Tag Archive for: Fontwell racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/04/23

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Apologies for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, but I was down at Wembley watching my beloved Bolton Wanderers win the much-coveted Papa Johns Football League Trophy and there'll be no column on Good Friday for Easter Saturday either, as I'm at a wedding all day, but now to what I am able to provide...

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, we have no qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.15 Thirsk

Now, I tend not to get involved too much with Flat racing in April, so it's a bit of a Hobson's Choice today, as I'll be looking at the 2.30 Fontwell, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f on heavy ground, that is soft in places. Dry weather is forecast, so the ground might ease...

BALLINGERS CORNER finished 133 in his three hurdles runs in the 20/21 season, but didn't run for over 22 months before making a chase (and handicap) debut at Ludlow a month ago. She didn't jump too well and went right, made a fair few errors and eventually was last home of seven beaten by 35 lengths.

BLACKO won a couple of Class 4 juvenile hurdles in his first two starts (Dec/Jan 19/20), but struggled raised in class thereafter. Switched to chasing in February this year, he landed a 3-runner Class 3 beginners' contest by 4 lengths at Leicester, but was last home of four at Leicester last time out.

HECTOR JAGUEN failed to make the frame in four over hurdles, but did finish third in his first two over fences in Jan/Feb of this year. It wasn't third time lucky though, as he unseated his rider at Plumpton three weeks ago and he now steps up in class.

SHAW'S CROSS also steps up in class here, but he does have the benefit of a win over a similar trip, when scoring over Plumpton's 2m1½f in January this year. has finished fourth in both runs since without looking like winning and a 35 length defeat a fortnight ago was disappointing. The step up in class can't help, surely?

BEN BRODY won three races and made the frame twice in a purple patch of form (3151P12) from mid-December 2020 to Boxing Day 2021. but has pretty much flopped since, with seven unplaced efforts reducing his mark down from 105 to today's 81. He runs from 1lb out of the handicap, but is rated some 18lbs lower than his last chase success.

In addition to the above details, both Blacko and Ben Brody are former soft/heavy ground winners, whilst Blacko is 2 from 3 in this grade. Ballingers Corner has also won at Class 4. We already know that Ben Brody is way below his last winning mark, but Blacko is now also 2lbs lower than when winning two starts ago!

Historically, the key to winning a race like this here at Fontwell has been to get out sharpish and control the tempo of the race from the front. Those that haven't been able to lead have been advised to stay as close to the leader(s) as possible if they want to make the frame and here's the breakdown...

...stats that, when you look at how this field have raced recently, would suggest Blacko and Ballingers Corner might well be the ones setting the fractions...

Summary

Small field with little to write about today, but Blacko ticks more boxes for me than the others. He won two starts ago and now runs off a lower mark, he's proved in this grade and won't be too concerned about the soft underfoot conditions. He's likely to be the front runner, which is ideal for Fontwell and at 6/1 (Bet365 @ 4.25pm), he looks quite long in a 5-horse race. You could take a quarter odds E/W, if you wanted, but that's not for me.

Hector Jaguen is the current 15/8 favourite, but he'd need to improve dramatically to win here in my opinion and whilst he might well put a decent effort in, the likes of the 7/2 Shaw's Cross at the bottom of the weights might just surprise him.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fontwell
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.20 Catterick
  • 5.35 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated the following runners on 3o-day form for me to consider...

...and of the free races and those appearing on my TS report, the 3.10 Fontwell looks the best on paper. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m 3f 67yds (after +18yd rail movement) on good ground that will be softer in places...

Bottom-weight Lifetime Legend was a seven-length winner at Catterick eight days ago and Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Kotmask and Pearly Island all had top three finishes last time out. Forever Blessed and Maclaine were both unplaced on handicap debuts LTO and now have a second crack with the latter having had wind surgery, whilst Guernesey makes a yard debut for Team Tizzard.

Pyramid Place's third place run three weekas ago was at Class 2, so he should appreciate a class drop, but Kotmask, Runswick Bay and Maclaine all step up one level from Class 4, whilst Lifetime Legend's LTO win was at Class 5. The card says that Krypton Gold is up three classes but that's from a run on the A/W, his last hurdles contest was at this level.

Forever Blessed has had a 15-week break and Runswick Bay has been off for ten weeks, but the rest have all raced in the last two months with Lifetime Legend's win eight days ago the most recent run of them all. We've no course and ditance winners, but those who have won here are Kotmask and Maclaine who have both won 2m2f hurdles here. Elsewhere, Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Runswick Bay, Pearly Island and Lifetime Legend have all been successful over similar trips to this one, whilst Instant Expert has the details re: going and class form...

...and it's a fairly uninspiring picture, I think I need to see place results before commenting further!

That looks much better, but Pearly Island looks very weak on both going and trip, Guernesey doesn't look as bad as on win form, but I'd like to focus on runners 3 to 6 here ie

Of these four...

PYRAMID PLACE has made the frame in 9 of 17 over hurdles, winning four times and has finished 3213 in his last four. He was raised 4lbs for his last win and despite a step up in class, only went down by two lengths at Wetherby recently. Down in class off the same has to put him in with a shout.

KRYPTON GOLD ran over 1m4f on the A/W most recently and that's not relly relevant to his chances here. His record over hurdles over the last year or so is very consistent finishing 21322235 with that last run being marred by a bad mistake two out when challenging. He doesn't win often enough and is probably as high in the weights as he can afford, but definite place potential.

KOTMASK might well be the one to beat here, he's unexposed after just seven starts from which he has made the frame four times, including two wins from his first two outings. He then found handicap racing a little tougher, but he has improved race by race, finishing 432 in his last three and he looks well placed for a big run here.

RUNSWICK BAY is arguably the weakest of this quartet, but has still placed in three of six over hurdles. part of the issue here is that since 6th April 2021, he has only raced three times (all over fences) and just twice since winning at Ludlow 17 months ago. He was off for over a year aftere that win and was beaten by 15 lengths on his comeback and was then pulled up when last seen on Boxing Day. No run for ten weeks now and hasn't tackled a hurdle in almost two years, he's hard to fancy up in class.

This type of race has been won in the past by those preferring to be further forward...

...and although there's no real pace in this field (suggesting a potential for a falsely run affair), Kotmask would be best suited of my highlighted quartet based on recent exploits...

...and it might well be left to Maclaine to set the fractions, whilst the other three I highlighted will all have work to do, if there is any pace.

Summary

After Instant Expert, I highlighted a 4-runner segment and i think that this is where I want to be with this group. I'd exclude Runswick Bay for reasons that should be obvious now and I'd probably have perennial placer Krypton Gold as least likely of my 1-2-3, leaving me to choose between Kotmask and Pyramid Place, with the former edging it on the pace aspect.

Kotmask is currently the 4/1 second favourite with Hills (only book open at 3.40pm), half a point longer than Pyramid Place and although two others are priced at 4/1 and 5/1, I think it's between these two here, meaning a small reverse forecast might pay off.

As for Krypton Gold, he's no stranger to making the frame and at 9/1, might well be the E/W play.



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Racing Insights, Monday 16/01/22

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.10 Hereford
  • 1.20 Punchestown
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.40 Hereford

And as that list contains an Irish race and two UK novices events, my dislike of both leads me to the 2.30 Fontwell. It might well be low on numbers and there may well be a very short priced fav, but we might get a nice placer for the forecast,  it's not a bad standard of race and it's a stayers' contest on tricky ground (a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on heavy ground) as follows...

Coolvalla is four from five and comes here on the back of three straight wins. Premier D'Troice was placed LTO but Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both failed to complete, whilst Echo Watt is the only one without a win in their last five runs (eleven to be precise!).

Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both raced at this grade three weeks ago, but Coolvalla & Premier D'Troice are up one class with Echo Watt up two levels. All five ran 21 or 26 days ago.

All bar bottom-weight Echo Watt have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst all bar Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have won here at Fontwell with both Premier D'Troice & Coolvalla successful over course and distance, a feat achieved by the latter LTO and three starts back.

Instant Expert highlights these and other stats...

As you can see, all have won on heavy ground, which is a start and the top two on the card seem to make most appeal here. Likely short-priced fav Coolvalla is only 1/4 on heavy, but has also won three of four on soft. Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have both struggled at this grade and are probably Class 4 horses at best.

COOLVALLA won just once from six races over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences, winning all three efforts culminating in a 19 lengths course and distance rout on Boxing Day. He has been stung with an 11lb rise as shown above, but I doubt that's enough to anchor him.

PREMIER D'TROICE was a runner up here over C&D back in May before scoring over this trip at Uttoxeter six weeks alter. Has struggled in a couple of races off 7/8lbs higher, but was third last time out off a mark of 117 (3 higher than his last win) and now eased another couple of pounds, could go well again.

PUTDECASHONTHEDASH hasn't raced much of late and last won almost a year when landing a Class 4 chase over this trip on good ground at Plumpton. He was then off the track for ten months and was pulled up on his return at Wincanton in early December. His only outing since then was on Boxing Day back at Wincanton where he fell halfway through the race.

ALMINAR was a surprising winner at Ffos Las two months ago when landing a 3m soft ground Class 4 chase despite not having raced for 17 months, but hasn't backed that run up in two starts since. He was 7th of 11, beaten by 31 lengths at Exeter and was subsequently puled up at Wincanton on Boxing Day in the same race that Putdecashonthedash was a faller.

ECHO WATT was a runner-up here in early November, 7 lengths behind Coolvalla, on his return from a nine month break, but unseated his rider next time out in what was the first of three Class 5 2m6½f/2m7½f chases at Lingfield. The middle race saw him second of twelve, beaten by nearly six lengths and most recently he was fourth of ten, more than twenty five lengths adrift. Up two classes and 3½f here on the back of eleven defeats, he'd be an unlikely winner for me even if he is now 27lbs better of with the fav.

Today's feature is, of course, pace and based upon a system of 1 = held-up, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led or was one of the leaders, this is how the field have raced in their last four respective starts...

Coolvalla's last three are his entire chase career and with a 3 and a 4 in there, I'd expect him to be prominent here, Premier D'Troice is essentially a hold-up horse, Putdecashonthedash will want to set the pace with Echo Watt racing prominently and Alminar little further back but ahead of Premier D'Troice. I know I've made a couple of assumptions/surmisations there, but I'd expect them to head out in this order...
4 : Putdecashonthedash / Coolvalla
3 : Echo Watt
2 : Alminar
1 : Premier D'Troice

A quick look at the Geegeez Pace Analyser for past similar races shows...

...that leaders fare much better than any other running style with hold-up horses having a good place record.

Summary

The pace analyser points to a leader winning the race and with Putdecashonthedash inspiring very little confidence from recent runs, that leaves us with the fav Coolvalla. And if the hold-up horses make the frame in these small fields, then that points towards Premier D'Troice, but does that fit in with the rest of my quick analysis?

Well, yes! They bring the best form to the table, scored best on Instant Expert, they're the two C&D winners and carry the least amounts of doubts of the five at play here.

I don't however, see Premier beating the fav, so in my eyes, it's the 4/6 Coolvalla beating the 7/1 Premier D'Troice. I don't like backing odd-on jollies, but that's up to you. I do like playing the exacta/forecast type of bets and at 7/1 in a five-horse race, Premier D'Troice could be an attractive E/W proposition.



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