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Weekend Football Preview, 20/21 September 2013

Big match for Moyes against City

Big match for Moyes against City

www.bettinglive.com's chief football writer, Jonathan Turner, previews the weekend's Premier League action.

There's no doubt at all about the match of the weekend as Manchester duo City and United lock horns at the Etihad for both bragging rights and potential Premier League title favouritism.

However that game has limited appeal from a betting perspective. Normally it's a showdown which has everything, especially goals. Five of the last six clashes have seen both teams score but this time around we've got two new managers and plenty of new players for City so a cautious punting approach is the right way to go.

We're therefore taking a watching brief on that one and head into the rest of the action on the back of a profitable weekend, courtesy of landing the 11/4 tip on less than 1.5 goals in Southampton v West Ham last Sunday which ended goalless.This week our banker bet is under 2.5 goals at Anfield when Liverpool host Southampton.

Liverpool top the table after a fine start to the season but until Jonjo Shelvey's intervention on Monday night - when he scored early for Swansea but then gifted the Reds two goals - their matches had featured little goalmouth action at either end, having opened the campaign with three consecutive 1-0 wins.

They've now got a real problem to deal with as in-form Philippe Coutinho picked up a shoulder injury against the Swans which has ruled him out for six weeks. He's been by far their most creative player this season (with Luis Suarez still on the sidelines as he serves out his 10-match suspension) and to underline that his departure coincided with a radical shift in momentum on Monday as Swansea had nearly 70% of the possession in the second half.

In opposition on Saturday is a Southampton side whose four games so far have seen a total of just four goals and whose whose last seven Premier games away have each been under the 2.5 goals line.

It's therefore a big surprise that we can get odds against (11/10 with Coral) about that happening again, especially as Coutinho and Suarez will be watching from the sidelines. For what it's worth this fixture finished 1-0 to the Reds last season, with a similar scoreline in prospect again.

Coral Sports

We're sticking to last week's format and nominating two 'next best' singles.

First up is Sunderland to win the battle of the bottom two at West Brom (16/5 with bet365). There's no disguising the Black Cats' poor start to the campaign but there were some promising signs in their 3-1 defeat to Arsenal last week, which could have had a very different outcome had Jozy Altidore’s goal – which would have made it 2-2 – not been bizarrely ruled out by referee Martin Atkinson.

It's at the back where they look particularly vulnerable - no side has conceded more than their eight goals - but that's an area where they might just gain some respite against West Brom, with the Baggies barely offering a threat up front.

It took them no less than 360 minutes to score their first goal of the season (a Gareth McAuley header in added time at Fulham last week) and there was little in that match to suggest things are about to change.

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So in a clash between two out-of-form teams we've no hesitation in siding with the one which actually possesses a goal threat and that's Sunderland, who can be backed at a fraction over 3/1 for the three points.

It's another north east side who provide the next interest in the shape of Newcastle. We opposed them last week for their trip to Aston Villa but got our fingers burnt - and while we don't like to make excuses there were mitigating circumstances.

That's because it had been unclear heading into the came whether French playmaker Yohan Cabaye would be involved for the Magpies. And not only did he start but he arguably proved the difference between the teams as he produced a superb performance to help them to a 2-1 win.

Cabaye's on/off potential move to Arsenal saw him miss most of Newcastle's first three games but once the transfer window closed he was re-introduced to the fray late on against Fulham (galvanising them to a first win of the season) before taking centre stage at Villa.

He’s still got work to do to appease all of the Newcastle fans but he’s made a decent start and is clearly their most influential player.

They face Hull this weekend and given the Cabaye dynamic there’s an argument that they offer a touch of value at 5/6. However a better option is backing the man himself in the anytime scorer market at 5/1. He went close at Villa last week, is clearly back to full match-sharpness and netted in six of his 26 league games last term which makes the price look generous for a home game against one of the relegation favourites. We also know now that - barring injury - he's guaranteed a starting berth.

Coral Sports

Our weekend staking plan is rounded off with a double - Romelu Lukaku to score anytime for Everton at West Ham (21/10 with Bet Victor) and both teams to find the net in Arsenal v Stoke (11/10 with Bet Victor).

Lukaku, signed on loan from Chelsea, should give the Toffees a much-needed added dimension as they’ve lacked a cutting edge in their opening games. His match fitness has to be taken on trust to some extent (he’s played just 71 minutes this term) but he scored 17 goals on loan at West Brom last season, including a debut effort against Liverpool.

He's almost certain to start and looks perfectly positioned to take advantage of the numerous chances Everton have created - but rarely converted - over the last month.

We're doubling that with both teams to score at odds against in Arsenal against Stoke at the Emirates.

Recent clashes between this pair have been low scoring (1-0, 0-0 and 1-1) but there are strong grounds for thinking that could now change.

Arsenal appear to be going with an ‘attack is the best form of defence’ policy while Stoke already seem a much more expansive side compared to the last few seasons and were a touch unlucky not to beat Manchester City last week.

The bookies' don't seem to have fully latched on to the Gunners' tactics which are even more pronounced to accommodate Mesut Özil in the first XI (talking of whom, hopefully a few of you followed the closing advice last week to back him at 11/4 for an assist as he took just 11 minutes to oblige).


Selections:
Weekend banker - under 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Southampton at 11/10 (Coral).

Next best singles - Sunderland to beat West Brom at 16/5 (bet365) and Yohan Cabaye to score anytime for Newcastle against Hull at 5/1 (Coral).

Double - Romelu Lukaku to score anytime for Everton against West Ham at 21/10 and both teams to score in Arsenal v Stoke at 11/10 (both top prices with Bet Victor, double pays 11/2)

You can read more about this weekend's Premier League fixture list, and the bets to make, at www.bettinglive.com

The Best Football Tipping Service

"What's the best football tipping service?" is a question I get asked at least three times a week in the main football season months. And no wonder. There's literally hundreds of systems and services claiming to be good, great, or the best. I've reviewed some here on Geegeez and there are a few that I really like. And scores that I don't.

But today I want to tell you about a guy who eats, sleeps and breathes football stats. There's no question he can readily outstat Statto. The man's like a walking Carling Opta database!

He's been providing football tips for various high charging services for a good few years now, and he came to one of my training workshops last year. And now he's recently launched his own service. Not before time! [I've been urging him to do this for about twelve months now...]

Anyway, to tell you a bit about this 'football brain', and his service, he and I hooked up on a telephone call, and I recorded the whole thing so you can get the story straight from the horse's mouth. Just click the link below:

Footy Plans Interview with Geegeez

If you don't want to listen to the audio (or have problems with it - you'll need something called Quicktime installed on your computer), you can read below for a summary of this brilliant football tipping service.

The Service

Footyplans, as the service is known, is delivered via email straight to your inbox. You'll receive an email like the one below each day there's a bet:

Example email from Footyplans

Example email from Footyplans

As well as an email before the matches (usually the night before), Kevin also sends an email after the matches with a summary of actual performance against expected performance.

Results

The summary results are thus:

Last season in test, the service turned a 50 point £5,000 bank (i.e. £100 a point) into over £20,000. Even betting a tenner per bet would have netted you over two grand last season.

This season, since go live, the bank is already up 25%, and the service is only really hitting stride now. In real terms, a bank of £5,000 is already at £6,245. Or put another way, if you'd signed up for the season and were only betting a tenner per tip, you'd have already more than paid for your subscription.

All results are updated on the Footyplans results page here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

What's the Cost?

Somewhat remarkably for a service with a proven track record, such as Footyplans, the cost is accessible to anybody who wants to get involved. You can elect to sign up on a monthly basis, or for the full season. Naturally enough, if you go for the full season, you'll be instantly rewarded with a tidy discount.

The monthly cost is just £19, which is about 25p per tip! If you elect for the full season, to mid-May, you will make a one off payment of £99. So that's seven and a half months for the price of five.

You can sign up here.

What if I don't like it?

Kevin has been around the block, and he hates the crooks and scumbags as much as I do. As such, he's prepared to give you a full 30 days to try the service out. If you don't like it, for whatever reason, just send him an email - he usually replies within a couple of hours - and he'll sort you out. No problem.

He's (quite rightly) both proud of, and confident in, his statistically-rich and proven football betting service, and he's prepared to put that pride and confidence where his mouth is to offer that unequivocal guarantee.

My advice is that you use at least some of that period to paper trade - to see if the service is for you. Once you're happy that it is, get your bank together and kick on. If you're not, let Kevin know and he'll do the necessary.

What's the catch?

No catch. You go to this page to sign up (or from there have a look around the site to make sure you've got all the info you need), then you'll start getting emails with the tips in them.

Actually, there is a very slight catch. And it's this. Kevin is new to running his own service (even though he's an old hand at providing tips for other people's services), and he's a little uncertain about the admin side of things. So he's restricting access to a hundred spots.

As always with Geegeez, when I say or promote a service that says that, it's not hype. It's the way it is for the reasons outlined. Now Kevin might open up again later on, when he's happy he can deal with the enquiries etc. But if you want to get in from (almost) the start, now is the time.

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Summary

In summary, I've known Kevin for a couple of years. He's done lay system trials and reviews on the Geegeez blog; he's attended one of my seminars; and, I've been receiving his tips (through other people's services) for over a year.

Kevin is a genuine bloke - a Yorkshireman born and bred - and he's totally focused on his football. And he's bloody good at it.

He's offering Geegeez readers 'first dibs' to get his tips, and he's capping it at 100 subscribers.

Kevin is retired and makes his money from betting football. And he guarantees you can make money from betting football too... though not the retirement bit! 😉

This is quite simply the best football tipping service I've seen. I've been following his advice, and I strongly recommend you do likewise.

Be one of the 'happy hundred' by signing up here.

Football League Preview – 2010/11 Season

And now, dear reader, for something completely different, as the old Python's used to say. This Saturday sees the start of the football season for 'real' fans, i.e. those whose team does not play in the Premier League, and I have a thought or three on the subject. So here goes...

There is one team in the three divisions that stands out as a very short price. That is the 12/5 best price on Southampton. To be truthful, in a division with 24 teams, that is a joke price. They might win. So what? 12/5 is a joke price. They've got fierce derby matches against Bournemouth and Brighton to contend with, as well as road trips to the likes of Carlisle at the other end of the cosmos (or England at least). 12/5... joke price.

Also bear in mind that a favourite hasn't won this division in the last eleven seasons, and that includes Leeds twice (at 3/1 and 4/1), Nottingham Forest three times (at 7/2 and 5/1 twice), and Cardiff at 13/5. Joke price.

Every team in the division wants to beat the moneybags side, and Southampton are not going to be gifted too many games this year. Sure, they have a strong squad with a lot of striking firepower in the likes of Rickie Lambert, but defensively, they might need shoring up.

There's also strong rumours of dissension between wealthy chairman and manager. Never a good sign. Saints have a chequered recent past and this looks a fairly combustible powder-keg of a situation. If Pardew doesn't start well, he might not be there by October.

Give the Saints the swerve. Lay them if you don't mind tying up capital for nine months, but I just can't have them at 12/5. As I may have mentioned, it's a joke price.

So who's going to beat them then? Well, my man who knows about low league football gave me two teams ages ago, and the price has gone on both of them to some degree. Nevertheless, I still think one of them offers cracking each-way value.

The two are Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield, and the team I like are Huddersfield. They scored bundles of goals last year, but were a bit shaky defensively. Manager Lee Clark has addressed that in the close season, with the eye-catching acquisition of middle of the park kicker (a man after my own heart!), Joey Gudjonsson, and octogenarian Gary Naysmith (actually, much to my surprise, he's only 31 - seems to have been around forever).

They've also added some goals and width in midfield with the loans of Joe Garner from Forest and Lee Croft from Derby. They are rock solid at the Galpharm Stadium (I preferred stadia before they were sponsored), but do need to improve on their away form.

8/1 looks decent value indeed, and they must have a great shout of troubling the judge at more than three times the price of Southampton.

Sheffield Wednesday have made some headline signings, like Neil Mellor and Clinton Morrison, but it'll take more than a fat journeyman and a thin journeyman to turn the tide in the blue half of the city of steel. Add to this the fact that there are some fairly serious financial problems at Wednesday, and they look opposable at odds as short as 9/2 (6/1 available).

Peterborough, relegated horribly last season, will be much stronger this time with excellent manager Gary Johnson in the hot seat, and League One penalty box executioners, CMS (that's Craig Mackail-Smith to you) and Aaron McLean, set to fill their boots. But they were awful last year, and I just wonder about their temperament. Wouldn't surprise me to see them up there.

Finally, I have to give a mention to my own team, the Super Cherries of Bournemouth. Last season, Eddie Howe did exceptionally well to get us promoted in second place, with a transfer embargo in situ for pretty much the entire season. Cherries were playing with as few as three of the allowed seven subs, and including the 33 year old assistant manager Jason Tindall, last year due to the burden of the fiscal misdeeds of the previous administration.

My own reservations regarding the new chairman, Eddie Mitchell (ostensibly a property developing wide boy), have all but dissipated and he deserves immense credit for turning a £1.4 million debt into about £300k, which should be paid off by October, without dipping in and bailing out.

In other words, he's introduced some sound (and hard nosed, I might add) business acumen to a football club. Of that, we Bournemouth fans can be justly proud.

The two Eddies have worked hard to instill a fierce sense of club loyalty, and that has been borne out by manager Howe's refusal to consider - let's face it - better offers higher up the league ladder.

Having retained the entire squad from last season, and bolstered it with some canny additions - including Howe's half-brother, the reasonably prolific SPL striker, Steve Lovell; Marc Pugh, a well regarded midfielder who scored 13 goals for a relegated side from midfield last season; Michael Symes, another goalscorer; and previous club defenders, Stephen Purches - returning from Orient after three seasons away, and Rhoys Wiggins - finally signed on a full-time contract after two seasons on loan.

I'm not saying Bournemouth will win the division but they are a buy on the spreads for total points at 55 (50 would likely see them relegated!), and are definitely worth a look in season match bets too.

My two against the field are: Huddersfield Town and Peterborough

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Heading back up to the Championship, it's a much harder league to call - on the face of it at least.

With much discussion in recent years about Rangers and Celtic coming to play in the Championship south of the border, that will virtually happen this season as former Celtic manager, Gordon Strachan, has brought four SPL players, three of them from the Auld Firm.

Boro were truly awful last year, and the ever-patient chairman Steve Gibson was right to get shot of insipid Gareth Southgate. The only frustration about that is that we're now obliged to listen to his guffing on ITV sport football. (Seriously, has there ever been a worse studio pundit squad than ITV's at the World Cup. With the notable exception of Marcel Desailly's passion, they were just horrible. Watching Adrian Chiles is like watching Murun Buchstansangur!)

Sorry, where was I? Ah yes, Middlesbrough and Championship. Maybe, but not for me at the price.

It's another division where the favourite hasn't won for a long time - in this case, Manchester City back in 2001-2 at 7/2. So look for value...

Relegated clubs have an excellent record of 'bouncebackability' from this section, so Burnley and Hull are interesting on that score. Forget Pompey, who look to have a long, hard road just to stay in business.

Burnley are much preferred and, having retained most of their players, look primed for a decent charge. They'll miss Steven Fletcher and Robbie Blake mind you, so 10/1 looks only fair.

Reading finished last season very well: the forty points they secured in the second half of the season was only bettered by promoted sides, Newcastle and West Brom. They've not done much business in the window, but they're a capable outfit and, if a charge begins to manifest itself, the chairman will likely cough up for signings. Again, 12/1 looks fair rather than generous.

A side worth looking out for here are Sheffield United. They weren't far away last season, finishing eighth, and they were ninth and third in the two previous seasons. Granted a decent run, they should be looking at a play-off spot, and automatic promotion is not beyond them. Bet 365 are standout at 20/1, but there's plenty of 18's available.

My four against the field are: Middlesbrough, Burnley, Reading and Sheffield United

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Down in the basement division, League Two, it's very tough. This one looks wide open this year, and is a brave punter who piles in here.

Of the relegated sides, I think Wycombe will do well, and so does my football man. Funnily enough, so did the Racing Post footy pullout yesterday, so the price may have contracted by now. Wanderers have had a very good pre-season, and are a goalscoring team.

Rotherham look best of the League Two sides who try again this year and, in Adam Le Fondre, have a dead-eye striker at this level. They still have talismanic manager, Ronnie Moore, in the hot seat and - after a serious summer of wheeler dealing - they ought to do better than last term's 5th place.

Teams who come up from the Conference (or Blue Square Bet Premier to give it the current title) have done well in League Two. Dagenham and Redbridge are the latest to jump up to League One, and a number of sides - including Carlisle, Exeter and Doncaster (now nicely embedded in the Championship under former Cherries boss, Sean O'Driscoll).

So Stevenage are worth more than a cursory glance at 16's. They've strengthened the squad which hacked up in the Conference last season, and will smash a fair few of the 'dead wood' sides in League Two.

My three against the field are: Wycombe, Rotherham, and Stevenage.

I'm looking at a perm trixie, which is 50 bets for two, three and four teams as above. Be careful with e/w bets though, as it comes to a LOT more lines!

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Now you'll know that the new Geegeez Racing Club horse, Khajaaly, had his first run for us yesterday at Newcastle. You may also know that he finished fourth in the end, of the seven runners, and beaten a fair way.

Given that he was sent off the 11/4 favourite, it is probably OK to say that this was a disappointing run, for which there may have been a number of reasons.

I'll not go into those here, as I have already discussed with members by email. Suffice it to say, we look forward to another day with Khajaaly.

Today, Julia is at Haydock with a 2yo newcomer, Generous Genella. I know that she works very well at home, beating the stable's Albany Stakes 5th, Emma's Gift, always. But... Emma's is not much of a home worker, so it's hard to know what to expect.

All I can say is that stable are extremely hopeful. They've another five runners across Brighton and Yarmouth, and all are entered with hope rather than expectation, though most are in the right grade so have a chance.

That's all for today.

Matt