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Sat TV Trends: 24th Oct 2020

Bundles going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham – As always we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle…….Can leading Irish handler Aidan O’Brien land his tenth Vertum Futurity Trophy?

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and highlight the best profiles of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

2.55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

 

16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/18 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 - Foaled in February or later
15/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
10/18 – Had won over a mile in the past
7/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 7)
4/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

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3.35 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

 

4.10 – Teddington RBL Poppy Appeal Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

 

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

8/11 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/11 – Placed in their last race
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Quel Destin (1st 7/2) won the race in 2019
 

2.40 – Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had run over hurdles at Cheltenham in the past (3 won)
7/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

 

3.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/11 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/11 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Irish Bred
2/11 – Mare winners
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Winning favourites
Tobefair (8/1) won this race in 2019



3.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/13 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/13 – First run of the season
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/13 – Rated 134 or higher
9/13 – Irish bred winners
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Unplaced in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/13 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning Favourites
The Conditional (14/1) won the race in 2019
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 13th June 2020

Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues. And, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends and stats.

At Newbury, the Group 3 Diomed Stakes (3.35) is their feature contest, while at Sandown the sprinters are in action for the Listed Scurry Stakes (2:40).

 

So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.

Let’s get started!

 

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Newbury Horse Racing Trends

1:50 - It’s Not Rocket Science With MansionBet Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is only 2 from 37 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 24 riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:25 - Watch And Bet With MansionBet At Newbury Maggie Dickson Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Winners came between stalls 4-6 (inc)
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Had won over 7f in the past
3/3 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
0/3 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/1
Trainer Ed Walker won this race 12 months ago
Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas has a 37% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand is 0-from-31 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

Note: This race is normally run at Musselburgh

 

3:00 - British Stallion Studs EBF/MansionBet Abingdon Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-4
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3:35 - MansionBet Beaten By A Head Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/17 – Ridden by William Buick
Zaaki won the race in 2019
Century Dream won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Note: This race is normally run at Epsom

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

2:05 - Sutton Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is only 4 from 52 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

2:40 - Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/15 – Came from stall 7 or higher
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/15 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/15 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

3:15 - Claygate Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 42% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Jamie Osborne has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 2 from 30 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 30% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track