Tag Archive for: Exeter racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 23/02/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers and your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 2.33 Exeter
  • 3.52 Warwick
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.15 Dundalk

...and with a pair of H4C qualifiers taking each other on in difficult conditions, let's head for the 4.10 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on heavy ground...

Top-weight Bells of Peterboro, Cedar Row, Striking A Pose and House of Stories all won last time out, but Farmer's Gamble, Decorated, Raddon Top and bottom weight Longshanks all failed to finish. That last pair of Raddon Top and Longshanks are the only ones without a win in their last five outings or more, having tasted defeat in seven and nine on the bounce respectively.

Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, bit Farmer's Gamble and Rock Danse both drop down a class here and the latter makes just a second handicap start today, as does Cedar Row, whilst it's handicap debut day for House of Stories. We've some first-time equipment on show today for Decorated (cheekpieces), Raddon Top (blinkers) and Lanspark (visor) and it's also Decorated's first run since recent wind surgery and it'll be Farmer's Gamble's second time in cheekpieces.

Famer's Gamble hasn't raced for three months and Decorated for two months, but the returner here is Cedar Row who has been off the track for 17 days short of a year since landing a soft-ground 2m5f hurdle at Warwick on handicap debut. Aside from this trio, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 20 to 32 days.

Raddon top won this race two years ago and is one of two former course and distance winners alongside Farmer's Gamble who scored here four starts ago at the start of February 2023. Striking A Pose(2m3f hurdle & chase), Chloe's Court (2m5½f/2m6f hurdles) and Longshanks (2m3f chase) have all won on this track, whilst Bells of Peterboro, Chloe's Court and Lanspark have all prevailed over this type of trip in the past...

Those who have managed to stay out of the red are relatively inexperienced under these conditions, whilst those with more races under their belts haven't really managed to win anywhere near as often as they'd have liked. Bells Of Peterboro is 0 from 8 at the trip, Raddon Top has struggled at class/trip and Lanspark has only won one of nine at Class 4.

If the field's recent efforts are anything to go by, we might have a three-way battle for the early lead...

...with Farmer's Gamble the likely back marker, but it is those that set the pace that tend to do best here...

...although it's a fairly small sample size.

Summary

The 7.15pm market for this pretty open race looks like this...

...and of the two favourites, I'd prefer Cedar Row based on the evidence from Instant Expert, even if Bells did win last time out and will race further forward. That said, I'm not rushing to back either at those prices. In fact I'd be more interested in small E/W plays on Chloe's Court and Striking A Pose. The latter won here last time out and has made the frame in three of his last five and five of his last eight, whilst the former was a runner-up here over course and distance and has finished 1142 in her last four outings.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 24/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.30 Exeter
  • 3.10 Hereford
  • 4.00 Exeter
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

And as one of my runners from The Shortlist is in one of our free races, I think we should look at Ajp Kingdom and his rivals in the 4.00 Exeter, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m7f on good ground...

Bottom weight Oceanline and The Imposter both won last time out and the latter has won his last three and has six wins and a runner-up finish from his last seven outings. Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both three-race maidens, whilst Royal Pretender and Moka de Vassy are winless in eight and ten races respectively; the former does place regularly though, but the latter is now 0 from 10!

Plenty of these are moving class here with Itso Fury, Go Chique, Ajp Kingdom and Brave Starlight all dropping in from Class 2, whilst the ten-race maiden Moka de Vassy, Goshhowposh and the form horse The Impostor all step up from Class 4.

Goshhowposh and Brave Starlight are both making handicap debuts here today after breaks of 297 and 144 days respectively, but others are returning from layoffs too, as Exmoor Forest, Itso Fury, The Imposter and Royal Pretender have been rested for 165, 199, 20 and 325 days themselves. The other five in the race have all been out in the last six weeks, though.

None of the field have won here at Exeter before, but only three have been here in a total of five races and whilst we also have no 2m7f winners, Ajp Kingdom, Gentleman Valley, Go Chique and The Imposter have all won at both 2m7½f and 3m.

Instant Expert says that this bunch haven't fared too well at this grade and we already know about the lack of course wins...

...but if we're looking at going and distance, then Itso Fury, Gentleman Valley and Ajp Kingdom are the eyecatchers with honourable mentions for Go Chique and The Imposter. Royal Pretender has failed to win any of eight starts at Class 3, but he hasn't struggled in all of them, as the place stats will show...

...in fact his place credentials look pretty good there and he's probably second best on numbers behind Itso Fury.

When it comes to judging the pace of the contest, previous similar races here at Exeter haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

...but thankfully none of these are out and out hold-up types, according to their last few runs...

I'd expect The Imposter and Ajp Kingdom to try to control the race from the front, but they probably won't be able to break clear from a group where all runners bar Goshhowposh have led/ran prominently in at least one of their last four outings and I think we're going to have a fairly tight bunch travelling together.

Summary

This looks a really tight/open race with plenty holding chances. So much so that the early Hills prices for this race only ranged from 6/1 to 12/1 for the whole field and it looks a tough one to call. Personally, I like The Imposter's form and he's very game, I also like the way Itso Fury scored well in the analysis, whilst Ajp Kingdom's place on The Shortlist must stand him in good stead.

Gentleman Valley also scored well on Instant Expert and E/W bettors have done well out of Royal Pretender, who has placed in 8 of his 13 starts over hurdles.

You really could make a case for most of these to put a decent effort in, but the five above would be the ones that interest me most. If pushed to pick a winner, I think I'd go with Itso Fury at 6/1 ahead of he similarly priced The Imposter. As you know I only like to play the E/W markets if I can get 8/1 or bigger, but both Gentleman Valley and Royal Pretender are offered at 10's, so they're options, especially with Betfred, Coral & Skybet all paying four places.

That said, it's not a race to put too much money on, but it could be an interesting watch.

 



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/04/23

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Hi guys, hope you all had a great Easter. I certainly did and I'm ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Exeter
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.00 Pontefract
  • 6.45 Dundalk

Of all the 'free' races and those containing runners from The Shortlist, the 3.45 Exeter interests me most on what is frankly a pretty poor day of racing. Miss Fairfax and Raddon Top go in this one and it's a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Ballydisco and Gerico Ville both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three.Miss Fairfax, Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Biowavego are all two from four and Come On Gruff is two from five, whilst Skandiburg and Ballymagroarty Boy are winless in 15 & 20 races respectively.

Most of these raced at this grade last time out, but the top two in the weights, Skandiburg & Miss Fairfax both drop a class here, as does So Said I. Hauraki Gulf is on handicap debut and it's only the second handicap outing for both Miss Fairfax and Ioupy Collonges.

Only three of this field (Miss Fairfax, So Said I & Raddon Top) have won at Exeter before and all have won over course and distance, whilst Skandiburg, Ballymagroarty Boy, Gerico Ville, Ballydisco and Biowavego have all won at this kind of trip elsewhere.

Most of the field have been out for a run inside the last five weeks or so, but both Come On Gruff and Biowavego were last seen in November of last year and might well need the run.

We have two mares in the race (Miss Fairfax & So Said I), seven previous good to soft winners and all bar Hauraki Gulf have won at Class 4, according to Instant Expert...

...where Ballymagroarty Boy definitely looks the weak link with a line of red. Skandiburg hasn't gone well on good to soft and prefers a shorter trip, whilst Hauraki Gulf's sole win was at Class 5. Shortlisted horse Raddon Top will relish most of the conditions, but would really want a downpour to come, as his best form is on soft or heavy ground.

Miss Fairfax has some good numbers, though, as do Ioupy Collonges, Gerico Ville and Snipe off admittedly small sample sizes.

This type of race has previously tended to suit those wanting to set the pace...

...which, based on recent outings is a definite positive for the likes of Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Gerico Ville...

Summary

Fairly brief today, because I don't feel the need to dig too deep with a pair of outstanding candidates like Ioupy Collonges and Gerico Ville and I'd be rally surprised if they weren't the first two home. Both are in great form, both scored well on Instant Expert and both will be right up with the pace. Ioupy is the 3/1 fave with Gerico offering more value at 6's and I don't think they're that far apart personally and I'd probably side with Gerico Ville today.

He's proven at this trip and beyond and is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Ioupy Collinges was beaten by over five lengths off this mark last time out and is asked for an extra 3½f here. He will win handicap races for sure, but I'm not convinced this one will be his first.

As for an E/W bet, So Said I might fit the bill at 16/1 with most bookies paying four places. She clearly needed the run at Chepstow last month after more than a year off but prior to her break, she had three wins and a place from her previous five outings, including a course and distance win here. She stays three miles, likes some cut in the ground and if up with the pace as expected could well hang on for a place.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Exeter
  • 2.17 Dundalk
  • 4.02 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Exeter

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on 1 year form and another two runners on 30-day form...

...and as the last of those three 'possibles', Oscars Moonshine, runs in the last of our 'free' races, it makes sense to have a quick look at the 4.30 Exeter, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Sacre Coeur won last time out, Top of the Bill won two starts ago and Ocasrs Moonshine, Sporting Ace and Longshanks have all also won at least one in five. Sporting Ace looks the most consistent on results, whilst Longshanks has failed to complete his last three runs, Padleyourowncanoe hasn't finished either of his last two and Buckhorn George has been pulled up in three of his last five.

Top of the Bill, Astigar, Oscars Moonshine and Longshanks all drop a class, whilst top-weight Padleyourowncanoe drops two levels for his yard debut after leaving the Skeltons. Top of the Bill wears cheekpieces for the first time whilst Astigar has a second crack at a handicap after a 20 length defeat at Cheltenham.

Oscars Moonshine has won here over course and distance with Padleyourowncanoe (2m1f hurdle), Longshanks (2m3f chase) and Chloe's Court (2m6f hurdle) also previously successful at this track, whilst Top of the Bill has won over three miles at Chepstow.

None of the field are turned out quickly and none are coming off long breaks with all having run in the last 24-82 days. We know that we've four course winners, but Instant Expert also highlights four good to soft NH winners, seven Class 4 winners and five who have scored at 2m6f to 3m...

Padleyourowncanoe has a reasonable set of numbers there, but would prefer it softer and comes here on a run of 12 defeats stretching back almost two years, hence him now being 13lbs lower than his last win.

Top of the Bill has a win and a place from 6 over hurdles after placing in four bumpers. He did win over 3m at Chepstow on good to soft in December and although 5lbs higher than that win, he's a class lower.

Sacre Coeur finally got off the mark over hurdles in the UK last time out, but has won over hurdles and fences in France. He's only up 3lbs for that win, but I am slightly concerned at his failure to get round in four of twelve starts.

Astigar is lightly raced under today's conditions, but has a line of red on Instant Expert after failed to win any of five starts. His best run came when second here a year ago, but that was over a trip some 5.5f shorter than today and he struggled to see 2m5f out last time.

Oscars Moonshine has 3 wins and a place from ten over hurdles, but the three wins came in a 12-day purple patch in October 2020, after having failed to make the frame in his first five career starts. He was off a year after those wins and was a runner-up on his return in October '21. He then didn't race for 11 months and has been beaten by 15L and 17L in two races this season. He gets the trip but isn't in form.

Sporting Ace looks the one to beat for me so far and has run consistently well over the last 13 months, finishing 21 in two bumpers and then 11223 over hurdles. Trip is no issue with a 3m win under his belt and a mark of 115 doesn't look stiff. Down 3f today which will also help.

Longshanks is 1 from 5 over hurdles and 1 from 8 over fences and was pulled up & then unseated his rider in his last two chases, before reverting to hurdles at Wincanton in January. He was in the process of going well before falling two out and this inability to complete allied with a step up in trip gives me grounds for concern.

What About Time won on hurdles debut (2m4f) at Uttoxeter in Mid-November 2020 and then had almost a year off followed by two indifferent runs inside a month. Another 11 month break followed and he returned to finish just 8th of 12 at Ludlow last November, beaten by 22 lengths, but showed some positive signs when an 8.5 length runner-up on Boxing Day at Huntingdon. Has potential but lacks consistency.

Buckhorn George hasn't completed six of his last eight starts including a fall here in November 2021 and five times pulled up, He was second at Fontwell almost a year ago, but that run looks to be the exception to the norm in a run of results reading PFPP2P4P (the 4 was 4th of 5, beaten by 19 lengths)

Chloe's Court won here over 2m6f on soft ground just over two years ago, but has only won a total of 2 races from 25 attempts. Her record at Class 4 is abject and she comes here off the back of a 40+ lengths defeat at Hereford.

So far, the three I'm most interested in are (alphabetically) Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill and if recent outings are anything to go by, Sacre Coeur and Top of the Bill will have to launch their bids for victory from the back of the field, whereas Sporting Ace is expected to be one of the front-runners...

...in a type of race that has served front-runners very well indeed...

Summary

Alphabetically Sacre Coeur, Sporting Ace and Top of the Bill are the three I'd want against the field here and with Sporting Ace being in the best progressive form of the three and also having the most suitable pace profile, he'd be the one to beat in my eyes. He's currently 9/2 with Bet365 with the other pair at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively in a tight market.



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2023 Haldon Gold Cup Trends

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The focus is on Exeter racecourse on Tuesday 2nd November as they stage the 2022 Haldon Gold Cup Chase – a Grade 2 limited handicap run over 2m1f.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2022 renewal, this year run on Friday 3rd November.

Did you know that 15 of the last 21 winners were French-bred, while ALL of the last 21 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Recent Haldon Gold Cup Winners

2022 - GREANETEEN (7/2)
2021 – ELDORADO ALLEN (9/2)
2020 - GREANETEEN (15/8 fav)
2019 - JANIKA (5/2 fav)
2018 – GOD’S OWN (7/2)
2017 - POLITOLOGUE (5/2 fav)
2016 – SIR VALENTINO (10/1)
2015 – VIBRATO VALTAT (5/2 fav)
2014 – GOD’S OWN (8/1)
2013 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2012 – CUE CARD (5/6 fav)
2011 – MEDERMIT (7/2)
2010 – TCHICO POLOS (3/1)
2009 – PLANET OF SOUND (4/1 fav)
2008 – ASHLEY BROOK (8/1)
2007 – PABLO DU CHARMIL (9/2)
2006 – IMPEK (9/1)
2005 – MONKERHOSTIN (10/1)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (6/5 fav)
2003 – EDREDON BLEU (7/2)
2002 -  EDREDON BLEU (10/1)

Haldon Gold Cup Betting Trends

21/21 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
20/21 – Having their 1st run of the new season
19/21 – Officially rated 150 or higher
18/21 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m2f before
17/21 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
15/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
14/21 – Carried 10-9 or more
13/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/21 – Ran at either Aintree (6) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
11/21 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/21 – Had won just 3 previous times over fences
8/21 – Unplaced favourites
7/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Had won over fences at Exeter before
6/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/21 – Carried 11-10
5/21 – Aged 7 years-old
4/21 – Won their last race
3/21 – Trained by Tom George
2/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 5/1

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Haldon Gold Cup Trends

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The focus is on Exeter racecourse on Tuesday 3rd November as they stage the 2020 Haldon Gold Cup Chase – a Grade 2 limited handicap run over 2m1f.

In recent years the likes of Cue Card and Politologue have used this race to get their seasons started!

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year run on Tuesday 3rd November.

Did you know? 12 of the last 18 winners were French-bred, while ALL of the last 18 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

 

Recent Haldon Gold Cup Winners

2019 - JANIKA (5/2 fav)
2018 – GOD’S OWN (7/2)
2017 - POLITOLOGUE (5/2 fav)
2016 – SIR VALENTINO (10/1)
2015 – VIBRATO VALTAT (5/2 fav)
2014 – GOD’S OWN (8/1)
2013 – SOMERSBY (9/2)
2012 – CUE CARD (5/6 fav)
2011 – MEDERMIT (7/2)
2010 – TCHICO POLOS (3/1)
2009 – PLANET OF SOUND (4/1 fav)
2008 – ASHLEY BROOK (8/1)
2007 – PABLO DU CHARMIL (9/2)
2006 – IMPEK (9/1)
2005 – MONKERHOSTIN (10/1)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (6/5 fav)
2003 – EDREDON BLEU (7/2)
2002 -  EDREDON BLEU (10/1)

Haldon Gold Cup Betting Trends

18/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m2f before
17/18 – Having their 1st run of the new season
16/18 – Officially rated 150 or higher
15/18 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
12/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/18 – Carried 10-9 or more
11/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/18 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Had won just 3 previous times over fences
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Had won over fences at Exeter before
5/18 – Carried 11-10
4/18 – Aged 7 years-old
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Tom George
3/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/18 – Won their last race
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 5/1

 

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