Tag Archive for: Mick Channon

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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