Tag Archive for: DAVID LOUGHNANE

Do Bronxs set for Rose Bowl bid

David Loughnane is of the view he is not going to dodge a challenge with Do Bronxs, who runs in the Ire-Incentive – It Pays To Buy Irish Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury on Friday.

Owned by Amo Racing, the 80,000 guineas purchase is the first foal out of Lola Showgirl, a Royal Ascot and Group Three winner for Loughnane.

Do Bronxs made his debut up at Ayr but went off a weak 10-1 shot before staying on strongly inside the final furlong to win well.

He is up against Charlie Appleby’s Norfolk Stakes runner-up Wise Approach but Loughnane is never one to shy away from a good one.

“He’s a nice horse, he impressed on his debut and he seems to have come on leaps,” said Loughnane.

“I think a lot of him.

“Obviously the Godolphin horse who was second in the Norfolk sets the standard and could prove hard to beat but you can’t run away from one horse.

“If he’s going to be as good as I think he is he’ll have to be competitive in this company.”

Wise Approach won on his debut and was then fourth at York in a race won by the reopposing First Legion, but the Godolphin runner turned that form around at Ascot when beating all bar Charles Darwin.

Appleby told the Godolphin website: “Wise Approach came out of Ascot well and we feel that stepping back up to six furlongs will suit.

“If he runs to anything near the level of his Norfolk Stakes form, it should make him very competitive in this grade.”

Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid has two runners, George Boughey’s Windsor winner Amorim and the Kevin Ryan-trained Rock On Thunder, who was ninth of 20 in the Coventry.

Tom Dascombe’s Kolkata Knight is the only other runner with the planned Irish raider Nuevo Slovo now not taking part.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!