Tag Archive for: Charlie Johnston

Dear My Friend to break new ground for Middleham Park in Derby

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Middleham Park Racing will have their first Betfred Derby runner as Dear My Friend bids to do his owners proud this weekend.

The chestnut is one of 16 possibles for the Epsom Classic on Saturday and will mark a significant milestone when he carries the syndicate’s familiar pale blue and orange silks in the revered Group One.

The colt’s route to the Derby included the Dante at York earlier in the month, an established trial in which he finished eighth, and a win in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s all-weather track in early April.

Those efforts, added to two successes and a handful of Listed and Group performances as a juvenile, have left him on a rating of 104 ahead of the Derby – for which he is currently a 100-1 shot for trainer Charlie Johnston.

“It’s our first ever runner in the race, we’re going into it with eyes wide open,” said Mike Prince of Middleham Park.

“He was well beaten in the Dante but we think the step up in trip will suit him. There’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t say, there’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t handle the track and there’ll be a few horses in the race who don’t handle the occasion – hopefully we’ll be there trying to pick up some of the pieces.

“He’ll need to take a step up in his form, he’s a notch below the favourites at the moment but we’re hoping that step up in trip will lead to some improvement from him. He’s got a lovely, long stride and a slow cadence.”

Though likely to be an outsider with the market favouring Group winners such as Auguste Rodin and Derby Trial winner Military Order, it is not unheard of that a horse at a big price should go well and there are recent examples in Hoo Ya Mal, who was second at 150-1 last year, and 50-1 chance Mojo Star who came second the year before.

Dear My Friend (right) winning the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle
Dear My Friend (right) winning the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle (Richard Sellers/PA)

Prince said: “There have been some horses at big prices making up the placings in recent years, Hoo Ya Mal was 150-1 and I think the third and fourth that year were big enough prices (Westover at 25-1 and Masekela at 66-1).

“That’s one of the things we said to the owners when were deciding to enter, there’s good place money down to sixth and they’re all delighted that we’re rolling the dice.

“He is rated 104 so he is going there on his merits, it’s a race with a great sense of tradition and there’ll certainly be a good contingent there to support him and enjoy the occasion.”



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Charlie Johnston sure Dubai Mile can go the Derby distance

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Not many €20,000 purchases head to the Betfred Derby with leading claims – but that is certainly the case for Charlie Johnston’s Dubai Mile.

A Group One winner as a juvenile over 10 furlongs in France, he dropped back down in trip to finish a very respectable fifth in the 2000 Guineas behind Chaldean.

It is often said the best trial for the Derby is the Guineas, and in a year when the ante-post favourite, Auguste Rodin, finished 12th of 14 at Newmarket, Johnston has every right to be feeling bullish about the claims of his Roaring Lion colt on Saturday week.

Dubai Mile has struck up a good relationship with jockey Danny Muscutt – who celebrated his first Group One win when landing the Criterium de Saint-Cloud with him – and his availability on June 3 was the final piece of the preparation jigsaw once Canberra Legend’s Derby dreams ended at York.

“We did flirt with the idea of taking him to Epsom on Monday (for the gallops morning), but one of the determining factors for that was if Danny wasn’t going to be able to ride him, as going into the Dante there was a bit of a discussion,” said Johnston.

“If he wasn’t available it would have been a good opportunity to let a new jockey have a sit on the horse and get a feel for him, but given I was never going to push Danny into a decision he didn’t need to make until after the event, that has fallen by the wayside.

“Danny gets a tune out of him. It’s a twist of fate or whatever that this horse broke his maiden on a Sunday at Windsor. At the time I was just looking at jockeys available who had good stats at Windsor and that is how he ended up on the horse. We’re always keen to keep winning combinations together if we can.

“One of the most important factors we always feel is confidence and without a doubt he will have more confidence in this horse than anyone else we could get to ride him. Danny is doing a good job of putting himself on the map, but this horse is accelerating the process by giving him his first Group One winner and being a horse that has taken him into Classics.”

Charlie Johnston has a live Derby contender in his first season with the licence in his name only
Charlie Johnston has a live Derby contender in his first season with the licence in his name only Danny Lawson/PA)

Being able to stay 10 furlongs as a juvenile is usually a prerequisite to staying a mile and a half, if not further, at three, and it was for that reason Johnston needed to be persuaded by his record-breaking father Mark to run back over a mile in the Guineas.

“You shouldn’t get too ahead of yourself in thinking you will stay the trip when he’s untested, but we’ve always been very confident it would improve him if anything,” said Johnston, who this year holds the training licence solely in his name.

“After the event I can say I was never really that keen on going for the Guineas and had some strong debates with dad about it. I’d thought all winter he’d go Dante-Derby, the traditional trial and what we’d done with Gear Up who won the same Saint-Cloud race.

“But his gallop at Newmarket tilted us into thinking he wouldn’t be disgraced in the Guineas and if he could run into third it would be a game changer for him as a stallion.”

There have been well-publicised reports that animal rights protesters will be trying to disrupt Derby day, but Johnston, while worried for the potential bad publicity for the sport, feels he has a colt that will not be perturbed by a delay should it come to it, as it did with the Grand National.

Johnston said: “He’s a very relaxed colt, but it will be interesting to see what the day brings. It’s a concern for Epsom and for horse racing, but it’s not a specific concern for this horse as he’s been to lots of tracks and different countries and takes everything in his stride. Any delay for all horses isn’t ideal, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world for him.

“To be going to Epsom with a chance in the Derby is why you get hooked on racing at a young age. We just want to win – at every level. But winning at the highest level has the biggest repercussions for Johnston Racing going forward. We want this to be the norm, competing with the big boys week in and week out.

“There’s always a bit made of the north versus south thing, but we’re as big as anyone – dad’s record is there for all to see. I’m aware the north hasn’t won the Derby since Dante, and that wasn’t even at Epsom, so it would be great for the north and Middleham but that is not my concern – I’m here to win it for Johnston Racing and Ahmad Al Shaikh.”



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Two-Year-Old Runners on Debut: Part 2

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This is the second in a two-parter looking at two-year-old (2yo) debut runners, writes Dave Renham. The first part - which you can read here - looked at market factors, gender, sires and damsires. This concluding half hones in on a plethora of trainer data. I have collated data for UK flat racing for six full years from 2017 to 2022, and this includes both turf and all-weather. I have calculated profit and loss to Betfair SP (BSP), with commission of 5% taken into account.

 

Overall 2yo debut stats for trainers

I am going to start with a full table of trainers who have had at least 75 two-year old debut runners in the past six seasons. I think it is important to share as much raw trainer data as possible. I have ordered the trainers by win strike rate:

 

* C Johnston from 2023; ** Jack Channon from 2023

 

Any trainer from Eve Johnson Houghton upwards deserves credit, with ten of those eleven in profit as well as having a decent strike rate. Sticking with strike rate, Charlie Appleby stands head and shoulders above the rest and I will be digging deeper into his stats later in the piece.

 

2yo debutants in 5f races

I want to split the data by distance so I am looking at the minimum trip first. There are fewer 2yo races over 5f compared to six and seven furlongs, so that does need to be taken into account. Here are win strike rates for those trainers who have had at least 50 debut runners over 5f:

 

 

There are three trainers with excellent strike rates of over 20% (Archie Watson, Clive Cox and the Johnston stable); at the other end of the scale Tim Easterby is a pretty dismal 1 from 118. Not surprisingly Watson, Cox and Johnston have all made a blind profit with their runners to BSP. Having said that, I would personally be a little wary about Watson as the last three seasons have been less good than before with only three winners from 27 (admittedly he has had a few near misses).

Another trainer worth mentioning is Michael Bell. He did not have enough runners to qualify for the graph above, but of his 39 juvenile debutants over five furlongs, 10 won (SR 25.6%) for a BSP profit of £17.41 (ROI +44.6%).

 

2yo debutants in 6f races

Up an extra furlong now to three-quarters of a mile, or six furlongs if you prefer. Again, a trainer must have saddled a minimum of 50 qualifiers to appear in the table. Here are all the trainers who qualify, this time in tabular form:

 

 

As can be seen, the profit / loss figures are all over the place – you only have to look at the stats for Jamie Osborne to see that. Just one decent priced outsider winning can turn a very poor run of results into a profitable set.

Richard Hannon has comfortably secured the most winners, but he has had the most runners over this trip. Four of the six study years have actually turned a profit, with only one poor year which was 2020. Hannon's profits have come from maiden races rather than novice events and he has recorded a 19% win strike rate in the month of May. In fact his winning percentage when combining May, June and July results is almost double that of his August to December figure (13.9% versus 7.2%).

 

2yo debutants in 7f races

Onto to 7 furlongs now. The data is based on 50 runs minimum once more and the focus is on the trainers with the highest win percentages:

 

 

Charlie Appleby remains head and shoulders above the rest, but one other stat that stood out was for the Johnston stable. Their record in June in 7f races has been excellent with 14 debut winners from 49 (SR 28.6%) for a BSP profit of £40.41 (ROI +82.5%). Not only that, 12 further horses were placed. I am wondering if this is down to excellent race placement: June is the first full month of 2yo 7f races and many of the big juvenile stars of the future tend to be seen later in the season. Hence the standard of 7f races in June are likely to be weaker in quality compared with later in the year.

Before moving away from the June Johnston data, it is worth sharing that 12 of his winners figured in the top three in the betting from 32 runners returning an impressive over 90 pence in the £.

 

2yo debutants in 1m+ races

A look at the longest distances now. The furthest distance a two-year-old runs is 1 mile 3 furlongs and that has only occurred twice in the last six seasons. Just over 70% of races at 1 mile or more are actually raced at a mile.

Let’s look at the trainer splits (50 runs or more):

 

These are the only trainers to qualify, mainly because longer distance races for 2yos are less common. Indeed, there are nearly twice the number of 7f races compared to races of 1 mile and up.

Charlie Appleby again tops the table to make it a clean sweep at distances from six furlongs to a mile, so now it is time to dig deeper into his record with 2yos making their racecourse debut.

 

Charlie Appleby's 2yo Debutants

To begin with let us look at the yearly breakdown in terms of win percentage / strike rate:

 

 

As the graph shows he has struggled to maintain those staggeringly high figures from the first three years in the review window. However, the figures for 2020 to 2022 are still pretty darn good.

I want to look at jockey data now; William Buick and James Doyle are the two riders Appleby uses the most as the table shows:

 

 

As punters, these type of findings are clearly important. Buick and Doyle have scored twice as frequently when compared to all other jockeys that have ridden 2yo debutants for Appleby. Clearly we should focus our attention on the mounts of Buick and Doyle only.

In terms of price, most of Appleby’s runners are at, or near, the head of the market. I have split his results by different Industry SP price bands but with the results calculated once again to BSP.

 

 

The table suggests that the very shortest priced runners are poor value. From this past data it seems better to focus on horses that are likely to be priced between 13/8 and 7/1.

Here are some other Appleby stats I would like to share:

  1. 2yo debutants over 5f are rare which is why he did not appear in the 5f stats earlier. However, from his 20 5f runners, an amazing 13 won (SR 65%) for a BSP profit of £26.95 (ROI +134.8%).
  2. Appleby has a similar strike rate with male and female runners – male runners have won just over 28% of their starts, females just under 27%.
  3. He does not send that many runners out early in the season. However, if we combine April and May data he has secured 22 victories from only 51 first starters (SR 43.1%) for a profit of £26.48 (ROI +51.9%).
  4. He sends more debutants to turf courses (245 versus 99) but again has similar strike rates. On turf it is 28.6% and on the sand it 26.3%. The A/E indices are almost identical as well (0.91 and 0.92).

 

Trainers and 2yo debutants in the top three in the betting

Moving away from a specific focus on Charlie Appleby now, I want to examine trainer records when their debutants start in the top three in the betting. This avoids big-priced winners skewing the profit and loss figures. It also makes it a relatively fair comparison between the trainers. I have used 50 or more runs once again as my qualifying mark:

 

 

I find this type of table illuminating. Considering the prices (96% of all the qualifying runners were single figure prices), any trainer in profit has fared extremely well. The top five in terms of strike rate - Appleby, Charlton, Watson, Bell and Cox - have secured a profit, and I feel these trainers are worth noting this season when one of their runners is in the top three of the betting.

At the other end of the scale, Andrew Balding has a really poor record: of his 18 favourites just one has prevailed. In Balding's defence, the stable is very much known for horses improving through their early starts. His runners won just 8.2% on debut in the six-year study period, but that shot up to 17.4% on second start, 22% on third start and 26% on fourth start. Not strictly 'on topic' but worth noting.

The A/E indices are shown in the table but I think it worth graphing them as well to see which trainers have been the best ‘value’ according to this metric:

 

 

The seven trainers with the highest A/E indices are also the seven trainers with the highest strike rates (albeit not perfectly in the same order). The trainers with the lowest five A/E indices (all under 0.65) are the trainers that fill the bottom five places in the strike rate order. As a general rule, you would expect to see that type of correlation with strike rates and A/E indices, but it does not always happen like that.

 

Trainer Jockey combinations with 2yo debutants

Earlier we saw the importance of jockey booking when looking at Charlie Appleby debutants. Well, there are a couple of other trainers where we find similar stats. Firstly Archie Watson:

 

 

Oisin Murphy has not ridden for Watson for over a year due to his suspension, but it is clear from this data that if he, Danny Tudhope, or Hollie Doyle especially is on board then a good run is expected. The 11.1% figure for ‘All other jockeys’ is poor in comparison.

Likewise when we examine the Gosden stable we see a similar pattern. Robert Havlin has ridden 220 of the 512 2yo debutants and his win record far outstrips the rest:

 

 

There is a huge difference in A/E indices, too, with Havlin at an impressive 1.07 and all other jockeys combining to average out at 0.76. The final stat to mention here is that Havlin / Gosden runners have proved profitable over the 220 debut rides to the tune of 34p in the £ at Betfair SP.

 

Trainers and Courses for 2yo debutants

Data is a little limited here so I would not go headlong into backing every combo in the table. However, I still want to share the most impressive course stats for some trainers. The vast majority have produced a six year profit and all bar one have produced a strike rate of 20% or more. The one that did not was close to that mark (19.35%) and, due to a good sample size (62 runs), I thought it was worth including:

 

 

This table is a bit of a 2yo debut Trainer Track Stats, to use Matt's previous trainer-based report terminology. Personally, during this upcoming season, I will be taking note of any of these combinations that have secured a double figure number of wins – I will not back them blind, but I will look at the relevant runners in some detail in order to determine whether I would deem them to a potential bet or not. The Gosden / Yarmouth combo is one I will certainly look out for.

Before I finish, let me summarise some of the key stats this article has highlighted:

 

MAIN 2yo DEBUTANT PART 2 TAKEWAYS

  1. Charlie Appleby has by far the highest win percentage and he is consistent across all race distances. His 13 wins from 20 runners in 5f races is arguably the highlight despite the smaller sample size.
  2. In 5f races the stables of Archie Watson, Clive Cox and Charlie Johnston have the best strike rates of those with 50+ runners over the six-year period.
  3. Over 6f Charlie Appleby and the Crisford stable are the only ones to have secured strike rates in excess of 20%.
  4. The Johnston stable has had an excellent record in the month of June in 7f races.
  5. Over 1 mile+ Charlie Appleby, Ralph Beckett and the Gosden stable have the strongest looking stats.
  6. Charlie Appleby, Roger and Harry Charlton, Archie Watson, Michael Bell and Clive Cox are trainers who have secured good strike rates with 2yo debutants from the top three in the betting. In addition they have all secured individual profits.
  7. Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute, Charlie Hills and Andrew Balding have poor records with 2yo debut runners which start in the top three in the betting. All are famously patient trainers.
  8. Charlie Appleby does twice as well with juvenile debutants when either William Buick or James Doyle are on board when compared with all other jockeys.
  9. Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle, and the Gosden stable with Robert Havlin are positive trainer / jockey combos.
  10. There were 12 wins from 41 2yo debutants from the Gosden stable making their racecourse bow at Yarmouth. These runners have produced profits of over 92p in the £.

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I hope you have found the two articles on 2yo debutants useful. I certainly enjoyed uncovering these interesting angles. 2yo debutants will now take a back seat, editorially speaking, with my attention switching to 2yos on their second starts. That is next on the agenda for researching and next week I will be sharing my findings with Geegeez readers.

Until then...

- DR



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Dear My Friend sparks Derby dream for Middleham Park Racing

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Dear My Friend marked himself as a smart prospect by winning the talkSPORT Burradon Stakes, the opening event on All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Newcastle.

Trained by Charlie Johnston, the son of Pivotal won his first two outings at two before being highly tried in Pattern company in his final three starts of the campaign.

Placed efforts at Deauville and in Newmarket’s Zetland Stakes was enough to convince connections to add the colt to the Derby earlier this week and he justified that belief at Gosforth Park.

James Doyle was in no rush aboard the Middleham Park Racing-owned charge in the early stages, but came home with a flourish and his proven stamina saw him always holding Karl Burke’s runner-up Flight Plan inside the final furlong.

The winning rider said: “We got squashed at the start. It was a funny race, we dawdled and then one took off which opened the race up. We got sucked into the race nicely and I knew his stamina would come into play, he galloped out strong.

“You’d think he’d stay 10 furlongs fine but he’s quite a strong traveller so over 12 he would have to settle better, he was quite fresh today with it being his first run. He would need to relax a bit better but these Johnston horses do stay well.”

A 100-1 shot for Epsom prior to this Listed event, Paddy Power were suitably impressed with the performance and shortened Dear My Friend to 40-1 for the Classic on June 3.

Dear My Friend ridden by James Doyle (centre) wins the talkSPORT Burradon Stakes at Newcastle Racecourse
Dear My Friend ridden by James Doyle (centre) wins the talkSPORT Burradon Stakes at Newcastle Racecourse (Richard Sellers/PA)

He will now test his credentials for that assignment in a Derby trial, with Johnston nominating York’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes on May 18 as a next port of call.

“Fair play to Mike (Prince, of Middleham Park) as when I phoned him this week to say we were putting him in the Dante, he said let him have a think about the Derby and I’ll ring back. That was solely his idea,” said Johnston.

“Looking at that today, 10 furlongs looks perfect but 12 might be just too far. A lot went wrong today, he got flattened at the start, he was quite far back and had to make up a lot of ground through the middle of the race. I thought that might tell in the last 100 yards.

“Fair play to the horse, he knuckled down. The obvious thing would be to go to the Dante next but I’ll speak to Mike first.”

Prince, representing the owners, added: “He was always keen as a two-year-old but he had cover today. It was a messy race, they crawled and then sprinted but his stamina came into play. He’s got a lovely, long stride.

“We put him in the Dante and Derby this week and he’ll certainly go for a Derby trial and the plan is to go to Epsom, we think he’ll stay. I was worried he’d be too keen to stay but he showed today with cover he’s fine.

“We’ve never had a runner in the Derby so that would be a first for us, it would be a dream come true.

“We had a stellar season last year, our best ever, and we thought it might be tough to top that but we’ve started well.”



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Subjectivist taking direct path to Ascot Gold Cup

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Subjectivist will head straight to Royal Ascot as connections attempt to give the six-year-old the best possible chance of winning a second Gold Cup.

The son of Teofilo broke Stradivarius’ stranglehold on Ascot’s feature contest when storming to a five-length success in the Group One contest in 2021, but it was a long 618 days before he was seen on the track again having suffered a career-threatening injury.

He made his comeback in Saudi Arabia in February before moving on to Dubai last month in a bid to win a second Dubai Gold Cup and ran a pleasing race to finish third, beaten five lengths behind Broome.

Having come out of that race well, the six-time winner is enjoying a few easy weeks before being put through his paces again ahead of the Royal meeting, with trainer Charlie Johnston keen not to over-exert Dr Jim Walker’s fragile warrior away from the top staying contests.

“We’ve had a bit of debate about Sagaros and Yorkshire Cups and things, but the plan now for him, all being well and should we be able to get him there, is to go straight to Ascot,” said Johnston.

“With that in mind he’s just swimming and on the water walker at the moment and having an easy couple of weeks before we try to build him back up for the Gold Cup.

Joe Fanning riding Subjectivist celebrate winning the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in 2021
Joe Fanning riding Subjectivist celebrate winning the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in 2021 (Steven Paston/PA)

“We have a big, black cloud hanging over us every day now since his tendon injury and how long is a piece of string really, we don’t know how many bullets are left in the gun for us to fire and with that in mind we don’t really want to waste any in races like a Sagaro.

“He’s going to be campaigned in the three or four races that we really want to win and, touch wood, he has taken two races in a four-week window quite well.

“But once you’ve had a tendon injury, that is always something that is hanging over you to some degree and as a result we are only going to go into battle when it matters and the next time that will be, will be the Ascot Gold Cup.”



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Dubai Mile could take in 2000 Guineas on the way to Epsom

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Criterium de Saint-Cloud scorer Dubai Mile has been added to the list of Derby entries, with trainer Charlie Johnston revealing he will tune up for a potential tilt at the Epsom Classic in either the Qipco 2000 Guineas or York’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes.

Although beaten on debut as a juvenile, he won his next two starts in fine style before attempting to make all in the Royal Lodge over the Guineas track and trip, going down by half a length to Andrew Balding’s The Foxes.

That earned the son of Roaring Lion a shot at Group One glory in France and he thrived for the move up to 10 furlongs on that occasion, showing plenty of class and even more grit to hold off John and Thady Gosden’s Arrest by a head and highlight his Classic claims for the forthcoming campaign.

With connections opting to pay the £9,000 stake to add Dubai Mile to the race at the second entry stage, that campaign could be centred around a Derby bid as Johnston dreams of the colt becoming a standard-bearer for the yard during his first season as the sole licence holder at Kingsley Park.

“Any two-year-old that can win at Group One level leaves you dreaming over the winter about what they could achieve during their three-year-old campaign,” said Johnston.

“He’s obviously going to be a flagship horse for us this year and one we’re going to have realistic Classic ambitions with, so we’re very much looking forward to him.

Trainer Charlie Johnston has high hopes for Dubai Mile this season
Trainer Charlie Johnston has high hopes for Dubai Mile this season (Mike Egerton/PA)

“You need these horses to compete at the highest level to put you in people’s eyes and minds going forward and he’s a big flagship horse that we need and want a big year from – hopefully he can deliver.”

Despite Dubai Mile’s finest hour coming over 10 furlongs and holding an entry for the Dante on May 18, a return to the Rowley Mile and a crack at Newmarket’s opening Classic of the summer appears the preferred option of the colt’s owner Ahmad Al Shaikh.

“The Guineas is still on the table and Ahmad is quite keen for him to go there,” continued Johnston.

“For all the Dante is a significant race and the preeminent Derby trial, this horse has already won a Group One so his CV would be enhanced more by a placed effort in the Guineas than winning the Dante.

“He was only just touched off in the Royal Lodge over the Guineas course and distance and although I’m pretty certain he’s going to come into his own over middle-distances this year, I wouldn’t rule out his prep race being in the Guineas.

“They are the best two Derby trials and it will be one of the two races for him. Being a vanquished horse in the Guineas can often be the best Derby trial you can run.”



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Subjectivist on retrieval mission in Dubai Gold Cup

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Mark Johnston has placed Subjectivist among the best three horses he ever trained but confesses it is a “wing and a prayer job” as to whether he will ever return to his very best.

The 2021 Ascot Gold Cup winner will line up in Saturday’s Dubai Gold Cup, a race he won prior to his career highlight, but to repeat that success he will need to step up markedly on what he achieved in Saudi Arabia.

Making his first start for 618 days following a tendon injury, Subjectivist was understandably keen early on, giving himself no chance, and Johnston, who handed over the licence to his son Charlie recently, admits that following such a setback it may be difficult for him to return to his best.

He said: “He’s just gone round the training track once this morning with Joe Fanning on him. Since he’s come back from his injury he’s been a bit keen, as you may have seen at Saudi.

“He was too keen for his own good there, as he is on the gallops at home, so the main thing for us is to try and get him relaxed and settled. I don’t think we’ll work him on the grass at all as Charlie said he got very wound up in Saudi by being on the track every morning.

“It’s brilliant to have him back but it’s a wing and a prayer job. When you have a tendon injury like he did, you’re always thinking ‘when does the end come?’ – it will come at some point.

“As he was too keen on the night in Saudi and the event and build up proved to be a bit much for him, Charlie was keen to go to the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot and then the Gold Cup. We debated about it with John, our senior vet, and he said just to see really, who knows whether he’ll still be going come Ascot Gold Cup time so we thought we’d come here. The money is fantastic and makes a huge difference.”

Saturday’s contest is a strong one but rather than worry about the opposition, Johnston feels that Subjectivist will take all the beating if he can get back to the form he showed two seasons ago.

He went on: “It’s a very good race on Saturday, but there’s been no better staying races than the Ascot Gold Cup he won two years ago and it’s probably no better than the Gold Cup he won here. It’s down to whether he’s able to come back and perform as he used to.

“I put him in the category of our best three ever, because with the other two horses I never looked at the opposition. Those two horses were Shamardal and Attraction and it’s the same with this horse, we don’t look at the opposition.

“We look at whether he can run to his best and if he does that he’ll be tough to beat. We firmly believed that in 2021 he was the best stayer in the world and it’s just going to be whether he can get back to that.”



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Johnston outlines Dubai and Ascot options for Subjectivist

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The Dubai Gold Cup and the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot are the options under consideration for Subjectivist, with trainer Charlie Johnston far from despondent following his comeback run in Saudi Arabia.

The six-year-old was making his first competitive appearance in 618 days in Saturday’s Longines Red Sea Turf Handicap, having been sidelined by injury since his brilliant victory in the 2021 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

Hopes were high that he could make a fairytale return to the winner’s enclosure in Riyadh – but after managing to get to the front from his wide draw, his early exertions took their toll and he faded to finish 12th of 13 runners.

While disappointed with the result, Johnston has not given up on the prospect of Subjectivist once again establishing himself as a major Gold Cup contender.

“Of course I was hoping he would run better than he did,” said the Middleham handler.

“But given the way race panned out, he was obviously very, very fresh after a long time off and that was more accentuated by the fact that Joe (Fanning) had to light him up a bit to get him over from that draw. Once he’d lit the fuse, there was no going back.

“He was very, very keen for the first circuit. It was always going to be a big ask after that long a lay-off, but once he’d been as keen as he was, it was no huge surprise to see him get quite tired in the closing stages.

“Obviously we hoped and dreamed he could come back and win – we wouldn’t have gone there if we didn’t think that.

“But at the same time for the horse to show that he’s still got plenty of enthusiasm for the game and I don’t think he looked out of place in that field, giving a stone to some of the best stayers in the world, at least the dream is still alive that he could still be competitive at the highest level in staying races this year.

“We were a little bit disappointed on the night, but we’re far from down and out, that’s for sure.”

Future plans for Subjectivist are slightly complicated by the fact his return flight from Riyadh has been delayed.

A tilt at the Dubai Gold Cup (March 25), which he also won two years ago, is not being ruled out but appears dependent on how quickly he recovers from his recent trip across the globe.

Charlie Johnston still has high hopes for Subjectivist
Charlie Johnston still has high hopes for Subjectivist (Mike Egerton/PA)

Johnston added: “They were originally due to fly back tomorrow (Wednesday) but that has now been delayed until Friday, so he won’t be home until then.

“At the moment he seems fine. We’ll get a better handle on things once he’s back home, but the initial signs are good, so that’s promising at least.

“This delay makes things worse in that there’s only four weeks between Saudi and Dubai and now, given the time it’s taking to get him home and the time he’d need to leave before the race at Meydan, he’d only be back here for two weeks, so that is obviously going to have to be factored in.

“If he doesn’t go to Dubai, something like the Sagaro would seem the obvious next port of call for him, but we’ll wait and see the horse when he gets home and speak to Dr Jim (Walker, owner) and make a plan from there.”



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Mostahdaf apart, Saudi Cup day proves hard work for British runners

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The British flag was gloomily lowered in a sunlit corner of the globe yet again on Saturday when long-absent 2021 Ascot Gold Cup winner Subjectivist began his comeback in a noble yet unequivocal defeat.

He came only 12th of 13 in the $2.5million Red Sea Turf Handicap, beaten 10 lengths by Japan’s Silver Sonic.

The British contingent began to have a sinking feeling as soon as Joe Fanning rounded the bend at the end of the back straight. There was no burst of brilliant acceleration as in many of his other races, no hint of the imperiousness shown in his finest hour at the royal meeting two years ago.

Subjectivist could not even get close to Get Shirty, who came third, while the real battle was fought between Silver Sonic and Enemy who had finished 14th in the Ebor before winning a Dubai handicap, but not a horse on any previous reckoning in Subjectivist’s division.

Silver Sonic strode away to win by two and a half lengths. Subjectivist did not add to his bank-balance, although his owner, Scottish-born, Hong Kong-based economist Dr Jim Walker will survive.

After winning the Group One Prix Royal-Oak, Dubai Gold Cup and Ascot Gold Cup, Subjectivist’s winnings have just squeezed over the £750,000 mark. A win would have given him an additional £1.25m.

After the race came one of those jockey-trainer conversations between Fanning and Charlie Johnston which consist mostly of gesticulations, shrugs and quiet pauses. The significant sign language consisted of Fanning drawing his hands in to indicate the horse did not respond enough to his restraint.

Johnston has learned plenty from his father, for he was philosophical and consoling; it may be imagination, but one felt that the saddest figure in the tableau was Subjectivist, who could not utter an explanation.

A total of 618 days have passed since he cantered all over his rivals in the 2021 Ascot Gold Cup. Johnston, quite understandably, felt the lay-off with a near-fore tendon injury – which, but for mastery, patience and possibly wizardry, almost ended his career – made the difference.

“He was just too keen and I said to Joe this morning when we walked the track, that the couple of days he’d been on the track that he was just a bit too full of himself,” he said.

“The main thing now is he comes back in one piece and he’s shown that the enthusiasm for it is still there. We’ll lower our sights and we’ll go a bit closer to home, then find out where we are.

“I’m not too disappointed. I knew four out he was in trouble, because at that stage in Dubai and Ascot, that’s when he starts putting others to the sword and that wasn’t there.”

The trainer had a touch of triskaidekaphobia when the draw was made. Unlucky 13 it certainly was, leaving Fanning no choice but to go forward from the gate in the mile and seven-furlong contest.

Sunjectivist was lit up early and Fanning, himself recently coming off a lengthy injury, will doubtless feel a little sore in the shoulders after battling in vain for restraint.

Although a few months to go, Subjectivist’s defeat may be especially bad news for Royal Ascot’s marketeers, with Kyprios now almost certain to repeat his Gold Cup success and maintain his position as one of the finest stayers in history. For time is on the youngster’s side. Though only a year older at six, time lost has been an enemy of the Johnston team.

His trainer was philosophical, however, and added: “We knew what we are asking him to do was a big, big ask, but at the same time, where do you take the horse that won the Ascot Gold Cup last time out?”

This may have not been a day to extol European racing – the Brits were the ones who were defeated in every race bar one they entered, the gallant Mostahdaf, under an imperious ride from Jim Crowley, took the Group Three Neom Turf Cup in which George Boughey’s Missed The Cut was disappointing.

It was the same, too, for the Americans, with Bill Mott’s Elite Power finally giving the fans what they wanted – an armchair ride from Frankie Dettori, who scored by the proverbial country mile on the Juddmonte-owned “aeroplane” in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint.

Aside from that, the American horses were a little disappointing, the deeper dirt surface – which Dettori extolled as perhaps the best in the world – not playing to their strengths.

Yet it was still one heck of a day’s racing. Over 20,000 good-tempered local racegoers turned up at the King Abdulaziz Racecourse.

In the £20m Saudi Cup, the most valuable in the sport, Dettori stormed home late to take second on Country Grammer behind the Japanese-trained Panthalassa – the Bob Baffert-trained challenger finishing in the same spot as he did 12 months ago when ridden by Flavien Prat.

It was Japan’s third success of the evening – thanks to a brilliant ride from Yutaka Yoshida in a race where the Japanese-trained horses filled the first five places except the runner-up spot. There were also two victories for locally-trained horses, whose owners pocketed a combined $1.5m.

The people trying to turn the Saudi Cup event into something akin to a transglobal Super Bowl still have some way to go, but they are making this an established fixture on the international racing calendar – even though this was not a day for the Brits to truly celebrate.



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Subjectivist ready for high-profile Saudi Cup card return

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Charlie Johnston is used to injuries. A red baseball cap helped shield his bruised and cut left eyebrow as he watched Subjectivist stretch his legs ahead of sunrise at the King Abdulaziz Racecourse on Wednesday.

His own injury was sustained by the rigours of playing for rugby for Wensleydale. He suffered similar scarring last year. “One day, I’ll learn,” quipped the 32-year-old.

There is no hiding for Subjectivist, however. The injury sustained by this glorious stayer was far more extreme.

He will make his comeback in Saturday’s Group Three Longines Red Sea Turf Handicap, having been off the track since cantering all over his rivals in the 2021 Ascot Gold Cup.

The son of Teofilo will take on 12 rivals, including the John and Thady Gosden-trained Ebor winner Trawlerman, Ian Williams’ Meydan handicap hero Enemy, Karl Burke’s Prix Chaudenay scorer Al Qareem and Nate The Great from the Andrew Balding yard in the one-mile-seven-furlong contest.

Johnston’s relief that the yard’s latest superstar looked plenty fit enough for his return was palpable.

“It has been a very long road, 20 months since this horse saw the racecourse,” said Johnston.

“It has been a long journey for the team and one where we’ve trodden on egg-shells for the most of it.

“So, to see him back in this kind of environment is fantastic.”

He added: “Horses like him don’t come around very often. It was getting to that point where you don’t really care about the opposition.”

Subjectivist had excelled in the Middle East when winning the Dubai Gold Cup en route to his Ascot victory, yet misfortune befell him after beating the likes of Princess Zoe, Spanish Mission and Stradivarius at Ascot.

“About two weeks after the Ascot Gold Cup, he had an injury to his superficial flexor tendon – an injury which can be career-ending, basically – and to get horses back is no given,” added Johnston.

“We had the best stayer in the world and it was just a case of getting him on his ‘A game’.

“We left Ascot with Goodwood, Ascot, France, Dubai, Saudi (in mind) – you were just picking the races you wanted to win.

“To have that and to lose it was a huge blow to the yard. We are just hoping we can have him back to somewhere near his former glory.”

Nine months on a water-walker, a summer in the field and brought along slowly since he returned to work in September, including a pleasing piece of work at Newcastle two weeks ago, have primed Subjectivist for his first start in 618 days.

After flexing his muscles on the turf, Johnston hopes he can answer the $2.5million question under Joe Fanning, who himself has had to overcome a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

Subjectivist was an impressive Ascot winner in 2021
Subjectivist was an impressive Ascot winner in 2021 (David Davies/PA)

“We wouldn’t be here if we didn’t think we were ready,” Johnston added. “But at the same time any prep is difficult, but in particular in a situation when when you come back from such a serious injury.

“We took him to Newcastle and that was a pretty serious workout. That was the key point, to feel he was in shape to be ready to come here.

“What he did here today was to see him stretch his legs, see that he is fit and well and that he has taken the journey OK.

“The hard work has been done at home and now it is a case of keeping him wrapped up until Saturday.

“It is very much one day at a time with this horse. Every morning he canters up the gallop, he goes into his box and we check that his leg is still OK.

“I’ve barely allowed myself to think about Saturday, never mind think beyond Saturday.”

Charlie Johnston in Riyadh on Wednesday
Charlie Johnston in Riyadh on Wednesday (Simon Milham/PA)

The yard have a rich history with stayers such as Double Trigger and Royal Rebel, yet Subjectivist could quickly help the young handler emerge from the long shadow of his father, Mark, having recently taken over the licence.

“The only horses that he has mentioned in the same breath as Subjectivist are Attraction and Shamardal, because they are the three horses where we don’t care about the opposition,” said the trainer.

“These horses were just better than anything else and it was just a case of getting them there on their A-game.

“This horse has suffered a serious injury and it is a serious ask to get him back to that level. We have done everything we can and we will find out on Saturday.

Joe Fanning will be aboard Subjectivist again on Saturday
Joe Fanning will be aboard Subjectivist again on Saturday (Steven Paston/PA)

“He has worked a mile and a half round Newcastle. We haven’t worked him over the distance he’s going to run over, we haven’t put him into the red zone and we wouldn’t do that for any horse, but in particular a horse like this coming back from injury.

“Yet any of those three last runs in France, Dubai or Ascot is way ahead of what anything else in the field has achieved and it is just a case of how close to that level can we get a horse back after a tendon injury. It is a big ask, but we have done everything we can.

“We have had a runner in this race in all four renewals, so we are well used to it now. The ground tends to be quick.

“Again, that is a variable that doesn’t matter to us with this horse. He won in a swamp in France and on very quick ground out in Dubai. It is a beautiful track. It is fairly tight on the turf track but again, that should suit a horse like him – he’s not a slow horse by any stretch.

“Everything should suit him, really.”



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Subjectivist progressing towards possible return at Saudi Cup meeting

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Not seen since claiming Royal Ascot glory two years ago, Subjectivist could return to action on the Saudi Cup undercard in Riyadh next month.

The six-year-old was a brilliant winner of the Gold Cup in 2021, having previously landed the Prix Royal-Oak at ParisLongchamp and the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan.

However, it later emerged he had suffered what was potentially a career-threatening leg injury in winning at the Royal meeting and while there were initially hopes he would be back in 2022, he was ultimately unable to defend his Gold Cup crown.

Subjectivist is now back in full work, though, and while trainer Charlie Johnston is taking a day by day approach, he is pleased with what he has seen so far.

Johnston, who this week took over the training licence fully from his record-breaking father Mark, said: “Entries closed yesterday morning for the Saudi Cup meeting and Subjectivist has been entered in the Red Sea Turf Handicap – the one-mile-seven-furlong race.

“He’s been back in work since early October and has been cantering all the way through December and into January now.

“There’s still a long way to go – we haven’t started to turn the screw just yet with any faster work.

“Every day the fingers are crossed watching him, but so far so good.”



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Business as usual – Charlie Johnston off the mark as he aims high in first season

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Charlie Johnston has ambitious plans for a double century in 2023 after saddling his first winner in his own name at Kempton.

Following a year with a joint-licence alongside his record-breaking father Mark, it was confirmed last week that Charlie would hold the licence outright from the new year.

And while Johnston jnr insists it is very much business as usual at his Middleham base, he admits it was a relief to see Asdaa get the job done as only his second runner on Wednesday.

Mark and Charlie Johnston at Goodwood
Mark and Charlie Johnston at Goodwood (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

“As we’ve said all along, we’re not treating it as a huge change, but at the same time there was always going to be more eyes on those early runners than there would be ordinarily at this time of year, so it was good to get off the mark at just the second time of asking,” he said.

“With the change will come a greater scrutiny of results for the season ahead, so in that sense there is a bit of added pressure.

“Any dip in form or standards and people will attribute that to the change in control.”

Mark Johnston is the most successful trainer in the history of British racing in terms of numbers, having gone through the 5,000-winner barrier in the summer.

He also became the first trainer to saddle 200 winners in a calendar year in 2009, a feat a repeated on a further nine occasions, with his tally of 249 victories in 2019 his best.

With a joint-licence the Johnstons enjoyed 176 winners in Britain last year, as well as three on foreign soil, and Charlie is keen to ensure there is no slipping of standards.

He added: “As I jokingly said yesterday, one down, 4,999 to go – at least he hasn’t set the the bar too high!

“We’ll be setting out to better last year if at all possible and we’ve got one on the board. There’s a few to go still, though.

“As people probably know, we like to set targets. We set targets for each of our individual yard managers and then a target overall for the yard as a whole.

“It’s ambitious to beat the 179 winners from last year, but we’ll be targeting 200 winners again this year. That is the standard that we like to set ourselves and that’s what we’ll be aiming towards.

“We’re not all doing vastly different roles this week to what we were last week. A lot of the day-to-day management of things here at Kingsley Park in terms of what the horses are doing and what horses are galloping and such like, I’ve been planning the majority of that for a few years now, so in that sense no one’s role has really changed.

“No one is taking any feet off the pedal, that’s for sure – we’re all still full gas to achieve as much as we can in 2023.”

As far as Asdaa is concerned, there will be no chance to bask in the glory of becoming Charlie Johnston’s first winner, having been declared to run again at Kempton on Saturday.

Charlie Johnston has a lot to live up to
Charlie Johnston has a lot to live up to (Mike Egerton/PA)

Having also struck gold Newcastle on December 28, the seven-year-old will be bidding to complete a hat-trick in the space of 10 days, while Johnston also has high hopes for Star Mood on the same Kempton card.

He said: “Asdaa goes again over the same course and distance on Saturday. I think he’s effectively running off 71, but it will be his last chance to run in a 0-65 handicap so it seemed too good an opportunity to pass by when he’s obviously in very good fettle in himself.

“It will be a big ask for three wins in 10 days, but you’ve got to strike while the iron’s hot.

“Star Mood made a lovely debut at Kempton a few weeks ago and hopefully he’ll be able to go one better on Saturday.”



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Meeting Charlie Johnston

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The most predictable thing about Mark Johnston is his unpredictability, writes Tony Stafford. When most Scotsmen would be thinking of First Footing on New Year’s Eve, his mind was set on Last Running as he let it be known publicly that his entries in conjunction with son Charlie at Wolverhampton on that Friday evening would be his last.

That left Charlie Johnston, 32, as the sole licence holder at Middleham’s Kingsley House Stables. That long-standing name nowadays more importantly incorporates the magnificent Kingsley Park with its independent gallops less than a mile from the High Street.

Middleham has a wide range of excellent existing work facilities available to the other trainers in the area, which Johnston used for the longest part of his 34 years in the town. But with the stable size swelling beyond 200 horses, it became clear there was a need to ensure continuity of exercise every day. As anyone who knows Newmarket will tell you, delays of getting onto the gallops if stuck in behind a big string can be frustrating for trainers and cause difficulties for horses with the potential for over-excitement.

Thus Kingsley Park was designed, and is organised in eight self-contained stable blocks, all with access to the most up-to-date swimming pools, water treadmills, and with the veterinary and farriery expertise needed to keep the massive show on the road. They are all within yards from stepping on to the various gallops, be they grass or artificial. Each yard has its own manager, reporting directly to the management team and several assistant trainers, the best-known being the admirable Jack Bennett.

Since qualifying as a vet, Charlie has been increasingly involved in the family business and he, his father, and mum Deirdre form the Board of Directors. It was at their quarterly Board Meeting on December 1st that the suggestion of a more immediate change-over was first mooted. Let Charlie explain.

“When we first applied to the BHA for the joint-licence, which began on January 1st last year, we all had it in our minds that it would probably be something which would continue for four or five years as a partnership. It quickly came down to more like two years as the transition had gone smoothly from the outset.

“Then at the last Board Meeting, Dad said: “What about January 1st?” We looked at each other and everyone seemed to like the idea. It had the obvious benefit of making for a tidy transition.”

The first step was to check with the BHA that it could be arranged in time. Then the owners had to be consulted. Charlie said: “As of January 3rd, none of the owners has disagreed with the new arrangement. Of course, Dad will be here every day as usual and all the planning processes that have been in place for decades to decide what and where we run will continue unchanged.

“Mum will, as ever, be riding out her two lots on racehorses every morning, then go across to look after her eventers. She will also continue travelling the country and the world watching eventers she has with other people. The only thing really that will change in the short term is that, when they go on holiday, the phone won’t be ringing non-stop.”

After initially training in Lincolnshire, Mark and Deirdre Johnston moved to Middleham in 1988 buying Kingsley House which, at one time a decade or so earlier, had a less reputable incumbent in Ken ("Window") Payne, the one-time selling-plate king who I knew originally in the days when he trained in the New Forest.

One of his most famous episodes at that time was when he saddled two horses in a four-runner seller, putting his own apprentice John Curant on the “trier” and Lester Piggott on the wrong one. They were the right one (for Ken) and the wrong one (for the betting public) as, Big Jake I seem to remember, strolled home from Mr Bojangles and the Long Fellow.

It was while at Middleham that Payne took charge of a syndicate horse I organised with fellow Daily Telegraph journalists and habituees of Coral’s betting shop in Fleet Street. These included, bizarrely, two punting band leaders in Mike Allen and Trevor Halling – father of boxing commentator, Nick Halling.

Halling senior incidentally got such a kick from that connection that he made a new career in racing journalism in the south-east and was a long-standing regular at Lingfield and all the Sussex tracks. My friend Keith Walton, who is a former boxer who trains professionals, also coaches several Northern jockeys in the skills of the noble art. Keith, a regular on the racecourse in the summer, has a top prospect in David Crawford, known locally as the Black Panther. He promises that when Crawford next appears on a televised bill, he will ask Nick Halling about his father’s health.

Returning to Payne, a horse called Princehood started for us with the remarkable veteran Louie Dingwall who trained on the beach at Sandbanks, in Dorset, where her shack, with its own petrol pump, would represent at least £1 million worth of real estate nowadays – ask Harry Redknapp! One day, aged 86, and with limited vision, she drove her horsebox all the way to the south of France and won the Grand Prix des Alpes-Maritime and £13 grand with Treason Trial, her own horse.

Princehood, a 300gns auction buy, did nothing while in Dorset, but, sent north, won a BBC televised sprint on a Saturday at Lanark just before it closed in October 1977. In typical Payne fashion, he had told us to back him two days earlier in a modest race at Doncaster where he ran a stinker. Nobody had the foresight to take the 14/1 as we watched with dismay during our work break in the King and Keys pub in Fleet Street that Saturday.

Payne’s time at Middleham had various controversies, one of which was the suggestion that as more owners were attracted to the stable, it outgrew its capacity and there were instances of multiple occupation of boxes, fine with a mare and foal, but less advisable with hard-trained racehorses. Also, his accounting was reputedly off course, with it often taking several more than four quarters in a horse to complete the ownership whole! After his wife had gone off with the singer Gilbert O’Sullivan, Payne reputedly went to live in America with his male hairdresser!

The Johnston days happily have been much more conventional. From the outset in 1988 and by October 2017, in saddling Dominating to win at Pontefract, Mark became only the third trainer to saddle 4,000 winners in the UK. Less than a year later, Poet’s Society (Frankie Dettori) won at York at 20/1 to make it a record 4,194 wins and then, in August last year, Johnston crossed the unconscionable milestone of 5,000 victories when Dubai Mile won at Kempton.

Thus, with just the 5,000 (and a few) to aim at, Charlie set off with a 33-1 fourth at Lingfield on Monday and has runners all week from today (Wednesday). Everyone will be wishing this personable young man all the best.

One thing that hasn’t yet taken much of his attention is the use of the family plane, which Mark flies all over Europe and which Charlie concedes is a massive help in the organisation of their time.

“No, flying the plane is probably something that might happen eventually. There is no doubt that it has been a great advantage to be able to supervise everything on the gallops for two-thirds of the morning and still be down at Ascot or Newmarket in time for the first race at 2 o’clock.

“I’m not sure that as well as handing over the licence, Dad will be too excited about being an unpaid pilot for me; but flying has helped keep us in touch with everything, and it would be a shame if it were no longer available to us” he said. It would also make that lovely grass runway just behind the barns a severe waste.

Mark Johnston is relatively young at 63, compared with other senior trainers like Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden, the latter now named on a joint-licence with son Thady. But, as Charlie says, “He didn’t want to go on indefinitely. He and Mum have built all this up from nothing, and he never wanted it to just fritter away. I’ve no intention of that ever happening!”

Don’t worry   - it won’t!

- TS



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