Posts

Loughnane sets sights on Phoenix target for Go Bears Go

Go Bears Go is set to return to Ireland for the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes following his impressive victory at the Curragh on Saturday.

A winner on his racecourse debut at Ascot in May, the Kodi Bear colt returned to the Berkshire circuit with plenty of confidence behind him at the Royal meeting a couple of weeks ago – and ran an excellent race to finish a head second to Perfect Power in the Norfolk Stakes.

Connections boldly stumped up the £10,000 supplementary fee and allowed him to turn out just nine days later for the Group Two Railway Stakes, a decision which was fully justified as Dave Loughnane’s stable star comfortably beat the Irish in their own back yard.

“We were obviously thrilled with the horse, especially after going so close at Royal Ascot,” said the Shropshire-based trainer.

“We went into Royal Ascot thinking we were good enough to win and walked away thinking we were good enough to win. Just on the day we were drawn on the wrong side, not taking anything away from the winner.

“The lad who rides him every day sat on him on Monday morning and said ‘God, he feels as good as he did before Ascot’. I had a sit on him on Tuesday morning and felt the same.

“It was Kia Joorabchian’s (owner) son Max, who is only 10 or 11 years old, who actually suggested supplementing him for the Railway. It probably wasn’t on our agenda as it was so soon after Royal Ascot, but once I’d sat on him Tuesday morning, we decided to give it a go.

“Royal Ascot clearly took nothing out of him – he’s got a great constitution and a great mind.

“We rolled the dice and we reaped the rewards, so it was brilliant – a huge day.”

Loughnane confirmed the Phoenix Stakes on August 8 is next on the agenda, adding: “We’ve got six weeks until the Phoenix and I think that’s where we’ll go.

“He’s had a busy 10 days now, so we’ll give him a quiet couple of weeks and then we’ve got three and a half to four weeks to get him ready for the Phoenix. That’s the most logical step, I think.

“I’ve not seen too many yet that I’d be afraid of and that is hopefully the plan.”

Go Bears Go (right) stretches clear at the Curragh
Go Bears Go (right) stretches clear at the Curragh (Lorraine O’Sullivan/PA)

With Go Bears Go having now proved his stamina over six furlongs, his proud trainer is not ruling out the possibility of the colt tackling even longer distances in the future.

He said: “I think he’d stay seven furlongs if we needed him to, but it’s not something we need to think about for now.

“He’s got so much boot and is so effective over five and six, we can stick to that for the time being. I think he would settle if we needed him to – he travels away so strongly and drops the bridle when you want him to, so I don’t see stepping up being a problem.

“It’s great to have a horse like him in the yard. It gives us an opportunity to show what we can do on the next level.”

Go Bears Go too strong for Railway rivals

Go Bears Go repaid the bold decision of his connections to supplement for the GAIN Railway Stakes with a striking success at the Curragh.

Narrowly beaten in last week’s Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot when drawn on the opposite side to winner Perfect Power, he handled the extra furlong with aplomb.

Just nine days after that effort, and with a journey to Ireland thrown in, Go Bears Go showed bright early speed before his jockey Rossa Ryan was content to take a lead off Frankie Dettori on The Acropolis.

With two furlongs to run there were only two jockeys not asking their mounts for everything, Ryan on the eventual winner and Chris Hayes on Fozzy Stack’s Castle Star, who had been dropped out last in the early stages.

While Castle Star was able to go by all his other rivals, he could not reel in Go Bears Go and his chance eventually evaporated when he began to drift to his right.

Go Bears Go (17-2) kept straight and true, though, and for his upwardly-mobile trainer David Loughnane – who broke his Ascot duck last week – it represented the biggest win of his fledgling career.

It was a similar sentiment for Ryan, who only returned on Friday after recovering from a broken collar bone and an appendicitis operation.

Betfair introduced the winner into their 2000 Guineas betting at 33-1.

Go Bears Go and Rossa Ryan score a notable success
Go Bears Go and Rossa Ryan score a notable success (PA Wire)

“He ran a super race in the Norfolk – he was just the wrong side. We were so positive that he’d stay six furlongs,” said Ryan.

“It was a big toss-up before Ascot between the Norfolk and the Coventry. Dave took a massive risk coming here a week later. We’re glad it’s paid off.

“He’s a top-class sprinter in the making I think. He’s got the best attitude being by Kodi Bear.

“A big up to Robson Aguiar (bloodstock agent) and his team, who did prep this lad for the breeze-ups, and they prep a good few of our yearlings. They did a fantastic job with him.

“To Dave Loughnane and all his team, they’ve been rock solid. I have the easy job of steering them and I can only say thanks to everybody.

“I had a hard month. Everybody at Oaksey House got me through it.

“I have to give a massive thanks to my boss Kia (Joorabchian) and everyone at Amo Racing because they had the faith in me to get back on these on such a big weekend and do it.”

Loughnane said: “Fair play to the team at Amo Racing. It was actually Kia’s son Max who put this race forward so close after Ascot, so fair play to the team for supplementing him.

“We walked away from Ascot thinking we were the best horse in the race and were unlucky not to win.

“We’ve come into what was probably the best two-year-old race of the year so far and we’ve put them to the sword and put them to bed.

“We thought he was the best going to Ascot and we thought he was the best going into today and he’s proved that.

“It’s huge for us, especially myself and Rossa coming back to our homeland. It’s the biggest day of my career.”

Go Bears Go could make swift return with trip to the Curragh this weekend

David Loughnane is considering supplementing narrow Norfolk Stakes runner-up Go Bears Go for Saturday’s GAIN Railway Stakes at the Curragh.

An impressive winner on his debut at Ascot, the Kodi Bear colt returned to the Berkshire venue for the Royal meeting last week.

Racing on the opposite side of the track from the eventual winner Perfect Power he was beaten just a neck – and could attempt to gain swift compensation.

It would have been a rapid Royal double for Loughnane who opened his account for the meeting in Wednesday’s final race with Lola Showgirl, with Go Bears Go running in the opening contest on Thursday.

“It was very frustrating but we couldn’t be disappointed with him, I think if we were drawn on the near side he might have won,” said Loughnane.

“He just does what he has to do. We’re talking nothing away from the winner whatsoever, but we know we’ve got plenty more up our sleeve and I think we’ve a lot to look forward to.

“We could potentially supplement him for the Railway Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday, we’ll decide tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.

“The thinking is maybe go there on Saturday and then go back for the Phoenix Stakes on August 8 with a view of then going for the Prix Morny with the Gimcrack also on the table.

“We’ve always thought the world of him and he’s gone and proved that to us again.”

Loughnane could also be heading to Ireland with Lola Showgirl, who won the Kensington Palace Stakes, beating stablemate Ffion.

“Lola Showgirl, if all goes to plan, we’ll target the Galway Festival with her,” he said.

“We’ve not made a plan for Ffion, we’ll see what the handicapper does to both of them. I think both will have another handicap next, then then we’ll look for black type later in the year.”

Moment to remember for Laura Pearson at Royal Ascot with Lola Showgirl

Laura Pearson marked the inaugural running of the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot by leading home a memorable one-two for trainer David Loughnane on Lola Showgirl.

Pearson, still a 5lb claimer as she continues her rise to prominence as one of the emerging stars of the weighing room, is just the fourth female jockey to win at the meeting – and the first to do so as an apprentice.

She had Lola Showgirl perfectly positioned and stretched clear into the straight – where it soon became apparent that only her stablemate Ffion, ridden by Richard Kingscote, was close enough to mount a meaningful challenge.

But Pearson and her willing partner had matters under control, staying on with great determination as the 12-1 winners by three-quarters of a length – for not only her first Royal Ascot success but Shropshire trainer Loughnane’s too, in the new handicap for fillies and mares.

Pearson has ridden at Ascot a few times previously, but was making her debut at the showpiece meeting.

The 20-year-old said: “I don’t even know what to say. It’s just incredible. I knew she had a chance and was a strong contestant for my first Royal Ascot ride.

“I took a break at the end of the all-weather season to protect my 5lb claim for the turf campaign and it’s paid off.

“I had an absolutely lovely run, she bowled out, she’s been running over seven (furlongs) but Mr Loughnane said she’d want every stride of the mile.

“She bowled out, got into a lovely rhythm and just kept plugging on for me.”

She added: “That was my first Royal Ascot ride. I’ve ridden at Ascot about three or four times before this.”

“Hollie (Doyle) helps me so much, as well as Hayley (Turner), I can’t thank them enough for the amount of times they’ve given me a hand and it’s paid off.

“It’s just unimaginable, honestly, I dreamt of it but I never thought it would happen.”

Loughnane said: “Some kids dream of being footballers, singers and superheroes – this is my dream. To be living it is very surreal so quickly in my career. Myself and (wife) Sarah are so grateful to our families, our owners, our staff. It might take a while to sink in, this.

“It was a case of who do you cheer for, and I think the chant became ‘come on, girls!’. I’d be lying if I said we didn’t fancy them both coming in today. I couldn’t split them. Ffion probably has more ability while Lola Showgirl, as she showed today, is just so tough. She loves a fight.”

“I’m delighted for the owners, delighted for the staff and it’s one that will live long in the memory.”

He went on: “I’ve been a fan of Laura for a long time. I’d seen her riding when she went up to David Evans as an apprentice. I was impressed by her then and we’ve tried just to support her as much as we could since, and she’s rewarded that support tenfold.

“She’s as cool as a breeze – whether she’s from off the pace or is in the front, she’s got her sectionals to the second. Her first ride at Royal Ascot…that’s a hell of a ride. She’s repaid our faith in her and I couldn’t be happier for her and everyone else involved.”

Royal Ascot beckons for Go Bears Go

David Loughnane is likely to keep his powder dry with Go Bears Go and wait until Royal Ascot to run him again.

The Kodi Bear two-year-old was an impressive winning debutant at Ascot on Saturday, justifying his jump in price from £50,000 as a yearling to 150,000 guineas at the Craven Breeze-Up Sale.

Having broken smartly, Go Bears Go was too professional for his rivals over five furlongs – and Loughnane now needs to decide whether to keep him at that trip next month in the Norfolk or move up to six in the Coventry.

“I don’t know yet if he’ll run again, but my initial thought was to go straight to the Royal meeting,” said the Shropshire trainer.

“If he started kicking the door down in the next week then there is the Listed National Stakes at Sandown later this month he could go for. But in my head I’m thinking we’ll go straight there.

“I think he’s going to be a better horse over six furlongs, but we’ll put him in both races at Royal Ascot and see where we are.

“We weren’t heading to Ascot for a day out – we went thinking we had the best horse in the race, but the only question mark was whether he’d go on the softer ground, so it’s nice he handled it.

“We’ve 22 two-year-olds in, and at the moment he’s top of the pile, but we’ve four or five not that far behind him. We took them for a racecourse gallop earlier in the month, and there’d be a few pretty close to him. We’ve got a nice bunch this year.”

Caroline Dale finished third in the Queen Mary last year for Loughnane at 100-1, and proved it was no fluke when third to stablemate Santosha in the Princess Margaret back at Ascot.

“Caroline is back with us, but Santosha stayed with her owner back in Ireland,” said Loughnane.

“Caroline did have a small setback but is back cantering away. There’s a Listed race at Haydock at the end of the month, and we’ll pencil that in at the moment.

“After that we’re looking at the five-furlong handicap at Royal Ascot (Palace of Holyroodhouse).”

Fizzy Feet not for catching at Lingfield

A return to Lingfield for next month’s Kachy Stakes is on the agenda for Fizzy Feet after securing her fifth course victory on Friday.

David Loughnane’s speedy mare carries the colours of owner David Lowe, whose Kachy produced several front-running victories at Lingfield before tragically suffering a fatal injury at the track last February.

While Fizzy Feet has some way to go to match his achievements, she produced a performance reminiscent of the former all-weather sprinting star in the Betway Handicap – and is now bound for a Listed contest named in his honour in just over a fortnight’s time.

A 5-1 outsider following a disappointing effort on her latest appearance at Lingfield, the daughter of Footstepsinthesand was soon bowling along in the lead under Rossa Ryan and had her rivals in serious trouble rounding the home turn.

Fizzy Feet found another gear to put clear daylight between herself and the field early in the straight and passed the post with three-quarters of a length in hand of Brian The Snail.

Loughnane said: “She dynamite round there – she loves any all-weather track with tight bends, to be fair.

“She’s only improved age and has won now at two, three, four and five. She’s stepped up in grade nicely every time.

“We were pretty confident today. The last day she ran in Wolverhampton she just took a false step and her chance was scuppered from there, and when she ran in the Listed race at Lingfield the race just wasn’t run to suit.”

Confirming her next objective, he added: “We’ll have a crack at the Kachy Stakes on February 6.

“The furlong off the bend there, she’s done it in 10.61 seconds – I don’t know if Kachy ever broke that sort of time over a furlong.

“She’s got plenty of gears and I thought it was an impressive performance under a top-quality ride from Rossa.”

Buy Me Back (right) in action at Lingfield
Buy Me Back (right) in action at Lingfield (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Mark Loughnane – no relation to David – landed the following Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap with 16-5 shot Buy Me Back.

David Probert’s mount got the better of Indian Pursuit by a length after a five-furlong dash – and Probert went on to complete a double aboard the William Jarvis-trained newcomer Duke Of Verona (33-1) in the Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost Novice Stakes.

Not many meetings pass without Hollie Doyle booting home a winner these days, and she struck gold once more aboard the Simon Hodgson-trained Mr Mac (11-4 favourite) in the Bombardier British-Hopped Amber Beer Handicap.

Yorkshire raiders Fred (11-2) and Society Red (16-1), trained by Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey respectively, were also among the winners.

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.50 Bath : Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by Vet ; Lame)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, which shows two of my own angles...

...and a 6 yr old gelding who won LTO 15 days ago (over 8.5f here at Wolverhampton). That win took his career A/W record to...

...from which he is...

  • 7/43 (16.3%) in handicaps
  • 7/32 (21.9%) within 15 days of his last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/35 (17.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/26 (19.2%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 5/20 (25%) at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.1%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1/1 (100%) under jockey Ray Dawson (from LTO)

And now to my two saved angles, starting with "TapSprSire", which is basically a collection of sires whose offspring fare well in shorter races on the Tapeta. In today's case, the sire is Art Conoisseur and the angle is...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/51 (19.6%) at odds of 3/1 to 14/1
  • 9/67 (13.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/64 (14.1%) from males
  • 8/45 (17.8%) during 2018-20
  • 6/35 (17.1%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 6/32 (18.75%) over 7f
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for trainer David Loughnane
  • 5/31 (16.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/16 (18.75%) from 6 yr olds
  • 2/6 (33.3%) from jockeys claiming 5lbs
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Ray Dawson

And finally to my cunningly entitled "Wolv" angle, which you might have guessed revolves around this course and here we're looking at trainer stats, namely...

...including...

  • 40/264 (15.2%) in handicaps
  • 33/229 (14.4%) in 9-12 runner contests
  • 31/143 (21.7%) at 3/1 to 11/1
  • 29/189 (15.3%) during 2019-20
  • 28/203 (13.8%) from males
  • 16/123 (13%) at Class 6
  • 15/100 (15%) over this 7f C&D
  • 11/79 (13.9%) in fields of 12 runners
  • 10/60 (16.6%) during August/September
  • 5/24 (20.8%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs
  • and 4 from 21 (19.1%) with 6 yr olds

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Giles aiming to graduate to Group Two level in Rockfel date

Clive Cox is looking for Isabella Giles to continue on an upward curve in the Group Two Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket on Friday.

The two-year-old was last seen winning the Group Three Prestige Stakes at Goodwood, where she finished seven lengths ahead of Charlie Hills’ Prado in testing conditions.

That was a third win in four starts for the daughter of Belardo, having also prevailed in her first two racecourse appearances at Leicester and Newbury.

“She was a very impressive winner in the Prestige,” Cox said.

“I was happy to see that Newmarket got some decent rainfall last night.

“She’s in excellent form and we very much hope that she can continue her progression, all being well.”

Prior to Goodwood, Isabella Giles was fourth in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot, suffering her only defeat to date when beaten a length and a half by David Loughnane’s Santosha.

The two fillies clash again on Friday, with Santosha also declared for the Rockfel and Thomas Greatrex due to take the ride.

Loughnane is hoping his charge can bounce back from a disappointing effort when a distant eighth behind Miss Amulet in the Group Two Lowther Stakes at York.

“We’re always hopeful for a big run, she’s a lovely filly,” he said.

“I think the race has probably come about four or five days too soon – in an ideal world I’d prefer it if it was later.

“She’s had a nice little freshen up after the Lowther, she looks great and she’s done really well after a little break. We’ll roll the dice and take our chance.”

Loughnane has no reservations about the step up in distance, with the filly tackling the seven-furlong trip for the first time after being campaigned exclusively over six furlongs so far.

“We’ve always felt she was going to be a stronger filly over seven,” he said.

“That was always the plan throughout the year – we’ve been working up to seven all season.”

Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista sets the standard in the Group Three Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes.

An impressive winner of the Upavon Fillies’ Stakes at Salisbury on her penultimate start, the daughter of Frankel was last seen beating all bar the brilliant Love in the Yorkshire Oaks, having since missed the Park Hill at Doncaster.

Alpinista is one of four three-year-olds in a six-strong line-up, along with the John Gosden-trained Franconia, Sir Michael Stoute’s Katara and Queen Daenerys from Roger Varian’s yard.

The two older fillies in contention are the William Haggas-trained Sea Of Faith – winner of a Listed race in France last week – and Ralph Beckett’s Antonia De Vega, who has not been seen in competitive action since landing a Listed prize at Pontefract in June.

A 17-strong field go to post for the Listed Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes.

Leading contenders include the long-absent Ummalnar from the Haggas yard, Andrew Balding’s Bounce The Blues and Richard Hannon’s Cloak Of Spirits.

The latter kicked off the campaign with a runner-up finish behind Love in the 1000 Guineas, but has failed to better that performance in four subsequent outings.

“Cloak Of Spirits is in good form. She was a little bit disappointing at Doncaster last time out (fifth in Sceptre Stakes), but I think this race will be nice for her as it is a drop down to Listed level,” said Hannon.

“She has been second in a Guineas and placed two other times at Group-race level – she has run good races.

“It is a little bit disappointing she hasn’t won yet this year, so it would be good if she could take advantage in a Listed race like this.

“It gives you a little bit more confidence that she has run well here before as well.”

Listed honours are also up for grabs in the Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes, which features a trio of Godolphin runners in Charlie Appleby’s pair of Loxley and Walton Street and Saeed bin Suroor’s Volcanic Sky.

Laafy (Stoute), Aloe Vera (Beckett) and Golden Pass (Hugo Palmer) are the other hopefuls.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!