And so to Friday, the last of four days previewed here, and a day when I'll be in attendance at the track. Us travelling pals' mantra, "The sun always shines and we always win on Goodwood Friday", looks under serious and two-pronged threat this year, however! We start with the staying handicappers in the...

1.50 Goodwood Handicap (2m4f, Class 2, 3yo+)

Two and a half miles up the track from a flip start and then back down again. In the past dozen years, only two horses from the top three in the betting have won, so it's worth taking a swing at something.

Front runners have won two and been placed a further four times since 2009 for a small win and each way profit, while those racing handily have also out-performed compared with horses racing in the second half of the field early. Those patiently ridden types have account for more winners and places but from many more runners, as this handy little QT chart illustrates (4 means led, 1 means held up).

 

 

It's no surprise that such a marathon is often won by a predominantly National Hunt or dual purpose trainer.

Tentative favourite is the 2021 winner, Calling The Wind, but he's a stone higher in the ratings and weights - and two years older - so in spite of the outstanding Neil Callan taking the ride, I'm looking elsewhere. Tritonic won over a mile and a half here last year and was a good third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last time. He's not been missed by the market and has a clear chance.

Ian Williams has won this three times since 2008 and saddles Law Of The Sea and Hydroplane. LOTS was just behind Tritonic at Ascot and had legitimate excuses when whacked at Newcastle last time, where he was struck into. He was fourth in the Chester Cup earlier this year on soft ground and looks value at around 16/1. Meanwhile, Hydroplane was sixth in this race last year and a staying on second over two miles at the track in May. He has form on sodden surfaces and is another to consider.

Another dab hand at this sort of gig is Hughie Morrison, whose Quickthorn lagged up in the G1 Goodwood Cup on Tuesday. He won this in 2007 and 2016 and has Vino Victrix, a winner over two miles here last August (good to soft), this time. It's fair to say Vino's form has not been at the same level in three spins so for this season but he's dropped a couple of pounds as a result and it might have been that this was the plan. Won't be a shock winner, and is playable at 16's or so.

2.25 Thoroughbred Stakes (1m, Group 3, 3yo)

Just seven go to post for this mile Group 3 and they're headed by the ultra-impressive Newmarket scorer Nostrum. He made all on quick turf there, and may not get a freebie up top on a slower surface now. But he doesn't need the lead; indeed, that was his first time from the front having previously been prominent in two scores - one at this G3 level - and a Group 1 third in the Dewhurst. If he handles the slower ground, he's much the most likely winner.

According to official ratings, Nostrum is five pounds clear of his field, three runners rated 109 to his 114. They are Bold Discovery, Epictetus and Galeron. Bold Discovery is an Irish raider, trained by Jessica Harrington, and winner of a Listed mile contest last time on good to firm. He's got two pieces of G3 placed form on softer than good from last season and may be overpriced in the 'without the favourite' market.

Frankie rides Epictetus for Johnny and Thady, but this chap has been disappointing in three races since taking a ten furlong Listed on soft at Epsom in April. He was second to Silver Knott in a G3 and then to dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin in the G1 Vertem Futurity last backend, but possibly hasn't trained on. Whether he has or hasn't, I'll let him beat me if he's able to.

Galeron is another who may have peaked in his career already. The Charlie Hills inmate won the hyper-valuable Goffs Million (more than half a mill to the winner) at Irish Champions' Weekend last September, and was a fair fourth then fifth in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas's. But he ran no race in the St James's Palace Stakes and looks opposable.

One who definitely is improving is the Britannia Stakes winner, Docklands, who travelled like a Group horse in that 29-runner handicap to complete a hat-trick this year. A feature of Docklands' ability is his gear change, which was showcased in a small field win two back at Ascot. There, he barrelled away from his rivals in the last quarter mile - note the sectional times from 2-1 and 1-0 in the result below.

 

 

That effort was on soft ground and the Britannia was run on good to firm, so there are no going concerns. He's got a bit to find with the favourite on figures but if that one goes forward it could make for an exciting shootout in the final two furlongs with Docklands very likely to close from further back.

Two others in the race, the more interesting one being Knight, a Group 3 seven furlong winner on heavy last backend. However, he flopped in the Greenham and has not been sighted thereafter until now. Watching brief. Montesilvano represents Joseph O'Brien, and went forward in France last time before getting run out of it late; his main contribution here might be to challenge Nostrum for early primacy; the first time tongue tie will need to elicit about a stone and a half of improvement for him to prevail.

This looks a bit of a match between Nostrum and Docklands, the former with class on his side, the latter a progressive and versatile - and worthy - opponent. Docklands is a solid price at around 9/2 for a small sporting wager. Of the remainder, the 16/1 about Bold Discovery is less appealing than the 11/4 betting without the top two in the market.

3.00 Golden Mile Handicap (1m, Class 2, 3yo+)

Normally, I'm all about the low draws in this race. In point of fact, on quicker turf I consider it just about the strongest draw bias race in the season. Which may be perceived by some as weird given it's a mile race around a turn; but the big field traditionally favours those charting the shortest route into the lane, even when the going is testing.

I'm sticking to my low draw guns, and devil take the hindmost. Let's begin with Tacarib Bay, who turns out quickly having 'won' the race on the far side (1st of 14 there) in the International on Saturday. I think he's better drawn here, and he both handles soft ground and stays a mile. The 12/1 probably won't last, 10/1 is still acceptable I'd say.

Lattam, drawn one inside Tacarib Bay, deserves to be favourite: he loves wet turf, is a specialist miler and comes here in blistering form. What's not to love? Well, he'll need to get a clear passage with his hold up run style but, with plenty of the races unfolding in the middle of the track, that's less of a concern. Sky opened 9/2, a fifth seven places, so that's nearly money back with six in front of him and the perhaps the proverbial 'each way bet to nothing'.

A third low drawn mudlark is Revich, bronze medallist in the race last year off a pound lower mark, and from an impossible draw in 15. The first six home that day were drawn 2-1-15-7-4-9 so it really was a terrific effort. He's another hold up type and this will undoubtedly have been the plan. He's 14/1 in a few places, including Sky with their seven places, and is my final dart.

One year the inside stalls will flounder, and it could be this year. But it's still the percentage play with some well suited horses emerging from that section.

3.35 King George Stakes (5f, Group 2, 3yo+)

Back on the straight track and a Group 2 which is one of my personal favourites of the week. That is not to say I've been especially good at finding the winner; no, I just love sprints on fast tracks like Goodwood even if it will be a touch slower than usual with the deeper turf. It's a bit of a specialist's race with only five horses winning since 2014, thanks to Take Cover's brace and Battaash's remarkable four-timer.

Charles Hills, trainer of Battaash, was also responsible for last year's winner, the subsequent Group 1 Royal Ascot scorer, Khaadem. Both those two lads were by Dark Angel, coincidentally. Speaking of coincidences, Hills has two live contenders this time around in the form of Equality and Equilateral - wait, what, really?! Different owners, same stallion - Equiano, hence the similar names.

They've probably both got it to do to beat the brilliant mare, Highfield Princess. Yes, she's been beaten three times this year, but they were all excellent efforts; she's a soft ground five furlong Group 1 winner last term and, for all that she may be drawn away from the best part of the track, is probably a fair enough price at around even money if that's your thing.

It's not really mine, so it will be each way and/or without the favourite instead. The logical place to start on that plan is with the Hills duo and, particularly, Equilateral. Now eight, he's been on the go for 36 career races; the last time he encountered softer than good was in June 2020 when he was runner-up to... Battaash... in the Group 1 King's Stand. Obviously he's three years longer in the tooth now, but that form fits well here. Frankie rides and he's drawn close to the stands rail which has been favoured to the point I write.

Equality has been beaten twice in handicaps at Goodwood and also on soft ground, so I'd be keen to field against him (cue easy win, natch). More interesting to me is Nymphadora, trained by Andrew Balding. Balding is having a fantastic week and this filly's best form is all on the easy side of good and over five furlongs. She's drawn low which might be a concern, however.

The best of the draw - I presume - goes to Ladies Church, trained by Johnny Murtagh. I respect everything he sends across from Ireland but her best form is on good ground. One off the rail is the Clive Cox-trained three-year-old Kerdos, who has plenty to find on the book. He was sent off favourite at York last time, when only sixth behind Nymphadora and, if that run can be overlooked, he has a progressive profile. A tiny play at 25/1 won't hurt the bank too much.

I got stuck into Raasel in the handicap here on Tuesday, and that was expensive. He now doubles back in the Group 2 which, on the face of it, seems odd; but he was second in the race last year, handles give underfoot and has an otherwise excellent track record. He's 28/1 and could outrun those odds.

 

4.10 Glorious Stakes (1m4f, Group 3, 4yo+)

A Group 3 over a mile and a half, older horses only. One horse towers above his field on ratings, the William Haggas-trained Hamish, who was withdrawn from the Group 1 Ascot showpiece last Saturday and now rocks up two grades lower. He carries a three pound impost for his previous achievements, which include four - count 'em! - Group 3's, and second in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. He is versatile regarding run style though was beaten when odds on in a further G3, that on heavy ground and when possibly over the top for the season. In spite of a short price he is the likely winner.

Stablemate Candleford could give him something to think about: he was an impressive winner of the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot 2022 but is yet to win in Class 1 company. Mimikyu, for the Gosdens and Frankie Dettori, won the Group 2 Park Hill on good to soft and a novice race on soft, and she will keep running when others have cried enough.

Hard One To Please, a Swedish raider and a cash machine back home, is a hard one to peg. He has a form line with Outbox, rated 103, but was probably value for more than the head margin of victory that day. However, that was a home fixture and this is away; probably not good enough but an interesting runner nevertheless. Likewise, Epic Poet, whose French form puts him in the same postcode as all bar Hamish; he did fluff his opening British line at Newbury a fortnight ago though will presumably come on plenty for that first dance in eight months.

It would take an inspired mind, and an inspired ride from Neil Callan, to envisage Jack Darcy in the winner's enclosure post-race. Could happen but very unlikely.

4.45 Nursery Handicap (6f, Class 2, 2yo)

Not for me, thanks.

Gun to head, Loaded Gun. Andrew Balding has oodles of winners at this track and this meeting, and this chap was a half length third over five Goodwood furlongs two back before winning going away over the same trip on soft at Chester. He's by Magna Grecia, who won the Racing Post Trophy on the soft side as a juvenile, out of Temerity, whose only win came on soft, so he should handle the trip and conditions.

At much bigger prices, Dapper Valley represents another Goodwood trainer in the form of Richard Hannon. He won easily on debut in a Newbury five furlong maiden on soft before finding Listed class a bit too tough twice since. He's not certain to stay or to be good enough, but he's a big enough price - 20/1 as I write - to justify a small guess.

Obviously brutally competitive.

5.20 Coral Handicap (1m3f, Class 3, 3yo)

Another tough race to close the card. Loads of pace, almost all of it drawn outside, is an interesting feature. In the circumstances, it might pay to be patient for all that on the front has historically often been the way to prevail.

 

 

The one with soft ground form and a Champions League jockey in Ryan Moore is Nader King, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He's owned by Saeed Suhail and these connections all celebrated a win in this race with Poet's Word in 2016. They did also have Deal A Dollar, only seventh in 2019, and Baritone, for Coolmore this time, third in 2018. Two wins and a third from four runners is impressive. He broke his maiden on soft ground but, perhaps more notably, finished second on soft to a certain King Of Steel, Derby second, King Edward VII winner and King George third. That's a lot of King's in there.

In the longer grass - much longer as he's the outsider of the field - we have Rathgar, a horse with good form on soft and which has been struggling on faster ground recently. He won a nine furlong novice on good to soft here and, by Ulysses, he ought to stay eleven furlongs. Tom Marquand rides, he has the inside stall and tactical pace to sit behind the wide-drawn presumed trailblazers. 33/1 is a very sporting offer.

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And that, dear friend, is that. There will be a further seven races on Saturday, including the brilliant Stewards' Cup, but I shall be playing footy while nursing a hangover. So allow me to thank you for your company this week, hope sincerely that you've landed on a good one or two, and invite you to consider the geegeez racecards as your digital assistant this weekend (and beyond). If you're not already using them, you can put that right here.

Stay lucky,

Matt