Tag Archive for: Finley Marsh

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.20 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, all out to win by a nose) - nice to get the right side of a tight finish for a change 😉

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard, as is often the case...

...which tells us that our 4 yr old is well clear on the Geegeez ratings and was a runner-up last time out 11 days ago. he was a little unlucky to be caught very late on and beaten by a neck at this class, course and distance by a Kempton specialist dropping in class. 3lb claimer Finley Marsh retains the ride today and will seek to improve upon a decent 4 wins and 3 places from 9 starts on this horse on the A/W to date.

As you can see above, Finley has 2 wins and 3 other places from 10 for trainer Richard Hughes at this venue, whilst the bigger picture for the trainer/jockey combo is that in all A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, they are...

and they include the following ten angles of relevance today...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 54.6pts (+84%) from male runners
  • 15/55 (27.3%) for 61.8pts (+112.4%) at Class 5/6
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 57.9pts (+109.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 35.4pts (+72.3%) when Finley has claimed 3lbs
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 12.3pts (+42.6%) on horses placed LTO
  • 9/45 (20%) for 35.1pts (+77.9%) on Polytrack
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+194.6%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 58.1pts (+341.8%) in August/September
  • and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 11.1pts (+85.4%) in 2020 so far...

...whilst when Finley has claimed 3lbs on a Richard Hughes-trained male A/W handicapper in a 6-11 runner, Class 5/6 contest worth less than £5200, they are...

..including 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+235.1% ROI) with horses who made the frame last time out.

As for Richard Hughes' record with stayers, a closer inspection of his overall numbers reveals that since the start of 2018, his handicappers racing over 1m3.5f to 2m0.5f sent off at evens to 10/1 are...

...and these include...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 44.5pts (+66.5%) in fields of 5-13 runners
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 52.5pts (+89.1%) from those beaten LTO
  • 11/45 (24.4%) for 40.1pts (+89.2%) over 1m3.5f-1m4f
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 27.5pts (+76.4%) on the A/W
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 13pts (+38.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/25 (24%) for 8pts (+32%) on Polytrack
  • 6/24 (25%) for 28pts (+116.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 19.3pts (+128.7%) during September/October
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+98.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.9pts (+76%) for Finley Marsh
  • and 3 from 12 (25%) for 7.8pts (+65.2%) in 2020 so far

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Astrozone @ 9/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, ridden and hung left entering final furlong, stayed on to win by a length and a quarter)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Last week, Matt did a series of videos around the racecards and the report suite and today, I'm going to use that data to suggest a runner that should give us a run for our money, so let's just open the whole card first...

As you can see, that aside from jockey PJ McDonald's C5 icon, the only positive form for trainers and jockey comes for our runner.

The blue zeroes say that none of the field appear in any of my saved query tool angles, but two horses (ours and A Place to Dream) have a Red Report Angles number and with our pick featuring 7 times on my report angles, that's my way in for today, as opening that box up shows the following...

So, we see that the horse is 3 from 7 at this track : she's actually 2 from 4 over course and distance. We'll ignore trainer 30-day form, as we've only a week of results to rely upon, but it's clear that Richard Hughes had a decent week last week and he does well with horses coming back from a break.

Jockey Finley Marsh rides the course well and has a good record here when riding for Mr Hughes. Other than the horses for courses angles which doesn't carry the relevant figures, the A/E is over 1.4 for all my angles and the IV is 2.1 and above, these are excellent stats.

As for the race itself, this type of contest lends itself to horses drawn low that "like to get out" and the two horses that look most likely to lead are ours in stall 1 and a runner in stall 4. This is best illustrated by the Geegeez pace/draw heat map for the contest as follows...

So, all of the above considered, I think we're in a pretty strong position today. What I haven't touched upon is that although our mare was only fourth last time out, that was a Class 4 contest and she drops two classes to run here today She was bumped at the start of the contest and lost ground and as it was her fifth effort in less than seven weeks, it might also have been one race too many at the time and this graphic might also be of interest here...

More pictures than words today, but still plenty of numbers to consider...

...as I recommend...a 1pt win bet on Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor and Hills at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Astrozone @ 9/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, ridden and hung left entering final furlong, stayed on to win by a length and a quarter)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Last week, Matt did a series of videos around the racecards and the report suite and today, I'm going to use that data to suggest a runner that should give us a run for our money, so let's just open the whole card first...

As you can see, that aside from jockey PJ McDonald's C5 icon, the only positive form for trainers and jockey comes for our runner.

The blue zeroes say that none of the field appear in any of my saved query tool angles, but two horses (ours and A Place to Dream) have a Red Report Angles number and with our pick featuring 7 times on my report angles, that's my way in for today, as opening that box up shows the following...

So, we see that the horse is 3 from 7 at this track : she's actually 2 from 4 over course and distance. We'll ignore trainer 30-day form, as we've only a week of results to rely upon, but it's clear that Richard Hughes had a decent week last week and he does well with horses coming back from a break.

Jockey Finley Marsh rides the course well and has a good record here when riding for Mr Hughes. Other than the horses for courses angles which doesn't carry the relevant figures, the A/E is over 1.4 for all my angles and the IV is 2.1 and above, these are excellent stats.

As for the race itself, this type of contest lends itself to horses drawn low that "like to get out" and the two horses that look most likely to lead are ours in stall 1 and a runner in stall 4. This is best illustrated by the Geegeez pace/draw heat map for the contest as follows...

So, all of the above considered, I think we're in a pretty strong position today. What I haven't touched upon is that although our mare was only fourth last time out, that was a Class 4 contest and she drops two classes to run here today She was bumped at the start of the contest and lost ground and as it was her fifth effort in less than seven weeks, it might also have been one race too many at the time and this graphic might also be of interest here...

More pictures than words today, but still plenty of numbers to consider...

...as I recommend...a 1pt win bet on Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor and Hills at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!