Tag Archive for: Hereford racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all four must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.42 Southwell
  • 5.20 Ballinrobe
  • 8.12 Southwell

Aside from one class 3 contest at Fakenham, Class 4 is about as 'good' as it gets in the UK for Tuesday, so let's focus on a pair of runners from The Shortlist, who'll take each other plus nine more on in the 7.00 Hereford, a 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a trip just 73 yards short of two and a half miles on good ground...

My Chiquita has won each of her last two over hurdles and Big Blue Moon won last time out. Notnowlinda and Soldierofthestorm both won their penultimate races, whilst all bar Sacchoandvanzetti (17 losses on the bounce) have won at least once in their last six.

Sacchoandvanzetti's cause isn't helped by stepping up two classes here, but Notnowlinda, Silver Shade and Just Go For It all drop two classes. My Chiquita moves up one grade and Just Loose Change drops one.

It's handicap debut day for Soldat Force and My Chiquita and a second crack for both Cabhfuilfungi and Silver Shade with the latter also making a yard debut, as does Soldierofthestorm.

Most of the field have raced in the last ten weeks, but Just Loose Change, Soldat Forte and Silver Shade might well need the run after breaks of four months, ten months and nineteen months respectively.

Soldierofthestorm's win here two starts ago on Valentine's Day is this field's only course and distance success, although My Chiquita, Just Loose Change, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It have all previously won over a similar trip and Just Go For It (2m6f hurdle) has also won here at Hereford before, as has Notnowlinda (2m½f hurdle)...

Instant Expert (above) shows My Chiquita and Soldierofthestorm as ones to note, just as you'd expect from their position on TS (quick note, that The Shortlist and Instant Expert might look alike, but they do work off different parameters as per the user guide), whilst Notnowlinda, Throne Hall, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go for It also have some decent win percentages under these conditions.

Since 2010 in similar races here at Hereford, only one front-runner has managed to win...

...with those racing prominently just in behind faring best of all. If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

I'd say that Soldat Forte is the most likely front-runner and the one with the target on his back for later on.

Summary

Soldat Forte is the likely front-runner and they tend to get caught here at Hereford and the fact that he hasn't raced for ten months increases that likelihood. I'm also against Silver Shade based on his lengthy lay-off and even Just Loose Change might be a bit rusty.

Sacchoandvanzetti is bang out of form and up two classes, whilst Throne Hall has yet to win at either track or trip, so I'm now left with My Chiquita, Notnowlinda, Soldierofthestorm, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It. The latter is likely to want rain to come, as he'd prefer some cut in the ground and Cabhfuilfungi has the lowest win percentage of the six, so those two are the most vulnerable here.

You could then make a case for any of the four that are left from a place perspective, but the one I'd want to be on for win purposes would be My Chiquita and I'd expect Notnowlinda to give her the most trouble.

Unfortunately the market also likes My Chiquita and has installed her as the 10/3 favourite (as of 4.35pm Monday) with Notnowlinda an 11/2 chance. Another of my final four, Big Blue Moon sits between them in the market, but Soldierofthestorm looks big at 12/1 and would be the E/W suggestion here.



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Racing Insights, Monday 29/01/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.40 Punchestown
  • 2.20 Plumpton
  • 3.10 Punchestown
  • 4.50 Wolverhampton

Monday racing is generally quite poor and today is no exception; our two 'free' UK races are a 6-runner, Class 5 chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, so I'm going to have a look at one of the day's joint highest-rated in the UK, the 3.20 Plumpton, which at just over £9200 to the winner is also the day's biggest prize. The race itself could be a good test of stamina being a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1f (plus another two-thirds of a furlong for rail movements) on soft ground that should be a little better in places...

On bare finishing positions, For Gina's 3332121 looks the best on paper and she's the only LTO winner in the field, but she is up 2 classes here. Fellow mare Lassue has also been in good form (21133 so far over hurdles) and she actually drops down from Class 2 here, as do top-weight Diesel d'Allier and Ilovethenightlife, who has won two of her last five.

Hasty Parisien is the only one winless in seven or more, having lost 15 on the bounce in a career that has seen him win just one of twenty starts and he's the most experienced runner in the field, whilst the least exposed, Doughmore Bay has only made three starts and this will be only his second run in a handicap, having finished 7th of 20 over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time out. That was 73 days ago and all his rivals have raced since then, but all have had at least three weeks rest.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...but doesn't give us too many clues this time, if truth be told, although it does cast more doubt upon Hasty Parisian, whose 1 from 8 in this grade isn't great. Lassue will like the ground and For Gina will get the trip readily enough, but she is up in class here.  The place data doesn't really help Hasty Parisian either...

Pace is today's free feature and we look at the Pace tab, we can look at how the field have approached their last four races and how their average pace rating over those races stacks up against their rivals as follows...

We don't seem to have a genuine front-runner in the pack and the onus might well fall upon For Gina and/or Hasty Parisian to set the tempo of the race with  Monjules the back marker and the likes of Ilovethenightlife and Lassue just further ahead in what technically would then be classed as mid-division and that's probably the best place to be based on the limited pace data we have from similar races here at Hereford...

Summary

I see this as being a three-horse race between (alphabetically) Doughmore Bay, Ilovethenightlife and Lassue with Ilovethenightlife being my marginal choice at 5/1 (as of 7.20pm Sunday). She was in great form last season and looked like she was crying our for a further/tougher task last time out.

As for Lassue and Doughmore Bay, I see little between them and either could well make the frame, but at best prices of 2/1 and 4/1, I'll leave them alone.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 04/01/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 11.45 Lingfield
  • 12.58 Hereford
  • 2.28 Hereford
  • 6.10 Newcastle

It's a shockingly bad day of racing on Thursday and I'm struggling to be enthused about it if truth be told, but the show must go on! The highest-rated races are flour Class 4 affairs, three of which are maidens, so we'll tackle the one that isn't! That's the 2.58 Hereford, a 9-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on soft ground that might be a little better in places...

Not much in the way of recent winning form from this group, but the 11yr old veteran Len Brennan won five races ago, Langley Hundred won seven races ago and Honey I'm Good won six and seven races back, plus this sole mare in the race has won three of her four starts over fences.

Hardy Boy is winless in eight, but has been been a runner-up beaten by just a neck in each of his last two, whilst Invincible Nao, Inflexible and Len Brennan all finished third last time out, although the latter hasn't raced for 15 months since that last run and closer inspection shows he was third of just three, beaten by 27 lengths and he was last of five in his penultimate race, beaten by 55 lengths.

Those last two efforts, the lay-of and his age are more than enough to put me off Len Brennan, even if he is making a yard debut for Anthony Charlton and is one of just two winners over a similar trip to this one. Honey I'm Good is the other previous distance winner and she steps up a class here, as do the bottom three in the weights, Shot Boii, Paseo and Royal Act.

We know that Len Brennan has been off the track since early October 2022 and has only raced twice in the last 21 months, but all of his rivals have had an outing in the last five weeks with Paseo turned back out just five days after a 43 length defeat at Taunton, when only 6th of 9. I'm not sure a step up in class is the right move here less than a week later.

Feature of the day is, of course, Instant Expert and it shows how the field have performed in previous races under similar conditions...

...and that's a pretty bleak picture with the exception, of course, of the mare Honey I'm Good. I think we're going to need some place data to help us out here!

That's a little more useful with Hardy Boy, Langley Hundred and Inflexible at least adding some green to the reds! Royal Act looks out of his depth and I think he now joins Len Brennan and Paseo on the sidelines, leaving me with six to consider for a race that appears to reward front-runners and those who race fairly prominently...

Unfortunately, we don't have many who like to set the pace here, aside from Royal Act, if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...although Honey I'm Good and Shot Boii both have two 3+ scores in their last four outings and Hardy Boy was an unlucky pacemaker last time out.

Summary

None of these really make a forceful case to be backed as a winner, but Hardy Boy is the most consistent of them all and having been beaten by just a neck in each of his last two starts, he's certainly knocking on the door and would be my tentative pick at 9/2 (Hills & Bet365 @ 4.40pm).

Elsewhere, I'd probably look for some E/W value and if Honey I'm Good (the Instant Expert eyecatcher) puts her modest hurdles form behind her now she's back over fences (3 wins from 4 in this sphere), she could be dangerous at 9/1, whilst Shot Boii would also be of interest at 7's, but I'd probably want/need him to drift a little to become an E/W bet.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Kelso
  • 2.00 Hereford
  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 3.55 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...

Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.

Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.

All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.

Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...

...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.

Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.

Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.

With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...

...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.

He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...

...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...

...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.

Summary

My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.

Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.

He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/02/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 3.00 Hereford
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

And I think I'll see how course 5-year specialist Paul Nicholls gets on with his 5yo Pleasant Man in our 'free' jumps race, the 3.00 Hereford, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m4f on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that this would be a three-horse race between our featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan and in a race with no LTO winners, their runner-up finishes are the best result on offer, whilst Bucks Dream was third LTO. Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan both won two starts ago and of the rest, only Toronto has win in their card-visible form line.

Pleasant Man is up one class here, as are the bottom two on the card, Bucks Dream and Beannaigh Do with the latter making just a second handicap appearance, whilst Highland Frolic and Cabrakan are on handicap debuts. Top weight Forecast is the only previous course winner, having landed a 2m3½f contest here, whilst Bashers Reflection won over 2m3f at Warwick. Elsewhere not much to write home about with regards to course/distance form. All eleven have raced in the past seven weeks or so, with Pleasant Man seen most recently when going down by half a length at Taunton last Tuesday.

Instant Expert backs up this lack of relevant course/distance form and actually paints a pretty dismal picture of how this field has performed under these conditions...

Not good at all, bar Toronto's going/class form, but thankfully the place stats do at least give me something to work with...

At this point, I need to be pretty ruthless and get rid of some of these runners, so I'm going rule out Forecast (class), Astrophysicist (going/class) and Beannaigh Do (generally!), giving me eight to choose from and their recent pace profiles are as follows...

...suggesting Cabrakan as the likely pace-maker with Malaita and probably Highland Frolic tucked in behind. Bashers Reflection does have a 4, but he also has a 1 and he does generally run in mid-division or further back. Vengeance and Toronto look like being our held-up back markers in a race where unusually for an NH contest, there's no great pace bias...

Yes, mid-div runners have fared worse than the others, but had one more of the 41 runners won, they'd also have a win % of  9.76% so I'm not entirely convinced that any running style is that much better than the others here.

Summary

Not all races can be worked out to a degree of clarity using the toolbox and when that happens, like here, you've two choices. One is to just walk away and look at the next race, the other is to go off recent form and your 'gut feeling'.

Walking away is probably the best option/advice here, but if I was to see the process out to a conclusion and abet, I'd have little choice but to go back to my original trio of  featured runner Pleasant Man, Bashers Reflection and Cabrakan, whilst having a second look at Toronto, due to his Instant Expert numbers.

Pleasant Man has finished 322 in three starts this year and is up 2lbs after recent runner-up defeats by a shirt head and half a length, but he is up in class here. Bashers Reflection won by half a length on New Year's Eve and was hit by a 9lb rise. He has since been a 5.5 length runner-up and is up another 2lbs, whilst Cabrakan has finished 212 in his three starts over hurdles with a LCass 2win and a pair of Class 4 runner-up finishes, but he was beaten by 15 lengths last time, racing 3f further than he's gone before and certainly hasn't been treated leniently by the handicapper off an opening mark of 106, just 1lb lower than Pleasant Man and a pound heavier than Basher's Reflection.

Based on that, I'd have to agree with the bookies by saying that I think the 11/4 Pleasant Man should win here ahead of Cabrakan (generally 3/1) and Basher's Reflection who is as big as 6/1 with PP. If he drifts any, he could be a live E/W play.

As for Toronto, he's available at 25's with bet365 (3 places0 and 22's with Skybet for four places but on recent form, that would be a bit of a stretch. He won over 1m7f and over 2m½f on his first and third efforts over hurdles, but since that second win in May he has struggled going down by 19L, 30L, 34L and 28L off decreasing marks of 123, 117, 113 and 109 LTO. He's down another 4lbs here and if regaining last summer's form, could get involved, but he's also another yet to travel beyond 2m1f.

If you want an E/W punt on Toronto, please don't throw too much money at him!



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