Tag Archive for: cheltenham horse racing tips and trends

Cheltenham TV Trends (1st Jan 2022)

A massive day of action at Cheltenham this New Year’s Day as we begin 2022 with the ITV cameras taking in four races.

The track and their officials will be hoping for better luck that last year as the meeting was called off.

As always, here at Geegeez we are on hand with a look at all the televised races from Prestbury Park from a trends angle – use these stats to help find the best winning profile of past winners of the race.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1.25 – Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Reg as the Dipper Novices’ Chase) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4 ½f

18/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
18/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
15/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
13/18 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/18 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
10/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Aged 7 years-old
7/18 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/18 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 - Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/18 - Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 10)
2/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of the last 8)
1/18 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)

2.00 – Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

18/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
17/18 – Raced within the last 2 months
16/18 – Had won at least twice over fences before
15/18 – Either French (6) or Irish (9) bred
15/18 – Had won over 2m4f or further (fences) before
15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Rated 138 or higher
13/18 – Aged 8 or older
12/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/18 – Unplaced last time out
11/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (3 of the last 7)
1/18 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Oldgrangewood (12/1) won the race in 2020
Aso (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

2.35 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV

15/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
13/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
13/17 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before
12/17 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
12/17 – Rated 130 or higher
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Carried 10-9 or more
10/17 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/17 – Won by a mare
1/17 – Went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)


3.10 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

15/17 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (10) bred
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham before (note, 2021 running was at Kempton)
11/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
10/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
7/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
McFabulous (10/11 fav) won the race in 2021
Summerville Boy (10/1) won this race in 2020
Agrapart (16/1) won the race in 2017

Note: The 2021 running was staged at Kempton

 

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Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 11th Dec 2021

A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting (The International) continues this Saturday, plus the ITV4 cameras also head to Doncaster for three races - as always, here at Geegeez, we are on hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Racing Post Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

19/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
15/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/19 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
14/19 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
13/19 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
13/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Officially rated 141 or higher
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
8/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/19 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
6/19 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
2/19 – Trained by David Pipe
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/19 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 10/1

 

2.25 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

17/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
10/17 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
8/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/17 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
9 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 years-old

 

3.00 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

18/18 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
14/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
14/18 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
13/18 –  Favourites placed
12/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
12/18 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/18 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/18 – Rated 162 or higher
7/18 – Winning distance:  4+ lengths
6/18 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/18 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
Song For Someone (6/1) won the race 12 months go
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

3.35 – Close Brothers Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
All six winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 - Winners carried 10-11 or more
5/6 - Aged 7 or younger
4/6 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/6 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Lucy Wadham, Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball have won the race in the past

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

 

12.55 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
10/11 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – French (2) or Irish (5) bred
7/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 8 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
The last 9 winners returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting

Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park

 

2.40 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

11/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/11 – Had won just once before over hurdles
9/11 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Irish (3) or French (5) bred
7/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/11 - Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/11 – Trained by John Quinn
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Peace and Co won the race in 2014 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle

 

3.15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4

11/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Had won no more than 2 times over fences
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/12 – Unplaced last time out
9/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
6/12 – Aged 7 years-old
6/12 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/12 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
2/12 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 7 winners were rated 139
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

Racing Post Gold Cup Trends

The Racing Post Gold Cup (formerly the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup) is run over 2m5f  at Cheltenham’s December Meeting each season around the middle of the month.

In recent years, trainer Paul Nicholls’ has won the prize five times, the most recent being Frodon in 2018. Nicky Henderson is another trainer to look out for - having won the race three times since 2002 – while last year (2020) the race was won by the Michael Winters-trained Chatham Street Lad, who was only the third Irish-trained winner of the race in last 19 runnings.

It's also interesting that ALL of the last 24 winners were aged 8 or younger.

It’s generally, been a good contest for the bookmakers with just one winning favourite in the last 19 runnings (last winning market leader was in 2009), but that’s not to say those at the head of the market don’t do well as 12 of the last 19 winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting – while three of the last eight Racing Post Gold Cup winners returned 7/1.

Here at GeeGeez we look back at recent winners and give you all the trends that matter ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday December 11th.

 

Recent Racing Post Cup Winners

2020 - Chatham Street Lad (16/1)
2019 – Warthog (7/1)
2018 – Frodon (7/1)
2017 – Guitar Pete (9/1)
2016 – Frodon (14/1)
2015 – Villiage Vic (8/1)
2014 – Niceonefrankie (16/1)
2013 – Double Ross (7/1)
2012 – Unioniste (15/2)
2011 – Quantitativeeasing (6/1)
2010 – Poquelin (16/1)
2009 – Poquelin (7/2 fav)
2008 – Abandoned
2007 – Tamarinbleu (22/1)
2006 – Exotic Dancer (8/1)
2005 – Sir Oj (16/1)
2004 – Monkerhostin (4/1)
2003 – Iris Royal (7/1)
2002 – Fondmort (5/1)
2001 – Abandoned
2000 – Go Roger Go (7/1)

 

Racing Post Gold Cup Betting Trends

19/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
15/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/19 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
14/19 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
13/19 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
13/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Officially rated 141 or higher
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
8/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/19 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
6/19 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/19 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
2/19 – Trained by David Pipe
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/19 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 10/1

 

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Cheltenham TV Trends (Sun 14th Nov 21)

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday (14th Nov) as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the final day of their three-day November Meeting.

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we're on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends and stats………..

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.45 – Jewson Click And Collect Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m3 1/2f ITV

17/19 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
17/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
16/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Aged 8 or younger
12/19 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/19  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
12/19 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/19 – Irish bred
10/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/19 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/19 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/19  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Sandown (2) last time out
7/19 – French bred
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5 years)
3/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 10 years)
Ramses De Teillee (11/2) won the race in 2020
West Approach (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018

 

2.20 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) (BGG Race) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Officially rated 150+
10/12 – Won on seasonal reappearance
10/12 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/12 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
9/12 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
9/12 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (2 winners, Put The Kettle On (2021), Sprinter Sacre 2015)
7/12 – Failed to win last time out
7/12 – Aged 7 or older
6/12 – Favourites that won
5/12 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
5/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – German bred
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Put The Kettle On won the race in 2020
Defi Du Seuil won the race in 2019
Sceau Royal won the race in 2018

 

2.55 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

17/19 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
17/19 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/19 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/19 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
10/19 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/19 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/19 – Won their previous race
7/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/19 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/19 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1
6 of the last 12 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

 

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/17 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
10/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
9/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Carried 11-7 in weight
6/17 – Aged 4 years-old
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by the Nicholls stable
For Pleasure (14/1) won the race in 2020

 

 

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Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends

Run over 2m 4 ½ furlongs the Paddy Power Gold Cup is the feature contest at the three-day Cheltenham Open Meeting, held each year in the middle of November (12th-14th Nov 2021).

The ‘Pond House’ Pipe stable are the leading yard with nine wins in the race, with Celestial Gold, Our Vic and Great Endeavour, who won the contest in 2011, their most-recent winners.

In 2017, the Paddy Power Gold Cup was won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Splash Of Ginge – a win that gave the yard their third success in the race since 2008 and their four overall.

12 months ago, in 2020,  we saw the Evan Williams-trained Coole Cody win the race and if lining up again in 2021 - he’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Bradbury Star, who won the race in 1993 and 1994.

We take a look at the 2021 Paddy Power Gold Cup renewal from a stats angle – this year run on Saturday 13th November.

 

Recent Paddy Power Gold Cup Winners

2020 - Coole Cody (10/1)
2019 - Happy Diva (14/1)
2018 - Baron Alco (8/1)
2017 - Splash Of Ginge (25/1)
2016 - Taquin Du Seuill (8/1)
2015 – Annacotty (12/1)
2014 – Caid Du Berlais (10/1)
2013 – Johns Spirit (7/1)
2012 – Al Ferof (8/1)
2011 – Great Endeavour (8/1)
2010 – Little Josh (20/1)
2009 – Tranquil Sea (11/2 fav)
2008 – Imperial Commander (13/2)
2007 – L’Antartique (13/2)
2006 – Exotic Dancer (16/1)
2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav)
2004 – Celestial Gold (12/1)
2003 – Fondmort (3/1 fav)
2002 – Cyfor Malta (16/1)

Paddy Power Gold Cup Betting Trends

19/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
18/19 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
18/19 – Won by a UK-based trainer
15/19 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Carried 11st or less
13/19 – Had won at Cheltenham before
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/19 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
9/19 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/19 – Aged 7 years-old
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/19 – Won their last race
5/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/19 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/19 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 41 runners
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10.5/1

What are the main Paddy Power Gold Cup trends to looks for?

Track Experience - Having previous experience – including winning form at the Cheltenham track, is a big plus. This is supported with ALL of the last 19 winners having run at Prestbury Park in the past, while 13 of those 19 (68%) had won a race at the track before too. Last year’s winner – Coole Cody – had run a solid second at the track the previous month and was a past winner over hurdles at the course too. He also went onto finish a fine fourth in the Paddy Power Plate at the Cheltenham Festival last March, so this race is certainly worth looking back on as the season moves on.

UK-Based Stables Have The Edge – Okay, it’s a race that not many Irish runners have contested in recent years - last year we didn’t have any travellers from the Emerald Isle. Therefore, this might not hold a lot of weight once the final decs come out, but it’s still something to consider – a massive 18 of the last 19 winners came from UK-based stables. The last Irish-trained winner was Tranquil Sea (2009) and that the only successful horse from Ireland in the last 30 runnings. As mentioned, the Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Paul Nicholls stables have by far the best recent records – with 16 of the last 25 winners between them.

Age - Next up is to look at the age as there is a decent pattern building up here. Yes, three of the last five winners were aged 9 years-old, so we certainly can’t rule out this age group. That said, the better overall record has been with horses aged 8 or younger – a massive 15 of the last 19 winners (79%) ticked this age stat! While if you want to take this trend a bit further it could pay to note that 6 or 7 year-olds have won 12 of the last 19 runnings (63%).

The final thing to note with the age is to look at the other end of the age scale - The last double-figure aged winner was in 1975!

Current Form Recent runs are certainly worth looking at too. with 13 of the last 19 winners recorded a top four finish last time out. But those top four finishes have not always come in a recent race, as horses that are making their seasonal reappearances certainly can’t be ruled out - 8 of the last 19 winners took this first time out.

The lightly-raced, or less exposed runners, also have the better record, with 63% of the last 19 winners having only had 2 or 3 previous wins over fences – again backing up the younger, less exposed chasers, are the ones to focus on.

Weight Carried - With the race being a handicap then weight carried is always worth considering. Of the last 19 renewals, 14 winners (74%) carried 11st or less and this was backed-up again in the last four years with the winners having 10st 5lbs, 10st 6lbs, 10st 11lbs and 11st on their backs.

Betting - The final trend to note is the betting market. It’s generally a race that punters are not too far off the mark in. Therefore, any support for runners in the build-up should be respected and there is also an ante-post market to keep an eye on in the weeks before the race.

Last year’s winner returned at 10/1 and was the fifth shortest-priced horse in the race. 15 of the last 19 winners won at 14/1 or shorter in the betting, while even though the favourites have won just three of the last 19 (16%) we have seen 47% of the last 19 market leaders placed. With the winners tending to be priced 14/1 or shorter, then it’s still the horses in the first four or five in the market that command the most interest.

Things will start to ramp-up several notches in the ante-post market a few weeks before this race and it’s often a contest that we see horses from previous renewals running in again. For example, the 2019 winner - Happy Diva Like last year’s winner – Coole Cody - has run in the last three renewals.

In summary, horses aged 8 or younger, that have had previous track experience and are carrying 11st or less are certainly worthy of second glances. If any of those have run at the track before, finished in the top four last time out and also trained by Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Twiston-Davies yard then you’d be foolish not to stand up and take note.

 

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Sat TV Trends: 23rd Oct 2021

Loads going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.

Yes, jump racing is back at the home of National Hunt - Cheltenham - with a cracking card or which five races at LIVE on ITV4. Then at Newbury, we’ve two decent Group Three contests to look forward too, while the LIVE ITV action concludes with three races from Doncaster that are spearheaded by the Group One Vertum Futurity Trophy Stakes - a prize that top Irish handler - Aidan O’Brien - has won a massive nine times!

 

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

3.15 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

17/19 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
16/19 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/19 – Placed favourites
16/19 - Foaled in February or later
15/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/19 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/19 – Winning favourites
12/19 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/19 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
11/19 – Won their last race
10/19 – Had won over a mile in the past
8/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/19 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 8)
4/19 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/19 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 19 runnings is 13/2

 

3.50 – Virgin Bet Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

13/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
12/13 – Foaled in February or later
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
10/13 – Won last time out
10/13 – Carried 9-1 in weight
10/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
9/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/13 – March-born foals
6/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/13 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
2020 winner: Lipizzaner (10/3)

4.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

16/16 – Ran 5 or more times that season
15/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 - Carried 8-10 or less
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
5/16 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
2/16 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 7)
1/16 – Winning mare/filly
Venturous (6/1) won the race in 2020
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 


2.00 – Virgin Bet Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

16/17 – Foaled in Feb or later
14/17 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
12/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
11/17 – Never raced at Newbury
10/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Favourites unplaced
9/17 – Won over 7f before
8/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Foaled in February
7/17 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
1/17 – Winning favourites

 

2.35 – Virgin Bet St Simon Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV4

17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had won at least twice before
15/18 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Rated 107 or higher
10/18 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
11/18 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/18 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/18 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/18 – Won by a filly or mare
6/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
Euchen Glen (9/2) won the race in 2020
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.45 - NHS Vaccinating Heroes Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Challenger 2m Hdl Series Qualifier) Cl3 (3 yo+ 0-140) 2m 1/2f ITV4

7 previous runnings
6/7 - Aged 6 or younger
5/7 - Returned 8/1 or shorter
5/7 - Ran in the last 8 weeks
5/7 - Won no more than twice over hurdles
5/7 - Carried 10-11 or more in weight
4/7 - Irish bred
3/7 - Had run at the track before
2/7 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/7 - Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/7 - Won last time out

 

2.20 – 888Sport What’s Your Thinking Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV4

13/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
13/14 – Won over at least 3m previously
11/14 – First run of the season
11/14 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
10/14 – Rated 134 or higher
9/14 – Irish bred winners
9/14 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/14 – Favourites unplaced
8/14 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
7/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/14 – Unplaced in their last race
5/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/14 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/14 – Winning Favourites
Frodon (9/2) won the race in 2020
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race in 2020

 

2.55 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

9/12 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
8/12 - Had won 2 or less times over hurdles
6/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Carried 10-12 in weight
7/12 – Placed in their last race
5/12 – Irish bred winners
4/12 – Favourites placed
3/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Botox Has (11/2) won the race in 2020

3.30 - 888Sport Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
6/6 - Aged between 6 or 8 years-old (three each)
6/6 - Last race 6 months or more ago
6/6 - Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
6/6 - Had run at the track before
5/6 - Carried 11-1 or more
5/6 - Favourites placed (top three)
5/6 - Won between 2-4 times over fences
4/6 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/6 - Rated between 140-147
4/6 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
3/6 - French bred
2/6 - Winning favourites
2/6 - Won last time out
2/6 - Trained by Harry Whittington

 

4.05 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV4

9/12 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/12 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Irish Bred
2/12 – Mare winners
2/12 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/12 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Winning favourites
Honest Vic (12/1) won the race in 2020

 

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Cheltenham TV Trends: Friday 11th December 2020

The tapes go up for the opening day of the 2020 Cheltenham December Meeting this Friday (11th December) with FIVE LIVE ITV races from Prestbury Park, including the Peterborough Chase that has been moved to Cheltenham after being called off last Sunday at Huntingdon.

Here at GeeGeez we are on hand with our quick-fire trends ahead of the LIVE races......

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV4)

 

1:15 – CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Mares’ Handicap Chase Cl3 2m5f ITV4

Four previous runs
3 of the last 4 winners carried 11-3 or more in weight
All 4 past winners aged between 6-8 years-old
Zara Hope (5/2) won the race in 2019
Synopsis (13/2) won the race in 2018

 

1.50 – Fitzdares Club Loves The Peterborough Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

16/18 – Had won a race at Grade 2 or higher before
16/18 – Came from the first three in the betting
16/18 – Had won (fences) over at least 2m4f before
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Officially rated 155 or higher
14/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/18 – Placed fifth or better last time out
14/18 – Either Irish (7) or French (6) bred
13/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Had between 1-2 previous runs already that season
9/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/18 – Former Grade 1 chase winners
8/18 – Went onto finish 7th or better (no winners) in that season’s Ryanair Chase
7/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Ran at Aintree in the Old Roan Chase last time out
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/18 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2002 Best Mate, Gold Cup)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/3

 

 

2.25 – Unibet Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
15/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (6 won)
13/18 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
12/18 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
10/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (none won)
10/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/18 – Placed favourites
9/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of last 4 runnings)
Cogry (9/1) won the race in 2018 and 2019
Robinsfirth (7/4) won the race in 2017

 

 

3.00 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV4

15/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had run over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
14/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 won)
13/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
10/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/16 – Aged 9 or older
9/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Aged in double-figures
7/16 – Had won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
7/16 – Trained by Enda Bolger
6/16 – French bred
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Carried 11-12
Easysland (5/2) won this race in 2019
Fact Of The Matter (6/1) won the race in 2018
Josie’s Orders won the race in 2015
 

3.35 – Citipost Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV4

14/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
13/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Carried 11-2 or less
13/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Irish bred
12/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 - Priced 15/2 or bigger in the betting
10/17 – Rated between 128 and 137
8/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/17 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (one winner)
7/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
6/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 - Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
Goodbye Dancer (13/2) won the race in 2019
Aaron Lad (15/2) won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 24th Oct 2020

Bundles going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham – As always we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle…….Can leading Irish handler Aidan O’Brien land his tenth Vertum Futurity Trophy?

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and highlight the best profiles of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

2.55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

 

16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/18 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 - Foaled in February or later
15/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
10/18 – Had won over a mile in the past
7/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 7)
4/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 


3.35 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

 

4.10 – Teddington RBL Poppy Appeal Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

 

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

8/11 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/11 – Placed in their last race
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Quel Destin (1st 7/2) won the race in 2019
 

2.40 – Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had run over hurdles at Cheltenham in the past (3 won)
7/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

 

3.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/11 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/11 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Irish Bred
2/11 – Mare winners
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Winning favourites
Tobefair (8/1) won this race in 2019



3.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/13 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/13 – First run of the season
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/13 – Rated 134 or higher
9/13 – Irish bred winners
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Unplaced in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/13 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning Favourites
The Conditional (14/1) won the race in 2019
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 

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