Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020
Saturday's pick was...
5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG
...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...
Why?...
We start with the racecard...
...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.
That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...
... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?
Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...
...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.
With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...
- 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
- 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
- 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
- 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
- 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
- 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
- 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
- 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
- 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS