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Noble Truth promises plenty for the future in Newmarket success

Charlie Appleby has some big-race targets in mind for Noble Truth after he got off the mark with an impressive display at Newmarket.

A promising third behind Thursday’s July Stakes winner Lusail on his racecourse debut three weeks ago, the Kingman colt was the 5-2 favourite to open his account in the in the Weatherbys Bloodstock Pro British EBF Maiden.

Having travelled smoothly in midfield for much of the seven-furlong contest, James Doyle’s mount picked up smartly in the closing stage to score by two lengths from Ehraz.

Appleby said: “That performance from Lusail yesterday gave us more confidence coming here today, not that we needed too much as we’d sort of seen it at home anyway.

“On his first run he was a bit free. He was a lot better today and travelled very well throughout the race – and when he hit the rising ground, he hit the line strong.

“We haven’t got any immediate plans with him as he has been quite head-strong, so we’re taking it race by race and just seeing which way he’s going to go.

“I think the Vintage (at Goodwood) will probably come too soon for him, but we could work back from something like the Champagne Stakes (at Doncaster). That gives him a bit of time to do all the right things, hopefully.

“I think he’ll step up to a mile in time – whether he’ll be a Vertem Futurity Trophy type horse, we’ll see.

“He’s a nice, scopey horse who hopefully has a nice future as a three-year-old.”

Dubai Honour (centre front) battles his way to a narrow victory
Dubai Honour (centre front) battles his way to a narrow victory (Tim Goode/PA)

Doyle completed a quickfire double in the following bet365 Handicap, with the William Haggas-trained Dubai Honour coming out on top in a thrilling finish.

Fourth in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, the 11-2 chance stepped up to beat Foxes Tales by a head.

“I’m thrilled. I thought it might be a bit quick after Ascot – 22 days after what was his first run of the year. He won the Britannia on his side, so he’s clearly not a bad horse,” said Haggas.

“I would like to give a mention to Laura Collett, who is going to represent us (Britain) in the Olympics. She took this horse on for about two months in the winter because we’d lost him mentally and brought him back a different horse, so I want to thank her publicly.

“That (Glorious Goodwood) looks obvious, but we’ll see.”

Live Your Dream led home a Godolphin one-two in the £75,000 bet365 Trophy.

Appleby’s Global Storm battled his way to the lead late on, but was was unable to resist the late surge of the Saeed bin Suroor-trained 7-2 favourite Live Your Dream, who came from last to first under champion jockey Oisin Murphy.

Bin Suroor said: “He has always been good. He was weak last year, but this year he has improved physically and with the trip.

“There are two races for him – maybe we’ll take him to Newbury for the Geoffrey Freer, or maybe the Ebor (at York). It is between those two races.

“He’ll be a nice one for the future in staying races and he can handle any ground.”

La Maquina (centre) and Oisin Murphy on their way to victory
La Maquina (centre) and Oisin Murphy on their way to victory (Tim Goode/PA)

Murphy doubled up aboard George Baker’s La Maquina in the Cash Out At bet365 Handicap, with the 6-1 shot edging out 4-1 favourite Aquaman by a short head.

“We could go to Bahrain. He was bouncing off this quick ground, so he could easily be one for over there, particularly this new 85-100 series,” said Baker.

“We’ll probably go to Goodwood next and then possibly Bahrain. We’ve put a few of our eggs into the basket over there and I’m excited by it.”

Twilight Calls justified 5-2 favouritism in the concluding Moet & Chandon Handicap, with his rider David Probert also enjoying a second winner on the card following the earlier success of Sandrine in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.

Twilight Calls (centre) struck for Henry Candy and David Probert
Twilight Calls (centre) struck for Henry Candy and David Probert (David Davies/Jockey Club)

Winning trainer Henry Candy said: “I was being a bit obstinate by not dropping back to five furlongs, but I had to accept the inevitable in the end.

“He’s got so much speed – he’s a lovely horse who is very, very quick and is the spitting image of his dad (Twilight Son).

“I haven’t thought about where we’ll go from here. We’ll stick in handicaps for the moment, but hopefully with a bit more time on his back he might be able to go a bit higher.”

My Oberon is impressive in Earl Of Sefton

My Oberon made an impressive winning start to his campaign in the bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket.

The William Haggas-trained colt shaped with considerable promise as a three-year-old last season, with victory at York followed by successive runner-up finishes at this Group Three level in the Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood and the Superior Mile at Haydock.

Making his first appearance since finishing fifth in Listed company at Redcar in October, My Oberon was a 7-1 shot against just three rivals on the Rowley Mile – and looks set for a profitable campaign, judged on a clear-cut success.

Always travelling strongly in the hands of James Doyle, the Dubawi colt quickened up smartly to reel in the pace-setting Marie’s Diamond before pulling two and a half lengths clear.

Global Giant, the 10-11 favourite to provide Frankie Dettori with a comeback winner on his first ride in Britain this year, finished last of the quartet.

Haggas said of the winner: “We always hoped he’d be a nice horse. He’s out of a nice Group-winning mare – and being by Dubawi, they get better with age.

“That was a good start. He ran well against Top Rank last season – and he’d won well with a penalty at Doncaster.

Bookmakers Paddy Power responded by shortening My Oberon to 6-1 from 20-1 for the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes – and Haggas confirmed next month’s Group One is the target.

“I think we’ll go to the Lockinge now – that looks very likely,” he said.

“There doesn’t appear to be a stand-out miler this season.

“I’m quite keen at some stage this season to get him up to 10 furlongs, but I want to run him in a Group One now and try and make him a stallion – so the Lockinge is the obvious one.

“I think he handles soft ground, and obviously Dubawis go on it.

“I haven’t watched a replay yet, so I don’t know if it was the front two getting at it too far out and us picking up the pieces or whether we quickened all the way home. Either way, it was a nice start.”

Highland Avenue stars for Charlie Appleby in Feilden Stakes

Highland Avenue led home a one-two for trainer Charlie Appleby in the bet365 Feilden Stakes at Newmarket.

The Moulton Paddocks maestro fired a formidable twin assault at the Listed contest, with William Buick riding Meydan winner Secret Protector and James Doyle aboard Highland Avenue, who was making his turf debut following successive all-weather wins at Kempton.

The pair could not be split in the market, with both horses a 9-2 chance, but Highland Avenue was ultimately an emphatic winner.

Always travelling strongly, the grey quickened up to grab the lead inside the final furlong and had plenty in the tank as he passed the post with just over a length in hand over his stablemate.

Secret Protector pulled six lengths clear of the remainder, headed by 2-1 favourite Royal Champion.

Appleby said of his winner: “He is doing everything the right way, in a fashion that we are not trying to achieve too much too soon with him. He is very much a horse that might not jump straight into the deep end just yet.

“He is mentally improving with each run. Physically, he is a big horse. With each run he is tightening up and skeletally is strengthening up well.

Highland Avenue leads the Feilden field
Highland Avenue leads the Feilden field (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

“James was very pleased with the way he travelled. He said he picked up quickly and well in what looked like, and I felt, was a nice field.

“The second horse has added substance to it. It was a hard choice for William (Buick), but he had ridden Secret Protector and not this one, so he stuck with him. He is a horse that is probably crying out for a bit further.”

Highland Avenue holds entries in the Qipco 2000 Guineas and the Irish Derby, but Appleby is keen to take a patient approach.

He added: “He is well entered up, but we are in no rush with him. If anything, we would be coming back in trip with him. As this horse mentally sharpens up, he will get physically sharper and he will get quicker.

“I think you are more likely to see him at a mile than over 10 furlongs.

“At this moment I think a Guineas might be too much. I don’t want to lose this horse just by rolling the dice with him as he has got an engine.”

Ranch Hand swoops to claim Marathon title at Lingfield

Ranch Hand showed a neat turn of foot in the straight to land the Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield.

James Doyle produced Andrew Balding’s five-year-old with a well-timed run to lead just over a furlong out.

Ranch Hand quickly put the race to bed and he galloped on strongly to hold the late challenge of Rock Eagle by a length and a half, with Lucky Deal third.

There was a strong pace early on with Australis, Ranch Hand and Amtiyaz to the fore, but the tempo slackened before the field passed the winning post for the first time.

Martin Harley was the first to make his move, sending Rainbow Dreamer on four furlongs out, but the 3-1 favourite could not hold on as his rivals hunted him down in the straight. He eventually finished fourth – and Harley later received a four-day suspension for careless riding, covering April 16, 17, 19 and 20.

Balding said: “I thought James always had him in the right position but that he might get caught flat-footed off the very slow pace, but he’s a classy horse and got out of trouble.

“He’s now four from four on the all-weather – and while I was worried whether he would act round Lingfield, I shouldn’t have been.

“This was very much Plan B, because we ran out of jumping options, and I think we’ll stick to the Flat now. The most likely target is the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot.”

Doyle added: “It was a messy race that lacked pace, making it very frustrating because I jumped soundly, but Hollie (Doyle, on Amtiyaz) took my position.

“The good thing was that when the race opened up he was fine. His run in a Listed race at Newmarket was pretty solid, and I knew he had the form coming into this.”

Pholas mowed down the opposition in the closing stages to cause a 25-1 upset for Hollie Doyle in the Ladbrokes All-Weather Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes.

George Boughey’s four-year-old came from last to first thanks to a devastating turn of foot in the hands of his record-breaking jockey.

Five-time course winner Fizzy Feet made the running from Arafi and Nirodha, but the pace was only steady – and all six were in with a chance as they turned for home.

It was Pholas, running for the ninth time this year already, who held all the answers – charging late to get home by a neck from Shimmering Dawn, with Arafi third.

Hollie Doyle sprang a 25-1 surprise on Pholas
Hollie Doyle sprang a 25-1 surprise on Pholas (Mike Egerton/PA)

The disappointing horse in the race was the 4-5 favourite, Indie Angel, who could not get in a blow.

Doyle said: “I thought she was a well-handicapped horse, but that it was a big ask for her in a conditions race.

“To win she needed to do things smoothly and get into a rhythm, with a pace to aim at. She hit a flat spot two out, but picked up really well.”

Diligent Harry looked a smart sprinter in the making when storming to victory in the Ladbrokes 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes.

Diligent Harry (green/red) impressed at Lingfield
Diligent Harry (green/red) impressed at Lingfield (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

The Clive Cox-trained colt came with a pulsating run to wear down Mighty Gurkha in the final furlong and win in cosy fashion.

Adam Kirby, who was on a high after taking the Sprint Championships on Summerghand, had Diligent Harry in a good position just off the pace.

Bravado led in the early stages, but Hollie Doyle soon took it up on Mighty Gurkha after getting across to the rail from a wide draw.

Mighty Gurkha led into the straight, but Diligent Harry (2-1 favourite) had him in his sights and kicked away to score by two lengths. Mighty Gurkha held Zamaani by a nose for second spot.

Diligent Harry was cut to 16-1 from 25-1 for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot with Betfair and Paddy Power.

Cox said: “I’m over the moon, because having not run since January it was a big ask. He was beaten here last time, but on the positive side he gained knowledge of the track, and he’s shown today that when it all goes right it’s fabulous.

“He’s as exciting as a few of the good sprinters we’ve had, but as he’s done a lot in a short time, I shall give him a recharge now.”

Kirby said: “On his previous run here we got bumped out on the turn. It’s been a learning curve for the horse and a lot has happened in three and a half months.

“He’s still a bit babyish, but has taken a step forward. It’s a long way to Ascot, but I’m looking forward to the future.”

The closing Bombardier All-Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap went to Lord Of The Lodge (5-1 joint-favourite) for trainer Karl Burke and jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin.

Aidan O’Brien runners in Fillies’ Mile mix-up

Confusion reigned at Newmarket on Friday after Aidan O’Brien’s Snowfall was named as the third-placed finisher in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile, when it was in fact her stable companion Mother Earth.

A field of 10 runners went to post for the Group One feature on the Rowley Mile, with victory going to 5-2 favourite Pretty Gorgeous, trained by Aidan’s son, Joseph O’Brien, by half a length from the John Gosden-trained Indigo Girl.

It was thought 50-1 shot Snowfall had finished a further half-length away in third in the hands of James Doyle, with Mother Earth eighth of the 10 runners under William Buick.

However, it subsequently became evident the horse that had passed the post in third was in fact 18-1 chance Mother Earth, the darker of the two fillies, with the lighter Snowfall back in the field.

While Doyle was correctly sporting the pink cap and the number nine saddle cloth assigned to Snowfall, he was in fact riding Mother Earth.

O’Brien admitted his on-course staff had mixed up the two fillies.

He told the PA news agency from his Ballydoyle base: “I didn’t see the race, I just listened to it. Someone brought it to my attention then afterwards – that someone had tweeted that they were the wrong fillies.

“I went straight away to look at the race and the minute I saw them coming out of the stalls I knew that they were the wrong fillies.

“Obviously I rang the BHA (British Horseracing Authority) straight away and said it to them.

“What happened was that our lads put the wrong saddles on the wrong fillies.”

The BHA will hold an enquiry before racing at Newmarket on Saturday.

A BHA spokesperson said: “The stewards have been made aware of a potential issue regarding the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket today which have resulted in the incorrect rider and number cloths being carried by the two horses trained by Aidan O’Brien.

“A stewards enquiry will be held on the racecourse tomorrow to consider all of the relevant evidence and determine the course of events and what action needs to be taken.”

Journey aiming to get back on winning path at Newbury

James Doyle remains optimistic Glorious Journey can make the most of a drop in class by returning to winning ways in the Dubai Duty Free Cup at Newbury.

The gelded son of Dubawi, one of two runners in the seven-furlong Listed prize for trainer Charlie Appleby alongside D’bai, has been out of luck since landing a Group Two at Meydan on his return in January.

Having beaten only two home in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood on his penultimate start, Glorious Journey was well held last time in his attempt to claim back-to-back wins in the Hungerford Stakes over course and distance.

Doyle said: “His last two runs have been a bit questionable. It was a funny race in the Hungerford as Breathtaking Look and Dream Of Dreams scooted up the far rail and we never really got into it.

“He definitely needs to put a couple of below-par runs behind him. The team at home are happy with him, so hopefully he can go well, but he does need to bounce back.

“Conditions should be perfect for him as we know he likes the track having won the Group Two there last year.

“Hopefully the ground won’t dry out too much as he does like to get his toe in, but good ground should be fine.”

Jash is set for Royal Ascot after a winning return at Newmarket
Jash will return to seven furlongs in a bid to get his career back on track (Simon Cooper/PA)

The step back up to seven furlongs is expected to suit the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained Jash, who will be looking to score for the first time since winning a Listed event over the same trip at Newmarket last May.

Ed Crisford said: “His first run back on the all-weather didn’t really suit him, but he finished behind Glen Shiel and the form of that race has worked out well, while the ground at York last time was probably too soft for him.

“He has got a long way to go to reach the form he had as a two-year-old, but we think stepping back up to seven furlongs should suit him and the ground should suit him, so I’m sure he will run a nice race.

“There is definitely still something there as he has been training really well at home, but I think we will find out a lot more about where we stand with him after this.”

Andrew Balding believes Jersey Stakes third Symbolize can make his presence felt if producing a repeat effort of his latest second in a conditions event at Haydock.

Balding said: “He has been consistent at a good level all year and is very versatile ground wise.

“He seems in good form and I’m hoping he will run well again, but it looks a tough race.

“He was beaten by a good horse (last time), but he only just lost out at the finish and I was delighted with the performance.”

Rossa Ryan is confident Baradar will have no problems tackling a mile for the first time as he puts his unbeaten record on the line in the 40 Year Anniversary Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes.

The Roger Varian-trained Muhaarar colt made the perfect start to his career with victory over seven furlongs at the track last month.

Ryan said: “I thought it was a good debut run. He was green and he got a bit lost between the three and the two, but I really liked his attitude. He switched on in the last furlong and sprinted away and I had trouble pulling him up.

“He has come out of the race very well. He is less exposed than the rest of the field as he has only had one run and there is plenty of improvement there. He has the pedigree to be a very nice horse.

“I think a mile will suit him well. He has done everything right so far and his work has been very good since his first run.”

Knight Salute will bid to give Classic-winning handler Balding his first victory in the conditions prize which includes 1981 Derby hero Shergar and multiple Group One winners Rainbow Quest and Nayef on its roll of honour.

Balding said: “He was very disappointing at Salisbury and we expected much better from him. The ground could have been a possibility as to why he didn’t run well, but we are on a fact-finding mission.

“He won well enough at Sandown the time before and hopefully he can run like he did that day. At this moment in time, I think a mile is his trip.”

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

7.45 Hamilton : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Led to post and taken down early, tracked leaders, effort when not clear run 2f out, switched left over 1f out, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,881 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is often the case, with the racecard...

Jockey James Doyle is in excellent form right now, as seen above and also has a 50% strike rate here at Wolverhampton (18 from 36) since the start of 2018, including 5 wins from 8 over this 7f course and distance.

He comes here for the first time since the 7th December to ride a 4 yr old gelding who was only beaten by a head last time out at Chelmsford when finishing strongly over 6f, so the extra distance allied to James' talents might just make all the difference today for a horse that already has a win and a place from his two previous efforts on this track and is three from ten at Class 5.

More generally, since 2015, Roger Teal's handicappers returning within two weeks of a top three finish where they either won or were beaten by two lengths or less are 11 from 41 (26.8% SR) for 52.92pts (+129.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 63.92pts (+213.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 45.29pts (+188.7%) in the second half of the year
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 49.03pts (+213.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 37.62pts (+179.2%) were beaten by a head to two lengths
  • 6/20 (30%) for 27.62pts (+138.1%) over trips of a mile or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.42pts (+395.5%) stepping up in trip by 1-2 furlongs
  • and 5 from 17 (29.4%) for 33.04pts (+194.4%) at Class 5...

...whilst in 6-11 runner contests worth less than £4k in the second half of the year, they are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 35.4pts (+295% ROI) at an A/E of some 2.98...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG or bigger in places as was available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Ascot : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3 (Raced keenly towards rear, bit closer in mid-division on inside halfway, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on late, never going pace to get involved) - We smashed the SP, but never got a run for our money. I rarely criticise jockeys, but I thought this was a poor ride.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power of States @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2½f on Good ground worth £7,763 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was fourth last time out at Ascot 16 days ago and now takes a drop in both class and trip to run here, whilst the winner of that Ascot race stepped up a class to beat our pick on Saturday.

The drop in class was what caught my eye here, as I'm always interested in Hugo Palmer's handicappers dropping down a level, as those sent off at 14/1 or shorter since the start of 2017 are 27 from 117 (23.1% SR) for 64.25pts at a decent ROI of 54.92%.

And that's if you backed all of them! We don't, generally, so what filters can we apply to make our betting more efficient? Well, of those 117 class droppers, there are...

  • 24/89 (27%) for 82.8pts (93.1%) in fields of 8-15 runners
  • 23/90 (25.6%) for 53.6pts (+59.6%) from male runners
  • 22/96 (22.9%) for 66.7pts (+69.4%) with runners unplaced LTO
  • 15/66 (22.7%) for 47.2pts (+71.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/62 (24.2%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) at 11-25 days since their last run
  • 7/20 (35%) for 24.2pts (+121%) dropping down in trip by 1 to 2½f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 16.7pts (+79.7%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m2½f
  • and 6/21 (28.6%) for 18.4pts (+87.8%) with James Doyle in the saddle....

...whilst males who failed to make the frame LTO are 16 from 58 (27.6% SR) for 59.4pts (+102.4% ROI) in fields of 8-15 runners, providing us with over 92% of our original profit from less than 50% of the bets.

This horse is also Hugo's only runner at the meeting tonight, which is also of interest, as since the start of 2016, his record at Evens to 9/1 with solo entrants stands at 71/279 (25.5% SR) for 95pts (+34.1% ROI) in handicaps, including of relevance this evening...

  • 63/224 (28.1%) for 111.8pts (+49.9%) with those off the track for more than 15 days
  • 39/149 (26.2%) for 81.8pts (+54.9%) from those unplaced LTO

...whilst those racing after a 15+ day absence since an unplaced finish LTO are 33 from 123 (26.8%) for 77.4pts (+62.9%), including 10 from 33 (30.3%) for 25.4pts (+76.8%) from those dropping down a class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Power of States @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.00 am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Chester

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!