SANDOWN – JUNE 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1
Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*
Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)
Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1
Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)
Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2
- Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)
Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)
Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)
Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)
Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years. Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure. The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading
Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.
Record of the two course winners in the opening race:
2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster. The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.
Record of the five course winners in the second event:
1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)
1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)
1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)
1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)
3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion. As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.
Record of the three course winners in the field:
1/4—Manson (good to firm)
1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)
3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation. Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word! The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”! Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy! My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!
Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later. Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)
4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective. There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)
5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt. Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH. I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.