Tag Archive for: Iain Jardine

Monday Musings: Fours, and All Sorts

With more than a week to go before the next big thing, York’s Ebor meeting, It may be a suitable time for a little quantity over quality, writes Tony Stafford. For Iain Jardine, whose week had brought a tragic note with the passing of his barn manager John McPherson, 54, found on Thursday morning after dying in his sleep, it ended on a much happier note.

Runners from the Jardine yard took the 70 miles or so ride up the west coast of Scotland from the Borders to Ayr and clocked up four consecutive winners. Not the least surprising were the prices and that there were three tight photo-finishes.

Jardine kicked off with 7/2 shot Parisiac by a head; followed with the only clear scorer, 16/1 outsider Can’t Stop Now; with Giselles Issy (12/1) completing the hat-trick by a neck. The four-timer, amounting to 5,468/1, was completed with another head finish by 9/2 Jonny Concrete. This is one achievement that will indeed be set in stone.

That brought Jardine to 40 wins for the season, more than two-thirds of the way to his career-best of 58 in an always upwardly mobile career which began only in 2011.

Jardine’s was not the only Saturday four-timer, but in the case of championship-leading Oisin Murphy, his quartet at Newmarket illustrated why he is unbackable to win a fourth career title.

Winners count towards the jockeys’ title only from May 4, the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. In 98 days therefore, Oisin has already passed 100 (101) and can add (but nobody bothers about that) 46 clocked up in the first four months of the campaign.

That puts him a mere 122 behind the record of Gordon Richards (later Sir) set in 1947 when the sport was just getting going after the Second World War and Richards had the benefit of compliant starters under the old gate start. They always made sure Gordon was ready!

Unlike in Gordon’s day, getting to the races has been eased by motorway travel and, for the top boys, small planes or helicopters to get the likes of Ryan Moore, William Buick and no doubt Murphy home safe and quickly.

At the same time, the ruling that stopped double meetings might have reduced the potential for racking up the wins in the summer when the fields tend to thin out.

That’s all well and good, but rather than stick around to mop up the all-weather opportunities after November 4 when the flat season ends at Doncaster, the named trio will be off far and wide in search of the riches available in those countries. That's in contrast to the UK, racing here held in thrall by the bookmakers and racecourses whose strangling effect has been evident by yet another Levy shortfall and the missing millions from media rights payments that never find their way to a race purse.

But I wonder. Those riches will still be available after the turn of the year to Murphy, who is already virtually assured of a fourth title to go with the three he collected from 2019 to 2021 before his ban. He’s 36 clear of Rossa Ryan who also continues to thrive despite last year’s break up from the poisoned chalice that is retained rider for Amo Racing. Maybe David Egan and his calm personality can outlive the previous incumbents in that position.

No, I would like to see Oisin stay for the winter. There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner in the UK since Nijinsky in 1970. How sweet would it be for Oisin to exceed Sir Gordon's 269 and break a record set the year after I was born. Blimey, when you think of it like that!

So, say he stays, just taking four days off for the Breeders’ Cup and one or two more for overseas spectaculars like Irish Champions' Weekend. Then he would only need to maintain the present rate of progress to collect the 123 wins he needs.

Somebody should step in to sponsor it – no doubt a bookie like Fred Done (Betfred) or Bet Victor – and publicise it with a daily update on his progress towards this record which has seemed an impossibility for much of the time since Lester Piggott was the successor to Richards.

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Racing In South Africa might have been regarded as a backwater for a long time but efforts to redevelop it and the removal of the ban on importing horses from South Africa to Europe has given it a massive shot in the arm in the season which ended last month.

I keep in touch via a regular look at the well-regarded five times weekly Turf Talk newsletter and was able to tell William Knight before his horse Holkham Bay won at Ascot on Saturday that his South African lady jockey Rachel Venniker was very talented.

The last few months, until season's end, Turf Talk had a daily Richard Fourie barometer as the leading jockey approached and then galloped past the previous record of 335 wins in a season on June 8. He eased off a shade but still stretched to 377 by the end of last month.

Looking at his stats on the At the Races site, Oisin Murphy’s strike-rate looks almost pedestrian. Fourie over the past 12 months has won 276 races on turf and another 106 on all-weather surfaces, so in all 382 – 115 better than Gordon’s best.

Just why nobody has thought to recruit rampant Richard for a spell riding over here, I don’t know. He wouldn’t be the first South African rider to do well, Michael (Muis) Roberts won our title in 1992 and is now a successful trainer back home. I’ve told the tale before, but Roberts and I shared flights travelling to, I think, three tracks in one day.

Getting off the small plane to go to Leicester, he nimbly stepped out. By the time I’d followed him, Neil, the pilot was already on the move, and the rear fin knocked me over with a right bang. The bruise was there as evidence for a good few days!

Returning to Fourie, it's probably more likely that he could become another South African to test his skills in Hong Kong.

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The phrase plus ca change, plus la meme chose [roughly, 'the more things change, the more they stay the same'] doesn’t seem to apply to life in the mid-2020s. Long-held ideas on behaviour and respect seem to have gone out the window in the UK and last week's riots came as a shock to everyone that had been expecting something much more likely to ruin Paris’s Olympic Games.

They, though, have gone along famously well and the home crowds have shown that there is a place for patriotic support without its boiling over into violence.

For the regulars in the Newmarket owners’ room, last Saturday was a very sad occasion and one where change will certainly not be la meme chose, but very different. We (I’ve plenty of friends who get me owner’s badges) who regularly attend have marvelled at the ultra-professional Lynda Burton as she runs the lunchroom with welcoming efficiency, never seeming to get slower than a fast canter as she attends to the inevitable issues that crop up.

In times when catering staff can be at either end of the acceptable spectrum, she has gathered some excellent colleagues, so it was a shock to hear that owing to an “unpleasantness”, as she described it, Lynda had decided to resign forthwith.

I’ve known her for 15 years from when she was running the Goodwood owners’ room, before she transferred to Newmarket. It has been very demanding, travelling so often from her home in the West Country and now, with a grandchild and as her husband has retired, Lynda is reserving her considerable energies for closer to home.

Judging by the bouquets of flowers and other examples of gratitude for the past years’ efforts, I’m clearly not the only one to rue her departure. Her shoes will not be easy to fill. Good luck Newmarket!

At Goodwood I had a great reunion with a friend who around two decades ago asked me if I would introduce him to Sir Henry Cecil. Gerhard Schoeningh, a German based in London where he worked in finance, wished to ask Henry whether he would be prepared to train his home-bred horses, mostly stayers.

Among the best he sent to the master trainer were Brisk Breeze and Templestern, but he says that when Henry died, he failed to find another trainer to suit him. Instead, he bought a racecourse, Hoppegarten in Berlin, and over time he has lovingly improved and restored it.

I asked how it’s gone. He said: “It’s getting better and better every year. This year, I hope we can break even!”

Yesterday, he staged his most valuable and important race, the €100k to the winner 134th running of the Grosser Preis von Berlin (Group 1). He was still trying to recruit supplementary entries for the race at the time and his negotiations with Joseph O’Brien bore fruit with Al Riffa, the excellent runner-up to City Of Troy in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park last month, lining up.

Ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, Al Riffa started the 3/5 favourite and won by five lengths. Gerhart has asked me to try to come over either in October or next spring. I’ve never been to Germany, but you know, I might take him up on it.

- TS

Monday Musings: Willie Mullings and A Plot Awry

The Dublin Racing Festival, two days of the best jump racing in Ireland and perfectly placed five weeks before Cheltenham to offer definitive clues about the likely destination of many of its major prizes, did its job this weekend, writes Tony Stafford.

It also made the more than considerable likelihood that Willie Mullins will see off Gordon Elliott as champion trainer once again in their homeland into a formality. Fifteen races, mostly Graded and bolstered by some very valuable and fiercely contested handicaps, were framed. Mullins won nine of them, four of seven on Saturday and five from eight yesterday.

Elliott won one, in his juvenile hurdle niche where he still has the stranglehold on Triumph Hurdle calculations after Mullins decided that he needed to give French Aseel a little more time to settle into the stable routine. Ruby Walsh, the most brilliant race reader (Flat and jumps to be fair) I’ve yet to encounter on television let us in on that secret when discussing the Elliott winner Quilixios, who has supplanted French Aseel as second favourite at 6-1 behind his unbeaten stable-companion Zanahiyr, a 5-2 chance.

But elsewhere at least three Mullins Cheltenham candidates cemented their claims on major prizes next month. Last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle winner, Monkfish, maintained his unblemished record over fences in the 2m 5.5f novice and is now an 11/10 shot for the Festival (RSA as was) Novices’ Chase over 3m1f. If you think he’ll go instead in the shorter Marsh Chase you can have 7/1. Don’t take it because he won’t!

Saturday’s bumper winner, Kilcruit, bred by Willie Mullins’ mother, is now the 6-4 favourite for the Festival Bumper after a 12-length romp under the breeder’s grandson Patrick in Saturday’s Grade 2 event. The only problem with taking that 6-4 is that there are sure to be other Mullins runners in the race; but they will need to be good to beat this one.

Incidentally, when he made his debut at Clonmel last season, Kilcruit was actually beaten, and at the time was trained by Willie’s brother and the rider’s uncle Tony, who had such a spectacular summer with the staying German-bred mare Princess Zoe, winner of the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp last autumn.

Kilcruit turned up in Willie’s string for his seasonal debut at Navan in December where he won by almost ten lengths and, up in grade, had even more real estate and a good deal of extra goodwill to spare over Saturday’s rivals.

A third certain Festival favourite will be yesterday’s easy novice hurdle winner, Appreciate It, now only 7/4 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. All three of these will have been heavily linked in multiple bets but the bookmakers are far less likely to be wrong-footed by these as they clearly were over the weekend by a very well-planned and almost as well-executed three-horse bet that could easily have repercussions for the far-sighted originators, or unscrupulous conspirators, according to where you stand.

Late on Saturday night, bookmakers, among whom Bet Victor have come forward to declare their hand, were assailed online by punters all wanting to back three horses, I would imagine in singles and linked multiples.

In Saturday night’s early betting they were all outsiders with only one – the middle leg, Blowing Dixie, at Southwell – having any realistic credentials according to yesterday’s Racing Post analyses.

Anyway, the three horses were firstly Fire Away, a 20/1 chance in the newspaper’s betting but double that the night before. In his last runs in Ireland he had been 7th of 15, beaten 38 lengths at 20/1; 14th of 25, beaten 25 lengths at 66/1; 8th of 11, beaten 26 lengths at 16/1; 6th of 8, beaten 39 lengths at 8/1; and PU of 16 at 8/1.

Those runs in Ireland took place between November 19th 2019 and March 2nd 2020. Transferred to Daragh Bourke’s Scottish stable he had three runs in late summer. They were 10th of 15, beaten 51 lengths at 50/1; 7th of 10, beaten 61 lengths at 20/1; and, last time out on September 16th, he started 50/1 and pulled up in a field of 11. Over the period his rating had fallen from an initial mark of 116 to 98.

Yesterday he was making his debut for a new stable, having joined Laura Morgan’s team near Melton Mowbray from Bourke only 11 days before the race. “He had two horses for sale and I originally had a different one in mind but chose him. I’m delighted I did,” she told Racing TV, understandably as he won the race unchallenged by 18 lengths at even money!

Leg two, Blowing Dixie, had won four races at Southwell, all of them over a mile and a half when trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam but, even so, for an 80-rated four-year-old Fibresand specialist to realise as much as £50k at last year’s July Sales at Newmarket might seem rather surprising.

Fetch it he did and, switched to the ultra-shrewd Iain Jardine, Blowing Dixie began a busy autumn schedule running six times between early September and late November. His card reads 7th of 7, beaten 25 lengths at 80/1; 8th of 9, beaten 22 lengths at 66/1; 7th of 8, beaten 28 lengths at 10/1; 10th of 13, beaten 21 lengths at 66/1; 5th of 6, beaten 16 lengths at 66/1; and finally 8th of 9, beaten 25 lengths at 17/2.

Starting for Jardine on a mark of 80, by yesterday he was down 15lb to 65. A 12/1 shot in the Racing Post, he started 4/6 and won by an easy two and a half lengths. His most obvious market rival, Drew Breeze, winner of two of his previous three races, started slowly and was never nearer than fifth of the eight runners, beaten 16 lengths at 13/8.

Daragh Bourke also figured in the third member of the overnight triumvirate. A former £260,000 buy from Tattersalls Cheltenham sale in 2017 after winning an Irish point and Galway bumper, Gallahers Cross didn’t win for Nicky Henderson and was sold on for £40k.

Between June 2019 and January last year he ran five times for Bourke beginning with an 8th of 9, beaten 48 lengths at 7/1, when the gloss of the decent placed Henderson form had not properly worn off. Next came an 8th of 10, beaten 62 lengths at 20/1; 11th of 12, beaten 54 lengths at 28/1; 7th of 7, beaten 39 lengths at 16/1; and, finally, last month, 7th of 8, beaten 50 lengths at 9/1. This time the official reaction to the string of poor performances was a reduction from 115 to 90.

So it is possible, even on the scantiest of scrutiny, to discern a pattern. Each of the three horses had a series of very poor runs from their respective (two, close together) bases in Scotland in the latter half of last year, and all three dropped just over a stone in the ratings and suddenly found form enough on the home gallops to persuade certain people to want to back them, and all on the same day.

The only thing that went wrong – possibly denying winning trebles into the thousands of odds against – was that Gallahers Cross, a 4-5 shot at the off, could finish only fourth of the seven runners, behind an all-the-way Paul Nicholls top-weight winner, Get The Appeal. Like Gallahers Cross, Get The Appeal is a son of Getaway.

As someone who set up a multiple bet many years ago which foundered at the final leg of four (when a future – two runs later! – Group 1 winner ridden by a multiple champion jockey finished unplaced), I can sympathise with those who thought their big pay day had come. On the other hand, any one of them whom I happen to know who didn’t bother to let me in on it – serves you right! But then, as with our try all those years ago that involved physically covering 300 betting shops, rather than pushing a few buttons on computers, two out of three isn’t bad.

Finally, it just remains to question how can any horse beat Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle after Saturday’s romp in the Irish Champion, a victory far more emphatic than last year’s? Tough, with plenty of stamina and unbeaten in one point-to-point and ten runs under Rules, surely the Henry De Bromhead mare can give Rachael Blackmore the distinction of being the first woman to win the Champion Hurdle. Sorry Epatante, unless Nico can contrive to make this a speed rather than a stamina test, her crown definitely looks to rest precariously on her head.

As Liverpool FC are finding, it’s one thing to win a championship, quite another successfully to defend it.

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 York : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Equidae @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...

So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...

...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...

... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...

...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...

...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!