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Bahrain Pride part of smart 12-strong entry for Mill Reef Stakes

Bahrain Pride is one of 12 contenders for the Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

Simon and Ed Crisford’s colt is unbeaten in two starts to date, having followed up a debut victory at Windsor with a Listed triumph in the EBF Ripon Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy.

The Kodiac colt looks set for a step up to Group Two class this weekend – and could be joined by stablemate Legal Attack, who won on his only previous appearance at Newmarket.

Mick Channon could saddle Group Three winner Cairn Gorm, who lost his unbeaten record when finishing down the field in last month’s Prix Morny at Deauville.

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Jack Channon, assistant to his father, said: “The horse is in great form and has been training well since his last run at Deauville.

“He lost the race in the stalls in the Prix Morny, but we have put a line through it and are still confident he is a high-class horse.

“He will do his final piece of work on Wednesday and we will decide whether he will go to the Mill Reef on Saturday or head straight to the Middle Park. Wherever he goes, we’re confident of a big run.”

The highest-rated horse in the field is Archie Watson’s Devilwala, with the Haydock winner having found only Minzaal too strong in the Gimcrack Stakes at York on his second start.

Marcus Tregoning’s Goodwood scorer Alkumait, Clive Cox’s Sandown winner First Edition, the Richard Fahey-trained Prix Morny third Rhythm Master and Roger Varian’s recent Doncaster sales race winner Line Of Departure also feature.

Eleven sprinters are in contention for the Group Three Dubai International Airport World Trophy.

Familiar names in the mix for the five-furlong contest include Equilateral – not beaten far into sixth place in Sunday’s Flying Five at the Curragh – Tis Marvellous, Moss Gill and Lazuli.

Addeybb is the potential star attraction in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup – formerly The Arc Trial.

A dual Group One winner in Australia earlier in the year, the Pivotal gelding was last seen chasing home Lord North in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Should he step up to a mile and three furlongs this weekend, he could be taken on by Mark Johnston’s Elarqam, Andrew Balding’s Fox Chairman and Roger Charlton’s Extra Elusive.

The latter would be bidding for a third straight win at Group Three level following recent strikes in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock and the Winter Hill at Windsor.

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Goodwood : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Single @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3 Flat Maiden Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

As trainer Mick Channon has the C1 and C5 icons by his name and is highlighted in the Trainer Stats report and also one of my own saved angles, it makes sense to focus on his record at this venue for today's piece.

Obviously his runner here yet to win a race, but the 3 yr old filly has made the frame in five of her eight starts today and comes here to race in what I'll hopefully show are favourable conditions...

...as Mick Channon's runners here at Ponty are 17 from 72 (23.6% SR) for 72.22pts (+100.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2015 season, including the following of relevance today...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 85.22pts (+144.5%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 15/52 (28.9%) for 84.35pts (+162.2%) in races worth £0-8k
  • 15/51 (29.4%) for 86.45pts (+169.5%) with 2/3 yr olds
  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 89.45pts (+279.5%) in 10-14 runner contests
  • 10/40 (25%) for 41.21pts (+103%) with female runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 65.9pts (+178.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 64.17pts (+200.6%) with maiden horses
  • 9/30 (30%) for 76.69pts (+255.6%) at Class 5
  • 6/24 (25%) for 37.56pts (+156.5%) on Good to Firm
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.9pts (+61.9%) when sent off in the 2/1 to 5/1 odds range
  • 4/16 (25%) for 16.31pts (+101.9%) in maiden races

...whilst his 2/3 yr olds running 10-14 runner contests worth £0-8k after 6-60 days rest are 10 from 18 (55.6% SR) for 100.13pts (+556.3% ROI) profit, including 7 from 13 (53.1%) with maidens, 5 from 7 (71.4%) with females and 3 from 4 (75% with female maidens...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Single @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 5.50am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.40 Newbury : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, went 2nd again over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, straight to the racecard...

A 3yr old gelding who comes here off the back of two good runs at Leicester already since the restart and was only beaten by an in-form filly (Rosa Gold, who has won comfortably again since) last time out nine days ago with the rest of the field over 4 lengths further back.

This contest looks marginally easier than that contest and takes place on a track where her trainer has a good record. That is documented clearly by the C1 & C5 icons above, the former of which is also shown in the report underneath the card, so lat's take a look at my "Chep Flat" angle in more detail...

The angle is essentially a group of seven trainers that I keep an eye out for here at Chepstow and Mick Channon makes the list, because since the start of 2017 campaign, his handicappers are...

from which those 48 are...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 52.91pts (+117.6%) in contests worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 38.91pts (+99.8%) at 6-25 days since last run
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.4pts (+40%) at an ISP below 5/1
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 16.2pts (+60%) as 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 41.56pts (+173.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/10 (60%) for 19.48pts (+194.8%) in July
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.12pts (+53.3%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.17pts (+84.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 3/11 (29.3%) for 15.79pts (+143.5%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs

...whilst those sent off shorter than 5/1 aiming for a prize of less than £4k just 6-25 days after they last ran are...

...and they include a winner (Queen of Silca) from the last horse to qualify for that angle, which was just six days ago and was also ridden by today's jockey, George Bass claiming 7lbs...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Thursday (although Bet365 were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.35 Ripon : Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 12/1 (Chased leaders, lost place over 1f out) - The market got this one spot on, I'm afraid.

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3½f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

On a tricky day for those who lean on statistical data to help form a bet, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with today's selection in the last race of the day.

Air Force Amy is a 4 yr old filly who looked like she needed the run eight days ago when weakening out of contention in the final furlong at Goodwood upon her return from a 255-day absence from the track.

Her sole victory to date was in a Class 5 flat handicap over a trip just 102 yards further than today and she takes that same slight drop back in trip from her last run, which should help her see the contest out.

Looking at her form and at the racecard in general, she's not an obvious pick, but the last couple of years have been good for her yard here at Windsor, especially with handicappers at least deemed not to be no hopers.

Numerically, I'm thinking of Mick Channon's handicappers who have been sent off in the Evens to 11/1 odds range since the start of the 2018 campaign, because they are...

...which is pretty impressive and with more than half of them making the frame, I'd at least expect a good run for my money. 33 runners isn't a lot to back blindly, but if you wanted to be more selective, then...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 11/27 (40.7%) for 59.52pts (+220.4%)
  • those sent off bigger than 3/1 are 10/27 (37%) for 65.23pts (+241.6%)
  • female runners are 4/12 (33.3%) for 27.56pts (+229.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.13pts (+130.5%)
  • and those racing in 4yo+ contests are 3/5 (60%) for 5.16pts (+103.3%)

...whilst those sent off bigger than 3/1 within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 57.19pts (+272.3% ROI) maintaining almost 85% of the original profits from less than 64% of the original bets by multiplying the original ROI by 1.33, including four winners from nine (44.4%) for 30.56pts (+339.5%) with female runners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Unibet, BetVictor* & Hills* (*the latter two don't go BOG until a little later this morning, but there's plenty of 11/2 BOG elsewhere) at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!