Tix Picks, Monday 23/09/24

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Sedgefield & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Wolverhampton, but it's a dreadful looking card, so we're heading North to Hamilton Park for six races on good to soft ground, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.48 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Rebecca's Girl is the clear 'form' horse here, finishing 2123 in her last four, but Temper Trap was a runner-up last time out, Absolute Dream has a win and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and has won both his last two races here at Hamilton whilst Retirement Beckons is a 4-time course and distance winner.

Instant Expert also says Rebecca's Girl is the one to beat...

...and although there's not a great deal of pace in the field, she's one of the more likely prominent runners on a track that favours leaders, as is Temper Trap...

So, I'll be taking Rebecca's Girl & Temper trap, of course, but also adding CD specialist Retirement Beckons, just in case!

Leg 2 : 2.23 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 6f...

It'll probably pay to focus on the bottom half of the card here (all fillies), even if Misty Sky, Thecla and Koulikoro all step up in class after being in the frame last time out. Bottom weight Koulikoro was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in an 11-runner race after the winner had nicked an early lead, but our filly stayed on well and there should be more to come. She's a half-sister to a few winners and she'd be my pick here.

Next best would be Thecla, whose runner-up finish on her second/last outing earlier this month was much better than her debut and further progression should/could see her get even closer to breaking her duck today, whilst Misty Sky is another who seems to be improving. She refused to race on 'debut' at Pontefract in June, but was then 5th of 8 (4.5 lengths defeat) when she finally did run at Chester, but was 3rd of 8, beaten by just over a length and a half at Chepstow last time out, so so she still have more to show.

I'll take all three here.

Leg 3 : 2.58 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f...

The Dragon King had won two on the bounce before a Class 2 defeat (6th of 16, 4L down) at Goodwood last time out and is of obvious interest back down two classes and back to his favoured 5f trip. Invincible Annice was slow away over 5f at Chester on her last run effectively losing the race before it started for her, but she had won over course and distance here one her previous run, whilst Music History won three starts ago and drops three classes here after only losing by 2.5 lengths in a Listed race at Newbury and it's worth noting that jockey Callum Rodriguez is flying right now, especially on Edward Bethell's horses...

Off very limited data, of course, Instant Expert also points to The Dragon King & Invincible Annice...

...but Call Me Harswell has a good to soft ground win, has won twice over today's trip and looks like he might try to nick this from the front...

The Dragon King & Invincible Annice are my obvious focus here, but Call Me Harswell edges Music History for third for me, due to the pace aspect and she ran pretty well in defeat at Thirsk last time out.

Leg 4 : 3.33 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

A really open-looking contest here with cases to made for all of them potentially. Papagei comes here seeking a hat-trick, gets a 7lbs weight allowance anad has won three of his last six (plus finishing third twice). Tafsir has also won won three of six with a third place finish in there too. She's one of three runners trained by Jim Goldie in this race, but Paul Mulrennan rides Tafsir with the other two (Soowaih & Spanish Hustle) being ridden by claimers, suggesting Tafsir is the yard's first pick.

The consistent Minstrel Knight might not win often enough, but is 333212 in his last six, represents the Bethell/Rodriguez combo from the previous race and gets the same 7lbs allowance as Papagei, effectively making him bottom weight here.

Tafsir's credentials are further enhanced by Instant Expert with Spectacular Style & Spanish Hustle also making their own claims here

...and this pair are likely to be up with the pace early on...

I'm definitely taking Papagei and Tafsir, but need a safety net from Spectacular Style, Spanish Hustle or Minstrel Knight and I think that with Roger Varian having such a great record here at Hamilton...

...Spectacular Style will be the one I choose.

Leg 5 : 4.08 Hamilton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Keldeo won last time out and has made the frame in five of her last eight starts, winning twice. Lady Celia is a course and distance winner who has won two of her last five, finishing fourth in the other three, but all in big-fields and not beaten by far. Strong Johnson has made the frame in three of his last four and drops in class here, whilst bottom-weight Stash The Cash produced his best run to date when beaten by a neck as a runner-up last time out.

There's no obvious front-runner here, but based on their recent efforts, Keldeo, Strong Johnson and Stash The Cash might be the ones to take it on...

I'm happy to pick from the four horses I've named here and I'm firm on the two females in the race, Keldeo & Lady Celia, so will need to choose between Strong Johnson & Stash The Cash if I'm taking a third pick and based on class movements after defeats, I'm taking class-dropper Strong Johnson rather than class-riser Stash The Cash.

Leg 6 : 4.43 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker won last time out, getting home by a neck over course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago, whilst fast-finishing Showhound produced his best run for over a year at Chester (3rd of 11, half a length down) in first-time cheekpieces which are retained here. Wichahpi has finished 1231 in her last four efforts on Turf whilst Gundogan (another from the Bethell/Rodriguez combo mentioned earlier) has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last seven races.

These are the four that I'd probably want to focus on here and of these, Wichahpi looks like the one who might try to dictate the way the race is run...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Game Breaker leads the way...

And if we're still in the mix after five races, I want to take a safety-first approach and will take all four runners mentioned.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 5 & 7

Leg 2: horses 4, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 5

Leg 4: horses 2, 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 6: horses 2, 3, 4 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A heads up, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and on Wednesday, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24