Tag Archive for: Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Preview

Glorious Goodwood 2023: Day 4 Preview, Pointers, Tips

/in /by

And so to Friday, the last of four days previewed here, and a day when I'll be in attendance at the track. Us travelling pals' mantra, "The sun always shines and we always win on Goodwood Friday", looks under serious and two-pronged threat this year, however! We start with the staying handicappers in the...

1.50 Goodwood Handicap (2m4f, Class 2, 3yo+)

Two and a half miles up the track from a flip start and then back down again. In the past dozen years, only two horses from the top three in the betting have won, so it's worth taking a swing at something.

Front runners have won two and been placed a further four times since 2009 for a small win and each way profit, while those racing handily have also out-performed compared with horses racing in the second half of the field early. Those patiently ridden types have account for more winners and places but from many more runners, as this handy little QT chart illustrates (4 means led, 1 means held up).

 

 

It's no surprise that such a marathon is often won by a predominantly National Hunt or dual purpose trainer.

Tentative favourite is the 2021 winner, Calling The Wind, but he's a stone higher in the ratings and weights - and two years older - so in spite of the outstanding Neil Callan taking the ride, I'm looking elsewhere. Tritonic won over a mile and a half here last year and was a good third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last time. He's not been missed by the market and has a clear chance.

Ian Williams has won this three times since 2008 and saddles Law Of The Sea and Hydroplane. LOTS was just behind Tritonic at Ascot and had legitimate excuses when whacked at Newcastle last time, where he was struck into. He was fourth in the Chester Cup earlier this year on soft ground and looks value at around 16/1. Meanwhile, Hydroplane was sixth in this race last year and a staying on second over two miles at the track in May. He has form on sodden surfaces and is another to consider.

Another dab hand at this sort of gig is Hughie Morrison, whose Quickthorn lagged up in the G1 Goodwood Cup on Tuesday. He won this in 2007 and 2016 and has Vino Victrix, a winner over two miles here last August (good to soft), this time. It's fair to say Vino's form has not been at the same level in three spins so for this season but he's dropped a couple of pounds as a result and it might have been that this was the plan. Won't be a shock winner, and is playable at 16's or so.

2.25 Thoroughbred Stakes (1m, Group 3, 3yo)

Just seven go to post for this mile Group 3 and they're headed by the ultra-impressive Newmarket scorer Nostrum. He made all on quick turf there, and may not get a freebie up top on a slower surface now. But he doesn't need the lead; indeed, that was his first time from the front having previously been prominent in two scores - one at this G3 level - and a Group 1 third in the Dewhurst. If he handles the slower ground, he's much the most likely winner.

According to official ratings, Nostrum is five pounds clear of his field, three runners rated 109 to his 114. They are Bold Discovery, Epictetus and Galeron. Bold Discovery is an Irish raider, trained by Jessica Harrington, and winner of a Listed mile contest last time on good to firm. He's got two pieces of G3 placed form on softer than good from last season and may be overpriced in the 'without the favourite' market.

Frankie rides Epictetus for Johnny and Thady, but this chap has been disappointing in three races since taking a ten furlong Listed on soft at Epsom in April. He was second to Silver Knott in a G3 and then to dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin in the G1 Vertem Futurity last backend, but possibly hasn't trained on. Whether he has or hasn't, I'll let him beat me if he's able to.

Galeron is another who may have peaked in his career already. The Charlie Hills inmate won the hyper-valuable Goffs Million (more than half a mill to the winner) at Irish Champions' Weekend last September, and was a fair fourth then fifth in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas's. But he ran no race in the St James's Palace Stakes and looks opposable.

One who definitely is improving is the Britannia Stakes winner, Docklands, who travelled like a Group horse in that 29-runner handicap to complete a hat-trick this year. A feature of Docklands' ability is his gear change, which was showcased in a small field win two back at Ascot. There, he barrelled away from his rivals in the last quarter mile - note the sectional times from 2-1 and 1-0 in the result below.

 

 

That effort was on soft ground and the Britannia was run on good to firm, so there are no going concerns. He's got a bit to find with the favourite on figures but if that one goes forward it could make for an exciting shootout in the final two furlongs with Docklands very likely to close from further back.

Two others in the race, the more interesting one being Knight, a Group 3 seven furlong winner on heavy last backend. However, he flopped in the Greenham and has not been sighted thereafter until now. Watching brief. Montesilvano represents Joseph O'Brien, and went forward in France last time before getting run out of it late; his main contribution here might be to challenge Nostrum for early primacy; the first time tongue tie will need to elicit about a stone and a half of improvement for him to prevail.

This looks a bit of a match between Nostrum and Docklands, the former with class on his side, the latter a progressive and versatile - and worthy - opponent. Docklands is a solid price at around 9/2 for a small sporting wager. Of the remainder, the 16/1 about Bold Discovery is less appealing than the 11/4 betting without the top two in the market.

3.00 Golden Mile Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)

Normally, I'm all about the low draws in this race. In point of fact, on quicker turf I consider it just about the strongest draw bias race in the season. Which may be perceived by some as weird given it's a mile race around a turn; but the big field traditionally favours those charting the shortest route into the lane, even when the going is testing.

I'm sticking to my low draw guns, and devil take the hindmost. Let's begin with Tacarib Bay, who turns out quickly having 'won' the race on the far side (1st of 14 there) in the International on Saturday. I think he's better drawn here, and he both handles soft ground and stays a mile. The 12/1 probably won't last, 10/1 is still acceptable I'd say.

Lattam, drawn one inside Tacarib Bay, deserves to be favourite: he loves wet turf, is a specialist miler and comes here in blistering form. What's not to love? Well, he'll need to get a clear passage with his hold up run style but, with plenty of the races unfolding in the middle of the track, that's less of a concern. Sky opened 9/2, a fifth seven places, so that's nearly money back with six in front of him and the perhaps the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.

A third low drawn mudlark is Revich, bronze medallist in the race last year off a pound lower mark, and from an impossible draw in 15. The first six home that day were drawn 2-1-15-7-4-9 so it really was a terrific effort. He's another hold up type and this will undoubtedly have been the plan. He's 14/1 in a few places, including Sky with their seven places, and is my final dart.

One year the inside stalls will flounder, and it could be this year. But it's still the percentage play with some well suited horses emerging from that section.

3.35 King George Stakes (5f, Group 2, 3yo+)

Back on the straight track and a Group 2 which is one of my personal favourites of the week. That is not to say I've been especially good at finding the winner; no, I just love sprints on fast tracks like Goodwood even if it will be a touch slower than usual with the deeper turf. It's a bit of a specialist's race with only five horses winning since 2014, thanks to Take Cover's brace and Battaash's remarkable four-timer.

Charles Hills, trainer of Battaash, was also responsible for last year's winner, the subsequent Group 1 Royal Ascot scorer, Khaadem. Both those two lads were by Dark Angel, coincidentally. Speaking of coincidences, Hills has two live contenders this time around in the form of Equality and Equilateral - wait, what, really?! Different owners, same stallion - Equiano, hence the similar names.

They've probably both got it to do to beat the brilliant mare, Highfield Princess. Yes, she's been beaten three times this year, but they were all excellent efforts; she's a soft ground five furlong Group 1 winner last term and, for all that she may be drawn away from the best part of the track, is probably a fair enough price at around even money if that's your thing.

It's not really mine, so it will be each way and/or without the favourite instead. The logical place to start on that plan is with the Hills duo and, particularly, Equilateral. Now eight, he's been on the go for 36 career races; the last time he encountered softer than good was in June 2020 when he was runner-up to... Battaash... in the Group 1 King's Stand. Obviously he's three years longer in the tooth now, but that form fits well here. Frankie rides and he's drawn close to the stands rail which has been favoured to the point I write.

Equality has been beaten twice in handicaps at Goodwood and also on soft ground, so I'd be keen to field against him (cue easy win, natch). More interesting to me is Nymphadora, trained by Andrew Balding. Balding is having a fantastic week and this filly's best form is all on the easy side of good and over five furlongs. She's drawn low which might be a concern, however.

The best of the draw - I presume - goes to Ladies Church, trained by Johnny Murtagh. I respect everything he sends across from Ireland but her best form is on good ground. One off the rail is the Clive Cox-trained three-year-old Kerdos, who has plenty to find on the book. He was sent off favourite at York last time, when only sixth behind Nymphadora and, if that run can be overlooked, he has a progressive profile. A tiny play at 25/1 won't hurt the bank too much.

I got stuck into Raasel in the handicap here on Tuesday, and that was expensive. He now doubles back in the Group 2 which, on the face of it, seems odd; but he was second in the race last year, handles give underfoot and has an otherwise excellent track record. He's 28/1 and could outrun those odds.

 

4.10 Glorious Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 4yo+)

A Group 3 over a mile and a half, older horses only. One horse towers above his field on ratings, the William Haggas-trained Hamish, who was withdrawn from the Group 1 Ascot showpiece last Saturday and now rocks up two grades lower. He carries a three pound impost for his previous achievements, which include four - count 'em! - Group 3's, and second in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. He is versatile regarding run style though was beaten when odds on in a further G3, that on heavy ground and when possibly over the top for the season. In spite of a short price he is the likely winner.

Stablemate Candleford could give him something to think about: he was an impressive winner of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot 2022 but is yet to win in Class 1 company. Mimikyu, for the Gosdens and Frankie Dettori, won the Group 2 Park Hill on good to soft and a novice race on soft, and she will keep running when others have cried enough.

Hard One To Please, a Swedish raider and a cash machine back home, is a hard one to peg. He has a form line with Outbox, rated 103, but was probably value for more than the head margin of victory that day. However, that was a home fixture and this is away; probably not good enough but an interesting runner nevertheless. Likewise, Epic Poet, whose French form puts him in the same postcode as all bar Hamish; he did fluff his opening British line at Newbury a fortnight ago though will presumably come on plenty for that first dance in eight months.

It would take an inspired mind, and an inspired ride from Neil Callan, to envisage Jack Darcy in the winner's enclosure post-race. Could happen but very unlikely.

4.45 Nursery Handicap (6f, Class 2, 2yo)

Not for me, thanks.

Gun to head, Loaded Gun. Andrew Balding has oodles of winners at this track and this meeting, and this chap was a half length third over five Goodwood furlongs two back before winning going away over the same trip on soft at Chester. He's by Magna Grecia, who won the Racing Post Trophy on the soft side as a juvenile, out of Temerity, whose only win came on soft, so he should handle the trip and conditions.

At much bigger prices, Dapper Valley represents another Goodwood trainer in the form of Richard Hannon. He won easily on debut in a Newbury five furlong maiden on soft before finding Listed class a bit too tough twice since. He's not certain to stay or to be good enough, but he's a big enough price - 20/1 as I write - to justify a small guess.

Obviously brutally competitive.

5.20 Coral Handicap (1m3f, Class 3, 3yo)

Another tough race to close the card. Loads of pace, almost all of it drawn outside, is an interesting feature. In the circumstances, it might pay to be patient for all that on the front has historically often been the way to prevail.

 

 

The one with soft ground form and a Champions League jockey in Ryan Moore is Nader King, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He's owned by Saeed Suhail and these connections all celebrated a win in this race with Poet's Word in 2016. They did also have Deal A Dollar, only seventh in 2019, and Baritone, for Coolmore this time, third in 2018. Two wins and a third from four runners is impressive. He broke his maiden on soft ground but, perhaps more notably, finished second on soft to a certain King Of Steel, Derby second, King Edward VII winner and King George third. That's a lot of King's in there.

In the longer grass - much longer as he's the outsider of the field - we have Rathgar, a horse with good form on soft and which has been struggling on faster ground recently. He won a nine furlong novice on good to soft here and, by Ulysses, he ought to stay eleven furlongs. Tom Marquand rides, he has the inside stall and tactical pace to sit behind the wide-drawn presumed trailblazers. 33/1 is a very sporting offer.

*

And that, dear friend, is that. There will be a further seven races on Saturday, including the brilliant Stewards' Cup, but I shall be playing footy while nursing a hangover. So allow me to thank you for your company this week, hope sincerely that you've landed on a good one or two, and invite you to consider the geegeez racecards as your digital assistant this weekend (and beyond). If you're not already using them, you can put that right here.

Stay lucky,

Matt

Glorious Goodwood 2020: Day 4 Preview, Tips

/in , /by

To Friday, the fourth day of five at the Qatar Goodwood Festival - Glorious Goodwood to you and me. Goodwood Friday is one of those days in the calendar marked off on January 1st, along with Cheltenham week, Royal Ascot, and the Breeders' Cup, when I am planning to be at the track for the very best of what the sport has to offer.

But not this year, alas. This year, I - like everyone else - will be confined to the sofa for my Glorious viewing. No bad thing in the context of what's going on around the globe but, for all that it is a first world problem, they are days like these when I feel those invisible bars constraining my liberty. On...

1.10 TDN Australia Handicap (1m3f, Class 3 0-90, 3yo)

We commence with another of those inscrutable, to me at least, three-year-old handicaps. I'm trying to look to the form of races which are working out well, but this year's fractured programme means there are less of those. The ratings boys will have a better handle than me on this one so I'll largely leave it to them - Peter May's numbers, for example, scream Al Qaqaa, the eight length last day victor. A nine pound rise is unlikely to stop him if he is in the same mood here.

I was a fan of Celestran after his Yarmouth win but, for all that he's run well in defeat since, that race hasn't worked out as well as I expected it might. He's not one to give up on yet, however.

Possibly the most interesting, Al Qaqaa aside, is Summit Reach, trained by the wily and in-form 'Raif' Beckett. He made all to hack up in a mile event at Chelmsford which has worked out very well and, while he's failed to go gate to wire over this sort of distance twice since, he ought to have a squeak of stacking them up on this pace-favouring piste. Stall ten won't be an issue for him.

In truth, this is not a betting race for me.

1.45 Oak Tree Stakes (7f, Group 3, 3yo+ fillies & mares)

Low draws have dominated in the Oak Tree Stakes historically. Since 1997, the winner has been drawn 2,2,2,1,5,1,6,6,1,1,1,10,9,2,2,9,10,10,5,1,6,3,10

Put another way, the inside three stalls - after removing non-runners - have won 12 from 69 runners; the outside three stalls have won one from 69 runners. The heat map, which shows all similar races run over this course and distance since 2009, accentuates the point still further:

Invitational has to be of interest. She'd won two at seven furlongs - in slightly lower grade, granted - prior to patently failing to stay a mile on the stiff Ascot track behind Nazeef last time. Back to seven, with a favourable draw and front rank run style, 14/1 is too big.

One Master is in the one box and is a genuine Group 1 filly dropping into Group 3 company. She has a big class edge on Invitational but will need luck in running on this notoriously cambered course. If she gets a clear run she'll probably win.

A Group 3 winner over seven is Breathtaking Look whose draw in nine is acceptable and will be mitigated by a pace-tracking run style. She ran a bold race over six at Newmarket on her 2020 bow (second to July Stakes hero, Oxted) and was only just touched off in a York G3 last time, again over a furlong shorter. Seven is well within her compass as that Sceptre Stakes score last September attests so she ought to go well.

Charlie Appleby runs Althiqa, a Listed race winner in France last time and Godolphin have a second dart in the more exposed Final Song. Fourth in the 1000 Guineas, that one may not have appreciated the soft ground the last twice; even if that's right, however, she has stall 13 - unlucky for most at this range - to overcome.

Anna Nerium and the French filly Wasmya both have good draws if they're lucky in the run.

With a clear passage, One Master will be very hard to beat; but her run style does offer wagering hope that the race sets up for one kept out of trouble. I'll risk Invitational, in spite of her having to concede weight to the three-year-olds and ostensibly being as much as a stone 'wrong' with some of her peers. She'll be near the front, sees out seven well, and looked progressive prior to failing to stay last time.

2.15 Thoroughbred Stakes (1m, Group 3, 3yo)

Just the five go to post for this Group 3, the four-and-a-half length Britannia Stakes winner, Khaloosy, being a shade of odds-on as I write. That was on soft, this will be good to firm; that was 22 runners and truly run, this will be five runners and potentially tactical; that was a handicap, this is a conditions race. He very well might still win.

Against him are a couple of uber-unexposed colts in My Oberon and Tilsit. The former won a York novice last time by six lengths, showing a ready turn of foot. That attribute could be valuable in a contest with no obvious pace angle and, with just two runs to his name thus far, he can progress again.

Tilsit has a similar profile: the second of his two runs to date was a 19 (nineteen!) length romp on the straight track at Newcastle. It's virtually impossible to quantify that in the context of this race except to say he's clearly a capable individual.

The other pair look a lot more exposed.

This is a very different test for Khaloosy and, as such, taking odds-on doesn't appeal. My Oberon looks the more likely of the other two last day wide margin scorers, and he's a sporting bet at bigger than 3/1.

2.45 Golden Mile Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)

The strongest draw bias race in the calendar just about: low draws have it, high draws do not. Recent winners of this race have been drawn 4,15,9,5,4,2,1,3,3,5,1,1,15,7,1,8,13,5,9,1,3,3,3

Backing the lowest three drawn horses in that time arbitrarily would have returned a profit at SP of 40.75 points.

Moreover, when the going has been good or faster, stalls 1-5 have been responsible for the winner in five of the last seven years, and the second in the two non-winning years.

Here's the pace/draw heat map for ALL handicap races over a mile at Goodwood on quick ground with 14+ runners. Good luck if you fancy Montatham: he'll be a mighty horse to win from there.

Mark Johnston won this in 2012, 2010, 2009, 2001 and 1997 but has had plenty beaten since his last success. He's triple-handed this time and has lucked in with the draw for two of them, the forward-going pair Vale Of Kent and Cardsharp.

Joe Fanning is likely to set the fractions on Vale Of Kent, who was second in the race last year off a seven pound lower mark. That, incredibly, was from stall 17 and he has trap 3 this time: he's a definite player with Goodwood form of 2142 including three big field spins and is generally available at 10/1.

Cardsharp has Will Buick steering and emerges from box five. He has yet to run at the track and looks more of a seven furlong horse.

The highly progressive Prompting is drawn in stall two and is favourite. For all that he won well last time that was in a Class 4 seven furlong handicap on the wide open expanses of the Knavesmire: he looks like he'll be ridden for luck in a better race over further and is therefore not exciting at the price. His trainer, David O'Meara, is in excellent form and he could still be competitive with a clear run.

Another who will come later and need to be commensurately lucky in transit is Sir Busker. He's been impressive this term at a mile and shaped as though needing those extra yards when just failing to get up over seven at Newmarket last time. Up another five pounds for that effort won't help but the 'capper has been struggling to keep tabs on William Knight's progressive four-year-old.

Almufti has the inside stall and a nine pound weight pull with Sir Busker on Ascot running two starts back. He, more than most, will need the splits to arrive but he remains playable for small money at 14/1, hard luck potential notwithstanding.

Mostly, though, I think Vale Of Kent looks likely to run his race and is attractive at 10/1 with extra places if you like.

3.15 King George Stakes (5f, Group 2, 3yo+)

This race is all about Battaash, who is a very very fast horse and oozes class. His price of 4/11 reflects the strong likelihood that he'll win so you'll need plenty of elevens to be prepared to risk them to get some fours.

I had a good bet on Liberty Beach to finish second to Battaash at Ascot where she got chinned on the line by Equilateral. She's since been beaten into second in a Listed race but she won the Molecomb here last year and the slightly easier finish looks more to her tastes. She's my idea of the second and 7/4 without Battaash is the bet if you don't just want to cheer the high class jolly's anticipated procession.

Glass Slippers looks like she will appreciate a bit more give in the ground and perhaps another tilt at the Abbaye is where we'll see her best this term. Al Raya might not be impossible but the rest, including the French runner Ken Colt, probably are just about.

3.45 Glorious Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 4yo+)

Treacherous punting territory in spite of just seven lining up. The last winner at a double figure price was in 2001 so I'll use that as an excuse to overlook Le Don De Vie, Spirit Of Appin and, reluctantly, Thundering Blue.

That leaves a quartet at 5/1 or shorter headed by Communique, a horse who has forgotten how to win a touch. In fairness, he's been second three times since a Group 2 score in July last year, and was only a half length behind Eagles By Day over arguably a trip too far last time.

Desert Encounter has won absolute bundles - over a million quid, in fact - from his globetrotting exploits and he added another 57 'bags' (bag of sand = grand) when nicking this under a typically late Jamie Spencer ride last term. At around 3/1 he's a less appealing price this time than the 15/2 he returned then, but his case is more obvious. Jim Crowley takes over from Jamie.

Alounak is another to have acquired more than just air miles from his world tour, aggregating better than £330,000 to date. Alas, that was pretty much exclusively for his previous, German, trainer. Andrew Balding has managed 'just' the £30k with the son of Camelot in three spins to date, but he nearly stole the show in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. A capable fellow on his day, he's another who usually runs well in defeat.

That's a comment which can be applied to the 2-from-13 Pablo Escobarr also, though one of his brace was achieved in a maiden race here. This is a different level of difficulty and not one about which I'm excited for his chance.

Thundering Blue was such a devil a couple of seasons back putting his trainer, David Menuisier, on the map. He ran mostly flat last term, however, and it remains to be seen how much affection for the task the now seven-year-old retains. Likeable old sausage, all the same.

This is the sort of race where one arrives at a wager by a process of elimination. All have been serial non-winners in recent times with the exception of the reigning champ, Desert Encounter. He's very far from bombproof but is less unreliable than his rivals and gets the nod on that basis!

4.20 Nursery Handicap (6f, Class 2, 2yo)

I just don't know. Maybe Rooster or Perotti, both off the track for a month and more, both expected capable of better after the break, both representing respected Goodwood trainers. Next.

4.55 Fillies' Maiden (6f, Class 4, 2yo)

The bar beckons.

**

And that's Friday's somewhat truncated preview. I hope you don't mind me skipping the last pair: you shouldn't because I genuinely have no idea on those - even more so than the 30-odd races which preceded them this week!

As is customary, I will leave you to your own devices on Saturday and wish you well. And, as is customary, you may be very grateful of that come the time...

Many thanks for reading this week, and I hope you've both enjoyed the sport and perhaps found a nicely-priced winner or two.

Matt

p.s. There will be a crowd at Goodwood on Saturday. It will be the first occasion since mid-March that racegoers have been permitted to indulge their passion on site and, in these nervous tentative times, that feels like a small win. Let us hope that the macro situation allows for this to become our 'new normal', as there are plenty of racecourses up and down the land who rarely get more than the ceiling 5000 in attendance. In other words, they might get back somewhere close to business as usual, which will be good for all of us one way or another.

Baby steps, but on and up.