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Racing Insights, 2nd November 2021

The Shortlist report is Tuesday's free GOLD feature and this simple and usually brief report highlights those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

We also have our usual array of 'free' races and for this Tuesday, they are...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Exeter
  • 2.25 Exeter
  • 2.40 Redcar
  • 3.00 Newcastle

...whilst The Shortlist for Tuesday looks like this...

The two that are of obvious interest to me are the two Exeter runners, who both have four greens from a possible five. Greaneteen misses on on class, but still has a 16-32% win strike rate, just as Just A Sting does on field size, so both are worth a second glance if nothing else, starting with Greaneteen, who goes in the 1.55 Exeter, the Haldon Gold Cup, a 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m1½f on Good to Soft (soft in places and rain expected) ground. The race is worth £40,411 and our runner, Greaneteen actually won it last year. Here he is on the racecard with some relevant stats...

Greaneteen was a decent enough hurdler back in early 2019, winning two of four starts before embarking on a very successful chasing career that has seen him win five of nine wirth two further placed finishes including landing this race last season and a win at Grade 1 by the best part of four lengths last time out when he put the likes of Altior and Sceau Royal to the sword with ease.

He 'gets' further than this and likes soft/heavy ground and travels strongly as races progress. Instant Expert, below shows some of his chasing stats...

His score on The Shortlist shows all his runs, but when we focus on chasing, he now has a perfect line of green, as his 5 wins, 2 places from 9 over fences include...

  • 4 wins and a place from 5 going right handed
  • 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 2-7 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 races at Grade 1/2
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 handicap chases
  • 3 from 3 over 2m1f/2m1½f
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 on soft/heavy ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in November/December
  • 2 from 2 under today's jockey Bryony Frost (inc that Gr 1 LTO)
  • 1/1 here at Exeter (this race last year over C&D)

So, you'd definitely say that he had optimum conditions in front of him, not withstanding that off a mark of 168, he's going to need a career-best and he's conceding at least 17lbs to the field. He's a strong traveller, who likes to be up in the thick of the action and in most of his starts over fences, he has either led or raced quite prominently and either of those running styles would be a good fit here again today...

So, all told, I think we can expect another bold run from Greaneteen, even if he is carrying some extra weight in comparison to his rivals.

*

An hour later, the 9 yr old Just A Sting probably faces a tough challenge in the 2.55 Exeter, a 13-runner Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m½f on Good to Soft (soft in places and rain expected) ground. The race is worth £6,535 and here's Just A Sting's racecard entry...

...which doesn't exactly fill me with much hope. Don't get me wrong, he has been decent enough over fences in the past, but since winning at Kempton on 27th December 2019, he has only raced six times and has failed to complete four of them. The two he did complete saw him finish 8th of 10 in a bumper and 6th of 7, beaten by 45 lengths over fences back in March, so it's fair to say that his best form was some time ago and his 5 from 19 career record is somewhat bloated by his 2 wins from 3 in bumpers. His full record is highlighted here...

and just in handicap chases...

...but over the last two years...

...which backs up my assertion that not only has he not raced much of late, his form has been poor. He did enjoy coming to Exeter, winning twice and placing once from three visits, but hasn't been here for almost three years and despite now being some 11lbs lower than his last winning mark, it's hard to have much confidence in him based on form and/or stats.

Over fences, he has mainly tended to race in mid-division or further back and I think that will also put him at a major disadvantage here, based on how previous similar races have gone...

...where if you don't lead, you're likely to lose!

Summary

Harry Cobden rode Greaneteen to success in this race last year and he now rides the 11/8 favourite Hitman, but I'm not convinced that those odds nor the 7/2 available about Greaneteen are correct and I'd have them closer together. Hitman is no mug, of course and yes, he's getting a chunk of weight from Greaneteen, but I've got them much more closely matched. They're definitely each other's biggest threat, but the value (and my money) is with our featured runner Greaneteen here.

As for Just A Sting, he's probably 25/1 12th favourite of 13 for a reason and whilst he might not be the second worst in the race, I don't see him getting anywhere near the frame, never mind actually winning. It's not a race I'm particularly invested in, but 6/1 shot Pilbara is probably the one I'd side with if pushed, whilst Enqarde might be of E/W interest at 178/2 especially if your bookie pays four places.

 

Haldon Gold Cup Trends

The focus is on Exeter racecourse on Tuesday 2nd November as they stage the 2021 Haldon Gold Cup Chase – a Grade 2 limited handicap run over 2m1f.

Here at JuiceStorm we've got all the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Tuesday 2nd November.

Did you know that 13 of the last 19 winners were French-bred, while ALL of the last 19 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

 

Recent Haldon Gold Cup Winners

2020 - GREANETEEN (15/8 fav)
2019 - JANIKA (5/2 fav)
2018 – GOD’S OWN (7/2)
2017 - POLITOLOGUE (5/2 fav)
2016 – SIR VALENTINO (10/1)
2015 – VIBRATO VALTAT (5/2 fav)
2014 – GOD’S OWN (8/1)
2013 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2012 – CUE CARD (5/6 fav)
2011 – MEDERMIT (7/2)
2010 – TCHICO POLOS (3/1)
2009 – PLANET OF SOUND (4/1 fav)
2008 – ASHLEY BROOK (8/1)
2007 – PABLO DU CHARMIL (9/2)
2006 – IMPEK (9/1)
2005 – MONKERHOSTIN (10/1)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (6/5 fav)
2003 – EDREDON BLEU (7/2)
2002 -  EDREDON BLEU (10/1)

Haldon Gold Cup Betting Trends

19/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
18/19 – Having their 1st run of the new season
17/19 – Officially rated 150 or higher
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m2f before
16/19 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
13/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
13/19 – Carried 10-9 or more
12/19 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/19 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
10/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/19 – Had won just 3 previous times over fences
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Unplaced favourites
5/19 – Had won over fences at Exeter before
5/19 – Carried 11-10
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/19 – Aged 7 years-old
3/19 – Trained by Tom George
3/19 – Won their last race
2/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 5/1

 

 

 

Racing Insights, 19th January 2021

Tuesday's feature of the day is the Shortlist Report and our free races of the day are...

  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 2.35 Clonmel
  • 3.45 Exeter
  • 3.55 Fakenham

The Shortlist Report looks like this today...

...so why don't we see if Ballybreen is likely to land the spoils in the 3.45 Exeter, as that's one of our free races?

The card...

...says that he, Apple's Queen and Sandford Castle are the form horses here. His trainer is the only trainer with both a positive form (30) and course record (C5) icon and he heads the Geegeez Speed Ratings. He's one of only three course and distance winners and actually won this very contest a year ago.

As you'd expect, Instant Expert paints a good picture of him, although the red for his soft ground performances might be a little misleading, but I'll come to that shortly, of course!

You'll also notice that he's now 7lbs higher for winning five days ago, but that probably doesn't tell the whole story of a 32 length success, where he made all and was well clear from a long way out and would probably have still coasted home carrying a bag of wet sand. Those front running tactics will probably be used again today, but is that a good idea here at Exeter?

Well, with 9 wins from the 15 horses to have tried to win 13 similar races from the front, I'd say that leading is the best plan of attack and our pace tab suggests that's exactly what he'll do.

So from the card and its Instant Expert & Pace tabs, I've still no reason not to believe he can and will win this one. Time for a closer look at his numbers, I think.

His record over fences reads 111281 since the start of 2020 and he's never usually left in the shed too long. The exception to that was the one bad result in that list, when last of 8 over 3m2f on heavy ground having being laid off for 222 days. He still ran from the front that day but tired in the closing stages, as he'd be entitled to, so I don't read too much into that defeat. I'd also add that he wasn't wearing blinkers that day either, but does normally and will here.

In those six races and of relevance here, Conor Ring was in the saddle for all six, he finished 11121 in blinkers, 1112 going right handed, he won 3 from 3 in January, 2 from 2 over this trip (and 2 from 3 at 3m1.5f/3m2f), he had one win and one runner-up finish from two runs here at Exeter and the same record on soft ground (much better recently on soft than his previous form) and he did, of course, win this race a year ago on heavy ground.

Summary

It might all seem a bit short and sweet, but some days/races it takes virtually no time at all to come to a decision, especially when the compelling evidence is pretty much handed to you. I liked Ballybreen last time out and he won at a decent price. I like him here and I don't think 7lbs was the difference between him winning and not winning last time out.

So, yes, Ballybreen for me. 3/1 looks a tad generous as I was expecting 9/4 or 5/2 at best, I'm on!

Haldon Gold Cup Trends

The focus is on Exeter racecourse on Tuesday 3rd November as they stage the 2020 Haldon Gold Cup Chase – a Grade 2 limited handicap run over 2m1f.

In recent years the likes of Cue Card and Politologue have used this race to get their seasons started!

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year run on Tuesday 3rd November.

Did you know? 12 of the last 18 winners were French-bred, while ALL of the last 18 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

 

Recent Haldon Gold Cup Winners

2019 - JANIKA (5/2 fav)
2018 – GOD’S OWN (7/2)
2017 - POLITOLOGUE (5/2 fav)
2016 – SIR VALENTINO (10/1)
2015 – VIBRATO VALTAT (5/2 fav)
2014 – GOD’S OWN (8/1)
2013 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2012 – CUE CARD (5/6 fav)
2011 – MEDERMIT (7/2)
2010 – TCHICO POLOS (3/1)
2009 – PLANET OF SOUND (4/1 fav)
2008 – ASHLEY BROOK (8/1)
2007 – PABLO DU CHARMIL (9/2)
2006 – IMPEK (9/1)
2005 – MONKERHOSTIN (10/1)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (6/5 fav)
2003 – EDREDON BLEU (7/2)
2002 -  EDREDON BLEU (10/1)

Haldon Gold Cup Betting Trends

18/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m2f before
17/18 – Having their 1st run of the new season
16/18 – Officially rated 150 or higher
15/18 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
12/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/18 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/18 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Had won just 3 previous times over fences
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Had won over fences at Exeter before
5/18 – Carried 11-10
4/18 – Aged 7 years-old
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Tom George
3/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/18 – Won their last race
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 5/1

 

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Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Wetherby : Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, outpaced in 4th 4 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

Why?...

Big field, soft ground handicap chases aren't for the faint hearted, not even at this low grade of racing, but thankfully we've got a 7 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions.

A winner of each of his last three starts since blinkers were applied, all at 3m or beyond, all on soft or softer ground, all going right handed, all under jockey Conor Ring who again claims 3lbs and one win here at Exeter.

He's up another 5lbs for that latest win, but has had more than four weeks to get his his exertions and also takes a drop in class to run here today. He's not fazed by company (his wins were in fields of 10, 11 & 12 runners) and I expect another bold show today from this former heavy ground 3m PTP winner.

As for his trainer sending him here again, that's possibly because Evan Williams' runners are 20 from 91 (22% SR) for 65.7pts (+72.2% ROI) backed blindly here at Exeter since 2015.

Obviously I rarely (if ever) advocate backing every runner from a particular trainer at a track and I prefer to isolate certain profitable/relevant angles to our advantage and here's a baker's dozen of such possible lines of approach from those 91 runners...

  1.  18/77 (23.4%) for 65.8pts (+85.4%) from male runners
  2.  18/71 (25.4%) for 63.7pts (+89.7%) in races worth less than £11,000
  3.  14/51 (27.5%) for 62.5pts (+122.6%) in handicaps
  4.  13/47 (27.7%) for 54.4pts (+115.7%) with 6/7 yr olds
  5.  13/29 (44.8%) for 35.5pts (+122.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  6.  12/42 (28.6%) for 49.7pts (+118.4%) at 26-90 days since they last ran
  7.  12/35 (34.3%) for 66.1pts (+188.8%) on soft ground
  8.  9/38 (23.7%) for 24.3pts (+63.9%) from chasers
  9.  8/22 (36.4%) for 15.9pts (+72.3%) at Class 5
  10.  5/24 (20.8%) for 37.9pts (+157.9%) at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f
  11.  5/14 (35.7%) for 27.6pts (+196.9%) from LTO winners
  12.  5/10 (50%) for 21.41pts (+214.1%) with handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 15/2
  13.  and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.22pts (+191.3%) from those with one previous course win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Tuesday, with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!