Tag Archive for: Fontwell racecourse

Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24

Tuesday's racing comes from Fontwell, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Southwell.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

The money is at Southwell, but as it's the winter season, we do try to focus on the NH cards, so let's head to Fontwell for their six-race card on soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.00...(1) Malinka already has a win and two thirds from four starts over hurdles, scoring on heavy ground at Cartmel in August beating Torrent by more than three lengths. Torrent went on to win next time out and was third in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

(3) St Lukes Chelsea was a creditable fourth of eight over course and distance last time out, having previously been running over 6f/1m on the Flat/AW, so should be sharp between the hurdles.

(6) Playaway Girl is at least used to the trip, having raced in three bumpers this season already. She hasn't admittedly looked like winning any of them but the experience should stand her in good stead.

I fancy Malinka to take this ahead of St Lukes Chelsea.

Leg 2 @ 1.30...(1) High Treason won two of his last four over hurdles including on heavy ground over this track/trip in February and he made an encouraging chase debut at Newbury recently until a couple of errors put paid to any chance he might have had. He hadn't raced for 198 days, so should come on for the run and the jumping experience.

(3) Getaway Drumlee won a 2m2f heavy ground hurdle here back in March and was only beaten by just over three lengths on his chase debut at Huntingdon just over five weeks ago on his return from 200 days off. A former Irish PTP Winner, so should be able to jump and have stamina to boot.

(5) Brulure Noire is three from eight over fences, winning two from four last season, including last time out at Chepstow in April. This means he hasn't raced for 241 days but won on his seasonal bow in 2022 after 230 days off and again last year after 211 days, so I wouldn't use his absence as an excuse.

(7) Good Friday Fairy won this race last year as the sole finisher of five runners with the other four all failing to tackle the last fence. His last three over hurdles saw him finish 212 before results of 3121 over fences culminated in a seven length win at Uttoxeter in January, but was disappointing in two subsequent runs and now returns from 282 days off.

(8) Koenigsstern has however raced as recently as three weeks ago when a runner-up Plumpton on his second crack at fences four weeks after also finishing as runner-up on chase debut over 2m2f here at Fontwell. The ground was probably too quick last out and these softer conditions should suit him better.
Some good efforts in defeat in handicap hurdles/chases without looking ahead of his mark

Getaway Drumlee and High Treason would be my two against the field here and I'll also take Koenigsstern narrowly ahead of Brulure Noire.

Koenigsstern was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece so we're now on Brulure Noire as third pick.

Leg 3 @ 2.00...The top end of the card seems to be the area to focus upon...

(1) Eileen's Milan is the only runner in the field without a recent run, having had wind surgery during a five month absence following a tame effort at Newton Abbot in July. He had howeverr an really well over the same track/trip ten days earlier, finishing second of eleven just half a length off the pace so the potential is there as he drops in class for his handicap debut.

(2) Groom De Cotte was still a maiden after 18 starts (1 x NHF, 5 x chs & 12 x hrds) before winning here over 3m2f last time out, although he had made the frame in five of twelve over these smaller obstacles. He's up 10lbs for that win, but still runs off a lower mark than some of his best efforts to date, so he's not out of this.

(4) Chancellorstown has yet to make the frame in six starts, but was a runner-up in a four-horse race at Plumpton last time out, headed on the line and beaten by a nose behind a 5/6 favourite over 3m1f. That near miss should do him good and he might finish stronger over a shorter trip.

(5) Arctic Saint returned to the UK after four runs in Ireland and a four month break to finish third of ten over 2m4½f on his yard debut at Leicester three weeks ago. His jumping was a little sketchy at times and he'll need to improve here to get closer to winning.

Of these four, I see a fairly tight battle between Chancellorstown and Groom De Cotte and I prefer Eileen's Milan over Arctic Saint for third.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...(1) Captain Claude has been in the first three home in each of his last eight starts, including a 2m3½f win here at Fontwell over hurdles as well as two chases (2m6f & 3m2½f) Underfoot conditions look ideal and his jockey takes 10lbs off.

(2) Shillanavogy was a gallant runner-up on chase debut at Cartmel back in May but struggled at Ffos Las next/last time out three weeks ago. May come on for having had the run and the drop in trip might help.

(3) Pilgrims King was going great this year finishing 321214 before being pulled up at Uttoxeter in May and then again at Ffos Las six months later when last seen three weeks ago. That said, he too should come on for the run and he's now only 2lbs higher than his last win.

(5) Leading Swoop was a solid third of eight over 2m4f here last month on his return from 196-day break. He has yet to win after 12 starts but this might be his best chance, dropped another 2lbs.

(6) Valirann Gold also went well on his seasonal bow, finishing third of eight at Lingfield less than a fortnight ago, despite being off the track for more than seven months. prior to his break he finished 14323 in his last five over fences, winning on this track over 2m3½f on heavy ground. 2m might have been too sharp last time out, so the extra distance should be a plus for him and he'd be my likely winner ahead of Captain Claude with Leading Swoop a marginal preference over Pilgrims King for third.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...This surely has to be all about (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha who is 3 from 3 under Rules after two heavy ground bumper wins in the spring were followed by a facile eight length success on hurdles debut over at Ludlow almost five weeks ago. She hadn't run for 199 days, so she might well have even more to give and she should be taking this one to go 4/4.

Of the others, if there's a challenge to be had, it will probably come from (3) Eileen's Orders, (6) Katira Du Mestivel, (7) Miss Ireland and/or (9) Two Fingers West...

Eileen's Orders was third of fifteen on hurdling debut at Warwick three weeks ago and should come on for the run. Despite falling in a good position late on in an Irish PTP, Katira Du Mestivel showed enough to change hands for 110,000 Euro, suggesting there's something about this half-sister to four winners. Miss Ireland won a 2m2f bumper here on debut in September and found 2m at Ascot a little too sharp next/last time out. 2m3½f might suit her better tackling hurdles for the first time, whilst Two Fingers West makes a debut under Rules after finishing third and then first in two Irish PTP races after which she was sold for £38,000.

It's Hollygrove Cha Cha for me, of course, but I'll also take a chance on Katira Du Mestivel. Ben Pauling is a really good trainer and she was an expensive purchase, so i assume others know her better than I do. Of the others, I suspect Miss Ireland might well be better than the big price she'll go off at.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...(1) Summer In Milan was 4th in a bumper at Cork on debut and achieved the same result in the middle run of three over hurdles when running here at Fontwell 2m3½f in October. Could easily be involved but would need big improvement to win.

(2) Almuhit was useful on the Flat, winning at trips up to 2m1f, but we're still waiting for that form to be brought over to his hurdling career, but it does mean that his mark continues to drop.

(3) John Betjeman might well be the one to beat here despite a winless run stretching back 20 races over 20 months. He has made the frame in half of those 20 defeats and could be on a dangerous mark in a poor looking race now some 12lbs lower than his last win.

(9) Motazzen is 0/9 over hurdles, but was second of eleven at Uttoxeter back in July and went well for a good way before being outpaced late on at Southwell a fortnight ago. He pretty much led until the last hurdle before being ran out of it by faster finishers, eventually coming home 4th of 11. A similar effort over a longer trip puts him in the mix today.

(7) Je Suis Sacre hasn't shown much in three starts over shorter trips to acquire an opening mark of 83, but a step up in trip, a drop in class and a stack of stats suggest this might suit him better, even if he hasn't been seen for ten months.

That said, I still think the lay-off could be an issue and I'd be more inclined to go with (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Malinka & (3) St Lukes Chelsea

Leg 2: (3) Getaway Drumlee, (1) High Treason & (8) Koenigsstern (5) Brulure Noire

Leg 3: (4) Chancellorstown, (2) Groom De Cotte & (1) Eileen's Milan

Leg 4: (6) Valirann Gold, (1) Captain Claude & (5) Leading Swoop

Leg 5: (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha, (6) Katira Du Mestivel & (7) Miss Ireland

Leg 6: (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck everyone,
Chris



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/04/23

Apologies for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, but I was down at Wembley watching my beloved Bolton Wanderers win the much-coveted Papa Johns Football League Trophy and there'll be no column on Good Friday for Easter Saturday either, as I'm at a wedding all day, but now to what I am able to provide...

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, we have no qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.15 Thirsk

Now, I tend not to get involved too much with Flat racing in April, so it's a bit of a Hobson's Choice today, as I'll be looking at the 2.30 Fontwell, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f on heavy ground, that is soft in places. Dry weather is forecast, so the ground might ease...

BALLINGERS CORNER finished 133 in his three hurdles runs in the 20/21 season, but didn't run for over 22 months before making a chase (and handicap) debut at Ludlow a month ago. She didn't jump too well and went right, made a fair few errors and eventually was last home of seven beaten by 35 lengths.

BLACKO won a couple of Class 4 juvenile hurdles in his first two starts (Dec/Jan 19/20), but struggled raised in class thereafter. Switched to chasing in February this year, he landed a 3-runner Class 3 beginners' contest by 4 lengths at Leicester, but was last home of four at Leicester last time out.

HECTOR JAGUEN failed to make the frame in four over hurdles, but did finish third in his first two over fences in Jan/Feb of this year. It wasn't third time lucky though, as he unseated his rider at Plumpton three weeks ago and he now steps up in class.

SHAW'S CROSS also steps up in class here, but he does have the benefit of a win over a similar trip, when scoring over Plumpton's 2m1½f in January this year. has finished fourth in both runs since without looking like winning and a 35 length defeat a fortnight ago was disappointing. The step up in class can't help, surely?

BEN BRODY won three races and made the frame twice in a purple patch of form (3151P12) from mid-December 2020 to Boxing Day 2021. but has pretty much flopped since, with seven unplaced efforts reducing his mark down from 105 to today's 81. He runs from 1lb out of the handicap, but is rated some 18lbs lower than his last chase success.

In addition to the above details, both Blacko and Ben Brody are former soft/heavy ground winners, whilst Blacko is 2 from 3 in this grade. Ballingers Corner has also won at Class 4. We already know that Ben Brody is way below his last winning mark, but Blacko is now also 2lbs lower than when winning two starts ago!

Historically, the key to winning a race like this here at Fontwell has been to get out sharpish and control the tempo of the race from the front. Those that haven't been able to lead have been advised to stay as close to the leader(s) as possible if they want to make the frame and here's the breakdown...

...stats that, when you look at how this field have raced recently, would suggest Blacko and Ballingers Corner might well be the ones setting the fractions...

Summary

Small field with little to write about today, but Blacko ticks more boxes for me than the others. He won two starts ago and now runs off a lower mark, he's proved in this grade and won't be too concerned about the soft underfoot conditions. He's likely to be the front runner, which is ideal for Fontwell and at 6/1 (Bet365 @ 4.25pm), he looks quite long in a 5-horse race. You could take a quarter odds E/W, if you wanted, but that's not for me.

Hector Jaguen is the current 15/8 favourite, but he'd need to improve dramatically to win here in my opinion and whilst he might well put a decent effort in, the likes of the 7/2 Shaw's Cross at the bottom of the weights might just surprise him.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/03/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fontwell
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.20 Catterick
  • 5.35 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated the following runners on 3o-day form for me to consider...

...and of the free races and those appearing on my TS report, the 3.10 Fontwell looks the best on paper. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m 3f 67yds (after +18yd rail movement) on good ground that will be softer in places...

Bottom-weight Lifetime Legend was a seven-length winner at Catterick eight days ago and Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Kotmask and Pearly Island all had top three finishes last time out. Forever Blessed and Maclaine were both unplaced on handicap debuts LTO and now have a second crack with the latter having had wind surgery, whilst Guernesey makes a yard debut for Team Tizzard.

Pyramid Place's third place run three weekas ago was at Class 2, so he should appreciate a class drop, but Kotmask, Runswick Bay and Maclaine all step up one level from Class 4, whilst Lifetime Legend's LTO win was at Class 5. The card says that Krypton Gold is up three classes but that's from a run on the A/W, his last hurdles contest was at this level.

Forever Blessed has had a 15-week break and Runswick Bay has been off for ten weeks, but the rest have all raced in the last two months with Lifetime Legend's win eight days ago the most recent run of them all. We've no course and ditance winners, but those who have won here are Kotmask and Maclaine who have both won 2m2f hurdles here. Elsewhere, Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Runswick Bay, Pearly Island and Lifetime Legend have all been successful over similar trips to this one, whilst Instant Expert has the details re: going and class form...

...and it's a fairly uninspiring picture, I think I need to see place results before commenting further!

That looks much better, but Pearly Island looks very weak on both going and trip, Guernesey doesn't look as bad as on win form, but I'd like to focus on runners 3 to 6 here ie

Of these four...

PYRAMID PLACE has made the frame in 9 of 17 over hurdles, winning four times and has finished 3213 in his last four. He was raised 4lbs for his last win and despite a step up in class, only went down by two lengths at Wetherby recently. Down in class off the same has to put him in with a shout.

KRYPTON GOLD ran over 1m4f on the A/W most recently and that's not relly relevant to his chances here. His record over hurdles over the last year or so is very consistent finishing 21322235 with that last run being marred by a bad mistake two out when challenging. He doesn't win often enough and is probably as high in the weights as he can afford, but definite place potential.

KOTMASK might well be the one to beat here, he's unexposed after just seven starts from which he has made the frame four times, including two wins from his first two outings. He then found handicap racing a little tougher, but he has improved race by race, finishing 432 in his last three and he looks well placed for a big run here.

RUNSWICK BAY is arguably the weakest of this quartet, but has still placed in three of six over hurdles. part of the issue here is that since 6th April 2021, he has only raced three times (all over fences) and just twice since winning at Ludlow 17 months ago. He was off for over a year aftere that win and was beaten by 15 lengths on his comeback and was then pulled up when last seen on Boxing Day. No run for ten weeks now and hasn't tackled a hurdle in almost two years, he's hard to fancy up in class.

This type of race has been won in the past by those preferring to be further forward...

...and although there's no real pace in this field (suggesting a potential for a falsely run affair), Kotmask would be best suited of my highlighted quartet based on recent exploits...

...and it might well be left to Maclaine to set the fractions, whilst the other three I highlighted will all have work to do, if there is any pace.

Summary

After Instant Expert, I highlighted a 4-runner segment and i think that this is where I want to be with this group. I'd exclude Runswick Bay for reasons that should be obvious now and I'd probably have perennial placer Krypton Gold as least likely of my 1-2-3, leaving me to choose between Kotmask and Pyramid Place, with the former edging it on the pace aspect.

Kotmask is currently the 4/1 second favourite with Hills (only book open at 3.40pm), half a point longer than Pyramid Place and although two others are priced at 4/1 and 5/1, I think it's between these two here, meaning a small reverse forecast might pay off.

As for Krypton Gold, he's no stranger to making the frame and at 9/1, might well be the E/W play.



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Racing Insights, Monday 16/01/22

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.10 Hereford
  • 1.20 Punchestown
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.40 Hereford

And as that list contains an Irish race and two UK novices events, my dislike of both leads me to the 2.30 Fontwell. It might well be low on numbers and there may well be a very short priced fav, but we might get a nice placer for the forecast,  it's not a bad standard of race and it's a stayers' contest on tricky ground (a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on heavy ground) as follows...

Coolvalla is four from five and comes here on the back of three straight wins. Premier D'Troice was placed LTO but Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both failed to complete, whilst Echo Watt is the only one without a win in their last five runs (eleven to be precise!).

Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both raced at this grade three weeks ago, but Coolvalla & Premier D'Troice are up one class with Echo Watt up two levels. All five ran 21 or 26 days ago.

All bar bottom-weight Echo Watt have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst all bar Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have won here at Fontwell with both Premier D'Troice & Coolvalla successful over course and distance, a feat achieved by the latter LTO and three starts back.

Instant Expert highlights these and other stats...

As you can see, all have won on heavy ground, which is a start and the top two on the card seem to make most appeal here. Likely short-priced fav Coolvalla is only 1/4 on heavy, but has also won three of four on soft. Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have both struggled at this grade and are probably Class 4 horses at best.

COOLVALLA won just once from six races over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences, winning all three efforts culminating in a 19 lengths course and distance rout on Boxing Day. He has been stung with an 11lb rise as shown above, but I doubt that's enough to anchor him.

PREMIER D'TROICE was a runner up here over C&D back in May before scoring over this trip at Uttoxeter six weeks alter. Has struggled in a couple of races off 7/8lbs higher, but was third last time out off a mark of 117 (3 higher than his last win) and now eased another couple of pounds, could go well again.

PUTDECASHONTHEDASH hasn't raced much of late and last won almost a year when landing a Class 4 chase over this trip on good ground at Plumpton. He was then off the track for ten months and was pulled up on his return at Wincanton in early December. His only outing since then was on Boxing Day back at Wincanton where he fell halfway through the race.

ALMINAR was a surprising winner at Ffos Las two months ago when landing a 3m soft ground Class 4 chase despite not having raced for 17 months, but hasn't backed that run up in two starts since. He was 7th of 11, beaten by 31 lengths at Exeter and was subsequently puled up at Wincanton on Boxing Day in the same race that Putdecashonthedash was a faller.

ECHO WATT was a runner-up here in early November, 7 lengths behind Coolvalla, on his return from a nine month break, but unseated his rider next time out in what was the first of three Class 5 2m6½f/2m7½f chases at Lingfield. The middle race saw him second of twelve, beaten by nearly six lengths and most recently he was fourth of ten, more than twenty five lengths adrift. Up two classes and 3½f here on the back of eleven defeats, he'd be an unlikely winner for me even if he is now 27lbs better of with the fav.

Today's feature is, of course, pace and based upon a system of 1 = held-up, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led or was one of the leaders, this is how the field have raced in their last four respective starts...

Coolvalla's last three are his entire chase career and with a 3 and a 4 in there, I'd expect him to be prominent here, Premier D'Troice is essentially a hold-up horse, Putdecashonthedash will want to set the pace with Echo Watt racing prominently and Alminar little further back but ahead of Premier D'Troice. I know I've made a couple of assumptions/surmisations there, but I'd expect them to head out in this order...
4 : Putdecashonthedash / Coolvalla
3 : Echo Watt
2 : Alminar
1 : Premier D'Troice

A quick look at the Geegeez Pace Analyser for past similar races shows...

...that leaders fare much better than any other running style with hold-up horses having a good place record.

Summary

The pace analyser points to a leader winning the race and with Putdecashonthedash inspiring very little confidence from recent runs, that leaves us with the fav Coolvalla. And if the hold-up horses make the frame in these small fields, then that points towards Premier D'Troice, but does that fit in with the rest of my quick analysis?

Well, yes! They bring the best form to the table, scored best on Instant Expert, they're the two C&D winners and carry the least amounts of doubts of the five at play here.

I don't however, see Premier beating the fav, so in my eyes, it's the 4/6 Coolvalla beating the 7/1 Premier D'Troice. I don't like backing odd-on jollies, but that's up to you. I do like playing the exacta/forecast type of bets and at 7/1 in a five-horse race, Premier D'Troice could be an attractive E/W proposition.



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