Enfjaar continued his rise through the ranks to lead home a one-two for trainer Roger Varian in the prestigious John Smith’s Cup at York.
The four-year-old looked a smart prospect after winning his first two career starts at Newmarket and Chelmsford, but a disappointing run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer was followed by two more below-par efforts before 2023 was over.
However, having been gelded during the off-season, Enfjaar went some way to restoring his reputation when scoring comfortably on his return at Chelmsford last month, and he was a 15-2 shot to follow up under a 5lb penalty in one of the feature handicaps of the season on the Knavesmire.
Ridden by Jack Mitchell, Enfjaar travelled smoothly on the heels of the leaders rounding the home turn before being switched to grab the stands’ side rail early in the straight.
The result was never really in much doubt after he moved inside the final two furlongs, as with the rail to help, he found plenty for pressure to score by a length and three-quarters, with his stablemate and 9-2 favourite Botanical pipping Tony Montana to the runner-up spot.
“There was a few battle-hardened horses in there but he really relaxed,” said Mitchell.
“He used to be quite a keen horse but the gelding has been the making of him, I’m just so pleased for the horse, Roger and Sheikha Hissa (owner).
“I think he’s better than a handicapper, his work was very pleasing coming into today and he should progress – the time off he’s had and the gelding has been the making of this horse.”
Enfjaar at Royal Ascot last year (John Walton/PA)
Richard Hills, representing owners Shadwell, added: “He’s a changed horse this year, we gave him a long rest last year, as he had a bit of bone bruising and a few other things.
“He came back to the yard where we rehabilitate our horses and he went and won really nicely at Chelmsford.
“Jack rode him there and rode him in his work last week and he looked really good, this is a tough race to win.
“We won it two years ago with Anmaat and he went and won a Group One – I’m not saying this fella will, I hope he will, but this is a very competitive race and I’m really chuffed.”
He added: “He’s improving, he’s got things together and he’s in good form.
“We’ll reassess and see where they put him, now we’ll probably be out of the handicap and into Group races and there’s lots of lovely races over a mile and a quarter – in England and in Europe and further abroad.
“It’s exciting, he’s really getting there now.”
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Astro King will strive to go one better than last year when he lines up for the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday.
The gelding, trained by Daniel and Claire Kubler, missed out by just a nose last season when Amy Murphy’s Pride Of America was declared the winner following a photo finish.
After that performance, the runner-up ended his season strongly, winning the Finale Handicap on his return to York next time out and then going on to land the Cambridgeshire before two creditable runs in the Middle East.
This year, the bay started his season on a good note, finishing second when a length behind Ottoman Fleet in the Group Three Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket.
After that, he was fourth at Group Two level in the Jockey Club Stakes at the same track, following which he headed to the Royal meeting for a luckless beaten run in the Wolferton Stakes.
Astro King winning the Sky Bet Finale Handicap at York last year (Mike Egerton/PA)
He now returns to handicap level on the Knavesmire, where he looks to get the verdict this time under a top-weight allocation when partnered by Richard Kingscote.
“He went very close in the race last year and he ticks a lot of boxes, so fingers crossed he can run a similar race this time,” said Daniel Kubler.
“He’s come out of Ascot well, that’s why we’re going to York with him, and he’s a course and distance winner.
“He was only beaten a nose in a very close photo finish in this race last year, I just hope it dries out, as he wouldn’t want it too soft.”
Haunted Dream was the third-placed horse behind Pride Of America and Astro King in the race last season and will take part again for new connections, having been purchased by Wathnan Racing and sent to Hamad Al-Jehani.
Haunted Dream (grey) finishing second in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)
The handler has relocated from Qatar to train in Britain and having recently got off the mark with his first winner on these shores, he is now looking for a first York victory with a horse in good form.
Haunted Dream was second at Royal Ascot in the Wolferton, finishing behind Israr in a smart run that now leads to a planned journey to Yorkshire.
“It was a good performance at Royal Ascot. We finished second, we didn’t win, but we had a nice performance from him,” said Al-Jehani.
“He was beaten by a nice horse. I was very pleased with him. He finished second in a Listed race and printed his name as a black-type horse, so we were very happy.
“It was the plan before that to go to the John Smith’s. He finished third (at York) last year with his previous trainer. If he can show a similar performance, hopefully we will have a nice chance there.
“We are really excited to go to York with a nice horse for the first time. It’s really important for us. Hopefully we will have a nice experience.”
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid has two strong chances in Liberty Lane and Botanical, trained by Karl Burke and Roger Varian respectively – the latter of whom has another runner in the Shadwell-owned Enfjaar.
Dual Identity winning the Whitsun Cup at Sandown (John Walton/PA)
William Knight’s Dual Identity has been faring well this year, winning the Whitsun Cup at Sandown before returning to the track to come third in another valuable contest over course and distance and then sixth when beaten two and a half lengths in the Coral Challenge.
He now steps up in trip having run those races over a mile, and Knight is hoping the extended distance will play to his strengths, as his handicap allocation is eased by 5lb-claimer Brandon Wilkie.
“He’s come out of that Sandown race well, though you always worry when you back them up quickly after a relatively hard race,” the trainer said.
“Our angle is that stepping up to a mile and a quarter and taking a valuable five (pounds) off his back should put him in with a big chance of running well on Saturday.
“I think he needs to be stepped up now to a mile and a quarter. It should be nice ground on Saturday and if there’s a little bit of juice in it, that will help as well.”
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Haunted Dream will attempt to go one better than his fine Royal Ascot second when he drops back to handicap company for York’s John Smith’s Cup on Saturday, for which 44 are still in contention.
The five-year-old is trained by Hamad Al-Jehani, one of the leading trainers in Qatar and who has set up camp in Newmarket for the summer to oversee a small string for owners Wathnan Racing.
A somewhat unlucky fourth at Epsom prior to running in the Wolferton Stakes at Ascot, Haunted Dream was one of three runners for Al-Jehani at the Royal meeting and fared best of those behind clear winner Israr in his 10-furlong Listed assignment.
Al-Jehani has since got off the mark in the UK when Make Me King triumphed at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day and the 35-year-old is now keen to add this weekend’s £200,000 handicap on the Knavesmire to his CV.
“The plan for Haunted Dream is to go to the John Smith’s Cup,” said Wathnan’s racing adviser Richard Brown.
“He’s been an absolute star and Hamad and his team have done a tremendous job with him.
“He’s a lovely horse and we look forward to seeing him run up at York.”
James Tate is looking forward to running Flying Frontier in what is traditionally one of the hottest handicaps of the season.
He was beaten less than four lengths in a valuable handicap at Sandown which has worked out well on his first start for almost 270 days last month and his trainer is anticipating improvement.
“Flying Frontier has been confirmed this morning and it is very much the plan to run,” said Tate.
“This has been on his agenda for some time and I was very pleased with his comeback run at Sandown given he hadn’t run for a long time and a mile is too sharp for him.”
Astro King, beaten a nose last year by Pride Of America, could be back again 12 months on but is this year set to carry top-weight.
Roger Varian’s Botanical and the Karl Burke-trained pair of Bolster and Liberty Lane give owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid a strong hand.
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Freddy Tylicki has fond memories of Flying Clarets, the 2008 John Smith’s Cup winner that played a huge part in putting him on the map.
Tylicki was still a 7lb claimer at the time, and had only moved to join Richard Fahey in Malton in January of that year.
Having started out his journey with the legendary Jim Bolger in Ireland, Tylicki, whose father Andrzej had been champion jockey in Germany three times, certainly had the right grounding to make a name for himself.
He went on to do just that, becoming the champion apprentice in 2009 and going on to ride Group One winners before his career was cruelly cut short.
Tylicki remembers that July day on the Knavesmire vividly, and despite his all-the-way success on the mare, who had been second a year earlier, he felt he kicked for home too soon!
“I think she was only my fourth or fifth career win, so a big race like that so early was absolutely massive for me,” said Tylicki.
Freddy Tylicki salutes the crowd as Flying Clarets crosses the line (Martin Rickett/PA)
“To have a ride in such a prestigious handicap like that was amazing; I was a 7lb claimer, I’d only joined Mr Fahey in late January.
“She was a front-runner and she was all heart, but I think I kicked way too early – thankfully she was all guts and kept battling on. It was a fantastic day and she was the one who got me rolling properly.
“That was the only time I ever rode her and I remember a couple of challengers coming at me, but she just kept pulling out more.
“To win such a huge handicap at York was pretty cool, I have to say, it was a great feeling, everyone was happy, the syndicate who owned her (Matthewman Partnership) were over the moon, which was great.”
The race takes place on a typically crowded Saturday afternoon shared by the July Cup at Newmarket and the Summer Mile at Ascot but perhaps as a result, the list of winning jockeys has a history of falling to apprentice riders.
Fahey had provided Paul Hanagan with his first major win in the same race in 2002 aboard Vintage Premium before Jamie Moriarty in 2007 on Charlie Tokyo, while jockeys like Martin Lane (Wigmore Hall 2010), Adam Beschizza (Green Destiny 2011), Thomas Brown (Educate 2016) and Freddie Larson last year on Pride Of America have all showcased their talents to a much wider audience.
The day has often come in for criticism for too much quality racing in a short space of time, but Tylicki sees both sides of the argument.
“I suppose when you look at it from either side, if you are an active jockey, you think it is great because it might just open up a new door for you,” he said.
“There are lads waiting for a good Saturday horse to come along and if your first, second and third-choice jockeys are elsewhere, there are other lads looking to do the job and it’s about taking that opportunity.
“But on the other hand, looking at owners and trainers, the bigger yards tend to have four or five lads regularly riding out and they are looking for continuity. There are plusses and minuses on both sides.”
Tylicki still speaks fondly of his time with Fahey and remains very thankful the trainer took a chance on him.
“You knew where you were with Richard, he was straight down the line. He was great for me,” he said.
“I had done three and a half years at Jim Bolger’s and he was the one who made me streetwise, but when I arrived at Musley Bank I was ready to go.
“To claim off all those horses, he had a lot of handicappers, and Richard wasn’t shy to make use of claimers if they were good enough. Luckily, I was ready.
“Richard also made Paul Hanagan champion apprentice and it’s a great place for a young jockey because he gives you a chance.”
Freddy Tylicki is now a TV pundit and bloodstock agent (Mike Egerton/PA)
That day in 2008 propelled Tylicki into the wider racing world and for that reason Flying Clarets will always be remembered fondly.
“I was the new kid on the block after that win and it certainly opened up a lot more doors for me,” he said.
Now Tylicki is a regular face as a pundit on Sky Sports Racing and he is also a bloodstock agent, with his claim to fame in that role to date coming as the buyer of the James Fanshawe-trained Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly, who went on to be third in the Irish version.
“He’s a horse that has made everyone very proud. I suppose he didn’t stay on the day (in the Irish Derby) against a horse like Los Angeles, but he lost nothing in defeat,” he said.
“Second at Epsom, third in the Irish Derby, they are very hard races to win, they are Classics, so you can’t be disappointed. I’m not sure what’s next, I leave that to the team but on what he has achieved, you cannot be disappointed.
“It was the right race to run in in Ireland, it was his last chance to win a Derby and the Gredley family (owners) were very keen to go in against his own age group, they had to roll the dice.
“Hopefully he stays sound and in one piece – and if he does, I’m pretty sure there are plenty more good days in him. I’ve just got to try to find another one like him, but it will be hard.”
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Pride Of America just held on to prevail in a thrilling finish to the John Smith’s Cup at York.
Trained by Amy Murphy, the six-year-old has always been a solid operator for the Southgate Stables handler and was seen to good effect landing a competitive Chester handicap earlier in the campaign.
Out of luck when tackling Group company in France last month, Pride Of America was sent off at 18-1 to bounce back on the Knavesmire off a career-high rating and pulled out all the stops when it mattered.
Having shadowed Andrew Balding’s Nobel to near the head of proceedings entering the home straight, he was soon embroiled in a sustained battle with that unexposed four-year-old and Ed Dunlop’s Haunted Dream.
Entering the final furlong Nobel’s challenge began to falter and although Pride Of America appeared to have Haunted Dream covered, it was Daniel and Claire Kubler’s Astro King who emerged on the scene under with looked a winning run.
There was little to separate the pair as they flashed past the winning post, but it was the mount of 3lb apprentice Frederick Larson who got the nod after a tense wait for the photo-finish, with a nose the official winning distance.
Murphy has won a Grade One over fences thanks to the popular Kalashnikov and has also tasted Listed success in France, but the win marked the biggest Flat success of her career on home soil.
She said: “I’m absolutely ecstatic, there’s no better feeling than when a horse like him, who takes a lot of training and managing, grabs a big prize like that.
“It’s unbelievable and I’m thrilled for the owners and the whole team.
A picture to remember for connections of Pride Of America (Molly Hunter/PA)
“This has been his target since March, but he does need a bit of cut in the ground. I couldn’t imagine we were going to get cut in the ground in the middle of July, it was a bit of a worry and no one was doing a bigger rain dance than me!”
Of the wait for the photo to be announced, she added: “It was horrific! You can probably tell from my voice that I’ve probably done a lot of screaming in the last five minutes, but thankfully it’s gone our way.
“The owners are my biggest supporters and I’m just thrilled to be able to repay them.
“Today was the target, we’ll just enjoy today and worry about the rest afterwards!”
WHAT A FINISH!
Pride Of America (18-1) wins the £200,000 John Smith's Cup Handicap @yorkracecourse by the narrowest of margins from the fast-finishing Astro King!
Larson said: “I’ve always been grateful for Amy, she’s always supported me since I’ve started riding. She said to me on Thursday did I fancy taking a bit of weight off him and I jumped at the opportunity and switched where I was going.
“Everything went wrong for him today, but he still managed to dig it out and win. I’m so glad. Big Saturdays at York is just where you want to be winning, it’s a dream come true.”
Of the gallant runner-up, Daniel Kubler said: “That’s pretty tough. We had one beaten not far at Royal Ascot and now this, but fair play to Amy, she’s done a hell of a job with that horse.
“He’s been a bridesmaid, but I don’t think he’s been that today – he’s put everything on the line. It’s one of those things, another stride and we were in front. It’s really exciting to have horses at this level and we’d love a few more of them.”
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Sonny Liston will try to deliver a knockout blow as he steps back up in trip in the John Smith’s Cup at York.
The four-year-old was last seen finishing second to Jimi Hendrix – also trained by Ralph Beckett and owned by Chelsea Thoroughbreds – in the Royal Hunt Cup over a mile at Royal Ascot last month.
Sonny Liston tackles an extended 10 furlongs on the Knavesmire, a trip the gelding has encountered before when third in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester as a three-year-old.
“I think gelding him has really helped and he was the last off the bridle at Ascot,” said Emma Spencer, managing director and racing manager for owners Chelsea Thoroughbreds.
“I expect him to be ridden the same when he steps up in trip at York, he seemed to switch off well, but obviously Jimi Hendrix was quite a long way ahead of him on the other side.
— ChelseaThoroughbreds (@ChelseaTbreds) June 22, 2023
“I think it looks a good race for him, obviously a very different race to Ascot, but I think he’s kind of proven himself over the trip before and could now get his act together and build on what he did in the Hunt Cup.”
Daniel and Claire Kubler’s Astro King finished down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup, but had previously ran well over a mile at York, coming home fourth and beaten just a length and a quarter despite not being afforded a clear passage through the race.
“If he hadn’t run in the Hunt Cup, what price would he be for this?” said Daniel Kubler.
“That first run for us at York was very encouraging. Straight after the race, we were like, ‘here’s a plan’ – because he finished off the race really nicely. So, we sort of always had it in our minds that probably Hunt Cup and then this looked very logical from that point onwards.
Astro King (left) in the silks of previous connections (Tim Goode/PA)
“Our analytics and stuff that we do would suggest that he should get a mile and a quarter. It’s definitely something that’s worth exploring further. I suppose the only thing is we wouldn’t want loads of rain. That would be our slight one, we’re a little bit concerned about.”
Simon and Ed Crisford’s Sea The Casper will be popular after his sole run of the year ended in victory in a 10-furlong Lingfield handicap.
Philip Robinson, assistant racing manager to owner Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, said: “He’s a horse who hasn’t had a lot of racing, but he is going the right way and seems to be improving.
“He’s working nicely and we’re hopeful he will have a great chance.”
Marhaba The Champ (noseband) winning at York earlier in the season (Mike Egerton/PA)
Kevin Ryan’s Marhaba The Champ is another horse with York form under his belt after his success over the course and distance in a May handicap.
His owner Jaber Abdullah is also represented by Robinson, who said: “He loved the track when he won there earlier this year.
“He had a tongue-tie on last time at Epsom (sixth) and he didn’t face it, but the ground should be fine and it’s all systems go.”
Elsewhere on the card, there is Listed action in the John Smith’s City Walls Stakes, a five-furlong sprint that has attracted 11 runners.
Ed Bethell’s Regional, an impressive winner of the Listed Achilles Stakes at Haydock and victorious over course and distance on his penultimate run, leads the way.
Regional will look to back up his Achilles Stakes victory with another in Listed company (Nigel French/PA)
The latter effort was on good ground and the former on good to firm, meaning the five-year-old would not appreciate the heavy rain forecast in the York area.
“It’s very much weather-dependent at the moment. I’m hoping for a miracle and that every weather forecast will be completely wrong!” said Bethell.
“He’s in absolutely brilliant form at home, he looked pretty progressive in his last start when he won the Listed race at Haydock.
“He’s got a penalty to contend with as a result but it is more the weather that is my concern really, we’ll keep an eye on it and then make a call.
“I had thought that he could run here and then work towards the Nunthorpe, but if he didn’t run here and I had to go straight there then it wouldn’t really bother me.”
Queen Me (far left) finishing second previously at York (Mike Egerton/PA)
Queen Me, trained by Kevin Ryan and owned by Jaber Abdullah, finished just three lengths behind Shaquille in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot on her last outing and now takes on a five-furlong trip for the first time.
“She has showed quite a lot of ability and she finished behind Swingalong in the Lowther last year, so we know she likes York,” said Robinson on behalf of the owner.
“The ground should be fine and back in a Listed race, I think she will have a great chance. She’s been racing in Group One company and it makes a big difference, so hopefully she will be able to find her old form.”
A field of six contests the Group Three John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes over a mile and six furlongs.
William Haggas’ Hamish was a decisive winner of the Ormonde Stakes at Chester on his last outing.
Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan also holds an entry and will benefit from the forecast rain when returning to a track he has run well at several times.
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Ajero could head for the John Smith’s Cup at York following his fine run when fourth in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.
Kim Bailey’s eight-year-old performed with credit at Royal Ascot for a second successive year, having finished second in the 12-furlong handicap in 2022 before being beaten by just shy of three lengths by Okita Soushi off a 7lb higher rating.
Raised a further 1lb to a figure of 97 following that run, he is now unlikely to contest the Charlton Handicap he won at Goodwood last year, opening the door for Ajero to line-up on the Knavesmire on July 15 in the fiercely-competitive £200,000 contest.
Ajero winning at Goodwood last year (Steven Paston/PA)
“He could be going to York for his next run in the John Smith’s Cup,” said Bailey.
“We’ve had an enormous amount of fun with him. His run at Ascot this year was off 7lb higher than last year, which for an eight-year-old is quite something really.
“Sadly we can’t get to Goodwood this year which is disappointing. He’s now 97 and it’s a 0-95. That would have been the perfect race for him which is annoying. He won it last year and it would have been nice to go back there, but we can’t take the chance he will get in because I’m sure he won’t.
“The John Smith’s Cup is a tough race and a slightly different ball game, but we love the horse, he’s a real character and just great.”
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Plenty of very competitive races to get stuck into on ‘Super Saturday’ but the main race of interest is surely the John Smith’s Cup at York (4.05pm). This is one of my favourite races of the season and it’s often won by a horse capable of mixing it at Group level.
A massive field of 22 set to go to post for this one, one of the biggest fields you’ll see go around a bend all season, so is there a draw bias?
According to the data above, there isn’t much between low, middle and high. Middle draws have produced the most winners (13) whilst there is little between low and high from a win perspective (9 and 10 respectively).
There isn't much between the place percentage data either. Middle draws once again have a very slight edge with a 20% place strike rate but low comes in at 21.94% with high draws not far behind at 20.41%.
The PRB data also backs up the suggestion that there isn’t much of a draw bias with low draws producing a PRB of 0.50, middle draws at 0.51 and high draws 0.49.
Looking at the individual stall data, there isn’t a huge amount between a lot of the stalls again. The main thing that stands out is the extremely high stalls tend to perform relatively poorly but there is very limited data for these. Stalls 17, 18 and 19 do have a decent sample size and they are amongst the poorer stalls for place percentage and PRB but stall 17 has won this twice on ground that is good or softer and stall 22 has won before on faster ground.
Given the data I’d prefer to be drawn between 3 and 16 inclusive but very high draws look a slight disadvantage rather than a reason to rule out a runner.
Pace
York tends to be a pace track over sprint distances but is it fairer over this extended 10f?
This course and distance looks pretty fair from a pace perspective on easier ground. Not many winners manage to make all, with a relatively poor win percentage of 4.17% but the place percentage doesn’t perform too badly at 18.75%, even if it is statistically the least successful run style for place purposes too.
The best win percentage belongs to prominent, followed by held up whilst the place percentages suggest mid division is very slightly favoured over prominent. The place percentage backs up the win percentage data in front runners doing least best and hold ups doing next least best but there is very little in the figures suggesting you shouldn’t be put off any run style unless the pace map shows an extreme likely pace outcome.
John Smith’s Cup Pace Map
This is the pace map for the 2021 John Smith’s Cup, based on each runner’s last two runs.
Very interesting that there is a ton of likely early pace in this contest. A huge eight of these runners led early last time out and three of them have led early on at least their last two starts. There is so much pace that you’d probably think twice about even backing anything that races prominently as they could be too close to a pace collapse.
Judging by the likely pace in this race, preference would be for runners who should be held up in mid division or in the rear.
Draw and Pace Combination
One more data view before we look at the runners.
This heat map shows the likely best run styles for each draw in this race. Historically higher drawn front runners have performed better than their lower drawn counterparts whereas the best draw for prominent racers has been low.
We are probably more interested in the best draws for mid division and held up given the likely strong pace and the data from previous races suggests a middle draw is slightly preferred for both of those run styles. There is very little between low and high draws for the more patiently ridden runners.
The Runners
Here are the main contenders for this year’s John Smith’s Cup, in early odds order.
Astro King
Progressive this season in top handicaps and was runner up in the Royal Hunt Cup on his latest start. He’s gone up 4lbs for that run but gets to run off the same mark here so is 4lbs well in. Connections have often said he’ll be better going back up in trip (raced exclusively at a mile this season but ran over 10f last year) and several of his runs back that up but the ground has to be a slight question mark here. His poorest run to date came on soft ground over this trip and any rain that falls on Saturday is likely to decrease his chances of winning. He’d have been a solid contender on fast ground but he’s opposable on good to soft or worse.
Surrey Pride
Boasts rock solid claims after a course and distance win here in May. He won pretty comfortably that day, looking to have improved since a successful 3yo campaign, and a 6lb rise surely underestimates him given how that form has worked out. The 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th have all won since which is extremely hot form and I’m a big fan of course form when betting at York, especially when there is some cut in the ground.
One common misconception in racing is that horses that don’t want fast ground automatically want soft ground and vice versa. Surrey Pride is one of those horses that doesn’t want extremes of going. He finished 4th on his only run on good to firm, his form on soft or heavy ground reads 5557 and his form on good or good to soft reads 61111, with the only defeat coming on debut (in a maiden that worked out well). If the ground doesn’t soften beyond good to soft on Saturday (there is a bit of rain forecast) he’s the one to beat. The one question mark is being drawn in the highest stall. It’s probably a disadvantage, but not a massive one and not one that hasn’t been overcome before (Farraaj won from stall 22 in 2014).
Aaddeey
I gave this horse a good write up for the Old Newton Cup on Saturday only for the ground to soften and for him to be withdrawn. It’s unlikely the ground is going to be perfect here and the drop in trip has to be considered a pretty big negative. He did run well over 10f at Newbury on seasonal debut in what was a warm race but he’s 15lbs higher here courtesy of improving for running over 12f. A strong pace will help him but he’s probably going to get 14f this season and on ground that is softer than ideal he’s worth taking on.
Dawaam
Owen Burrows’ runner is four from five on the all weather but yet to reach the places in three efforts on turf. You couldn’t say he doesn’t go on turf as he was only beaten 5 lengths in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot last time and he’s technically 8lbs well in here. However he did fail to beat a rival home on his only run on good to soft ground and that came off a lower mark than this so he’s a bit of a punt in this and surprisingly short in the betting, the fact that he’s 8lbs well in probably largely determining that.
Ascension
Happiest when the mud is flying so his run on fast ground in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out is easily forgiven. He was a comfortable winner before that on good to soft ground at Newbury in a fair handicap but probably flattered by running on the favoured near side rail on that occasion and not necessarily the best runner in that race. This is his first run over further than a mile and he hasn’t looked to be crying out for this test to date but his sire has winners at all trips and the dam stayed 10f so there are possibilities.
Fishable
A Ripon specialist (form figures there of 1141) but does have York form too. He was runner up over course and distance last season on soft ground and then although only 8th in first time cheekpieces here behind Surrey Pride in May, he missed the break by about 5 lengths that day and was badly squeezed up when in the process of running a big race. He has gone up 3lbs since for winning again at Ripon.
He looks to have a major form chance but he did make all last time and trying those same tactics here would probably be a mistake. He has also been held up plenty of times though and it might just be a case of connections choosing to ride him more prominently when he goes to Ripon, tactics that are suited to that course. Stall 18 is probably slightly higher than ideal but not the end of the world.
Al Zaraqaan
Progressive on the all weather over the winter but hasn’t run to the same level on any going type since on turf. He did run better on turf at Group 2 level on fast ground than he did on soft ground in a listed race but he’s not going to get fast turf here and he’s yet to prove he’s capable of winning a big handicap off a mark of 107 on turf. He does have further progression left in him though.
Good Birthday
Won the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar this season and it’s a race that has worked out very well. He was well placed that day though and probably not the best horse in the race and he didn’t back it up next time out at Newmarket when well beaten. The ground might have been more to blame that day than a 4lb rise and easier ground will undoubtedly suit more here. He’s been well beaten in two runs at York and isn’t always the most reliable so although he’s capable of running well if on a going day, others look better handicapped.
Nicholas T
Not many horses win the Northumberland Plate before coming here but he does have plenty of form over this trip and is on a roll having put together back to back wins. He’s taken his form to a new level this season over trips further than this and it’s likely he could struggle off a career high mark now.
Bright Start
Probably been better on all weather surfaces to date and his only win came on dirt in Meydan over the winter. He has run well on a variety of going types on turf and can’t be completely ruled out having finished a nose runner up to a progressive type last time out but his turf form does leave him needing to step up and he could be ridden too close to the pace here.
Johnny Drama
Took his form to a new level over the winter on all weather surfaces and if he translates that improvement back to turf he’s well handicapped considering his turf mark is 9lbs lower than his all weather mark. He has been runner up over course and distance off this sort of mark twice so he’s not completely ruled out even if he hasn’t improved. His turf form last season requires a step up though and he could be a bit too close to the early gallop for comfort here.
Lucander
An interesting one at the price. He won over course and distance last season on soft ground which gives him a 100% record at York from two runs. He was runner up in last season’s Cambridgeshire off a 1lb lower mark on good ground and returned in good form this season, finishing 2nd at Newmarket behind an enterprisingly ridden rival. The third in that race has won since. Only beat one home last time in the Royal Hunt Cup but a mile on fast ground wouldn’t have suited. He’s often held up in mid division which should be perfect from his middle draw and the easier ground and return to York should help him improve from a poor effort last time out.
Data Protection
Tends to run his best races at Newmarket or Epsom and was well below par when favourite on his only try at York. Likely to help set a strong pace and has work to do off a career high mark.
Cockalorum
In the form of his life at the moment although this is a big step up from the class 4 handicaps he’s been winning. He made all for both recent wins too and those tactics are unlikely to see him to best effect here.
Dark Pine
Proved his recent improvement wasn’t just down to all weather surfaces when winning at Chester before finding heavy ground over further at Royal Ascot too much. Not handicapped out of this off 4lb higher and could go well at a price but obviously needs to improve again in this company.
Hartswood
Has a bit of a reputation as a York specialist despite just the one win here, having also filled the places in several top handicaps here. Won last time out when getting the run of the race at Newcastle and still has a chance of landing a decent race at this course off his new mark. He’s only tried this distance once and didn’t seem to stay so would have made much more appeal in the mile handicap earlier in the card but it will be interesting to see how he takes to this trip here at York.
Victory Chime
Had limitations exposed last time out at listed level and has generally performed best at front runner friendly tracks. Much more competition for the lead here and probably not well enough handicapped.
Winter Reprise
Needs to step up massively on what he’s done this season and seems very reliant on leading early, which will almost certainly compromise his chance here.
Palavecino
Hasn’t quite matched his all weather form on turf despite not having a split mark and it’s a slight worry his best turf form seems to have come at Chester. Another that could be too close to the early gallop and doesn’t look well enough handicapped.
What’s The Story
Has a good record at York and runs in this for the fourth consecutive year. This trip seems to stretch him a little and his best chance of a win off this mark would be on fast ground over a mile here.
Sky Defender
Inconsistent and difficult to win with but has shown he can run well off this sort of mark and has strong course and distance form. Probably too reliant on getting an easy lead though which he won’t get here and needs to bounce back from a poor run.
Strait Of Hormuz
Still lightly raced and better than the bare result in both runs this season. He’s only 3lbs higher than when winning a decent handicap at Doncaster last season over this trip and didn’t seemingly stay further on his next two runs. He dropped back to this trip last time out at Epsom and although beaten 11.5 lengthsit was a day of exaggerated winning distances and Strait Of Hormuz met trouble in running and had to be snatched up. He does have form on softish ground but he’s probably better on good or better, which means the ground has probably gone slightly against him here. He’s worth watching out for on better ground though and should outrun his odds, especially if less rain falls on Saturday than is forecast.
The Verdict
A fair few of those near the head of the betting look worth taking on for reasons outlined above and although Strait Of Hormuz is very likely to outrun his odds, especially if the course doesn’t catch any more showers, he probably needs even faster ground to go close in a race of this nature.
I’m so much more confident betting on course form at York and Lucander, Fishable and Surrey Pride all have strong course and distance form to their names. The fact that Lucander is unbeaten in two runs here makes him really interesting and there are obvious reasons for him to bounce back here from a poor run but he would have appealed slightly more if he’d run just a bit better at Ascot last time. He’s still massively overpriced and worth covering though, especially with Laura Pearson riding and claiming 5lbs.
Fishable may not have won here but he’s unlucky to not have placed in both course and distance starts and will find conditions perfect here. If he’d got a clear run behind Surrey Pride last time he’d probably have finished 3rd or 4th and would be going into this a shorter price. He’s been in good form all season, is consistent and after just ten runs should still be improving a little. The only slight worry with him is being ridden too close to the pace but he’s been held up in all three visits to York (didn’t have much choice last time admittedly after missing the break).
Assuming Saturday's rain isn't enough to send the ground back to soft though SURREY PRIDE looks the most likely to go well. We’re yet to see how far he can go on good/good to soft ground and he’s proven over course and distance with his last race working out well. He’s been held back for this since and his run style is ideally suited to a course like this where he can make up ground on the bridle. The draw isn’t ideal but his run style should be.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racingfotos_54810711165.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-07-09 11:43:182021-07-09 11:43:18John Smith’s Cup 2021 Preview: Take Pride To Emerge On Top
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