Tag Archive for: kelso horse racing trends

Sat TV Trends: 21st March 2026

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This Saturday the ITV Racing action comes from Kelso, Newbury and Bangor – with jumping all the way.

There are TEN live ITV races spread out over the three venues – where you can use our key trends and stats to help whittle down the runners.

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

1:15 – Castle Windows Newbury Anniversary Novices’ Hurdle

(GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

8/9 – Aged 5 or 6
6/9 – Finished in the top 3 last time
6/9 – Won just once over hurdles
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 – Winning favourites
Chris Gordon has trained 2 of the last 5 winners
3 of the last 4 winners ridden by a claiming jockey

1:50 – BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4

5 previous runs
5/5 – Aged between 4-6
4/5 – Carried 10-10+
4/5 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Won with exactly 11-11
1/5 – Winning favourite
Tim Vaughan won the race in 2025
Trainer SRB Crawford won the race in 2024
Trainer Tom Lacey won the race in 2023
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Philips Hobbs & Johnson White have a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil King has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:25 – BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 7 or older
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites finished first or second
8/11 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
8/11 - Won no more than 3 times over fences
7/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/11 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
6/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
2/11 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 3)
Harry Sketon has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Heltenham won the race in 2024 and 2023

3:00 - British EBF BetVictor "NH" Novices' Mares' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

11/13 - Carried 11-3 or less in weight
11/13- Won 1-2 times before
10/13 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/13 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
9/13 - Had not run at Newbury before
9/13 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/13 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/13 - Placed favourites
7/13 - Irish bred winners
6/13 - Aged 5 years-old
6/13 - Ran at Doncaster (4) or Exeter (2) last time out
5/13 - Won last time out
5/13 - winning favourites
2/13 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton

3:35 – Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (An Open National Hunt Flat Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (4-5 yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4

6/6 – Aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
5/6 – Carried 11st or more
3/6 – Trained by Harry Fry
3/6 – Winning favourites
Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 21% SR with his NH Flat runners here and also won this race in 2023

Kelso Horse Racing Trends

1:00 – BetWright Beeswing Mares’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

Just 1 previous running
2025: Lavida Adiva (Ruth Jefferson)
Trainer Nicky Richards is 14-70 (20%) hurdlers at the track

1:30 – BetWright Handicap Hurdle (Go North Cab On Target Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

Just 3 past runnings
No winning favourite
Trainers Lucinda Russell, Susan Corbett and Sue Smith have won this race before
All 3 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13
All 3 winners aged 6-8
2 of the last 3 winners aged 8
2/3 winners ridden by a conditional jockey
Starlyte won the race in 2025
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 44% SR with their hurdlers at Kelso

2:10 – BetWright Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

3 previous running
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2023 and 2024
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022
2 of the last 3 winning favourites
All 3 winners aged between 5-6 years-old
2 of the last 3 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
All 3 winners carried 10-10+
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill and AJ O’Neill are 3-9 (33%) with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:40 – BetWright Novices’ Handicap Chase (Go North Forgive ‘N Forget Series Final) (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV4

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% SR with this chasers at the track
Trainer Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore have a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ewan Whillans is only 1-28 (4%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Tristan Durrell is 3-6 (50%) over fence at this track

Bangor Horse Racing Trends

3:20 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 3 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 past runnings
All 3 winners aged 7
All 3 winners carried 10-13 to 11-3
All 3 winners 9/2 or shorter
2/3 winners fav (or joint fav)
The Four Sixes won this race last season
Both winners carried between 10-13 and 11-3
Trainer Olly Murphy won the race in 2025
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2024
Trainer Donald McCain won the race in 2023
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies have a 67% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

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Sat TV Trends: 6th April 2024

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A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Kelso to take in four races, plus they are also at Kempton for three contests on the AW. 

We are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races. Use these stats to put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.

KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV

18/19 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/19 – Came from the top three in the betting
17/19 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/19 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
13/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/19 – Rated between 90-102
12/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Unplaced in their last race
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Had run at Kempton before
6/19 – Rated 96 or lower
5/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/19 – Won last time out
7 of the last 15 favourites have won
Trainer Marco Botti has won 3 of the last 9
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 7
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

2:40 Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m3f ITV

18/19 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/19 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/19 – Rated between 89 and 99
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/19 – Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
3/19 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

3:15 Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

12/12 - Won no more than 5 times
11/12 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 - Had won over 1m6f or further
9/12 - Didn’t win last time out
9/12 - Had run at Kempton before
9/12 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/12 - Only won between 1-3 times before
7/12 - Rated between 82-89
7/12  - Had won at Kempton in the past
6/12 - Favourites that finished 2nd
2/12 - Trained by Roger Charlton
2/12 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/12 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark
1/12 - Winning favourites

 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV)

1:50 – Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV

9/9 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
8/9 – Aged between 7-10 years-old
8/9 – Won between 2-5 times over hurdles
8/9 – Favourites placed in top 3
7/9  - Irish (5) or French (2) bred
7/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/9 - Had run at Kelso before
5/9 – Ridden by a conditional (claiming) jockey
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

2:25 – Belhaven Brewery Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 2 past runnings
Trainers Sue Smith & Susan Corbett have won the race before
Both winners ridden by a conditional jockey
Both winners carried 10-13 or less in weight
No winning favourite
Les’s Legacy won the race in 2023
Trainer Donald McCain has a 19% record their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 18% record their hurdlers at the track
Trainer  Philip Kirby is just 1 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Henry Brooke is just 3-from-60 with riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Sam Coltherd is just 2-from-62 with riding over hurdles at the track

3:00– Paxtons For Kverneland Machinery & Genuine Spares Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV

7/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/8 – Won between 0-3 times over fences before
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
6/8 – Had won over at least 3m before
6/8 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Had run at Kelso before
1/8 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 3 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
Elvis Mail won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1

3:35 – Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

2 previous running
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2023
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022
Both winners favourites
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 42% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ruth Jefferson has a 19% record with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Philip Kirby is just 1 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track

 

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Sat TV Trends: 25th March 2023

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A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Kelso to take in four races, plus they are also at Newbury to take in three more jumps races. While ITV racing are also covering the lucrative Dubai World Cup for the first time.

As always, here at GeeGeez are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV4)

1:30 - Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4

2 previous run
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:05 – Get A Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV4

8/8 – Aged 7 or older
7/8 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Favourites finished first or second
6/8 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/8  - Won no more than 3 times over fences
5/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
3/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Winning favourites

 

2:40 - British EBF BetVictor "NH" Novices' Mares' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

9/10 - Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/10 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/10 - Won 1-2 times before
8/10 - Had not run at Newbury before
8/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
7/10 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/10 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/10 - Placed favourites
6/10 - Irish bred winners
5/10 - Aged 5 years-old
5/10 - Ran at Doncaster (3) or Exeter (2) last time out
4/10 - Won last time out
4/10 - winning favourites
2/10 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
2/10 – Trained by Noel Williams
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV4)

1:50 – BetVictor Go North Cab On Target Target Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

Just 1 past running
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 19% record their chasers at the track
Trainer Mike Smith has just a 3% (1-33) with his chasers at the track

2:25 – Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV4

8/8 – Aged between 7-10 years-old
8/8 – Won between 2-5 times over hurdles
8/8 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/8 – Favourites placed in top 3
6/8  - Irish (4) or French (2) bred
6/8 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 Had run at Kelso before
4/8 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
3/8 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/8 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1

3:00 – BetVictor Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

1 previous running
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race last year
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 36% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track

3:35 – Make Your Best Bet At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV4

6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
6/7 – Had won over at least 3m before
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 0-3 times over fences before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/7 – Had run at Kelso before
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 6/1

MEYDAN HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV4)

4:35 – Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airline (Group 1) (Dirt) (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Previous Group/Grade 1 or 2 winners
12/12 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
10/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/12 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
9/12 – Officially rated between 119-123
8/12 – Didn’t win their last race
8/12 – Aged 5 or older
7/12– Had won at the track before
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 - Owned by Godolphin (9 wins in total)
5/12 – Returned a double-figure price
5/12 – Came from stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
4/12 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (9 wins in total)
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 - Ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the Dubai World Cup 4 times
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Thunder Snow (2019/20) is the only past back-to-back winner

 

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Sat TV Trends: 29th February 2020

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We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)

**NOTE** - Newbury's Saturday card has been called off due to a waterlogged track

2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

3.15– William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 9 or younger
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 4th or better last time out
6/7 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Favourites place in the top two
4/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/7 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Aged 9 years-old
2/7 – Won last time out

2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
5/8 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/8 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/8 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/6 – Favourites placed in the top 2
5/6 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/6 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/6 – Irish bred

 

3.35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV4

15/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/15 – Aged 9 or older
10/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Rated 131 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/15 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017

 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.45 – William Hill Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4

10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/11 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Winning favourite
3/11 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/11 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

 

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