off at 4.30pm, following what the British Horseracing Authority said in a statement was a “systems and administrative error”.

Shaun Parker, the BHA’s head of stewarding, told Sky Sports Racing: “Once the meeting started concerns were raised that in the sixth race certain runners were not eligible to run due to the conditions of the race.

“We then held discussions with representatives from Weatherbys, the BHA racing department as well as ARC (Arena Racing Company, owners of Brighton) and followed up with an inquiry with the trainers.

“When we ascertained having gone through all the documents that these horses weren’t eligible to race, we only have one option but to take them out at that stage.

“In terms of the conditions, there were two that qualified correctly so it was only fair to them to take the others out.

“I think what has happened, looking at the discussions we’ve had with representatives from Weatherbys, there has obviously been a glitch somewhere along the line, it is not the way we like to see a race taken apart but I’m sure there will be investigations under way and we will forward our findings to the BHA.

“We looked at everything to see if there was something we could do, but unfortunately there was not. It’s very strange and Weatherbys say it’s the first time they can recall something like this happening.”

Trainer Tony Carroll was among those affected
Trainer Tony Carroll was among those affected (David Davies/PA)

Tony Carroll, trainer of Kondratiev Wave, said: “Everybody is very disappointed as it seems to have slipped through the system without anybody noticing.

“I’d have to go back and see what was printed in the Racing Calendar, but mine and a couple of the others could have run in other races. They generally come up as not qualified so I don’t know how it has slipped through but it has so there’s four or five very unhappy people.

“I’m sure we’ll be compensated but there’s a bit of sadness about the whole thing, I’ve not seen it before. There’s four of us that have not got it right, which is unusual.”

In a statement Brighton racecourse said: “Following the stewards’ inquiry regarding the declarations for race six this afternoon, Brighton Racecourse will make a goodwill payment to the owner and jockey of each of the four horses affected.

“They entered the race in good faith, and will have expected to run. As such, we can only apologise for the inconvenience that they have experienced.

“We will, of course, be in touch with colleagues at the BHA and Weatherbys to get to the bottom of the issue.”

In the race itself 3-1 chance Roscioli beat the 1-4 favourite Girl Inthe Picture.



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