Posts

Early Season Turf Pointers

April trainers

With Cheltenham now a fading speck on the horizon our next scheduled stop is the cavalry charge of the Lincoln in only a few days time, writes Jon Shenton. The shackles of winter are off (hopefully), Spring has sprung, and the flat turf season is well and truly on the way.

It’s without doubt my favourite time of year, certainly in terms of the racing calendar. The promise of the long, warm summer nights and a plethora of punting challenges stokes the fires like no other.

Conventional wisdom is that bettors should tread very carefully in the opening few weeks of the season whilst form-lines are built. Whilst that might be true to an extent if you’re a pure race reader it is certainly of less relevance to the data driven approach that I primarily use.

Horses having long absences, an array of new talent on show and highly variable underfoot conditions all contribute to devilishly difficult puzzles. Data can be your friend and ally under these circumstances and it can give you an edge on the general population.

A sensible point to start would be evaluating trainer angles for April performance.

The below table shows the April numbers, sorted by A/E and only including the usual SP of 20/1 or shorter animals. All races since 2012 are analysed.

 

One can clearly delve into any of these further. It’s certainly of interest that the highly populated Fahey yard is profitable over a high volume of runners. The same applies to Gosden, O’Meara, Appleby (Charlie), Haggas and Beckett. If they’re delivering runners to the track in April, then these data give a degree of confidence that they are likely to be competitive.

In pole position, however, is the veteran trainer Mick Easterby. He will be 88 years-old at the end of this month! If at a similar age I’m lucky enough to be around, I’d be hugely disappointed to be still working (understatement!) so it surely shows the enthusiasm he has for the game. Those rich experiences over the years certainly seem to have been put to good use in getting the yard's runners blasting out of the stalls early.

The April output is impressive with an A/E of 1.61, a nice strike rate (19%) and an ROI of 41% is more than welcome.

Evaluating performance against SP there is no winner at 18/1 or 20/1 from 26 attempts so from an angle point of view I’m going to exclude those personally. I do realise entirely that this may be folly, mathematically you’d only expect 1-ish winner from 26 attempts at those odds. But given the number of angles I operate and the relatively high number of daily bets I’m always happy to be more selective and potentially leave a winner or two on the bench.

Taking the 16/1 (SP) or shorter only it leaves 129 runs, of which 123 are in handicaps of some description. The remaining half-dozen non-handicappers have failed to register a single win. It’s clearly a yard focussed more on handicap racing so I’m happy to trim the angle accordingly again.

I also want to understand if April performance is uncharacteristically positive against the rest of the year. It could be that the basis of this angle applies to other months.

The graph below effectively puts the notion of strong other periods of the year to bed. It overwhelmingly illustrates the peak month for Easterby is April, with spikes in both win and placed rates in the month. It’s generally downhill from there as the season progresses.

 

Finally, to understand the consistency of the potential angle, a check of performance by year is helpful. Doing so we get the following split:

 

29 wins from 123 runs, 1.79 A/E with a 78% ROI. That’ll do for me. With no fallow year since 2014 this goes into my active angles as one to follow. Ordinarily these should go through a bit of testing before committing, but where’s the fun in that? I’ll be live with this in April, trying to get early prices. A high volume, small stakes approach mitigates the risk to some degree and enhances the entertainment value exponentially!

Back Mick Easterby in April handicaps at 16/1 or less on turf

Your first 30 days for just £1

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Working down the list sequentially, the second-best performer in terms of A/E is John Quinn. The Yorkshire stable is a powerhouse of racing in the North. Around two thirds of his April runs are on relatively local Yorkshire tracks.
Starting with the April performance vs. rest of year this time we have the following by win strike rate:

 

On the chart I have marked the April data point with a red circle. Like Mick Easterby, it is clearly a landmark month for the stable.

A point of note, the March number is only representative of a handful of runners (15), and the same applies to November’s apparently phenomenal peak (17) so it’s easy ignore these months given the paucity of data.

Also, like the Easterby angle there is no winner at 18/1 to 20/1 so a small snip to the criteria to only take account of SP’s 16/1 or shorter is my personal choice. Looking at the annual performance there are two poor yyear, 2013 and 2014, which weirdly are also the same as Easterby. It might be that those were particularly cold or wet springs, leaving the horses a little short in their work, though that is no more than conjecture.

 

 

I’ve poked around looking for other trends or items of note with these data. In truth though, nothing stands out and there is usually little point in forcing it, such efforts usually leading to at least a degree of backfitting. Simple is best.

Back John Quinn runners at 16/1 or less on turf in April

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Maiden & Novices

The onset of a new season means an absolute battalion of untried, untested and unraced 2YO’s will all hit the track for the first time. Like a lot of readers I don’t generally play in this type of race. Paddock judging is out personally, aside from worldly insight such as “that’s a big horse” and “that one looks a bit fired up” I have nothing to offer in this field, though I very much respect those who can read the confirmation, maturity and fitness of these babies. I have limited sources (i.e. none) of yard and course chat so the only thing in my armoury is my old mate, data.

From 2012 to date there have been no less than 14,911 horses making their racetrack debuts on turf as two-year olds in maiden or novice races. Changes to the novice programme in 2017 do make individual analyses on Maidens or Novice races more difficult on a like for like basis which is the reason that I’ve compiled them together.

This time I’m going to evaluate yards with a high number of runners, searching for the good and the not so good. The relatively massive table below shows first time out trainer performance in maiden and novices from 2012 onwards. I have elected to leave an SP filter out of the equation for this data set. The logic behind that is with debutants you could argue that the market is more likely to get it wrong and big priced winners could be more prevalent. This may or may not be true but that is the rationale for leaving the data as “pure” as possible.

 

As you might expect, there are some wild variations in performance. Firstly, the ones to potentially avoid, out at least around which to be wary.

Messrs Bell, Stoute and Easterby (Tim not Mick!) have a quite frankly appalling record under these conditions. In fact, the volume of combined winners is of such paucity that I can add it up confidently in my head without consulting any technology.

41 wins from 743 runners (I did have to check the runner number with a calculator). A strike rate of just 5.6%, with a combined loss of about 46% in terms of ROI. Good luck with that!

Of course, we know that SMS famously nurtures his charges along at a careful pace, so it makes complete sense for him to be here. The others are possibly more surprising. Geegeez Gold is of huge assistance in alerting you to these red flags on the trainer icon on the racecard, showing FTO performance of that trainer for the last two years.

Back to the macro-level data in the table relating to the last 6 years. The only trainers eking out a profit in the list are John Gosden and Andrew Balding. Gosden has the most impressive strike rate, 18.6%, on the table too. I must confess, I did find this a tad surprising so with a degree of curiosity I investigated it further.

Zooming in on monthly performance is logical in my mind. The early season calendar is rife with sprints. Short distance blasts are not something you’d ordinarily associate Johnny G with so might expect performance to be less positive early in the season in maidens/novices;

Sure enough, volume of runners, strike rate and ROI all improve as we  move into and through through the hot summer (ha ha). Indeed, Too Darn Hot (August), Cracksman (October) and Coronet (September) all prevailed on their debut run in recent years.

In general terms you might think that Gosden’s strong hand of 2YO’s will be focussed towards the future, and specifically their 3YO campaigns. In fact, it’s quite common that he waits until his charges are three before giving them their first run: La Ti Dar is perhaps the best recent case in point.

To be honest, despite knowing all this there is not enough here to generate a sufficiently strong angle for me. I have evaluated race class, sex of horse and a number of other variables but there is nothing of huge significance. That said, I’d always be very mindful of a Gosden debutant once we get beyond the summer solstice and maybe play on that basis, but it’s certainly not for me in terms of a discreet “system” to run with.

Given the sheer heft of runners (633) and the worthy A/E attainment (0.99) it would be slightly remiss not to comment on the Fahey operation a bit further. In a similar way to Gosden it’s hard to find a robust angle to recommend although there are some clues and pointers worth drawing out.

Firstly, the earlier in the season the better as the graph illustrates, April and May are very strong in comparison to the rest of the year.

 

There is also interest when evaluating at the SP’s of all the stable's Maiden and Novice runs. The line graph below illustrates the cumulative profit or loss position by SP. In basic terms it shows that it is most profitable if Fahey’s first time out animals have been backed to 4/1 or shorter. Virtually every banding bigger than that is loss making.

 

Backing all 4/1 or shorter runners would result in a £26 profit to a £1 level stake (represented by the green arrow on the graph), whereas backing all 9/2 or greater would return a £97 loss (red arrow on the graph). We know two things about Fahey Maiden and Novice performance. Firstly, April and May performance is good. Secondly, horses at 4/1 or shorter are profitable. So, if we take April/May runners at 4/1 or shorter at SP I’d be optimistic we’ll find a reasonable angle. The table below gives us our answer:

There we have it. A small number of prospective bets, and at 4/1 or shorter it should be relatively low risk if unspectacular. It’s not really my sort of usual angle or bet (I tend to favour Hollywood odds long shots) but if you are inclined to have a bet in a maiden and novice race a short priced backed Fahey charge in the spring wouldn't be a bad place to start.

Back Richard Fahey First time out horses at 4/1 or shorter in Maiden/Novice races in April and May

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I hope in the above I've offered a few potential pointers for success at the start of the British flat turf season. Do feel free to play around with Query Tool on some of the other names in the big tables, and leave a comment if you find anything of note.

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Florencio @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (In touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Soft ground, worth £5434 to the winner...

Why?

A 3yr old gelding dropping in class, returning to a track he has run well on previously, Conditions shouldn't trouble him and he gets on well with his jockey.

Numerically this translates as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two previous outings here at Hamilton and he was a runner-up (beaten by just a short head) on his only prior run on soft ground. He has two wins and a place from four efforts with Nathan Evans in the saddle and his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 handicap runs includes a 1 from 1 at this course and distance.

If that's not enough to convince you, then his stablemates also go well at this venue, with Mick Easterby saddling up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for 11.4pts (+45.6% ROI) here over the last four years, including...

  • males at 6 from 20 (30%) for 11.9pts (+59.5%)
  • Nathan Evans is 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 5.22pts (+34.8%)
  • over this 8.5f course and distance : 4/7 (57.1%) for 12pts (+171.7%)
  • and after a break of 1 to 2 months : 3/4 (75%) for 15.16pts (+379%)

Nathan Evans + males over 8.5/9 furlongs = 3 from 5 960%) for 6.18pts (+123.6% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record producing 4.66pts from the one that ran after a break of 45-60 days.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Florencio @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (In touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m½f on Soft ground, worth £5434 to the winner...

Why?

A 3yr old gelding dropping in class, returning to a track he has run well on previously, Conditions shouldn't trouble him and he gets on well with his jockey.

Numerically this translates as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two previous outings here at Hamilton and he was a runner-up (beaten by just a short head) on his only prior run on soft ground. He has two wins and a place from four efforts with Nathan Evans in the saddle and his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 handicap runs includes a 1 from 1 at this course and distance.

If that's not enough to convince you, then his stablemates also go well at this venue, with Mick Easterby saddling up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for 11.4pts (+45.6% ROI) here over the last four years, including...

  • males at 6 from 20 (30%) for 11.9pts (+59.5%)
  • Nathan Evans is 5 from 15 (33.3%) for 5.22pts (+34.8%)
  • over this 8.5f course and distance : 4/7 (57.1%) for 12pts (+171.7%)
  • and after a break of 1 to 2 months : 3/4 (75%) for 15.16pts (+379%)

Nathan Evans + males over 8.5/9 furlongs = 3 from 5 960%) for 6.18pts (+123.6% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record producing 4.66pts from the one that ran after a break of 45-60 days.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.00 Lingfield : Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, led towards finish, headed close home by a flying finisher)

Next up is Friday's...

7.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Robero @ 13/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 3,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo+) on tapeta worth £9704 to the winner...

Why?

It wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this 6 yr old gelding might have needed the run when last seen being well beaten at Haydock six days ago. The mitigating circumstances were a 168 day absence, unsuitably soft ground and racing at a higher class than today. He's now back down at Class 3 and back on the All-Weather for the first time in ten months racing on a track where he's 1 from 2, having previously won over course and distance.

Since the start of 2013, his trainer Mick Easterby is 30 from 159 (18.9% SR) for 92.5pts (+58.2% ROI) with his handicappers turned back out just 4 to 7 days after their last run, from which...

  • males are 28/135 (20.7%) for 100.8pts (+74.7%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 27/105 (25.7%) for 89.5pts (+85.3%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 16/98 (16.3%) for 74.5pts (+76%)
  • those unplaced LTO : 17/92 (18.5%) for 93.4pts (+101.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 25.2pts (+57.3%)
  • 6 yr olds are 8/31 (25.8%) for 12.3pts (+39.6%)
  • those ridden by a 5lb claimer : 4/19 (21.1%) for 19.1pts (+100.8%)
  • at Class 3 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 20.6pts (+114.7%)
  • and on tapeta : 4/18 (22.2%) for 11pts (+61.3%)

In addition to the above, Mr Easterby's runners are 19 from 112 (17% SR) for 56.1pts (+50.1% ROI) profit in handicaps on the A/W here at Newcastle, with those failing to make the frame last time out stepping up to win 12 of 76 (15.8%) for 64.9pts (+85.4%), whilst today's jockey Harrison Shaw has ridden 24 of those handicappers, winning 5 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 29.7pts at an attractive ROI of some 123.6%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Robero @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betbright & Hills at 5.30pm on Thursday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2017

Tuesday's Result :

7.00 Chelmsford : Udontdodou @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Held up mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong, no impression.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance a week ago in an amateur riders' contest, showing he can get the job done without some wily old pro cajoling him along, which is just as well as this race is for apprentice jockeys!

He's up 6lbs for that win LTO, but today's rider takes 5 off, so we shouldn't be weighted out of contention at least, but I'm really more interested in how this race fits trainer Mick Easterby's MO, as this horse flagged up in several different parts of my database when I was compiling my daily shortlist, so here goes...

Let's start with Mr Easterby's recent record at this track, shall we? Well, over the last 3 (including this one) seasons, his Class 5/6 handicappers are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 21.45pts (+58% ROI) profit here in North Yorkshire, from which...

  • males are 6/23 (26.1%) for 10.9pts (+47.4%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 15/2 are 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.25pts (+127.6%)
  • those last seen 2 to 15 days ago are 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.73pts (+115.2%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 5/10 (50%) for 16.05pts (+160.5%)
  • over this 1m4f C&D : 2/4 (50%) for 9.26pts (+231.5%)
  • and LTO winners are also 2/4 (50%), but for 8.93pts (+223.3%)

Which in itself is fairly compelling, but let's add some more meat to the bones by looking at the yard's quick returners ie those who last raced just 3 to 7 days earlier and over the last two years, such runners are 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.8% ROI) : another set of impressive figures, which include...

  • handicappers at 18/75 (24%) for 55.8pts (+74.4%)
  • males at 17/65 (26.2%) for 59.5pts (+91.5%)
  • those priced 9/4 to 12/1 are 18/52 (34.6%) for 78.8pts (+151.5%)
  • at class 6 : 4/16 (25%) for 15.84pts (+99%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/12 (25%) for 3.15pts (+26.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/14 (35.7%) for 14.8pts (+105.6%)

But wait, there's yet more to come...for, in handicaps since 2010, Mick Easterby's runners priced at 11/4 to 8/1 who won LTO and are now running at a venue where they have previously won over course and distance = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+50.6% ROI), and of those 35 runners, those who won over C&D LTO are 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.9pts (+60.5%)

And finally (!) before I go...as this is an apprentices' race, the Easterby handicappers ridden by a 5lb claimer at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 37/215 (17.2% SR) for 113.5pts (+52.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which...

  • at Class 6 : 14/37 (37.8%) for 82.1pts (+221.9&%)
  • LTO winners are 10/35 (28.6%) for 43.7pts (+124.7%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO : 5/17 (29.4%) for 12.3pts (+72.2%)
  • here at Catterick : 6/12 (50%) for 31.2pts (+259.6%)
  • running over the same C&D as LTO win : 2/5 (40%) for 3.37pts (+67.4%)

...all of which points us to...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 9/2 BOG which was available in at least half a dozen places at 6.00pm on Monday, whilst those able to do should grab the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Catterick...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st April 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.00 Taunton : Ujagar @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Held up rear division, headway before 2 out, kept on same pace

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bowson Fred5/1 BOG

Why?

So, we've got a 5 yr old gelding with 5 wins under his belt at this trip already and who has also been ridden to victory three times by today's jockey, 3lb claimer, Nathan Evans, who has been in fine form of late, winning eight times and placing on a further two occasions from his 26 rides over the last fortnight. Many of those rides have been for today's trainer Mick Easterby, whose horses have 10 wins and 5 places from 31 in that same two week period.

The Easterby / Evans alliance is one to be reckoned with nowadays, as together they are 58/372 (15.6% SR) for 67.1pts (+18% ROI) in handicap contests and those returns from blind unfiltered betting are excellent. We can (and will!) however seek to reduce the number of bets placed whilst increasing the ROI as follows....

  • horses finishing in the first 4 home LTO are 37/191 (19.4%) for 36.2pts (+19%)
  • those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 23/110 (20.9%) for 25.2pts (+23%)
  • over the minimum 5f sprint : 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.2pts (+82.2%)
  • and on good to firm ground : 10/53 (18.9%) for 35.2pts (+66.5%)

The above stat regarding Nathan's 3lb claim isn't surprising at all, as since 2009, the Easterby horses that have been ridden by a 3lb claimer in Flat (turf) handicaps at odds of 10/1 and shorter have won 22 of 73 (30.1% SR) for profits of 79.1pts (+108.3% ROI), including...

  • those who failed to win LTO : 20/59 (33.9%) for 80.9pts (+137.2%)
  • those who last raced 6-45 days ago are 15/55 (27.3%) for 55.7pts (+101.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd to 7th 6-45 days earlier are 13/37 (35.1%) for 56.9pts (+153.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/27 (37%) for 47.1pts (+174.5%)
  • and those ridden by Nathan Evans are 8/17 (47.1%) for 35.6pts (+209.2%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Bowson Fred5/1 BOG which was on offer with Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.30 Carlisle : Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Handy until before 2nd, mid-division, headway approaching 11th, stayed on one pace from 4 out.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

6.25 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Babouska @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 114 in her last three starts, having won on her first attempt at 9.5f two starts ago, before drop back to 1m saw her defeated LTO 13 days ago. She now comes back up in trip by a couple of furlongs and a similar run to that effort over 9.5f should be enough again today. She's already 2/4 at this grade and also 2/4 under today's jockey Nathan Evans.

Trained by Mick Easterby, who is 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 27.6pts (+69% ROI) in handicaps here at Chelmsford since the start of 2016, including...

  • those ridden by Nathan Evans = 8/30 (26.7%) for 15.2pts (+50.6%)
  • top 4 LTO = 11/29 (37.9%) for 31.4pts (+108.4%)
  • 1-20 days since last run = 10/27 (37%) for 24.7pts (+91.3%)

AND...those ridden by Nathan Evans, 1-20 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 21.1pts (+110.8%), with those priced in the 5/2 to 6/1 range winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 27.1pts (+208.2%).

Also, since the start of 2015, the Easterby A/W runners stepping up in trip by 0.5f to 2.5f are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 37.6pts (+41.7% ROI), from which...

  • handicappers are 16/76 (21.1%) for 51.6pts (+67.8%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 8/40 (20%) for 34.2pts (+85.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 44.87pts (+131.8%)
  • 3rd or 4th LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 40.2pts (+223.3%)
  • females are 3/18 (16.7%) for 26.1pts (+144.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.05pts (+23.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Babouska @ 7/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2017

Friday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh: Danceintothelight @ 6/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Made all, soon clear, ridden before 2 out, kept on well to win by 4.5 lengths.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swansway @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago under today's jockey Nathan Evans and he's been very consistent of late on the A/W, making the frame in each of his last four runs.

He's up 4lbs for that win, but he was slow away last time, yet stayed on well to win by a length and a half, so with a better start this time, should be able to handle the extra weight.

He's trained by Mick Easterby whose LTO winners are 43/214 (20.1% SR) for 39.7pts (+18.6% ROI) over the last four years, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 43/209 (20.6%) for 44.7pts (+21.4%)
  • males are 39/186 (21%) for 47.3pts (+25.4%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 34/125 (27.2%) for 65.7pts (+52.5%)
  • over the last two years : 24/119 (20.2%) for 37.5pts (+31.5%)
  • those who won by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 21/91 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+62%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 9/51 (17.7%) for 11.1pts (+21.8%)
  • and at Class 6 : 7/29 (24.1%) for 19.4pts (+66.9%)

AND...if you just backed the male handicappers priced at 9/4 to 8/1 over the last 4 yrs, you'd have had 30 winners from 102 (29.4% SR) and profits of 68.2pts at an ROI of 66.9%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Swansway @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, BetVictor and Hills at 9.45pm on Friday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Newcastle 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Ludlow : Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 - Disputed lead until lost place before 4 out, soon weakened

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old gelding was a winner here at Chelmsford last time out, five weeks ago and was so dominant that he was eased right down and still won by more then 3 lengths. That was over 7f, but he seemed to have plenty left, suggesting the extra step up to a mile should be fine, especially when he's already won three times at this trip.

Mick Easterby's LTO winners have won again on 41 of 204 handicap runs (20.1% SR) since the start of 2013, generating level stakes profits of 40.7pts (+19.9% ROI) along the way, including...

  • males winning 38 of 178 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+29%)
  • those who won by 1-10 lengths LTO are 29/114 (25.4%) for 73.4pts (+64.4%)
  • those aged 6 or 7 are 15/63 (23.8%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/45 (15.6%) for 8.06pts (+17.9%)
  • and those whose LTO win was 31-60 days ago are 11/38 (28.9%) for 52.1pts (+137.2%)

And if that wasn't enough, the yard's form at this venue this year is excellent with 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR), all in handicap contests, producing profits of 27.6pts at an ROI of 78.8%, broken down as follows...

  • males are 12/30 (40%) for 32.6pts (+108.6%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 7/25 (28%) for 15.1pts (+60.5%)
  • aged 5-7 : 10/16 (62.5%) for 37.9pts (+236.9%)
  • 3yo+ contests : 5/15 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+70%)
  • LTO winners : 6/12 (50%) for 20.34pts (+169.5%)
  • over this 1m C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.61pts (+95.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.64pts (+58%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Curzon Line at 5/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 5/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Yarmouth : Mukaabra @ 3/1 BOG (12/5 after 20p R4) 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leaders, effort to chase winner over 1f out, one pace final furlong) And another well backed placer!

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bajan Rebel at 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old mare has been somewhat of a revelation since returning to action in April of this year after a break of some 30 weeks. Her 6 runs this year have seen her finish 113123 (1123 over this 7f trip) and she was only narrowly beaten in both of her last two encounters and both at a higher grade than she faces today.

Overall, she has 3 wins from 8 rides on good to soft or worse, she's 3/12 at the trip, 2/6 under today's jockey plus those two placed efforts and she has won on her only previous run over this course and distance.

Furthermore, jockey Nathan Evans is 22/118 (18.6% SR) for 35.6pts (+30.2% ROI) when riding for Mick Easterby this year, with the following of interest...

  • in handicaps : 22/113 (19.5%) for 40.6pts (+36%)
  • when Nathan claims 5lbs : 14/75 (18.7%) for 27.4pts (+36.5%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 18/71 (25.4%) for 63.8pts (+89.9%)
  • on the Flat : 14/71 (19.7%) for 30.3pts (+42.7%)
  • on horses rested for just 3 to 15 days : 13/49 (26.5%) for 31.7pts (+64.8%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 11/2 are 17/48 (35.4%) for 36.5pts (+76.1%)

...so, the play is a 1pt win bet on Bajan Rebel at 9/2 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms showing that price at 7.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Bangor : Slidecheck @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/1 Held up mid-division, headway from 4 out, went 3rd from 2 out, kept on and lost 3rd place close home. I'm clearly not doing too well with the summer jumpers at present, so...

...Friday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG.

Why?

This 5yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago off a mark of 63, but failed to cope properly with a 5lb rise in weight a week later, only managing to finish third, a length and three quarters off the pace. He's up another 1lb for that run (I never really get how horses are penalised for losing), but the booking of the more than useful 5lb claimer Nathan Evans puts the horse on a very workable mark today.

Add in the fact that he's already won over this 7f trip on good to form ground and confidence starts to build. Some people don't like backing horses ridden by claimers, but certain trainers are very adept at using these jockeys and Mick Easterby certainly places them well, as since the start of 2012, 5lb claimers have won 24 of 170 handicaps (14.1% SR) for profits of 35.8pts (+21.1% ROI),

That's a decent return from blindly backing all runners, but better results can be achieved by using any of the following logical filters...

  • those priced 6/4 to 14/1 are 24/121 (19.8% SR) for 84.8pts (+70.1% ROI)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 16/98 (16.3% SR) for 38.6pts (+39.3% ROI)
  • at Class 5/6 : 19/93 (20.4% SR) for 83.3pts (+89.6% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 12/52 (23.01% SR) for 31.2pts (+60% ROI)
  • over trips of 5-7 furlongs : 9/45 (20% SR) for 39.5pts (+87.9% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 66pts (+157% ROI)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI)
  • and those last seen 26-45 days ago are 5/34 (14.7% SR) for 23.8pts (+70% ROI)

AND...Class 5/6 Flat (turf) handicappers priced at 6/4 to 14/1 are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 78.5pts (+160.3% ROI)

In addition to the above, 3 to 5 yr olds racing on the Flat over 5f to a mile 16 to 60 days after finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th and were also winners two starts ago (ie form of 12, 13 or 14) are 247/1384 (17.9% SR) for 320.3pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of the 2012 season, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 3 to 5 weeks ago are 132/716 (18.4% SR) for 207.6pts (+29% ROI)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 97/479 (20.3% SR) for 169.8pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 36/182 (19.8% SR) for 108.8pts (+59.8% ROI)
  • and here at Musselburgh : 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 12.75pts (+45.5% ROI)

AND...those racing on good to firm, three to five weeks after their last run are 53/252 (21% SR) for 117.2pts (+46.5% ROI)

So the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Qaffaal at 11/4 BOG which was available with either BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, who were the best available at 8.00pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

4.35 Carlisle : Captain Redbeard @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, front pair clear 5th, went 2nd before jumping left 2 out, no chance with winner, lost 2 places on flat)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bosham @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

If you want a quick and easy, yet profitable way of backing horses on the A/W, you could do worse than blindly backing Mick Easterby's male handicappers. Since the start of 2009, these runners have won 92 of 550 races (16.7% SR) for 161.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 29.3% and those are tremendous figures indeed.

But using those numbers in respect of this particular race shows us that Mick's runners are strong in these contests, as they are...

  • 74/469 (15.8% SR) for 164.3pts (+35% ROI) carrying 8-6 to 9-9
  • 81/445 (18.2% SR) for 200.9pts (+45.2% ROI) running 4 to 60 days after their last effort
  • 67/394 (17% SR) for 124.8pts (+31.7% ROI) on Polytrack
  • 46/289 (15.9% SR) for 153.2pts (+53% ROI) in fields of 11 to 13 runners
  • 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 79.5pts (+80.3% ROI) as 6yr olds
  • 6/29 (20.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+50.5% ROI) ridden by Nathan Evans
  • 4/16 (25% SR) for 5.9pts (+36.7% ROI) here at Chelmsford

And in Bosham, the team have a horse well suited to conditions faced here. His overall record of 7 wins from 32 is decent enbough, but closer inspection of his record shows he's never been out of the first four home from nine starts on the A/W, winning six of the nine! And from that 6 from 9 record, he has achieved the following...

  • 5 from 8 in blinkers
  • 4 from 7 with today's jockey
  • 4 from 6 in fields of 8 to 12 runners
  • 3 from 5 here at Chelmsford
  • 3 from 5 as a 6yr old
  • 3 from 4 with a tongue tie
  • 3 from 4 at this trip
  • 3 from 4 carrying less than 9-0
  • 3 from 4 in blinkers and tongue tied

And my recommended bet, based on the above data and prices available at 7.15pm is...

A 1pt bet on Bosham and that's at 5/1 BOG pretty much everywhere, so to pick your preferred bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Trainer Stats: 4th June 2013

pERRETT

Amanda Awesome At Present

Andy Newton’s got six flat handlers to look out for this week on his 'HOT TRAINERS' list. Read more

York Trainer Stats


Andy Newton gives you his quick-fire trainers to note and a few you might want to avoid at this week’s York Ebor meeting..... Read more

Trainer Trends – 22nd Sept

Mick Easterby

Mick Easterby Will Be Praying For A Change of Fortune

It’s that time of the week again as Andy Newton highlights which trainers have been hitting the high notes, while he’s also got a big name handler whose runners might be best avoided at present. Read more