Tag Archive for: free ascot tips

Ascot and Redcar Straight Course Draw Biases (Plus More Chester Hot Form)

Take your pick this weekend when it comes to top racing – there is Group 1 action from Newmarket in the form of the Sun Chariot Stakes, Ascot hosts a couple of Group 3s and some class 2 handicaps and even Redcar has two listed races including their well funded Two Year Old Trophy.

We saw last week at Newmarket that the near side rail was once again the place to be but the stalls will be on the far side for this meeting which will nullify that bias in most races.

I’m going to look at a couple of draw biases this week, at both Ascot and Redcar, with a couple of handicap races in mind.

Ascot Straight Course Draw Bias

Let’s first take a look at data from the straight course at Ascot on ground that is between good and soft.

A huge sample size as we include a variety of distances and the data implies a slight advantage to being drawn middle to high rather than low.

High performs best for win purposes, middle is narrowly ahead of high for places and middle and high both have a PRB of 0.51, compared to 0.48 for low. The lower draws come out the worst across every metric.

From spring to summer I’d nearly always prefer a high draw on anything I’m backing but things begin to change at this time of year. One factor that affects the draw now is a false rail is used at this meeting to save the ground for Champions day. This results in reduced field capacity this weekend and slightly different parts of the track being explored for some runners.

At this meeting in the past there seems to have been various draw biases, or perhaps no draw bias depending on which way you look at it.

We lost this meeting to the weather last year so the last time we had this meeting was back in 2019 and Kynren won the big 7f handicap from stall 17. That same stall was successful in 2018 when Raising Sand won and 16 was the winning stall in 2016. Accidental Agent won this from stall 8 in 2017. These recent wins seem to suggest the high stall bias remains for this meeting.

Just as important as simply looking at where the winners came from is to watch the races back and to see what parts of the course were explored and where on the track the placed horses were. In 2019 they came middle to near side in the ‘Challenge Cup’ and near side seemed to dominate. In a 5f handicap later on in that card they explored the same part of the track and although stalls 1 and 3 both placed, they actually passed the line on the same part of the track (near side) that Kynren won on earlier that day.

Although this is only two races worth of evidence, it does suggest two things. The first is that there seemed to be an advantage to racing near side (high numbers). The second is that without massive, 30 runner fields at this meeting the lower drawn numbers are still able to get over and race on the better ground. So whilst a high draw might be an advantage of some sort again this year, it doesn’t mean you can rule out the low numbers.

What about other recent years? In 2018 high numbers dominated the Challenge Cup but the winner largely raced in the middle of the pack and there didn’t seem as much of an advantage as the placed stall numbers would suggest. There was also a big field that year in the 7f listed race and again the winner came down the middle.

In 2017 the winners were coming middle to far side but then in 2016 they were coming middle or near side.

The overall point here with the draw at this meeting is that if there is a draw bias it’s not the easiest to predict and if you can predict it’s almost certainly not as strong a draw bias as you often see earlier in the season, partly because the field sizes as smaller.

If I could pick the ‘perfect’ draw here I’d probably go for something just on the high side of middle as it’s almost certain you’ll have an excellent chance of winning from there, if good enough. I’d prefer not to be drawn very low but I wouldn’t rule anything out solely because of it.

Challenge Cup 2021 Thoughts

First of all, a note on the ground/weather. Judging by the weather forecast the ground will be just on the soft side of good when racing on Friday finishes and the ground come race time on Saturday (3.50pm) depends very much on how early the heavy rain comes. At the time of writing heavy rain is forecast to hit the course an hour or two before this race. If it comes earlier than that the ground will almost certainly be soft, or if the rain is delayed this could be run on something closer to good to soft.

So it might be an idea to hold your bets unless your bet has no fears on anything the soft side of good.

Ascot is generally a fair course in terms of pace and the most important thing to consider is the individual pace setup in each race.

There really isn’t a lot of likely pace in this race which is automatically going to draw me towards something that likes to race prominently and something that is a bit more speed over stamina.

I’d have concerns over Al Rufaa and Arastus if the ground softens at all. Al Rufaa won a maiden on soft as a 2yo but ran flat last time he encountered cut whilst Arastus was pulled out because of good to soft ground in July.

Fresh is a horse I have a lot of time for, I fancied him strongly in the Wokingham here in June when 2nd to Rohaan. He’s only 2lbs higher now and seems to get on well with cut in the ground  and enjoys this course so clearly isn’t handicapped out of things at all. I just have reservations about this distance. He’s been strong at the finish on recent starts but he’s also a smooth traveller and whilst a muddling 7f won’t be the strongest test of stamina, this will be run at a very different tempo to what he’s used to and he’s unlikely to be ideally placed. There are enough negatives to put me off.

Escobar is another who likes it here and he too is feasibly handicapped. He was 3rd over course and distance behind River Nymph in May in a race that wasn’t strongly run and he found that a bit too much of a speed test. He’s 3lbs higher here and prefers a stronger gallop so he appeals more as one for the Balmoral Handicap later this month, a race he won in 2019.

River Nymph is only 1lb worse off with Escober for that win and has already proved he can operate over course and distance, on soft ground, in a relatively slowly run race. He’s still only raced 12 times and should still have some improvement left in him. There was nothing wrong with his listed 4th last time out when he was given plenty to do and it would be a surprise if more prominent racing tactics aren’t employed here. There is lots to like except the price. He’s shortened plenty since the ante post markets were put up but he should still be a fairly safe each way play with stall 7 not looking too bad.

Aldaary is one that has plenty of experience here. He’s been running in the big 7f handicaps here this summer and hasn’t been getting his ground so he promises to improve on his 5th in both the Buckingham Palace Stakes and the International Stakes now that he does get his ground. He’s a strong stayer at 7f though so whilst he’s one I like from a form and ground perspective, the pace make up here might not suit him and stall 2 probably isn’t the perfect draw.

It’s impossible to put that pace map up and not talk about Tomfre, who could get his own way out in front. He completed a hat trick on very testing ground towards the end of last season, wins that took him from a rating of 93 to 105. You could argue that rating has found him out this season but he was runner up in a listed race on seasonal debut when conceding race fitness to the rest of the field and then he was runner up in a York handicap when far more patiently ridden than usual. His 9th on very fast ground in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here was a fair effort considering he is an out and out mudlark and after that he missed 92 days, presumably due to the dry spell we had. On his return he was 1.75 lengths behind River Nympth at Newbury, admittedly that horse shaped better and was also returning from a break, but again Tomfre would have appreciated softer ground that day. If the ground turns soft Tomfre would rate a good each way bet at around 16/1 and if it managed to come up heavy he'd be a strong bet – although those odds would probably be long gone.

A drastic softening of the ground would also suit Ascension, who will appreciate this drop back in trip and his racing style could be well suited to this race, as well as Young Fire who was 2nd here over a mile at the Shergar Cup meeting in a race that has worked out well enough. He doesn’t really get on with York so he’s forgiven his effort last time out but he appreciates a good gallop as well as plenty of rain and he’s unlikely to get the former.

No prizes for suggesting River Nymph and Aldaary are the most likely winners of this. The former is a bit more versatile tactically speaking so is preferred from the pair however if the heavy rain comes early afternoon it should get into the ground pretty quickly and that would make TOMFRE great value. His draw in stall 11 could be just about perfect too.

Redcar Draw Bias

There seems to have been a huge shift in draw bias at Redcar this season. Here is the data for straight course handicaps in larger fields between 2009 and 2020.

Then here are the same filters just for this season.

Low drawn runners are winning more often, placing more often, and beating more rivals home than ever before.

Now I’m not sure why this is the case but on Saturday we have the 14 runner 2yo listed race and a 15 runner sprint handicap where low draws are likely to be advantaged in a way the bookies don’t quite appreciate and I also think it will have an impact on the 12 runner mile handicap, due off at 4.45.

Straight Mile Series Handicap Final Thoughts

This is the series final and it’s attracted a good field of runners with plenty of course form that has got them into this race.

The pace map shows that Delgrey Boy is likely to get an uncontested lead and if his jockey has much sense he’s going to pop out of stall 1 and head over to the far side rail. There is very little between him, Copper And Five and Sucellus on their course and distance clash a couple of weeks ago and the first two of those are both drawn low but Sucellus is drawn in 11 so the latter could come off worst of the trio this time. Neither Delgrey Boy or Copper And Five look particularly well handicapped anymore so whilst both should enjoy the run of the race, both from a draw and pace perspective, they could be vulnerable to other low drawn runners.

Those two runners may be Give It Some Teddy and Scottish Summit. The latter continues to outrun his odds but is frustrating in that he struggles to get his head in front. He’s only 1lb higher than when 3rd at York, not getting the run of the race, behind two subsequent winners, so he’s well handicapped and should go very well but he may be the bridesmaid yet again.

Give It Some Teddy has won this race for the past two renewals (no race last year) and has managed to turn up this year 2lbs lower than his last win here.

From 11 runs here he has a record of 5 wins and 7 places so he’s very much the course specialist in the field and trainer Tim Easterby could hardly be in much better form – his win strike rate in the past year in handicaps is 11.88% and in the past 14 days that has risen to 15.18%. It’s also worth noting that as well as winning this with Give It Some Teddy in the previous two renewals, he’s actually won four of the last five runnings of the race. He admittedly runs three others here (Delgrey Boy, Perfect Swiss and Al Erayg) but Give It Some Teddy holds those first two runners on recent course form and Al Erayg is 5lbs out of the handicap.

Give It Some Teddy, despite being 2lbs lower than his last win here, comes into this race in good form. He won comfortably at Thirsk in August, beating a next time out winner, and he followed that up with a narrowly beaten 3rd here off a 1lb lower mark than he races off here. That race has also worked out well with the runner up winning by 6 lengths on his next start and the 4th and 5th going on to win soon after too.

Give It Some Teddy has an excellent chance of making it three in a row in this with Scottish Summit feared most.

Hot Form At Chester

Last week at Chester I highlighted some hot form, which admittedly didn’t translate to such good performances on the day for a variety of reasons, but there is a good chance on Saturday for one of those strands of form to receive another boost.

I shared the above form line as a reason to why Muntadab might run well last week. As it was he doubled in price throughout the day and didn’t run to form but there is enough evidence to suggest The Kodi Kid could run a big race on Saturday in the opening race at 1.55pm.

The 2nd and 3rd both came out of that above race and won, as did the 7th, and it was The Kodi Kid who very much emerged from the race as the one to follow. He was weak in the betting, wide throughout and ultimately shaped as though he’d come on for the run – his first for two months and his first for Charlie Fellowes having previously raced for Andrew Balding.

The Kodi Kid has a previous course and distance success to his name on good to soft ground, where he beat a subsequent triple winner, and he still seems to be well handicapped off a 5lb higher mark here. There is a fair bit of rain forecast at Chester and it’s worth also noting that whereas the formbook says his last effort, shown above, came on good ground but the ground was actually changed to soft immediately after that race so it seems plenty of cut suits.

Master Zoffany has won two from two at Chester this season, both wins working out well, and he’d rate the main danger on ground he’ll likely enjoy but he does have to bounce back from a poor effort last time out at Goodwood (he’s been off for two months since).

Good luck with whatever you are backing this weekend.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Shergar Cup 2021 Tips and Preview

Let’s get this out there early – I like the Shergar Cup…

I couldn’t care less about which team of jockeys win but we are presented with six races, all with ten runners so they aren’t too hard to figure out and most races tend to be 3/1 or 4/1 the field so the majority tend to be backable prices.

The twist of course is the jockeys but in every race we should account for the quality of the jockeys. If you think a particular jockey isn’t of the required quality to back you can handicap the horses accordingly. Most years you can probably rule two or three of the ten runners out simply because the jockey has never ridden the course, ridden right handed, etc.

This year the jockey choices are very ‘safe’. The Rest of the World team includes Sean Levey, Andrea Atzeni and Kevin Stott who are hardly strangers to Ascot. The only real wildcard jockey selection seems to be Mickaelle Michel, a 26 year old French rider who has joined the Ladies Team. To be honest I’m not particularly familiar with her skills but you’d think the majority of the jockeys who are riding here week in, week out might have a slight edge on her.

I’m going to change the format of these previews this week and go through all of the races at the Shergar Cup, but in slightly less detail than usual. Hopefully I’ll be able to demonstrate that it can be a punter friendly card!

Unfortunately it is yet another weekend where we are playing guess the going due to an uncertain weather forecast. At the time of writing the ground is good but there are thunderstorms coming. It doesn’t look like a substantial amount is forecast so I’m going to assume good ground, maybe just on the easy side. If anything handles good and slightly softer that would be ideal.

Shergar Cup Preview and Tips

12.50 – Shergar Cup Dash – 5f

The draw isn’t going to have much of an impact at this meeting with the ten runner fields, especially on the straight course with the stalls positioned in the centre. Pace will have an impact in all races so let’s take a look at the pace map for this one.

The first thing to note here is that two of the pace angles, Mokaatil and First Edition, are both reserves for this race and will only get a run if there are non runners. This means King Of Stars may well get an uncontested early lead. It can be difficult to make all on the straight course at Ascot but it is far easier to do so over the minimum trip so don't write off front runners here. King Of  Stars will be one that wants the rain to stay away and he’s been beaten off 7lb and 5lb lower marks recently on his favoured ground so whilst he should fare better than at Goodwood, he may be unlikely to take advantage of an easy lead.

Count D’Orsay would be fairly interesting if lots of rain came but he’s been disappointing in two trips to Ascot and it’s possible this isn’t his track.

It is certainly Tis Marvellous’ track.

Pretty much all his best form has come here, he was even 4th in last year’s King’s Stand behind Battaash on ground that was a bit softer than ideal. Having run well here in a big field handicap last month on ground that was again slightly softer than ideal (probably similar to how it will ride here) it was disappointing he wasn’t able to add to his Ascot record last time out when the ground was in his favour. There didn’t seem any excuses that day but there has to be a suspicion that wasn’t him at his best. It would be easy to suggest he’s not been at his best this season but on seasonal debut he was just behind Came From The Dark (now rated 7lbs higher), Garrus (now rated 6lbs higher) and King’s Lynn (now 14lbs higher) and that run came away from Tis Marvellous’ beloved Ascot off a 1lb higher mark. The less rain the better his chance.

Stone Of Destiny is capable on his day but predicting which is his day is becoming increasingly difficult. He has a slightly disappointing strike rate for one of his ability and he’s only placed once from six handicap runs on triple figure marks so he’s opposable enough. He ideally needs a very strongly run race.

Tone The Barone has an impressive strike rate and has won twice over course and distance from three attempts. He’s been off since April for an unknown reason but has won off this sort of absence before. He was in decent enough form before his break (won over 5f and then didn’t stay 6f). Goes on good ground but probably wouldn’t too much rain.

Snazzy Jazzy is well served by deep ground and further so his run over 5f at York on good ground in listed company last time has to be considered very promising. This stiffer track will suit but it probably won’t be stiff enough unless they get a lot of rain.

Desert Safari ran twice at Glorious Goodwood and caught the eye on both occasions. The ground was probably a bit softer than ideal when he ran over 5f and then he found 6f a bit far in the Steward’s Cup. He’s not been the most consistent this season but is definitely in form, it’s just a case of catching him on a going day. He is however still completely unexposed at 5f on turf and unbeaten in that scenario away from soft ground (from one run).

Summary

Not the deepest of races and TIS MARVELLOUS ticks an awful lot of boxes. He probably doesn’t need to improve on his last two recent efforts here to take this and he’s tactically flexible. If backing him it may be best to wait until it looks like the ground shouldn't be too bad.

There are a lot of ifs and buts about the rest. Desert Safari and to a slightly lesser extent Stone Of Destiny could go close if on a going day, the former makes more appeal of that pair. Tone The Barone could be a big danger if  fit after a break whilst King Of Stars should run well if there is very little rain.

If it was more testing than expected then perhaps Snazzy Jazzy and Count D'Orsay would be the ones to concentrate on as most of the market fancies seem to want decent ground.

1.25 – Shergar Cup Stayers – 2m

Here’s the pace map for this contest, and there isn’t seemingly a whole lot of pace in this race so it may not be a severe stamina test.

Hochfeld looks most likely to go forward with Call My Bluff potentially happy to track the Mark Johnston runner. It would be no surprise to see this develop into a bit of a sprint finish so a stayer with a bit of speed might be best here.

The two most likely pace angles fit that bill to a certain extent but Hochfeld is inconsistent and his better runs this season haven’t really worked out whilst Call My Bluff will want a lot of rain, potentially more than they get.

Uber Cool looks likely to go off favourite. He returned from a whopping 959 day break at Chester in May with a comfortable victory and a long break since (70 days) has presumably been the plan in an attempt to avoid the dreaded bounce factor. The ground doesn’t seem to bother him whichever way it goes and he’s won an impressive seven of his fourteen starts. He’s 4lbs higher than when beating Elegiac in 2018 and that runner quickly went up 10lbs in the rating so he looks well handicapped from that run. He has been beaten three of the four times he’s raced at two miles or further thought, but he has won over this trip at Goodwood (just held on) and this might not be too much of a stamina test, especially if there isn’t lots of rain.

Island Brave won this race last season but that was a shock, he’s 6lbs higher here and hasn’t been in as good form this season. He was 4th in the Northumberland Plate last time out but that was a different surface and the form hasn’t worked out.

East Asia seemingly improved for the switch to turf this season and won three on the trot on ground ranging from soft to good. He isn’t as good on the all weather so is forgiven a flop at Newcastle next time but he bounced back to form over two furlongs shy of this trip on the fastest ground he’s encountered to date. That was a hotter race than this and he should improve for slightly easier ground and the step back up in trip here. He might not be done winning yet and whilst he should be okay on good ground, any more rain will help him further.

Indianapolis is a horse I selected in these previews a couple of weeks back at Newbury and he ran well enough in fifth given he was given too much to do. A return to a more prominent ride should suit and not only has he won at this meeting before, he was also in good form here two starts ago on good to soft ground and the winner and runner up have both come out of that race and run very well. Might not quite be up to winning but looks likely to be in the shake up.

Summary

Uber Cool is probably the one to beat but he might not want this to be too much of a test and he’s clearly been difficult to train so has become a riskier betting proposition.

I’s rather back either EAST ASIA or Indianapolis each way with the former making a bit more appeal as a likely winner. I respect Uber Cool enough to probably include him in some forecasts and tricasts with the other pair.

Call My Bluff would definitely be considered on good to soft or worse but even then East Asia is just as comfortable on that ground and possibly still better handicapped so an each way bet on the selection seems a safe play.

2.00 – Shergar Cup Challenge – 12f

Another pace map to look at, this time racing over 12f.

Torcello would be the only guaranteed pace here except he’s not guaranteed as he’s 2nd reserve and needs two non runners to get a run. Restorer did make the running on his penultimate start but normally tracks the pace so Group One Power could be the one who goes on. He has led early on his last three runs at this trip. It seems unlikely they’ll go hard so tactical speed and/or a prominent position could be important.

Sam Cooke had been struggling with keenness in his races but seemed to settle better in a hood last time out and ran his best race for some time as a result. He was a length and a quarter behind Group One Power that day at Chester and is 1lb better off here. He’s run well here before, is still lightly enough raced and has leading form claims. He might not settle if they go a slow gallop though and he'll want a fair bit of rain to fall to be at his absolute best.

Group One Power probably wouldn’t have beaten Sam Cooke last time out had that race been run over this trip instead of half a furlong shorter. He might have gone a little fast early in that race though as the other runners that were prominent early finished 6th, 7th and 10th, so to be beaten just half a length was a sound performance. He should be well placed in this and has run well here before twice. Joe Fanning is probably a lucky jockey draw given he knows very well how to set the fractions from the front.

HMS President ran on Thursday so could be a non runner in this. He ran well in a strong race at Windsor over half a furlong shorter on his penultimate start but didn’t conclusively prove his stamina that day. He’s not badly handicapped and was in good form on Thursday but could be found wanting late on if he does turn up here, for all he’s respected.

Spanish Kiss won a very hot York handicap in May (2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th have all won since) but he too has won again since, by a wide margin, and now finds himself 16lbs higher. He ran okay here in a decent race a few weeks ago but dropping back in trip might not be ideal plus the handicapper might now have him.

C’Est No Mour seems overpriced given he’s won two of his last three and was a little unlucky last time out. His win at Goodwood in June has worked out well with the runner up and 3rd both winning next time out. C’Est No Mour is only 4lbs higher here but that was over two furlongs further than this. He’s won on anything ranging from good to soft up to good to firm but is probably better on faster ground. He’s fairly handicapped but hasn’t placed in four runs here and his run style may leave him vulnerable here.

Summary

Much will depend on the ground here. GROUP ONE POWER is better than the bare result of his last few runs and could get a very easy lead in this for a good front running jockey. If the ground goes to good to soft Sam Cooke would probably be preferred whilst C’Est No Mour will probably be seen running on too late.

2.35 - Shergar Cup Mile – 1m

The pace map for this race, which is on the round course, not the straight course.

Corazon Espinado is the most likely pace angle but he’s a reserve for this and needs two to come out so he’s unlikely to get a run. In his absence Lord Rapscallion could lead but he’s not a guaranteed pace maker. Data Protection often makes the running but he was held up last time out and this is a shorter trip than he usually races over so he might not have the pace to lay up with them here. Vintager often only tracks the pace so he might not add much to the early speed meaning we are probably looking at no better than an even pace.

Dance Fever is the relatively warm favourite after a 3rd place in the much more competitive International Stakes here last time out over 7f. He’s up another 4lbs here, will be racing on slower ground (he’s been kept to very fast ground in his career so far) and has been beaten in both starts over a mile. Hopefully the rain doesn’t cause him to become a non runner because he’s opposable and helps make the market.

Dashing Roger likes to race prominently and enjoys plenty of cut in the ground. He bounced back to form two starts ago, winning at Sandown. He went up 6lbs for that but the runner up has won since. He was 3rd off a 1lb lower mark on good to soft last time out, the winner was 4th in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and the 4th won a competitive handicap there with ease so that was pretty strong form. He’s maybe slightly in the grip of the handicapper now but should run very well again from a decent early position if the word ‘soft’ appears in the going description.

Vintager has hit form in his last couple of starts but he won a fairly poor race at Windsor and then was a little unlucky on his latest start in an average race. If the ground doesn't soften much he could run okay. Of much more interest at a bigger price would be course specialist Raising Sand. He won this race comfortably back in 2017 and has four wins and a further four places at Ascot. It had looked like age had caught up with him until cheekpieces went on in the Buckingham Palace Stakes in June. He was drawn on the wrong side that day but still finished 6th overall and he ‘won’ on his side, finishing ahead of ten other runners. Last time out he ran in the International Stakes and he was 8th, 3rd in his centre group. He’s now 5lbs and 3lbs lower respectively from those races and crucially will get easier ground here. He’s never won on good to firm ground and those recent efforts are probably as well as he’s ever run on fast ground. He's now 12lbs lower than his highest mark (two years ago) and 6lbs below his last winning mark. He's raced more prominently than usual in the cheekpieces and that should help here.

Ouzo ran a very good 4th here in the Royal Hunt Cup and never got a clear run so could be marked up but he was perhaps flattered by racing close to the stands’ side rail that day as that looked easily a career best on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He didn’t back that up next time out when behind Dashing Roger at Salisbury. He’s only 2lbs higher than when winning at York last season but he needs very soft ground to be at his absolute best.

Summary

RAISING SAND looks a pretty obvious one and I’m surprised, given his Ascot record, he’s not much shorter in the betting. Good to soft might be absolutely perfect over this trip but even good ground should be enough for him to go close. On good ground Vintager could be the one who gives him most to do.

If the word ‘soft’ did appear in the going description Dashing Roger would be worth including in a forecast whilst Ouzo would come into the reckoning if it did get very testing.

3.10 – Shergar Cup Classic – 12f

Here's the pace map for this 3yo race.

This could be the most truly run race of the day with three last time out leaders and another that has made the running in one of their last two starts. There are no reserves in this race.

Mark Johnston has a total of three entered in this, including State Of Bliss. That runner ran a blinder in what should be a warm Goodwood handicap but that was his fourth second place in six runs. He’s still lightly raced but is beginning to look like one of those that struggles to get its head in front. Johnston did win this in 2019 with a similar type though. Annandale almost certainly wants further and Harlem Soul needs to bounce back from two poorer runs.

Barn Owl is the early favourite. He scrambled home in a Ripon novice in June but that form has been franked with the runner up, who got 5lbs from Barn Owl, winning a handicap since. That runner up is now rated 82 so Barn Owl probably isn’t badly treated off 84. He looked like this trip might suit when runner up at Sandown on seasonal debut but that didn’t look a strong race and rain probably wouldn’t suit (withdrawn on good to soft at Goodwood).

Possible Man won a decent novice in December but he’s had some limitations exposed since then. He did win last time out off just a 1lb lower mark, just beating State Of Bliss who is 2lbs worse off here so unlikely to reverse form. Stamina doesn’t look guaranteed and he was last of four when facing soft ground so rain is unlikely to help him either. Seems to be one to take on.

Sky Cutter seems quite a tricky type who gives trouble before races. He’s proven over this trip and on ground with some cut in it (he’d probably want lots of rain) and has finished runner up on both starts in the UK, for all the form of those races doesn’t look anything special. He was given an enterprising ride last time out and almost got away with it but he’s likely to have more competition for the lead here. One of the more proven runners at the very least.

Star Calibre couldn’t take advantage of weight for age against elders here last time out over two miles despite having the run of the race and he’s now looking a bit tripless.

Contact is more exposed than a few of these but he has a likeable profile. He enjoyed the step up to this trip at Pontefract, winning by 5.5 lengths, and although raised 8lbs for that he was still a creditable 5th on testing ground at Haydock trying 14f for the first time in what is normally a strong race. The very soft ground that day probably didn’t suit and whilst Contact should enjoy that trip again in the future, a strong gallop at this distance might be perfect for now. A good ride for Mickaelle Michel.

Summary

I’m keen to oppose quite a few of those near the head of the market in this one with some form question marks and definitely ground question marks if there is more than a little rain.

Sky Cutter seems solid, especially if the ground softens appreciably, but he needs to step up again on his previous form and he’d have made more appeal if an easier lead looked likely. CONTACT will need a bit of luck in running but if they go hard early as expected it could play into his hands and he’s take to finish fast and late at a decent price. One of the more difficult races though.

3.45 – Shergar Cup Sprint – 6f

The pace map for the final race on the card.

There are a couple of pace angles here so the race should be run at a decent clip. Bowman has looked far better on fast ground (or artificial surfaces) to date so there is the chance he is pulled out after some rain, although he’s been allowed to take his chance on soft ground before so seems likely to run and help set this up for something a little more patiently ridden.

If there is a non runner Crazy Luck would look fairly interesting. He’s shown good form with cut in the ground and bumped into another progressive sort last time out. The main reason for non runners here could be softening ground so the likelihood is if he gets a run, he’ll probably get his ground too.

Slightly unsurprinsgly though the three who are clear in the betting look those open to most progress though.

Royal Scimitar is completely unexposed at sprint trips. He won over 6f on his debut (runner up now rated 110) but raced over further until dropping back to this trip last time out in a hotly contested handicap restricted to 3yos at the July Festival. He’s 5lbs better off with Popmaster having finished a short head behind that rival in 4th but softening ground would be a concern - he’s been a non runner on good to soft and soft this season. He pulled away from his group in that Newmarket handicap in good style, only beaten by much higher drawn rivals, so could be a good thing if the rain stays away.

Popmaster’s best hope of beating Royal Scimitar has to be the rain. He seems pretty versatile with regards to the ground but is arguably better on slightly softer ground, he even ran well on heavy here during the Royal Meeting over what seems to be an inadequate 5f from a poor draw. His form in 6f handicaps reads 32231 and he’s still only 11lbs higher than when bumping into both Rohaan and Diligent Harry in a Lingfield handicap in March, that pair are now rated 25lbs and 20lbs higher respectively. He still looks feasibly handicapped, is very consistent, is proven at the course and won’t mind any rain.

If it does rain heavily Dream Composer is the potential fly in the ointment for Popmaster. He was 2 lengths ahead of Popmaster at Royal Ascot and he’s now 4lbs better off. He may have been much better drawn than Popmaster that day but he actually ended up making his challenge on the same part of the course and finished much more strongly so should be well enough fancied to confirm that form with the extra furlong looking a big positive. He was actually supposed to face Popmaster last time out at Doncaster but was a non runner because of the good to soft ground, perhaps an indication that he wants it really soft. He did seem to enjoy the heavy ground at Ascot after all.

Summary

Picking between the three favourites seems quite tricky and it has to be an extremely ground dependent decision. If there is very little rain and the ground is no worse than good then Royal Scimitar could be chanced, but even 4-5mm of rain might be too much for him to show his best as he seems to get on well with very fast ground.

POPMASTER is the least ground dependent of the trio and should run well whatever happens but ground just on the soft side of good could suit him perfectly, especially as it would probably be too slow for Royal Scimitar and too fast for Dream Composer.

On good to soft or worse Dream Composer might be narrowly favoured over Popmaster but even good to soft ground might be deemed too fast for connections of Dream Composer, even if he did win on good to soft at Carlisle earlier this term beating two subsequent winners in the process.

I’ve predicted good ground so I’ll stick with Popmaster but out of all the races on this card this is the one where the slightest going change would sway my decision more than any other so it may pay to wait until closer to the race or until the likely forecast is clearer.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 3 Preview, Tips

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 3 Preview, Tips

I’m taking over from Matt for day three of Royal Ascot, but don’t worry, Matt will be back tomorrow. Thursday can often be one of the toughest betting days and with no less than three big field handicaps bringing the curtain down on this card most will be looking for some early winners!

The biggest question mark hanging over Thursday’s racing is the weather, and of course it’s effect on the ground. There are thunderstorms forecast overnight from Wednesday into Thursday and everyone knows how unpredictable these can be. You can get hit with 40mm of rain whilst the next town along can get nothing. They put 10mm of water on the straight course on both Saturday and Monday just to keep it good to firm so it will take plenty of rain to soften this surface, but plenty of rain may well be coming.

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Not much to go on here! Early pace is no disadvantage over the minimum trip here and a high draw is generally preferable over this trip. If there is a real star in this field they’d be well capable of overcoming either of those biases though.

Wesley Ward won this in 2013 and 2018 and there will be no hanging around for his runners. Lucci appears to be the stable first string and given he won just a 4 runner race last time he’s very difficult to assess, other than he looks very quick! He could be difficult to peg back from his high draw. Stable mate Nakatomi beat 10 runners when winning his only start on the dirt last time, also showing loads of speed. What effect any rain has on this pair is unknown, but Wesley Ward’s contingent generally prefer fast ground.

Aidan O’Brien also has two wins in this in the past decade and he saddles Cadamosto here. Amazingly he’s been a non runner six times already this season, twice because of soft ground. His sire No Nay Never won this in 2013 and his progeny often act on softer ground so he wouldn’t be without a hope if plenty of rain does fall but stall 2 might not be ideal.

Clive Cox’s runners massively outperform market expectations at Royal Ascot and he won this in 2012 with Reckless Abandon. This year he is represented by Instinctive Move who won well at Bath last time out. That form has been let down a few times since.

Only one runner can boast two wins from two runs and that is William Haggas’ Second Wind. He’s led on both starts so far, defied a penalty in a novice race beating a subsequent winner, looks well drawn in stall 15 and could be interesting at a fair price.

Norfolk Stakes Tips

Lots of unknowns so difficult to bet with much confidence but SECOND WIND has fewer question marks than most and he’s also won on both good to firm and good to soft which is a bonus ahead of an unsettled weather forecast. It will be interesting to watch the Wesley Ward runners in the market regardless of what happens with the weather.

3.05 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

A likely short priced favourite here in the shape of Mohaafeth for William Haggas. He was relatively well fancied for the Derby before being pulled out because of the rain so he definitely won’t want to see lots of wet stuff and is likely to be withdrawn if the ground is on the soft side. He was impressive in a small field last time out at listed level and looks a very exciting son of Frankel.

One Ruler carries a 4lb penalty in this courtesy of his Group 3 Autumn Stakes victory last season and he faces a quick turnaround having been well beaten in the Derby just twelve days ago. Both his runs this term have come in Group 1 races so sixth places in both the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby can be forgiven and he might find this intermediate trip suits perfectly. He’s versatile with regards to the ground but is vulnerable to an improver.

One feature of this race is a potential lack of pace Aidan O’Brien’s Roman Empire looking the likely pace angle.

It’s not easy to make all over this course and distance, even with an easy lead, and he’ll need to improve to take this having been well enough beaten last time in the Dante.

Given a lack of strong pace it could pay to race prominently here. In handicaps in similar conditions prominent racers have a 47.62% place strike rate. Movin Time is likely to be prominent and he looked an improved performer at 3 when taking a maiden in fairly impressive style last time out. The runner up in that maiden won by 6 lengths next time out and runs in Wednesday’s Queen’s Vase and Movin Time looks capable of further progress over middle distances this season.

Hampton Court Stakes Tips

Not an easy race to figure out but it could be worth chancing MOVIN TIME to prove up to this level (and possibly better). He may enjoy a tactical advantage and whilst several of these have already tried and failed to win good races, he comes here very much on the up.

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo fillies)

A key form line here could be Newbury’s Fillies Trial Stakes in which the unbeaten Eshaada edged out Gloria Mundi with Aristea and Twisted Reality back in 3rd and 4th respectively. Gloria Mundi was well placed off a slow gallop that day and is poorest drawn of the quartet here so she could be worth taking on. Eshaada undoubtedly looks the one with most potential of the remaining trio and she’s also the best drawn here so she looks interesting, especially if there is rain.

John Gosden has won three of the last four renewals of this race and if he doesn’t win it with Gloria Mundi, the mount of Frankie Dettori, he still has chances with Taslima and Loving Dream. The former looked in need of further when third at listed level last time out. The winner of that race finished 2nd to Snowfall in the Oaks since so it wasn’t a bad listed race but you’d have preferred Taslima to have shown a bit more speed, even at 10f. Loving Dream was well enough beaten in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on soft ground and on his previous good ground 2nd she has plenty of work to do to reverse form with the better fancied Noon Star here.

In hindsight Noon Star’s 3.75 length defeat at the hands of Snowfall looks pretty good form. She’s impeccably bred being by Galileo out of Midday and looks the potential class act in the field, both on form so far and breeding, so she shouldn’t be underestimated.

Aidan O’Brien won this in 2014, 2016 and 2018 so anything he runs commends plenty of respect. This year’s sole runner is Divinely, who has looked happiest on a soft surface to date. It’s a quick turnaround after the Epsom Oaks though so whilst she’d have a decent chance on form, especially if it turns soft, she’ll need to have recovered quickly from a fairly tough race.

Ribblesdale Stakes Tips

An open contest which seems to be the feature of the day. NOON STAR looks a very promising type who has shown form on a variety of going so far which is enough to persuade me she could be the one in this. Eshaada is potentially the biggest danger whilst Divinely has the form to win this but he’s a risk after contesting the Oaks so recently.

4.15 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Can Stradivarius equal Yeats’ record four wins in a row in this? Rain would be considered a negative for him but he’s won this on soft for the past two years so it’s possible all rain does is make him a better price.

This definitely looks a tougher renewal than last year though. Tough front runner Subjectivist won’t mind any rain and although he’s yet to prove his stamina, he’s got better the further he has gone. Last year’s Derby winner Serpentine could hamper Subjectivist’s chances though by taking him on early.

Stamina was always going to be Trueshan’s forte as he made his second racecourse start over a mile and a half. He enjoyed the step up to two miles when beating Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup by a wide margin. That form shouldn’t be taken literally but Trueshan confirmed himself a smart horse when finishing runner up to Japan at Chester last month. He’s fairly ground dependent so will want as much rain as possible but if it comes he’d have a good chance.

Spanish Mission has improved as a stayer in the past year or so and won what was admittedly a pretty poor renewal of the Doncaster Cup last year. His Yorkshire Cup victory last time out was a career best when accounting for Santiago who reopposes here. He’s one that won’t want any rain and might not enjoy this test as much as some of the slowly run races he has been running in over shorter.

Connections will be hoping the extra distance can help Santiago reverse that form with Spanish Mission. He got within 2.25 lengths of Stradivarius at Goodwood last year and the key to this horse could be rain. His best performances seem to have come when getting cut in the ground and a combination of this trip on softish ground could see a career best, especially with a couple of front runners in the field.

Ascot Gold Cup Tips

The going will have a massive effect on this race. On faster ground STRADIVARIUS looks a very good thing to equal Yeats’ record. He can often come there like he’s going to win by a wide margin only to end up toughing it out. In fact eleven of his last twelve wins have come by a winning distance of 1.75 lengths or less which is relatively 'unimpressive' for a horse considered a bit of a superstar. If you can find an ‘unders’ bet on the winning distance that might make him much better value.

If the ground was to end up softer than good Stradivarius would still be the most likely winner but the each way value could swing towards SANTIAGO who is still unexposed as a stayer and has spent most of his career racing on ground that was probably faster than ideal.

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, class 2 handicap, 3yo)

All eyes will be on the Royal Hunt Cup ahead of placing any bets on this and that’s the race most likely to highlight a potential draw bias. Without the benefit of knowing the Hunt Cup result at the time of writing we’ll rely on the Geegeez data to give us the draw pointers.

The data suggests no strong draw bias here but it’s worth remembering that sometimes nearside is favoured and sometimes far side is favoured, which is why both sides of the draw have performed well. It can be easier to get a run when drawn on a flank and the pace data strongly suggests you want to be with something that is patiently ridden so backing central drawn hold up performers will often be riskier than wide drawn hold ups.

Mithras is the early market leader in this for Gosden and Dettori. He only just got home in a traditionally strong Newbury handicap on seasonal debut but this year’s renewal has worked out really poorly and the fact that Mithras was well enough beaten at Sandown next time out is very disappointing and in line with the form of that Newbury run, even if this latest run was in listed company. Perhaps the ground was too soft last time out (might be soft again here) but an 8lb rise for that narrow Newbury win might still be harsh and he could one to take on.

Air To Air is one I’ve had in mind for this race for a while, he looks one of those horses that will be ideally suited by Ascot’s straight mile. He’s been called a few names for seemingly not going through with his effort in the past but after being gelded in March he seems an improved horse. He may have been beaten over 4 lengths when odds on on his following start but he was the only one to make up any ground over what now seems an inadequate 7f. That race has worked out extremely well too.

Bowman, who very much got the run of the race, hasn’t run well since but the runner up has won three times since, the 3rd won on his next start and the 5th went close last time out. Air To Air has since won twice himself and he took apart a fairly decent field last time out on his first start over a mile. He’s a bit more exposed than some but he’s improving and looks the typical Spencer sort on this straight course. His latest win came on fast ground but his previous win in novice company came on soft ground. That softer ground might not be perfect for him but at least he’s proved his versatility.

Roger Varian won this last year and assuming his reserve doesn’t get in he has two high drawn runners in this. Raadobarg has won all three starts this season including the Silver Bowl at Haydock in heavy ground last time out. He’s chased leaders in all three starts this season and could end up too close to the pace, plus he’ll want plenty of rain. Dinoo is the other one for Varian. He’s still a maiden after three runs but split two 100+ rated horses on debut on fast ground before blowing the start in a Group 3 on his second and final start last season. He was once again slowly away in a maiden this season and poorly placed off a modest gallop. You’d hope with a mark of 93 he could have overcome this sort of thing but the mile promises to suit and he could run well if the ground stays fast.

A 7lb rise for winning a 5 runner handicap by less than a length seems a harsh punishment for Aerion Power’s latest success but he shouldn’t be underestimated. The runner up and 3rd came out of that contest and won making that 7lb rise look a bit more acceptable. Stall 1 and a prominent racing style are offputting though and he’d appeal more for something like the mile handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day or one of the 3yo handicaps at the July Festival the following week.

Britannia Stakes Tips

Many of the fancied runners in this seem quite likely to race not far off the pace which is rarely the place to be over the straight mile, especially in this race where there is a lot of early pace spread across the track. Perhaps some will be ridden more patiently but nothing is likely to be ridden with more patience than AIR TO AIR. Confidence would be increased if the ground gets no softer than good and if some of the lower drawn runners go close in the Royal Hunt Cup.

5.35 King George V Stakes (1m4f, class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Only a handicap but often won by a very smart sort, last year’s winner Hukum scored at Group 3 level later in the season. The draw may have a fairly large bearing on the result here.

A massive 17 of last 24 12f handicaps with 16 runners or more on ground ranging from good to firm down to good to soft have been won by double figure draws. Low draws have a PRB of just 0.41 with middle draws and high draws earning PRBs of 0.54 and 0.55. Fairly strong preference would be for something breaking from stall 8 or higher and this information hopefully makes narrowing down this difficult field a little easier.

Handicap debutant Nagano heads the market early for Roger Varian and he’s going to have to be extremely useful to win this from stall 2. He looks at least fairly handicapped off 94 based on his win over Mystical Dawn on his penultimate run (that runner has since gone close off 90) but he’s difficult to back from this draw in such a competitive race.

This is often won by a top trainer so it’s a surprise that John Gosden hasn’t had the winner of this since 1997. He runs First Light here who might be just about okay in stall 7, for all higher would probably have been better. Some will see form with John Leeper and be drawn to that but in that race, when First Light was 3rd, Moktasaab was 2nd, 2.5 lengths ahead of First Light, and he’s since been beaten in a handicap off 79. First Light has since won a soft ground Ripon maiden by 12 lengths but that race didn’t take much winning and there are probably better handicapped rivals, especially if it doesn’t turn soft here.

Sir Lamorack represents Aidan O’Brien who won this in 2019 and he seems to have a nice draw in 11. He ran on soft and heavy as a 2yo but his two runs this season have come on the all weather and good ground. He was withdrawn at Chester due to good to soft ground which might be an indication this runner will want the rain to stay away. He’s already proved himself in handicaps, he was an easy winner of a 10f handicap at Leopardstown last time out and the placed horses from that have placed again so it was okay form. He’s up 15lbs for that win so he’ll need to improve for the step up in trip, which he should do.

Kondo Isami is interesting on his York form. He beat Tashkhan by a short head there and Tashkhan won 3.25 lengths next time out. That runner actually reopposes here but Kondo Isami is 8lbs better off this time around so should have no problem confirming form. Kondo Isami got collared late on next time out at Doncaster over further and he might not have quite stayed, but he was also beaten by a runner completing a four timer so it wasn’t a bad effort. He looks Mark Johnston’s best chance and is well enough drawn in 9.

If the ground got very testing one who might prove overpriced is Act Of Wisdom. He was a heavy ground winner over 10f as a 2yo which suggests he’ll be a strong stayer and fast ground didn’t suit last time out at Newmarket. That 5th last time was still a good effort though with the winner and 3rd winning next time out. From stall 14 he could outrun his odds if the word soft appears in the going by race time.

King George V Stakes Tips

Plenty in this who could be anything and it’s a race that is potentially more interesting going forward than it is a betting medium here. If having a punt the value in this contest could lie with KONDO ISAMI if the ground is no worse than good, he’ll enjoy a likely fast pace and has plenty in his favour. If it’s softer than good then ACT OF WISDOM would come into the equation and he could be a bit underestimated in this. They might not be as potentially well handicapped as some but are both capable of running into a place at least granted suitable ground conditions.

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

What an easy race to end the card with! As usual in these contests the draw and pace will play their part. By the time this race is run there may be a clear draw bias to either side but without that information at the time of writing it seems an advantage to be drawn in either low double figures or very high (20+).

There isn’t such a need to be held up over this distance as there is on the straight mile. There is still some benefit to being patiently ridden but early pace holds up much better than it does in big fields over a furlong further.

You don’t see many 3yos run in this but William Haggas heads the early betting with Aldaary. He’s a course and distance winner but might have been better served by a mile and he’ll definitely want the rain.

Boardman is interesting chasing a four timer. The way he travels through his races means he should be ideally suited by this course but he’s potentially drawn a little lower than ideal in 9. He beat Ejtilaab last time out and that horse won his next start. He’s another that wants a little bit of rain.

One that won’t want the rain is Karibana who was a bit of an eyecatcher on soft ground here in May before winning at Chelmsford, nailing a well handicapped front runner on the line. He looks like he’d be ideally suited by fast ground at this course and although stall 11 is okay statistically a higher draw might have been preferable.

Persuasion has to be of some interest. He’s looks to have been saved for this since winning at Haydock six weeks ago.

The runner up has won since from a 3lb higher mark, the 4th went extremely close next time out on ground that didn’t suit and has the chance to frank the form on Wednesday in the finale and even the 5th went close on his first run on fast ground since. Persuasion only went up 3lbs for that win and whilst most of his form is on faster ground, he has finished 2nd on heavy ground so even if the ground softens he should be fine. Stall 24 looks good at this stage.

Buckingham Palace Stakes Tips

If the ground stayed on the fast side I’d be inclined to forgive Karibana for stall 11 (low double figures do have a decent record after all) and get involved each way. If betting early or simply looking for a solid selection in this contest PERSUASION seems to tick all the boxes and he can even be backed if the bad weather hits the course as he should be fine regardless of underfoot conditions, something that can’t be said about many here. The majority of the pace in this race is drawn high which could give Persuasion an extra edge over Karibana, even if the ground stays fast.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Victoria Cup Preview: Roger Varian Fancied For Back To Back Success

Some nice racing awaits on Saturday but there is no doubt about the main betting race of the day, the Victoria Cup at Ascot which will be run at 3.40pm and shown live on ITV4. Just the 29 runners go to post and we haven’t had much soft ground this season so there is every chance the form book gets turned on it’s head.

On the subject of the ground, it’s good to soft at the time of writing with 10mm+ forecast for late morning and early afternoon on Saturday so there is every chance this will be run on proper soft ground.

Draw

First let’s take a look at a possible draw advantage on softer ground over this course and distance.

Not a massive sample of races but some big fields so the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) should be pretty reliable. This suggests high (PRB of 0.53) is most favoured, followed by low (0.51) and then middle is worst of all (0.46). The Ascot draw bias can change from one side to another from race to race and meeting to meeting which is potentially why each wing performs better than the middle.

Every metric appears to reinforce that there is a bias towards high drawn runners here.

Looking back at recent runnings of the Victoria Cup, there was no race last year due to covid but in 2019 seven of the first eight finishers were drawn in double figures. In 2018 the race was run on good to firm but once again the double figure stalls dominated, producing eight of the first nine home. In 2017 the best placed single figure stall was 12th and 2014 was the penultimate time this race was run with cut in the ground and ten of the first eleven finishers were drawn stall 16 or higher. At this time of year it certainly seems a high draw can be very advantageous.

To add some balance though, the last Victoria Cup to be run on truly soft ground was in 2012 and the first four places were all filled by horses drawn 8 or lower, so we can’t be 100% sure high draws will be favoured.

Looking at the individual stall data it seems either very low or very high is often the place to be. Sorted by PRB3, which takes an average including the stalls either side of each gate, the top eleven performers are either 20+ or 5 or lower. Perhaps it’s just far easier to get a run if you are drawn on a flank.

Pace

Now let’s examine pace here at 7f.

This is probably the fairest data you will find over any course and distance, with no more than 3.2% between any of the run styles according to the place data, which considers more data than any other metric here. Racing prominently gives the best place percentage on this sort of ground (20.59%) whilst front runners do least well (17.39%). There is no surprise that front running is the least effective tactic here given it’s a straight, stiff 7f and we are only looking at big fields.

Both front runners and prominent racers produce a level stakes profit if backed each way, whilst mid division and held up produce a loss. There is clearly a slight overestimation of the effectiveness of the more patiently ridden types, who have perhaps caught the eye elsewhere finishing well.

Victoria Cup Pace Map

Given the even pace data we have, the pace map for this race could tell us which runners are likely to be most advantaged by the run of the race.

There is potentially pace spread evenly across the track but there isn’t a lot of it. Marshal Dan tends to lead and he is drawn in stall 3 whilst Jack’s Point (12) usually leads or slots in close to the leaders and Sunset Breeze, drawn highest of all, could take the high numbers into the race. None of the above are absolute trailblazers though and this race isn’t guaranteed to be run at a breakneck pace which could compromise the chances of those that come from the back or perhaps those who are better at a mile than 7f.

Draw and Pace Combination

One last thing to look at before we go through the runners. The draw and pace combination heat map shows us the best run styles for each draw, and the best draws for each run style.

It seems as though those that are drawn low are best off ridden as patiently as possible, with a very respectable PRB of 0.60 for low drawn hold ups. Prominent rides also do well from low draws but front runners from both low or middle seemingly do much less well than high drawn front runners.

Hold up performers drawn in the middle seem to perform a little below par. This makes sense as they either have to go through the most traffic or switch wide to get a clear run. Either way it's a disadvantage.

Meanwhile all run styles from a high draw overperform, with mid division or a prominent run style most favoured.

The Runners

In this section I will analyse the chances of the main competitors, whilst also pinpointing a few at bigger prices who might outrun their odds.

Acquitted

One I fancied to go well last week in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on the strength of his Spring Mile 2nd but he was withdrawn as the ground was too fast. To go over that Spring Mile form again, seven of the first nine home have run since and all but one of those has finished at least 2nd giving it a really strong look.

He’s handicapped to win a good race and the drop back to 7f here shouldn’t inconvenience, he’s a smooth enough traveller who has looked like winning a furlong out on a couple of occasions only to be caught close home.

There is a ground question mark though. He’s been withdrawn on fast ground and has won on heavy so most will assume he wants it soft. However when he won on heavy it was only a maiden and the jockey said he didn’t enjoy the ground. He flopped on soft ground here at Ascot last season, admittedly over 10f which was too far, but Hugo Palmer has also recently stated that he probably doesn’t want it softer than good. There is a fair chance this could be too soft for him in a race this competitive. Should be well drawn in 20.

Fox Champion

Back to form last time out having been gelded and switched yards over the winter. Ralph Beckett has a really strong record with horses he receives from other yards so whilst he could be expected to improve after 168 days off the track, that improvement might not be forthcoming.

He’s well handicapped on his old form and runs off the same mark as when a creditable 3rd in a strong enough handicap at Haydock last time but the ground is a bigger question mark for this runner than it is Acquitted. Fox Champion has run three times on ground that is good to soft or softer outside of novice company and he’s barely beaten a rival home in all three runs. Stall 2 could be a positive but also potentially a negative.

Raising Sand

Nine year old course specialist who has had fifteen of his last eighteen runs here. He’s arguably better over this 7f than a mile (last two wins have come over this distance and off higher marks than his mile wins) and his 7f record at Ascot away from fast ground reads 431410.

This will be his first run of the season but Jamie Osbourne’s runners in the past month that have returned from a 60+ day break have outperformed his runners who have had a run so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

He has run relatively poorly on three of his last four starts though and it could be age is catching up with him. He did run well first time out last season in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 8th in a strong renewal and doing best of those drawn low. He’s also dropped to his last winning mark and has the useful Saffie Osbourne claiming 7lbs. She had a winner and a 4th on the straight track from two rides here recently. Potentially well drawn but might benefit from a stronger pace than seems likely.

Chiefofchiefs

A surprise winner of last season’s Wokingham here and followed that up with a staying on 4th back here over 7f in July. He’s now 1lb lower than that most recent effort here and although he has a mixed record on softer ground, he stayed on extremely well in soft at Doncaster in November over 6f proving he copes with this at the very least.

He reappeared at Doncaster in good enough form, getting a luckless passage again at listed level over 6f, looking in need of further or a stiffer track. Not badly handicapped and most things in his favour here but he’d want them to go hard up front and being drawn in the middle isn’t great for one that likes to be dropped out. He’ll need plenty of luck but is capable of running very well.

Motakhayyel

Winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes last season so this course and distance is no problem for him. He followed that up with a win in the Bunbury Cup from Sir Busker, who has rated 9lbs higher since. He wasn’t in the same form in two more starts later in the season, not as effective over a mile but the distance not solely to blame.

Returned in good enough form this season when runner up to Toro Strike at Thirsk but almost certainly not quite running to his lofty mark of 111 on that occasion. He brings form figures of 12112 at 7f into this and should win a decent race this season but might not want it as soft as it ends up here if the forecast rain hits.

Escobar

The highlight of his ten runs at Ascot was a success in the Balmoral Handicap in 2019, beating Lord North. His only two runs here since have come in Group 1 company. He ran well on his last two course and distance runs, seemingly finding the test a bit sharp on both occasions.

He has been largely out of form until finishing 3rd last time out at Haydock. That race lacked depth though and he needs to improve again to feature here. He’ll be of more interest in the Royal Hunt Cup next month.

Jumaira Bay

Relatively lightly raced, from a powerful yard and lots of interesting form angles. He started last season with a close 2nd to Nugget, who is now rated 21lbs higher (Jumaira Bay is now just 11lbs higher). On his next start he was 3rd to 2 runners who have won off higher marks since and perhaps his most interesting piece of form was his 2nd at York on his third run last season. He was just a short head behind Brunch (now rated 16lbs higher) and Jumaira Bay is only 5lbs higher than that effort.

He didn’t react well to cheekpieces later that season but seemed to take to blinkers better, firstly staying on well from an impossible position at Kempton over a mile to finish 3rd and then finishing a close 2nd in heavy ground at Newbury over 7f, ridden more prominently on that occasion.

There is a lot to suggest he’s well handicapped still but it’s disappointing he wasn’t able to win a handicap last season, for all he bumped into some well handicapped runners. He’s been gelded since and sports no headgear here so is perhaps considered more the finished article now. He needs to go up in the weights to get into any of the Royal Ascot handicaps so should be ready to go first time up.

Keyser Soze

Won for the first time in over two years last time out over course and distance, mastering a well handicapped runner late on. He’s up just 2lbs but this race is much tougher and he was very well placed in that contest. He’s not necessarily one you’d trust to follow up and has generally been best suited by decent ground so any extra rain is probably a negative.

River Nymph

A difficult runner to weigh up. He looked a big improver last summer when bolting up in two 7f handicaps. The first came over course and distance and the second when beating two subsequent winners.

His form in two runs since has been far less impressive though. He flopped badly in the Balmoral Handicap in October and didn’t run well in the Lincoln this season either. On both occasions it looked more than the distance that beat him which is worrying. If he came here off the back of his last win he’d be a very warm order but for all he could bounce back and bolt up, he’s extremely risky in his current form. Conditions in his favour though.

Sunset Breeze

Some excellent form to his name. Ran Double Or Bubble within a head over course and distance in September and that horse absolutely bolted up at Newmarket on his next start. Then bumped into A well handicapped Tranchee  (now rated 14lbs higher) at Doncaster. He’s proven on soft and over 7f but yet to prove he’s truly suited by 7f on soft, possibly a little speedy for this sort of contest. Undoubtedly well handicapped and probably well drawn too in stall 29.

Symbolize

He’s run well enough in three goes here on soft ground, finding the mile trip a bit far on his last attempt in the Balmoral Handicap. Nothing wrong with his reappearance when 2nd (well positioned) behind easy and progressive winner but difficult to make a case for him being well handicapped off a mark of 103. Probably well drawn but looks the type to finish just outside the places.

Karibana

Progressive last season and still room for improvement. Doesn’t necessarily need to improve as his last 2nd has worked out well with the winner and 3rd both successful on their next starts. Big field scenarios suit but he has never raced on anything softer than good, which seems by design. The sire was a heavy ground winner and several of his offspring have won on heavy so there is hope he’ll cope with dig in the ground. Richard Hughes’ runners have a PRB of 0.59 in handicaps in the past 30 days and that goes up to 0.69 if only looking at runners having their first run in 60+ days so he should be ready to go and stall 18 should be fine.

Walhaan

Runner up to River Nymph over course and distance last summer, beaten two lengths but not seen to anywhere near best effect. Ran well again here over a mile behind Tempus a couple of runs later, probably didn’t stay in the Cambridgeshire and then below par on heavy ground on his final run of the season. Capable off this mark but took a couple of runs to get going last season. It's also worth mentioning this will be his debut for James Tate, who has a respectable PRB of 0.5 and a win strike rate of 16.67% with runners making their debuts having joined from other stables in the past five years according to the Trainer Change report.

Greenside

Invariably runs well in defeat in these big handicaps. He was 2nd in a big field here over 7f on soft in October 2019 and then 3rd in the Balmoral Handicap last season but Marco Ghiani claimed 7lbs and 5lbs respectively in those races and now claims just 3lbs. He can run respectably again but difficult to see him winning.

On A Session

In good form in both runs for a new yard this year, 2nd in the Lincoln Trial and then 4th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Was well placed in both but that latest run came on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He’d have a serious chance based on his most recent run over 7f on soft ground and looks overpriced from a potentially good draw with the likelihood he’ll be well placed yet again.

Ropey Guest

Has run some good races here in the past and was half a length behind Symbolize in the Jersey Stakes last season. He’s 5lbs better off here so whilst Symbolize has already proven his well being this season, Ropey Guest has every chance of finishing in front of that rival here. He’s one that could outrun his odds from what’s probably a good draw having been gelded over the winter.

Cold Stare

A massive eyecatcher at Redcar on seasonal debut on ground that would have been far too fast. Below par last time out (again on fast ground) but that’s no great surprise. He’s run poorly over course and distance three times on fast ground but was 7th two seasons ago here on soft and that came off a 9lb higher mark. He won off the mark and it’s a case of the softer the better for him. Slight question mark over stall 5 though, for all it has a decent record.

The Verdict

Where do you start? There’s the more progressive ones such as Acquitted, Jumaira Bay, Sunset Breeze and Karibana, all of whom ran well on their latest starts. Then there’s the course specialists Raising Sand, Chiefofchiefs and to a certain extent Greenside. There’s also On A Session who seems to have a lot in his favour, but he appeals more as a place only bet than an each way.

Raising Sand appeals most of the more exposed ones. He has pretty much everything in his favour here, it’s just a question of how much ability still remains at the age of 9. If he can reproduce his 2019 form he’d have an excellent chance but there has to be a little doubt about that.

It’s possible the ground could get too soft for Acquitted and he still has to prove himself at this trip so despite looking very well handicapped he’s too much of a risk at the price. Sunset Breeze and Karibana still need to prove 7f on soft ground is for them so they too are reluctantly passed over, for all Sunset Breeze has won on soft and has gone close over 7f. It may well seem stupid to have gone against him once the race has been run.

JUMAIRA BAY seems overpriced though in this at around 18/1 at the time of writing. Roger Varian knows how to get more out of these 4yo handicappers and he demonstrated several pieces of strong form last season that suggest he’s well handicapped still. He’s interesting having been gelded with the headgear taken off. Ray Dawson has won three of his last seven races at Ascot, including one of these big 7f handicaps last season so that’s a bonus too. There have to be some doubts about stall 11 but Roger Varian did win the last renewal of this race with Cape Byron who broke from stall 10.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns

Course Form Could Prove Crucial In Tough Ascot Handicap

With Haydock’s card still in doubt we head to Ascot for Saturday’s preview, specifically the bet365 Handicap Chase which will be run at 3pm. The race will be shown on ITV4 and looks a fiendishly difficult puzzle to solve but as usual the aim of this preview will be to shed some light on possible angles using the brilliant form tools on offer with Geegeez Gold.

Pace

As usual we begin with pace to find what run style might be best suited to this contest here.

The Pace Analyser shows us that this sort of distance at Ascot on the chase course often most suits those who race prominently. We don’t have a huge amount of data here admittedly but the win percentage and place percentage figures speak massively in favour of prominent racers and from just 10 races prominent runners have produced a huge Win PL of 62.5 and an IV of 2.44.

Front runners are next best according to the data we have ahead of mid division and then hold up performers.

If we narrow things down further to races run only on soft or heavy ground we lose some of our data so I’ve included slightly smaller fields too to add some more data in. In total we are looking at seven races and five of those have been won by prominent racers. Prominent racers have also provided twice as many placed finishers as any other running style. Front runners and prominent racers combined have produced 60% of the placed horses from less than 50% of the runners.

Let’s have a look at the pace map for this race:

There could be a contested pace here with Colorado Doc, Bennys King and Dashel Drasher all likely to be keen to get on with things. Of that trio Bennys King is the only one who has proven he can dominate and win in big fields at this kind of level.

Prominent racers were most favoured by the course pace analysis and Young Wolf, Espoir De Guye and Good Boy Bobby seem most likely to fill those prominent positions just off the pace.

Instant Expert

Instant Expert is always extremely useful in races of this nature. Let’s first take a look at the place data across all codes:

Now the win data, only for chases:

Both are sorted by course record as I always like proven right handed form at right handed courses over jumps, especially course form.

Good Boy Bobby and Jerrysback seem most reliable in this sort of going, the former has extensive experience in soft or heavy ground and seems guaranteed to go through it with few problems. The runners with the biggest going questions marks are relatively unconsidered in the betting it seems.

Plenty of runners have a decent record of at least placing in class 2 races. Espoir De Guye has won both his chases in class 2 company whilst Dashel Drasher and Acting Lass are both 2 from 3 in class 2 races. Good Boy Bobby may have failed to win in both his class 2 chases but he was runner up in both contests so shouldn’t be judged harshly.

Bennys King and Dashel Drasher both have a 100% record of placing at Ascot whilst Espoir De Guye and Acting Lass are 2 from 3 and 2 from 4 respectively in terms of placing. There are six course chase winners in the field. Espoir De Guye has 2 wins from 3 runs here with Dashel Drasher the only horse showing off a 100% win record over these fences.

Good Boy Bobby has not yet raced here which can’t be held against him but what does stand out as a worry is his failure to win in four runs at this kind of trip.

It was previously mentioned that Benny’s King has proven he can dominate big fields, he has won two of his three races in this sort of field size whilst Espoir De Guye is one from two.

So according to Instant Expert Espoir De Guye, Dashel Drasher are potentially amongst the most solid contenders, for all Dashel Drasher is unproven in big fields, with Gold Old Bobby having a fair few question marks hanging over him for one that is so well fancied in the betting.

Trainers

With Ascot such a prestigious track it could be interesting to see how each of the trainers involved here perform at the course. For this we can use the Query Tool.

Sean Curran comes out on top in terms of course IV from the past five years but with just two runners in that time we can’t draw too many conclusions. That’s certainly not a negative for the chances of Domaine De L’Isle though.

Jeremy Scott has also had limited qualifying runners from two from seven is a very good strike rate and that would be a another plus for Dashel Drasher.

Of the trainers with much more experience here over the past five years Harry Fry, Paul Nicholls, Venetia Williams, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Philip Hobbs all have more than their fair share of winners whilst the records of Jonjo O’Neill, Brian Ellison and Philip Kirby are less than impressive, although the latter two trainers have only had limited runners here.

Jockeys

Going can have an effect on jockey performance so let’s take a look at how these jockeys have performed here at Ascot on soft or heavy ground over the past five years:

Matt Griffiths, jockey for Dashel Drasher, has only had one ride here on soft or heavy but it was a victorious one and it would be quite remarkable if he could make it two from two here. Brian Hughes and Harry Skelton, who ride Windsor Avenue and Bennys King respectively, both have more experience and strong records here on testing ground.

The data suggests Harry Cobden, Sean Bowen and Daryl Jacob underperform at Ascot in soft or heavy ground so that is possibly a negative against the chances of Capeland, Acting Lass and Good Boy Bobby.

Verdict

Good Boy Bobby does have some questions to answer but he certainly brings strong form into this. His Cheltenham run a month ago, when 4th, has been working out nicely with three subsequent winners in behind and the winner going on to finish a decent 3rd next time. He’s short enough in the betting though so happy enough to leave him alone.

Bennys King is well proven around here and for him it’s mainly a question over whether he’s still well enough handicapped to win a race like this. He should run well but could be slightly vulnerable for win purposes.

Dashel Drasher has lots going for him and is two from two at Ascot over fences and hurdles. Ability to run well in bigger fields can be overlooked in races like this and he wasn’t at his best in bigger fields earlier in his career and much of his best form has come in smaller fields so he could be worth opposing here.

Espoir De Guye’s name kept popping up in Instant Expert as a solid contender and he represents a trainer that does pretty well here for a jockey that does pretty well here in testing conditions. He’s still lightly raced, proven at Ascot and should be well enough placed. He clearly didn’t stay 3m on his last run and a return to this trip will suit (he wouldn’t mind dropping even further in trip in all likelihood). He’s a fair enough price for an each way punt in what looks a really tricky race.



Try Tix for Better Tote Returns