Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/04/23 geegeez.co.uk

Hi guys, hope you all had a great Easter. I certainly did and I'm ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

1.15 Exeter
2.45 Exeter
4.00 Pontefract
6.45 Dundalk

Of all the 'free' races and those containing runners from The Shortlist, the 3.45 Exeter interests me most on what is frankly a pretty poor day of racing. Miss Fairfax and Raddon Top go in this one and it's a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Ballydisco and Gerico Ville both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three.Miss Fairfax, Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Biowavego are all two from four and Come On Gruff is two from five, whilst Skandiburg and Ballymagroarty Boy are winless in 15 & 20 races respectively.

Most of these raced at this grade last time out, but the top two in the weights, Skandiburg & Miss Fairfax both drop a class here, as does So Said I. Hauraki Gulf is on handicap debut and it's only the second handicap outing for both Miss Fairfax and Ioupy Collonges.

Only three of this field (Miss Fairfax, So Said I & Raddon Top) have won at Exeter before and all have won over course and distance, whilst Skandiburg, Ballymagroarty Boy, Gerico Ville, Ballydisco and Biowavego have all won at this kind of trip elsewhere.

Most of the field have been out for a run inside the last five weeks or so, but both Come On Gruff and Biowavego were last seen in November of last year and might well need the run.

We have two mares in the race (Miss Fairfax & So Said I), seven previous good to soft winners and all bar Hauraki Gulf have won at Class 4, according to Instant Expert...

...where Ballymagroarty Boy definitely looks the weak link with a line of red. Skandiburg hasn't gone well on good to soft and prefers a shorter trip, whilst Hauraki Gulf's sole win was at Class 5. Shortlisted horse Raddon Top will relish most of the conditions, but would really want a downpour to come, as his best form is on soft or heavy ground.

Miss Fairfax has some good numbers, though, as do Ioupy Collonges, Gerico Ville and Snipe off admittedly small sample sizes.

This type of race has previously tended to suit those wanting to set the pace...

...which, based on recent outings is a definite positive for the likes of Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Gerico Ville...

Summary

Fairly brief today, because I don't feel the need to dig too deep with a pair of outstanding candidates like Ioupy Collonges and Gerico Ville and I'd be rally surprised if they weren't the first two home. Both are in great form, both scored well on Instant Expert and both will be right up with the pace. Ioupy is the 3/1 fave with Gerico offering more value at 6's and I don't think they're that far apart personally and I'd probably side with Gerico Ville today.

He's proven at this trip and beyond and is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Ioupy Collinges was beaten by over five lengths off this mark last time out and is asked for an extra 3½f here. He will win handicap races for sure, but I'm not convinced this one will be his first.

As for an E/W bet, So Said I might fit the bill at 16/1 with most bookies paying four places. She clearly needed the run at Chepstow last month after more than a year off but prior to her break, she had three wins and a place from her previous five outings, including a course and distance win here. She stays three miles, likes some cut in the ground and if up with the pace as expected could well hang on for a place.

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