Tix Picks, Tuesday 17/09/24

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Brighton, Newcastle, Redcar & Yarmouth...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And I think we'll head South to Brighton where the going is expected to be good for our six races starting with...

Leg 1 : 2.20 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

(2) Realised was third last time out, albeit almost 14 weeks ago, but he was the only runner here to make the frame on their last outing. (3) Bear To Dream has two wins and a play from his last five starts, making him the ‘form’ horse, whilst (1) Lochaber and (5) Thunderous Love both won five starts ago with the rest of the field now winless in seven or more. Thunderous Love now drops in class and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Card Stats : Harry Eustace (2-Realised) runners have made the frame here at Brighton in 5 of 10 over the last year and 13 of 23 over five years.

This could be a falsely run affair with no pronounced front-runner in the race...

...which would then favour/allow the 'better' runners to run their own race, although Lochaber, Another Jack, Realised and Bear To Dream have all set the pace once in their last four starts.Thunderous Love might struggle to land a blow from the back of the pack or I might have been interested.

Pretty unimaginative stuff from me here, as my 1-2-3 would be Bear To Dream, Realised & Lochaber. I only want to take two from this race, so I'll omit Realised in pursuit of a better price on Lochaber!

Selection :  (1) Lochaber & (3) Bear To Dream

Leg 2 : 2.50 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 7f

I’m not going to beat about the bush here and I’d be very shocked if (2) Usuario Amigo didn’t bolt up here. He has made the frame twice at Class 4 and once at Class 3 (two starts ago) and he’d be my banker today.

Card Stats : Charlie Longsdon (3-Artemsia) runners have made the frame in 4 of 7 over the last fortnight and 7 of 14 over the past 30 days.

Selection :(2) Usuario Amigo

Leg 3 : 3.20 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f

Joint top-weight (1) Gallimimus is the sole LTO winner in the pack, but (5) Fighting Poet won his penultimate start and has made the frame in each of his last three. (2) Villalobos and (7) Clear Justice both finished 6th last time out, but have both won two of their last four, whilst bottom-weight (11) First Encounter has a win and a runner-up finish from his last three.

Card Stats : 11 of John Gallagher’s (1-Gallimimus) LTO winners have gone on to make the frame next time out. John O’ Shea (4-Letter of the Law) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

The place pace/draw heat map points to front runners literally leading the way here...

...which is much better news for the likes of Villalobos than it is for Fighting Poet...

...but the Poet is in good nick despite being a persistent back marker. Gallimimus has led in two of his last three, so I'm happy to take him too.

Selection : we'll take three here, (1) Gallimimus(2) Villalobos (5) Fighting Poet yet still be worried about (4) Letter Of The Law

Leg 4 : 3.50 Brighton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f

(1) Saint Riquier comes here on a hat-trick, drops in class and is unpunished for 10-length stroll at Leicester a week ago. He was in the frame at Class 4 in early-August before those two Class 5 wins and it’s very difficult to see him not being in the first three home. Such is his apparent dominance here, there’s a chance that the other seven runners might all be double-digit odds, the interesting one of those might be the 8 yr old (6) Torbellino who was only caught very late on in a defeat here over course and distance last time out when collared by Fighting Poet. Fighting Poet runs in the 3.20 race, of course and that might indicate how Torbellino might run.

Card Stats : Sheena West (4-Gearing’s Point) has 7 placers from 9 runners turned back out within 7 days of their last run.

Saint Riquier will go off really short and is ideally placed on the pace/draw stats to win the race, never mind make the frame!

Selection (1) Saint Riquier

Leg 5 : 4.20 Brighton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m

The fast-finishing (1) Walefya was a runner-up beaten by a head over this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell last time out, just six days after winning here over course and distance, whilst (2) Romanovich has two wins and a place from his last four starting with a course and distance win here in early August and a win at Chepstow three weeks ago. Of the others, (3) Interestnpenalities is coming a bit of a nearly horse, having been a runner-up now in each of his last three starts, but did win over 7f at Wolverhampton on St George’s Day. (4) Sorontar & (5) Heers Sadie both finished third recently, but both look to have plenty to find against the other three above.

Card Stats : (1) Waleyfa’s yard have had 14 placers from their 28 runners over the last 30 days, John O’ Shea (2-Romanovich) has 6 placers from 11 here over the last year.

I see a Waleyfa/Romanovich 1-2 here based on form/stats and they're going to head the market, which isn't good for pot building, but I can't see any of the others getting to them. Of those others, the unexposed (4) Sorontar might be the one to build upon a third place finish at Windsor last time out, but third might be as good as he gets here, which isn't helpful in a 7-runner field.

Selection (1) Waleyfa (2) Romanovich

Leg 6 : 4.50 Brighton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

(1) Otago won last time out, as did (10) Forgotten Treasure, who has two wins and place from his last five outings, but the runner bringing the best set of results to the table is hat-trick seeking (6) Split Elevens, whose last six results read 211311. Elsewhere former course and distance winners (3) Poetic Force and (4) Electric Avenue both drop in class. The former narrowly missed out on making the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst the latter is now only 1lb higher than that C&D win from mid-June.

Card Stats : William Knight (10-Forgotten Treasure) has four placers from five Brighton runners over the last year (three wins) and his LTO winners have made the frame in 28 of 45 races next time out, winning 14 (31.1%) of them.

Forgotten Treasure is also the pick of the pack from the win pace/draw heat map here...

...although those drawn highest are well suited too, whilst Instant Expert points us towards Otago, the out of form Amathus, Electric Avenue, Split Elevens and Forgotten Treasure...

 

I think I'm going to go fairly deep here in a bid to consolidate what we have, if we're still in the running.

Selection (1) Otago (3) Poetic Force (4) Electric Avenue (6) Spilt Elevens (10) Forgotten Treasure

Leg 1: horses 1 & 3

Leg 2: horse 2

Leg 3: horses 1, 2 & 5

Leg 4:horse 1

Leg 5: horses 1 & 5

Leg 6: horses 1, 3, 4, 6 & 10

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24