Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.50 Ffos Las : Royal Residence @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, effort over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

River Icon @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Soft/Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare comes here off the back of a win at Perth last time out, 24 days ago and is a former course and distance winner, having won this very race back in 2017.

Her trainer Iain Jardine is 4 from 15 over the last fortnight, which is useful and since the start of 2017 in UK handicap hurdle contests, his runners sent off at 6/4 to 10/1 after winning another hcp hurdle LTO are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.4pts (+237.9% ROI), including...

  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.865pts (+197%) at Class 4
  • 3/4 (75%) for 20.3pts (+507.5%) from females
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.82pts (+127.3%) from 7 yr olds

Moreover, Iain's handicap hurdlers priced at 7/4 to 12/1 on Good to Soft/Soft ground are 13/66 (19.7% SR) for 27.1pts (+41.1% ROI) since 2015, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 12/55 (21.8%) for 34.64pts (+63%) from 4-7 yr olds
  • 12/54 (22.2%) for 26.26pts (+48.6%) at 25-140 miles from home
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 46.55pts (+116.4%) at 11-60 dslr
  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 11.66pts (+29.9%) at Class 4
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 42.37pts (+141.2%) at 2m1f to 2m6f
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.05pts (+62.3%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 28.67pts (+106.2%) from females
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 31.46pts (+174.8%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 27.5pts (+183.3%) in female only races
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 3.95pts (+65.8%) from previous C&D winners..

...whilst 4-7 yr olds racing on tracks 25-140 miles from home, 11-60 days after their last run are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 40.82pts at an ROI of 123.7%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on River Icon @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Coral at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2019

Monday's Pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Arrowzone @ 4/1 BOG 11th at 7/1 (Raced keenly towards rear, never on terms)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flood Defence 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Well, when I'm on a bit of a losing run right now, it might seem strange to plump for a 5 yr old mare who hasn't won any of her last 12 races over the past 16 months since landing a Class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Sandown off a mark of 66.

In her defence, she has run well here over course and distance lately, finishing third on each of her last two visits, both at Class 5. She's down at Class 6 today, off a mark of 61, so a win wouldn't actually be a massive surprise.

Trainer Iain Jardine's yard is in good nick right now and in their last 6 days of racing (spread over the last fortnight), his horses have won 5 of 13 (38.5% SR) for 9.86pts (+75.9% ROI)

Our jockey today is Adam Kirby, who is 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 5pts (+12.2% ROI) on horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter over the last three weeks, including 4 winners from 10 (40%) for 4.33pts (+43.3%) on tapeta.

The tapeta form is no surprise either, as since 2015, he has 122 winners from 562 (21.7% SR) rides here at Wolverhampton in Class 5/6 contests over trips of 8.5 to 14 furlongs, resulting in profits of 85.8pts at a healthy ROI of 36.4%.

And before I wrap this up, I want to touch back on the horse's losing run and falling rating, because it's handy to know that in Flat/AW handicaps since the start of 2105, Iain Jardine's horses running off a mark 1 to 9lbs lower than their last win and are on a losing run of up to 15 races have actually gone on to break that run on 18 of 141 (12.8% SR) occasions, generating 90.5pts profit at an ROI of 64.2%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Flood Defence 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Monday evening, but if you can, do take the 4/1 BOG from Bet365 as I've done! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.30 Uttoxeter : Classic Jewel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 : Mid-division, close up 5th, chased leader 3 out, soon ridden, lost place between last 2, no impression with front pair before last, just held on for 3rd...

Friday's selection goes in the...

4.55 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restive @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 3yo+ Lady amateur riders' handicap over 1m2f on Good ground...

...and a 4 year old gelding trained by Iain Jardine, whose form at the end of the Flat season is generally something to keep an eye on as 2015-17 / Flat handicaps / August - October = 36/220 (16.4% SR) for 109.6pts at an ROI of 49.8%, including...

  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 34/174 (19.5%) for 138.7pts (+79.7%)
  • on Good ground : 13/64 (20.3%) for 88.3pts (+138%)
  • 4 yr olds are 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • LTO runners-up are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.4pts (+175.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/16 (18.75%) for 4.55pts (+28.4%)

Now in this type of race, jockey booking plays a big part in how the races unfold, but thankfully in Serena Brotherton, we have the UK's best Lady Amateur rider, one who is actually profitable to follow blindly!

Since the start of 2008, her record stands at 85/465 (18.3% SR) for 138pts (+29.7% ROI), whilst in handicaps, she is 83/454 (18.3%) for 143pts (+31.5%) and with today's contest in mind, those 454 handicap races include...

  • Amateur Riders Only : 75/397 (18.9%) for 104.3pts (+26.3%)
  • on Flat (turf) : 64/354 (18.1%) for 125.6pts (+35.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 39/241 (16.2%) for 47.9pts (+19.9%)
  • Ladies Only races : 44/226 (19.5%) for 124.5pts (+55.1%)
  • Lady Amateur races : 36/175 (20.6%) for 79.8pts (+45.6%)
  • on Good ground : 19/114 (16.7%) for 40.6pts (+35.6%)
  • and over today's 1m2f trip : 16/99 (16.2%) for 47.6pts (+48.1%)

Serena also rides Hannington in the 2nd division of this race (card here) and is worth a second look...

...but our bet is... a 1pt win bet on Restive @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from SkyBet, SunBets & 10Bet at 5.30pm on Thursday. Those able to take 11/2 from Bet365 should do so and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2017

Friday's Result :

8.50 Goodwood : Zambesi Queen @ 11/4 BOG non-runner

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Globetrotter3/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has finished 3131 in his last four outings and has a win and 2 places from 3 efforts over 2m/2m0.5f. So he's clearly in good nick and gets the trip well enough.

He's trained by Iain Jardine, whose non-NH runners are 70/512 (13.7% SR) for 244.1pts (+47.7% ROI) if backed blindly over the last two years, with the following data subsets of relevance today...

  • handicappers are 65/447 (14.5%) for 281.4pts (+63%)
  • males are 46/349 (13.2%) for 254.2pts (+72.9%)
  • at class 5 : 27/176 (15.3%) for 84.7pts (+48.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 21/132 (15.9%) for 75.2pts (+57%)
  • those who last ran 6-10 days earlier are 18/84 (21.4%) for 96.8pts (+115.3%)
  • over trips of 1m5f to 2m0.5f : 21/71 (29.6%) for 112.5pts (+158.5%)
  • LTO winners are 18/61 (29.5%) for 30.2pts (+49.5%)
  • and on Soft ground : 4/22 (18.2%) for 11.7pts (+53.1%)

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Mr Globetrotter3/1 BOG which was offered by Betfred, Totesport and Marathon at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2017

Friday's Result :

2.35 Epsom : Remarkable @ 7/2 BOG last of 12 at 3/1 Dwelt, pushed along early, soon in mid-division on inside, pushed along and outpaced over 2f out, soon beaten, hung left and eased over 1f out.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.55 Hexham...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heart O Annandale @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A comfortable winner by some 8 lengths when last seen 24 days ago, now seeks to become the latest market-favoured NH handicap winner for trainer Iain Jardine.

By that, I'm referring to the fact that Iain has seen 19 winners from 77 NH 'cappers sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price banding and this 24.7% strike rate has yielded 26,2pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of some 34.1% : nice work from blindly backing them!

Of these 77...

  • Class 4 runners are 12/47 (25.5%) for 14.5pts (+30.8%)
  • hurdlers are 13/46 (28.3%) for 24.3pts (+52.8%)
  • Class 4 hurdlers are 8/25 (32%) for 16.3pts (+65.3%)
  • LTO winners are 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.88pts (+153.4%)
  • and Class 4 hurdlers who won LTO are 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.82pts (+294.1%)

Mind you, I'm not surprised about those LTO winner numbers, as overall Iain's LTO winners are 33/117 (28.2% SR) for 64pts (+54.7%), from which NH runners are 13/37 (35.1%) for 45pts (+121.6%).

And of those 37...

  • hurdlers are 8/24 (33.3%) for 25.77pts (+107.4%)
  • those who won by more than 5 lengths LTO are 8/15 (53.3%) for 22.57pts (+150.5%)
  • those last seen 16-25 days earlier are 38.11pts (+346.5%)
  • and at Class 4 : 6/11 (54.5%) for 18.21pts (+165.5%)

...supporting...a 1pt win bet on Heart O Annandale7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 7.30pm on Friday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Bet365 or even better, the 9/2 BOG from Betway, would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Wolverhampton : Nimr @ 2/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, held on well to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding with two wins from his last four starts, who also won last time out 17 days ago at the same course, distance, class and jockey booking as he has today and he'll be looking to build upon a decent A/W record that includes...

  • 3 wins from 9 over a mile, 2 from 4 over course and distance
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces, 2/3 at odds below 3/1 and 1/1 from that LTO run under jockey Callum Rodriguez.

Trained by Iain Jardine, whose handicappers are 65/453 (14.4% SR) for 253.9pts (+56.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, with the following of relevance/interest today...

  • males are 42/303 (13.9%) for 264pts (+87.1%)
  • those last seen 6-25 days ago are 49/290 (16.9%) for 205.7pts (+70.9%)
  • on the A/W : 16/123 (13%) for 57.4pts (+46.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 17/118 (14.4%) for 45.1pts (+38.2%)
  • and LTO winners are 20/63 (31.8%) for 40.1pts (+63.6%)

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2017

Monday's Result :

2.35 Plumpton : Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 Never fluent, mistakes 6th and next, held up well off the pace in rear, gained a place 10th, smooth headway tracking leaders next, 2nd going well before 2 out, upsides and hit 2 out, led between last 2, hit last, driven out to score by almost 3 lengths

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old might well have only won 3 times in his career, but generally races against younger horses, whereas the average age of this contest at just over 9 fits his profile better.

It's also worth taking a quick look at his three previous wins, because...

  • all 3 came here at Ayr (2 on heavy ground, 1 on soft) in Class 4 handicap contests at odds of 6/1 and shorter. All came in the Jan-March period after a break of 10-40 days and when he was ridden by today's jockey Brian Hughes in fields of less than 10 runners!

On top of that is the fact that since the start of 2011, horses competing in heavy ground handicap chases with at least 2 previous heavy ground wins from less than 10 attempts are 115 from 664 (17.3% SR) for 173.7pts (+26.2% ROI) with Class 4 contests supplying 40 winners from 173 (23.1%) for 87pts (+50.3%)

His trainer Iain Jardine doesn't have that many NH runners here, but they are 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 10.37pts (+47.1% ROI) here since the start of 2015.

And the final piece of the puzzle is jockey Brian Hughes, who aside from his 3 wins on Plus Jamais here at Ayr, has 24 wins from 126 (19.1% SR) for 10.2pts (+8.1% ROI) profit at this venue over the last three years, of which...

  • chasers are 13/50 (26%) for 16.5pts (+33%)
  • Class 4 runners are 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.4pts (+87.5%)
  • and Class 4 chasers are 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.6pts (+125.3%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes, Marathon and Sky amongst others at 5.50pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2017

Monday's Result :

5.05 Wolverhampton : Palenville @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Raced prominently just off the leader until the last furlong, when fading tamely to be beaten by almost 4 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.15 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner 7 days ago under today's jockey and come s here aiming to add to the successes his yard has had over the last couple of years, as trainer Iain Jardine's runners are 7/546 (14.3% SR) for 260.7pts (+47.7% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • handicappers are 62/422 (14.7%) for 263.6pts (+62.5%)
  • males are 51/355 (14.4%) for 284pts (+80%)
  • those who last ran 6-25 days ago : 51/316 (16.1%) for 214.5pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 5 : 26/171 (15.2%) for 73.7pts (+43.1%)
  • 1m3f to 2m : 35/149 (23.5%) for 179.8pts (+120.7%)
  • on the A/W : 14/108 (13%) for 56.2pts (+52.1%)
  • LTO winners : 21/65 (32.3%) for 44.5pts (+68.5%)

And if you just backed his non-NH male handicappers running within 25 days of their last outing, you'd have 30 winners from 173 (17.3%) over the two years and profits of 218.3pts at an ROI of 126.2%, including...

  • Class 5 : 12.53 (22.6%) for 94.1pts (+177.5%)
  • over 1m3f to 2m : 13/51 (25.5%) for 118.3pts (+232%)
  • on the A/W : 7/41 (17.1%) for 79.7pts (+194.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 18.3pts (+70.5%)

You could, of course, then continue to combine the above into smaller micros, but I feel it dilutes the sample size down too much to a point where 1 result (good or bad) could badly skew the figures, so I'll leave it there...

...and place...a 1pt win bet on L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available (10 places) at 5.30pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

6.15 Wolverhampton : Commanche @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed 1f out, no extra)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Beau @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

She won here over 6 furlongs last time oput, when seeming to need pretty much every inch of the trip to just get up by a beck late on, which suggests a similar run over this extra yardage should suit her a little better. She's already won three of her four starts here and has won under today's jockey.

She's trained by Iain Jardine, who has been very successful/profitable over the last couple of years and since the start of 2015, 72 of his 493 runners (14.6% SR) have been winners, generating some 264.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 53.6% with the following at play today...

  • handicappers are 58/381 (15.2%) for 290.6pts (+76.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • Class 5 handicappers are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • on the A/W : 10/79 (12.7%) for 69pts (+87.4%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 10/73 (13.7%) for 75pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners are 21/62 (33.9%) for 47.5pts (+76.6%)
  • LTO winners in a handicap are 18/55 (32.7%) for 42.3pts (+76.9%)
  • over 7f : 4/26 (15.4%) for 21.7pts (+83.6%)
  • in Class 5 A/W handicaps : 5/23 (21.7%) for 49pts (+212.8%)
  • and LTO winners now running in Class 5 handicaps are 6/19 (31.6%) for 4.92pts (+25.9%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Beau at 3/1 BOG , which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday but I've gone with Bet365, as I tend to. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 28th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

6.15 Wolverhampton : Commanche @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed 1f out, no extra)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Beau @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

She won here over 6 furlongs last time oput, when seeming to need pretty much every inch of the trip to just get up by a beck late on, which suggests a similar run over this extra yardage should suit her a little better. She's already won three of her four starts here and has won under today's jockey.

She's trained by Iain Jardine, who has been very successful/profitable over the last couple of years and since the start of 2015, 72 of his 493 runners (14.6% SR) have been winners, generating some 264.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 53.6% with the following at play today...

  • handicappers are 58/381 (15.2%) for 290.6pts (+76.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • Class 5 handicappers are 24/154 (15.6%) for 82.7pts (+53.7%)
  • on the A/W : 10/79 (12.7%) for 69pts (+87.4%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 10/73 (13.7%) for 75pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners are 21/62 (33.9%) for 47.5pts (+76.6%)
  • LTO winners in a handicap are 18/55 (32.7%) for 42.3pts (+76.9%)
  • over 7f : 4/26 (15.4%) for 21.7pts (+83.6%)
  • in Class 5 A/W handicaps : 5/23 (21.7%) for 49pts (+212.8%)
  • and LTO winners now running in Class 5 handicaps are 6/19 (31.6%) for 4.92pts (+25.9%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Beau at 3/1 BOG , which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday but I've gone with Bet365, as I tend to. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2015

I mentioned in Monday's piece that Frankie Dettori was in fine form and that he had a good record at Windsor. Well, he came away with three winners and two runners-up from six rides for another successful day for himself and his Windsor followers.

Unfortunately for SotD, Etienne Gerard was one of the runners-up, despite a strong finish to the race. He seemed lethargic mid-race and Frankie was working hard from a long way out and by the time he finally got the horse motoring it was a touch too late and we slipped to a half length defeat at 9/4, quite a bit shorter than our advised 7/2.

If only it had been a 6.5f race, etc etc! Anyway, none of the ifs, buts and maybes, let's crack on with Tuesday's pick, which runs in the...

6.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles on good to firm ground, where I've just taken 5/1 BOG from Coral about Iain Jardine's 8yr old mare, Push Me.

Since the start of 2012, Iain Jardine's NH handicappers are 8 from 60 (13.3% SR) for decent level stakes profits of 26.7pts at an ROI of 44.5% and if we focus on the horses priced in the 9/4 to 10/1 range, we end up with 7 winners from 30 (23.3% SR) and 26.2pts (+87.5% ROI). And the yard is in good nick, too, with 4 winners and 4 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight.

Push Me was placed third last time out, when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Sedgefield just five days ago and is quickly turned out in a bid to improve upon that result and this sudden reappearance is of interest to me, as it flags the horse up on a couple of microsystems I follow...

  1. Handicap hurdlers running at trips of 2m to 2m 1.5f who ran in a handicap contest 4 or 5 days ago are 64/271 (23.6% SR) for 247.2pts (+91.2% ROI) since 2009, provided they'd had at least one other run in the previous two months.
  2. 8/9 year old hcp hurdlers priced at 11/4 to 7/1 who are running within 7 days of their last run and have ran at least one other race in the previous three months are 86/373 (23.1% SR) for 142.2pts (+38.2% ROI) since the start of 2008 with this particular strategy showing a profit every year.

And whilst that might seem a little short and sweet, that's my reasoning behind my selection of Push Me.As I said earlier, I've taken 5/1 BOG from Coral, but to see the state of the whole market once it unfolds...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.