Posts

2019/20 Football Season Preview / Bets

2019/20 Football Season Betting Preview

As has become traditional, each season I share my long-term positions for the new footy campaign. And in this post I'll reveal the teams which carry my hopes - and cash - for 2019/20. Also, further down, you'll find details of the Geegeez Super League Fantasy Football competition for those of you who like to get involved with such things.

Before all of that, though, how did last season's wagers fare? You can review last year's post here

And the returns were as follows:

I actually did two trixies last year, meaning I duplicated the Huddersfield relegation/Sunderland promotion double. On the face of it that didn't end well, with the Black Cats suffering stoppage time heartache in the playoff final. But the situation had presented an easy hedge opportunity, which was taken. A loss of £62.50 on the £400 stake for both trixies became a decent profit of £300, thanks entirely to Sunderland taking the lead in that Wembley disappointment.

 

This is exactly why I love the promotion markets: even if you're only nearly right, you still have a solid chance of a hedge during the playoffs. Obviously it's easier if your team makes the playoff final, and easier still if they go in front, but you get the idea.

**

To this term, and my approach remains the same: a team from the Premier League to be relegated, a team from League One to be promoted, and one or both of two teams from League Two - where there is an extra promotion place - also to go up a division.

Those four teams are played in a perm trixie, that is doubles and trebles (seven bets).

Here's who I'm siding with...

Premier League Relegation

Brighton have the dubious honour of being my pick to get dumped from the top league. I know a lot of Seagulls fans and am unlikely to be endearing that tiny subset who care a jot for my opinion on round-ball-related wagering; but the facts are clear:

- Manager Graham Potter's only exposure to English football management is one season at Swansea where he steered the Welsh side to tenth place. Given that they were one of the favourites and he had almost the entire pre-season to assemble his squad, that's hardly stellar.

- Top scorer last season, with a perfectly respectable 13, was Glenn Murray. The former Bournemouth (and many other clubs) front man will be 36 next month.

- Brighton's 14 points in the second half of the season was better only than Huddersfield (relegated, bottom) with the next two poorest teams in that 19-match ranking also getting relegated.

The untested in Britain Leandro Trossard looks an interesting acquisition, as does former Championship striker, Neal Maupay; but they have zero Premier League experience between them, a problem which proved beyond recent big name signings such as Andone, Jahanbaksh and Balogun. That trio could improve for their first season in the top English flight, but the south coast side were woeful in the latter part of last term, almost getting collared by Cardiff at the death.

As always, it's how you feel about the promoted sides that makes the market, and I'm fairly positive about both Villa and Norwich: the former has spent liberally and - in places - shrewdly, the latter I feel has a fair amount of under-rated class even if they will need to be not nearly so reliant on potential one season wonder, Teemu Pukki. Sheffield United may try to play a very attacking style of football - they've certainly acquired plenty of forwards - and, while that could go calamitously wrong, they've a chance of dodging the drop.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Either way, I reckon there are two established Prem sides treading on eggshells and I'm betting that Brighton are one of them.

League One Promotion

I'll keep this (a little) briefer. Portsmouth are my pick. They were arguably the best attacking team in the division last season, with the possible/probable exception of champions, Luton. But their second half performance was sub-par. They've lost key players (notably player of the season, Matt Clarke) but look to have recruited well, especially in the wide positions.

An opening day 1-0 defeat at Shrewsbury barely tells the story: they had 15 shots compared to the hosts' three, and 61% of the possession to back it up. Of course, you need to hit the goal to score so a 20% on target ratio tells the tale. The late dismissal of new boy Ross McCrorie wouldn't have helped either, but they steadied the ship - and how! - in midweek with a 3-0 thumping of Birmingham City (50% shots on target) in the League Cup.

They ought to be a force.

I'm against Sunderland who I don't believe have nearly enough creativity. They were woefully unimaginative last term and are reliant on 33 year old Aiden McGeady to an alarming degree. Relegated Ipswich may find this level far more to their liking but it's hard to pick out another side with similar credentials to those referenced already. Which is not, of course, to say that there is not one, or indeed many.

League Two Promotion

Three auto promo places and another via the playoffs means it makes sense to have two stabs at the promotion market in this division. Salford are well (and famously) financed by the ex-ManU mob and their mates, and the Conference runners-up were tempting to make a double jump which has been achieved a number of times in recent memory. Graham Alexander is a top manager at this level, too.

But I ended up siding with Plymouth and Mansfield, the best of last season's relegated sides and the best placed un-promoted side from this division respectively.

There's a fair chance Plymouth are just too good for these even allowing for the loss of a handful of their best players, particularly Ladapo. But they've got ready made L2 experience in the form of last season's second placed team's manager, Ryan Lowe, and a number of his promoted players. That mob have 'stayed behind' because of the saddening financial issues at Bury. It is to be hoped that club can be saved - as a Cherries fan I've been there and it's horrible, but where we are now shows what is possible if fending off the immediate - but right now they're being asset stripped as players look to secure their career futures. Argyle got their season off to a flyer with a clinical 3-0 away win at Crewe, though the game was a good bit closer than the scoreline suggests.

Mansfield were favourites to win this section last campaign and ran a meritorious fourth. However, the manner of their failure to get promoted - beaten on the last day by MK Dons, who went up at the Stags' expense; and then losing on penalties in the playoff semi-final - may have left some wounds. Nevertheless, it is hard to escape the feeling that a repeat of last season's efforts will be enough to get them in the three this time around. They have goals galore in their line up and showed resilience to come back from a 2-0 deficit at half time and grab a 2-2 draw on opening day, all the more so when down to ten men for most of the last half hour. Again, though, they were second best on the match stats and will need to step forward. That should happen as the new faces familiarise themselves with their team-mates and tactics.

The wager

All teams are around the 2/1 mark - or were before last weekend. They remain similar prices overall.

It's a bit of faff to separate out the constituent bets in the perm trixie but it does make a significant difference to the bottom line should they all, or even any of them, cop.

[Note, I split the treble into £20 and £30 bets as a small odds boost was available up to a score]

 

 

 

Total stake of £350 which, for a whole season of entertainment, is a sum I'm prepared to invest; especially as in the last three seasons I've managed one all-correct perm trixie which returned £3,500 and last year's profit of circa £300 from the hedge. But obviously you can do £5 lines (£35) or 50p lines (£3.50) or simply laugh at my terribly bland selections... 😉

**

Fantasy Football: Geegeez Super League

With the Premier League starting on Friday night - gotta love a bit of Friday night Prem action - it's time to mention the Geegeez Super League Fantasy Football...

If you've entered in previous years, and you've got a team in the official FFL game, you'll be automatically entered into the league (there's already 200 odd teams in the league!) - do check though, just in case.

Here's how to join in

Go to https://fantasy.premierleague.com

Create your team, then...

Go to https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/join/private and enter this code:

ohc84f

That should be you registered as part of the league. And there's a prize!

The winner will receive the indescribable kudos of being the Geegeez Super League Champion 2019/20.

Oh, and an annual Gold subscription, worth £297. Whoop!

So get yourself entered today - remember, the season starts this FRIDAY EVENING, not Saturday lunchtime as usual.

Good luck!

Matt

Bumper Friday Round Up

The Geegeez Geegee...

The Geegeez Geegee...

It's ages since I've done a bit of a round up / catch up post, so let's put that right today. In a packed post, I'll share news on all geegeez' current racehorses syndicate interests, some more footy bets I've struck, the best footy bookie offers, and an update on the Geegeez Super League Fantasy Football competition. Let's get cracking...

...and we start with some racing, naturally enough. As most of you will know, from time to time I syndicate racehorses to allow geegeez readers (and me) to get closer to the sport we all love. And I thought I'd update you on our current team.

 

The Geegeez Geegee

For obvious reasons, I was hoping this lad would show some ability and, fortunately, he has. After a slow start to his training career at Anthony Honeyball's Dorset stable, when illness delayed his racecourse début by four months, he really made up for lost time. Indeed, since that first run - a staying on third of eight in a National Hunt Flat race which has worked out really well (20% winners, 37% placed horses from subsequent runners) - TGG as we call him has run another eleven times, testament to what a hardy beast he is, touch wood.

His next start, last June, was a win in a four runner NH Flat race. But, far from being an easy race, the second horse has gone on to win three of his six races (placed in another run, and fell when clear in another), and the third has gone on to win once and place once from two starts. The fourth hasn't run since.

TGG then had a rest through the summer, and came back needing his first few runs, from both a fitness and experience perspective. He was running in novice hurdles and working towards his first handicap hurdle run.

That handicap bow was over three miles and a furlong in February this year, and we were very hopeful for him. He won. At 11/1. I, and many others in the syndicate, had backed him at around half those odds with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker. I, and many others, were delighted on lots of levels, mainly the thrill of seeing our boy get home in front.

He's run four times since, and on each occasion he's had perfectly legitimate excuses for valiant defeat. Third on his next two starts, both over three miles and more, it suddenly dawned on us - actually, I'd been saying to the trainer all along!!! 😉 - that he probably wasn't quite getting home over that far. His win was in lower grade and against poorer animals, but even then he was all out at the finish.

So, we dropped him in trip for a fair race at Worcester in early May. In a big field of 16, he was absolutely cantering coming to the last and looked sure to win... only to run through the wing of the hurdle. Aargh. If you haven't seen that race, the video is here. (You'll need a skybet account to view it).

No matter, for we were now convinced that we'd found his trip - and with it some further improvement. We rushed him out quickly, just five days later, for another competitive handicap hurdle at Southwell. But we were to incur more bad luck as, this time, TGG got horribly shuffled back on the home turn, to just about last.

Incredibly, when seeing daylight, he scorched home to finish second beaten three lengths. It was an impressive burst of pace, and confirmed unequivocally to us that he WOULD have won his previous contest, when going much the best before running out. That video is here.

Of course, it's frustrating to know you're the best horse in the race and not win, but that's the game to some degree. TGG has had a nice break over the summer - he ran a dozen times in thirteen months prior to that - and has come back into training with a bit of a belly (or 'condition' as it's called!)

He's pleasing his trainer again, and we still think he's well handicapped. At least, I still think he's well handicapped, and we hope he might be ready to race towards the end of September, all other things being equal.

 

Nonagon

A much smaller group is involved in this flat horse trained in the north by Wilf Storey. He was a very cheap buy, and four of us (Jim, Pete and Charlie being the other three) own half. It's fair to say he'll never be a world beater but, since the turn of the year, he has started to mature into a horse that can win a race or two at the lower end of the scale.

We've had no luck whatsoever so far, but we've learned enough about what he needs in terms of conditions to be a lot more hopeful going forwards. Having started on fast ground over five furlongs, we are now campaigning him on soft ground over ten furlongs!!

He's been second in a handicap already, and would surely have been closer on Monday but for the ground drying out markedly and an absolutely abject amateur jockey allotted to us. If you think that's harsh, you can make your own mind up when you watch that race here.

Nonagon is entered again on Tuesday at Carlisle - exact same race conditions as this week - but we want soft ground and it doesn't look like there will be enough rain for us. Still, when he gets his conditions - soft ground and nine or ten furlongs - we'll be pretty hopeful of a solid run.

His two runs on soft side of good in handicaps he's finished 24, and that '4' really should have been at least a 3 and probably another 2.

 

'East Wing'

'East Wing' (name in inverted commas because he's not yet been officially named by the syndicate) is our newest lad. He's an exciting prospect and Anthony Honeyball, who trains him, is very pleased with his progress so far.

The 16 shares in him sold out in two days at the beginning of last month, in response to this post. Since then, unfortunately, one person has had to drop out, meaning there is a single share available in this untried and exciting National Hunt prospect.

If you might be interested, please do take a look at this post, and reply to me ASAP at info@geegeez.co.uk

He's been broken in now, and has done some steady cantering - led up the gallops by our own The Geegeez Geegee. He's also popped over a couple of poles in the indoor school to further his education.

The plan for him will be to bring towards race readiness at around the turn of the year. I can't wait to see how he progresses! 🙂

Again, if you might be interested, please do take a look at this post, and contact me ASAP at info@geegeez.co.uk with any questions.

*

Aside from the geegeez syndicates, I am currently in one other syndicate, with Julia Feilden. The horse is called Dakota City, and he came over from France via the Tattersalls sales in Newmarket. In seven runs since April, he'd looked out of love with the game for much of it. But Julia, Ross, John and the team have worked their magic.

They felt he was keeping something for himself and tried working him in a visor. All of a sudden he picked up. His first run in a visor - at the end of July - coincided with a striking three length victory that included an Arazi-esque circling of the field, from last to a clear first. Here's that incredible video:

That was as exciting a run as I've ever seen from a horse I've been involved with, but the fear was it was a fluke. Well, he only went and did the same thing last Saturday evening! Alas, this time the move was too early (over a longer trip) and he was closed down by a well handicapped filly in the last half furlong.

Still, he retains plenty of promise and should go close to winning again on the all weather soon.

****

Changing tack completely, the football season starts tomorrow (tonight if you're a fan of Brighton or Nottingham Forest), so it's your last chance to get your entries into the Geegeez Super League Fantasy Football competition. There are 203 entries at the moment, which means a bonus prize of £203 (and counting) for one lucky entry. As well as that, there's the main prize of a Lifetime subscription to Geegeez Gold for the outright winner.

And of course, there's the kudos of being named the 2015/16 Geegeez Super League Champion !

I've copied full details at the bottom of this post - so get your team in, 'toot sweet' (or tout de suite if you prefer). Good luck!

*

Before you read that, and in case you've already entered thus having no need to re-read it, I thought I'd share a few more of the footy bets I've struck for the season. I admit it, it's been a very good year on the betting front (Gold is naturally a huge factor in that), and I've had more interests in the footy than I normally would as a consequence. My main season bets can be seen in this post, but I've added some further strings to my bow, as follows:

.

Top Team Scorer 'Sweet Sixteen'

The 'Sweet Sixteen' is a bet comprised of five selections, making up ten trebles, five fourfolds, and a fivefold accumulator. I've chosen five players who I hope will top score for their teams. There's only one real risk in there - Giroud at Arsenal - and the rest need mainly to steer clear of injury and suspension, I think... Anyway, it should emit a lot of interest and fun throughout the season:

topteamscorer1 topteamscorer2

All correct pays something like three thousand, so for now I have hope...

.

Top Goalscorer

Elsewhere, and I couldn't resist Paddy Power's offer of a £2 bet every time my top scorer bet notched. So I backed two with them, as follows:

topscorerpaddy

Every time Giroud or Aguero scores, I'll get a £2 bet. If they score 30 between them (last year they scored 40, and the year before 33) I'll get £60 in free bets with two chances of copping the top scorer pot as well. That's a spot of value, I'd say.

These are on top of bets already on Christian Benteke (16/1) and Callum Wilson (80/1). And I couldn't resist a bet on Wilson to be top English scorer at 33/1. Ideally, I'd have liked to have backed him each way, but the price was half that in the win only market and that didn't appeal. I'm pretty confident this one will finish up in the 'value loser' pile, but I had to have an interest in a player I think could be very, very good.

wilsontopenglishscorer

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Forecasts, Tricasts, and Superfectas, Oh My!

As you can see on the Paddy ticket above, I've also had a bet on Chelsea and Arsenal finishing first and second in either order. That's just the start of some reckless - and indeed feckless - top order prediction wagering, as follows:

skybet1 skybet2 skybet3

.

And I've backed the Chelsea - Arsenal straight forecast at 15/2 as well:

che_ars_sfc

.

All of the above are varying strengths of similar opinions, and it will take very little for me to be wrong enough to lose on all fronts! But, conversely, if I'm right about City having a shocker, or Giroud outscoring Sanchez, or Wilson showing his England credentials, then I ought to be looking at a nice few quid.

Regardless, spreading what is for me a decent amount of wagering juice across an array of propositions, most of which will provide entertainment for eight to ten months, is something that defines my betting approach. It's based on value, opinions, and fun!

Here's hoping for a winner somewhere in the midst of it!

Matt

p.s. the FFL Comp closes tomorrow (Saturday) lunchtime at 11:45 GMT - full details below. Do join us!

**

FFL COMPETITION DETAILS START HERE

1st Prize

The outright winner will receive a Lifetime subscription to Geegeez Gold, worth £399.60 (invaluable really, but that's the sale price when it's available). That includes Stat of the Day, the Gold racecards, form tools and reports - full unfettered ongoing access. Pretty nifty, eh?

*

BONUS Prize

The highest placed player to have entered the bonus competition will scoop one pound in cash for every entry in the Geegeez Super League.

Last year, there were about 250 people, and this year there are already 96 people signed up before I've even mentioned it on here! So that's £96 and rising - I'd imagine it will end up around £350, but that's no more than a guess on my part. So, how do you enter the bonus competition?

Simple - open a new account and place a bet. When you do this, you will get some free bets from the bookie in question, and some of them will compensate geegeez for making the introduction, which is hopefully good for everyone.

Of course, it's absolutely up to you whether you want to take part in the bonus competition or not. Either way, you'll be in with a chance of claiming the main prize. (If you're already a Lifetime Gold subscriber, we'll refund your subscription!)

To be absolutely clear, if you don't want to open a new account, fine. And if you have all the accounts below already, also fine. But if you do/can grab some free bet goodness from an offer that suits you, you'll be eligible for the bonus prize. Claro? Great!

OK, so here's the step-by-step for entering...

How to Enter the Main Competition

To enter your team in the Fantasy Football League, follow these (fairly) simple instructions:

1. Register and choose a team here

2. Once you've selected your team, go to My Leagues

3. Click Join A League, then Choose 'Private League'

4. Enter this code: 1564019-365693 and click the 'Join Private League' button

5. That's it, you're in - good luck!

*

How to Enter the Bonus Competition

To qualify for the bonus competition, where one player will receive a shiny quid (or paper money equivalent!) for every player registered in the Geegeez Super League as at 12:45pm Saturday 8th August, please follow the instructions below:

1. Register for one of the free bet-generating new accounts below, and place a bet of at least £5

2. Email info@geegeez.co.uk with the name of the bookie you registered with, so I can confirm it against my records

3. Make sure you've entered the main competition above

4. That's it, you're in - good luck!

Each bookmaker in the list will offer you either a risk-free or matched first bet, but, please, do check the terms and conditions yourself.

*

*MBAFB = Money back as a free bet

*

1 bet.365

New accounts:

Open an account and your first deposit will be matched up to £200 when using the banner below

bet365

*

2 Betfai.r Sportsbook

Football specials:

1. Bet £25 on top goalscorer market and get a £5 free bet for each match that your player scores in, up to October 31st

2. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 5+ acca (£25 max, 4/1 min cumulative odds, 1/5 min single odds)

New accounts:

Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets when signing up through the banner below

*

3 B,win.com

New accounts:

Get up to £30 matched bet when you open a bwin account through the link below.

BwinCom £30 Matched Bet

*

4 C.oral

Football specials:

1. Bet £20 on Premier League outright market and get a £5 free bet for each match that your team wins in August

2. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 6-8 team acca (£25 max)

New accounts:

Bet £5, Get £20 when registering through the banner below

*

5 10.bet

Football specials:

1. Deposit and bet up to £40 using code 20NEW and get a 50% (i.e. up to £20) bonus added to your balance (rollover requirements apply)

2. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 4+ team acca (£50 max, rollover requirements apply, see T's & C's)

New accounts:

Get a 50% deposit match up to £200 (i.e. on a deposit of £400). Must click the banner below and use bonus code FD100.

*

6 Ladbroke.s

Football specials:

1. If your correct first goalscorer bet nets in the first 25 minutes get double the odds

New accounts:

Get a matched bet of up to £50 when you open a new account through the below banner, using bonus code F50


*

7 PaddyPower

Football specials:

1. Bet £20 on Premier League top scorer market and get a £2 free bet each time he scores ALL SEASON!

2. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 5+ team acca (£50 max)

New accounts:

Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets when you register through the banner below


*

8 Sky.bet

Football specials:

1. Bet £25 in a week on any sport and get a £5 free bet each week (opt in to Sky Bet Club required)

New accounts:

Bet £5, Get £20 in free bets. Click the banner below to sign up.

*

9 Victor

Football specials:

1. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 5+ team 'Both Teams To Score' acca (£25 max)

New accounts:

Up to £50 matched bet when signing up through the banner below.

*

10 WilliamHill

Football specials:

1. If your goalscorer selection is subbed off with the bet still open, get his replacement at the same odds

2. MBAFB* if one team lets you down in a 6+ team acca (£50 max)

3. MBAFB* if your first scorer scores 2nd (£50 max)

New accounts:

Bet £10, Get £20 Free Bets when you use the banner below


*

Fantasy Football: Join The Geegeez SuperLeague

With just four days to the Premier League kick off, it's that time again. Yes, we're all managers and have the opportunity to spend a hundred million quid of pretend money on jumped up, over-paid prima donnas (and the occasional hard-working pro) in order to accrue enough points to claim bragging rights over everyone else. Read more