SOUTHWELL (NH) – APRIL 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £19.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 59.0% units went through – 6/1 – 2/1* - 11/2
Race 2: 45.8% of the remaining units when through – 10/3* & 5/1
Race 3: 93.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 12/1 – 7/1
Race 4: 37.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 10/3 (3/1)
Race 5: 73.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 50/1 – 7/2
Race 6: 53.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 – 16/1 – 3/1 (5/2)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell (NH):
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Mondo Cane), 4 (Ulis De Vassy) & 1 (Beni Light)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Achille) & 3 (Riddlestown)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Whoshotwho)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Sandhurst Lad), 4 (Western Wave) & 1 (Shinooki)
Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Pineapple Rush), 4 (With Discretion) & 2 (Phoeniciana)
Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Cosmic King) & 6 (Tickanrun)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: More Placepot success yesterday, albeit we ‘only’ claimed one fifth of the £190.50 Ludlow dividend. Although MONDO CANE has only win via 12 assignments at the track to date, it’s worth noting that the eleven-year-old has finished ‘in the three’ six times down the years, whilst the success was gained under soft conditions. Both of the course victories for ULIS DE VASSY were won on soft going, whilst BENI LIGHT completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader via three renewals though that said, two favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
Record of the three course winners in the opening race:
1/12—Mondo Cane (soft)
2/3—Ulis De Vassy (2 x soft)
2/25—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)
2.30: ACHILLE looks a typical soft/heavy raider for Venetia Williams who saddled a couple of winners yesterday. RIDDLESTOWN is the lone course winner in the field and though the trade press would have you believe that better ground would be appreciated by the eleven-year-old gelding, Riddlestown is a three time winner under soft conditions. Unless the rain north of Watford becomes heavy, I believe it could be a close run affair between the two nominated thoroughbreds.
Favourite factor: Two of the three contests have been won by favourites though the other market leader finished out of the money.
Record of the course winner in the field:
7/24—Riddlestown (4 x good & 3 x soft)
3.00: It shows the quality of the rest of the horses in the field that good ground winner WHOSHOTWHO is rated heads and shoulders above this lot, aside from CASA TALL, with this pair fully expected to dominate proceedings well before the business end of proceedings comes into play.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:
3.35: WESTERN WAVE and SHINOOKI are two alternative win and place options to SANDHURST LAD who I readily admit looks a more likely winner. Richard Johnson’s mount is the first of three booked rides on the card for the champion jockey.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites via two renewals has claimed a Placepot position to date, albeit it was via a (10/3) victory.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Shinooki (good to soft)
4.05: WITH DISCRETION and PINEAPPLE RUSH are the likeliest winners of the contest though PHOENICIANA remains something thing of a dark horse on behalf of the Lucy Wadham team. PINEAPPLE RUSH is Richard Johnson’s second ride on the card and is marginally preferred to WITH DISCRETION on this occasion/
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader prevailed.
4.35: There is plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue for TICKANRUN whereby James Bowen could add to his total of 50 winners which he has achieved in double quick time thus far. COSMIC KING arguably stands in his way here making his first appearance for Fergal O’Brien who knows how to sweeten up new inmates to his yard – and then some!
Favourite factor: 7/4 and 5/2 favourites have been sunk without trace either side of the successful 7/5 market leader two years ago.
Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.