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Mildenberger is determined winner at Wolverhampton

Mildenberger just prevailed in a thrilling tussle with Rainbow Dreamer to edge victory by a head in the Betway Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton.

Winning jockey Joe Fanning did his best to ensure a modest early pace increased with a circuit to go, taking Mark Johnston’s stayer briefly prominent for the first time as the field passed the stands.

It was a mid-race move which paid off as Outbox and eventual third Nate The Great took the hint and upped the tempo – to Mildenberger’s advantage by the time he moved to the lead entering the straight again.

Rainbow Dreamer, the 7-4 favourite to win this fast-track qualifier for the second year in succession, closed to produce a strong challenge in the final furlong.

But despite edging successfully through a gap between Mildenberger and Nate The Great to claim a rail position, Tom Marquand and the runner-up could not quite get to the 11-4 winner.

Mildenberger, who was turning round recent Newcastle form with Rainbow Dreamer, has therefore booked his place in the Betway All-Weather Marathon Championship at Lingfield on Good Friday.

Fanning told Sky Sports Racing: “It was a messy race – the pace kept steadying, and every time I went to go and put a bit of pressure on they kept quickening up, and then when I came back they slowed up again.

“If they’d gone a proper gallop, I’d have won (further).”

Mildenberger, second in last year’s Group Three Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle, nonetheless responded with great determination when it mattered.

Fanning, who was riding the six-year-old for only the second time, added: “Every time this guy’s won when I’ve seen him (previously), it’s been a good gallop.

“I was just worried it was slowing up a little bit for him.

“He’s a very good horse on the turf as well, and I thought he had a big shout in that kind of race.”

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

1.15 Newbury : Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly and lost ground start, held up in last pair, headway on far rail over 2f out, ridden and hung left 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

In my haste this morning to get out to my aunt's funeral, I inadvertently quoted Mark Johnston's Goodwood stats! So, much later than planned/usual (approaching 12.30pm!), here are the correct details for today...

Mark Johnston + Pontefract + Classes 2-5 + 1m2f and beyond + 9/1 max SP + 2016-20 = 16 from 55 (29.1% SR) for 10.03pts (+18.2% ROI), from which...

  • 10/27 (37%) for 10.23pts (+37.9%) were placed LTO
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 7.09pts (+39.4%) with those with a run in the previous 10 days
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 3.13pts (+22.4%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.05pts (+77.3%) with females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 2.18pts (+19.8%) in June
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle

Plus from the unique Geegeez racecard pace/draw heatmap...

...which is why I placed...a 1pt win bet on My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

1.15 Newbury : Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly and lost ground start, held up in last pair, headway on far rail over 2f out, ridden and hung left 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

In my haste this morning to get out to my aunt's funeral, I inadvertently quoted Mark Johnston's Goodwood stats! So, much later than planned/usual (approaching 12.30pm!), here are the correct details for today...

Mark Johnston + Pontefract + Classes 2-5 + 1m2f and beyond + 9/1 max SP + 2016-20 = 16 from 55 (29.1% SR) for 10.03pts (+18.2% ROI), from which...

  • 10/27 (37%) for 10.23pts (+37.9%) were placed LTO
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 7.09pts (+39.4%) with those with a run in the previous 10 days
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 3.13pts (+22.4%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.05pts (+77.3%) with females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 2.18pts (+19.8%) in June
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle

Plus from the unique Geegeez racecard pace/draw heatmap...

...which is why I placed...a 1pt win bet on My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.20 Wolverhampton : Bavardages @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Raced wide prominent, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, edged left towards finish and beaten by a neck) : I'd say he was forced left rather than him edging over, but the neck margin of defeat wasn't as close as it seems.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the entry in the racecard...

...which tells us instantly that both trainer and jockey have decent records at the track (green C5 icon), so I won't labour those individual points today and move straight on the horse itself, a 3 yr old Colt who was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen 90 days ago. This makes him another qualifier for this angle I used yesterday that almost bagged us another winner...

...yesterday's losing selection hasn't been added to the stats just yet, but that doesn't alter the numbers too much and of those 52 (now 53, of course!) qualifiers...

  • those competing for less than £8k are 18/43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%)
  • on Polytrack : 12/27 (44.4%) for 24.1pts (+89.1%)
  • ridden by Joe Fanning : 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.3pts (+62.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22.9pts (+176%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/10 960%) for 15.03pts (+150.3%)
  • and those coming back from 60-90 days off track are 4 from 8 (50%) for 11.5pts (+143.6%)

I wasn't surprised to see good numbers above for the jockey and track filters, because according to a simple angle I have stored in my Geegeez Query Tool...

this has happened...

and the above impressive 81% ROI at SP (which nobody should be using) is transformed to a brilliant 107.8% at Betfair SP! And of these 71 qualifiers from a really simple angle...

  • male runners are 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.4pts (+100.8%)
  • those racing in fields of 7-9 runners are 12/31 (38.7%) for 68.8pts (+222.1%)
  • those competing for prizes less than £4k are 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.8pts (+143.5%)
  • whilst Class 5 runners are 7/21 (33.3%) for 32.3pts (+153.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG as was offered generally at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!