Tag Archive for: Clock Watcher

Clock Watcher: Royal Ascot 2022

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There have been many 'horses to follow' lists manifesting from Royal Ascot 2022, aggregated via a typically eclectic array of approaches to the handicapping puzzle. Given the level of quality on display last week, it is more than reasonable to expect a glut of subsequent scorers emerging from those 28 races. Winners, alas, do not necessarily equate to profit, so our job - and the task attempted hereafter herein - is to try to find a few that might reward at a price in their upcoming starts.

With that in mind, those in DARK BLUE BOLD CAPITALS  constitute potential value plays in the not too distant - perhaps their next two or three starts. Naturally, that will depend on the race conditions and opposition so discretion aforethought.

I'm using a combination of sectional timing data (mainly) and negative draw bias (occasionally) to curate my 'to follow' list...

Tuesday

Maljoom / Berkshire Shadow / Bayside Boy

The St James's Palace Stakes was a race that played out late, all of the first eight runners home finishing fast. While Coroebus clung to the verdict, few judges would consider him a certainty to replicate that next time against supporting members of this cast. The most notable was Maljoom who, once granted running room, was tearing up the unassailable deficit; in another two strides, the German 2000 Guineas winner would have added Ascot gold. He's clearly of interest next time though his odds are expected to be suffocated by the memory of this luckless effort.

 

St James's Palace Stakes 2022 Sectional Timing chart

 

A couple who might sail under the radar in spite of being only a length and a bit behind the podium finishers are BERKSHIRE SHADOW and Bayside Boy. The former gained a sectional upgrade close to Maljoom's in spite of Maljoom's electric last eighth of a mile: our mile upgrades are based on the final two furlongs. The latter got no run in the straight until the birds had flown and, once a seam appeared, he rattled through it covering the final furlong in 11.82 seconds (vs Maljoom's 11.47).

Okita Soushi / Raymond Tusk

Eighteen runners over 14 furlongs was the tale of the Copper Horse Stakes, a handicap, tape. The race itself was marked by various troubled trip stories including, to a small degree, the winner, Get Shirty, whose passage was blocked before he saw daylight. Likewise Cleveland, in second, did not enjoy a hassle-free transit; but the one who was most interfered with was surely third-placed OKITA SOUSHI, who was eleven lengths behind the leader with half a mile to go. He made up a remarkable seven lengths in the next quarter mile and was still closing in the final quarter but wound up two lengths shy of Shirty. The Irish 'capper has him up two to 106 but that may not stop this progressive chap - he still only has four runs in the book.

His 14 point upgrade was the joint biggest in the race, shared with the very likeable Raymond Tusk. Martin Harley had this one chilly out back - a length behind even Okita Soushi - and, while Okita was making up seven in the penultimate quarter, Raymond closed eight lengths of his margin before flattening out a touch in the last two furlongs. It was a big effort from a horse who handles these massive field charges better than most: he could pop up at a handsome dividend before long.

Wednesday

Dubai Love

Not much to report in terms of this post's sponsored angles for Wednesday, but Dubai Love probably ran better than the record shows when 7th of 20 in the Kensington Palace Stakes handicap. That round track monster field mile race invited some horses to make a much broader arc through the bend than others, and Saeed bin Suroor's mare began from the proverbial car park in 23 (20 once the non-runners were removed), the widest stall of all. All things considered, she fared well: covering a lot more ground early and fading a touch late. She's probably handicapped to win, helped by a drop of 2lb for this good effort.

Thursday

Deauville Legend / Savvy Knight / Flying Dolphin / Balhambar

The King George V Stakes, a 3yo mile and a half handicap, was one of those with the historic - and quirky - high draw bias. As it turned out, the first two home, and six of the first seven, all exited single figure stalls. Obviously, horses can win from any gate, but such a low stall peppering of the target has been rare in big Ascot fields over twelve furlongs, as the following image (data since 2009) succinctly articulates.

 

The winner, Secret State, had a prominent sit throughout and got the all-important split when he needed it. Even so, he was on fumes at the last to repel Deauville Legend, whose failure to secure an opportune opening confined him to gallant defeat. The Legend's misfortune will have been lost on few - the official rater included, he's up 6lb - meaning his next day price will comfortably, perhaps overly, accommodate that fact.

In fourth was Savvy Knight, who found four lengths in the final three furlongs but needed to find five and a half. He had a charmed inside run but just couldn't reel in the leaders. A 2lb rise is probably fair but doesn't especially help his next day prospects. FLYING DOLPHIN also got two more but he still looks in front of his perch. Here, he was caught in early scrimmaging, the upshot of which was a position a dozen lengths off the leader at the halfway point. His 36.1 seconds final three furlongs was the second fastest in the race, after BALHAMBAR, a 40/1 chance for the Derby dream team of Sir Stoute and the Kingscote. He had a luckless transit and was never in contention, but his upgrade figure is the biggest in the field; down one to 84 helps for this four-time racer presumably not named after a drinking establishment near Clapham.

Kyprios / Mojo Star / Stradivarius

I wanted to mention the Gold Cup, not because I feel there are any dark horses in its midst but because the sectional 'by furlong' chart is quite interesting. Kyprios, the winner, benefited most from track position - being nearest to the lollipop when the sprint began. The race sectionals above the chart show how fast the leaders ran in the final three-quarters of a mile and, especially, in the final three furlongs. What they don't show are the preposterously fast final furlong fractions which, despite this being the second longest race of the week, included two of the quickest ten at the meeting (see this excellent debrief by Simon Rowlands for the full rundown).

Ascot Gold Cup 2022 Sectional Timing

 

At the three furlong marker, Kyprios (white sleeves, red cap) was 3½ lengths behind the leader and with a wide but clear path to the finish. Meanwhile, Mojo Star (purple and white quartered cap) was a length further back and with similar clear but outside sailing lane. Poor old Frankie, aboard Stradivarius (black jacket, yellow cap), was behind the eight ball - or the ten horse, Princess Zoe, more correctly - and, by the time he'd indicated (mirror, signal, manoeuvre) and turned left into the nine - yes, nine - path, the game was up.

 

 

Dettori must still be trying to scrub off the tyre treads from having been relentlessly and mercilessly hurled under the bus by his 'pal', John Gosden, whose usual grace was missing, presumed dead, by the time of the third airing of the "it's all Frankie's fault" soliloquy.

The reality is that, yes, Ryan Moore, aboard the winner, did him up like the proverbial smoked and salted fish when the Italian needed a run: nothing untoward, just top notch race riding, the kind of thing the King of Ascot will have meted out a hundred times down the years. It wasn't a vintage ride astride the Strad, for sure, but how often do you see a nine horse race over two and a half miles fan out nine wide with 300 yards to go? This wasn't bad luck, it was filthy rotten 'orrible luck.

Helicoptering up from the specifics in closing, Kyprios will probably improve again, as will Mojo Star, both stepping up from 1m6f to this marathon. They are the future of the Cup squad.

Saga

It never rains but it pours and Saga, ridden by Frankie, passed all bar the winner, Thesis, in the next race, the Britannia Stakes handicap. The running lines in the bottom left of each position row - bold figure for race position, superscript for distance behind the leader (or in front, if race leader) - for the first three home are instructive:

 

 

The fact that Jimi Hendrix led the 30-runner field into the final furlong, and was able to battle on for third, reveals plenty about the even-ish tempo of the race, at least to around the furlong pole. While Jimi was an Ezy Rider for Rob Hornby, Messrs. Moore and Dettori were again taking the scenic route to protagonism: with half of the mile race elapsed, Moore and Thesis were 4½ lengths adrift of Jimi H, while Frankie's journey was more odyssey than Saga as he meandered his way to the half-time oranges in last - of 30! - place. He was still tail end Carlo with two furlongs to go, albeit 'only' 2¾ lengths off trailblazing Hendrix.

Saga's official margin of defeat was a head. The times in the right hand colour lozenges show that Saga covered the final quarter mile in 23.51 seconds, almost three-tenths quicker than Thesis, and just about a full second faster than Jimi Hendrix. Thank God it wasn't Jamie Spencer is all I can say. The first two home are evidently talented, especially the runner-up; there was no argument on that score from the handicapper who has elevated Thesis to 99 (+9) and Saga to 105 (+8).

Cresta

I have to admit to not being much of a fan of the Hampton Court Stakes. Its interim distance is less of a problem than its typically middling alumni: these are horses who'd probably not win the three-year-old handicaps and would definitely not shake up the pecking order in the proper Group races. This year the ground was similarly fast all week. Against that relatively fixed slide rule, Claymore won the Group 3 Hampton Court in 2:07:45. Two days later, Missed The Cut lugged a pound more to a clear-cut Golden Gates handicap verdict in 2:06:00.

Of course, the races were run in different fashions: the G3 was steady with a rapid final stanza while the handicap was 3.5 seconds quicker in the opening three furlongs and 2.4 seconds slower in the closing three furlongs. That conservation of energy until the grandstands engaged full voice enabled Claymore to repel, oh no, Frankie once more, this time aboard HM The Queen's Reach For The Moon, the red hot 2/5 favourite.

Further back, and with no chance given the race tempo, was Cresta whose final two furlongs were blitzed in 23.43 seconds: not so much too little too late as a lot waaaaay too late. But I'm not sure I like the form here at all.

Friday

One of the performances of the week was that produced by Candleford, absent 219 days theretofore, in utterly walloping 17 rivals in the mile and a half Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. This time the quirky draw bias was in full effect, the facile winner exiting trap 18 and taking the tourists' route in the straight. He even had time to sign a couple of autographs on the run to the line... no, sorry, it wasn't quite that easy. But nearly...

The first six home were drawn 18-10-16-4-15-17 and the horse drawn 4 that finished in position four, was Brilliant Light. Another bin Suroor inmate - the Godolphin Reserves handler had a crackerjack week with plenty of shots on target and one twenty yard screamer (20/1 winner) - Brilliant Light endured the in-running comment "bit short of room" twice in the Racing Post man's (or woman's) post-race observations. Riding for luck often doesn't find luck, and here was a case in point. Unchanged by the official scorer on 96, he might be back on top before long.

If Thursday was Purgatory for Lanfranco, Friday brought a heavenly slice of redemption in the Coronation Stakes aboard the clearly tip-top talent, Inspiral. Unbeaten in four as a two-year-old including when authoritatively claiming the Group 1 Fillies' Mile, she was even more imperious here in a rout of what had looked pre-race to be a very credible collective of sophomores. Trainer John Gosden had decided to skip both the 1000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent in order to give Inspiral the time she needed to come to hand; on this evidence she could have taken in both, at 75% and 85% readiness, and copped the lot.

Although she has yet to face Homeless Songs, herself a daylight winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas, Inspiral appears to have the world at her feet. While the three-year-old miler colts are still arguing about who's best boy, there is only that one pretender to Inspiral's filly crown. A match with the Irish Guineas winner, or perhaps even with Baaeed in receipt of age and sex allowances, as well as any number of Coroebus's posse, would be very tasty indeed!

Saturday

And so to Saturday and a one of the strangest results I've ever seen. The Chesham Stakes, a seven furlong juvenile race, featured a strong-looking line up headed by the Ballydoyle blueblood, Alfred Munnings. As they passed the post, heads were scratched, chins were stroked, teeth were gnashed and placepot tickets were binned: HOLLOWAY BOY, 40/1 and making his career bow, won convincingly from 80/1 Pearling Path with 33/1 Lakota Sioux - swishing her tail like a windmill throughout - back in third. There was not much obvious fluke about it either.

 

 

Karl Burke is having a fantastic season and must be one of the best trainers of two-year-olds in the land; it wasn't a complete shock to him that Holloway Boy, who had shown a reasonable amount at home, won. It was a complete shock to most of the rest of us.

But, again, look at that top right orange rectangle: HB, under Danny Tudhope - most people's man of the match (perhaps bar Ryan Moore) last week, was much the fastest at the finish and was going away after the line. I'd expect the phone will have been warm enough in the few days since because this lad - by Ulysses out of a Pivotal mare - has a pretty sexy pedigree to go with his eye-opening debut. He already stays a mile on this evidence and is bred for at least ten and to be a three-year-old. Holloway Boy got a six point sectional upgrade for this effort and it will be fascinating to see where next for Burke's exciting rookie. In spite of this impressive score, there is a chance he's over-priced next time due to his Chesham starting price; that might make it worth buying a ticket to see if he can back up the Ascot stunner.

The Jersey Stakes was next and, over the same course and distance of the Chesham, the three-year-olds took to the stage. Or at least to stage left. The first six home, of 15, were drawn 14-12-2-13-11-15 and all raced near side - the left as you look from the starting stalls to the finish. But five of those six, from their double digit draws, had only to roll forwards while trap 2, DUBAI POET, made a mid-race move from the right flank (centre of the track) towards the left. The first half dozen were better than two lengths clear of the best of the other nine.

Dubai Poet was beaten a length and a neck but must have forfeited three to four lengths in traversing the field: up five to 109 is unhelpful but fully deserved.

A little later on the final day, Clock Watcher pin up boy, Rohaan, was back to defend his Wokingham Stakes crown. He'd been somewhat out of form this season, having scored at huge prices on multiple occasions last term after this column had advertised his ability 17 months ago. Naturally, being the exquisite judge I am, I'd removed David Evans' pride and joy on the very morning of the Wokingham, determining that I'd had my fun with him. That was as maybe, but Rohaan sure had not finished having fun with me!

With Ryan Moore in the cockpit, Rohaan was slowly away, as is his wont, before zigzagging through from the back in a 23.61 seconds last quarter mile. This cute little chart shows that Rohaan (grey line) still had three lengths to find entering the final eighth. Find it he did, at the main expense of Popmaster (turquoise line), who led at the furlong but was three-parts behind where it mattered.

 

That was orange blob and four point upgrade territory for the winner, on top of a very good speed figure: Rohaan is back!

Later on, in the Golden Gates handicap, Andrew Balding's GROUNDBREAKER had a terrible run from a terrible draw and still managed to finish fourth. The first seven home were berthed in 13-19-15-3-16-12-14. It's a stretch to suggest he'd have beaten Missed The Cut with a better rub of the green, but he'd probably have finished second; the lad in that spot got three more from the handicapper while Groundbreaker stays on his mark of 90.

And still there was time for one more takeaway in the concluding Queen Alexandra Stakes, over two miles and six furlongs. Stratum, a win or bust player if ever there was, has form in the past two seasons of 15174131601 taking in flat races, hurdles and chases during the sequence. What a guy! Like his owner, Brighton & Hove Albion and Starlizard head honcho Tony Bloom, he has his own rulebook and oftentimes his rivals are unwittingly competing on his terms. This was such an occasion.

Bimbling along towards the back of the pack until the three-furlong peg, Stratum was then invited to engage his longest stride. He responded with relish, gusto and zeal, not to mention fervour, moving from a six-length tenth of 12 to a one length first and earning a tenuous upgrade of seven in the process. I say 'tenuous' because the sample size of 2m6f flat races at Ascot is three, and that is not enough on which to build even the most flimsy of time-based cases.

What is clear is that that upgrade was earned off the back of a predictably steady-early-quicker-late pace setup, which meant most of Stratum's rivals also attained a bolt-on bonus from our sectional algo. The only horse to match Stratum with a seven, and probably the most interesting one to take from this cohort, was Timour. This four-year-old's international superstar connections - French maestro, Andre Fabre, and Kiwi red baron, James McDonald - were thwarted by an unusual misjudgement from the latter: he was simply too far out of his ground.

The ultra-marathon here was a huge increase in trip for the French raider, a son of Gleneagles, and it could not be said he failed to stay. He may now be tried in France's Cup races, the Prix du Cadran and Prix Royal-Oak, though whether he's quite up to that level remains to be seen.

 

My Seven to Follow:

- Berkshire Shadow

- Okita Soushi

- Flying Dolphin

- Balhambar

- Holloway Boy

- Dubai Poet

- Groundbreaker

 

Good luck

Matt

Clock Watcher: January 2022

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It's been a while, but Clock Watcher is back. A (very occasional) series, Clock Watcher aims to highlight a few horses that, according to the sectional data published on this site, produced noteworthy performances and may be underrated - for the time being - going forwards.

Exactly a year ago, I published this Clock Watcher six to follow article and, as generally befalls such things, it was a mixed bag of results. The two Charlie Appleby runners have never run in Britain since, both now in Dubai for other trainers: Folk Magic is unraced since his eye-catching run, while Castlebar was whacked on his Sharjah reappearance after most of a year off before running a much more promising second at Jebel Ali over an inadequate nine furlongs. He ought to win soon when upped in trip.

Poor Fort McHenry promised a fair bit while getting handicapped, but was sadly fatally injured on his handicap debut.

If those were the sick notes, these were the clunkers. Systemic fooled me with a facile score at Newcastle a year ago, and then went nine races without even making the frame! He went up 13lb for that victory and, it could reasonably be argued, didn't have his set up (12f Newcastle, even paced first mile) thereafter; but excuses are easy to make. He wasn't beaten far on a number of occasions and his new trainer, Gary Moore, could well find opportunities on the all-weather if his current hurdling job fails to take root.

Idilico, like Systemic, has run nine times since. Unlike Systemic, he managed to win once - at 25/1! - and place twice more. It was surely no coincidence that all three win/placed efforts came in double digit fields with a little pace to aim at: Idilico does everything late in his races. Switched to Dianne Sayer (from Ian Williams) and reverted to hurdles, he's shown nothing in his last two races, but Dianne is a very shrewd operator and I expect Idilico will be winning over a trip around Ayr or the like this flat turf season. Big field and a bit of pace a must.

And that leaves the undoubted pinup star of, in truth, a fairly ragtag bunch, Rohaan, who proved that if you throw enough mud at the wall some of it will stick! Rohaan had already rattled off a hat-trick by the time he featured in this post a year ago. That didn't stop him snaffling four more scores since. And not just any old triumphs, either: after a Class 3 6f win at Lingers in March (6/1), he prevailed in Group 3 company at Ascot (22/1), Group 2 company at Haydock (33/1) and in the Wokingham (8/1). Whoosh!

That meant the bottom line was 30 runs, five wins, and a profit at SP of 69 points. Very healthy in literal terms but, let's be honest, I was lucky rather than good.

And so here we are again... in what follows, I've mostly concentrated on late season juveniles (now three-year-olds) or lightly raced types, in hope of avoiding a pitfall I've personally succumbed to a number of times: backing an exposed horse who produces one fine sectional effort before returning to its previous level of relative humdrum. Let's look at the new list...

Three-year-olds

Atrium

Trained by Charlie Fellowes for Highclere Thoroughbreds, this chap won two of five as a juvenile, most recently when catching my eye over the straight seven at Newcastle. There, off a mark of 80, he was given a solo on the far side of the field, sweeping through with a sustained acceleration before fading a touch in the last furlong. It was Atrium's second win over a straight 7f from four such attempts; of the other two, one was a fine third on debut and the other was when beaten behind subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Modern Games in a well above par handicap.

The 4th and 5th from the featured Newcastle race have won since (only two to have run), and this now three-year-old son of Holy Roman Emperor can go in again off his revised peg of 85 when granted an even early tempo on a straight track.

Security Code

Flagging Johnny (and Thady, let us not forget Thady) G juvenile scorers is an almost certain means of finding both a future winner and a mid-term loss to SP, so a value judgement will be required the next day(s). If that's the 'buyer beware' out of the way, here's the sales pitch: Security Code was a debut winner for the Gosdens and, as Jon Shenton noted here, that's not as frequent an occurrence as many would believe. Sure, a 16.5% hit rate on juvenile bow (last five years) is pretty strong but it's far less enticing than the yard's near 24% second start rate.

Anyway, Security Code managed to win that first day, in late November at Wolverhampton over the extended mile. What was notable about his win was that he was almost five lengths off the lead with a quarter mile to go against an even to slow early pace (note the first three green/turquoise blocks) and yet, by the finish, he'd guzzled that deficit and put a further length-plus into Asean Legend, who held off the rest of the field, favoured as he was by the run of things.

 

To make up six lengths in a quarter mile off a steady pace is a fine effort, still more so that it was on debut, and more so again given he ran green and lugged in behind the pace setter in the straight. For all that this was probably a weak contest, the winner looked good - it will be interesting to see where next for Security Code.

Franz Strauss

While we're on Gosden juvenile debut scorers, how about Franz Strauss? Relatively cheaply bought (the price of a Mildenhall maisonette as opposed to a Mayfair mansion) for Godolphin, this son of Golden Horn showed a pleasing gear change to overcome a slightly tardy start over a mile at Newcastle last month. Again, it was not a lightning tempo through the first half mile, but this well named beast (Strauss of course was a virtuoso hornist) showed a fine turn of foot.

Franz Strauss is a half-brother to 100-rated six furlong horse, Regional, and could be suited by a drop back to seven furlongs (for all that Golden Horn implies further, not shorter).

 

 

Eydon

Like the winner, who, as we've seen, can be expected to step forward from first to second start, third-placed Eydon should be upgraded on the bare form as he was stopped in his run at a crucial moment. The 'lengths behind' chart above shows that Eydon lost two lengths a couple of furlongs out when caught in a pocket; he then rattled home in an 11.45 second closing furlong to get within three-quarters of a length of the winner.

As can also be seen by the '1 1 1' notation in the 'R W P' (runs/wins/places) columns, the interloper between the nominated pair, Nolton Cross, has done his bit by winning since.

By an unfashionable staying sire in Olden Times, out of a Frankel mare who stayed middle distances, Eydon has a right to improve for more of a trip and could be the best by his ol' man since the John Dunlop stayers Times Up and Harlestone Times.

Tiber Flow

Trained by William Haggas, this speedster recorded a good time figure and a double digit upgrade when scoring on his debut (Newcastle, 6f). Slow away there, the son of Caravaggio travelled well and quickened smartly.

A month later (2nd January), he was sent off at 1/3 in a four horse affair, again at Newcastle but this time over seven-eighths. Given four lengths to make up off very slow opening and middle sections, Tiber Flow charged through the last quarter mile in 22.12 seconds (standard to slow), usurping the optimally-positioned Zameka in the last furlong.

The third, King Of York, franked the form when all but winning at Southwell on Sunday and Tiber Flow looks like he can win a nice race off an opening perch of 86.

 

Beaches

More speculatively, and thus more likely to be a price next time, Beaches ran an encouraging race on his mark-qualifying third start. Whacked when too much use was made from the front on his middle start of three, Beaches achieved big upgrade figures in the efforts before and since when more patiently ridden, especially last time (Wolves, 8.5f, held up off slow gallop, given no chance to win) behind the smart Godolphin gelding, Symbol Of Light.

An opening rating of 72 looks very fair and Beaches ought to be capable of a good bit more first time in a handicap on the, ahem, sand.

 

Older horses

Annaf

This ex-Shadwell Muhaarar colt was unraced when sold to Mick Appleby for 16,000 guineas at the Autumn horses in training sale, and likely had had some issues. But he was a very good winner on debut at Newcastle (6f novice, 6th January), making a smooth effort to two out and then responding when asked for more, going away from his field at the line.

The visual impression is supported by a page that suggests he'll get further and, if he stands training, he is of obvious interest next time.

Caramelised

Another speculative entry is this five race maiden on the flat who has won two of four over hurdles. His first four flat spins were for Richard Hannon at distances up to a mile and a quarter after which he was sent to Alan King for a hurdling career.

Having perhaps reached his level over timber for now he was switched back to the flat but probably found a medium gallop too steady over a mile and a half at Wolves. The winner there, Trevolli, is unbeaten in two more since, and the fifth has also won, from a total of six subsequent starts by this field. A step up in trip and a bit of pace to aim at should see Caramelised very competitive.

The chart for that race is shown below, with various elements highlighted by green boxes.

 

I hope at this stage you'll be able to infer the points of note for yourself. If you can, you're equipped to go sniffing for your own interesting sectional contenders; if not, maybe have another whizz through the words and pictures above. Either way, I hope there has been something of interest herein and, if we're lucky, a bit of profit from following the nominated horses under suitable conditions.

Side notes

Southwell: Caution advised

Southwell changed from its legacy fibresand surface to a next generation tapeta product in late summer/autumn, and fixtures since the all-weather track reopened on 7th December have been on the new carpet. At this stage, we have not revised our draw, pace or sectional par data to reflect this and, as I've mentioned a number of times already since, users need to be aware of that.

Specifically in relation to sectional timings, we're seeing a lot of artificially high upgrade figures due to the less galloping nature of the tapeta compared with its fibresand predecessor. Although those upgrade figures should not be taken literally, they should also not be discarded completely: a big upgrade still equates to a strong performance, we just ought not to try to peg 'how' strong a performance it was just yet.

I am minded to reset the pars from the start of the new era at Southwell but even that is not without challenges: the going is currently perma-standard to slow while the tapeta beds in. It's difficult to know how long that will take.

Management summary: take care at Southwell but do not discount a big upgrade out of hand.

Sectional Data on Geegeez: A line on the future

We've licensed and published sectional timing data on geegeez.co.uk since July 2019 and, including the associated development effort to bring those data to life, the project cost runs to many tens of thousands of pounds. It was always the case that at some point sectional data would need to be priced in its own right - see this article from November 2019 for an early reference to that - and that time is likely to arrive in the first half of this year.

Any fee will be as an optional 'bolt on' to the existing Gold subscription, and it is not expected to be prohibitive: the aim here is not profit (though, naturally, as a business there is no shame in that), but merely to break even on the ongoing costs. The sunk chunk is my problem.

I hope before that time to be able to publish the Racing TV UK tracks (except Chelmsford, who remain outside of any timing agreement), but that very much depends on the usual contract wrangling and negotiations between racing's many splinter groups. Fingers crossed.

Matt

Clock Watcher: Six to Follow

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It's been a while - three months, in fact - since the last Clock Watcher and, during that time, there have been some compelling performances on the proverbial stopwatch. In what follows, I've identified six horses that could be worth looking out for. Before that, though, some big sectional news.

Sectional Data Now Published for RTV Tracks

It's been a long time coming. Like, a really long time. And the journey has been a difficult one for the folks at Racecourse Media Group, the overlords of Racing TV, and their chosen sectional data supplier, CourseTrack.

But that's all history now as, since 2nd December last year, Racing TV (RTV) began displaying furlong split times for the race leader on its broadcast output. Moreover, they have been publishing similar splits - and finishing speed percentages - for all runners in all races at Kempton Park. The plan is to roll out a full service provision across RMG's 34 shareholder racecourses (which is to say all UK racecourses broadcast on Racing TV with the exception of privately owned Chelmsford City (more's the pity)).

As a website that publishes sectional data for Attheraces' partner racecourses, we very much welcome the progress that has been made by RMG so far, and we hope that in the not too distant future we'll be able to share a much fuller sectional perspective on the UK form book (cost considerations notwithstanding).

For now, if you're interested in Kempton's sectionals, you can find them on the results pages on Racing TV's website. You can also find at the bottom of this article a list of those that I felt finished notably well in their races according to the published finishing speed percentages.

Coming Soon: More Accessible Sectional Content on Geegeez

In the most recent 'what do you want' survey of Geegeez Gold subscribers, you told me that 'fast finishers' insight was your number one priority of the options listed. When you speak, we listen, and delivering that is our second priority as of now. [Our first priority is to deliver a better mobile device user experience].

The new output will include a daily 'fast finishers' report as well as icons to highlight performances of sectional merit within the racecards. There is not too much to add at this stage, but there will, naturally, be lots more on this in due course.

Six to Look Out For

Now, as promised, here are six horses that I feel (to varying degrees) might be worthy of note.

Rohaan

Three seven furlong runs in autumn maiden/novice company, the first two for George Scott and on deep turf, where Rohaan was beaten a collective 51.5 lengths, did not presage what was to follow. Bought at the autumn horses in training sale for 20,000 guineas and relocated to David Evans' yard, as well as dropped into considerably more feasible company, the now three-year-old Mayson gelding has been a revelation in all-weather handicaps.

Off an opening perch of just 55, Rohaan turned up at Newcastle for a six-furlong 0-60 nursery on the first day of December and, having been held up last, proceeded to run past his field to score by an easy length and a half at odds of 4/1 (40/1, 100/1 and 150/1 in his three preceding non-handicaps).

He had the favourite, who tried to make all, in second, with most of another four lengths back to the third. The wolf in sheep's clothing had been revealed!

In three subsequent races, he won over seven at Kempton with the six pound winner's penalty, then back over six at Lingfield off a revised mark of 73. His performance there was the one that advertised itself on my sectional scorecard. Waited with in a micro-field of four, he conceded first run to his trio of rivals before travelling all over them in the straight and sauntering clear to win by better than a length.

Thereafter, Rohaan's mark elevated to 85 off which he was the 11/8 favourite for another Class 4 handicap at Lingfield. Jockey Darragh Keenan allowed his inexperience to get him in trouble, however, as he waited... and waited... and waited before unleashing his mount too late. Second, finishing full of run. Rohaan was reported to have finished slightly lame after that, and his rider incurred the wrath of the stewards, receiving a 14-day ban (reduced to 10 days on appeal).

Having now won on a straight track, and going both right- and left-handed, Rohaan - who was put up five pounds to 90 for that silver medal - is not done winning yet. The 3yo conditions race on All Weather Finals Day looks well within his grasp if he overcomes that lameness in time.

Castlebar

A Godolphin-owned €460,000 yearling by Invincible Spirit out of a decent Pivotal mare, this chap was expected to be decent; but that's not how things panned out, initially at least. 13/2 for a warm September Sandown novice on debut, Castlebar fluffed his lines badly, a mis-step that cost him his colt status. A month later and at least a couple of pounds lighter he was again well enough beaten, this time in a more modest Wolverhampton novice.

But the penny was beginning to drop and another month on he ran a three-quarter length second having been much closer to the speed this time. Since that change of tactics, he has gone on to win his two most recent starts, first in a Newcastle novice and then in a Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton.

The chart below shows Castlebar (red) and the second horse, Wholelotafun (green), as well as the 'by furlong' par line (black) for races over this course and distance. As can be seen, the race was steadily run through the middle part - note the coloured runner lines some way below the black par line, and also the turquoise blob above the chart for furlongs 6-3 - but they came home rapidly with Castlebar rallying gamely to overcome the runner up who, including his jockey's claim, was receiving almost two stone.

He's been raised just two pounds, to 86, for that victory but the sectionals suggest the performance may have had a tad more merit.

 

Systemic

A third who started out as somewhat disappointing is Systemic. Indeed, after a mildly promising debut covering ten furlongs at Doncaster in late June, the Hugo Palmer-trained son of Toronado found himself degrees of outpaced over similar trips at Lingfield (twice), Chelmsford and Wolverhampton.

That quintet of unplaced efforts was enough to reduce an opening mark of 72 down to 65, off which he was stepped up in range to a mile and a half and invited to work with the stiffer, more galloping expanses of Gosforth Park, Newcastle.

In a race which was run fairly evenly through the opening and middle sections - note the green blobs above the chart - the winner quickened impressively having travelled all over his rivals earlier in the straight.

The running lines (66661) reveal that Systemic was still sixth, nearly three lengths behind the leader, at the two furlong pole before accelerating away to win by five. His final quarter mile was completed in 23.86 seconds, more than a second faster than any other horse in the race.

The problem is that such a romp will have been missed by nobody, least of all the official handicapper, who will publicly share his judgement tomorrow morning. Assuming the new mark is 75 or less, Hugo may be heading up the A1 once more for another tilt at a Newcastle pot.

[STOP PRESS: Systemic is up a whopping 13lb to 78!]

Folk Magic

Another Charlie Appleby-trained Godolphin horse is Folk Magic, by the legendary Dubawi out of a Marju mare (the blues don't do sub-par pedigrees!). Third as an 8/1 shot on his racecourse bow, he was sent off the 11/8 favourite second and most recent time around. Jockey William Buick didn't get the clearest of runs, messed about by an also ran and then a little short of room turning into the straight; but he wasn't much helped by Folk Magic either, whose head carriage was to one side.

The clock suggests a charitable interpretation should be taken, especially perhaps given that he's been tongue tied on both starts thus far. That might imply a breathing difficulty so a 'W1' notation any time soon would be a fillip to his subsequent chance.

Regardless of all that physiological conjecture, he did well on the sectionals here, completing the final three furlongs in 33.38 seconds, fastest of all.

He might prove to be a quirky rogue, but he has lots of ability and is entitled to step forward again off just two races to date.

Idilico

We now move deeper into speculative territory for the final two horses of note. First up is a six-year-old rated 60 on the flat. Ahem. Hardly an improving type, on the face of it at least.

The case for Philip Kirby's runner is that he's actually only had five spins on the flat in Britain, having been bought off the level in France to go hurdling in 2018 for Ian Williams. Prior to the hurdling project, Idilico had won one of four and was then second on his final French start, earning an RPR of 84.

A debut timber-topping winner for Williams he reached marks in the high 120's as a four-year-old hurdler before some time out - possibly injury-related - led to a reversion to sans obstacles from a handicap peg of 78. Three poor efforts later and that mark had sunk to 64. The combination of the plummeting mark, a break and a stable switch to Kirby was insufficient to elicit much of an improved showing over a mile and a half at Newcastle in late December but, three weeks later - last Friday - Idilico sparked back to life. Not that you'd have necessarily noticed.

Ridden cold as ice by jockey Phil Dennis, Idilico was still nine lengths off the leader at the half mile pole; by the jam stick he'd erased eight of those nine lengths deficit and passed nine of his twelve rivals - which is to say he finished a length behind the winner in fourth.

It seems probable that the 310 day layoff prior to a reversion to flat racing in September last year refer to a setback and it is further probable that Idilico is not the horse he was. But off a similar mark in a similar race with a slightly better judged ride, he could look very well handicapped.

[STOP PRESS: Idilico is up 1lb to 61]

Fort McHenry

I've included this chap as the wild card. There is a very good chance I am over-stating his ability but I think he might continue to be available at odds where little will need to be ventured for something to be gained.

Fort McHenry is a twice-raced now three-year-old trained by Julie Camacho. In his brace of efforts he has finished eighth (125/1) and then fifth (66/1), both up the straight seven furlongs at Newcastle.

Towards the back of the dozen runners on debut, his final quarter mile split was only three-hundredths of a second slower than the subsequent John Gosden winner, Emperor Spirit, and the same fraction quicker than the subsequent Hugo Palmer winner, Ahlawi. That was in large part due to the very slow early gallop, but Fort M still showed a fine turn of foot there.

On his sole start since, he ran an opposite race: close to the pace in a contest that was quite fast early and even middle to late. Either he didn't go on from that first effort (or it still left its mark four weeks later) or he was unsuited by this pace/run style combination. My guess is the latter. Fort McHenry is now two-thirds of the way to a handicap mark and, on stride data (more of that another day, I'm still very far from proficient - a further caveat!), he might want more like ten furlongs.

In a longer race they're more likely to go steady which should allow Fort McHenry to reprise his fast finishing effort from debut; assuming that wasn't a one-off. It will be very interesting to see a) over what trip he runs next and b) what the handicapper makes of his qualifying trio of races.

..

With a following wind and favourable race setups, there ought to be a winner or three in the above. Before closing, a reminder of those longlists to which I referred at the top of this piece. They are appended below.

Good luck,

Matt

Appendix 1: TPD Sectional 'Of Interest' list

Below is a list of horses that satisfied my query criteria, including those flagged above. It is very far from a 'follow blindly' list, and most of the National Hunt entries carry a heavy 'small par sample size' warning: we simply don't have enough historical data from which to be confident about the jumps pars yet.

Published with caveat emptor, then, here is a download link to the spreadsheet.

Appendix 2: Kempton Sectional 'Fast Finishers' list

Equally caveated, below are the horses that I felt were of some interest in terms of finishing well in their races on Kempton's all-weather strip. I've mostly excluded exposed runners in favour of novice races.