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Stat of the Day, 10th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left to challenge, led just inside final furlong, hung right closing stages, ran on to win comfortably by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Kinks @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £9238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding hasn't quite scaled the heights expected of him so far, having been entered into races at Gr 2 & Listed class last season, but does at least come here off the back of a decent run LTO in a big field (14 ran) Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 23 days ago when he was third, beaten by just a neck and a short head under jockey Nicola Currie.

I've nothing bad to say about Nicola, I think she's very talented, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa, in her place, on a track where he has been very successful in the past is a positive move for me, as is the drop in class. In fact Silvestre comes here in decent touch having ridden 13 winners from his last 68 rides over the previous fortnight and boasts a record of better than 2 in 9 at this venue since 2010 over trips up to 1m2f, winning 55 of 246 (22.4% SR) for 87.3pts (+35.5% ROI) profit.

Trainer Mick Channon also does pretty well here too, independently of the jockey's successes and over the last five seasons, Mick's runners here are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 75.6pts (+145.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at 6-60 days since last run : 13/41 (31.7%) for 88.6pts (+211.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 : 8/20 (40%) for 12.22pts (+61.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 65.6pts (+234.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 7/15 946.7%) for 49.9pts (+332.5%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 7/16 (43.8%) for 34.4pts (+214.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 26.5pts (+126.2%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.3pts (+162.3%)
  • and class droppers are 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 29.2pts (+243.5%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kinks @ 7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway on inside over 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left to challenge, led just inside final furlong, hung right closing stages, ran on to win comfortably by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinks @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £9238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding hasn't quite scaled the heights expected of him so far, having been entered into races at Gr 2 & Listed class last season, but does at least come here off the back of a decent run LTO in a big field (14 ran) Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 23 days ago when he was third, beaten by just a neck and a short head under jockey Nicola Currie.

I've nothing bad to say about Nicola, I think she's very talented, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa, in her place, on a track where he has been very successful in the past is a positive move for me, as is the drop in class. In fact Silvestre comes here in decent touch having ridden 13 winners from his last 68 rides over the previous fortnight and boasts a record of better than 2 in 9 at this venue since 2010 over trips up to 1m2f, winning 55 of 246 (22.4% SR) for 87.3pts (+35.5% ROI) profit.

Trainer Mick Channon also does pretty well here too, independently of the jockey's successes and over the last five seasons, Mick's runners here are 13 from 52 (25% SR) for 75.6pts (+145.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at 6-60 days since last run : 13/41 (31.7%) for 88.6pts (+211.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 : 8/20 (40%) for 12.22pts (+61.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 65.6pts (+234.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 7/15 946.7%) for 49.9pts (+332.5%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 7/16 (43.8%) for 34.4pts (+214.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 26.5pts (+126.2%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.3pts (+162.3%)
  • and class droppers are 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 29.2pts (+243.5%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kinks @ 7/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.00 Newton Abbot : Kingston Mimosa @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Mid-division, dropped towards rear 7th, ridden to chase clear leaders after 5 out, stayed on to take modest 3rd after last, no chance with front pair)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.20 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Good to Soft ground worth £7698 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won four of seven starts on the Flat over the past twelve months and defied a 6-month layoff when winning at Chester five days ago over 1m2.5f. He's up 5lbs for that win, but with 7lb claimer Scott MCullagh now in the saddle, he's effectively 2lbs better off and Scott did ride him to victory at Windsor last August on the only previous occasion they've teamed up.

Trainer Mick Channon doesn't send many runners up to Carlisle (perhaps the near 600-mile trip is a factor?), but those that have come here and have been deemed by the market to at least have a chance have fared pretty well.

Since 2008, Mick's visitors to Carlisle that have been sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.8pts (+46.7% ROI) and so that I'm not leaning on old data to prop up my pick, the last four seasons show 7 winners from 21 (33.3% SR) for 11.35pts (+54% ROI), from which the following are relevant today...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.21pts (+83.6%)
  • for prizes in excess of £4,000 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.62pts (+114.7%)
  • males are 4/12 (33.3%) for 9.14pts (+76.2%)
  • those aged 5 and over : 3/5 (60%) for 10.68pts (+213.6%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.62pts (+107.8%)
  • in handicaps : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.75pts (+108.3%)
  • LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.98pts (+232.7%)
  • and those who ran in the previous 10 days are 2/4 (50%) for 6.96pts (+174%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.40 Hexham : Glinger Flame @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led on bit approaching last, soon shaken up and clear, winning very easily by some 18 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

An in-form 4 yr old gelding (2311 last 4 runs) steps up in trip aiming to complete a hat-trick for trainer Mick Channon.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively short, simple and hopefully sweet, based around the fact that...

...since the start of 2011, Mick Channon's horses racing over 1m6f and beyond on the All-Weather are 14 from 68 (20.6% SR) for profits of 28.5pts at an ROI of 41.9% with an A/E of 1.32 and and IV of 1.81 (A/E and IV's north of 1 are good) and this simple approach has been profitable in all bar one year of the quoted timeframe.

As usual, my headline stat will contain various relevant angles at play on the day and from these 68 runners...

  • those competing for a prize of less than £5,000 are 13/61 (21.3%) for 28.4pts (+46.6%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 13/50 (26%) for 38.56pts (+77.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 10/47 (21.3%) for 22.3pts (+47.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 9/1 : 12/45 (26.7%) for 35.3pts (+78.4%)
  • males are 11/45 (24.4%) for 30pts (+66.6%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days earlier are 9/39 (23.1%) for 31.9pts (+81.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 9/34 (26.5%) for 11.8pts (+34.6%)
  • from March to May : 9/25 (36%) for 20.8pts (+83.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.1pts (+61.2%)
  • LTO winners are 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.7pts (+179%)
  • and in March : 4/10 (40%) for 17.85pts (+178.5%)

...whilst 3/4 yr olds sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 when aiming for a prize of less than £5k on Polytrack are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 26.5pts (+204.1% ROI), an angled that is 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.3pts (+276.8%) over the last two years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Skybet just before 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he's having a good year on Mick Channon's horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today...

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton...

...and from the above...Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: A Jungle in the Bungle?

About a couple of months ago, I was at Mick Channon’s West Ilsley stables, watching his most forward two-year-olds doing a brisk canter up the hill, writes Tony Stafford. At that stage Mick possibly hadn’t got all their identities a hundred per cent to memory even if younger son and assistant, Jack, had.

So as the string started back down the incline, he called to one of the Indian lads: “What’s that one by?” which prompted the reply “Jungleinthebungle!” Of course he meant Bungleinthejungle, a name I was no more than vaguely aware of, despite the fact that it was only six years ago the son of Exceed and Excel won four of his nine runs as a two-year-old.

After laughter all round, I gave away my imperfect memory asking, “Who trained that?” Mick put me in my place saying: “I did. He could be champion first season sire!”

Needless to say, the malapropism has stuck and the chestnut colt out of the Oasis Dream mare Princess Banu was duly named Jungleinthebungle. Casting my eye down the 13-strong field in Saturday’s first-day juvenile feature, the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster, the presence of three of that young stallion’s progeny was an indication of likely precocity.

The fact that none of the trio is from West Ilsley, or that any of them could do better than Carey Street’s sixth place, does not invalidate Channon’s prediction. When I spoke briefly to the stable on Friday in response to an enquiry about the Pour Moi – Ms Cordelia filly that Mick trains for the boss, it might have been an idea to ask his expectations for the Clodovil colt, Izzer, who was about to represent the stable.

The following afternoon, having watched from the Newbury racecourse betting shop as first Addeybb won the Lincoln in a hack canter and then witnessed Izzer land a gamble, allegedly from a morning 14-1 down to 4’s, that lack of  inquisitiveness was a source of real frustration.

Mick has three by the sire, whose biggest wins were in the Molecomb at Goodwood, where he was a 14-1 shot despite already having two victories in his locker. Then, after narrowly going down to Sir Prancelot in the Flying Childers, he got the better of subsequent Group 1 winner Garswood in the Cornwallis (Group 3) at Ascot.

Unlike Garswood, Bungleinthejungle failed to train on and stands at €5,000 at Rathasker stud in Ireland. Izzer, bought from Tattersall’s Book 3 sale by Gill Richardson, Channon’s long-term sales advisor, for only 11,000gns, was named in the trainer’s ownership in the recently-published Horses in Training 2018 book, which I collected from Rupert Mackeson’s Marlborough Bookshop’s stall outside the Newbury weighing room on Saturday. He had been passed on to David Hutt and Chris Wright by the time he turned out at Doncaster. I hope Mick got a nice turn on the deal.

Your first 30 days for just £1

The arrival of the book – I had usually collected a copy during Cheltenham, but having left the first one in a box minutes after buying it last year, necessitating a second, I waited a week. There’s nothing quite like the anticipation of discovering which stables are thriving while others are doing less well, but the tendency of quite a few to be reticent takes away some of the validity of the publication.

Trainers such as Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon are completely up front, understandably perhaps with their teams well above 200 – in Hannon’s case 261; Johnston a more modest 221.

For several seasons, Richard Fahey has had comfortably the biggest number in his ever-expanding stable, but disguises it by neglecting to add his two-year-olds to the 119 listed aged three and above. This season, for the first time, John Gosden has also gone down that route, owning up to 126 older horses, but keeping the identity of the youngsters to himself.

It is unlikely that we’ll be seeing too many of that age from Clarehaven much before May, but since the Godolphin shake-up which led to the departure of John Ferguson last year, Gosden has been the prime figure for Godolphin at the sales. It must be highly likely that some of the more expensive acquisitions might end up with him rather than Saeed bin Suroor or Charlie Appleby.

Fahey, predictably, was quickly off the mark on Saturday with one winner, and two more yesterday from the 17 runners he had on Town Moor. He also sent a handful over to Naas for their opening turf meeting of the year, but one third place was the best he could manage.

It will probably take Roger Teal at least a couple of months to send out 22 Flat runners, but he was off the mark on turf at the first attempt before Fahey’s last-race success. That came with 50-1 shot (100-1 on the Tote) High Acclaim in the Spring Mile, consolation race to the Lincoln. His winning time was barely half a second slower than Addeybb’s an hour later and from his present low mark, High Acclaim can continue to provide further proof of his trainer’s talent.

Last week I touched on the advertising benefits of sponsoring jockeys, and there is no doubt that the highly-consistent David Probert, who rode High Acclaim and will be continuing his blossoming partnership with Teal’s Tip Two Win in the 2,000 Guineas, is value for money with geegeez.co.uk’s support. Tip Two Win remains one of the few possibles outside the mainstream stables for Classic success after two sparkling wins in Qatar over the winter.

The early positioning of Easter does give some continuity to Flat racing, providing a bridge from Doncaster to the Craven. As well as the well-endowed All-Weather Championships meeting at Lingfield on Good Friday, Newcastle (rather than Musselburgh, which waits a day) and Bath also provide opportunities.

Then on Saturday, three more Flat meetings, Musselburgh’s turf being supplemented by Kempton’s all-weather card featuring the Rosebery Handicap and Magnolia Stakes, both £50k guaranteed affairs. That evening’s racing at Chelmsford might tempt holiday fans if the east wind stays away from its wide-open spaces.

And jumping enthusiasts still have a fair bit to look forward to, with Aintree and Sandown’s season-ending fixtures to come. Before that, on Saturday, Haydock stages a seven-race card, the first six races of which are Challenger Series Finals over all disciplines and distances, three each chases and hurdles. All six Challenger races carry £50,000 total prizemoney. It will be interesting later today to see which trainers have kept some resources back for these tasty opportunities.

Finally, another book that has recently come my way is the well-received latest effort by Jamie Reid, winner of the William Hill Sports Book of the Year in 2013 for “Doped”. “Monsieur X” is the tale of the audacious French aristo, Patrice des Moutis, who courted the acquaintance of many of French racing’s leading figures, in his quest to make a fortune from the Tierce bet from the late 1950’s to the 1970’s.

My friend Prince Pippy, who was the Paris correspondent for The Racehorse when I edited that late lamented publication, knew Patrice well. “He would park his car right outside the main entrance at Longchamp, Chantilly and even Royal Ascot and Newmarket, and everyone who was anyone would come up and talk to him, often accepting the glass of champagne he always offered,” he said.

Reid has, as ever, skilfully woven his tale, and the story of de Moutis’ battles with the authorities, fully chronicled in the French papers of the day, as they tried to stop his regular big wins, will leave older racing devotees – no names – with a deep nostalgia for former times.

Monsieur X, by Jamie Reid, Bloomsbury, £18, hardback.

- Tony Stafford

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

8.25 Sandown - Flight of Fantasy @ 5/1 BOG still to run Result/report to follow later.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Last pick before my holiday (you'll be well looked after by Steve!) is based around the following...

A 4 yr old gelding coming here on a hat-trick after wins 16 days apart firstly over 1m2f at Chepstow before a step up in trip to win over this course and distance a fortnight ago and whilst this certainly isn't the Derby, past knowledge of this quirky track is always useful and he's the only one in this race to have previously won here.

Trainer Mick Channon has had good results with his non-festival handicappers here on the Downs, with 14 winners from 88 (15.9% SR) since 2009, yielding 25.8pts (+29.3% ROI) of level stakes profit, including the following relevant data subsets...

  • at odds fof 8/1 and shorter : 12/56 (21.4%) for 20.7pts (+37%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 11/47 (23.4%) for 55.95pts (+119%)
  • at Class 5 : 7/35 (20%) for 24.2pts (+69.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/18 (22.2%) for 8.4pts (+46.6%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 6/17 (35.3%) for 24.1pts (+141.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.66pts (+104.4%)

On top of the above, Mick Channon's handicappers returning to the scene of a past course and distance triumph and were winners anywhere last time out are 9/39 (23.1% SR) for 18pts (+46% ROI) since 2011, from which...

  • those priced at 6/4 to 9/1 are 9/35 (25.7%) for 22pts (+62.7%)
  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 8/32 925%) for 22.18pts (+69.3%)
  • C&D winners LTO are 7/27 (25.9%) for 20.7pts (+76.6%)
  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.3pts (+44.8%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/11 (45.5%) for 22.1pts (+201%)
  • and here at Epsom : 2/5 (40%) for 10.1pts (+201.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ya Jammeel @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Epsom...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: Looking Forward, via Memory Lane

The weather men have never forgotten October 1987 and the unexpected hurricane that felled half the trees in the South of England, writes Tony Stafford. The Dewhurst Stakes had to be postponed by a day at Newmarket and I still recall the gaps in the treeline on the last leg from Six Mile Bottom, past Lordship Stud up to the roundabout by the National Stud and July Course when I drove along the next day.

Now every hint of a breath of wind from the Atlantic is viewed with utter suspicion by the forecasters. Last Thursday’s wee drop of Doris did cause some inconvenience in terms of wind speed, but less structural damage - nothing like what was predicted.

I spent the previous morning visiting two Berkshire stables I’d never previously seen. First it was to Beechdown Farm, Lambourn, owned and built by John Francome and professional home to Clive Cox throughout his now 18 seasons’ training. Then it was on, after a last-minute call, to West Ilsley, base for pretty much all of this century for Mick Channon.

The boss, Ray Tooth, has three “new” trainers for this season’s two-year-old intake, with both Channon and Cox joining the roster, along with Chris Wall. When asked whether he would like a two-year-old, Mick Channon said he’d be delighted. “I had one horse a while ago for Ray, and he wasn’t much good”. We’re hoping for better.

The Cox visit was pre-planned, its object to see the progress of the home-bred colt, called Nelson River, by Mount Nelson out of the winning mare, I Say. He’d had two easy days before Wednesday after possibly getting cast, so he did a canter limited to a short burst up the straight, but satisfied his onlooking trainer as we raced alongside in the jeep.

The rest of that batch of juveniles – “as a group they’re the best I’ve had”, said Clive – went a little further and Nelson River, a big, nice-moving colt, would hopefully have been back with them by the weekend.

Cox proudly showed me the private gallops of the 260-acre site developed with such skill by Francome, departed from our screens but in no way rueful, according to his tenant. “John is never happier than when driving a digger around the place.”

With Profitable now in Godolphin colours and My Dream Boat and Zonderland also back for another season, Cox must be hopeful of beating last season’s tally of 65 wins and £1.5 million in prize money. Harry Angel, easy winner of the Mill Reef Stakes on only his second start, is the main hope among a nice group of three-year-olds.

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Wednesday’s work was undertaken in the expectation of a light morning, probably in the spacious indoor arena, when Doris arrived on Thursday, so plenty was done. I was soon heading back east and while Jenni Tait in Mick Channon’s stable reported neither Mick (in Dubai, basking after Opal Tiara’s Group 1 win the previous week) or Michael junior, on the way to watch a runner at Doncaster, was there, they would happily entertain this surprise visitor.

So it was to West Ilsley, the stables that were to become the new home of Major Dick Hern the year after he won Classic success with my first equine hero, Hethersett, in the 1962 St Leger, when private trainer to Major Lionel Holliday.

For me, still at school, it was the ultimate betrayal, Hethersett being left to languish under the nominal care of head lad, S J Meaney, while actually having his campaign directed by the irascible Yorkshireman. Hern, taking over from Jack Colling, even had the effrontery of saddling Darling Boy to beat Hethersett in his comeback race, the Jockey Club Stakes, in 1963.

Jenni and her office colleague Gill Hedley seemed surprised I’d never previously been to West Ilsley, but both were understandably still bubbling over Opal Tiara’s big win in face of major Godolphin opposition in that Group 1.

Gill was part breeder of the filly with Channon. From the least promising beginnings, the unraced mare Zarafa was sent to Rathasker stud’s stallion, Thousand Words, a Juddmonte-bred quadruple winner, for Barry Hills and latterly in California for the late Bobby Frankel.

The resulting filly went through Ascot sales as a yearling, going unsold at 1,800gns, but after showing plenty of ability at two, attracted Qatar Racing, who privately acquired a half-share. Last year she made great progress, winning a Group 3 at Goodwood, but Qatar wanted to cash in, and she was sold at December sales last backend for 230,000gns.

Happily Gill stayed in and she said: “We have new partners who bought into her and they are delighted, as we all are”. No wonder, how many people breed Group 1 winners? If she does get sold later in her career, the numbers are sure to multiply once again.

Having enjoyed a classy filter coffee and luxury biscuits while talking to the ladies, we made the short 20-metre walk to see Telltale, another home-bred, already gelded, by Monsieur Bond  out of Yarn. ‘Mum’ was a strapping filly who was always placed but never won, coupling natural ability along with a wind problem.

When he arrived, the initial idea was to put him into one of the normal boxes, but as Mick junior said: “He’s so tall, he couldn’t go in there, so it had to be one of the big ones.”

I understood from Michael it was formerly Youmzain’s box, but Jenni said: “No, that’s two along.” So here he was, the gentle giant, impossible to miss with his big white face. So after admiring him, I noticed a plaque outside the box, proclaiming that it had been Halicarnassus’ domicile. That high-class Channon performer is now a stallion in Turkey.

Underneath, though, there was a larger plaque in bronze, with a single word scratched underneath – “Henbit”, the Derby winner. The names on the plaque, though, might give Telltale something to live up to. I searched my memory since driving away, but came up with only four of the five names.

In reverse order they were: Little Wolf, winner of the Ascot Gold Cup; Minster Son, St Leger; and then Nashwan, 2,000 Guineas and Derby; and shockingly, the great Brigadier Gerard. That supreme champion, winner of 17 of 18 career starts at the start of my career in racing journalism, according to his only ever jockey, Joe Mercer, was sick with mucus pouring down his nose, when losing to Derby winner Roberto in the first Benson and Hedges Gold Cup (now Juddmonte International) at York.

The Brigadier, later very disappointing as a stallion, was the last horse to beat his contemporary, the equally-talented Mill Reef, in the 2,000 Guineas. Most racing historians reckon that field, with My Swallow only third, was possibly the best ever for the Newmarket Classic.

So I enjoyed a wonderful walk down Memory Lane, but it was not long before the mood was replaced by frustration at Lingfield on Saturday. While the racing was excellent, with the featured Winter Derby winner Convey adding further lustre to Opal Tiara, who beat him at Goodwood, the absence of any betting shop, thanks to the ongoing dispute between Ladbrokes, Corals and Betfred, and the racecourses, diminished the experience.

You could catch sight of races from elsewhere, where allowed by the direction of the course TV feed with replays, previews and the like interrupting the middle of major races elsewhere. Betting, though, was limited to the Tote with the three main Ladbrokes points uninhabited and the screens blanked out. I bet many of those who paid £25 for Premier admission wished they’d stayed at home.

I was interested in Jack Quinlan’s mount Sir Note at Kempton and noticed it was around 4’s, not bad, on the machine. When he won - yes, Racing Post, Jack Quinlan was riding! - the SP was 7-1. That was annoying for ordinary racegoers without apps or Betfair accounts. This is one disagreement that needs ending fast.

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2015

Monday's race developed into something of 4-horse race and despite leading for a large chunk of the contest, Passover didn't have enough in reserve to hold on and was eventually the last home of that leading quartet.

He was beaten by 4 lengths at the same 5/2 price we'd taken and was a disappointing end to another tremendous month that saw us hit 10 winners from 24 for 24.58pts profit. That's eight profitable months so far this year!

A full monthly breakdown of SotD is available here and a quick glance at that shows that in 2015, we are 65/193 (33.7% SR) for 105.55pts (+54.7% ROI) and in the last three months the figures are 30/72 (41.67% SR) for 67.07pts (+93.2% ROI)!

That, of course, is the past and September is a new month, so it would be nice to kick off with a winner in the...

3.35 Epsom :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established.

If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

Unfortunately, it's not a great day stats-wise, but one that I think could be the answer in Mick Channon's 3yr old gelding, Harlequin Striker, who will be ridden by Charlie Bishop and is priced at 100/30 BOG in at least three places to land back to back wins within 3 weeks.

Not all jockeys are able to keep their horses on a true line here at Epsom, but Charlie Bishop does seem to do pretty well here and is 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 38.8pts (+323.3% ROI) profit on this track over he last two seasons. He's 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 24.3pts (+303.7% ROI) on horses priced at 7/1 and shorter, of which handicappers are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.1pts (+235% ROI).

Trainer Mick Channon has also tasted success here and since 2009, his runners are 19/152 (12.5% SR) for 13pts (+8.6% ROI) here on the Downs. Those priced at 8/1 or shorter are 15/83 (18.1% SR) for 12.2pts (+14.7% ROI), whilst those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 (25% SR) for 14.1pts (+70.5% ROI) with all 5 winners coming from the 16 runners (31.25% SR) priced at 8/1 and shorter for profits of 18.1pts (+113.1% ROI).

In handicaps here with horses priced at 13/2 and shorter the Bishop/Channon partnership is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 10.9pts at an ROI of 99.1%.

As for the horse, Harlequin Striker, he is 1 from 3 on this track, having won here almost a year ago over course and distance on the first occasion that Charlie Bishop rode him (they're now 2/6 together). The horse is 3/10 at 7/7.5f, 1 from 1 on soft ground and has won at a higher grade than this (also under Charlie Bishop!).

Harlequin Striker has finished 112 when sent off shorter than 4/1 and with his three career wins coming off marks of 75 (twice) and 78, today's OR of 77 looks promising. He has won 2 of 3 starts in the month of September and is three from nine when turned out 9 to 29 days (19 today) since his last run.

He was a winner at Ffos Las last time out and now returns to Epsom for a crack at landing a second course and distance win for Mick Channon, whose runners returning the scene of a CD win after a win anywhere LTO are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+68.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) for 16.6pts (+166% ROI), whilst 7f runners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 13.6pts (+169.6% ROI).

So, that's where we're at for today : no big blockbuster stat to rely on, but a series of smaller stats that when taken together suggest a run for our money at the very least from Harlequin Striker.

I'm going with Hills for my 100/30 BOG bet today, but to see which other firms are matching that price...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2015

Cape Victoria was disappointing at Brighton on Thursday afternoon, it has to be said. I thought Edward Greatrex had her in just the right position, tracking the leaders ready for a run, but when asked to give a bit more 2f from home, there wasn't much response from the filly.

She looked decidedly one-paced on the run-in and in the end, she finished a good 5.5 lengths off the pace in 6th of 9 runners. Even her jockeys 5lb claim wasn't enough to counteract top weight and her recent exertions and I'd assume she'll rest for a while now.

No rest for me, though, as I now look for a winner for you from Friday's cards and I've gone for an unlikely sort of contest for SotD in the ...

6.15 Newmarket:

Which is a 7f, Class 5 seller featuring six lightly raced 2 yr olds and a couple of debutants and whilst it's not the normal kind of race I put up for this feature, I think there's an angle or two to be explored around my 7/2 BOG selection, Sixties Pilgrim.

Firstly, she's a daughter of one of my favourite runners from the mid-2000's, Sixties Icon, but that has nothing to do with her selection other than a bit of rare sentimentality on behalf of this old cynic here. She is, more pertinently/relevantly, trained by Mick Channon of the twirling arm goalscoring celebration and Mr Channon's record here at Newmarket isn't bad at all, despite not having too many runners here.

And since 2009, his Newmarket runners priced at 5/2 to 13/2 are 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 13.7pts (+52.8% ROI) with those competing at trips of 6-7 furlongs winning 5 of 20 (25% SR) for 11.6pts (+58% ROI).

He also has a decent record in these seller races and since 2008, the market seems to a good indicator of his runners' chances, as those priced at 4/1 or shorter have won 40 of 104 (38.5% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 20.6pts (+19.8% ROI) and to show I'm not leaning/relying on old data to support my case, his record in sellers since the start of 2014 is 89 from 14 (68.3% SR) for 14.7pts (+105.1% ROI).

This is just Sixties Pilgrim's second outing to date, having been beaten by 8.5 lengths on debut when finishing 7th of 14 at Leicester nine days ago. She wasn't expected to do much that day, according to the market as she was sent off at 28/1, but she certainly wasn't disgraced and is sure to come on for the run and will benefit from having had recent raceday experience.

I'd expect improvement from her anyway, as Mick Channon's horses do tend to come on for having made their debut and under certain circumstances, there's money to be made from these inexperienced runners!

Since 2009, Mick Channon's Flat runners making their second start, having failing to make the first three home on debut and were beaten by 2 to 10 lengths, then went on to win second time out on 21 of 123 occasions whe priced in the very broad 6/4 to 14/1 price range. This 17.1% strike rate has, so far, yielded level stakes profits of 44.4pts at an ROI of 36.1%.

In the context of today's race, those 123 runners can be broken down as follows...

  • 2yr olds : 20/113 (17.7% SR) for 51.4pts (+45.5% ROI)
  • females : 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+42.4% ROI)
  • 2yo females : 10/57 (17.5% SR) for 32.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • 2yo females @ Class 5 : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 34.2pts (+155.4% ROI)

Sixties Pilgrim's breeding suggests that a step up to 7f won't be a problem as she's likely to need futher in the future and although I don't bet in sellers too often, I think we've an excellent chance of cashing in a 7/2 BOG bet on Sixties Pilgrim today. I went with Bet365 at 9pm and the price was still there at 11.15pm on Thursday evening with a couple of their rivals offering 100/30 BOG.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2015

I always try to put a positive outlook on the previous SotD runner, regardless of result, but I'm really struggling here!

Neutron Bomb was just poor, well beaten and eventually trailed home last of nine runners and we didn't even beat SP, which was the same 6/1 as I'd taken/advised.

I haven't got the time or the energy to attempt to find somethnig nice about the run and my dear old gran used to tell me to say nothing if I couldn't say anything nice, so I'll move swiftly on to Wednesday's...

2.50 Wolverhampton:

Same venue as yesterday, but a totally different race. This is a Class 5 handicap over 1m6f, where my shilling is on Mick Channon's 4 yr old filly Stoneham who is currently priced at 5/1 BOG to beat her older rivals here.

Now, some of my posts for SotD are quite long and contain some relatively complicated microsystems, but I'm going to keep it relatively short, simple and hopefully sweet here!

Mick Channon's record at Wolverhampton since the start of 2012 is decent with 28 winners from 148 (18.9% SR) for 46.6pts (+31.5% ROI) profit, broken down as follows...

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 27/141 (19.2% SR) for 45.1pts (+31.9% ROI)
  • Handicappers are 16/80 (20% SR) for 57.3pts (+71.7% ROI)
  • Horses ridden by Charlie Bishop are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 53.5pts (+205.6% ROI)
  • Those running beyond 1m4f are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 41.2pts (+343.1% ROI)

In class 4 to 6 handicaps Mick's horses are 15/73 (20.6% SR) for 55.7pts (+76.3% ROI) profit with Charlie Bishop riding 5 winners from 17 (29.4% SR) for 35.5pts (+208.6% ROI)

Stoneham is a horse in form, having finished 32212231 in eight starts this year, she has won twice on this tapeta surface and is 3221 here at Wolverhampton in 2015.

She likes to be held up off the pace for a later run and with three confirmed front runners in the field, the door could be left open for a finisher, especially one with Stoneham's stamina: she was a winner in a 2m hurdle last time out and has already won on this track over 16.5f, so I've no reservations about her not having something left late on.

She also finished 12231 in her last 5 runs going left handed and she's 32212 the last five times Charlie Bishop has ridden her, so conditions look favourable here as does a mark of 60, which might be a little generous.

And that's about it!

Other than to say that you should all be able to get on at 5/1 BOG, because there are currently at least 8 bookies offering that price, as seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Doncaster Trainer Stats:

Lanigan

David Lanigan Does Well At Donny!

Decent cards up at Doncaster this Friday and Saturday, with the Racing Post Trophy taking centre stage – We highlight four yards with excellent track stats on Town Moor, plus a few big stables you might want to avoid. Read more

Doncaster Trainer Stats – St Leger Meeting

dONNY NEWNEW

It's a Big Week On Town Moor.......

This week (Weds 11th-Sat 14th  Sept 2013) sees the four day Doncaster St Leger Meeting get underway – and to help you find a few winners Andy Newton highlights five stables that have fantastic record at the track, while there are also three leading yards that don’t do as well as you might think with their Town Moor runners…… Read more

Glorious Goodwood Trainer Stats

Glorious-GoodwoodAhead of this week’s 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting Andy Newton’s got 3 stables that do well at the track and 3 not so well…… Read more

Sat TV Trends: 28th July 2012


If you like your trends we've got every LIVE C4 race covered this Saturday from York, Ascot and Newmarket..... Read more