Tag Archive for: Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Preview

Glorious Goodwood 2023: Day 1 Preview, Pointers, Tips

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The wonderful carnival of racing that is the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or always 'Glorious Goodwood' to many, commences on Tuesday and there is a glut of top class racing and, indeed, races full stop. Eight contests punctuate the opening day, beginning with a big field five furlong sprint handicap and headlined later on by the Group 2 Lennox Stakes, arguably the best seven-furlong race in the British calendar, and the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

My approach this week will be more short hand than has been historically the case, with one race previewed in depth and the remainder given the pointer treatment: I'll suggest what I think are some of the more material factors to consider in your own deliberations. I might lob in a selection or three where I feel that's appropriate. Anyway, you'll see what I mean as we proceed...

The going is currently good to soft, good in places, with plenty of rain forecast. The latest live weather station readings are here.

1.40 Coral Handicap (5f Handicap 4yo+, Class 2)

15 runners in what I suspect will be wet ground. Draw and pace will be factors but so too will an ability to handle the conditions of a big field and soft turf. These are more exposed runners so Instant Expert is a decent port of call. One horse stands out there: last year's Group 2 King George Stakes second over course and distance, Raasel.

The winner that day was Khaadem, subsequently a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner, and Raasel has been running very well in Group company this season. His Goodwood record is 112 and he handles all going. If there is a draw bias it might be towards low numbers, so trap four will be right in the mix. My only slight niggle is his general waited with run style, but he's tractable in that regard and could get a slightly more forward ride here.

Look for horses that can handle, the going, grade and, if they all go, field size. Then look for bookmakers offering bonus places!

2.15 British EBF Maiden Stakes (6f maiden, 2yo, Class 2)

Not really a race I know anything about. Perhaps look to Goodwood trainers such as Charlie Johnston (taking over from his dad but well advertised as having plotted a squad for this meeting), Andrew Balding and, to a lesser extent, Karl Burke and Charles Hills. Richard Hannon runs a lot of horses in Glorious Goodwood 2yo non-handicaps and occasionally hits the target, but he is expensive to follow (-55% ROI since 2016).

Nine of the last ten winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter, though the other was 100/1! The balance of probabilities is that the market will have this winner in its crosshairs.

2.50 Chesterfield Cup Handicap (1m2f Handicap, 4yo+, Class 2)

Team Johnston have won this four times since 2014 and usually at a price, so Outbreak is of immediate interest. He's up in trip from a mile to ten furlongs but was a length third over this range in a valuable handicap on the All-Weather Finals day consolation card. Showing at 14/1 with Sky - six places - that's plausibly playable on the trainer angle alone. The going may make things more testing, which is a concern, but he's a square price to have a cut at.

Moktasaab was third in this last year off a five pound higher mark and will benefit from a waiting ride from Hayley Turner, a fine exponent of such tactics. He's quite likely to have been 'jobbed up' for this and is 12/1 with the same firm and the same place concession.

3.25 Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2, 2yo)

The first Group race of the week is a two year old event over seven furlongs. Winners of this have typically been strong market fancies, though it was a 14/1 shot that prevailed a year ago.

It's a bit too tricky for me.

4.00 Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2, 3yo+)

An excellent race in prospect, and a clear and obvious favourite in Kinross. He was second in the race last year when ridden by Frankie Dettori, and that man remains in the saddle, as he has been in three subsequent wins the most recent of which was the Group 1 Champions Sprint over six good to soft furlongs. He ran well when third in the July Cup last time, again over six, and looks ready to return to seven-eighths. I think he'll win for all that that's a mightily unoriginal observation.

Of his rivals, I am not yet convinced by Isaac Shelby, whose second in the French 2000 Guineas has yet to be backed up by this lad. That said, he's had only the one spin since, when fourth to Paddington in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot; the thinking may be that a true run mile stretches him whereas he can use his turn of foot over seven. Still, he's got it to prove, to me at least.

Pogo has plenty of classy runs to his name which, being a seven-year-old, he's had more chance to achieve. He seems to go on any ground and seven looks his best trip. I can see him running a nice race without having the class or youth to beat them all.

Al Suhail was less than three lengths behind Kinross in the G2 Park Stakes over seven at Donny last September and has picked up a packet of prize money in Dubai at the trip this spring. He ran a creditable race over six at Royal Ascot and can step forward again here. The Park Stakes third was on soft as is most of his best form.

A possible lone pace angle is Audience, who is a steady improver this season for the Gosden squad. He won two back in a fair handicap and then bolted up on seasonal debut this term in a Group 3 a month ago, Jumby his closest pursuer at a distance of two lengths. There are not many miles on his clock and, if he handles the ground - unraced on softer than good - he could be hard to peg back.

That was Jumby's sole defeat in his last five starts, progressing from a Class 3 conditions race to a Group 2 score in the Hungerford last time. He has it to prove on the slow ground but has an otherwise attractive profile.

Closest to 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean twice at the tail end of last season was Indestructible, and he opened his portfolio this year with a score in the Craven Stakes. He's since been battered in both the 2000G and the St J's P and has a good bit to prove at this point in terms of whether he's trained on (and whether his form is good enough anyway).

Winner of the Vintage Stakes last year, over the same course and distance, and also Group 2, was Marbaan. He returns to familiar climes then and may end up the pick of the three-year-olds. That said, Holguin has soft ground form aplenty and comes here off the back of a Listed 7f win at Chester last time. This, naturally, is a step up - two steps up - but conditions fit.

The best horse in this race on official figures, RPR's and Topspeed numbers is Kinross, and he also gets pretty much optimal conditions. Frankie needs to guard against tactical pitfalls in a race where the progressive Audience may get a soft lead; but he rarely misfires on the bigger stages and I think he'll win.

He's an unexciting price but it's hard to find an alternative bet: things look competitive for the places. Audience should get the run of it, while Holguin and Al Suhail are well suited to the conditions; meanwhile, Pogo is a warhorse at this level and Jumby may not be done with his upgrades yet.

But they're all a few pounds behind last year's second, KINROSS.

4.35 Goodwood Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 3yo+)

This looks very competitive indeed with four horses separated by one pound on official ratings. The least exposed is the Gold Cup winner from Royal Ascot, Courage Mon Ami, and that is reflected in his top of the market status. Coltrane, proven on softer turf, where CMA is not, looks a playable alternative to the jolly, though he does have a tendency to find one too good. He's hyper consistent.

At bigger prices Tashkhan stays well and loves the mud, but he has a good bit to find on the form; and Giavellotto is another who could feature. Very tricky.

5.05 Coral Fillies' Handicap (1m, Class 3, 3yo+)

You very likely need to be drawn low to win this. So far, first place has gone to the fillies drawn 1, 5, 5, 7, 15, 2, 3. The winner from 15 ended up winning the next season's Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot so was very smart. Unless there's an equally smart one in here I'd be staying low.

A feature of this field is there looks to be a ton of early speed on, so I'm now favouring low and midfield to held up. That gives me a tentative small stakes shortlist of Back See Daa, Miss Mojito and System (four length 5th in this last year).

Good luck, and don't blame me if trap 20 wins!

5.35 World Pool Fillies' Handicap (6f, Class 3, 3yo+)

If it's genuinely soft, high draws will have it all to do as the heatmap below outlines.

 

A handy position also looks helpful, which brings in plenty:

 

Kitai is a Johnston runner that fits the bill, but it's clearly tricky trappy truly treacherous territory.

Good luck.

Matt

Glorious Goodwood 2020: Day 1 Preview, Tips

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In this week of this concertinaed and truncated whirlwind season in this topsy-turvy year, racing hosts its summer landmark Glorious Goodwood festival. Without crowds for the first four of five days, the final card on Saturday will welcome racegoers to a British track for the first time since mid-March. Hallelujah for that: on, and up.

To the racing and, for the first four days of Goodwood - the Qatar Goodwood Festival to give it its correct name - I'll be offering some daily thoughts on the action. Readers are advised to familiarise themselves with the content of this draw and pace article, both elements having a strong bearing on proceedings under certain conditions at the Sussex Downs venue.

I'm taking the chance that the going will be good on the opening day and, with a dry week forecast, tightening up to good to firm later in the week. Day One is Tuesday 28th July, and the feature race is the Goodwood Cup, a Group 1. But before that, and more briefly than is often the case, we commence at 1.10 with the...

1.10 EBF Fillies' Handicap (1m, Class 3 0-95, 3yo+)

A three-year-old-plus handicap where eight of the twelve declarations are of the Classic generation. They receive both an eight pound weight for age allowance and are generally open to more improvement, a double whammy against their elders.

John Gosden is in bamboozling form right now as the below image demonstrates, and he saddles handicap debutant Wasaayef. Gosden has struck at a 30% clip in the last two years with horses off a layoff, has a 23% win rate with 'cap debs, and currently boasts a 34% strike rate for the past fortnight.

A neck second to Queen Daenerys in a novice last September, she was spotting that one six pounds. The winner was fourth in the Oaks, and the third and fourth have both won since, so this is strong handicap form. Expect her to race handily, and she's available at around the 3/1 mark.

 

1.45 Unibet Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 4yo+)

After the relative calm of a dozen fillies comes the storm of 18 older horses traversing the round course before clambering over each other and the camber (cambering over each other?) in the straight. Ten furlongs is the trip.

Four- and five-year-olds with at least a distance win have taken out 17 of the last 18 renewals of this race, according to Andy Newton's Goodwood Day 1 trends. Higher weights and multiple winners have had much the best of it so my shortlist is comprised of Sky Defender, Babbo's Boy, Derevo, and Alternative Fact.

Sky Defender is one of only two in the race for Mark Johnston - who took this pot in 2016, 2014, 2012, 2009, 2006 and 2000 - with the other being the better fancied but unproven at the distance, Maydanny.

Sky Defender has second top weight but also has the assistance of Joe Fanning, who rides this track for Johnston so well. Ignoring a last place finish at York last time, he won a Class 2 handicap at similarly quirky Epsom over this trip two back. His is a bold 'catch me if you can' style generally, and there are plenty of alternatives for the lead in a race thick with both quality and quantity. But very few riders have Fanning's ability to judge the fractions, making 28/1 tempting for very small money.

Babbo's Boy is interesting, too, and at 33/1 in a place. A Class 3 winner two back over ten furlongs, he ran poorly last time when upped in distance. With a liking for a bit of juice in the turf, any rain will help his cause and trainer Ralph Beckett calls up Rossa Ryan for the steering: they're 7/21 in the last year together (+15.87, A/E 1.88, IV 3.27)

Sir Michael Stoute offers Derevo for our consideration. A typically well-bred Juddmonte colt, he is both bound to improve for his seasonal bow and likely to improve for being a year older, Sir Michael being a master of patience. Derevo notched three wins from his five starts last term, though they were all in small fields. He could fare no better than a 12 length sixth in a 19-runner late season handicap at Newmarket which is a niggle. So, too, is his car park stall - 18 of 18 - and those two knocks mean he's not for me at single figure quotes.

The last of my trendy quartet is Alternative Fact: Ed Dunlop trains this one, an experienced three-time winner including once at ten furlongs. A hold up horse with a turn of pace he's interesting for all that he'll need plenty of fortune in transit.

All four are drawn 13 or wider, however, and that's a concern. In the circumstances, I'll be treading very carefully with Sky Defender and Babbo's Boy with as many extra places as I can get.

2.15 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (7f, Group 2, 2yo)

The first group race of the week and a strong favourite in the imperiously-bred Battleground. By War Front he's out of the superstar mare, Found, herself winner of an Arc and a Breeders' Cup Turf. The Naas maiden in which he was a two and a half length sixth on debut has worked out extremely well: as well as Battleground himself winning the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, the ninth placed horse won the Group 2 Railway Stakes with the winner of the Naas maiden finishing second in that G2. Indeed, here's the Future Form view of selected runners from the maiden, with the bottom line P/L bottom right corner:

I'm not inclined to try to speculate about the rest of the field, though I would say that the favourite has more scope to improve than many and already has better form than most/all of his rivals. Good ground won't be an issue and he ought to win, I think, albeit that 11/8 leaves little margin for error.

2.45 Lennox Stakes (7f, Group 2, 3yo+)

A seven furlong Group 2, and a good one at that. I always feel that seven furlongs is a specialist trip, especially when looking at top class races. Indeed, 17 of the last 20 winners of the Lennox Stakes were already seven-furlong winners.

Only six of those twenty victors also won last time out. Six more were beaten over a mile, though not beaten far; and the three winners who ran over six furlongs the time before were also all beaten at that shorter trip. Meanwhile, six of the eight winners who ran over seven furlongs last time won that race, too.

In other words, forgive a beaten horse if it was running over a different - potentially the wrong - trip; but demand that a horse which ran over this range last time won. Tragically, from my research perspective, that only eliminates the 33/1 poke Graignes on its first UK run for George Baker. Sigh.

Below is the UK/Ire form as depicted in Instant Expert, sorted by distance win percentage:

The seven-furlong specialists in the field are Space Blues, Safe Voyage and Sir Dancealot. Let's begin with the last named, winner of this race for the last two years and a 6/1 shot this time around. There are clearly no concerns about course or distance, nor about the ground. Those are his sole two visits to the course thus far. Last year Sir Dancealot came here off the back of a beating over a mile, and the year before he took the same route as this term: beaten in the six-furlong July Cup. He has won at 5/1 and 6/1 those two years and looks a very fair price again at 13/2.

Safe Voyage comes here having won the Surrey Stakes at Epsom over this trip. He was previously second to Space Blues, again over seven, at Haydock. He has some high class form at seven and a mile from last year but almost exclusively on deep ground. If the going was soft, he'd be my idea of the value; but it's not and he isn't, for all that he's clearly a talented lad who otherwise fits the profile.

The favourite is Godolphin's Space Blues, winner of the aforementioned Haydock Listed contest and most recently a Longchamp Group 3. In an eight-runner field over in France that last day, the two British horses finished 1-2, nodding once more to the dearth of talent in the French ranks currently. Frankly, whilst I've loved this fellow since he careened through a 19-runner York handicap field last May, his form thereafter is either below this level or has been achieved in that questionable Gallic context. It obviously won't be a shock if he wins, but I don't give an especially better chance to him than to Sir D who is twice his price and more.

Of the remainder, Duke Of Hazzard hasn't especially been looking like he wants a drop in trip from a mile though he's a dual Group winner here; Pierre Lapin has to bounce back from a horrible run in the Commonwealth Cup and proved he's trained on from a highly promising juvenile season; and the rest, with one possible exception, don't look good enough.

The possible exception is Glorious Journey. A G2 winner in Meydan in January, and then third at the uber-valuable Saudi Cup meeting in February, the Charlie Appleby-trained five-year-old was a neck second to Limato in a Newmarket Group 3 and the winner of a Newbury Group 2, both over this distance, last season. If he's recovered from his early year globetrotting exertions and is fit enough he'll have a hand to play. Those are quite a few if's for a horse at a single figure price, mind.

3.15 Goodwood Cup (2m, Group 1, 3yo+)

The feature of the day - arguably of the week - is the Group 1 Goodwood Cup. Seven go to post and it is 14/1 bar two, so ostensibly a match, a notion given greater substance with the fact that the third favourite, Nayef Road, was beaten ten lengths by the favourite, Stradivarius, last time.

Stradivarius is a win machine and the latest of a terrific line of staying champions. Because of their limited value at stud - National Hunt broodmares await - stayers tend to be kept in training for longer. As a result, we've seen the likes of Double Trigger, Yeats, and Persian Punch to name three return time and again to favoured haunts for their Cup jaunts.

But this lad Strad, recency bias acknowledged, might just be the pick of them. Such is his talent that talk of an Arc tilt at season end is not quite in the realms of fantasy (though it is still ambitious). For this gig, he has no peers, not from the older brigade anyway. The John Gosden inmate has won the last three renewals of the Goodwood Cup, has a gear change unrivalled among stayers and comes here off the back of arguably his most impressive performance thus far, when bashing up Nayef Road and co by at least one postal district.

But where there's an ointment there's usually a fly, and where the ointment is Gosden's it is usually Aidan O'Brien buzzing around the bottle; in this case with his progressive and weight-advantaged three-year-old Santiago. As a juvenile, Santiago was good enough to finish second to Alpine Star, subsequent Group 1 winner at a mile. He then won his maiden at that trip to round out last season.

This term, in two races just eight days apart, he won the Group 2 Queen's Vase over a mile and six at Ascot, flew back to Ireland, and took out the Group 1 (obvs) Irish Derby. Wow. The former race was on soft ground, the latter on good. Talented and versatile he might arguably have aimed at twelve furlong G1 glory rather than this two mile challenge; but getting a whacking great stone and a pound in weight for age makes him a formidable foe for the champ.

Here's how I expect this to play out: Nayef Road takes them along early in a bid to draw the sting, while the SAS - Santiago and Stradivarius - keep their powder dry marking each other from midfield. On the turn for home, the moves are made and the best turn of foot wins.

Aided by that chunky weight differential, I feel Santiago might just wrest the laurels from the old fiddler, Stradivarius. It's not a strong feeling, and I have ultimate respect for the champion; but he is vulnerable on these terms given the progression in the other lad, and the price disparity - 2/1 vs 8/13 - is greater in my view than it ought to be.

3.45 Qatar Handicap (Class 2, 5f, 4yo+)

A cracking sprint handicap and one where the rarely sighted "Possible Pace Collapse" prediction is in play...

True, it is sometimes the case that when races look like this, connections take heed and manage their runners accordingly; but here, the likes of Caspian Prince, Ornate and Acclaim The Nation don't really know another way to race regardless of the deliberations of their humans.

As such, for me, it sets up for either a more tactically versatile runner or a waited with type. As can be seen from the map, it might not be overly lazy to narrow consideration down to two: Well Done Fox and Celsius.

Well Done Fox is a two-time Listed scorer at the minimum and drops back to this trip after two efforts over six. Prior to that he ran a respectable, in the context of this handicap, race in the 5f Group 1 King's Stand Stakes, and was a decent fourth in the 5f Group 3 Palace House Stakes on his other run this term. He's not won for two years but nor has he faced a field of five furlong handicappers in his career before. The drop in trip, into a searing pace, might be just what he needs and 12/1 is fair each way value.

Celsius is just about favourite, and this looks an ideal setup for him, too. A winner in five of his eight five furlong handicaps, and second in two more, Tom Clover has trained this four-year-old to continuous improvement thus far. He is a regular tardy starter, however, and if he's not careful this better collective might be away and gone before he can catch them up. If he breaks alertly it will be a very good opportunity to further his winning ways at 7/2.

4.20 Maiden Stakes (6f, Class 2, 2yo)

Next...

4.55 Fillies' Handicap (1m 4f, Class 3 0-95, 3yo+)

A card book-ended by fillies' handicaps closes with this one over twelve furlongs. This time, seven of the dozen runners are from the Classic generation, and in receipt of eleven pounds weight for age. Unexposed, progressive and getting most of a stone. Yes, they lack the physical maturity of their elders in most cases, but the deck is stacked in their favour to my eye. This race, which I assume is the one introduced in 2013 for the late August meeting, has been won by a 3yo for the last six (of seven) years.

The relatively locally trained Asiaaf was a winner here two back. That was over ten furlongs, the Marcus Tregoning resident having run a solid second at Sandown since. Stepping up to this distance for the first time, improvement could be forthcoming though her pedigree (New Approach out of a Shamardal mare) doesn't scream as much.

One whose lineage does point to a mile and a half, and whose form profile has embroidered that implication, is 10/3 Dancing Approach. Trained by Roger Charlton, she's won her last two since being stepped up to this trip. By Camelot out of a New Approach mare, such races are the metier of the sire, as can be seen from the sire snippets:

We can also see from that snapshot that both trainer and jockey are in good recent form (the green 14 and 30 noting good form in the past 14 and 30 days respectively). This filly has an obvious chance.

Tulip Fields is another bred for this sort of job, and so too it seems is her trainer, Mark Johnston, who wins Glorious Goodwood handicaps for fun. She's a little more exposed than some, however, and my eye is drawn more to the George Scott-trained Au Clair De Lune.

By Sea The Stars, whose progeny have fared extremely well against this type of assignment - see below - she is out of Missunited, who herself was a winner here of the Group 3 Lillie Langtry Stakes on her final start. Raced in the same owner/breeder colours of Vanessa Hutch as her dam, she will have been primed for this target. Incidentally, her year older full brother, Eagles By Day, runs in the Goodwood Cup earlier on the card, another suggestion that there could be more to come from this filly.

As can also be seen below, the George Scott/Ben Curtis axis has been a potent one in the last twelve months. She's 11/2 and should run well.

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And that's a wrap for the opening day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival 2020. A slightly briefer overview and a few more Geegeez Gold components; hopefully one or both of those tweaks is to your personal tastes. Regardless, I'll be back with Wednesday's preview soon enough. I'd love for you to join me!

Oh, and do leave a comment below with your best value play(s) and your reasons why - share the knowledge 🙂

Good luck,

Matt