Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Monday 29/01/24

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.40 Punchestown
  • 2.20 Plumpton
  • 3.10 Punchestown
  • 4.50 Wolverhampton

Monday racing is generally quite poor and today is no exception; our two 'free' UK races are a 6-runner, Class 5 chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, so I'm going to have a look at one of the day's joint highest-rated in the UK, the 3.20 Plumpton, which at just over £9200 to the winner is also the day's biggest prize. The race itself could be a good test of stamina being a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1f (plus another two-thirds of a furlong for rail movements) on soft ground that should be a little better in places...

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On bare finishing positions, For Gina's 3332121 looks the best on paper and she's the only LTO winner in the field, but she is up 2 classes here. Fellow mare Lassue has also been in good form (21133 so far over hurdles) and she actually drops down from Class 2 here, as do top-weight Diesel d'Allier and Ilovethenightlife, who has won two of her last five.

Hasty Parisien is the only one winless in seven or more, having lost 15 on the bounce in a career that has seen him win just one of twenty starts and he's the most experienced runner in the field, whilst the least exposed, Doughmore Bay has only made three starts and this will be only his second run in a handicap, having finished 7th of 20 over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time out. That was 73 days ago and all his rivals have raced since then, but all have had at least three weeks rest.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...but doesn't give us too many clues this time, if truth be told, although it does cast more doubt upon Hasty Parisian, whose 1 from 8 in this grade isn't great. Lassue will like the ground and For Gina will get the trip readily enough, but she is up in class here.  The place data doesn't really help Hasty Parisian either...

Pace is today's free feature and we look at the Pace tab, we can look at how the field have approached their last four races and how their average pace rating over those races stacks up against their rivals as follows...

We don't seem to have a genuine front-runner in the pack and the onus might well fall upon For Gina and/or Hasty Parisian to set the tempo of the race with  Monjules the back marker and the likes of Ilovethenightlife and Lassue just further ahead in what technically would then be classed as mid-division and that's probably the best place to be based on the limited pace data we have from similar races here at Hereford...

Summary

I see this as being a three-horse race between (alphabetically) Doughmore Bay, Ilovethenightlife and Lassue with Ilovethenightlife being my marginal choice at 5/1 (as of 7.20pm Sunday). She was in great form last season and looked like she was crying our for a further/tougher task last time out.

As for Lassue and Doughmore Bay, I see little between them and either could well make the frame, but at best prices of 2/1 and 4/1, I'll leave them alone.

 

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