Tag Archive for: football tips

2023/24 Football Season Preview

/in /by

They're only just through the group stages of the Women's World Cup and it's kick off time for the Football League on Saturday (Friday night, in fact). What follows is my once a year foray into the footy where I try to find a sustaining ante post multiple to keep us warm through the next nine and a half months. We've had good times and bad times down the years, and this one is more likely to be a zero than a hero, truth be told. But before I share where I'm guessing this season, let's have a quick squint at the previous campaign.

 

Last Season: Pass the Sick Bucket...

I rolled with a yankee this time last year, and it didn't go especially well, I'm afraid. My four picks were:

- Premier League Dual Forecast: Man City-Liverpool at 8/11 (1st-5th, Liverpool finishing fifth after a lamentable two-thirds of a season was a minor miracle - never had a chance)

- Championship Promotion: Burnley at 7/2 (1st: made all, pulled clear, comfortably)

- League One Promotion: Bolton at 4/1 (5th, lost in play-off semi-final)

- League Two Promotion: Mansfield at 9/4 (8th, missed play-offs on goal difference)

After the Premier League bet sunk pronto - again - we got a fair run for, ultimately, no money with Burnley always looking strong and both Bolton and Mansfield teasing us remorselessly. In truth, neither of the latter pair threatened the auto places and we (me, and you if you followed me in) got just about what we deserved. But we did nearly get more than we deserved!

Last year's post is here, if you want to do that to yourself.

 

2023/24 Picks

No more yankees, not this year anyway, and I'm dodging the Premier League, too. I was tempted to put Bournemouth up for relegation because I think it'll take a while for Iraola to impress his style on the squad; but there are plenty of drop candidates - and I get that market wrong every year, even being 'smart' enough to avoid the obvious promoted clubs (who look weaker this term but are priced accordingly). Nope, no EPL for me this time. Instead, I'm having a cut at a perm trixie, and it's probably fair to say it's a tad ambitious...

Championship Promotion

The market is perennially made by the Prem droppers, and Leicester do look strong bounceback contenders. But I'm far less sold on Leeds and especially Southampton. The best team not to get promoted last term, especially after Christmas, was Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough. He's done admirably so far, and has kept the squad together as well as adding one of the best keepers in the division from last year. There's a fair chance that 28-goal Chuba Akpom might move on (Sheff Utd strongly linked) but even if they don't keep him Carrick's rolodex grants him the pick of the Premier League's youth ranks in the loan market. They ought to go well with a good start.

League One Promotion

I've doubled up in both League One and League Two this season, hoping to hit one in each section, dreaming of getting the lot. First pick here is Portsmouth, a team who are pretty much always thereabouts. They were a little underwhelming last season, granted, finishing only eighth after a first half where they accrued a moderate 31 points. They'll need to start better, then, which is not a gimme given the number of players they've brought in; but if they gel, the likes of Christian Saydee, who did well on loan at Shrews (from Bournemouth) last season, and experienced cat Will Norris can offer a bit of extra quality at either end of the pitch. Colby Bishop had a breakout season last time, bagging 20 goals, and he'll be aiming to improve on that.

More leftfield is Blackpool. Relegated from the Championship last year, they have cashed in on top scorer Jerry Yates, who has been signed by Swansea for £2.5m. That theoretically gives manager Neil Critchley a fat wallet with which to go shopping. He returned in May having previously got the Tangerines promoted, and will need to secure a striker as a priority. Kyle Joseph will be part of that goalscoring solution, arriving from Swansea - though he was on loan at Oxford last season - as will the less than prolific Shayne Lavery, but Critchley will be looking for more firepower. Lavery and new signing Albie Morgan have been lively in pre-season and this feels like a side that will improve as time passes. Hopefully not too much time.

League Two Promotion

I was tempted to go with Mansfield again, and the likes of Wrexham and Stockport are obvious players, but commensurately short in the market. In the end, I've sided with one shortie: Notts County. They were very much in the shadow of Wrexham's Hollywood boys last term but managed a whopping 107 points themselves. Having signed ex-Prem striker David McGoldrick - 20+ goals in League One last season in spite of being 36 - they'll score plenty and should be in the vanguard throughout.

More speculative - a good bit more - is MK Dons. A bit of a yoyo club, the Dons were relegated seven seasons ago to this division and finished third a year later to return to League One. 21st in that section last term sees them here again but it was a bizarre turnaround from their third place finish in L1 the campaign before. Even allowing for that being an overperformance, to get relegated was a shock to most. They have the financial clout, amongst others this season it is fair to say, to strengthen before the window closes and, if necessary, again in January; that makes MK look a bit of value in a highly competitive division. The beauty of League Two of course is that there are three automatic promotion places and play-off positions down to seventh, so plenty of possible outs.

 

The 2023/24 Wager

Using oddschecker, I pieced together the best prices, which wasn't too difficult as it happened because most of them were with Betway, a firm who won't let me bet 30p on a horse but will happily lay a fair liability on footy. Saying that, they did restrict the last of my eight doubles and trebles, as you can see from the image below. I put the rest on with Hills, whose boost actually made them a better price anyway. Go figure.

[If you just want to make one bet with one bookie, Betway offer the best overall odds at time of writing]

So it's a perm trixie this year: eight doubles and four trebles as per the glamorous image to the right.

This is a highly speculative wager - more so than usual - and it will very possibly return zero, with a miracle jackpot scenario of about £9,600.

But for a season's worth of entertainment for £3 if you want a 25p slice of the action, or whatever stake suits your budget and your gullibility/conviction* (*delete as applicable) in my selections. For that three quid, you'd still be cheering an unlikely - but possible - £96 payoff, and we ought to get at least some sort of run for the pennies with almost any double getting us our money back. Caveat emptor if you follow me in. Obviously.

This one's for the dreamers, the fantasists and the windmill tilters.

Good luck,
Matt

Ps who do you like, and why? Leave a comment below and let us know

2022/23 Football Season Preview

/in /by

It's not yet the end of July and yet here we are again, about to embark upon another ten months of kicking and screaming courtesy of the only round ball game that really counts (with obvs apols to fans of other, less count-y, round ball games).

I loves me footy and, though this is a racing page every other day in the year, this day it pulls on its studded boots and increasingly tight (must have shrunk in the wash, can't be any other reason...) shorts to deliver a half-cooked notion or three on the upcoming season. As is now the formula, before looking forward we must cast an eye astern and see what emerged from the wake of last season's footer foray.

Last Season: Meh...

For the first time in published history - fully six seasons, so not that much really - I changed it up. Stepping away from the tried and trusted perm trixie of seven bets, I (we, if you followed me in) went down the yankee path. That meant four picks in different markets, any double securing a payout, as opposed to four picks across three markets theretofore. These were those:

- Premier League Relegation: Crystal Palace at 7/4 (12th, started well, never in danger)

- Championship Top Six finish: Bournemouth at 11/8 (2nd, never in doubt)

- League One Promotion: Ipswich at 5/2 (11th, never nearer)

- League Two Promotion: Exeter City at 10/3 (2nd, pretty much always thereabouts)

This was over early. Ipswich did what I needed Palace to do, and Palace what I needed from Ipswich. Vieira conjured a better than fine effort from a newish squad, while Paul Cook paid the price for not being able to make a congruent picture from all the jigsaw pieces he'd aggregated during the summer; he was seeking new opportunities by early December - and so, alas, were we.

The Cherries / Grecians double returned 10.26 of 11 points staked which, on a bet largely over by the end of August, felt like a massive win in a way!

Last year's post is here, if you want to review.

 

2022/23 Picks

I quite liked the broader spread of the yankee bet last season and will stick with that, for all that what follows is far more risky and, as a consequence, more likely to return a big fat bagel. Win or lose, I'm happy to take the chance. A yankee (11 bets, doubles, trebles and a fourfold) it is, then, across the four divisions. Same stakes as last year - which are/were slightly smaller than the perm trixie - because, naturally, an extra leg involves a higher degree of risk (and potential reward). And these longer prices involve a further layer of greater risk.

Anyway, that's the preamble done and dusted, so these are the picks...

Premier League Dual Forecast

I've got the Premier League relegation market consistently wrong for years now and, in the end, I have to concede that it's trickier than I usually have it. This season, I expect Cherries will struggle badly, especially if they don't get on and do some transfer business. Sigh. But they're too short, so instead I'm taking an acceptably short price about the Man City / Liverpool dual forecast. Either order, first and second.

Yes, I know it's pretty uninspired; and I accept the wheels will fall off at some point; and yes, I'm aware that teams around them, notably Spurs, have bolstered well. But they were a full six wins above Chelsea last term, and seven above Tottingham. The gap may be eroded, I don't see it being wholly bridged. 8/11 amounts to something of a banker in the context of what follows and, as you'll see, we may need that to secure at least the prospect of a double and a bit of the dough back next May.

Championship Promotion

The hardest division in the land, and Burnley could get relegated if things go poorly. But, despite being unfashionable and despite biffing one of the top English managers late last campaign, they have a bit of a chance. Squad depth, parachute payments and the sort of gritty playing style that can keep them in the hunt are attributes well suited to Championship football. While the loss of Ben Mee, Nick Pope and James Tarkowski - as well as exciting prospect Nathan Collins - makes them notably weaker defensively, they've netted £25m from the ins and outs, and moved bundles off the wage bill including many of the squad veterans.

In come Josh Cullen, a strong central midfielder from Anderlecht (via West Ham and Charlton); highly touted Man City youth 'keeper, Arijanet Muric (nope, me neither); a couple of promising centre halves in Conrad 'CJ' Egan-Riley (another City youth project) and Luke McNally; and a couple of loan signings from the top end of the Prem. They probably need more legs up top - just Vydra, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez currently - but a team with the likes of Lowton, Taylor, Westwood, Cork, and Cornet and McNeil if they can retain them - has a very strong looking spine.

Norwich and Watford were four wins behind Burnley in the Premier League last season and don't look any stronger. That said, if Sarr and Dennis can a) stay fit and b) remain at the club, the Hornets could have plenty of goals in their ranks.

Loads of 'usual suspects' in this ultra-trappy section, including West Brom, who were utterly dreadful in the second half of last season; Middlesbrough, expected to be weakened by departures; and an aging but robust looking Sheffield United. And Huddersfield are probably over-priced at 14/1 for promotion. But I'm backing Burnley's bouncebackability in a brown or bust scenario.

League One Promotion

A long time admirer of Sunderland's ability to make the market and clunk, I was disappointed (in that regard, at least) to see them go up via the playoffs in May. My pick last year was Ipswich, and they have the feel of 'the new Sunderland' for all that they're likely to be better equipped than twelve months ago as a result of far less player turnover. They're at the head of the market and a likely 'runner', as are Sheffield Wednesday, who look worthy favourites but unexciting at 6/4 for the promotion gig.

Instead, I've plumped for Bolton who are as big as 9/2 in a place and 4/1 generally. A steady enough beginning to the 2021/22 campaign meant a struggle to get competitive in their first spin back at League One after a short stint in the professional basement. They've been a box office club to follow in recent times, from their inability to fulfil fixtures pre-pandemic to a glut of high-scoring tallies in the first half of 2022, mainly courtesy of left winger Afolayan and striker Bakayoko, they've rarely been out of the news. More soap opera will surely follow this season and, win or lose, it'll be a fun ride cheering the Trotters in their quest for Championship football.

League Two Promotion

League Two is an unpredictable division again this term and, in a break from the approach thus far - where I've wanted to be with a team who showed plenty in part two of the last season - here I'm rolling with one that had an awesome middle but didn't quite finish the job. Taking out the first 15 matches of last term, Mansfield would have won the division; but of course one cannot do that, the winner having accrued the most points across 46 games, not 31. Still, that's testament to the direction of travel at the Nottinghamshire club, and if they can add a few more goals to a resolute rearguard they will make the top seven - for a playoff spot - and potentially an automatic promotion placing in the top three. They were weak in the latter part of the 21/22 campaign so probably need a deeper squad before the window closes at the end of August.

The betting is roughly 7/1 the field but a tell tale sign is that a couple of the co-favourites are former Conference sides Salford and Stockport, the latter recently promoted; so, while those teams have achieved the double jump in recent times (Doncaster and Crawley as two examples), I can't think of one in the last ten years or so. Leyton Orient might go well again and, at 9/2 in a place (4/1 general) they'd be playable; but I'm hoping the Stags can add some firepower to challenge for top honours.

 

The 2022/23 Wager

I'm sticking with the yankee, and it's been a bit of a mess trying to get on with the top priced doubles and trebles; in fact, I made a rick when taking two points under top price by mistake with one segment of the bet. A slightly poorer value, but far more straightforward, alternative is to strike any copycat plays with Hills, who are top price overall. My breakdown - it almost caused me one trying to get them placed - is in the images below.

As I hope I've mentioned throughout, it's an ambitious play, a fact underscored by a possible return of just shy of £10,000 for an all correct set of tickets!

But for a season's worth of entertainment for £2.75 if you want a 25p slice of the action, or whatever stake suits your budget and your gullibility/conviction* (*delete as applicable) in my selections. At the 50p end of the spectrum, you'd still be cheering an unlikely - but possible - £100 payoff, and we ought to get at least some sort of run for our shekels.

Where we follow the racing action day to day - each contest distinct from pretty much all others, a snapshot opportunity for profit and loss - our team(s) do battle through forty-odd related skirmishes and need to keep it together better than the rest in that light. It's a different kind of bet - capital tied up, joy/despair locked in - for the long haul. And I can't wait to see how it plays out.

Here's hoping...

Matt

2021/22 Football Season Preview

/in /by

After the weirdness (and, at times, tedium) of last season's concertinaed behind-closed-doors matches-every-day affair, the delayed Euro 2020 tournament has acted as a palate cleanser ahead of the return to something closely resembling normality in the upcoming 2021/22 football season.

The regular reader (thanks mum) will know this is my one-time foray into my other passion, footy, and she also knows I like to frame a bet within this virtual page. More on that in a moment but first, as is customary, how did last season's effort go?

Last Season: Nearly...

The shape of the bet has been unwavering: a perm trixie (four picks, doubles and trebles) comprised of a team for Premier League relegation, a team for Championship or League 1 promotion, and two teams for League 2 promotion (where there are three auto spots and playoff positions down to seventh).

After a total blowout in 2019/20 - it certainly won't be the last of those! - we almost got the lot last term, though it was very much a case of a first fence faller meaning we never actually had the chance of the full ticket. Here's why:

- Aston Villa 15/8 to be relegated from EPL (11th, comfortably stayed up)

- Peterborough 7/2 for League 1 promotion (2nd, automatic promotion)

- Cheltenham 3/1 for League 2 promotion (winners)

- Bolton 5/4 for League 2 promotion (3rd, automatic promotion)

The problem with this perm trixie was that Villa started in electric fashion and were all but safe by Christmas meaning the jackpot dream was sunk. That said, Bolton looked doomed early and we were hanging on for a (good-priced, in truth) double courtesy of Posh and Chelto. They got their jobs done relatively comfortably and a searing late charge from the Trotters meant we had two doubles and a healthy profit.

Last year's post is here, if you want to review.

 

2021/22 Picks

For the first time in these annual previews, I'm going to slightly change things up. Win or lose, I won't regret it because the shape of League Two this year is almost unplayable such is its competitiveness, on looks at least. So, instead, I'm going to risk a yankee (11 bets, doubles, trebles and a fourfold) across the four divisions. I'll be smaller staking it compared with previous years because, naturally, an extra leg involves a higher degree of risk (and potential reward).

It is also the case that nobody really knows how reliable last season's form will be given the genuinely unique nature of the truncated campaign and playing without fans, as well as financial implications left, right and sideways.

With more caveats in situ than a dyslexic tie seller, then, here we go...

Premier League Relegation

This looks competitive with at least two of the promoted sides fancied to swerve the trap door; and there are some weak-looking sides who have flirted with the drop in recent seasons. All of Newcastle, Burnley and Crystal Palace look vulnerable, which immediately suggests this may be hotly contested.

Burnley are tenacious and might benefit from getting fans back at Turf Moor more than the other pair, while Newcastle have a bit of class with the likes of Saint-Maximin and goals in Wilson.

Palace have a wantaway talisman who hugely over-performed on his career scoring tallies last year in Wilf Zaha. More than that, they have a big name manager completely unproven in the Premier League in Patrick Vieira. The Frenchman did well enough in New York and Nice, and obviously understands the EPL dynamic, but he's inherited a moderate squad in need of significant bolstering. The level of player turnover at Selhurst Park is borderline alarming, old heads replaced with young potential.

Their 14th position last season owed much to over-producing from their chances (41 goals scored versus an expectation closer to 35), and a reversion to the norm - where Blunteke and Zaha produce single-figure output - looks likely. The talented Eze is out until 2022 and, while I was impressed with Michael Olise at Reading last term, it's asking a chunk for him to hit the ground running in the big league.

It feels like a recipe for a very difficult season for Palace, all the more so if Zaha finally gets his wish to move away.

Championship Top Six

I'm going to get whacked for this, no doubt, but my team, Bournemouth, have a decent chance of promotion making odds against for a top six finish look pretty fair. I don't generally call Cherries geese swans so, while the expected loss of the classy Arnie Danjuma will be a blow, it is strongly mitigated by a fit again Junior Stanislas and David Brooks looking in great shape. Of course, they are two regular sick notes, and Dom Solanke's work for the team has been more of an asset than his finishing; but the sale of Sam Surridge means new manager Scott Parker will almost certainly be in for a striker.

The south coast outfit are very strong in midfield, with the likes of Jefferson Lerma, Ben Pearson, Brooks, Stanislas, and the soon-returning Lewis Cook bolstered by emerging talent Gavin Kilkenny. Even if the brilliant Lerma departs there is still a lot in the engine room.

Defensively, things are more concerning, especially with Parker's high intensity high press looking like we'll be a 'both teams to score' sort of outfit. Leif Davis has been signed at left back, Steve Cook is a fantastic (and grossly under-rated) player - but is injured currently, Adam Smith has signed on again having been linked with the top division, and Lloyd Kelly continues to develop. In sticks, Mark Travers may have an opportunity to assume the number one position. But there's very little in reserve: additions are undoubtedly needed.

For all that, Cherries have bundles of quality and a failure to make the top six would be seen as a very poor season.

League One Promotion

No big surprise pick here - as if the first two were - as I agree with seemingly every pundit on the planet that the combination of an excellent manager, a decent squad from last season, ambitious signings and money in the kitty from new owners makes Ipswich Town look good value to get promoted to the Championship.

Paul Cook is the man in the hot seat, stepping in for the final two months of the last campaign: long enough to run the rule over his inheritance and establish where funds required investing. Cook decided an overhaul was necessary and no fewer than 15 players have since left the club (as well as two loanees), while eleven have come in (including one of the loanees).

Macauley Bonne gets support up top from Joe Pigott (20 goals in 45 league games for AFC Wimbledon last season) and Conor Chaplin, who registered a lot of minutes - if not a lot of goals - for Barnsley in his most recent campaign. Rekeem Harper has been recruited in centre midfield: I don't know much about him but he has 44 games in the Championship to his name, including 18 last term, so this is an easier grade.

A goalkeeper, Vaclav Hladky, and plenty of defensive cover have also been added. The worry, as with Bolton last season, is that it often takes time for large influxes to gel. The Tractor Boys have been notably fast starters in the last two seasons but faltered towards the finish; it's just possible this will see the converse transpire and, if they're within eight points at Christmas, they'll be a runner.

As usual, Sunderland help make the market and, as usual, I want to be against them. They'll get the job done one of these years but, boy, are they expensive to follow.

League Two Promotion

I normally like to take two for promotion from this division given the three automatic places and the playoffs keeping us engaged down to seventh place. But this season League Two looks inscrutable. Salford, and their famous ownership, head the lists with double-figure odds available about any other you like. In truth, I don't especially like any other, a faintly credible case possible for at least a dozen teams.

Having toyed with Tranmere Rovers, I eventually plumped for the consistency of Exeter City. Perennial play-off participants prior to uncharacteristically falling three points short last season, manager Matt Taylor is one of the most ensconced in the division. Taylor has retained most of last term's playing squad, with the primary exceptions of Randell Williams who has gone up a couple of divisions and a couple of hundred miles, to Hull; and Ryan Bowman, 14 goals last time around, to Shrewsbury.

He's brought in bundles of experience - the likes of 'keeper Scott Brown (36), Jonathan Grounds (33), and Timothee Dieng (29) - as well as some promising youngsters, such as Aston Villa youth product Callum Rowe and former MK Don, Sam Nombe.

It doesn't look a world-beating squad, but with captain Matt Jay capable of reprising his 20-goal season, and plenty of quantity if perhaps not top quality in support, they ought again to be in there pitching.

 

The 2021/22 Wager

As mentioned, I'm breaking with perm trixie tradition and instead playing a yankee to slightly smaller stakes. It's asking a lot to hit all four, or even three, but a double will recoup much of the stakes and a treble with three doubles will well reward the ambition. Catching the lot will be good times.

Betway don't let me wager horses with them but they'll happily take my footy punts, and they are the best price - just - on this quirky quartet. The acca with them amounts to 99/1 with the same play paying 96/1 with bet365.

It's a season's worth of entertainment for £5.50 if you want a 50p slice of the action, or whatever stake suits your budget and your gullibility/conviction* (*delete as applicable) in my selections.

Here's hoping...

 

Other interesting bets

I have no special in on football (or racing, for that matter) but I do think that Man City are a bit of value even at 4/6. Much has been made of their slow start last season, but less of their middling finish with the silverware already in the bag. Specifically, they lost at home to Leeds and Chelsea and away at Brighton. They also struggled to get past Newcastle in that run.

Even without signing one or both of Harry Kane and Jack Grealish, they're standout contenders and two-thirds of your stake is more than I'd personally want to lay. I've stuck them in a chunky double with an unspecified horse racing special market!

Aston Villa to be relegated is no back number. The play is predicated on Jack strutting elsewhere, so much of Villa's goodness emerging from his boot and brain double act. SkyBet are 9/1 which, even allowing for the volume of drop contenders, is mildly appealing.

Burnley or Palace to score the fewest goals at 6/1 and 15/2 respectively is also attractive inasmuch as non-scoring football teams can be attractive.

And in the top scorer market, dutching 10/3 Kane and 9/2 Salah at better than 11/8 combined will be hard to beat. If Harry goes to City, the play looks stronger for him; while if Kane stays at the Lane, Mo's prospects are improved.

It's quite hard to make a case for the rest who are either too profligate (Werner, Sterling, Mane) or too old (Vardy, Cavani) or too irregular a starter (Jesus). If Aubameyang stays at Arsenal and stays fit, it wouldn't take a huge leap of faith to see him back near the top of the charts. But he'll be 33 at some point during the season so teetering on the brink of the 'too old' category.

I love a finisher from a promoted Championship side in this market, and Ivan Toney is a 50/1 sore thumb in that context. He has snaffled 55 goals over his previous two seasons, in League One and the Championship, granted, but he will be the focal point through which all Brentford work flows. And he takes the pens. He's got some quality, too.

*

So that's where I've splurged my footy cash. Who do you fancy for the season ahead? Leave a comment below with your best bets.

Matt