Tix Picks, Tuesday 10/12/24

Tuesday's racing comes from Fontwell, Punchestown, Uttoxeter & Southwell.
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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Southwell...

The money is at Southwell, but as it's the winter season, we do try to focus on the NH cards, so let's head to Fontwell for their six-race card on soft ground starting with...

Leg 1 @ 1.00...(1) Malinka already has a win and two thirds from four starts over hurdles, scoring on heavy ground at Cartmel in August beating Torrent by more than three lengths. Torrent went on to win next time out and was third in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.

(3) St Lukes Chelsea was a creditable fourth of eight over course and distance last time out, having previously been running over 6f/1m on the Flat/AW, so should be sharp between the hurdles.

(6) Playaway Girl is at least used to the trip, having raced in three bumpers this season already. She hasn't admittedly looked like winning any of them but the experience should stand her in good stead.

I fancy Malinka to take this ahead of St Lukes Chelsea.

Leg 2 @ 1.30...(1) High Treason won two of his last four over hurdles including on heavy ground over this track/trip in February and he made an encouraging chase debut at Newbury recently until a couple of errors put paid to any chance he might have had. He hadn't raced for 198 days, so should come on for the run and the jumping experience.

(3) Getaway Drumlee won a 2m2f heavy ground hurdle here back in March and was only beaten by just over three lengths on his chase debut at Huntingdon just over five weeks ago on his return from 200 days off. A former Irish PTP Winner, so should be able to jump and have stamina to boot.

(5) Brulure Noire is three from eight over fences, winning two from four last season, including last time out at Chepstow in April. This means he hasn't raced for 241 days but won on his seasonal bow in 2022 after 230 days off and again last year after 211 days, so I wouldn't use his absence as an excuse.

(7) Good Friday Fairy won this race last year as the sole finisher of five runners with the other four all failing to tackle the last fence. His last three over hurdles saw him finish 212 before results of 3121 over fences culminated in a seven length win at Uttoxeter in January, but was disappointing in two subsequent runs and now returns from 282 days off.

(8) Koenigsstern has however raced as recently as three weeks ago when a runner-up Plumpton on his second crack at fences four weeks after also finishing as runner-up on chase debut over 2m2f here at Fontwell. The ground was probably too quick last out and these softer conditions should suit him better.
Some good efforts in defeat in handicap hurdles/chases without looking ahead of his mark

Getaway Drumlee and High Treason would be my two against the field here and I'll also take Koenigsstern narrowly ahead of Brulure Noire.

Koenigsstern was withdrawn whilst I was writing the piece so we're now on Brulure Noire as third pick.

Leg 3 @ 2.00...The top end of the card seems to be the area to focus upon...

(1) Eileen's Milan is the only runner in the field without a recent run, having had wind surgery during a five month absence following a tame effort at Newton Abbot in July. He had howeverr an really well over the same track/trip ten days earlier, finishing second of eleven just half a length off the pace so the potential is there as he drops in class for his handicap debut.

(2) Groom De Cotte was still a maiden after 18 starts (1 x NHF, 5 x chs & 12 x hrds) before winning here over 3m2f last time out, although he had made the frame in five of twelve over these smaller obstacles. He's up 10lbs for that win, but still runs off a lower mark than some of his best efforts to date, so he's not out of this.

(4) Chancellorstown has yet to make the frame in six starts, but was a runner-up in a four-horse race at Plumpton last time out, headed on the line and beaten by a nose behind a 5/6 favourite over 3m1f. That near miss should do him good and he might finish stronger over a shorter trip.

(5) Arctic Saint returned to the UK after four runs in Ireland and a four month break to finish third of ten over 2m4½f on his yard debut at Leicester three weeks ago. His jumping was a little sketchy at times and he'll need to improve here to get closer to winning.

Of these four, I see a fairly tight battle between Chancellorstown and Groom De Cotte and I prefer Eileen's Milan over Arctic Saint for third.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...(1) Captain Claude has been in the first three home in each of his last eight starts, including a 2m3½f win here at Fontwell over hurdles as well as two chases (2m6f & 3m2½f) Underfoot conditions look ideal and his jockey takes 10lbs off.

(2) Shillanavogy was a gallant runner-up on chase debut at Cartmel back in May but struggled at Ffos Las next/last time out three weeks ago. May come on for having had the run and the drop in trip might help.

(3) Pilgrims King was going great this year finishing 321214 before being pulled up at Uttoxeter in May and then again at Ffos Las six months later when last seen three weeks ago. That said, he too should come on for the run and he's now only 2lbs higher than his last win.

(5) Leading Swoop was a solid third of eight over 2m4f here last month on his return from 196-day break. He has yet to win after 12 starts but this might be his best chance, dropped another 2lbs.

(6) Valirann Gold also went well on his seasonal bow, finishing third of eight at Lingfield less than a fortnight ago, despite being off the track for more than seven months. prior to his break he finished 14323 in his last five over fences, winning on this track over 2m3½f on heavy ground. 2m might have been too sharp last time out, so the extra distance should be a plus for him and he'd be my likely winner ahead of Captain Claude with Leading Swoop a marginal preference over Pilgrims King for third.

Leg 5 @ 3.00...This surely has to be all about (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha who is 3 from 3 under Rules after two heavy ground bumper wins in the spring were followed by a facile eight length success on hurdles debut over at Ludlow almost five weeks ago. She hadn't run for 199 days, so she might well have even more to give and she should be taking this one to go 4/4.

Of the others, if there's a challenge to be had, it will probably come from (3) Eileen's Orders, (6) Katira Du Mestivel, (7) Miss Ireland and/or (9) Two Fingers West...

Eileen's Orders was third of fifteen on hurdling debut at Warwick three weeks ago and should come on for the run. Despite falling in a good position late on in an Irish PTP, Katira Du Mestivel showed enough to change hands for 110,000 Euro, suggesting there's something about this half-sister to four winners. Miss Ireland won a 2m2f bumper here on debut in September and found 2m at Ascot a little too sharp next/last time out. 2m3½f might suit her better tackling hurdles for the first time, whilst Two Fingers West makes a debut under Rules after finishing third and then first in two Irish PTP races after which she was sold for £38,000.

It's Hollygrove Cha Cha for me, of course, but I'll also take a chance on Katira Du Mestivel. Ben Pauling is a really good trainer and she was an expensive purchase, so i assume others know her better than I do. Of the others, I suspect Miss Ireland might well be better than the big price she'll go off at.

Leg 6 @ 3.30...(1) Summer In Milan was 4th in a bumper at Cork on debut and achieved the same result in the middle run of three over hurdles when running here at Fontwell 2m3½f in October. Could easily be involved but would need big improvement to win.

(2) Almuhit was useful on the Flat, winning at trips up to 2m1f, but we're still waiting for that form to be brought over to his hurdling career, but it does mean that his mark continues to drop.

(3) John Betjeman might well be the one to beat here despite a winless run stretching back 20 races over 20 months. He has made the frame in half of those 20 defeats and could be on a dangerous mark in a poor looking race now some 12lbs lower than his last win.

(9) Motazzen is 0/9 over hurdles, but was second of eleven at Uttoxeter back in July and went well for a good way before being outpaced late on at Southwell a fortnight ago. He pretty much led until the last hurdle before being ran out of it by faster finishers, eventually coming home 4th of 11. A similar effort over a longer trip puts him in the mix today.

(7) Je Suis Sacre hasn't shown much in three starts over shorter trips to acquire an opening mark of 83, but a step up in trip, a drop in class and a stack of stats suggest this might suit him better, even if he hasn't been seen for ten months.

That said, I still think the lay-off could be an issue and I'd be more inclined to go with (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Malinka & (3) St Lukes Chelsea

Leg 2: (3) Getaway Drumlee, (1) High Treason & (8) Koenigsstern (5) Brulure Noire

Leg 3: (4) Chancellorstown, (2) Groom De Cotte & (1) Eileen's Milan

Leg 4: (6) Valirann Gold, (1) Captain Claude & (5) Leading Swoop

Leg 5: (1) Hollygrove Cha Cha, (6) Katira Du Mestivel & (7) Miss Ireland

Leg 6: (3) John Betjeman, (9) Motazzen & (1) Summer In Milan

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck everyone,
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24