Tag Archive for: Hamilton

Tix Picks, Monday 23/09/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Sedgefield & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Wolverhampton, but it's a dreadful looking card, so we're heading North to Hamilton Park for six races on good to soft ground, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.48 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Rebecca's Girl is the clear 'form' horse here, finishing 2123 in her last four, but Temper Trap was a runner-up last time out, Absolute Dream has a win and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and has won both his last two races here at Hamilton whilst Retirement Beckons is a 4-time course and distance winner.

Instant Expert also says Rebecca's Girl is the one to beat...

...and although there's not a great deal of pace in the field, she's one of the more likely prominent runners on a track that favours leaders, as is Temper Trap...

So, I'll be taking Rebecca's Girl & Temper trap, of course, but also adding CD specialist Retirement Beckons, just in case!

Leg 2 : 2.23 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 6f...

It'll probably pay to focus on the bottom half of the card here (all fillies), even if Misty Sky, Thecla and Koulikoro all step up in class after being in the frame last time out. Bottom weight Koulikoro was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in an 11-runner race after the winner had nicked an early lead, but our filly stayed on well and there should be more to come. She's a half-sister to a few winners and she'd be my pick here.

Next best would be Thecla, whose runner-up finish on her second/last outing earlier this month was much better than her debut and further progression should/could see her get even closer to breaking her duck today, whilst Misty Sky is another who seems to be improving. She refused to race on 'debut' at Pontefract in June, but was then 5th of 8 (4.5 lengths defeat) when she finally did run at Chester, but was 3rd of 8, beaten by just over a length and a half at Chepstow last time out, so so she still have more to show.

I'll take all three here.

Leg 3 : 2.58 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f...

The Dragon King had won two on the bounce before a Class 2 defeat (6th of 16, 4L down) at Goodwood last time out and is of obvious interest back down two classes and back to his favoured 5f trip. Invincible Annice was slow away over 5f at Chester on her last run effectively losing the race before it started for her, but she had won over course and distance here one her previous run, whilst Music History won three starts ago and drops three classes here after only losing by 2.5 lengths in a Listed race at Newbury and it's worth noting that jockey Callum Rodriguez is flying right now, especially on Edward Bethell's horses...

Off very limited data, of course, Instant Expert also points to The Dragon King & Invincible Annice...

...but Call Me Harswell has a good to soft ground win, has won twice over today's trip and looks like he might try to nick this from the front...

The Dragon King & Invincible Annice are my obvious focus here, but Call Me Harswell edges Music History for third for me, due to the pace aspect and she ran pretty well in defeat at Thirsk last time out.

Leg 4 : 3.33 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

A really open-looking contest here with cases to made for all of them potentially. Papagei comes here seeking a hat-trick, gets a 7lbs weight allowance anad has won three of his last six (plus finishing third twice). Tafsir has also won won three of six with a third place finish in there too. She's one of three runners trained by Jim Goldie in this race, but Paul Mulrennan rides Tafsir with the other two (Soowaih & Spanish Hustle) being ridden by claimers, suggesting Tafsir is the yard's first pick.

The consistent Minstrel Knight might not win often enough, but is 333212 in his last six, represents the Bethell/Rodriguez combo from the previous race and gets the same 7lbs allowance as Papagei, effectively making him bottom weight here.

Tafsir's credentials are further enhanced by Instant Expert with Spectacular Style & Spanish Hustle also making their own claims here

...and this pair are likely to be up with the pace early on...

I'm definitely taking Papagei and Tafsir, but need a safety net from Spectacular Style, Spanish Hustle or Minstrel Knight and I think that with Roger Varian having such a great record here at Hamilton...

...Spectacular Style will be the one I choose.

Leg 5 : 4.08 Hamilton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Keldeo won last time out and has made the frame in five of her last eight starts, winning twice. Lady Celia is a course and distance winner who has won two of her last five, finishing fourth in the other three, but all in big-fields and not beaten by far. Strong Johnson has made the frame in three of his last four and drops in class here, whilst bottom-weight Stash The Cash produced his best run to date when beaten by a neck as a runner-up last time out.

There's no obvious front-runner here, but based on their recent efforts, Keldeo, Strong Johnson and Stash The Cash might be the ones to take it on...

I'm happy to pick from the four horses I've named here and I'm firm on the two females in the race, Keldeo & Lady Celia, so will need to choose between Strong Johnson & Stash The Cash if I'm taking a third pick and based on class movements after defeats, I'm taking class-dropper Strong Johnson rather than class-riser Stash The Cash.

Leg 6 : 4.43 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker won last time out, getting home by a neck over course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago, whilst fast-finishing Showhound produced his best run for over a year at Chester (3rd of 11, half a length down) in first-time cheekpieces which are retained here. Wichahpi has finished 1231 in her last four efforts on Turf whilst Gundogan (another from the Bethell/Rodriguez combo mentioned earlier) has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last seven races.

These are the four that I'd probably want to focus on here and of these, Wichahpi looks like the one who might try to dictate the way the race is run...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Game Breaker leads the way...

And if we're still in the mix after five races, I want to take a safety-first approach and will take all four runners mentioned.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 5 & 7

Leg 2: horses 4, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 5

Leg 4: horses 2, 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 6: horses 2, 3, 4 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A heads up, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and on Wednesday, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!



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Matsuri likely to head for Glasgow Stakes

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Matsuri is poised to briefly return to calmer waters following his fine performance in defeat in the Irish Derby.

Roger Varian’s lightly-raced colt has always been held in high regard by connections but an interrupted spring meant he missed the many Classic trials and a chance to showcase his ability in the Derby at Epsom.

Heading to the Curragh for the Irish equivalent on the back of just one run in novice company this term, he dealt with the steep rise in grade with real aplomb, coming home with his reputation enhanced having finished fourth and only beaten a length and a half by Los Angeles.

The Matsuri team were left pondering what could have been on the day with the son of Sea The Stars short of room when making his challenge in the closing stages.

Although certain he can make his mark at the highest level, Varian is now considering a drop to lesser company for his next start, with Hamilton’s Listed British Stallion Studs EBF Glasgow Stakes a likely option.

Varian said: “He’s a really smart horse who ran a really fine race. He perhaps didn’t get the run of the race but he showed he belonged at that level.

“He will step back in grade and will most likely go to Hamilton for the Glasgow Stakes. We will see after then (what we do) but he is a really nice horse.

“It will give him a bit more experience and he’s a horse who we think will be back into top company later in the year. But he had three runs in novices then into the Irish Derby and probably coming back a level might be the right thing to do in the short term. Long term we’re thinking he could be a top level horse.

“We will see where the summer takes us but what was pleasing about the Irish Derby is he showed he is well able to be considered a top horse and he just maybe lacked experience on the day.

“If you had heard me speak about the horse in the spring, we have always held him in high regard. We unfortunately couldn’t get him to a Derby trial otherwise he could have been an Epsom horse.

“He’s up and going now, showing he’s got ability and hopefully he can continue that.”



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Tower to hit Yorkshire Cup heights

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Tower Of London can rise above his rivals on the Knavesmire to lift the Boodles Yorkshire Cup.

Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old made his winter travels to the Middle East a worthwhile venture when landing both the Red Sea Turf Handicap in Riyadh and the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan.

Those lucrative triumphs came ahead of some respected performers and were a step forward on his European form from last summer.

The peak of that segment of his career was a fourth-placed run in the St Leger, where his stablemate Continuous may have been the clear winner but the placed horses finished fairly well bunched.

After some longer distance efforts since, Tower Of London drops down to a mile and six furlongs and looks the horse to beat under Ryan Moore.

On the same card, Running Queen can take the Clipper EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes at Listed level for Sam Sangster and Oisin Murphy.

The Kingman filly was the winner of a Salisbury conditions race when last seen in early May, a smart length-and-a-quarter success on soft ground that tees her up nicely for a step up in grade.

The other Listed contest on the card is the Sky Bet Fillies’ Stakes, where Charlie Appleby’s Devoted Queen catches the eye on her third career start.

Another daughter of Kingman out of multiple Group race-winning mare Fintry, her two prior outings ended in success as she took a Newmarket maiden by a good margin last year and returned to action in April to win on the all-weather at Kempton.

Now returned to turf, she looks poised to take the next step in her career under William Buick.

Newbury punters are advised to side with Diligently in the ARC & Sky Sports Racing Support Starlight Maiden Stakes.

There was plenty of chatter about Clive Cox’s juvenile prior to his racecourse introduction at Ascot a couple of weeks ago and by the time the gates opened, he was a 2-1 favourite.

Diligently’s supporters were ultimately left counting their losses, with the Harry Angel colt beaten two lengths into fourth place, but he should improve for the run and deserves a second chance.

Mount Teide is another who can confirm debut promise in the Starlight Express Novice Stakes.

Andrew Balding’s three-year-old was a big price at 25-1 at Newmarket’s Craven meeting, but hit the front at one stage before being caught close home by a trio of rivals.

Mount Teide was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Frankel’s half-brother Kikkuli and he can only progress.

In Ireland there is Group Three action in the Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes, where O’Brien has the key contender in Kyprios.

Once appearing to be the champion-elect in the staying division with a string of Group One successes in 2022, including the Gold Cup, the Goodwood Cup and the Irish St Leger, the chestnut has since been hindered by injury.

His winning streak may have been interrupted but his talent clearly remains and a Listed win in the Vintage Crop at Navan was a good way to return in late April.

This is a level up but in a small field, he is a clear choice and should not find too much hardship in the assignment if he can tap into the ability he has shown in abundance previously.

SELECTIONS

AINTREE: 5.45 Roaring Legend, 6.20 Homme Public, 6.55 Alnilam, 7.30 Kinondo Kwetu, 8.05 Majestic Jameela, 8.40 Bells of Ufford.

HAMILTON: 5.30 Captain Corcoran, 6.05 Gobsmacked, 6.40 Quintus Arrius, 7.15 Capital Theory, 7.50 Majestic Newlaw, 8.25 Lia Rose, 9.00 Bernie The Bear.

KILBEGGAN: 4.25 Minella Buddy, 5.00 Run For Harry, 5.35 Oh So Charming, 6.10 Jhentong Enki, 6.45 Ottizzini, 7.20 Warm In Gorey, 7.55 Take All, 8.30 Custom Taylor.

LEOPARDSTOWN: 4.15 Mount Kilimanjaro, 4.50 Cardinal Zin, 5.25 Giuseppe Cassioli, 5.55 Storm Eric, 6.30 Speckled Meadow, 7.05 Kyprios, 7.40 Charlie Darling, 8.15 The Black Tiger.

NEWBURY: 2.00 Darvel, 2.30 Glam De Vega, 3.00 Diligently, 3.30 Jarraaf, 4.00 Clockmaker, 4.35 Houstonn, 5.10 Papagei, 5.40 Waxing Gibbous.

NEWMARKET: 2.23 Powdering, 2.53 Creative Story, 3.23 Skukuza, 3.53 Gold Medallist, 4.25 Moktasaab, 4.55 Unico.

YORK: 2.15 Running Queen, 2.45 Botanical, 3.15 Devoted Queen, 3.45 TOWER OF LONDON (NAP), 4.15 Lead Artist, 4.45 Challet, 5.20 Vantheman.

DOUBLE: Tower Of London and Running Queen.



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