Saturday TV Trends: 28th Jan 2023
Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with ‘Trials Day’ at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase – plus last week’s cancelled Ascot Clarence House Chase has also been slotted into the bumper 9-race card.
The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive Sky Bet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last 6 seasons.
As always, here at GeeGeez, we've got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.
Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
11.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
10/18 – French bred (including 8 of last 9 winners)
10/18 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/18 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil 2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/18 – Trained by Alan King
4/18 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/18 – Won by a German bred horse
3/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
3 of the last 5 winners have been owned by JP McManus
2022 Winner: PIED PIPER (G Elliott) 11/8
12.10 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV
18/18 – Aged 8 or younger
17/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase)
16/18 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
13/18 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
14/18 – Rated 128 or higher
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/18 – Irish bred
10/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/18 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/18 – French bred
3/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4/18 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/18 – Trained by Tizzard yard
1/18 – Winning favourites (none in the last 12 runnings)
2022 Winner: IMPERIAL ALCAZAR (Fergal O’Brien) 9/1
12:40 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 3m6f ITV
18/18 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/18 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/18 – Unplaced in their last race
13/18 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
13/18 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
13/18 – Had a recent run that season
12/18 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (8 won)
12/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/18 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/18 – Trained by Enda Bolger
7/18 – Favourites that won
2022 Winner: BACK ON THE LASH (Martin Keighley) 4/1 fav
1.20 – Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV
19/19 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
19/19 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
18/19 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
18/19 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
17/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
17/19 – Favourites placed
16/19 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/19 – Won their last race
13/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
13/19 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
12/19 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
11/19 – Favourites that won
11/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/19 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/19 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/19 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, 2013 -Sprinter Sacre, 2014 - Sire de Grugy, 2015 - Dodging Bullets)
4/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 6 times in all)
4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/19 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 7)
2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (30 runnings) there have been 13 winners aged 8 years-old
Note: Normally staged at Ascot
2022 Winner: SHISHKIN (Nicky Henderson) 5/6 fav
1.50 – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV
16/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
16/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/18 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
14/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
15/18 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/18 – Aged 8 or older
13/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
11/18 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Carried 10-7 or less
6/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Won by the Hobbs yard
2/18 - Won the by the Venetia Williams yard (2 of the last 9)
2/18 - Won the by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (2 of the last 5)
2022 Winner: TORN AND FRAYED (N Twiston-Davies) 5/1 jfav
2.25 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV
19/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
18/19 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (10 had won)
17/19 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
17/19 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
15/19 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
14/19 – Priced 7/1 or less
14/19 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
13/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
12/19 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (5) last time
10/19 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
9/19 – Unplaced last time out
9/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/19 - Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 3)
2/19 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
2/19 - Won by the Tizzard yard
1/19 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/19 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
2/19 – Favourites
Frodon won the race in 2019
10 of the last 15 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 7/1
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Note: The 2021 running was staged at Sandown
2022 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (N Henderson) 5/6 fav
3.00 – Dahlbury Stallions At Chapel Stud Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
14/17 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
14/17 – Officially rated 154 or higher
12/17 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/17 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/17 – Won their latest race
8/17 – Favourites that won
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Paisley Park has won the last 3 runnings
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
2022 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 5/1
3.35 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV
16/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/16 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
13/16 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
13/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
13/16 – Won their latest race
12/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
8/16 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/16 – Favourites that won
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4/16 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/16 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
2022 Winner: NORTH LODGE (A King) 7/1
4.10 – SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Soft 2m1f RacingTV
17/17 – Rated 120 or higher
15/17 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
15/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
13/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/17 – French bred
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/17 – Trained by Chris Gordon
2/17 – Trained by Martin Keighley
10 of the last 11 winners aged 7 or younger
11 of the last 13 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight
2022 Winner: CORMIER (B Ellison) 9/2 jfav
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2.05 – Sky Bet Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV
12/13 – Had won over this trip before
12/13 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Aged 8 or younger
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 - Winning favourites
6/13 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
2/13 – Trained by Philip Kirby
2/13 – Ridden by Sean Quinlan
2022 Winner: MISS HERITAGE (L Wadham) 10/1
2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV
12/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
11/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/13 – Winning favourite
3/13 - Trained By Ben Pauling (3 of the last 7)
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 - Ridden by Nico de Boinville
2/13 - Ridden by Daryl Jacob
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
2022 Winner: MAHLER MISSION (J McConnell) 11/2
3.15 – Sky Bet Handicap Chase (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV
16/17 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
14/17 – Carried 11-2 or less
14/17 – Officially rated 130 or higher
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/17 – Aged 9 or younger
11/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
11/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 17 winners of this race went onto contest the JLT Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
6 of the last 17 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)
2022 Winner: WINSDOR AVENUE (B Ellison) 40/1
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