Breeders' Cup 2025 in beautiful Del Mar, sunny California (obligatory adjectives) whizzed by over the weekend, a back-loaded two-day event featuring 14 Championship races, nine of them on the Saturday, and loads of international interest.

What follows is a combination of my race thoughts, betting outcomes and lessons learned from one of the toughest wagering puzzle books in the calendar.

For those of you who were not Geegeez Premium (Gold or Lite) subscribers at the weekend, you can now download my Breeders' Cup Compendium here to follow along.

Friday

Juvenile Turf Sprint

We kicked off Friday, a day comprising the five two-year-old races, with the Juvenile Turf Sprint. This was a full field of 12, though Charlie Appleby's Military Code missed the event and one of the 'also eligibles' (reserves) got a run. In my preview, I'd noted how hard it was to win from a wide draw and had sided against those runners, a group that included a lot of the speed in the race. As it happened, the horse drawn 9 tracked the wide speed and won well; Aidan's second string, Brussels, finished best for the runner up slot from stall 1.

This was to set the tone regarding wide drawn horses winning on the turf track - and my pre-race opposition to them - and is one of the lessons learned as I'll come on to. As we'll also see, it was a result that favoured me: I'd backed Cy Fair ante post before the draw, and at 20/1 compared with his US tote price of 5/1 (presumably bigger with the UK bookmakers). I would not have backed him on the day at his 'day of race' price or from his draw; so I was kind of lucky here. That luck wouldn't hold.

I nominated Military Code in the Compendium - he was a non-runner. The trends picks were True Love and Havana Anna, a pair of fillies which never got involved - getting in each other's way a bit before finishing 8th and last of 12.

Juvenile Fillies

The first dirt race, and one in which I'd made four ante-post bets, three of which failed to enter the race! This is another lesson to learn. The other one, and the view I'd taken in the Breeders' Cup Compendium (BCC hereafter), was Iron Orchard, winner of key prep the Frizette. It turns out that race was no good this year, which was what the market felt; I had suggested the form might be under-rated. I was wrong on that. The unexposed filly Super Corredora made all on an annoyingly speed-favouring track, another feature of the weekend.

I'd noted that "she showed much her best form when stretched out to a mile, blitzing her field by more than eight lengths. She seemed much more at home with the steadier tempo of that mile race, travelling kindly throughout" but the class gulf meant I overlooked her save for suggesting "Super Corredora and La Wally have small bits of a chance in what might not be a vintage renewal".

It wasn't a vintage renewal and Iron Orchard finished last, La Wally second last, with Super C returning around 9/1 having been 20/1 a day before the race.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is a race I've been trying to beat ante post for a while, my angle being that the Euros had a shocking record in it and the US team was vastly under-rated by the British books. However, Aidan had won two of the last three - and with classy fillies Meditate and Lake Victoria - so maybe the tide was turning. Certainly he had another top notcher in Precise entered this time, though she had the worst draw in 13 of 13. She got withdrawn on the morning of the race.

My plays were scattergun: five bets, two ante post non-runners and three guesses against the (withdrawn) favourite. The best I could manage was fifth as Balantina, an unconsidered Donnacha horse, beat Pacific Mission, an unconsidered Balding horse. They were drawn 10 and 12 respectively, and the third exited post 11. I could not have got this more wrong if I'd tried.

The key to the wide horses dominating the finish was a mental early pace set by Switch In Love, a Japanese runner who should have been in the sprint; she went 22.33 for the first quarter mile, which is ridiculous. That was material because it stretched the field out into almost single file, meaning those wide horses did not have to travel four and five horses away from the rail around the turns which they would have had to do off a more sensible tempo. I was unable to locate any run style information on the tearaway leader and that blind spot - not the last of the weekend - was expensive in this case.

Ultimate Love and Ground Support were the BCC trends picks in the race, the latter running third - under Adam Beschizza, remember him? - at close to 25/1. My own picks, as discussed, are still running.

Juvenile

The Juvenile featured one of the shortest priced horses of the weekend, Ted Noffey, in the shortest field of the weekend. Just six went to post after Civil Liberty and, more painfully for my ante post bets, Blackout Time were scratched. Ted got it done while Intrepido, flagged along with Blackout Time in the BCC, ran down the field: his waited with run style was extremely unfavoured on this track over the two days. I'm sure it's difficult but this was such a biased track for such a big day; surely they can do better. Ted was trends pick.

Juvenile Turf

Again, my angle was that wide would be compromised and again they went a million miles an hour. This time, Outfielder - who was also entered in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and surely should have run there - went berzerk, blitzing the opening two furlongs in 22.2 seconds! (They have a thing called 'run up' in US races, which is a bit of ground not measured by the clock meaning he achieved that time from a running start; I'd say it would be impossible to do it from a standing start!)

So, once more, the hellish early gallop stretched them out, Gstaad - the best horse in the race, no question - getting a great trip under Soumi. He was the BCC trends pick but was definitely not my form preview pick on account of... well you know by now. Joseph's North Coast was third and a 58/1 bomb ran second; if he'd beaten Gstaad, I'd have had a trifecta that paid for the weekend. 'If' is a very cheap word on Breeders' Cup weekend...

I flagged three e/w against the fav, the best of them, Street Beast, finishing fourth at 16/1 for place money with most books.

Friday Bets

A difficult punting day but not a massive disaster, mainly on account of there only being five of the 14 races staged that day! Here was my tale of the punting tape. The odds differential column on the right hand side compares the price taken with the US return. A number bigger than 1 means the price taken beat the returned price. This is for guidance only because there are lots of white spaces where the non-runners appear. Waaaay too many non-runners on Juvenile Friday.

 

Saturday

Bloodied but unbowed, Saturday arrived. I've long held the view that a 6-8 split of races would work better than the 5-9 - it's just a bit of a slog by the end on Saturday; but there's no real way to add a non-juvenile race to the Friday card without arguably undermining it a little. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt to have either the Turf Sprint or the Filly & Mare Sprint start the Friday card. That would undoubtedly give more balance to the BC race distribution but I can see why it would be unpalatable to connections. As with so many things, it is what it is.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Speaking of the FM Sprint, it is a low key starter to Saturday's proceedings and, this year, was even more muted than normal thanks to the double scratch - veterinary advice, it's a big deal in California where the anti-racing brigade are visual and vocal and well represented in politics - of Sweet Azteca and Tamara, the first two in the betting.

They were also some of the speed, meaning it would be even harder for Zeitlos - my deep closer pick - to run them down from out back. As it happened, she made a really nice move on the turn before flattening out into fourth; which was no good from a betting return perspective. I didn't have a view in the BCC, flagging winner Splendora as a possible (along with others). The trends pick Hope Road ran third.

Turf Sprint

The first grass race Saturday and another Euro hopeful after notching two of the three turf contests on Friday. The race was again denuded of some of its lustre as Adrian Murray's well-fancied Arizona Blaze failed the vet. My pick, Motorious, always needs the splits to appear with his late running style; and they didn't here. He stayed on for a never nearer fifth. Arizona had been the trends pick. Shisospicy very impressively led all the way, while Khaadem, a horse that needs another furlong, produced a mighty effort in third for Charlie Hills and Frankie Dettori.

This was a race marred by the desperate loss of She's Quality, a massive flag bearer for the Jack Davison team. She pulled up soon after the start and was found to have an irreparable pelvic fracture. So sad.

Sprint

The six furlong dirt sprint was a race in which Bentornato was a strong favourite. I'd backed him after his prep run win - lucky me, right? - but couldn't put him up at shorter than 2/1 in a full field given the chance he might 'bounce' after that huge return effort. He didn't bounce and he again ran huge, scoring by better than two lengths for the same trainer, Jose d'Angelo, who had won the preceding Turf Sprint.

Bentornato was a trends contender in the BCC, and my trio of e/w bombs for the race included the Japanese horse American Stage, which ran 4th at 33/1 in UK. That was a paying place position.

Distaff

The nine furlong Distaff was all about Seismic Beauty for a lot of people but, as she "picked up a quarter" - a lovely euphemism for taking a bobble/pitching forward - a couple of strides out of the gate, her race was over; she was eventually eased off.

Her failure to contest the pace, which she habitually does, made life a lot easier for Scylla on that speed-favouring strip. She made pretty much all to score by a five length margin from Canadian hope Nitrogen, with my deep closer play Regaled (33/1) picking up third, and e/w pick Clicquot getting fourth - a paying place with many books.

Seismic was the trends pick, along with a non-runner, and BCC form picks Clicquot and Regaled both made the place payouts at solid prices.

Turf

Next up was the Turf, and it was a typical 'right thinking, wrong play' renewal of a race I just always get wrong. The 'wrong Euro' angle is so strong in the Turf. This time, Minnie Hauk was the strong betting favourite but she'd had a long enough season and a hard enough race in the Arc. Ethical Diamond, for Willie, had shown blistering closing speed in a Royal Ascot handicap and then the Ebor - and he did the same again here. In my write up, I'd noted, "He’s not a million miles from the required level, probably needing to find seven pounds or so; and he showed a dazzling turn of foot at Ascot, closing out the last quarter mile up the hill in 23.24 off an even tempo. And again, off a slowish early pace, he ran the last two furlongs at York in 23.89 seconds. I’m almost talking myself into this..!"

Almost. But I didn't talk myself into it.

The trends highlighted four horses which included Rebel's Romance in second and El Cordobes - 33/1 back home - in third. My BCC form suggestions were Goliath (very disappointing) and Amiloc (nice effort in 4th, a paying place).

Classic

A fascinating contest even without its star attraction, Sovereignty having spiked a temperature a couple of days before the race. I'd mused about the lack of form lines between generations and it indeed transpired that the older horses were clear of the classic cohort, filling the podium with the same trio that did likewise a year ago. The pack was shuffled this time, however, and it was the Japanese superstar Forever Young - on the same day that human compatriot Yoshinobu Yamamoto headlined in the LA Dodgers' unlikely World Series comeback win - that emerged on top for one of the world's best trainers, Yoshito Yahagi. It was a big night for Californian Japanese residents!

Forever Young, racing handily throughout, held the (frequently) unlucky Sierra Leone by an evaporating half length at the line. That one always comes hard and late in his races; you know by now the piste was against him. Fierceness rounded out a chalky trifecta as the remaining trends pick (Sovereignty, a lovely ante post ticket for me, was sunk on Thursday. Sigh)

I felt the market had the race by the short and curlies and so it proved. Trying to be cute, I sided with a pair of longshots who ran accordingly in 7th and 8th of nine, beating only the no hoper pacemaker. My other star ante post bet, Baeza, took a lot of support... and also ran clunk, with five horses in front of home past the wire 🙁

Mile

It was looking for all the world like a washout for yours true before the Mile. I'd invested in Notable Speech ante post at 6/1 and 13/2, another value bet before the gates opened, his SP around 5/2. Of course, I'd watched that show a number of times already over the weekend only to grimace at the twist in the tale. This time, no such worries as a confident William Buick steered Notable Speech to an easy length and a half verdict over Formidable Man, now six wins and a second on the Del Mar turf - and the best Californian grass horse for a few years.

The Lion In Winter ran a belter in third, with Sahlan for Francis-Henri Graffard closing too late into fifth. He was beaten a nose for fourth, sinking a decent ante post each way ticket. I'm running out of sighs.

Sahlan and Rhetorical, the horse that clung to fourth, were the Trends picks while BCC flagged Sahlan and Jonquil, the latter very disappointing (to me) in ninth.

Dirt Mile

This was one favourite I wanted to be with. Nysos had looked a proper horse this season and, though he'd had a minor injury scare since his last win, he towered over his field on form and numbers. As it turned out, he was all but undone by the track bias, eventually prevailing in a desperate head bob photo with the almost-all-the-way Citizen Bull, last year's Juvenile champion.

He was the trends pick and the form pick in BCC, and he was the second leg of a 'Ted Nysos' double for me which clawed back a few of the many prior wrong turns I'd made.

Filly & Mare Turf

We closed out with the FM Turf and, as it was last year, my biggest bet of the weekend. As it was last year, that was on Cinderella's Dream; and, as it was last year, I left the money in the satchel. A year ago she'd be terribly unlucky in defeat, a fast closing second having failed to secure the gaps. This time, she was flat as a dab and finished midfield. So much for cutely grabbing four places each way - she finished eighth!

More happily, I had also backed Gezora earlier in the week at 9/2. Gezora won in a photo with another wire-to-wire attempter, the excellent US mare She Feels Pretty. But wait, what's this? Gezora returned 9.1/1 on the US 'nanny' and 14.5 on Betfair! Jaysus holy cripes. Way to turn a winner into a loser!

Trying to catch the superfecta (first four correct order) which paid a tidy $781.15 for a $0.10 stake, I had omitted She Feels Pretty, the clear second choice and a mare I greatly respected, in the second spot despite taking five horses in that berth. It wasn't a good weekend for my on track tote plays.

Nothing here for the trends picks, Cinders and See The Fire (the only wide drawn horse all weekend that got beaten - this was a slow pace and she could never get a position). But the BCC form suggestion included Gezora along with Cinders. I very much hope some of you managed to get either US tote, bookie odds or Betfair SP, all of which were at least double the price I took. Siiiiiigh.

Saturday Bets

In the end, thanks to a short-priced double and the ante post bet in the Mile - as well as that losing winner on Gezora - I managed to scrape a profit from my bookie bets. But, by the time I'd accounted for $500 of losing tote tickets - I bought a voucher for that much and steadily burned through it over the two days, so it was at least easy to track the size of the hole - it was a losing weekend. Candidly, it looked like being a lot worse than it turned out.

The nature of festival betting, whether it's Royal Ascot, Cheltenham or the Breeders' Cup, is that it's a very small sample size which can make one appear disproportionately good or bad. This year I looked pretty bad based on the results, but I hope Compendium readers appreciate the amount of legwork that went into those losers! I'll be doing little different next year... but I won't be doing nothing different next year. See 'lessons learned' below.

These were my Saturday bets.

 

 

And this is a little summary info on my weekend, for whatever it's worth.

 

 

Lessons Learned

Every day is a school day, especially when punting big events. Below are my lessons learned from BC2025, the 42nd edition of what is a strong contender for my favourite event of the racing year. (Apologies to just about everyone reading!!!)

1 A fast pace brings wide-drawn runners into consideration on the turf course

Those sprinter fractions on the front end in the mile two-year-old races completely unstitched the inside draw bias. As long as the horse was good enough, shunning the early speed from anywhere was the way to get it done. We knew Gstaad was good enough, and respect to Balantina also.

2 Do not bet juvenile races ante post

This one is a bit more nuanced. I've had good results doing this in the past, and indeed Cy Fair was a solid start to the meeting this time on a horse I would not have played on the day. But there's no doubt that it's attritional in terms of horses either failing to enter at the pre-entry stage or getting scratched by the CHRB (California Horse Racing Board) vets. They may be slightly stricter than their Keeneland counterparts who will oversee next year's Cup, but it's a big risk annually that horses bet early may not get a run; seemingly even more so in the juvenile races.

3 Look for electric acceleration in the turf races

I think the lesson here is that, to win on the grass, you need very fast closing speed; and, obviously, that needs to be in the context of the projected race pace. Gstaad, Ethical Diamond, Notable Speech, Gezora and co were all super-rapid at the end of their races and had demonstrated that earlier in the season. This does seem the key to unlocking the mile-plus turf races.

4 Consider the impact of field size on likely winner odds

This year I backed a LOT of outsiders; many more than I usually do. It did not pay off. Looking at the field sizes, which were generally smaller on the main (dirt) track, that was a mistake. It can be a crushing meeting to be backing favourites, which often have a torrid time of it; but as field sizes diminish there is less scope for a randomizer pace burn up and shock results. I definitely need to keep that in mind in dirt race considerations going forward.

5 Don't bet so many closers

Related, smaller fields tend to mean less early pace, which in turn means less opportunity for late runners to get involved. The imponderable when putting a guide together before the meeting starts is always how the dirt track will play. Usually, it's pretty fair, but sometimes it just hugely favours early speed. This year was one of those years.

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Breeders' Cup XLII (42 for cash) was a typically brilliant international showcase, with winners trained in UK, Ireland, France and Japan - as well as in the United States, of course. While it was shorn of its main star with the late defection of Sovereignty (who I personally feel would probably have been beaten given the primacy of the older horses), it still delivered quality and drama in supersize measure.

A quiet one for Aidan and Charlie - a single win apiece - meant space on the turf roll of honour for Donnacha, Willie and Francis-Henri. The meeting was all the better for that: expect at least the last two to be trying again twelve months hence, along with their more established colleagues.

It'll be Kentucky and autumnal weather for the BC43. God willing, I'll be there; and here's hoping for more of the same from a sporting perspective and, well, just more from a punting one.

- Matt