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Well I Declare: 21st September

Well I Declare: 21st September

Well I Declare: 21st September

There's plenty of racing to keep us occupied today and here's a quick recap on the action planned for Ayr, Brighton, Lingfield, Newbury and Wolverhampton, as Mal Boyle previews...

...FRIDAY 21/09:

AYR:

General stats: Frankie Dettori (4/10) and Jim Crowley (3/5) are rare visitors to this part of the world and the two pilots have secured the thick end of an aggregate of fifty points of level stake profits.

 

BRIGHTON:

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled five horses at Brighton in total: 2YO stats: 1/2--3YO stats: 2/3.

 

LINGFIELD:

General stats: Rae Guest has enjoyed a purple patch of late and his Lingfield strike rate of 5/23 is backed up by an LSP figure of thirty-four points.

 

NEWBURY:

General stats: Ron Hodges (6/16), Ed McMahon (5/16) and Paul D’Arcy (4/15) are (respectfully)  ‘lesser’ trainers to consider, especially given their aggregate LSP figure of sixty points.

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Fourteen of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs)

7-11-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-7-10 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-3-2 (12 ran-good)

1-7-9 (12 ran-good)

9-12-3 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-13-5 (10 ran-good)

9-10-1 (11 ran-good)

6-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-10-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

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10-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-6-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-5-11 (10 ran-good)

16-1-3 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

20-8-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-17-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

10-15-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural winner scored at 3/1 back in 2007.  Three-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

Nine furlong conditions event scheduled for 3.05: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium, whilst eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Juvenile Class 2 conditions event scheduled for 3.40: Marcus Tregoning does not saddle a great number of juvenile winners in a season as a general rule, whereby it is significant that the trainer attempts to win this race for the fourth time in the last ten years via two newcomers which were still in evidence at the five-day stage.  Four favourites have won of late (last year‘s 4/7 market leader was beaten however), whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs)

3-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5 (6 ran -good to firm)

1-7 (6 ran-good)

1-10-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6 (7 ran-good)

2-8-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good)

Seven furlong conditions event due to be contested at 4.15: Eleven different trainers have won this event during in as any years, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (five winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-4 (8 ran--good)

6-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-11-3 (11 ran-good)

5-9-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

6-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

5 (4 ran--good)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5 (7 ran-good)

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed event) schedule for 4.50: Five renewals have slipped by since the last successful favourite was recorded.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured three of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding five options for the race at the time of writing.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the last nine renewals.  Only two favourites have obliged during the last decade, with six gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Ted Durcan has had an up and down season, having ridden the runner-up in the Epsom Derby, whilst still struggling for rides for former top employers.  Ted’s record at Wolverhampton includes a strike rate of 23%, which is backed up by twelve points of level stake profits.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2012

Stat of the Day 7/9

Stat of the Day 7/9

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2012

It was another case of near yet so far again yesterday. I highlighted the two Alan Jarvis runners as potential E/W gambles: Martinas Delight a 10/1 BOG chance) finished 4th at 12/1, just a neck outside the places and staying on at the end, whilst the SotD selection Diaminda suffered a similar fate. Our advised 8/1 shot eased out by half a point on the off and finished her race very strongly. Unfortunately for her, she had left it a little late and she also finished 4th, a head away from a place and less than two lengths off the winner. Had our horses got going a little sooner over the past few days, we'd be sitting on some decent profits.

Unfortunately ifs and buts don't boost the bank, so we go again today with an old friend of SotD, who takes us to the South Coast for a tea-time Class 5 Fillies Handicap. The ground is expected to be good to firm for the twelve runners tackling 6 furlongs in the...

5.25 Brighton

Last Sunday (2/9/12) our SotD selection was the Joseph Tuite-trained Efistorm, based purely on the horse's own record at Folkestone. Efistorm ran poorly that day and seemed to need the run. He runs again here today in the 4.20 and whilst he might have an outside squeak of a place at 16/1 or bigger, it's his travelling partner we're more interested in today.

Trainer Joseph Tuite has a very good record here at Brighton with 6 winners from 21 (28.6%) returning profits of 13.5pts (64.3% on stakes), with a further 5 place finishes. Today's selection Interakt is a 5yr old horse with a decent record at the track himself, which I'll come to in a moment. I just want to define Mr Tuite's stats a little further by looking at his Brighton record with horses aged 4 and over, because they're even more impressive than his overall figures. 5 wins and 5 places from 16 is very good indeed and the five winners have produced a level stakes profit at SP of 16pts, so you're doubling your money at SP and who backs at SP nowadays?

Now, let's take a closer look at our selection Interakt: he won twice over Course & Distance last season and has already opened her account for this season with a win at Yarmouth back in May. She has since struggled after stepping up to Class 4 racing, but dropped back to this grade last time out, where she found the 5 furlongs here a little too sharp for her liking. She's back up to 6 furlongs today which will suit her more on a track she loves. She has scored 3 wins and 6 places from 11 Brighton outings and her record here since moving to Joseph Tuite reads 2031122.

The trainer and the horse are both proven here and the filly clearly gets the trip. With all this in mind, I actually think that the 5/1 BOG currently on offer from BetVictor represents decent value, so it's 1pt win at 5/1 BOG, but you should always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.25 Brighton.

Well I Declare: 7th September

Well I Declare: 7th September

Well I Declare: 7th September

Good morning everyone, I'm just bringing you a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on today's racing from Brighton, Chepstow, Haydock and Kempton. Good luck for all your bets today!

FRIDAY 07/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Well publicised trainers have superior figures to offer than Joseph Tuite, though Joseph’s 6/21 return in recent years is worth a mention, especially as over thirteen points of level stake profits have been realised during the period. 

 

Chepstow:

General stats: Two of the last seven runners saddled by John Spearing had won at the time of writing and John’s 29% record at Chepstow catches the eye.  The positive statistics include nearly ten points of level stake profits during the period.

 

Haydock:

General stats: Richard Kingscote’s mounts have realised seventy points of level stake profits at Haydock in the last five years via a strike rate 26% (twenty one winners). 

2.30: Both favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date via gold and bronze medals.

3.35: Both favourites finished out of the money in the two divisions of last year’s inaugural event.

The inaugural 4.45 & 5.15 races last year were won by John Gosden trained 7/2 favourites.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ralph Beckett (sixty six) and James Fanshawe (forty four) have both produced an abundance of level stake profits in recent years, albeit all trainers are generally overshadowed by the exploits of Saeed Bin Suroor (56 winners via a 34% ratio) at the Sunbury circuit.

Well I Declare, 10th August

Well, I Declare! 10th August

Well, I Declare! 10th August

Hi everyone, just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's hints, tips and stats for today's action from Brighton, Haydock, Musselburgh, Newmarket and Lingfield:

 

FRIDAY 10/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Andrew Haynes saddled an 8/1 double on the card twelve months ago via 7/2 and even money winners.

 

Haydock:

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General stats: It is hardly surprising that Natasha Eaton (4/9) and Daniel Byrne (2/5) already have booked rides at Haydock given their success at the track thus far.

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Roninski (scheduled to contest the 4.00 event) is Bryan Smart’s only potential runner on the Musselburgh card, with the trainer boasting a 24% strike rate in Edinburgh, backed up by forty-six points of level stake profits.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Given that Richard Hannon has saddled 341 runners on the July course during the last five years, it is surprising in the extreme that his fifty winners have produced a level stake profit of forty-three points during the period.

Nursery event scheduled for 5.40: Seven of the ten winners of this two-year-old event during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13.  Six favourites have won this contest (including four of the last eight) during the study period, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong juvenile seller scheduled for 6.10:  The last eleven winners of this juvenile event have been returned at odds of 7/1 or less, albeit just one successful favourite was recorded during the study period.  Two favourites have won in the last fourteen years, whilst six of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Juvenile maiden event over seven furlongs due to be contested at 6.45: I’m not certain of my facts, though I cannot recall any other meeting during the course of the year when three seven furlong events open a meeting, especially when the three events are all of the juvenile variety.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last fifteen years.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position during the study period.  Mahmood Al Zarooni held five entries earlier in the week coming into the gig on a hat trick.

Class 3 all aged ten furlong handicap event scheduled for 7.15: Seven of the last eight winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst five favourites have won via eleven renewals during the last thirteen years.  Eight of the twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Market leaders come to the party on a hat trick this time around.

Ten furlongs conditions event scheduled for 7.50: Saeed Bin Suroor has secured two gold and one silver medal to date via four renewals.  Potential stable representative Invisible Hunter was one of only six runners declared for the contest at the five-day stage. All four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners).

Class 3 six furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 8.20: Eleven of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more. One clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last fifteen years, whilst six of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process. The last eleven winners have scored at 16/1-14/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-6/1-6/1-6/1-2/1, without a successful market leader being recorded.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe has had secured six gold, seven silver and three bronze medals via his last twenty-three runners at the time of writing.  The fact that Tom boasts an LSP figure of fifty-nine points via a 26% strike rate at Lingfield of late suggests you need to keep his runners in mind with the stable enjoying an (each way) purple patch at present.

Well I Declare, 9th August

Well I Declare: 9th August

Well I Declare: 9th August

Racing action comes from Brighton, Chepstow, Haydock, Yarmouth & Southwell today and Mal Boyle's got the inside track on it all for us in his popular "Well, I Declare" feature.

THURSDAY 09/08:

Brighton:

General stats: Brighton’s Thursday card produced three successful favourites twelve months ago and the good news for punters, was that the three gold medallists wrapped up the afternoon.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: In form trainers such as Mark Johnston (28%) and Andrew Balding (26%) tend to fare well at Chepstow, whilst results for favourite backers are nothing to write home about as a general rule of thumb.

 

Haydock:

General stats:  Five favourites prevailed via twenty races at this three-day meeting twelve months ago.  John Gosden saddled two winners during the course of the three days, his gold medallists having been sent off at 8/1 and 5/1.

One mile three-year-old handicap scheduled for 3.10: Eight horses have carried 9-7 in the last seven years, snaring three gold medals alongside two silvers (one at 14/1) in the process.  Three of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).  Five renewals have slipped by the since the last market leader prevailed.

Class 4 all aged six furlong handicap due to be contested at 3.40: Horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more have won the last five renewals, whilst five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).

'Draw factor' (six furlongs--most recent renewal listed first):

10-11-8 (10 ran-good)

16-2-17-11 (16 ran-good to soft)

6-8-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-2-13-3 (16 ran-heavy)

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13-3-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-13-11 (9 ran-good)

7-12-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

4-8 (6 ran-heavy)

9-6-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

 

Class 5 three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 4.10: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less.  Six of the nine favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though two market leaders have won to ensure that level stake investors are ‘only’ £312.50 behind to level one hundred pound stakes to date.

Ten furlong class 5 handicap scheduled for 4.40: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have secured fifteen of the last twenty-two available toteplacepot positions, stats which included the last seven winners.  Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven of the fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs--most recent renewal listed first):

9-10-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-8-2 (10 ran soft)

14-13-2-9 (17 ran-good to soft)

16-9-6 (13 ran-good)

14-1-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-7-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-7-14 (14 ran-good)

7-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-1-2 (9 ran-heavy)

14-2-8-5 (18 ran-good)

2-4-10 (11 ran-good)

6-9-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-7-8 (9 ran-good)

Fourteen furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.10: All six winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or less, whilst successful favourites are conspicuous by their absence following six renewals to date.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Four of Jeremy Noseda’s last ten runners had won at the time of writing (notwithstanding two silver medallists during the period) and Jeremy’s 30% strike rate here at Sandown stands the closest inspection.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Yes It’s The Boy (scheduled to contest the 3.00 event) was Ed Walker’s only runner on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting impressive 4/7 stats at the track.  Other trainers at Yarmouth to take into consideration are Paul D’Arcy, Roger Varian and Sir Mark Prescott.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Apart from obvious names such as William Haggas and Mark Johnston to respect, Sylvester Kirk and Jo Hughes are likelier to produce big priced winners at the seaside venue.

Well I Declare, 19th July

Well I Declare 19/7/12

Well I Declare 19/7/12

Today's action comes from Bath, Brighton, Doncaster, Epsom and Hamilton, but Leicester has once again failed to beat the weather!
Here's a recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day...

THURSDAY 19/7:

Bath:

General stats: Gabriel’s Lad was due to be ridden in the scheduled 7.35 event by Eddie Ahern who is not the most regular visitor to Bath races.  Eddie boasts a 22% strike rate at the track via fourteen winners in recent years, a ratio which has produced fourteen points of level stake profits.  Watch out for any additional rides that Eddie picks up at the meeting.

 

Brighton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda (38%) and Saeed Bin Suroor (36% via far less runners) are trainers to keep on the right side, as his Neil Callan who rides this track as well any anyone. Neill boasts eighteen points of level stake profits via eighty-six rides at the track in recent times.

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Doncaster:

General stats: Roger Varian (33%), Sir Henry Cecil (26%) and Luca Cumani (24%) all boast decent strike rates at Doncaster and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.

Maiden event for juvenile fillies due to be contested at 6.50: Favourites come into the contest on a hat trick, whilst three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Juvenile Novice event over six furlong scheduled for 7.25: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

One mile Conditions event due to be contests at 7.55: The last three market leaders have prevailed, albeit the first three favourites all missed out on toteplacepot positions, one of which finished behind 66/1 and 8/1 horses which dead heated back in 2008.

Ten furlong Class 4 all aged handicap scheduled for 8.30: Only one of the three subsequent favourites finished in the frame following the success of the inaugural 3/1 market leader in 2008.  Four-year-olds have won three renewals to date, with just one beaten representative when the vintage missed out two years ago.

Ten furlong Class 5 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 9.00: Three of the four favourites have secured place money, though all three market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective since 2008 when the inaugural 6/4 'jolly' obliged.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Andrew Balding still boasts an impressive fifty-two points of level stake profits via a 23% strike rate  at Epsom during the last five years, with the trainer holding five options for the meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Two riders who do not receive as many plaudits as others can be kept on the right side at Hamilton.  Amy Ryan boasts a 26% strike rate via eleven winners at the track, a ratio which has netted fifty-three points of level stake profits.  Jason Hart has ridden four winners via just twelve assignments at the venue.

 

Leicester: ABANDONED!

General stats: I’m sure that Saeed Bin Suroor would love the opportunity of improving his 41% strike rate at Leicester…if only the venue could stage a meeting sometime this year!

Trainer Stats: 3rd May 2012

Jim Boyle Is Starting To Hit Form

Andy Newton gives you eight in-form trainers to look out for this week........... Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th April 2012

Roger Varian Has His String In Fine Form

Andy Newton highlights 8 flat trainers that are starting the new season on the front foot........... Read more

Trainer Trends – 20th Oct

Training GallopsWith the jumps season starting to hit top gear find out which NH handlers are hitting the ground running, while there’s a high-profile flat trainer who is on the cold list and heading for his worst campaign for over 20 years..... Read more

Trainer Trends 8th Sept

Richard Hannon

Hannon's Team Are In Flying Form

With the jumping fixtures extremely thin on the ground over the next few weeks Andy Newton concentrates on the flat handlers that are hot as we enter the final few months of the turf season. Plus he's got two trainers whose runners are not quite running as well as normal.... Read more

Hot Trainers 4th Aug

 

Barry Hills

Barry Hills

It’s that time of the week again as leading horse racing pundit Andy Newton arms you with some much needed ammo to take the bookies on with as he continues with his popular Hot & Cold Trainers feature......... Read more