Tag Archive for: jockey profiles

Jockey Profiles: Blackmore, Kennedy, Townend

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This is the third article in a series looking at the performance of some of the top National Hunt jockeys. Parts 1 and 2 can be read here and here. For this piece I will be heading over the water to examine the stats of three of the top Irish jockeys - Paul Townend, Jack Kennedy and Rachael Blackmore.

I have analysed NH data for racing from 1st Jan 2016 to 31st Oct 2023 with the primary focus being their respective records in Ireland. However, at the end of each jockey’s section I have shared a selection of their UK stats.

As with the first two articles the Geegeez Query Tool has been my ‘go to’ for data collection, and I have sourced further insights from the Geegeez Profiler to help with certain parts. Profits and losses have been calculated to Industry SP, but I quote Betfair SP where appropriate. All tables include A/E indices, and when any data has been pulled from the Geegeez Profiler Tool, I also share the PRB figures (Percentage of Rivals Beaten).

Let’s start with Paul Townend.

Paul Townend Overall Record

Below is Paul Townend’s Irish record across all runners during the study period:

 

 

A strike rate of better than one in four is comfortably the best we have seen so far in this series. The PRB of 0.66 is very high and the A/E index of 0.93 is comfortably above the average figure for all jockeys which stands at 0.87. Losses of nearly 16p in the £ to SP are a note of caution, however; to BSP this loss is reduced to just under 3p in the £.

Of course, Townend's overall win rate is so good because he rides primarily for the behemoth Willie Mullins yard – just over 65% of his total Irish rides have been for Mullins during this time frame. Below is his record with Mullins compared to all other trainers combined:

 

 

As we can see it is a staggering 34.2% strike rate when riding for Mullins in Ireland compared with 12.1% for all other trainers.

Paul Townend Record by Year

Yearly stats are my next port of call. Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

This graph is unlike any graph we have seen to date in this series. However, this is because in 2016 and 2017 Townend rode 239 times for Mullins but 534 times for other trainers. Since 2018 he has ridden 1443 times for Mullins and only 356 times for other trainers. Indeed, in 2022 and 2023 he has had 488 rides in total of which 475 have been for Mullins: just 13 for other trainers. As we have already seen, more rides for Mullins means better strike rates.

Paul Townend Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

A look next at his results by splitting them into different price bands:

 

 

The prices to concentrate on seem to be the shorter priced ones. Townend has almost broken even to SP with horses priced 13/8 or shorter. To BSP these runners would have made a small £21.10 profit (ROI +2.8%). Horses at the other end of the scale (16/1 or bigger) should be avoided if these past results are anything to go by.

Paul Townend Record by Race type

It is time to see if Townend’s record is better in chase or hurdle races:

 

 

He has ridden in far more hurdle races than chases, but his chase record looks slightly superior. When riding a clear favourite in a chase he has secured a strike rate of 54.3% (182 wins from 335) for an SP profit of £31.25 (ROI +9.3%). To BSP this increases a little to +£47.17 (ROI +14.1%).

Paul Townend Record by Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Townend has had at least 100 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

His strike rate at Navan is modest by Townend's own standards but, thanks to a few double figure priced winners, he has edged into profit there. At Galway his stats are relatively poor, but Galway does stage highly competitive racing which could at least partially explain the figures. In contrast, the Tramore data are exceptional, hitting close to 40% of winners and showing excellent profits and a huge PRB figure of 0.75. For the record, in 2020 he won 8 of his 12 rides at the track and in 2022 won 8 out of 10.

Paul Townend Record by Run style

Time to look at an area that is still undervalued by some punters namely run style. Here is a breakdown of Paul Townend's run style performance in terms of win strike rate across ALL races:

 

 

This breakdown shows one of the strongest front running biases I have seen. A strike rate of 44% is mind-blowing. If you had been able to predict pre-race which of his horses went into an early lead you would have secured an SP profit of £40.60 (ROI +7.6%). Contrast that with the returns on all hold up horses, which would have produced significant losses of £197.00 (ROI -30.3%).

Let me also share his run style record when riding the favourite:

 

 

Front running favourites have produced outstanding results with prominent-racing favourites outperforming the other two groups.

Paul Townend UK data

Before moving on to our next jockey, let me take a quick look at Townend’s record in the UK. Overall, he has had 221 rides of which 38 have been successful meaning his strike rate has been 17.2%. (179 of his 221 rides have been for Mullins). His strike rate is lower here compared to Ireland as two thirds of his rides have come at Cheltenham with the majority of those being at the Festival. His Cheltenham strike rate is exactly 17% and you would have made a 10.7% profit if backing all his rides at the track. He is a rare visitor to tracks away from Aintree and Cheltenham, but at Perth he is 4 from 9 (SR 44.4%) for a profit of £5.50 (ROI +61.1%).

Possibly the most interesting UK stats are related to market position. Backing Townend on favourites would have lost you nearly 22p in the £; backing him on second favourites this worsens to losses of over 64p in the £. However, if backing runners from outside the top two in the betting you would have made an SP profit of £49.00 (ROI +41.5%).

 

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Jack Kennedy Overall Record

Jack Kennedy’s record across all Irish races is as follows:

 

Kennedy is close to hitting 17% in terms of win rate, with a slightly above average A/E index and a decent PRB figure. Losses have been around 20p in the £ to SP which is still some way below the average. To Betfair SP you would have turned that loss into a small profit of £112.36 (ROI +4.2%). However, one big-priced Betfair winner (168.49) is responsible for that.

My next port of call is looking at his yearly figures.

Jack Kennedy Record by Year

Below we see the yearly breakdown by strike rate - both win, and win/placed (Each Way):

 

 

In general, we have seen an uptick in the past four years with 2020, 2022 and 2023 seeing win percentages more than 20%. 2021 looks disappointing from a win perspective but the each way figure suggests he was perhaps a little unlucky that year. This was also the year when his main trainer, Gordon Elliott, was suspended for six months, which is surely a contributory factor.

While discussing each way stats they have also been much stronger since the start of 2020.

Jack Kennedy Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

I would like to look at the market now and I am splitting results up by the same Starting Price bands as earlier:

 

 

The shortest price band (Evens or shorter) have actually nudged into a miniscule profit. Horses priced 4/1 or shorter have completely outperformed those 9/2 or bigger when looking at returns and A/E indices. To BSP, horses priced 4/1 or shorter have made a small profit to £1 level stakes of £30.21 (ROI +3.2%). Overall, it looks worth avoiding bigger priced runners ridden by Kennedy.

Jack Kennedy Record by Race type

Under the microscope next comes Jack's record in hurdle races and chases.

 

 

We have a very similar set of figures for both race types. However, it is worth splitting the hurdle stats into handicap versus non-handicaps. In non-handicaps his strike rate has been 21% with SP losses of 11p in the £; in handicaps the strike rate drops to under 10% (9.1%) with losses of 40p in the £. To BSP non-handicaps have made a profit of £214.60 (ROI +18.1%), handicaps have still made a significant loss of £187.96 (ROI -28.1%).

Jack Kennedy Record by Racecourse

It is course data next for Kennedy. As earlier, 100 runs at a track is the cut off point for the table:

 

 

Kennedy has crept into profit at just Down Royal thanks mainly to an excellent strike rate of over 28%. He has a very good record on favourites at this track winning on 20 of the 31 of them. Not only that, of the other 11 he has finished placed on nine. Backing all Kennedy-ridden favourites at Down Royal would have yielded an SP profit of £10.45 (ROI +33.7%). To BSP this nudges up slightly to £11.69 (ROI +37.7%).

Jack Kennedy Record by Trainer

Nearly 80% of his rides have been for Gordon Elliott and their record together is much stronger than when we combine Kennedy with all the other trainers he has ridden for. Here are those splits:

 

 

It is interesting when we revisit the Down Royal stats in terms of trainers. When teaming up with Elliott, Kennedy is 35 from 96 (SR 36.5%), all other trainers have provided just one win from 20.

Jack Kennedy Record by Run Style

Let me look at the run style splits next starting with win percentages:

 

 

His front running record is excellent and if you had been able to predict pre-race which of his horses went into an early lead you would have secured an SP profit of £61.57 (ROI +21.5%). Conversely, backing all hold up horses would have seen huge losses of £314.42 (ROI -51.3%).

Let me also share his run style record when riding the favourite:

 

 

It is the same powerful message that we have seen numerous times before. It is remarkable to think that front-running favourites have been twice as successful as held up favourites in terms of win percentage.

Jack Kennedy UK data

Before moving onto Rachael Blackmore, a quick look at Kennedy's UK stats. He is not a regular visitor and comes primarily for the big two festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree. His overall UK record reads 17 wins from 123 (SR 13.8%) for an SP profit of £45.31 (ROI +38.8%). He has had three winners priced between 20/1 and 25/1 which skew the profit figure somewhat. At Cheltenham he has had 11 wins from 76 (SR 14.5%), while at Aintree he has won 4 races from 25 rides (SR 16%).

 

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Rachael Blackmore Overall Record

Rachael Blackmore burst to prominence in 2021 when she not only won the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham but she also became leading jockey at the Festival, a month before being the first female jockey to win the Grand National, on Minella Times. A year later she repeated her win in the Champion hurdle and followed it up with success in the Gold Cup: it is quite a CV she is building. I will look at her UK stats at the end of this section, but let me start with Irish data and her overall record there:

 

 

Her overall figures look moderate, especially when comparing them to the other jockeys we have looked at to date in this series. However, to BSP losses have been massively reduced to just 3p in the £ rather than 23p. We do need to examine her yearly stats as they will paint a clearer picture.

Rachael Blackmore Record by Year

Below we see her yearly breakdown by strike rate - both win, and win/placed (Each Way):

 

 

As you can see, she started from a very low base in 2016 winning less than 7% of the time. Compare that with the improved record from 2018 which coincides with getting more rides for trainer Henry de Bromhead. 2021 was her best year in terms of both win and each way strike rates.

Rachael Blackmore Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Time to examine different price bands to see if any patterns emerge:

 

 

We see a similar trend here to both Townend and Kennedy, where shorter priced runners have been better value. Horses sent off at evens or shorter have made a profit, albeit only just. Once the prices hit 9/2 or bigger the results are relatively modest.

Rachael Blackmore Record by Race type

It is chases versus hurdles next:

 

 

The returns on investment (ROI) for each group are within 1% of each other. She has a better SR% in chases, but this is more down to field size than anything else (average field size in hurdle races is bigger than in chases).

Rachael Blackmore Record by Racecourse

Splitting Rachael's results up by course next. 100+ rides again to qualify:

 

 

Just one course has seen a strike rate higher than 20% which is Naas, standing at 23.8%. Blackmore has made decent profits there, too, and her A/E index of 1.31 is also excellent. She has had winners at 25/1 and 22/1 at Naas, but she has made a solid profit with shorter priced runners, too. Indeed, focusing on Naas runners from the top two in the betting, you would have been rewarded with 22 winners from 50 (SR 44%) for an SP profit of £16.98 (ROI +34%). Tipperary has edged into profit, and she has a good record on favourites there (13 wins from 28) returning 19p in the £ to SP. Her overall record at Downpatrick has been poor in comparison, although there have been better signs in the past two years with 4 wins from 24 (SR 16.7%).

Rachael Blackmore Record by Trainer

Henry de Bromhead has provided just under half of Blackmore’s rides during the period of study, but that figure is around 70% when we focus in on this year 2023. There are three other trainers that she has had at least 75 rides for and has ridden for them this year - they are also in the table below:

 

 

Her strike rate when teaming up with de Bromhead is good and the partnership would have made a blind profit to BSP, although those profits were accrued over 2018 and 2019. At Naas Blackmore and de Bromhead have combined to win 23 of their 71 starts (SR 32.4%) for a healthy SP profit of £76.04 (ROI +107.1%).

Rachael Blackmore Record by Run Style

The final main Irish section focuses on Blackmore and her run style stats.

 

 

Front runners would have yielded excellent returns of 28p in the £ if you had predicted their run style pre-race. Compare that with losses for both mid-division runners and hold up horses who both would have lost a whopping 46p in the £. Front runners for de Bromhead have won just over 30% of the time when Blackmore has been on board.

Now favourites split by run style:

 

 

As with the ‘all runners’ stats, front-running favourites would have proved profitable while hold up/midfield favourites would have lost 37p and 42p in the £ respectively.

Rachael Blackmore UK data

Earlier I mentioned some of Rachael's successes in the biggest UK races so let us look at her overall record in this country:

 

 

These are very solid figures considering 45% of her UK rides have come at the Cheltenham Festival. Her Festival record is similar to her overall UK record with a 16.1% SR% and positive returns of almost 15p for every £1 staked. However, it should be noted that a Festival winner in 2019 was priced at 50/1 and this skews the overall figures somewhat.

When Blackmore has been on a favourite in the UK her record reads an impressive 11 wins from 25 (SR 44%) for a profit to SP of £10.88 (ROI +43.5%). Indeed, when riding second favourites her record has also been positive – 10 wins from 32 runners (SR 31.3%) for a profit of £8.33 (ROI +26%). At the Cheltenham Festival she is 12 from 26 (SR 46.2%) when combining her rides on horses first or second in the betting for an SP profit of £15.16 (ROI +58.3%).

20 of her 30 winners have come for de Bromhead, while her rare trips to Huntingdon have seen three winners and a second from four rides. Finally, her record in Grade 1 events has been excellent, hitting 20% success rate thanks to 14 winners from 70.

Main Takeaways

Paul Townend (Irish racing)

  1. He has an excellent 34% strike rate for Willie Mullins.
  2. Horses priced 13/8 or shorter have provided the best value.
  3. Townend has a strong record when riding a favourite in a chase.
  4. He has a good record at Tramore but has struggled a little at Galway.
  5. Townend has an exceptional 44%-win rate on front runners.

Paul Townend (UK racing)

  1. Runners outside the top two in the betting have provided by far the best value.
  2. He is a rare visitor to Perth, but he has a good record from his handful of rides.

Jack Kennedy (Irish racing)

  1. Horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided the best value, especially those priced Evens or shorter.
  2. Kennedy has a good record in non handicap hurdle races. Conversely his record poor in handicap hurdle contests.
  3. Kennedy has a good record at Down Royal on all price bands. This includes favs where his record is very strong.
  4. As with Townend he has very strong record when riding front runners.
  5. His record on favourites that are held up early in a race is poor.

Rachael Blackmore (Irish racing)

  1. Horses priced Evens or shorter has edged into profit. Horses priced 9/2 or bigger have proved to be relatively poor value.
  2. Blackmore has a very good record at Naas, especially when the horse comes from top two of the betting. Also, when riding for De Bromhead her record at Naas has been excellent.
  3. She has done extremely well at Tipperary when riding the favourite.
  4. She is a solid record on front runners both when favourite and when not favourite.
  5. Favourites that race mid division or further back early in the race have a very poor record (when comparing them to all favs).

Rachael Blackmore (UK racing)

  1. Has an excellent record on favourites.
  2. At the Cheltenham festival she has an outstanding record on either favs or second favs.
  3. She has a strike rate of 20% in Grade 1 events which is roughly double the average figure for all jockeys.

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So, there you go! Our trip over the Irish sea is completed. Next time, it’s back to the UK.

- DR

Jockey Profiles: Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis

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This is the third in my series of articles on jockeys, and in this one I am examining the two jockeys who have ridden the most winners at northern or Scottish tracks in the past eight seasons, namely Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis, writes Dave Renham. Between them they have ridden over 7500 horses in this part of the UK, winning 1242 races (Tudhope 687 wins, Curtis 555), and these runners have accounted for about 75% of Tudhope’s total rides in the UK/Ireland and about 64% of Curtis’s. They have both been successful ‘down south’ as well; Tudhope, for example, has ridden four winners on two separate occasions in Royal Ascot festivals – once in 2019 and then again in 2022.

As with the previous two articles I am analysing the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2022). I am using the Profiler Tool along with the Query Tool as the main vehicles for my data gathering. In all the tables profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

Let’s start with Tudhope.

Danny Tudhope Jockey Profile

Danny Tudhope: Overall Record

Let me first review Tudhope’s overall stats by looking at his performance on every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

This is a very presentable set of figures – a win rate of roughly one win in every six and very modest losses of just over 7½ pence in the £ to SP. Indeed, to BSP this would have been converted into a profit of £317.49 (ROI +6.1%), with five of the individual years showing 'in the black' against the machine. Tudhope's A/E index, a ratio that essentially determines value, is above the average for all jockeys, as is his PRB figure.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Year

Yearly stats are the next port of call. Here is a breakdown by both win and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

As can be seen, 2019 was his best year hitting the winners' enclosure on nearly one in five of his rides. Overall, Tudhope's performance has been very consistent both from a win and placed perspective, which is something one always likes to see. This consistency can be viewed even more clearly when we look at his yearly PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) figures:

 

 

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

The Profiler on Geegeez gives a breakdown of performance by Starting Price splitting the market into seven price brackets. Tudhope’s figures are as follows:

 

 

At the shorter prices (9/4 or less) his figures are slightly below what would be expected, certainly in terms of returns. The remaining figures are slightly above what might be expected in terms of returns. His strike rate of 5.16% on horses priced 16/1 to 25/1 is well above the figure for ALL jockeys, which stands at only 3.47%. The same is true when looking at the 9/1 to 14/1 price bracket – Tudhope’s SR% stands at 7.96%, the ALL jockey figure stands at 6.56%. These mid- to bigger-priced horses have definitely offered some value for punters over the past eight seasons, though with single digit hit rates, it can be a long time between drinks!

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Distance

A look at Tudhope’s record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands as with the previous two jockey pieces, and once again it is win strike rates that are being compared:

 

 

Similar strike rates, although the longest distance win percentage is slightly below the others. This might be due to the smaller sample size of 139 races. Tudhope primarily rides in races of 1 mile or less – roughly 75% of all his rides have been over these shorter distances with an even split between 5-6f and 7f-1m. Personally, I am a fan of Tudhope in sprints – he is excellent when on a front runner in these 5-6f races, winning over 30% of the time (92 wins from 300). Backing all these runners would have yielded a profit of £161.01 to SP (ROI +53.7%). Clearly we are never totally sure which horse is going to front run, but if a Tudhope sprinter does go to the front early it is cause for optimism. For the record, his returns on front runners have been virtually identical in handicap sprints and non-handicap sprints.

He also has a winning strike rate of around 27% in 7f-1m races on front runners which is equally as eye-catching, if not more so (N.B. average SR% for ALL jockeys on 7f-1m front runners is 18%).

 

Danny Tudhope: Record By Racecourse

I am now going to look at all courses where Tudhope has had at least 150 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

As expected, the majority of the courses in the table are northern English or Scottish tracks. Overall there is a fair smattering of profitable courses. When looking at market factors and taking out some of the bigger priced winners, four courses stand out, namely Beverley, Musselburgh, Redcar and Ripon. Tudhope riding at any of these should generally be considered to be a positive. At Beverley it is worth noting that restricting Tudhope to horses that were either favourite or second favourite would have yielded 46 winners from 142 rides (SR 32.4%) for an SP profit of £31.63 (ROI +22.3%). To BSP this edges up to +£47.88 (ROI +33.7%).

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Trainer

Time to examine the trainer stats and below are all the trainers (still in business) for whom Tudhope has had at least 100 rides. They are ordered by strike rate.

 

 

Tudhope is David O’Meara’s stable jockey which explains the huge number of rides for the Yorkshire handler. He has a very good strike rate when riding for the William Haggas stable, but a good proportion of these rides have been at short prices. A couple of courses stand out with the Haggas / Tudhope combination: firstly they are 8 from 17 at Redcar, while at Newcastle they have secured 11 wins from just 23 runs.

He has profitable records to SP when riding for Archie Watson and Karl Burke. In fact, when riding for Watson, which he has done between 2017 and 2022, five of those six years produced a profit to BSP.

There are three trainers that should be mentioned, although none made the above table due to not having enough rides to qualify. They are Kevin Ryan, James Bethell and Sir Michael Stoute. Tudhope has a good record with all three both from a strike rate and a returns perspective.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now. I have already shared the fact that Tudhope has an excellent front running record on horses that race between 5f and 1m. Here is a breakdown of his run style performance in terms of percentage of runners that match each one:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those you would find if you averaged out all jockeys in the weighing room. It is a shame he has not led early on more than 15.4% of all horses considering how effective he is from the front. Of course, that style doesn't suit all horses on all occasions.

Tudhope wins more often with front running horses than with prominent racers, which in turn out-perform midfield racers and those held up early. This is the normal pattern we see for virtually all jockeys on the flat.

 

Danny Tudhope: Record by Market Factors

As regular readers will know I am a big fan of looking at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding ‘good horses at the front, bad ones at the back’. Here are the relative win strike rates for Tudhope horses that have started as the market leader in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Front running favourites perform much the best. They secured a profit of around 15p in the £ assuming your crystal ball could have accurately predicted that they would all front run as well as being favourite. Tudhope has won from the front on favourites at all distances so is clearly an excellent judge of pace when leading, regardless of distance.

He is also one of the better jockeys from off the pace, especially in races at beyond a mile. In longer distance races I would not be put off by a Tudhope runner that habitually is held up.

I will summarize Danny Tudhope main takeaways at the end of the article, but now it is time to look at Ben Curtis.

 

Ben Curtis Jockey Profile

Ben Curtis Overall Record

Here are the overall stats for Ben Curtis:

 

 

Curtis has a slightly lower win strike rate than Tudhope, but still highly respectable, around the one win in seven mark. The A/E index of 0.95 is close to ‘value’ and to BSP Curtis would have secured punters a 4p in the £ profit across all his 5796 rides, which is mightily impressive.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Year

Here is a breakdown by both win, and win/placed (Each Way) percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

There has been a clear uptick when comparing 2018-2022 data with that from 2015-2017. This has occurred both from a win and each way perspective. There is a reason for this, as the improvement coincided with getting better rides as a whole from 2018: we can see this when we look at the prices of his runners year by year, especially the shorter end of the market. Here is a graph looking at the percentage of Curtis's rides by year that have been on horses priced 9/2 or shorter.

 

 

As the graph indicates, in 2022 compared with 2015 he rode more than double the number of horses sent off at 9/2 or shorter (in terms of percentage of his rides). Riding shorter priced runners improves the strike rate and that has been the driving force in the more recent past. I have said before that, where possible, we cannot be dependent on just one type of statistic. The more data and info we have at our fingertips the better, especially when it helps us understand why certain stats look the way they do.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

A look now at the Profiler splits in terms of Industry Starting Price:

 

 

The shortest priced runners (odds on) have, amazingly, nudged into SP profit. That is unusual. The 9/1 to 14/1 bracket has also seen him out-perform the average, certainly in terms of strike rate, as we saw with Tudhope earlier. It looks like the very big-priced runners (28/1 or more) are worth avoiding though – just 5 winners from 553 with losses of just over 62 pence for every £1 staked.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Distance

Time to see if there are any clear differences when we look at Ben's record at different distances. Normally these figures are very similar, but it is always worth checking just in case:

 

 

As with Tudhope the very longest distances have the lowest strike rate, but again the sample size is smaller than the other categories – 197 races in the 1m7f+ sample. I would say Curtis has no major strengths or weaknesses when it comes to riding at different distances.

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Racecourse

Let's take a look at ‘Curtis by course’ – as before the courses are listed alphabetically and the minimum number of rides to qualify is 150:

 

 

Seven of the 19 courses have produced a profit to SP, with the Carlisle stats leaping off the page. At Carlisle Curtis has secured comfortably the highest strike rate compared to other courses, likewise the A/E index is the highest of all courses as is the PRB figure. Profits are extremely high, but we need to dig a bit deeper to see how many big-priced winners have affected the bottom line.

The biggest priced winner for Curtis at Carlisle has actually only been 25/1 so that makes these figures even more impressive. Below is the Carlisle breakdown by year, which is always useful to review for consistency:

 

 

Probably two things stand out initially. Firstly the eye is drawn to the poor performance in 2019 and, secondly, the 2015 profit figure accounts for over half of the eight year bottom line. Dealing with the poor 2019 – this is bound to happen when examining course/jockey stats. If you look at the PRB figure for that year it was similar to four of the six other years, so things are not as bad as they look at first glance. Also when delving in more detail into 2019, it emerges that Curtis rode eight horses at the course which finished second including at some reasonable prices – 6/1, 7/1, 8/1. With smaller data samples these ‘poor’ years will happen. Statistical variance, luck, quality of rides will all play a part too.

In terms of 2015 providing more than half the profit, it should be noted that four of the other six seasons made a profit, and decent profits at that. 2022 was a losing year, but his placed strike rate was actually the highest of any of the seasons (59%) so again perhaps not as ‘bad’ a year as the raw stats suggest.

All in all it is clear that Curtis rides Carlisle very well and, for the record, he has won for 24 different trainers at the course, so he is not reliant on a single handler, like so many jockeys are. He has also won for 30 different trainers at Beverley (57 winners).

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Trainer

That leads us nicely onto Curtis's performance for different trainers now. Below are all the trainers (still operating) for whom Curtis has had at least 100 rides. They are ordered by strike rate.

 

* including singular trainer name entities at the same yard

The combination with William Haggas is extremely good, although Curtis has only had nine rides for the stable in the past two seasons. Curtis has produced a profit to SP with horses from the top three in the betting for five of the trainers in the table; namely Haggas, Boughey, Palmer, Ellison and Appleby. He has only started riding for Boughey in the past three seasons but it is worth noting that on horses priced 6/1 or shorter the combo has produced a highly impressive 38 winners from 81 runners (SR 38.8%) for an SP profit of £22.10 (ROI +27.6%). To BSP returns increase to +36%. He has ridden a lot for Karl Burke in the past, but last year saw him have just six rides so it is not a combination that is going to produce many more runners it seems.

Before moving away from trainers, Curtis also has an excellent record when riding for two other trainers – for Charlie Hills he is 13 wins from 44 (SR 29.6%) and for George Scott 16 wins from 59 (SR 27.1%).

 

Ben Curtis: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now, and here is a breakdown of Curtis’s run style in terms of percentage of runners that match each one:

 

 

It is good to see he is above the average figure for ALL jockeys when it comes to front runners and also he is below the average for hold up horses. This to me suggests that he has some appreciation about the value of early track position.

Onto his win record on favourites in terms of run style:

 

 

Curtis has a slightly higher SR% figure on prominent favourites to the norm, but the general pattern is seen once more – there is such a simple answer to the question, ‘Would you prefer to be on a front running favourite or a held up favourite?’

It should also be shared that Curtis's front-running favourites were profitable to SP, as were the prominent racing favourites.

 

Danny Tudhope and Ben Curtis: Main Takeaways

The table below summarises the key takeaways for these two giants of the northern circuit:

 

 

So there you have it – two for the price of one!

I hope this article has uncovered a few more angles that may prove profitable for you to deploy over the coming months.

- DR

Jockey Profiles: Ryan Moore

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The second in my series of articles on jockeys and, this time, Ryan Moore comes under the microscope.

Ryan Moore Introduction

Ryan Moore was born in Brighton in 1983 and he rode his first winner in the year 2000. Three years later, he broke through the 50 winners in a year barrier and, in 2004, he notched up his first century (132). In his early career he rode primarily for Richard Hannon but, by the mid-2000s, Moore was getting an increasing number of rides for Sir Michael Stoute. It was for Sir Michael that he recorded his first Group 1 success with Notnowcato in the Juddmonte Stakes at York in August 2006. In 2011 he started being noticed by Aidan O’Brien and, by 2016, he had ridden over 100 times in a season for the Irish maestro in the UK and Ireland combined. The Coolmore Stud provided the vast majority of these rides from the Ballydoyle handler, giving Moore the opportunity to ride some of the very top horses in training. In 2017 he secured his 2000th British winner and Moore is a definitely a jockey who justifies a deep dive into his statistical performance.

As with the Hollie Doyle piece I have analysed the last eight full years of flat racing in the UK and Ireland (2015-2023). I have used the Profiler Tool along with the Query Tool as the main vehicles for my data gathering. In all the tables profit/loss quoted is to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

Ryan Moore: Overall Record

Let's first look at Moore’s overall stats by reviewing his performance on every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

An excellent strike rate for Moore, in excess of one win in every five, primarily due to the fact that a sizable percentage of his rides are on fancied runners at shorter prices. This market detail also partly accounts for the fact that the PRB figure is very high at 0.63. His A/E index, a ratio that essentially determines value, is around the average for all jockeys.

We can also see that backing all his rides blind would have secured losses of nearly 21p in the £ to SP; to BSP the returns improve, but we still would have lost around 12p for every £1 staked.

Ryan Moore: UK v Ireland

It is relevant to distinguish performance in the UK versus Ireland for Moore because there is a quite a difference:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore's record in Ireland is far superior in terms of win percentage. This is mainly due to the fact that, in Ireland, 93% of his rides have been for Aidan O’Brien, whereas in the UK this combo stands at just 17% of total rides. O’Brien runners are rarely big prices so as a result of this one would expect to see that high strike rate for Moore in Ireland. However, perhaps what is more significant is if we look at the data for horses from the top three in the betting, comparing Ryan's record in the UK with his record in Ireland.

 

 

We are now comparing like for like from a betting market perspective. And yet still we see a stronger performance in Ireland and a much higher strike rate, as well as significantly better returns and a stronger A/E index. It should be noted we get a similar set of results if using a price bracket of say 5/1 or less. Already I am thinking Moore riding in Ireland is something to keep an eye on.

Ryan Moore: Record by Year

Annual data are the next port of call. Here is a breakdown by win percentage / Strike Rate (SR%):

 

 

Six of the eight years have seen a strike rate of over 20%; 2019 and 2020 were the years to dip below that figure. One obvious reason that may help explain this lower level was that Aidan O’Brien slightly under-performed at the same time. Obviously that would have affected Moore’s record as he rides so regularly for the stable. Moreover, 2020 was Covid-affected with Moore largely unable to ride in Ireland: he had just 15 rides, across Irish Champions Weekend, with two wins and another five placed horses.

If we track the yearly strike rates of both trainer and jockey we can see there is a clear correlation:

 

 

As punters we need to appreciate that in most cases jockeys are only as good as the horses they are riding, and those primarily riding for top stables will win more often than jockeys who ride regularly for ‘lesser’ stables. This is why when researchers drill into data they often use price bands to compare in order to offer a fairer comparison (like I did earlier in the UK v Ireland – top three in the betting stats). Talking of price, let's look at this area next:

Ryan Moore: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

The Profiler offers a breakdown of performance by Starting Price splitting the market into seven price brackets. I have taken Moore’s record straight from that table:

 

 

As can be seen, Moore does not ride many genuine outsiders – less than 50 rides on horses priced 28/1 or bigger in the last eight years. From the table, then, it looks sensible to concentrate on horses priced 17/2 or shorter. When using BSP with these shorter priced runners one would have lost only around 6p in the £ across 3549 qualifiers. That's not too bad given the huge sample. In fact we would have made a small profit to BSP last year (2022) on horses with an industry SP of 17/2 or shorter. Hindsight, eh?

One clear problem with jockeys as well renowned as Moore is securing value. How easy is it to obtain value on a Moore mount? Clearly it is not easy, so we need to keep digging!

Ryan Moore: Record by Distance

A look at Ryan's record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands. Again I am comparing strike rates:

 

 

The one distance bracket that stands out from a strike rate perspective is 1m1f to 1m3f. The data sample is considerable so one would guess there is something going on here. But what could be happening? The first point to clarify is there is not a field size-related bias, even if 7f-1m races have a slightly bigger average field size than other distances.

One factor could be that Moore rarely blasts his runners out of the gates and hence tends to front run in races less than the average jockey. With that in mind, this might be what is hindering his strike rate figures at shorter distances (less than a mile). Over longer distances the front running bias declines considerably and hence in 1m1f to 1m3f this is not such an issue. That is one plausible idea.

Another theory is linked to the fact he rides many of the best bred middle distance horses in the world, usually for O'Brien / Coolmore Stud. Indeed if you look at the distance stats for Moore when riding for O’Brien, the best distance range for the pair is also 1m1f to 1m3f – hitting close to a 31% success rate. Backing this combo over these distances would have yielded a BSP profit of over 15p in the £. This theory, which initially had plenty of logic to it, now has some evidence to give it 'real world' credibility.

My final word on this distance section is simply that Moore may just judge the pace of these 1m1f-1m3f races better than any other distance. That may also have some validity.

Ryan Moore: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Moore has had at least 75 rides in the eight year sample period. The courses are listed alphabetically:

 

 

As one might expect, achieving blind profits at individual courses is unlikely, but Moore has snuck into SP profit at Chelmsford and Sandown. Using BSP actually does not change things too much with only Naas additionally edging into profit and Lingfield hitting break even.

Moore's record at Goodwood offers up some interesting stats when we compare his data on favourites with other market ranks:

 

 

The ‘not favourite’ stats include plenty of runners that were near the head of the market – combining second and third favourites produced just 6 winners from 73! Goodwood obviously hosts highly competitive racing so we do have to factor that in when noting poor or modest looking results. But perhaps a crucial note is that Aidan O'Brien doesn't really target the Glorious Goodwood festival like he does other meetings. Indeed, of the 16 tracks where O'Brien has saddled 20+ runners in the months of July and August, Goodwood has the lowest each way strike rate of all. Moore rode 55 of APOB's 80 such runners during the study period.

Considering Grade 1 UK courses more broadly, punters need to be cautious when focusing strongly on one particular jockey. For example, I think the following table is quite an eye opener. It compares Moore riding favourites at Grade 1 UK tracks with favourites at  non-Grade 1 UK tracks. The Grade 1 UK tracks are Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York:

 

 

It should be noted that the average price of the favourites at the UK Grade 1 tracks was higher, which will have a bearing on the strike rate, but even taking that into account the numbers are still poles apart. I did check horses priced 2/1 or shorter across both types of track and the non-Grade 1 UK courses secured an 11% better strike rate then as well and much better returns of an extra 19p in the £. I rarely back favourites myself, but if there are favourite backers out there, bear those stats in mind if looking to back a Moore 'jolly'.

Before moving away from courses, the stats from these five courses where Moore did not ride at least 75 runners are actually worth sharing:

 

 

The sample sizes are not that small and the two stand out stats are the PRB figures for Wolves (0.84) and Navan (0.80) – these are exceptionally high.

Ryan Moore: Record by Trainer

Here are the trainers that Moore has ridden for at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate) – there are 11 in total:

 

  * includes prior trainer entities at the same establishment

 

Moore has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially with horses from the top three in the betting – with these runners his figures read 21 wins from 54 (SR 38.9%) for an SP profit of £34.03 (ROI +63.0%). William Haggas and Charlie Hills are also trainers that Moore has done well for and, as a general rule, when the jockey teams up with either of these trainers I would look at it as a positive.

As expected Aidan O'Brien and Sir Michael Stoute provide Moore with the vast majority of his rides, with O'Brien offering better stats in that particular battle.

We saw earlier that the overall Ireland versus UK stats differed markedly for Moore. It makes sense therefore to compare Moore’s record with O'Brien when riding in the UK compared with Ireland. The graph below plots the relative win and win/placed (each way) strike rates:

 

 

We can see a much stronger set of results for Irish races in terms of wins and places. This was to be expected, with there being a heavy selection bias when Moore catches a plane to ride, but it is still nice to see that confirmed. Losses to level stakes correlated with the strike rates meaning they were much steeper in the UK than in Ireland for this jockey trainer combination - 16.5% in the UK, 5.8% in Ireland. This equates to a difference of nearly 11 pence in the £.

Ryan Moore: Record by Run Style

Onto run style now. Here is a breakdown of Moore’s run style in terms of percentage of runners that match each of the four styles measured on geegeez.co.uk:

 

 

These figures are very similar to those you would find if you averaged out all the jockeys in the weighing room. Ryan has raced from the front on 14% of his rides which equates to roughly one in every seven. However, there is a big difference if we compare the percentage of Moore front runners in handicaps to non-handicaps. In handicaps he has taken the early lead in just 9.7% of races, in non-handicaps the figure is 16.7%.

In sprint handicaps (5-6f) Moore has led early just 20 times in 264 races, which equates to just 7.6% of the time. This stat does baffle me. As regular readers will know, front runners in sprint handicaps generally have a huge edge. Moore clearly does not think like this – if he did that figure would be much much higher.

Moore follows the usual trend of jockeys where his front runners win more often than his prominent racers who in turn out-perform mid div and those held up early. I always look at favourite run style data, too, as this eliminates any potential selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. Here are the relative win strike rates for Moore-ridden favourites in terms of the four main run styles:

 

 

Over half of his front-running favourites went onto win. It should come as no surprise therefore that one would have made a healthy profit on Moore-ridden front-running favourites, while significant losses were incurred on favourites that were held up or raced midfield early. Moore on Aidan O'Brien-trained front-running favourites have an astonishing record: 60 wins from 94 runners (SR 63.8%). If your crystal ball had predicted these runners pre-race, you would been able to secure a huge profit of £52.36 (ROI +55.7%).

Ryan "More": Extra stats and nuggets

With the main body of the article complete allow me to share a few extra statistics that may be of interest:

  1. When riding a horse making its debut in the UK, Moore has won 44 times from 333 runs (SR 13.2%) for significant losses of £143.36 (ROI -43.1%). Even when these debutants have started favourite such runners made losses of around 29p in the £. Compare this to Irish debutants who have won over 25% of the time (23 wins from 90). This is another example of the O'Brien factor.
  2. Keep an eye on horses that are having their second career start where Moore was also on board for their debut. This cohort has produced 39 winners from 111 (SR 35.1%) for a small SP profit of £3.27 (ROI +3.0%). To BSP this improves to +£18.73 (ROI +16.9%).
  3. Moore has a better strike rate at Royal Ascot compared with all other Ascot meetings combined. At Royal Ascot his strike rate is 18.6%; all other Ascot meetings combined this figure is just 12.7%. At Royal Ascot (2015-2022) backing Moore blind would have yielded a BSP profit of £44.91 (ROI +18.2%).

Ryan Moore Main Takeaways

  1. Moore has a much higher strike rate in Ireland than in the UK (the O'Brien factor).
  2. Moore's form is heavily influenced by the form of the Aidan O'Brien stable, especially when racing over the Irish Sea.
  3. Moore has excelled at middle distances of 1m1f to 1m3f for all trainers, but especially so for O'Brien.
  4. At Grade 1 UK tracks it is difficult to find value when Moore is riding.
  5. Away from Grade 1 UK tracks Moore has made a small profit on all rides sent off favourite.
  6. He has an excellent record at both Navan and Wolverhampton (samples are modest but the PRB figures are insane).
  7. He has a very good record when riding for the Charlton stable, especially if they are in the top three of the betting. Charles Hills and William Haggas are trainers for whom he has solid records also.
  8. Moore has an outstanding record on front runners that start favourite. This is especially true if trained by O'Brien.
  9. The three extra nuggets shared immediately above.

*

So that wraps up my Ryan Moore profile. There is clearly no doubting Moore's qualities as a jockey – from a personal point of view, I just wish he would race close to or up with pace more often, especially in races of a mile or less. Given his superstar profile it is difficult but, as I hope you've discovered, not impossible to squeeze some juice out of Ryan Moore's value lemon.

Until next time...

- DR

Jockey Profiles: Hollie Doyle

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The first in a new series of articles looking at jockeys, this one will be focusing on Hollie Doyle, writes Dave Renham.

Hollie is still just 26 and has risen up the ranks quickly. She began as an apprentice at the Richard Hannon yard in 2014 and, by 2017, had ridden out her claim. Incidentally, in 2016, while still a five pound claimer, she rode a 25/1 winner for a geegeez.co.uk syndicate, Table Manners trained by Wilf Storey at Newcastle.

The 2019 campaign was her first real milestone when she rode 116 winners, in doing so setting a new record for the number of winners achieved by a female jockey in Britain. The following year, 2020, was another big one with her first win at Royal Ascot, her first Group race success, a win on Champions Day at Ascot (the first female to achieve this) swiftly followed in the next race by her first Group 1 triumph, aboard Glen Shiel. Since then Hollie has continued to go from strength to strength and is unquestionably one of the top jockeys around.

**

How to Use Profiler

Normally when gathering data for my articles on Geegeez, I use Query Tool or Draw Analyser or Pace analyser, or a combination of the three.  However, for this piece I obtained a good chunk of the data from the Profiler tool. You can find Profiler by clicking on the ‘Tools’ menu item. Once there, you will be presented with this somewhat sparse screen, and an invitation to "Enter a horse, trainer, jockey or sire name to begin":

 

 

As that instruction suggests, Profiler allows us to drill down into the record of any horse, trainer, jockey or sire. It is the same principle for each research area, but if wanting to research a jockey such as Hollie Doyle, we need to type their name into the Search bar at the top, and click the 'Jockeys tab'. This will display the following:

 

 

Clicking the 'Profile' button populates the 17 categories highlighted in blue in the first screen shot and thus creates a huge web page full of data. As the first variable in the list, the going stats will be displayed at the top and for Hollie Doyle’s search they came up as follows:

 

 

As can be seen we have a wealth of data, both win and each way. We also have a PRB figure (percentage of rivals beaten) which is an excellent ‘extra’ stat. Having data for 17 different categories all on one page is extremely useful.

For this piece I needed to adjust the Date Range filters because I wanted to look specifically at the years from 2015 to 2022. I also wanted to look at both flat (turf) and all weather racing so I set the filters as follows: (N.B. these filters were in place for the Going data shown above):

 

 

There are a number of other filters so, for example, you can look at just handicap data if you wish, just the wins, and so on. Also, we can drill into National Hunt racing data if we want to. It should be noted that when using the Profiler, it returns both UK and Irish results combined.

OK, so I have my parameters set, now it's time to dig into the stats. Before sharing my findings I should mention that as well as using the Profiler Tool for this research, I have used other sources,  including Query Tool. In all the tables profits/losses quoted are to Industry SP; I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

 

Hollie Doyle: Overall Record

Let us first look at Doyle’s baseline figures across every single runner during this eight-year period:

 

 

This is a thoroughly decent record: her A/E index of 0.91 is above the ‘average’ figure for all jockeys, which is 0.86. Likewise, her overall PRB figure of 0.54 is nicely above the 0.50 average mark. Losses of around 16 pence in the £ to SP convert to close to breaking even (losses of under 2p in the £) at exchange SP.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Year

I first wish to breakdown Doyle's stats by year. Here is a breakdown showing win percentage (or Strike Rate (SR%) if you prefer):

 

 

We can easily ignore the first year in the sample, 2015, as Hollie only had 39 rides in that year; and we can see how it often goes for a top jockey rising out of the apprentice ranks: a steady start launches into high strike rates as the claim's value is utilised, followed by a more challenging period post-riding out the claim, before blossoming into a top tier rider.

Hollie's profile mimics this perfectly: she rode out her claim in 2017 before a season of consolidation - more rides but fewer winners in 2018 - after which the last four years have seen her highest strike rates. Not only have the last four years seen her highest strike rates, but her most consistent ones too. 2019 to 2022 have seen strike rates within 1.3% of each other.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Distance

A look at her record at different distances now. I have grouped them into five distance bands and, again, I am comparing win strike rates:

 

 

The highest strike rate has occurred in the longer distance events (1m 7f or more); but, having said that, the data set is much smaller (just 199 races). Compare that to the 7f to 1 mile results which come from 1920 races, almost ten times as many. The vast majority of Doyle’s rides come in races of 1 mile or less – roughly 69% of all her rides have been over these shorter distances. This, in fact, perfectly mirrors the percentage of races which are run at a mile or shorter, which is unsurprising, I guess.

In a previous article on jockeys and run style I highlighted Doyle as a jockey that does well in handicaps on front runners; in sprints (5 to 6f) and also races of 7f to 1 mile. I will look in more detail at her run style data later.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Betting Odds / Price (SP)

Profiler gives a breakdown of performance by starting price splitting it up into seven price brackets. I have taken Hollie’s record straight from that table:

 

 

If you had backed all Doyle’s mounts focusing on the shorter end of the price (17/2 or shorter), you would have lost only 5p in the £. To Betfair SP though, that would have turned into a small profit of just over 4p in £. However, the value to be had with these runners has largely evaporated now she's a relative household name. In terms of very big priced runners (28/1 or bigger) only a handful have won. These have produced significant losses to SP and even to BSP losses stand at a weighty 35p in the £.

Hollie Doyle: Record by Course

I am now going to look at all courses where Hollie Doyle has had at least 75 rides. The courses are listed alphabetically in the table below:

 

 

I want to mention that course strike rates can sometimes be slightly misleading due to the average field sizes being vastly different from one track to another. For example, in the past eight seasons, the average field size (all races) at Ascot has been just under 12; contrast this with Ffos Las whose average has been around 7.6. Hence, using solely strike rates when comparing Ascot  with Ffos Las is not a statistically sensible play. I am not saying that a course strike rate is without use but, as with any single piece of information, it is useful to combine it with others.

The two stats that most interest me from a course perspective are the A/E indices and the PRB figures. Doyle’s figures for Yarmouth stand out with an A/E index of 1.30 and a PRB figure of 0.58. In addition the strike rate is high and she has made decent profits to SP. Her profits to BSP stand at an even more impressive +£90.55 (ROI +65.6%), and these figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners. It is also noteworthy that she has ridden winners at Yarmouth for a good number of different trainers (21 in total), so it is not one or two specific trainers providing all of the winning rides. Sticking with Yarmouth for one more stat, when Doyle has been riding a horse priced 8/1 or shorter she has secured 28 win from 88 rides. This equates to an excellent strike rate of 32%.

Before moving away from courses, one course that did not make the list due to having had only 46 rides was Pontefract. The stats, though, are very strong despite this smallish sample – 14 wins (SR 30.4%) for an SP profit of £22.19 (ROI +48.2%). A/E index of 1.55; PRB figure of 0.58.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Trainer

Some punters love to follow certain trainer / jockey combinations and, although I don't generally, I think certain combos do produce some betting opportunities that represent value. Here are the trainers for whom Doyle has ridden at least 50 times (ordered by strike rate):

 

 

As you can see, Archie Watson provides Doyle with a high proportion of her rides. Although she has not made a profit on the 939 spins in that sample, she has done on his more fancied runners. To wit, horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided the Doyle/Watson combination with 150 wins from 418 runners (SR 35.9%) showing a small SP profit of £14.07 (ROI +3.4%). To BSP this improves to +£40.68 (ROI +9.7%).

Her record with Alan King is excellent; not just because of the profit figure, but because the PRB is exceptionally high at 0.64. One other combo to mention is Hollie with the Gosden stable. The results are not in the table because they have only combined on 36 horses but, of these, 13 have won (SR 36.1%) for an excellent SP profit of £32.32 (ROI +89.8%). Where the Doyle/King PRB is impressive, the Doyle/Gosden figures trump them, standing at 0.69 (i.e. 69% of all rivals beaten). I think it would be worth keeping a close eye on the Gosden and King stables this season (and beyond), looking out for any Hollie Doyle booking.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record with Days since last run / horse layoff

A unique feature of the Profiler Tool (compared with the Query Tool) is the fact it gives you data for days since the horse last ran. Doyle’s figures are as follows:

 

 

As we can see Hollie has made a profit on horses whose last run was within a week of their prior start. As a general rule, my assumption, as with many others, has been that horses with shorter breaks outperform horses that are off the track for longer. This is the first time I have seen any PRB figures for any fitness based variable such as this. It is interesting, and pleasing to see the sliding scale from 0.61 down to 0.41. These findings give me the impetus to check PRB figures for a bigger group of runners to see if the same sliding scale is repeated. I am guessing it is – if so it might become the basis for an article in the future.

 

Hollie Doyle: Draw Awareness

Another first for me: this is the first time I have tried to drill down into this type of idea. Essentially punters, bookies, trainers and jockeys are aware of draw biases. Some will over- or under-estimate bias, but one would hope that seasoned jockeys understand the effect of the draw at most courses better than most. It is clearly a difficult area to research but I thought I had enough data for Hollie at one particular course, namely Kempton, to try to do this. My idea was simple: I wanted to compare her record in 8 or more runner handicaps at Kempton over 5f to 1 mile, with other jockeys, purely from a draw perspective. Kempton over these four distances (5f, 6f, 7f & 1m) offers a low draw edge and hence I wanted to compare Doyle’s record when drawn 1 to 4 (the best four draws) with all other jockeys. To do this, I decided to calculate the relevant PRB figures as these I would assume to be the most accurate, as they create bigger data sets than, say, using win and each way data.

Hollie had over 100 qualifying handicap rides when drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over these Kempton distances and her PRB figure was 0.60. The combined figure for all other jockeys is 0.55. This leads me to conclude, at least from these Kempton stats, that she has good draw awareness: she has performed notably above the norm when her horses have been well drawn at Kempton. I did check the non-handicap figures at Kempton using the same parameters – in these cases, she had fewer qualifying rides than in handicaps (44), but her PRB figure was a very impressive 0.63, the overall non handicap jockey figure stands at 0.53.

This is clearly a challenging area to research in great depth from an individual jockey perspective, due to small course and distance data sets. For example, you probably would not get enough individual data at Chester unless a jockey had ridden there regularly for 20 years or more, as that track does not host many meetings over a 12 month period. Kempton, however, has so many race meetings each year this is a course that lends itself to this avenue of research. Something else to maybe write about more in the future?

One further caveat worth mentioning with this type of research is the fact that there is some selection bias in the quality of top riders' mounts compared with the average.

 

Hollie Doyle: Record by Run Style

I mentioned earlier a recent article in which I touched upon Doyle’s positive record on front runners in handicaps at the sprint distances of 5f and 6f, but also at 7f and 1m. Well, Hollie's record from the front is actually extremely good across the board – handicaps / non-handicaps, and any distance. Yes, she has a higher strike rate on front runners running over shorter distances, but in all races of 1m1f or more her strike rate on these pace setters still hits just over 20% (A/E 1.10). This ranks her 9th out of all jockeys currently riding in the UK in terms of win strike rate (150 front running rides or more over 1m1f+ from 2015 to 2022), 12th if including Irish jockeys. In terms of A/E index she lies 11th (UK), 15th (UK and Ireland). For the record the average win strike for ALL jockeys over 1m1f+ stands at 15.6%.

Here is a breakdown of Hollie Doyle's run style performance across ALL races:

 

 

She has an excellent close to one win in four record with front runners, whereas with hold up horses this drops markedly to less than one win in every 12. The A/E figures correlate as the following chart shows:

 

 

As regular readers of my articles will know front runners have an edge at a majority of courses and distances, so the patterns seen for Doyle should come as no real surprise. That said, her figures are well above the norm over all distances, and if she is booked to ride a horse that often front runs, that ought to be seen as a double positive in cases where the pace map indicates an even tempo or, especially, Hollie's mount is the probable lone speed angle.

Before winding up the run style stats, let me share her record when riding the favourite:

 

 

More evidence, as if it was really needed, about the importance of early track position.

[As a side note, using favourite in run style analysis removes any selection bias regarding 'good horses at the front, bad ones at the back'. In spite of this levelling of the playing field, one invariably sees this type of strong front of field bias. Keep this in mind if you're currently backing plenty of fancied horses with a hold up run style!]

 

Some Extra Hollie Doyle Nuggets

With the main body of the article complete let me just share with you a few extra stats or nuggets that may be of interest:

  1. When Hollie retains the ride after winning last time, her record reads 67 wins from 310 (SR 21.6%). Backing all runner to BSP would have yielded a profit of £31.12 (ROI +10.0%).
  2. Horses that finished second last time have a good record with Doyle on board. Of the 585 qualifiers, 139 have won (SR 23.8%) for a BSP profit of £74.03 (ROI +12.7%).
  3. In very small fields (2 to 4 runners) Doyle has secured 54 wins from 142 rides (SR 38.0%) for a BSP profit of £65.27 (ROI +46.0%). She made significant profits if backing to Industry SP, too (+£53.79).
  4. In Class 1 races, Hollie has done well if the horse has been fancied (defined as priced 10/1 or shorter). 25 wins from 109 (SR 22.9%) for a BSP profit of £26.29 (ROI +24.1%).

 

Hollie Doyle Main Takeaways

  1. Doyle has been extremely consistent in the past four years and as I am penning this piece her strike rate for 2023 is above her norm at 15.8%.
  2. When riding more fancied runners (17/2 or less) Hollie has made a small profit to BSP, though that may be due to historical data so some caution is advised.
  3. She has an excellent record at both Yarmouth and Pontefract.
  4. Doyle should be noted when riding for Alan King or the Gosden stable and, also, when riding for Archie Watson look out for shorter priced horses (4/1 or less).
  5. If Hollie is on board a horse that had run in the past seven days it tends to be a positive.
  6. At Kempton in races of 1m or less when drawn 4 or lower she has performed well above the norm.
  7. Doyle is an excellent rider from the front at all distances.
  8. The four "extra nuggets" shared immediately above.

*

There are plenty of Hollie Doyle stats to get to grips with in the above: lots of positives, and the occasional negative, too. Hollie should continue to give us plenty of potential betting opportunities in the coming weeks, months and, I hope, years. I really rate her as one of the very best around and, more importantly, the stats tend to agree!

- DR